Saturday, June 20, 2026

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline: an African dream that could reshape world energy markets

After two decades of delays, the colossal trans-Saharan gas megaproject to export Nigerian gas to Europe via Niger and Algeria is back in the spotlight with this month's announcement that construction of the Algerian section had rebegun. The pipeline, once completed, could fundamentally reshape Europe's energy map.

Issued on: 20/06/2026 - FRANCE24
By:
David RICH
Tahar HANI

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline will connect Algeria and Nigeria, two gas-producing powerhouses that together account for more than half of Africa's natural gas production and reserves. © AFP, STR

After several false starts, work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) officially restarted in early June amid the recent thawing of relations between Niger and Algeria. The megaproject linking Nigeria with the two countries began with an initial construction phase in early April in Algeria's Adrar region.

Over 4,000 kilometres long, the pipeline will enable the transport of Nigerian gas through Niger and Algeria, where it can then be exported to European markets, namely through Italy and Spain by way of the Mediterranean Sea.

“This project is not at all new, but it’s ramping up,” said Brahim Oumansour, associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS). "Algeria and Niger have chosen to put their differences aside for a common goal, in a geopolitical context that is favourable to them."

Long road to construction

The project of a pipeline between Algeria and Europe has existed since the 1980s. Since then, the project has experienced a long and winding road, with long pauses as it was relegated to the drawers of ministries and research departments. Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria first signed a deal in 2009 to “define the project” – with the first delivery of gas scheduled for 2015. After several years of delays, the project was revived in 2022 with the signing of a memorandum of understanding in Algiers.

“The feasibility studies for this gigantic project and the issue of financing took a long time,” said Algerian political scientist Hasni Abidi. “The three partner companies [Algeria’s Sonatrach, Nigeria’s NNPC and Niger’s Sonidep] had to find a financial arrangement. Niamey didn’t have the financial resources necessary for the construction.”

The project was also delayed because of diplomatic tensions such as those caused by Niger’s 2003 coup d’état which created a rift in relations between Niamey and its partners.

In mid-February of this year, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune welcomed the head of Niger’s junta, Abdourahamane Tiani, on an official visit in Algiers during which both sides hailed their “brotherhood”. The diplomatic engagement allowed for the revival of the ambitious project, which gained traction amid the energy supply shock created by the Middle East war and the destruction of energy infrastructure in the Gulf countries.
Corridor between two African gas giants

The TSGP's ambition is to connect two natural gas powerhouses. Algeria is the leading producer in Africa, and Nigeria, which has the continent's largest untapped reserves (6 billion cubic meters, equivalent to a quarter of Qatar's reserves), is the third-largest. When combined, the two countries account for over half of Africa's natural gas production and reserves.

"This is a very ambitious project, and one that will reshape the landscape of regional energy business," said Abidi.

Dubbed the "project of the century" in Africa, the 4,128-kilometre-long pipeline begins in Nigeria’s Warri City and ends in Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel in the northern Sahara.

On a map, the pipeline appears as a nearly vertical line, with 1,000 kilometres running north through Nigeria, 840 kilometres through Niger and 2,300 kilometers through Algeria.

Some 1,800 kilometres still need to be built: 100 in Nigeria, 700 in Niger and 1,000 in Algeria.

Construction on the Algerian portion was officially launched on June 4 during a ceremony in the country's southern Aoulef region attended by the three participating countries' energy ministers.

Nigeria is scheduled to begin construction on its portion in early 2027, according to its minister of petroleum.

The Africa Atlantic Gas Pipeline championed by Morocco includes 13 countries. © France Médias Monde Graphic Studio

Financial and geostrategic godsend

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline will enable the transport of around 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Nigeria to Europe via Algeria with its existing Transmet and Medgaz pipelines, which lead to Italy and Spain.

This volume represents about 11 percent of Europe’s annual imports of natural gas (270 billion cubic metres in 2025).

Other quantities of natural gas will be liquefied at Algeria's Arzew and Skikda refineries before being exported to Europe in ships in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

"Algeria wants to reinforce its status as a reliable energy partner for Europe, but its capacities are limited. The partnership with Nigeria should allow it to increase its volumes to meet European demand," said researcher Brahim Oumansour.

One of Africa’s poorest countries, Niger intends to take advantage of transit rights for the gas and attract new infrastructure and energy investments, which create jobs.

Obstacles and limitations

Despite the project's relaunch, several obstacles jeopardise its ambitious timeline which aims for completion by 2029.

The cost of the pipeline’s construction was approximately $13 billion when it launched in 2009. Since then, the cost has increased to around $20 billion, some energy sector experts estimate. The increasing cost of raw materials and the challenging desert terrain are largely to blame. The countries participating in the project have not yet disclosed the project's current budget.

African and international banks might lend their support to the Algerian and Nigerian investments, but no confirmation has been given thus far.

The pipeline also has security issues since the infrastructure crosses zones, particularly in northern Nigeria and Niger, where armed groups and trans-border smuggling networks are active.

Competition from Morocco

Another major gas project spearheaded by Morocco, Algeria's main regional rival, could overshadow the TSGP. The Africa Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) is a 6,000-kilometre-long project which includes 13 countries. The pipeline connects Nigeria to Morocco with the same objective as the TSGP: to export Nigerian gas to European markets.

The cost of the project is estimated at $25 billion.

Route of the Africa Atlantic gas pipeline, as proposed by Morocco, which includes 13 countries. © France Médias Monde Graphic Design Studio

“These two projects are in competition because they are aiming for the same customer,” Oumansour said. “Algeria is ahead, since the trans-Saharan project has made more progress. The Moroccan project depends on the construction of complex offshore structures and many more partners.”

These rival projects could both eventually win over the European market. The demand for natural gas in the European Union is higher than ever since the bloc turned its back on Russia for invading Ukraine. Iran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz also reinforced European political will to strengthen nearby energy partnerships with Africa.

Yet the volatility of energy prices remains a significant risk factor for the viability of these large projects, Abidi said.

"These are colossal investments over the medium and long term. The price of gas has increased significantly, but it could fall again if Iran enters the gas market or if the war in Ukraine ends. The demand is currently there – but nothing guarantees the financial success of these projects."

This article has been translated from the original in French.

Over a billion children exposed to three or more climate hazards UN report shows

More than one billion children face at least three overlapping climate hazards, the UN childrens' agency Unicef has warned, while highlighting the disproportionate impact in some regions of the world.

Issued on: 16/06/2026 - RFI

Children displaced by floods play in a relief camp, in Jaffarabad, a district in the southwestern Baluchistan province, Pakistan, 2022. © Zahid Hussain / AP

For the report, the UN agency cross-referenced data showing where the roughly 2.4 billion children on the planet live with the geographic distribution of the eight most common climate impacts. They are coastal flooding, river flooding, drought, tropical storms, heat waves – at least three days above a high temperature threshold, which varies by country – extreme heat, wildfires and sandstorms.

The report primarily focuses on the 1.1 billion children who are exposed to at least three risks, with the most common combination being drought, extreme heat (above 35 degrees Celsius) and heat waves.

That combination affects some 296 million children, including 74 million in Nigeria, 34 million in Pakistan and 32 million in India.

The number of children in this three-or-more category has increased sharply over the past 20 years.

Children are 'first victims' of climate change, French rights watchdog warns

Almost all children – some 2.3 billion – are exposed to at least one risk. Two billion are exposed to at least two, while 364 million face at least four.

Of the 123,000 children exposed to seven or more climate hazards, some 46,000 are in Myanmar.

"Children are at the forefront of the impact of climate change," said Unicef chief Catherine Russell.

As for the worst place for a child, "there isn't a super short answer," one of the report authors, Tom Slaymaker, told AFP.

"But they're not all equal," Slaymaker said. "We do see some hot spots... it's really concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia."
Chad's children at risk

Countries with large populations of children – including Bangladesh, India, Nigeria and Pakistan – are at the top of the list for the number of children exposed to at least three hazards.

But in sheer percentage terms, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa – particularly the Sahel – have the largest proportion of children affected by hazards. The impacts are often exacerbated by governments' inability to cope with climate hazards.

Chad, for example, faces a humanitarian crisis with limited access to water, electricity and food. According to the report, more than 95 percent of kids in the country are exposed to at least three hazards – one of the highest proportions in the world.

'A vicious cycle that exhausts bodies and minds': the human cost of climate change

Other particularly vulnerable countries include 39 island states that face challenges such as limited freshwater, import dependence, and inability to easily shelter elsewhere after a disaster such as a hurricane.

No country is truly spared, the report shows.

"In many countries, there will be small pockets of the population which are not exposed to these hazards," Slaymaker said. "They tend to be in the northern hemisphere, particularly so, parts of Scandinavia."

But that is because the report looks only at the eight most common risks worldwide, he stressed, noting that children in those countries may face other threats not covered in the report, such as melting glaciers or thawing permafrost.

(with AFP)

BIO WARFARE

France ramps up fight against tiger mosquitoes after record outbreaks

France is bracing for another summer of dengue and chikungunya risk, as climate change helps the disease-carrying tiger mosquito spread north and authorities test new ways to curb its advance.

Issued on: 17/06/2026 - RFI
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The tiger mosquito, which can transmit dengue, chikungunya and Zika, is now present across most of France, where researchers are testing new ways to reduce its numbers. AP - Rick Bowmer

The tiger mosquito, known scientifically as Aedes albopictus, can transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya. First detected in mainland France in 2004, it is now present across most of the country.

Public health authorities recorded an unprecedented 809 locally transmitted cases of chikungunya and 30 locally transmitted cases of dengue in France in 2025.

The same year also saw 2,398 imported chikungunya cases and 81 local transmission clusters.

One effort to reduce the insect's numbers is taking shape in Montpellier, where French startup Terratis breeds male mosquitoes before sterilising and releasing them.

Rising temperatures in Europe open door to spread of chikungunya virus

Mosquitoes against mosquitoes

"After sterilisation, we release them into urban areas. They look for females and mate, but when the females lay eggs, those eggs are empty," Terratis co-founder Clélia Oliva told the French news agency AFP.

Male mosquitoes are exposed to X-rays in batches of 400,000, making them infertile. The aim is to flood an area with sterile males so fewer viable eggs are produced and the population gradually declines.

First developed 50 years ago for agriculture, the sterile insect technique is now being adapted to fight mosquitoes as disease-carrying species continue to multiply.

Terratis produces 1.5 million sterile mosquitoes a week and aims to reach 40 million within two years.

"This year, we've seen a surge in orders," Oliva said, citing strong interest from cities struggling to control mosquito populations.

France sees record spike in chikungunya cases as tiger mosquito spreads

Scaling up

"In principle, the sterile mosquito technique works," said Frédéric Simard, head of the Institute of Research for Development in Montpellier, which helped launch Terratis.

Major challenges remain, including increasing production, reducing costs and adapting the method to different regions so it can be competitive and sustainable, Simard said.

"If I had to compare it, I'd say we're at the iPhone 1.0 stage," he said.

Other approaches are also being used. In parts of South America and Asia, mosquitoes are infected with a bacterium called Wolbachia, which prevents them from transmitting certain viruses.

In Brazil, one facility produces as many as 100 million eggs a week using the method.

No single solution will be enough, Simard told AFP. "The Wolbachia technique, sterilisation, traps, insecticides – all of this needs to be combined," he said.

Wolbachia is an "emergency response" to immediate health risks, while sterilisation forms part of a longer-term strategy.

Cost and regulation

In Montpellier's Malbosc district, a trial that began in August 2025 is continuing this year.

"Twice a week, we release 100,000 mosquitoes across 31 locations," Terratis employee Florian Vernichon told AFP.

The programme remains expensive. The current experiment is estimated to cost around €70,000.

"We don't have the means to finance releases on the scale of an entire city, and we believe this should be handled by the state and regional health agencies," said Montpellier deputy mayor Stéphane Jouault.

The approach also faces a regulatory hurdle in France. Sterile mosquitoes fall into a grey area because they are neither biocides, designed to control harmful organisms, nor genetically modified organisms. The uncertainty could discourage private investment.

Early results have been encouraging. In Brive-la-Gaillarde, where Terratis released 11 million sterile mosquitoes in May 2025, half of the eggs ready to hatch in spring were sterile, Oliva said.

The proportion is expected to reach 90 percent by the end of summer 2026.

The goal is not to eradicate the species entirely, but to reduce its numbers significantly and sustainably.

(with newswires)

Burnham wins key UK poll, paving way for bid to challenge PM Starmer

Wigan (United Kingdom) (AFP) – Veteran UK Labour politician Andy Burnham emphatically won a crunch by-election on Friday, securing a parliamentary seat and clearing the way for a widely expected leadership challenge against beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Issued on: 19/06/2026 - RFI

A member of the Loony Party watches as Labour party's Andy Burnham speaks after winning the Makerfield by-election, 19 June, 2026. AP Photo/Jon Super - Jon Super

Burnham, a former government minister who has been Greater Manchester mayor since 2017, ensured his return to parliament by easily beating the hard-right Reform UK party's candidate in the Makerfield constituency in northwest England.

The 56-year-old longtime figure in centre-left Labour wants to replace Starmer as party leader and prime minister, and needed to win the high-stakes vote to be in a position to trigger such a contest.

If Starmer does leave office this year, then Britain will get its seventh prime minister in 10 years.

"I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change," Burnham said in his acceptance speech after securing nearly 55 percent of the vote, beating Reform's Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 ballots. Turnout was a historically high 59 percent.

"We must get it right," he added, saying his victory could be a "turning point" for the country.

Starmer congratulated Burnham on X, saying voters "chose Labour's campaign of hope and optimism over division and hate".

The prime minister was expected to speak to media during a public appearance in London Friday morning.

In office since July 2024, Starmer has been clinging to power since Labour suffered a drubbing in polls in England, Scotland and Wales last month.

Some 77,000 people were eligible to cast ballots © Oli SCARFF / AFP

'King of the North'

Starmer has been rocked by several policy U-turns and a scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington.

Dozens of Labour MPs have called on Starmer to quit, and several ministers have resigned, as national surveys suggest Reform is set to win the next general election, expected in 2029.

But the 63-year-old ex-lawyer has refused to quit, insisting his landslide election victory over the Conservatives 23 months ago gave him a five-year mandate to govern.

Amid growing impatience within the ruling party, now-former Labour MP Josh Simons stood down in Makerfield so that Burnham could try to return to parliament and run for leader.

Kenyon (L) posing with Reform leader Farage © Darren Staples / AFP

The unprecedented move thrust the little-known political district into the spotlight, handing its electorate of roughly 77,000 people an outsized say in influencing Starmer's fate.

Surveys show that Burnham – nicknamed the "King of the North" for winning three consecutive mayoral terms – is Labour's most popular politician and would likely win a direct vote against Starmer amongst the party membership.

Thursday's vote for the Makerfield seat, where Labour had held a majority of just 5,300 votes, was seen as a test of whether Burnham can defeat Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage.

The area is predominantly white and working-class -- fertile territory for the hard-right group which has topped national surveys for over a year.

But local plumber Kenyon's campaign was dogged by past offensive remarks about women, while the fringe hard-right Restore Britain party dented Reform's vote by snagging nearly 7 percent of returns.

'Transition'

Starmer has vowed to fight any leadership challenge, but the resounding nature of Burnham's win is likely to heighten pressure from Labour MPs to step down instead.

A cascade of resignations from Starmer's top team would make his position untenable.

Before the Makerfield result was declared, ex-minister Louise Haigh told the BBC Starmer should consider "an orderly and managed transition" of power.

Burnham, an MP from 2001 to 2017, hails from Labour's so-called soft-left wing and has been an outspoken critic of Starmer's more-centrist rule.

Attention now turns to when he will make his move against Starmer.

Burnham is due to be sworn in as a member of parliament on Monday. Under Labour party rules, leadership candidates must be an MP.

He will be able to easily muster the support of 81 of Labour's 400-plus MPs -- the minimum needed to kickstart a contest.

Starmer has urged Burnham not to launch a leadership challenge © Isabel Infantes / POOL/AFP

Ex-health minister Wes Streeting, from Labour's right wing, has said Starmer should be given "space over the weekend" to consider his future.

Streeting has also vowed to join any race, but could end up striking a deal with Burnham to avoid a divisive fight.

Speaking to the BBC, polling expert John Curtice cautioned against any suggestion that Burnham's victory would lead to a "dramatic" improvement in Labour's popularity nationwide.

Keir Starmer: British PM fighting for his political future

London (AFP) – UK leader Keir Starmer swept to power in July 2024 promising to end years of chaos in British politics but has angered voters with numerous U-turns and controversies.

Issued on: 19/06/2026 - RFI

Keir Starmer is the first Labour prime minister since 2010 © Oli SCARFF / AFP
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Now he faces a likely leadership bid by popular party veteran Andy Burnham after the Greater Manchester mayor won a decisive by-election in the northwest.

In his first speech as prime minister on July 5, 2024, Starmer promised a government of "service" that would "tread more lightly" on people's lives following 14 years of Conservative rule dominated by Brexit and infighting.

He sought to make a virtue of his more measured approach, contrasting what he saw as his pragmatic managerialism with the ideological bombast of previous Tory prime ministers Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

"There's no such thing as Starmerism and there never will be," the man himself is said to have told colleagues, according to "Get In", a book about his leadership of the Labour party written by journalists Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund

But soon after entering Downing Street, he struggled to be the safe pair of hands he had portrayed, while his lack of ideology and charisma has left him struggling to sell a story of where he is taking the country.

He insisted on Friday that "there's more to do and that's what I'm focusing on" as he faced further calls from some of Labour's approximately 400 MPs to step down to avoid a bitter leadership challenge from Burnham and possibly other contenders.
Successful career

Starmer, born on September 2, 1962, was raised in a small semi-detached house on the outskirts of London by a seriously ill mother and an emotionally distant father who loved animals and rescued donkeys.

Poor local and regional election results in May increased calls for Starmer to quit © JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP

After university, he enjoyed a successful career as a human rights lawyer and chief state prosecutor which led to him being knighted by then Queen Elizabeth II.

A keen flautist and Arsenal fan, Starmer became an MP in 2015, succeeding left-winger Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader five years later, following the party's worst general election defeat since 1935.

He showed his ruthless side by purging Corbyn, targeting antisemitism and moving the party back to the more electable centre ground, delivering Labour's biggest election victory in over two decades.

On becoming UK leader, Starmer pledged to "fix" Britain after years of sluggish growth, a cost-of-living crisis and public services hollowed out by Tory austerity measures.

But he cautioned the road to recovery would be "long and difficult".
Troubles

His premiership got off to a bad start when his government announced a hugely unpopular policy to remove winter fuel payments from millions of elderly people, which had not been in Labour's election manifesto. He later backtracked.

Starmer was also forced into a humiliating climbdown on reforming welfare benefits, backed down in a row with farmers over inheritance tax and angered businesses for increasing a payroll tax and the minimum wage.

The early months were also dominated by anger over a free gifts row, while in September 2025, Angela Rayner resigned as deputy prime minister for underpaying a property tax.

Andy Burnham speaks to supporters after his by-election victory in Makerfield © Darren Staples / AFP

That same month, Starmer sacked Peter Mandelson as his ambassador to Washington over the depth of the envoy's friendship with late US sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The appointment, for which Starmer has apologised, led to the departure of two of his closest aides and the most senior civil servant in the foreign ministry.

Starmer himself has refused to quit but the scandal haunts him, contributing to a series of humiliating local election results for Labour in May that renewed calls for his departure.
Burnham challenge

While Starmer has been praised for standing up to US President Donald Trump over the Iran war and maintaining European support for Ukraine, he has struggled to fend off support at home for both the left-wing Greens and the populist, hard-right Reform UK party, led by firebrand Nigel Farage.

A key by-election victory on Friday paved the way for an expected leadership challenge from popular Labour veteran Burnham, who decisively beat a Reform candidate on his home soil in the north of England.

Starmer has one of the lowest popularity ratings ever among prime ministers at just 19 percent, according to a YouGov poll.

On Friday, Starmer vowed not to "walk away" as leader, saying he would run in any leadership contest but warning that this would plunge the country "into chaos".

© 2026 AFP

Gas expansion in the guise of security: Is Europe making the energy crisis permanent?

By Angela Symons

Published on 19/06/2026 - EURONEWS

Flexible power and energy security are being used to lock Europe deeper into fossil fuels, a new report warns.

The fossil fuel price shock triggered by the war on Iran has exposed Europe’s dangerous reliance on oil and gas. But rather than treating it as a warning, governments across the EU are doubling down – with plans to build almost 60 gigawatts of new gas plants that could lock the continent into fossil fuel dependence for decades to come, a new analysis cautions.

The ‘Merchants of Crisis’ report, published by campaign group Beyond Fossil Fuels (BFF) on 15 June, finds that the planned gas plants, if built, would burn around 28 billion cubic metres of gas every year – equivalent to around nine per cent of the EU’s projected gas imports, or the annual gas consumption of 46.4 million households.

Natural gas prices in Europe have already risen by 60 per cent since the outbreak of the war, with Europe entering the crisis with much lower gas storage levels than in recent years – 46 billion cubic metres at the end of February 2026, compared with 60 billion cubic metres a year earlier.

Households and businesses are bearing the brunt with spiking energy bills and a deepening cost of living crisis.

“Building more gas plants will not protect people in Europe from future energy crises – it will deepen our dependence on volatile fossil fuel imports, while energy companies profit,” says Juliet Phillips, energy campaigner at Beyond Fossil Fuels. “The real solution is establishing a strategy to phase out fossil fuels while accelerating progress on renewables, storage, grids and clean flexibility.”

Germany is on the frontline of new gas power

The report argues that “a powerful alliance of politicians and energy companies” is pushing Europe deeper into fossil fuel dependence in the guise of energy security. This creates what it calls “a self-reinforcing cycle” that enriches energy companies while leaving households exposed to future price shocks.

It singles out Germany as a prominent example. The German government plans to add 12 gigawatts of power plant capacity by 2031, 10 of which are earmarked for hydrogen-ready, gas-fired plants.

While this is down from the coalition government’s initial plans to tender 20 GW of gas capacity by 2030, it’s still a significant addition to the country’s existing portfolio of roughly 31 GW. The German government mandates that all newly built gas-fired capacity must “decarbonise” by 2045 – although it leaves the door open for this to be achieved through carbon capture and storage (CCS), which critics including the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) warn is not a proven or cost-efficient solution.

In particular, BFF contends that while Germany’s Energy Minister Katherina Reiche is central to the country’s energy policy, she is not neutral. BFF claims she brings a pro-gasindustry stance to her role, after a decade working with E.ON subsidiary Westenergie AG, which supplies over 6.6 million people with fossil-fuelled energy, and VKU, an influential lobby group for municipal energy utilities.

Since entering office, she has pushed for the expansion of gas-fired power plants, advocated for the EU to relax its net-zero deadlines to protect industry, and proposed cuts to solar and grid subsidies. She also backed the rollback of Germany’s renewables-focused Heating Act last month.

The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWE) did not immediately reply when contacted for comment.

Germans already face the highest energy bills in the EU due to the country’s high exposure to volatile global gas and oil markets, which set electricity prices. Around 95 per cent of gas consumed in Germany comes from imports.

The report also highlights Poland and Romania as having significant government shares in oil and gas that influence policy decisions. In Poland, the state is the majority owner of utilities PGE and ENEA and the top shareholder in energy and utility conglomerates Orlen and Tauron.

In Romania, gas producer Romgaz is 70 per cent state-owned, while the state holds a 20.7 per cent share in oil company OMV Petrom. The two companies are co-developing the €4 billion Neptun Deep Black Sea gas project, which is set to double Romania’s gas production from 2027. Romania’s Mintia gas-fired thermal power plant, slated to be the largest in the EU, is expected to become operational this year – despite EU grid body ENTSO-E finding much of the planned capacity would not be economically viable by 2035.

Flexible power: Why can’t Europe move forward?

Germany’s energy security plans highlight a wider problem: the existing electricity system was built around fossil-fuelled power, and “energy security” is once again being used to justify maintaining the status quo rather than investing in reform.

By mandating that 10 GW of its new power capacity “must be able to generate electricity continuously over a longer period of time”, Germany is effectively favouring gas-fired plants. These are currently relied on across Europe to provide flexible, dispatchable power – balancing the grid when wind and solar output doesn’t match demand.

But campaigners and energy analysts argue this approach could leave countries with stranded assets. Focusing on battery storage and other clean flexibility solutions could be cheaper and more resilient.

"Clean flexibility is scaling fast," think tank Ember's senior energy analyst, Dr. Beatrice Petrovich, tells Euronews Earth. "Grid-scale battery costs hit a record low in 2025, continuing a decade-long trend, while installed capacity more than doubled in just two years – making batteries a cheaper alternative to new gas for short-term grid balancing that is also faster to build.

"In Germany alone, battery capacity is expected to grow from 2.5 GW in 2025 to over 10 GW in the next few years. Combined with AI-enabled demand flexibility from a growing fleet of EVs and heat pumps, this progress shows that policymakers should carefully assess the risks of overbuilding fossil assets, including gas supply disruption and stranded costs at the expense of taxpayers."

Poland’s capacity auctions go even further: they explicitly only allow gas-fired units to participate, framed by the government as “system stabilisation and energy security”. But new research by Krzysztof Bodzek at the Silesian University of Technology suggests this is also a political choice rather than an unavoidable necessity – finding that by 2040, local energy balancing alone could displace the need for 20.8 GW of gas power plants.

The prioritisation of gas as a controllable power source is especially problematic because it draws investment and political focus away from making renewables more flexible through things like battery storage, demand-side response, and time-of-use tariffs.

Germany is a stark illustration of how far behind Europe’s largest economy is on this front: while countries like France, Italy, Spain and Sweden have smart meter coverage of 95 per cent or above, just under four per cent of German households had a smart meter at the end of September 2025.

Smart meters are a necessity for dynamic electricity tariffs, which are in turn essential for aligning variable renewable generation with consumption – and reducing reliance on gas as a backup.

TTEP, a recent joint venture between TotalEnergies and EPH announced in May, is set to become one of Europe’s largest gas power producers. It, too, has been framed as a flexgen player. But campaigners say it will effectively create a new fossil gas giant with a structural interest in prolonging Europe’s dependence on gas imports.

‘European households need freedom from fossil fuel price shocks’

“Energy security cannot be used as a pretext for making the fossil fuel industry even richer through new gas deals,” says Phillips. “European households and businesses need exactly the opposite: lower bills, greater resilience and freedom from fossil fuel price shocks.”

BFF is calling on EU leaders, who are meeting this week for the European Council, to endorse a long-term framework to progressively reduce Europe’s structural dependence on fossil fuels – backed by measurable targets and supported by accelerated investment in renewables, storage and grid infrastructure.

The European Commission has already proposed a package of new measures, AccelerateEU, in response to the current crisis, but BFF argues these fall short of the structural shift needed to prevent Europe from becoming permanently vulnerable to fossil fuel price shocks.

A letter signed by over 20 industry groups, climate NGOs and trade unions has been delivered to EU leaders ahead of the Council meeting, calling for measures that structurally reduce Europe’s exposure to fossil fuel volatility.

'Explosive cocktail': El Niño raises fears of summer wildfires in Portugal

By Ricardo Figueira

Published on 19/06/2026 - EURONEWS

The European Commission has confirmed that El Niño is almost certain this year, which could affect Europe. Speaking to Euronews, climatologist Carlos da Camara warns of a possible heatwave and major wildfires in Portugal.

El Niño is on the way, but its direct effects on Portugal will be very limited, according to information from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA).

The European Commission, through the Joint Research Centre (JRC), is the latest international body to say it is "virtually certain" the phenomenon will recur this year, probably lasting until 2027.

According to the JRC report, El Niño is expected to reach a "very high" intensity, probably hitting a "very strong" level and potentially surpassing historical precedents such as the event 12 years ago. The European Commission warns in particular of the food risks associated with drought, which comes on top of already high energy and fertiliser prices and could put "hundreds of millions of additional people at risk". Adverse weather conditions could hit key crops such as durum wheat, which may be the most affected, as well as maize, rice, soya and winter wheat.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning earlier this month (source in Portuguese), saying there is an 80% probability that an El Niño event will develop between June and August this year, meaning an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, with direct consequences for tropical and subtropical regions worldwide and possible indirect effects in many other parts of the globe. More recent forecasts say the consequences of this event, which is expected to have "moderate to strong" intensity, have a 90% probability of lasting until the end of the year.

The WMO information was also disseminated by the UN (source in Portuguese), accompanied by a video from Secretary-General António Guterres, who said: "The world must treat this threat as a climate alarm bell. El Niño will further intensify global heating. Its impacts will be more severe, will reach further and will cross borders at devastating speed."

Portugal is far from the Pacific, but that does not mean it is shielded from the impact El Niño has on temperatures. A hot summer means the need for heightened vigilance, not only regarding the health effects of heat, especially for people working outdoors, but also in relation to wildfires.

According to the IPMA, in a note released (source in Portuguese), "although El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it can influence climate patterns on a global scale. However, its effects in Portugal are neither direct nor straightforward to predict."

What impact will it have on Portugal?

For climatologist Carlos da Camara, the occurrence of the phenomenon in the context of climate change could be an explosive cocktail and have consequences for Portugal, albeit indirect ones.

For this senior researcher at the Dom Luiz Institute, the effects of El Niño can be compared to throwing a large stone into a pond, creating concentric ripples that gradually lose strength as they spread: "The phenomenon starts in the central Pacific. The disturbance extends over the American continent, both north and south, then reaches Indonesia and continues from there. It eventually has an influence on southern Africa and then spreads over Canada before it starts to die out, meaning the direct influence on the European continent is small, very small. In particular on the Iberian Peninsula, it is smaller still," he explains.

However, even if the direct consequences are scant or virtually nil, the phenomenon’s "butterfly effect", combined with current conditions, could have indirect consequences for Portugal this summer, especially in terms of wildfires.

In Mediterranean Europe, which he considers one of the parts of the world where climate change is being felt most intensely, the impact could be amplified. "My concern is that there may be a heatwave like the one in 2003, which was the most severe heatwave ever recorded in Europe," the scientist says. "If that happens, given that we had that sequence of storms linked to the Kristin depression which brought down millions of trees, we know we now have much more biomass available to burn, not only because we had a very rainy spring, but also because of this excess biomass from fallen trees. We could, for example, see a large-scale wildfire, and that in a very tricky time of year," he explains.

Could such a heatwave arrive as early as next week? The IPMA is forecasting very high temperatures from the weekend, with values that could exceed 40°C in several inland areas. Some private models even predict that thermometers could reach 50°C. For Carlos da Camara, "that figure represents an upper threshold with a high degree of uncertainty".

As for whether the 2003 level could be reached in the coming days, the climatologist says he does not yet have enough information to say.

Carlos da Camara sums up the possible effects as follows: "Will El Niño have direct influences? No. Indirect influences? Very probably, yes. Indirect influences on top of a background that has been worsened and degraded by climate change, which can lead to much greater impacts? The answer is yes, certainly. Ultimately, the problem is not El Niño itself – for other regions it is, for north-eastern Brazil it certainly will be, for South Africa it certainly will be, for Indonesia too. For Europe probably not, but indirectly it very well might be."

What is El Niño?

Contrary to what some people think, this phenomenon is neither new nor recent, and it is not caused by climate change, although global warming can amplify its effects. The term was first used in the late 19th century in Peru to describe the warming of Pacific currents that frequently occurred around Christmas.

More recently, meteorologists have begun linking this phenomenon to a whole range of extreme weather events that can occur at the same time as "El Niño". One example came in 2014 and 2015, when the "El Niño" confirmed by the WMO was accompanied by severe droughts in several regions of the world, which badly affected agriculture and increased the risk of food insecurity in parts of the globe that were already particularly fragile.

According to scientists, the "El Niño" expected to begin this summer could have consequences as serious as, or even more serious than, the one that occurred 12 years ago.

The phenomenon began to be studied in more detail by meteorologists with the creation of a scientific framework known as ENSO, short for "El Niño Southern Oscillation", which measures temperature fluctuations in Pacific waters and predicts both El Niño and the opposite phenomenon, the cooling of the currents, known as "La Niña".

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