WEATHER REPORT

La Nina, which worsens hurricanes and drought, is gone





 Residents of Red Lodge, Montana, are seen clearing mud, water and debris from the small city's main street on Tuesday, June 14, 2022, after flood waters courses through a residential area with hundreds of homes. After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday, March 9, 2023.(AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

SETH BORENSTEIN
Thu, March 9, 2023

WASHINGTON (AP) — After three nasty years, the La Nina weather phenomenon that increases Atlantic hurricane activity and worsens western drought is gone, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

That’s usually good news for the United States and other parts of the world, including drought-stricken northeast Africa, scientists said.

The globe is now in what’s considered a “neutral” condition and probably trending to an El Nino in late summer or fall, said climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office.

“It’s over,” said research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Nino/La Nina forecasting. “Mother Nature thought to get rid of this one because it’s enough.”

La Nina is a natural and temporary cooling of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide. In the United States, because La Nina is connected to more Atlantic storms and deeper droughts and wildfires in the West, La Ninas often are more damaging and expensive than their more famous flip side, El Nino, experts said and studies show.

Generally, American agriculture is more damaged by La Nina than El Nino. If the globe jumps into El Nino it means more rain for the Midwestern corn belt and grains in general and could be beneficial, said Michael Ferrari, chief scientific officer of Climate Alpha, a firm that advises investors on financial decisions based on climate.

When there’s a La Nina, there are more storms in the Atlantic during hurricane season because it removes conditions that suppress storm formation. Neutral or El Nino conditions make it harder for storms to get going, but not impossible, scientists said.

Over the last three years, the U.S. has been hit by 14 hurricanes and tropical storms that caused a billion dollars or more in damage, totalling $252 billion in costs, according to NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam Smith said. La Nina and people building in harm's way were factors, he said.

Climate change is a major factor in worsening extreme weather, alongside La Nina, scientists said and numerous studies and reports show. Human-caused warming is like an escalator going up: It makes temperatures increase and extremes worse, while La Nina and El Nino are like jumping up and down on the escalator, according to Northern Illinois University atmospheric sciences professor Victor Gensini.

La Nina has also slightly dampened global average temperatures, keeping warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Nino slightly turbocharges those temperatures often setting records, scientists said.

La Nina tends to make Western Africa wet, but Eastern Africa, around Somalia, dry. The opposite happens in El Nino with drought-struck Somalia likely to get steady “short rains,” Ehsan said. La Nina has wetter conditions for Indonesia, parts of Australia and the Amazon, but those areas are drier in El Nino, according to NOAA.

El Nino means more heat waves for India and Pakistan and other parts of South Asia and weaker monsoons there, Ehsan said.

This particular La Nina, which started in September 2020 but is considered three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came roaring back with record intensity.

“I’m sick of this La Nina,” Ehsan said. L’Heureux agreed, saying she’s ready to talk about something else.

The few other times that there’s been a triple-dip La Nina have come after strong El Ninos and there’s clear physics on why that happens. But that’s not what happened with this La Nina, L’Heureux said. This one didn’t have a strong El Nino before it.

Even though this La Nina has confounded scientists in the past, they say the signs of it leaving are clear: Water in the key part of the central Pacific warmed to a bit more than the threshold for a La Nina in February, the atmosphere showed some changes and along the eastern Pacific near Peru, there’s already El Nino-like warming brewing on the coast, L’Heureux said.

Think of a La Nina or El Nino as something that pushes the weather system from the Pacific with ripple effects worldwide, L’Heureux said. When there are neutral conditions like now, there’s less push from the Pacific. That means other climatic factors, including the long-term warming trend, have more influence in day-to-day weather, she said.

Without an El Nino or La Nina, forecasters have a harder time predicting seasonal weather trends for summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has such a big footprint in weeks-long forecasts.

El Nino forecasts made in the spring are generally less reliable than ones made other times of year, so scientists are less sure about what will happen next, L’Heureux said. But NOAA’s forecast said there’s a 60% chance that El Nino will take charge come fall.

There’s also a 5% chance that La Nina will return for an unprecedented fourth dip. L’Heureux said she really doesn’t want that but the scientist in her would find that interesting.

 ___ Follow AP’s climate and environment coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment ___ Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears ___ 

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

US forecaster says El Nino could arrive by summer 2023


By Seher Dareen

(Reuters) - La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer 2023, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday, with El Niño possibly forming during summer 2023 and persisting through the fall.

"The forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral through summer 2023, with elevated chances of El Niño developing afterwards," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said.

The La Niña weather pattern is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

There was an over 50% chance of the El Niño weather pattern emerging by the July-August-Septmeber period, the U.S. forecaster highlighted, as some regions braced for a hit to crop production.

The El Niño phenomenon is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, sometimes causing crop damage, flash floods or fires.

"A weak monsoon – which has been observed in previous El Niño years - could lead to lower production of rice not only in India but across Southeast Asia," said Mark Brusberg, Chief Meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In Australia, the wheat crop is likely to face risks from dry weather due to the El Niño weather pattern in the second half of the year, while India's weather office has warned that another heatwave in March is likely, especially in the key wheat-producing central and northern states.

"In contrast, an El Niño could lead to a rebound in U.S. wheat production if the drought on the southern Plains were to abate, and Argentina could return to its role as a key contributor to the world supply of wheat, corn, and soybeans," Brusberg added.

The emergence of El Nino could also strain global inventories of palm oil, as the condition usually results in below-average rainfall in main producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Peru mining firms' logistics at risk from extended protests, Fitch says



 Protest against the suspension of the Las Bambas mine, in Lima

Thu, March 9, 2023

(Reuters) - Mining companies operating in Peru face "material risk" amid extended protests and blockades in the world's No. 2 copper-producing nation, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday, warning of possible lack of supplies and issues transporting ore to ports.

"We believe protests and blockades that extend beyond three months can pose a material risk to a mine's operations, including logistics," Fitch said in a report, highlighting uncertainty on when the conflicts will be resolved - particularly in areas with important copper deposits.

The South American nation has since December faced a political crisis driving extended protests and blockades which have left dozens dead, following the ouster of former leftist President Pedro Castillo, who had an important support base among impoverished areas of the southern Andean region.

Miners Buenaventura and Volcan, which operate only in Peru, could face especially high risk of disruption due to lack of supplies and problems transferring products to ports on the country's Pacific coast, Fitch said.


However, companies with several commodity businesses and solid liquidity should be able to carry out shipments to the coast with limited difficulty, it said.

Earlier this week, Energy and Mines Minister Oscar Vera said the country's key mining corridor was "practically unblocked," and data early this month showed key copper mines cranking up activities again despite the uncertainty.

(Reporting by Marion Giraldo; Editing by Sarah Morland and S

'Brothers in arms': war brings Ukrainians and Roma closer, for now

Thu, March 9, 2023 

In the ramshackle, predominantly Roma Radvanka district of Uzhhorod in western Ukraine, a soldier from the beleaguered minority proudly showed off a bravery award signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

With shrapnel from Russian bombs still lodged in his arm from fighting around Mariupol, 31-year-old Viktor Ilchak told AFP he "almost died four times" during an eight-month spell on the war's frontlines.

The bravery of soldiers like Ilchak and Roma groups helping Ukrainian refugees are chipping away at ingrained prejudices about the minority, say Roma in Uzhhorod.

"At the front it doesn't matter if you are Roma or not, we considered each other brothers," said the father-of-four.

"Many wondered whether Roma who can't read or write can fight for the army -- they were all surprised that Gypsies are fighting," said Ilchak, a tank mechanic with the 128th Transcarpathian Brigade.

"I told them -- if I am Ukrainian, I have to fight for Ukraine," he said outside his house in a potholed street where several passing cars carried military membership signs on their windscreens.

"They said the Roma don't serve, but they are wrong! In times of need we can be counted on!" shouted his father-in-law Janos Tokar, 58.

- 'Amazing' help -

Roma groups in Uzhhorod -- the largest city in Transcarpathia, Ukraine's westernmost region and home to its biggest concentration of Roma -- detect a shift in attitudes to them due to the war.

"A lot of people have begun saying on social media things like, 'Oh Roma people helped Ukrainians, this is amazing,'" said Anzhelika Bielova, head of the Voice of Romni group.

Its mission is to help young Roma women gain skills and stable jobs, but since the invasion it has also been organising aid for non-Roma refugees.

Groups like Bielova's estimate that there are 400,000 Roma scattered across Ukraine.

Already facing entrenched poverty, discrimination and segregation, the war brought new trauma with an estimated 170,000 Roma fleeing from Ukraine's east and south.

The flow of often undocumented Roma refugees was accompanied by reports of discrimination at border crossings into neighbouring countries and in humanitarian aid queues.

"Our organisation has helped the Ukrainian people a lot," Bielova told AFP in her office, as a queue of both Roma and non-Roma people waited outside for help.

"A lot of our team are internally displaced persons (IDPs), we know how hard it is to live in a new place," said Bielova, 27, a refugee from Zaporizhzhia herself.

- Changing minds -

In Radvanka where many makeshift houses have corrugated metal roofs and noisy goods trains thunder close by, Eleonora Kulchar runs a refugee shelter that is open to all regardless of background.

The 54-year-old initially launched the facility in March to help her "own people", who she saw not getting help at Uzhhorod train station as they fled, before receiving all comers.

"Those who have seen Roma defending Ukraine or helping Ukrainian refugees are changing their minds about us," said Kulchar, the head of a Roma education organisation called Blago.

Almost half the shelter's 70 residents are non-Roma families from Mariupol, Berdyansk, and Kherson.

Upstairs a family from Kherson told AFP they were taken in in November after failing to find a room in Uzhhorod where most hotels are fully occupied by IDPs.

"We were a bit afraid, as before we had no contact with Roma people, but then we saw that everything is ok," said Veronika Komarnitskaya, 37.

"They are just like us," said her mother Lyudmyla Chukhran, 62.

In the yard, Komarnitskaya's 10-year-old son Nikita played football with Roma children, and has even picked up a little of the Romani language.

"The war has brought us closer together, before I would never have believed that could happen," she said while bouncing a Roma child on her knee in the shelter's common room.

Still, Bielova sounded a cautious note about how long the rapprochement will last.

"After we win the war there is much work to do. We have to educate Ukrainians about human rights and dignity if we want to join the European Union," she said.

Ukraine sees bloody battle for Bakhmut as chance to wipe out Wagner's army of convicts

Erin Snodgrass
Wed, March 8, 2023 

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer towards Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut, on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images

Wagner Group is increasingly relying on its professional recruits as inmates flounder in Bakhmut.


The monthslong battle in Ukraine's east drags on as both sides face mounting losses.


Wagner soldiers have played an outsized role in the battle of Bakhmut thus far.

Wagner Group, the Russian paramilitary organization that sparked global outrage by offering convicted prisoners a chance at freedom in exchange for their fighting in Ukraine, has been forced to draw upon its professional recruits to backfill the ranks of dying inmates in the city of Bakhmut, analysts and an official said.

As Russia draws closer to capturing the former salt-mining city in eastern Ukraine, both sides are facing mounting casualties in the monthslong fight. Russia has lost up to 30,000 soldiers in Bakhmut, according to Western officials, while Ukrainian forces have suffered thousands of deaths and injuries as well amid the ruined city.

As Wagner's forces continue to fall, Russia is turning to more experienced troops to bridge the gap, according to The Institute for the Study of War, which said Monday that both Wagner and the traditional Russian military are committing to higher-quality special forces operators in an effort to conclusively take the city.

Wagner soldiers have played an outsized role in the battle of Bakhmut over the last six months, where its poorly-trained convicts are serving as "cannon fodder" amid a ruthless fight, the National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said last month.

A Ukrainian official's recent comments regarding the mercenary group suggest Ukraine sees the brutal fighting in Bakhmut as an opportunity to deplete Wagner's forces once and for all, according to The New York Times. Col. Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukraine's eastern group of forces, told Radio Liberty that Bakhmut marks Wagner Group's "last stand," per the Times.

Over approximately five months of recruiting, more than 40,000 former prisoners accepted Wagner's offer to deploy in Ukraine, US officials said earlier this year. Meanwhile, US intelligence from December suggested an estimated 10,000 professional Russian soldiers, the majority of whom are veterans, were also acting as Wagner soldiers alongside the former inmates.

More than 30,000 of those fighters have since been killed or injured in the fighting, Kirby said last month.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group and a longtime ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, called for further reinforcements into Bakhmut on Monday. Unless his request for additional ammunition and bodies is answered, Prigozhin warned that a Ukrainian counteroffensive could cut off Wagner's forces entirely and spell trouble for Russia.

A mural depicting mercenaries of Russia's Wagner Group that reads: "Wagner Group - Russian knights."AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic

Prigozhin previously compared the Bakhmut battle to a "meat grinder," acknowledging that his men were dying at alarming rates, but suggesting the casualties would ultimately be worth it as Ukraine struggles with significant losses simultaneously. He suggested this week, however, that Russia's entire front line would collapse if his fighters fail to secure Bakhmut.

Western military analysts and leaders have said that the battle of Bakhmut is more symbolic than strategic for both sides, especially as Ukraine appears to be on the verge of losing the city. Russia and Ukraine have both indicated that continued fighting is essential to tear down the enemy, even as both sides suffer staggering losses.

Despite speculation that Ukraine was preparing to withdraw from Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday that he would send further reinforcements to the city. He warned this week that losing Bakhmut would give the Russians an "open road" to other Ukrainian cities.

The fighting has grown so intense in and around Bakhmut that "fistfights" have broken out between Russian and Ukrainian troops, one Ukrainian soldier told The Washington Post this month.

RETURN OF THE PANZER TANK

A German company is offering Ukraine the benefit — and burden — of being the first military to get its brand-new tank

Michael Peck
Thu, March 9, 2023 a

A Rheinmetall Panther KF51 main battle tank at the Rheinmetall plant in Lower Saxony in July.Julian Stratenschulte/picture alliance via Getty Images

Prominent German defense firm Rheinmetall is offering Ukraine its new Panther Kf51 tank.


The Kf51 would leapfrog the other older Western-made tanks that are being sent to Ukraine.


While the Kf51 has advanced capabilities, its newness may create more headaches for the Ukrainians.

While Ukraine waits on the older Abrams and Leopard tanks that the US and European countries have promised to deliver, it may have the opportunity to buy a cutting-edge German tank.

Acquiring the next-generation Panther Kf51 would give Ukraine the chance to leapfrog the older tanks that Western donors are sending — as well the mostly Cold War-era tanks that Ukraine already uses — but taking on an unproven vehicle could further tax Ukraine's military as it struggles to incorporate older Western tank models.

Rheinmetall, the prominent German arms firm that developed the Kf51, seems confident the idea could work. Its CEO, Armin Papperger, told German business newspaper Handelsblatt that the Panther could be delivered to Ukraine "in 15 to 18 months."

"We are talking to Kyiv about exporting the Panther," Papperger said. Interestingly, Papperger said that Ukraine had also expressed interest Rheinmetall's next-generation Lynx infantry fighting vehicle.

An illustration of Rheinmetall's Panther KF51.Rheinmetall Defence

Rheinmetall is reportedly negotiating with Ukraine to build a tank factory there, though it's not clear whether it would produce the Panther or the older Leopard 2 tank.

The Kf51 Panther is a new tank with some old features. Its hull is based on the Leopard 2, which debuted in 1979. But the turret contains Rheinmetall's next-generation Future Gun System, a 130 mm smoothbore cannon that replaces the standard 120 mm found on Western tanks such as the M1 Abrams, Leopard 2, and the Challenger 2.

The Panther also has advanced features, including launchers for HERO 120 loitering munitions that give the tank an on-board kamikaze drone capability. Sophisticated networking capabilities allow it to be integrated into detect-and-shoot kill chains and the ability to control "wingman" unmanned ground vehicles that provide capabilities "such as platoon-level air and drone defense," according to Rheinmetall, which describes the Panther as a "truly software-defined tank."

Rheinmetall presented the Panther at a Paris trade fair last summer and "touted it as the strongest battle tank in the world," according to Handelsblatt.

A German Leopard 2 tank in Munster in May 2019.Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images

Two aspects of the Kf51 stand out. One is the autoloader that replaces the crew member who loads shells into the main gun, enabling the tank to have a crew of three rather that the four usually found in Western tanks. (Russian tanks also use an autoloader for a crew of three.)

Like the next-generation Abrams tank, the Panther's turret can be unmanned, with its crew operating the vehicle behind the thicker armor of the tank's hull.

Perhaps not coincidentally, an unmanned turret and on-board drones are also a feature of Russia's next-generation T-14 Armata tank, which first appeared in 2014. Russia's army has only bought a few T-14s, possibly because of the high price as well as production and mechanical issues. The Kremlin also appears reluctant to commit T-14s to combat in Ukraine.

It's also notable that the Panther has a combat weight of just 59 tons. This is lighter than the latest Leopard 2A7, which is 67 tons, and Abrams and Challenger, which weigh 70 to 80 tons, both of which Ukraine is slated to receive. Lighter vehicles can more easily cross bridges or muddy terrain, which are key considerations on Ukrainian battlefields.

An illustration of the Panther KF51.Rheinmetall Defence

But tank design is about tradeoffs, especially when it comes to weight.

One reason the Kf51 is slimmer is because just like the Leopard 2, it is not as thickly armored as the Abrams and Challenger. Instead of bulky armor plate, the Panther relies more on active and passive protection systems, such as jammers, smokescreens, and projectiles to destroy incoming anti-tank rockets.

There is no doubt that Ukraine needs more tanks. Russia has lost almost 2,000 tanks since the war began a year ago, according to a tally by the open-source website Oryx, but Ukraine has lost almost 500 tanks.

While Ukraine has been able to replenish some losses by putting more than 500 captured Russian tanks into service, it is still going to need foreign vehicles as the Soviet-era designs it had before the war are destroyed or worn out.

Nonetheless, one consideration for Ukraine — and any foreign donors who would subsidize its purchase — is that no military has yet bought the Kf51.

Even the best new weapons have teething problems. If Ukraine becomes the first to field the Panther, then it will become the first to deal with the inevitable bugs. With all the challenges that Ukraine already faces, that's a gamble.

Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Nissan to overhaul electric powertrains for EVs, hybrids in search of cost cuts

A Nissan Leaf EV car and portable battery on display at Nissan Gallery in Yokohama

Wed, March 8, 2023 

YOKOHAMA, Japan (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co Ltd on Thursday said it will overhaul its approach to powertrains for all-electric and hybrid petrol-electric vehicles as it aims to bring hybrid prices in line with those of petrol-powered cars by 2026.

The Japanese automaker said it will use the same components across models to make electric powertrains - the assembly which propels a vehicle - smaller and lighter, and reduce development and production costs by 30% within three years versus 2019.

It will also use solid-state batteries with materials that are cheaper than those usually used, such as nickel and cobalt, Senior Vice President Toshihiro Hirai told reporters.

"Materials that don't use such expensive precious metals are being developed, which will be a major factor in reducing costs," Hirai said.

The effort is among many by automakers trying to make new-energy vehicles more affordable, such as by reducing the cost of electric powertrains which have yet to achieve parity with those used in traditionally powered vehicles.

Nissan will apply its streamlined approach to powertrains to different sizes of vehicles, expecting to equip such vehicles as micro "kei" and mid-sized cars from 2024 or 2025, Hirai said.

The powertrain size and weight reduction will improve vehicle performance, such as by making driving in the snow or on sand more stable, the automaker said.

Nissan became one of the first mass-market electric-vehicle makers with its Leaf model more than a decade ago. It aims to introduce 27 electrified models, including 19 all-electric vehicles, by fiscal year 2030.

Japan's Nissan slashing EV costs, cuts rare materials use




 Nissan Chief Executive Makoto Uchida speaks during a Renault Nissan Mitsubishi press conference in London, on Feb. 6, 2023. Nissan is speeding up its shift toward electric vehicles, especially in Europe where emissions regulations are most stringent, the company said Monday, Feb. 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth, File)

YURI KAGEYAMA
Wed, March 8, 2023

TOKYO (AP) — Japanese automaker Nissan is revving up its electrification shift and slashing costs by using the same components across models and reducing use of expensive rare materials.

Nissan Motor Co. presented its “X-in-1” development strategy Thursday, in which the X stands for various powertrain parts such as an electric motor and inverter that can be used across models. The company said development and manufacturing costs will be reduced by 30% in 2026 compared to 2019 levels.

The Yokohama-based automaker was a pioneer in electric vehicles but rivals like Tesla and BYD of China have overtaken it.

As the move toward ecological models gains momentum around the world, driven by worries over climate change, Nissan has been eager to showcase its prowess.

Its senior vice president, Toshihiro Hirai, acknowledged that prices of rare earths and other materials needed to make electric vehicle batteries and other parts are expected to rise in coming years. That means automakers must have a solid strategy for obtaining raw materials if they hope to succeed in electrification.

“We make the most of our expertise and know-how from our more than a decadelong development and production of electrified technologies,” said Hirai.

Compared to the first-generation vehicle the Leaf, rare materials account for 25% of the weight of the 2019 Nissan Note EV. Nissan aims to make that 1% or less.

Nissan, which also makes the March subcompact and Infiniti luxury models, is working on solid-state battery technology for EVs, a move that if successful is expected to radically reduce costs.

By 2030, Nissan’s EV offerings will cost about the same at dealers as the equivalent regular gasoline-engine models, Hirai said.

The cheapest EVs like the Leaf now sell for under $30,000, although small internal-combustion engine cars are cheaper, at about $21,000 for the Nissan Sentra in the U.S.

A Tesla Model 3, a relatively affordable model for a Tesla, sells for about $43,000.

But EVs are usually eligible for tax credits and other incentives. High gasoline prices might make EVs a smart buy in the long run, although much depends on the owner’s driving habits.

A Consumer Reports analysis last year said that based on the gas price at that time of $4.31 a gallon, EV owners could save between $1,800 and $2,600 in operating and maintenance costs for every 15,000 miles they drive, compared to drivers of gas-powered vehicles.

That's the average distance newer vehicles are driven in a year in the U.S. Gas prices have since fallen, so the savings would be lower but still significant.

Hirai said people find driving an electric vehicle less stressful because it’s quiet and delivers a smooth ride, even over rough terrain, while maintaining the fun feel of driving. One advantage of an EV is its more precise control over each wheel, which can effectively counter bumps and jolts.

Nissan has promised 27 new electrified models, including eight e-Power “series hybrid” models, which have both a gas engine and electric motor, by fiscal 2030.

___

Yuri Kageyama is on Twitter https://twitter.com/yurikageyama

Find more AP coverage of technology at https://apnews.com/hub/technology

Pakistan's Honda Atlas shuts production to end-March on import difficulties


The Honda logo is displayed at the 89th Geneva International Motor Show

Wed, March 8, 2023 
By Ariba Shahid

KARACHI, Pakistan (Reuters) - Honda Atlas Cars Pakistan Ltd has announced the longest plant shutdown to date in the current economic crisis amongst the country's automakers, which are struggling to obtain raw materials due to import difficulties.

The company, a unit of Japanese car giant Honda Motor Co Ltd, said its plant would shut from March 9, 2023, to March 31, 2023.

“The company is not in a position to continue with its production,” it said in a notice to the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), explaining its supply chain had been "severely disrupted."

Other listed-automakers, such as Indus Motor Company Limited (INDU) and Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC), have also been forced to halt production during the past three quarters due to Pakistan's economic difficulties, which have seen central bank foreign exchange reserves drop to a level barely able to cover four weeks of imports.

As a result, letters of credit (LC), used for imports, are facing delays while being processed and priority is being given to essential items such as food and medicine.

Pakistan is currently in talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to unlock the next tranche of $1.1 billion of a $6.5 billion bailout agreed in 2019.

“It is worrying because shutdowns not just impact corporate profitability but unemployment as well. The longer these shutdowns continue, it would test the companies' ability to maintain staff strength," says Fahad Rauf, head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities, a local brokerage firm.

Rauf adds that the situation is not likely to improve any time soon for low priority sectors, such as automobiles, in light of LC constraints.

“Pakistan has limited dollars and until reserves improve to at least two months’ worth of import cover, import restrictions would likely continue.”

Other manufacturing halts in the sector have been between two and 16 days.

(Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Karachi; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

SOCIALISM U$A
US announces $6 billion in grants to decarbonize heavy industry


U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm holds press briefing at the White House in Washington

Wed, March 8, 2023 

By Timothy Gardner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Biden administration said on Wednesday it is directing $6 billion in funding to speed decarbonization projects in energy-hungry industries like steel, aluminum and cement making that contribute nearly 25% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

The Industrial Demonstrations Program will provide competitive grants to technology developers, industry, universities and others for up to 50% of the cost of projects that aim to cut emissions from industry that also includes production of chemicals, ceramics and paper, the Department of Energy (DOE) said.

The program is part of President Joe Biden's pledge to decarbonize the U.S. economy by 2050.

U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the program will help cut pollution while ensuring the competitiveness of American manufacturing.

"It's not super-defined," Granholm said at the CERAWeek conference in Houston about the program which aims to fund projects at existing and new facilities alike.

The decarbonization technologies should be something "we can learn from and then have that technology be replicated and taken to scale," Granholm said.

The funding comes from the infrastructure bill President Joe Biden signed in 2021, and the Inflation Reduction Act, he signed last year.

Environmental groups praised the program and urged DOE to allocate at least 40% of the resources to facilities near communities that face environmental and social impacts from heavy industry.

"This new funding is an unmissable opportunity to modernize American primary steel manufacturing, reduce climate and health harming pollution and create jobs," said Hilary Lewis, steel director at Industrious Labs, a nonprofit working on the energy transition. "Without investment today, the industry risks falling behind in the race to green steel."

Concept papers expressing interest in the grants are due April 21, with full applications due on Aug. 4, DOE said.

TEAL AT BEST
Biden Officials Meet With Energy Leaders on Green Gas Standards



Jennifer A. Dlouhy
Thu, March 9, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Biden administration officials met Thursday with US energy executives about a potential framework to govern the certification of so-called responsibly sourced natural gas, amid surging interest in how to distinguish between the most- and least-polluting suppliers of the fuel.

Gas buyers are increasingly concerned with the amount of methane that goes straight into the atmosphere from leaky pipes and wells. Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas and can undermine natural gas’s environmental advantages over coal. However, such emissions can vary widely across companies, regions and even pipeline systems. Some producers are moving aggressively to fix leaks.

Now, hird-party certifiers are vetting the methane intensity of some supplies, based on the promise that domestic utilities and foreign buyers of US gas might eventually pay a premium when it’s identified as having fewer emissions during production and transportation. The effort is also seen as critical to addressing wariness over the issue among European fuel buyers.

Energy Department officials discussed their plan with gas producers, exporters and third-party methane assessors during a 90-minute closed-door meeting on the sidelines of the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston. The session was described by multiple participants who asked not to be identified because it was private.

Participants and observers included representatives from ConocoPhillips, EQT Corp., Project Canary, Sempra Infrastructure, various European countries, and the United Arab Emirates, which is due to host the COP28 UN climate summit in November. Administration officials told meeting participants they’re looking to develop an approach to the methane issue before the summit.

“The DOE is a perfect organization to convene this because they can help establish a framework with very specific kinds of criteria and help harmonize all of this,” said Fred Hutchison, president of the gas export advocacy group LNG Allies. “They recognize that there’s a problem — and we recognize it and we’re doing something about it.”

The Energy Department said in a statement Thursday it isn’t introducing or endorsing any policy measures on “the certification of natural gas at this time.” It said it will keep talking with international partners and stakeholders in a bid “to forge broader agreement” on a framework for measuring and monitoring, reporting and verifying the greenhouse gas intensity of natural gas across the supply chain.

The latest US effort — bringing together the State and Energy departments as well as the Environmental Protection Agency — is seen as helping to rein in an emerging group of third-party certifiers of gas. It also responds to concerns from some environmental advocates and fuel buyers that some baseline standards are necessary to ensure the “responsibly sourced gas” label has credibility and actually helps pare methane emissions.

Read More: ‘Responsibly Sourced’ Gas Finds a Niche as Some See Greenwashing

“While certification programs, measurement approaches and reporting protocols are advancing,” the DOE said in two-page document distributed at the meeting and seen by Bloomberg News, “there is not a consensus about what purchaser, regulator or other stakeholder expectations should be for a company making a claim that delivered or contracted gas is certified relative to its greenhouse gas emissions performance.”

They’re “trying to create clarity or order in the certified differentiated gas world,” and it’s a welcome effort, said Georges Tijbosch, chief executive officer of MiQ, a not-for-profit foundation certifying differentiated natural gas. “The process is about clarifying what is reasonable as certified gas and what works.”

House GOP votes to overturn Biden rule on water protections



MATTHEW DALY and MICHAEL PHILLIS
Thu, March 9, 2023 

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House on Thursday voted to overturn the Biden administration’s protections for thousands of small streams, wetlands and other waterways, advancing long-held Republican arguments that the regulations are an environmental overreach and burden to business.

The vote was 227-198 to overturn the rule.

House Republicans used the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to block recently enacted executive-branch regulations. The measure now heads to the Senate, where Republicans hope to attract Democratic senators wary of Biden's environmental policies. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., a frequent Biden antagonist, has already pledged to support the overturn of a rule he calls federal overreach.

Biden said he would veto the measure if it reaches his desk.

The clean water rule was finalized in December and defines which “waters of the United States” are protected under the Clean Water Act, the nation's primary anti-water pollution law. The rule has long been a flashpoint between environmentalists, who want to broaden limits on pollution entering the nation’s waters, and farmers, builders and industry groups that say extending regulations too far is onerous for business.

The Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers repealed the Trump administration’s business-friendly rule that scaled back protections.

Republicans have targeted the regulation in Congress and in court, where at least five federal lawsuits are challenging the EPA rule. The Supreme Court is considering a related case by an Idaho couple who have been blocked for more than 15 years from building a home near a lake after the EPA determined that part of the property was a wetlands that could not be disturbed without a permit.

A decision in the case, known as Sackett v. EPA, is expected this year.

House Republicans said their measure eases regulatory burdens for small businesses, manufacturers, farmers and “everyday Americans” by invalidating the Biden rule.

“American families, farmers, small businesses and entire communities are suffering under the economic crises caused by the disastrous Biden policies of the last two years. The last thing they need is this administration’s inexplicable decision to move the country back toward the overreaching, costly and burdensome regulations of the past, which is exactly what this WOTUS rule does,” said Rep. Sam Graves, R-Mo., chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, using a nickname for the rule favored by Republicans.

The EPA rule "needs to be repealed so Americans across the country are protected from subjective regulatory overreach making it harder to farm, build and generate economic prosperity,” added Rep. David Rouzer, R-N.C., chairman of a House subcommittee on water resources and the environment.

Rep. Rick Larsen of Washington state, the top Democrat on the infrastructure panel, said the Biden rule seeks to balance the need to protect waters and wetlands with the goals of the Clean Water Act and sometimes conflicting opinions of the Supreme Court.

“The Biden rule is not perfect. But, in my opinion, it is a far better starting place for certainty, legality and protecting the quality of our nation’s waters than the (Trump-era) Dirty Water Rule,'' Larsen said.

The GOP bid to overturn the Biden rule is likely to create more uncertainty and further muddle which waters remain protected by the Clean Water Act, he said.

A Congressional Review Act resolution requires a simple majority in both chambers and can’t be filibustered. Democrats hold a 51-49 Senate majority, but Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., is in the hospital being treated for depression and is unavailable for votes.

Manchin, who represents an energy-producing state and frequently clashes with Democrats on environmental issues, said the Biden rule "would interject further regulatory confusion, place unnecessary burdens on small businesses, farmers and local communities, and cause serious economic damage.”

The White House said in a statement that the clean water rule will reliably guide business and agriculture, adding that overturning the rule would create more uncertainty.

Nine Democrats voted to overturn the water rule: Reps. Sanford Bishop and David Scott of Georgia; Jim Costa and Jimmy Panetta of California; Angie Craig of Minnesota; Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas; Donald Davis of North Carolina; and Jared Golden of Maine.

Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick was the sole Republican to oppose the overturn effort.

___

Phillis reported from St. Louis. ___

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

Biden administration has called for protecting mature US forests to slow climate change, but it's still allowing them to be logged

William Moomaw, Professor Emeritus of International Environmental Policy, Tufts University 

 Beverly Law, Professor Emeritus of Global Change Biology and Terrestrial Systems Science, Oregon State University

THE CONVERSATION
Thu, March 9, 2023

An old-growth tree that was cut in Alaska's Tongass National Forest. Salwan Georges/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Forests are critically important for slowing climate change. They remove huge quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – 30% of all fossil fuel emissions annually – and store carbon in trees and soils. Old and mature forests are especially important: They handle droughts, storms and wildfires better than young trees, and they store more carbon.

In a 2022 executive order, President Joe Biden called for conserving mature and old-growth forests on federal lands. Recently Biden protected nearly half of the Tongass National Forest in Alaska from road-building and logging.

The Biden administration is compiling an inventory of mature and old-growth forests on public lands that will support further conservation actions. But at the same time, federal agencies are initiating and implementing numerous logging projects in mature and old forests without accounting for how these projects will affect climate change or forest species.

As scientists who have spent decades studying forest ecosystems and climate change impacts, we find that to effectively slow climate change, it is essential to increase carbon storage in these forests, not reduce it. A first step toward this goal would be to halt logging federal forests with relatively high-biomass carbon per acre until the Biden administration develops a plan for conserving them.
Balancing timber and climate change

Many of the 640 million acres that the federal government owns and manages are used for multiple purposes, including protecting biodiversity and water quality, recreation, mining, grazing and logging. Sometimes these uses conflict with one another.

Legal mandates to manage land for multiple uses do not explicitly mention climate change, and federal agencies have not consistently factored climate change science into their plans. However, at the beginning of 2023, the White House Council on Environmental Quality directed federal agencies to consider the effects of climate change when they propose major federal actions that significantly affect the environment.

Some logging projects fall into this category. But many large logging projects that affect thousands of acres have been legally exempted from such analysis.

Logging roads crisscross steep logged slopes in Idaho’s Clearwater National Forest in 2019. Don & Melinda Crawford/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

What’s lost when old trees are cut

Most forests in the continental U.S. have been harvested multiple times. Today, fewer than 5% of these forests are more than 100 years old. Old, very large trees are the ones that hold the most carbon, and harvesting forests is the main driver of forest carbon loss.

For example, in Oregon’s national forests east of the Cascades crest, a 1990s policy formerly spared trees larger than 21 inches in diameter – but the rule was rolled back in 2021 so that large trees could be cut. A recent analysis found that these larger trees comprised just 3% of all trees in the six national forests, but accounted for 42% of living tree carbon.

In the Green Mountain National Forest in Vermont, federal officials have approved 40,000 acres of harvest since 2016, targeting many mature and old trees. One 14,270-acre area that was approved for harvest in 2019 contained more than 130 stands older than 100 years. This project required the construction of 25 miles of logging roads, which can have harmful effects, including fragmenting forests, polluting streams and making forests more vulnerable to human-caused wildfires.

Canada is also allowing large, mature trees to be harvested. In British Columbia, mature forests that include old-growth trees historically absorbed more carbon than they released to the atmosphere, resulting in a net carbon sink annually. But since 2002, these tracts have emitted more carbon than they removed from the atmosphere, primarily because of logging, beetle attacks and wildfires. According to British Columbia’s greenhouse gas emissions inventory, these forests now emit more carbon than the province’s energy sector.

In eastern Canada, the Pacific Northwest and the southeastern U.S., timber companies have removed many old trees and replaced them with plantations that contain just one or two tree species. This shift has reduced the structural diversity of the forest canopy – the ecologically important layer formed by the crowns of trees – and the diversity of tree species. Losing old-forest habitat has also caused broad-scale population declines among many forest bird species in eastern Canada, and is likely having the same effect in the U.S.

More harvesting releases more carbon

One argument forest product companies make to support logging is that wood can be regrown, and it releases less carbon dioxide to the atmosphere than other building materials. Such claims often make optimistic assumptions that overstate the carbon benefits of harvesting trees by factors of 2 to 100.

Some studies indicate that thinning forests by harvesting some trees and reintroducing low-intensity fires can reduce the intensity of future wildfires, leaving more carbon stored in trees. But these studies don’t account for the large amount of carbon that is released to the atmosphere after trees are cut.

In a review published in 2019, we worked with colleagues to estimate how much carbon was contained in trees that were harvested in Washington, Oregon and California from 1900 through 2015, and what happened to it after the trees were logged. We calculated that just 19% of the harvested carbon was in long-lived wood products like timber in buildings. Another 16% was in landfills, and the remaining 65% was released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide.

In contrast, in 2011 the Australian state of Tasmania suspended logging on half of its old-growth forest area. Within less than a decade, Tasmania was storing more carbon than it released because it was avoiding harvest emissions and the mature trees it saved were accumulating so much carbon.

In the U.S. Pacific Northwest, implementation of the 1994 Northwest Forest Plan, which the Clinton administration developed to protect endangered species in old-growth forests on public lands, significantly increased carbon storage over the next 17 years. In contrast, privately managed lands in the region accumulated virtually no additional carbon after accounting for losses from wildfire and harvesting.

A logging truck in the Pacific Northwest in 1954. Since 1600, 90% of the original forests in what is now the U.S. have been logged. Universal History Archive via Getty Images
The cheapest and simplest way to capture carbon

President Biden has set a goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero by 2050 to avoid catastrophic climate change. To reach that goal, U.S. forests, lands and oceans will have to remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as the nation emits from fossil fuels, industry and agriculture.

In the western U.S., our research shows that protecting half of the mature carbon-dense forests in zones that are relatively less vulnerable to drought and fire could triple carbon stocks and accumulation on protected forests by 2050. A majority of these forests are on public lands.

The carbon dioxide that human activities are releasing into the atmosphere today will elevate global temperatures and raise sea levels for 1,000 years or more, unless societies can find ways to remove it. In its 2022 climate assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that protecting existing natural forests was “the highest priority for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Conserving forests is one of the lowest-cost options for managing carbon dioxide emissions, and it doesn’t require expensive or complex energy-consuming technologies. In our view, sufficient science exists to justify a moratorium on harvesting mature trees on federal lands so that these forests can keep performing their invaluable work.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. 

It was written by: Beverly Law, Oregon State University and William Moomaw, Tufts University.

Read more:

Restoring California’s forests to reduce wildfire risks will take time, billions of dollars and a broad commitment

A volcanic eruption 39 million years ago buried a forest in Peru – now the petrified trees are revealing South America’s primeval history

William Moomaw receives funding from the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He is affiliated with the Woodwell Climate Research Center and the Union of Concerned Scientists. Moomaw has been a lead author of five major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.

Beverly Law does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Biden once again targets fossil fuel benefits in budget proposal


Rachel Frazin
Thu, March 9, 2023 

President Biden is once again taking aim at government subsidies for the fossil fuel industry in his new budget proposal after a contentious year between the administration and the industry.

Biden’s proposal – which is highly unlikely to be taken up by Congress — would raise $31 billion by “eliminating special tax treatment for oil and gas company investments, as well as other fossil fuel tax preferences,” said a White House fact sheet.

Another fact sheet described the proposal as “cutting wasteful spending on Big Pharma, Big Oil, and other special interests.”

Biden has previously proposed getting rid of incentives for this industry, but this year’s proposal comes after he had repeatedly slammed oil company profits in the wake of high gasoline prices.

The industry has pushed back, citing disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accusing Biden of attempting to “vilify” energy companies.

The proposal also includes a number of items the administration said would reduce Americans’ energy bills, including $375 million for grants to assist weatherization of homes and $800 million for efficiency upgrades through LIHEAP, the Department of Health and Human Services’ Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program.

Another $300 million would go to improving energy efficiency and climate resilience in public housing, while more than $5 billion would go to fund climate and energy-efficient technology research at various agencies and bureaus, including the Interior Department, the Commerce Department, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Science Foundation.

The budget would put $35 million toward creating a new laboratory at a historically Black college or university through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

The proposed budget also would require the Department of Agriculture to target all funding for new or rehabilitated rural housing construction toward projects “that improve energy or water efficiency, implement green features, or address climate resilience.”

It also includes a provision for a regional U.S. Energy-Water Demonstration Facility through the Energy Department, which would go toward projects exploring the intersection of energy and water in national watersheds.

Every year the president puts out a budget proposal indicating their priorities for the year.

However, Congress, not the president, has the power to appropriate funds, and typically does not go along with what the president proposes, particularly given the 60-vote threshold for Senate passage that all but guarantees bipartisan input each year.