GAZA:  Genocidal violence

Editorial

Published November 16, 2024 

DAWN


A RECENTLY released UN report confirms what many around the world already know: that Israel has been using genocidal violence to wipe out the Palestinian population in Gaza. As per the findings of the UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices, Tel Aviv “is intentionally causing death, starvation and serious injury” in the besieged Palestinian territory. Moreover, the report finds that Israel’s practices in Gaza “are consistent with the characteristics of genocide”. This is no empty rhetoric, as the UN body has documented several examples of Israeli savagery in Gaza ever since the events of Oct 7, 2023. For instance, the UN committee says by February, Israel had dropped over 25,000 tonnes of explosives on the tiny Strip; this is the equivalent of two nuclear bombs used against defenceless people. Israel is often hailed by its admirers for its tech savviness; it turns out that Tel Aviv is using its tech know-how with murderous precision in Palestine. The UN report highlights that Tel Aviv is using “AI-assisted targeting, with minimal human oversight”. This means that machines are drawing up ‘kill lists’, which the Israelis are adhering to faithfully. An earlier UN investigation had also found there are “reasonable grounds” to believe Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.

Damning as these findings are, Israel has little consideration for what the UN or the world community has to say. Israel has already declared the UN secretary general ‘persona non grata’. The Zionist state knows it has the world’s sole superpower in its corner, and come January an array of pro-Israel hawks will take the reins in the Trump administration, further emboldening the extremists in Tel Aviv. European states mouth occasional entreaties about protecting the Palestinians while solidly backing Israel; on their part, the Muslim-Arab bloc can only issue strong statements in solidarity with Palestine. Is it any surprise, then, that Israel can get away with a modern, live-streamed genocidal campaign?

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

With Trump, already negligible US distance with Israel to vanish

Biden admin's stance had already shifted to unwavering support for Tel Aviv after the Oct 7 attacks, despite growing criticism.

AFP | Dawn.com 

Published November 16, 2024

For more than a year, the United States has steadfastly backed Israel in its invasion of Gaza while quietly counselling restraint on occasion. With Donald Trump’s return, the little nuance present will vanish, although his hunger for deal-making makes him less predictable.

Trump, unlike every other recent president, has not even paid lip service to a fully sovereign, independent Palestinian state.

He leads a Republican Party so pro-Israel that some local offices handed out Israeli flags alongside Trump yard signs — a far cry from President Joe Biden, whose support for Israel faced fierce criticism from the left of his Democratic Party.

And while Biden’s two ambassadors to Israel were Jewish Americans who would occasionally nudge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s pick is evangelical Christian pastor Mike Huckabee, a former governor who sees biblical reason to champion Israel.

Other Trump nominees include Senator Marco Rubio — a hawk on Iran — as secretary of state, and Representative Elise Stefanik, who made waves by assailing universities’ handling of pro-Palestinian protests, as US ambassador to the United Nations.

“They’re, like, more pro-Israel than most Israelis,” said Asher Fredman, director of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, an Israeli think tank.

He expected Trump to take an “America First” approach aimed at reducing US military resources and refocusing on countering China — which means both empowering Israel to fight enemies and encouraging its normalisation with Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia.

“There is really tremendous paradigm-shifting potential in a number of realms, such as advancing regional cooperation and putting maximum pressure on Iran,” Fredman said.
End of Biden’s approach

According to Anadolu Agency, while the Biden administration had previously balanced its approach by supporting Israel’s defence against Iran and endorsing a two-state solution, its stance shifted to unwavering support for Tel Aviv after the attacks, despite growing national and international criticism.

During the October 18, 2023 visit to Israel, Biden expressed unwavering support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, affirming the US’ solid backing.

Biden sought an additional $17.9 billion in military aid for Israel upon his return, supplementing the annual $3.5bn it already receives.

While Biden issued a memorandum in February requiring Congress to be notified if any US-funded country deliberately blocked humanitarian aid, the administration faced scrutiny for its response to humanitarian concerns in Gaza.

Blinken told Congress in May that Israel was not intentionally preventing humanitarian aid, despite reports from USAID suggesting that Israel was hindering the delivery of food assistance to Gaza.

The State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration also recommended freezing funds to Israel because of humanitarian concerns, though the calls were ultimately unheeded.

Additionally, Biden’s administration vetoed three UN Security Council resolutions calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, which heightened international criticism.

Biden has also criticised Netanyahu on occasion for the heavy toll on civilians in the relentless bombardment in Gaza and unsuccessfully sought to prevent the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

But Biden has only once exercised the ultimate US leverage — holding some of the billions of dollars in military aid to Israel — with officials insisting their quiet approach has paid off.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in a mid-October letter gave Israel a month to allow more assistance into Gaza or face cutoffs of some US weapons.

They ultimately decided not to take action, despite Israel not meeting metrics on the number of aid trucks and a new UN-backed assessment warning of imminent famine in Gaza.

Blinken told reporters Wednesday that the letter succeeded in injecting a “sense of urgency” to Israel, which addressed 12 of the 15 listed areas of concern.

Allison McManus, managing director for national security and international policy at the left-leaning Centre for American Progress, said the letter had offered an opening but that Biden wanted “near unconditional support” for Israel to be his legacy.

“Biden was very risk-averse — not wanting to rock the boat too much in terms of the traditional US support for Israel,” she said.

“He was dogmatic and quite orthodox in approaching the US-Israel relationship. Trump is, certainly, neither of those things,” she said.

Despite Trump’s stance on a Palestinian state, he has also boasted of seeking historic deals.

“There is certainly a world in which, if Netanyahu is obstinate, as he has been in reaching a ceasefire, then I wouldn’t be surprised if we actually see Trump applying some pressure,” she said.

“What that would look like, I don’t know.”

Deal not easy

Aaron David Miller, a longtime State Department advisor on the Middle East, said that Trump’s previous term showed a foreign policy that was “opportunistic, transactional and ad hoc.”

He said that Huckabee could turn out to be a “performative appointment” for political reasons, as top officials in Washington often work directly with their Middle Eastern counterparts.

But Miller said that even if Trump sought a Gaza deal, he would face some of the same impediments as Biden — the risk of Hamas surviving and the lack so far of a new security architecture.

“He cannot end the war in Gaza and won’t pressure Netanyahu to do so,” said Miller, now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Elie Pieprz, director of international relations at the Israel Defence and Security Forum, said that Trump’s victory had already yielded wins for Israel, including Qatar distancing itself from mediating with Hamas and a more conciliatory tone from Iran.

As Biden had a “difficult” relationship with Israel, Trump will likely seek to ease friction, Pieprz said.

“Trump likes to see things in comparison to his opponents,” he said. Much like his domestic slogan, Pieprz said, Trump wants to “make the US-Israel relationship great again. “

Header image: Donald Trump meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara at the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, US, on July 26, 2024. — screengrab via Reuters

HRW accuses Israel of ‘war crime’ with ‘forcible transfer’ in Gaza


By AFP
November 14, 2024

Palestinians displaced from shelters in Beit Hanoun cross the main Salaheddine road into Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip following Israeli army evacuation orders 

- Copyright AFP Omar AL-QATTAA

Human Rights Watch said in a report released Thursday that Israel’s repeated evacuation orders in Gaza amount to the “war crime of forcible transfer”, and to “ethnic cleansing” in parts of the Palestinian territory.

“Human Rights Watch has amassed evidence that Israeli officials are… committing the war crime of forcible transfer,” the report said.

“Israel’s actions appear to also meet the definition of ethnic cleansing” in the areas where Palestinians will not be able to return, HRW added.

Nadia Hardman, an HRW researcher, noted the 172-page report’s findings are based on interviews with displaced Gazans, satellite imagery, and public reporting conducted until August 2024.

Although Israel says the displacement is justified for civilians’ safety or by military imperatives, Hardman said that “Israel cannot simply rely on the presence of armed groups to justify the displacement of civilians”.

“Israel would have to demonstrate in every instance that displacement of civilians was the only option”, to fully comply with international humanitarian law.

According to the United Nations, 1.9 million Palestinians were displaced in Gaza as of October 2024. Before the start of the war on October 7, 2023, the official population figure for the territory was 2.4 million inhabitants.

“Systematically rendering large parts of Gaza uninhabitable… in some cases permanently… amounts to ethnic cleansing,” Ahmed Benchemsi, spokesman for HRW’s Middle East division said in a press briefing.

The HRW report pointed in particular to the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, running along the Egyptian border and cutting Gaza along its east-west axis respectively, which have been “razed, extended, and cleared”, by Israel’s army to create buffer zones and security corridors.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted that Israeli forces must retain long-term control over the Philadelphi Corridor.

Hardman said Israeli forces have turned the central Netzarim corridor, between Gaza City and Wadi Gaza, into a buffer zone four kilometres (2.5 miles) wide mostly cleared of buildings.


– ‘Wipe out the north’ –


The report excludes developments in the war since August 2024, particularly an intense Israeli offensive in northern Gaza since early October 2024.

The operation has forced the displacement of at least 100,000 people from the Palestinian territory’s far north to Gaza City and surrounding areas, UN Palestinian refugee agency spokeswoman Louise Wateridge told AFP.

Ragheb al-Rubaiya, a 63-year-old Palestinian from north Gaza’s Jabalia Camp, said to AFP that he had been driven from his home after “bombing started from the air and the tanks, and they drove us out against our will”.

“They’re destroying everything in Jabalia, and the goal is clear even to the blind: to wipe out the north and cut it off from Gaza,” he added.

HRW’s report argued “the actions of the Israeli authorities in Gaza are the actions of one ethnic or religious group to remove Palestinians, another ethnic or religious group, from areas within Gaza by violent means”.

It pointed to the organised nature of the displacement, and the intention for Israeli forces to ensure affected areas will “remain permanently emptied and cleansed of Palestinians”.

Nature pays price for war in Israel’s north


By AFP
November 14, 2024

A flock of pelicans flies over the Hula Valley in northern Israel during their winter migration from Europe to Africa - Copyright AFP Menahem KAHANA

Ahikam Seri with Ruth Eglash in Tel Dan

Across northern Israel’s lush, green nature reserves, the ecological toll of the war between Israel and Hezbollah militants is laid bare: wild boar hit by shrapnel, trees reduced to ashes and swathes of charred vegetation.

In the Hula Valley, home to a unique migration sanctuary for birds, a flock of common cranes and their cacophony of calls fill the air — but smoke billows in the distance and their sounds soon compete with the whir of Israeli military helicopters overhead.

The impact is particularly clear at the Agamon Hula Valley Nature Reserve, where all that remains in some areas after more than a year of Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon are burned plants and cinder-strewn soil.

Inbar Rubin, field director at the reserve, worries about the war’s effects on birds.

“The noises of war, the sounds of interceptions, of (rockets) falling and the loud booms — these are the sounds that birds hear,” Rubin said. “It’s a huge source of stress.”

The war has driven visitors away from the reserve, which sits approximately 30 kilometres (19 miles) from the border with Lebanon.

“People say to me, ‘Wow, the birds must be happier because there are no people,’ but the damage the war does to nature is a million times more than the damage visitors do.”

The reserve is an internationally known resting spot for hundreds of millions of birds migrating from Europe and Asia to Africa and back during the spring and autumn seasons.

It is home to pelicans, ducks, eagles and other birds of prey, as well as flamingos, which Rubin said is “a fairly new phenomenon”.

But she noted that fewer birds were stopping at the sanctuary than in previous seasons, adding there was “much less nesting than in normal years” and reduced mating.



– Paradise lost? –



Hezbollah began launching low-intensity attacks on Israel last year, in solidarity with its ally Hamas following the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack.

After nearly a year of trading cross-border fire with Hezbollah, Israel widened the focus of its operations from Gaza to Lebanon, launching a massive aerial campaign and sending ground forces across the border.

The bombing has devastated villages in Lebanon, especially areas along its southern border with Israel, where Hezbollah holds sway.

Around 50,000 cranes came to the reserve the previous winter, said longtime ornithologist Yossi Leshem, “and for them, it was really paradise”.

But after the Israel-Hezbollah war started, he added, the number of birds arriving dropped by 70 percent.

“It is a real threat,” said Leshem, also the founder of an international bird migration research centre. The fighting and fires have also caused food resources for the birds to dwindle.

“Even if the war will stop in a year now — and I hope it will stop as soon as possible… the impact can be felt for many more years,” he told AFP.

In the long term, however, the conflict would not ultimately change the birds’ pattern of migration, Leshem said. The birds passing through will be “less successful and so on, but finally, when the war stops, it (migration) goes on”.

The damage is not limited to the reserve.

Israel’s nature and parks authority has assessed that since the October 7 Hamas attack, around 92,400 acres (37,400 hectares) of nature reserves, national parks, forests and open areas have been burned across the country.

“The damage to nature is of course extensive and in numbers we are not used to,” said Amit Dolev, an ecologist for the authority’s northern district.

Israel’s military has said nearly 16,000 projectiles, including exploding drones, have been fired into the country from Lebanese territory, many sparking wildfires.

Others, shot down by Israel’s military, have sent shrapnel flying into open areas.



– Nature’s resilience –



At the nature reserve of Tel Dan, adjacent to the Lebanese border, around 17 acres (seven hectares) out of 400 have been devastated by fires ignited by rockets.

On the banks of the burbling Dan stream, beside the silhouette of a burnt-out blackthorn tree, Ramadan Issa, who manages the reserve, said he had spent the last year putting out fires and rescuing animals injured or distressed by the fighting.

He pointed to suffering wildlife including porcupines, snakes and wild boars injured or killed by missiles or shrapnel, as well as the destruction of ancient trees.

But on the charred earth where he stood, small green blades of grass and vegetation were already sprouting.

“Nature is strong,” Issa said. “It can grow back very fast and after the first (winter) rains, a lot will start to come back.”

COP29 and the quest for an accord acceptable to all

Zaki Abbas in Baku

Published November 16, 2024 

DAWN

At COP29, every day is a ‘leg day’, at least for journalists, who have to run from one block to another, trying to keep up with the various sessions going on simultaneously, all the while trying to get hold of their respective countries’ delegations.

The negotiations, on the other hand, are going nowhere, as the developed and developing worlds bicker over the new climate finance goal, aka the New Collective Quantified Goal.

COP29 was off to a bumpy start since the very first day, and the little headway that has been made is on standards to boost the global carbon market under Article 6.4 of the historic Paris Agreement signed in 2015.

Some of the countries were unhappy with how these guidelines were rushed through without any debate, which may pose a problem at a later stage.

There is, however, little progress on what the carbon markets will look like and how countries will evolve a consensus on carbon credits, which supposedly provide solutions to climate problems.

Controversial carbon markets, non-operationalisation of Loss and Damage fund among key sticking points

By the evening, after a delay of several hours, parties managed to agree in principle on a draft for the new finance goal, but it will be a long time before any final agreement is reached.

Supposedly, the money earned from carbon markets will be part of climate finance — a contentious issue between the North and South — as even after over a decade, its modalities still need to be hammered out.

Interestingly, some Latin American countries such as Venezuela and Ecuador who had opposed such schemes at every climate conference, seemingly gave in this time.

Activists and civil society members at COP29 see these credits as ‘false solutions’, which are not acceptable to them.
Whither loss and damage?

Let’s set aside this controversial topic for a minute. Even the Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund — which was operationalised at COP28 in Dubai — has not picked up steam.

Out of over $700 million in pledges made at the last COP, only $10 million materialised which came from Japan, according to the Loss and Damage Collaboration.

The fund was established at COP27 after 31 years of “inaction, delay and obfuscation by developed country parties since the first proposal for a Loss and Damage finance mechanism was tabled by Vanuatu on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in 1991”.

At present, the fund is empty.

The World Bank, which maintains the secretariat of this fund, says it has no control over the money supposed to be contributed to the account.

Arif Goheer, executive director of the Global Change Impact Study Centre, told Dawn at the Pakistan Pavilion there were losses to the tune of trillions, and the L&D Fund was not equipped to deal with that.

“Loss and Damage does not have even procedures,” Mr Goheer, who is privy to negotiations, said, adding that the fund should be topped up with ample amount of money keeping in view of vulnerabilities of different, especially the most-affected states with no coping capacities.

According to Mr Goheer, since the L&D Fund is for emergencies and natural disasters, it should be given instantly to help the countries cope with it instead of linking it to the project-based funding.

About the negotiations, he said G-77 and China block, which also includes Pakistan, want easy to climate funds as well as easy procedures for accessing them. The talks to agree on a climate finance goal will continue on Saturday, the official added.
Global Stocktake

Similarly, in the first week of COP29, the countries have failed to take the Global Stocktake, which could potentially delay the new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) which all parties are expected to submit by February 2025.

The global stocktake takes a look at the performance of countries with regard to their NDCs as well as set the stage for the more ambitious ones.

The Adaptation Fund has also hit a stonewall due to significant disagreements between developed and developing countries on adaptation-related matters, particularly the provision of Means of Implem­entation (MOI).

Concerns have been expressed by activist groups at COP29, who believe the presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue is counterproductive as they step up their campaign ‘Weed Out the Snakes’ and ‘Let’s Kick Big Polluters Out’.

According to Rachel Ross, there are almost 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists at the venue who are “poisoning” climate action.

On the third day of COP29, the Argentine delegation was abruptly pulled out of the conference on the orders of its president, who is a climate denier.

Its neighbour, COP30 host Brazil, has submitted its NDCs and is poised to host the next conference, which is evident from the massive pavilion in Baku.

On Monday, the conference enters its second phase with ministers from different countries coming together to hammer out an agreement acceptable to all.

Produced as part of the 2024 Climate Change Media Partnership, a journalism fellowship organised by Internews’ Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Centre for Peace and Security.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Oil execs work COP29 as NGOs slam lobbyist presence

By AFP

November 15, 2024

The presence of oil, gas and coal interests at the climate talks has long been a source of controversy - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV

Delphine Paysant with Kelly Macnamara in Paris

Oil executives descended on the COP29 talks in Baku for “energy day” on Friday as environmental groups denounced the presence of fossil fuel industry lobbyists at the UN climate talks.

While negotiators haggle behind closed doors on the key task of increasing climate funds for developing nations, the executives from top oil firms including France’s TotalEnergies are holding events.

The “Kick the Big Polluters Out” (KBPO) coalition of NGOs analysed accreditations at the annual climate confab, calculating that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests are in attendance.

“It’s like tobacco lobbyists at a conference on lung cancer,” David Tong from campaign group Oil Change International told AFP.

The presence of oil, gas and coal interests at the climate talks has long been a source of controversy.

The appointment of UAE state oil firm head Sultan Al Jaber to the presidency of last year’s negotiations in Dubai was a lightning rod for criticism.

And this year’s host, energy-rich Azerbaijan, launched a defence of planet-heating fossil fuels, with President Ilham Aliyev on Tuesday repeating his insistence that oil, gas and other natural resources are a “gift of God”.

“It’s unfortunate that the fossil fuel industry and the petrostates have seized control of the COP process to an unhealthy degree,” former US vice president and leading climate activist Al Gore said Thursday.

While the Dubai summit produced a global agreement on “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, the follow-up commitment “has been very weak” and the issue “is hardly even mentioned” at COP29, he said.

“I have to think that one of the reasons for that is that the petrostates have too much control over the process,” he said.



– Wrangling on finance –



KBPO said Japan brought employees of coal giant Sumitomo as part of its delegation, Canada included oil producers Suncor and Tourmaline and Italy brought employees of energy giants Eni and Enel.

However, some of those on the NGO list work for companies that are not primarily fossil fuel-related, including Danish offshore wind champion Orsted.

Some 53,000 people have registered to participate in COP29 in Baku, not including technical and support staff, according to the UN.

The top priority at the talks is to agree a new figure for climate finance to help developing countries adapt to climate change and transition their economies away from fossil fuels.

Rich nations are reluctant to spend much more than the $100-billion a year already committed, conscious of domestic publics angry about inflation and stuttering economies.

But developing countries warn they need at least $1 trillion to defend against the ravages of climate change and meet commitments to reach net-zero emissions.

Negotiators are struggling to wrangle a draft text into workable form before ministers arrive next week to start nailing down a deal.

Hanging over proceedings is the question of what role the United States will play on climate action and funding after Trump returns to the White House in January.

He has pledged to again withdraw from the landmark Paris agreement, raising questions about how much US negotiators can really promise and deliver in Baku.

But Gore insisted that “there is so much more momentum that even a new Trump administration is not going to be able to slow it down much,” echoed the line from other Americans at the talks.

“I hope I’m right about that,” he added.

Gore says ‘absurd’ to hold UN climate talks in petrostates


By  AFP
November 15, 2024


Former US vice president Al Gore told AFP fossil fuel industry representatives should go through a 'test' to be allowed to attend UN climate talks - Copyright AFP Kate GILLAM
Julien MIVIELLE

US vice president Al Gore told AFP Friday it was “absurd” for petrostates such as Azerbaijan to host UN climate talks, saying the selection process should be overhauled.

Mukhtar Babayev, a former oil executive who now serves as Azerbaijan’s ecology minister, chairs COP29 in Baku while the country’s leader, Ilham Aliyev, caused a stir this week by calling fossil fuels a “gift of the God”.

It comes after last year’s climate talks in the oil-dependent United Arab Emirates — presided over by the head of its state oil company — also raised hackles among activists.

“I think it is absurd to have these petrostates that are so dependent on continuing the sale of oil and gas be the hosts of these COPs, because it’s hard to miss the fact that they have a direct conflict of interest,” Gore told AFP.

“The president said they’re a gift from God, and I understand his sentiment, but in my opinion we should reform this process,” the Nobel Peace Prize laureate said.

Azerbaijan was picked to host COP29 after Bulgaria dropped out due to Russian objections to having the conference held in a European Union country.

It was Eastern Europe’s turn to host this year’s Conference of the Parties.

Speaking on the sidelines of the talks in Baku, Gore said the United Nations secretary general should be able to participate in the selection process for cities and COP presidents.

The current process “meant that Russia vetoed everyone except Azerbaijan. And of course, they’re a petrostate also,” said Gore, who is chairman of The Climate Reality Project, a non-profit.



– Trump can’t stop ‘revolution’ –



Gore’s criticism echoed a letter Friday by a group of leading climate activists and scientists, including former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, who warned that the COP process was “no longer fit for purpose”.

They urged smaller, more frequent meetings, strict criteria for host countries and rules to ensure companies showed clear climate commitments before being allowed to send lobbyists to the talks.

“I think that there should be a test for who is qualified to be a delegate to these COPs. Are they coming to try to find a solution or are they coming in order to block a solution?” Gore said.

Oil and gas industry representatives should be scrutinised to see if they are committed to phasing out fossil fuels, and if they are “truth tellers” or “have a record of lying about the climate crisis”, he said.

His comments came as a coalition of NGOs, “Kick the Big Polluters Out”, said it calculated that more than 1,700 people linked to fossil fuel interests are in attendance at COP29.

“Why should representatives of the biggest polluters in the world have more delegates than the largest national delegation, more delegates than the 10 most affected countries in the world?” Gore said.

“I think it’s absurd. And I do think that the whole process needs to be reformed.”

COP29 attendees are also worried about the future of US climate efforts as Trump has vowed to withdraw from the Paris agreement again.

But Gore downplayed concerns, saying his return to the White House would not “meaningfully slow” the clean energy “revolution”.

“The election of Trump may slow things slightly,” Gore said, but the energy transition is “unstoppable”.

Trump’s Republican allies tread lightly on Paris pact at COP29


By AFP
November 16, 2024

Texas Congressman August Pfluger said US voters had given Trump a mandate to bring costs down - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV, Ting Shen

Laurent Thomet and Ivan Couronne

Donald Trump’s Republican allies in Congress showed up at UN climate talks to tout natural gas and nuclear energy, but they tiptoed around the elephant in the room: a looming US withdrawal from the Paris agreement.

President Joe Biden’s climate envoys have sought to reassure delegates in Baku this week, telling them that Trump’s planned pullout from the pact would have little impact on the global battle against climate change.

The handful of Republican lawmakers who made the trip to Azerbaijan’s capital on Saturday represent states that are home to oil fields, coal mines and auto manufacturing.

Morgan Griffith, a congressman from Ohio and member of the House energy committee, told AFP that he has supported the Paris agreement in the past.

Asked if he would back a withdrawal, he said: “We don’t want get in front of the president.

“It just depends on, you know, what we deem is in the best interest of the United States,” he added.

Under the Paris agreement, signatories aim to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in the hope of reaching the ideal target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels.

The Republicans, with their backing of the oil and gas sectors, offered a contrasting vision of the fight against climate change to many of the delegates and activists attending the COP29 conference.



– Restore US ‘energy dominance’ –



“In our country there’s a blind rush just to eliminate all fossil fuels and I don’t think that’s practical for the developing world or the already industrialised world,” Griffith said.

Texas Congressman August Pfluger, who led the House energy committee delegation, said the US election had sent a clear signal.

“The people in the United States overwhelmingly supported President Donald Trump and his promise to restore American energy dominance,” Pfluger said at a news conference.

When asked about the Paris agreement, Pfluger said American voters “spoke very loud and clear” about their desire to see inflation come under control when they elected Trump on November 5.

“Energy is the foundation of that,” he added.

“If an agreement is going to hurt, if something is going to actually decrease our ability to do that, then we would want to look at that. But that’s for the president to say.”



– ‘Protect’ tax credits –



At the US pavilion in the cavernous stadium housing the conference, Griffith and two other congressmen, including a Democrat, sang the praises of nuclear energy as part of the solutions to lowering global emissions.

Heather Reams, president of the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a conservative non-profit that engages Republicans on climate policy, moderated the panel.

She told AFP that her organisation wants the United States to remain in the Paris agreement as it was “symbolic in a lot of ways for the United States to be a leader” on climate.

US officials and Democrats told COP29 delegates that the hundreds of billions of dollars in tax credits and clean energy investments in Biden’s signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, would cushion the blow from Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris pact.

“We are very supportive of those tax credits,” Reams said.

“We intend to try to protect them and make the case to… the new administration and with Republicans in Congress.”

Pfluger said any parts of the IRA incompatible with the goal of lowering prices for Americans would be “looked at” by the next Republican-led Congress in January.


– ‘Negative’ impact –


On the other side of the US political divide, Democratic Senator Ed Markey said the Biden administration could “get as much of the IRA money out the door as it can” before handing the White House keys to Trump in January.

Fellow Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said the United States could also deliver its new emissions-reduction target for 2035 to the United Nations before Trump takes office.

But Trump will still have a “negative” impact on climate, the senator told reporters.

Democrats in Congress will have a hard time blocking Trump’s nominees for energy and environment posts as the minority party.

“A good deal of it is out of our hands,” Whitehouse said.

Fragile countries make $20bn climate finance push at COP29, letter says

Reuters Published November 15, 2024 

Emergency physician Joe Vipond, a member of Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment (CAPE), poses for photographers with a model of the globe as he stands for support of climate agenda during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 15. — Reuters

A group of conflict-affected countries is pushing at COP29 to double financial aid to more than $20 billion a year and combat the natural disaster and security crises facing their populations, a letter seen by Reuters showed.

The group is one of several pitching at the climate talks in Azerbaijan this week for funds to better prepare for the impacts of extreme weather as countries seek to agree to a new annual target on financing.

Island nations, for example, argue climate change threatens their very existence as seas rise, while rainforest nations say they need more money to protect their vast carbon sinks.

Countries mired in conflict and its aftermath say they have struggled to access private investment, as they are seen as too risky. That means UN funds are even more critical to their populations, many of whom have been displaced by war and weather.


In response, the COP29 Azerbaijan Presidency on Friday will launch a new ‘Network of Climate-vulnerable Countries’, including a number of countries that belong to the g7+, an intergovernmental group of fragile countries, which first sent the appeal.

The network aims to advocate as a group with climate finance institutions; build capacity in member states so they can absorb more finance; and create country platforms so investors can more easily find high-impact projects in which to invest, said think tank ODI Global, which helped the countries create the network.

Burundi, Chad, Iraq, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Timor-Leste and Yemen have already joined the initiative, but all 20 members of the g7+ have been invited. “My hope is it will create a real platform for the countries in need,” said Abdullahi Khalif, chief climate negotiator for Somalia on the sidelines of the Baku talks.

The move follows a letter sent by the g7+ to the United Nations, World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund and COP presidencies last month, and shared exclusively with Reuters, asking for more support.

In it, the group demanded an explicit commitment in any final deal on finance at COP29 that would double financing to help them adapt to climate change to at least a collective $20 billion per year by 2026.

While 45 of the world’s least developed countries have their own UN negotiating group, which includes some of the g7+ countries, conflict-affected states face distinct struggles, advocates said.

“A flood situation in South Sudan or Somalia creates more catastrophe than it would in any other developing country,” said Habib Mayar, g7+ deputy general secretary, who helped coordinate the letter.

A child born in South Sudan, which has been mired in war since 2013, was 38 times more likely in 2022 to be internally displaced by climate-related disasters than a European or North American child, according to Unicef data.

Yet conflict-affected countries received only $8.4bn in climate funding in 2022 about a quarter of what was needed, according to a 2024 analysis by ODI Global.

“It’s clear that climate funds aren’t doing enough to support the world’s most climate vulnerable people,” said Mauricio Vazquez, ODI Global’s head of policy for global risks and resilience, said.

Climate ambition gap

Aisha Khan 

Published November 15, 2024 

DAWN

AS the world inches closer to catastrophe, all eyes are on the Conference of Parties (COP) taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan.

The opening speeches from the COP28 UAE presidency, COP29 Azer presidency, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary all made the links between climate action and finance needs.

Climate finance was at the heart of the agenda, with parties eager to discuss means of implementation to support delivery of the Global Stock-take outcome. Political engagement to break the gridlock on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) will be crucial for countries to enhance ambition on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 to meet mitigation and adaptation targets.

The NDC announcements from the UAE and Brazil are welcome signals from two of the COP troika on their commitments to multilateral climate action. However, the troika countries collectively plan to expand oil and gas production by 32 per cent by 2035 (Brazil 36pc, UAE 34pc, and Azerbaijan 14pc).

With a packed agenda and only two weeks to move the needle on critical and contentious issues, it is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.

It is important to reflect on facts and figures to develop a better understanding of the state of play and what’s at stake.

The report on Doubling Adaptation Finance, released by the developed countries, states that the developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $32.4 billion in adaptation finance in 2022, including a total of $28.9bn in international public finance, an increase of nearly 23pc over 2021 levels and 54pc over 2019 levels. According to the report, significant progress has been made towards doubling adaptation finance from 2019 levels in the first three years of available data, and efforts are on track to reach $40bn by 2025.

The International Energy Agency acknowledges the momentum on decarbonisation, with record rollout of renewable energy and a scaling-up of electric vehicles, but expresses concern that the progress is not enough to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold alive. The IEA finds that governments are still responsible for around $1 trillion of energy sector investment today and will need to increase net-zero investments by about 40pc by 2035.

The World Meteorological Organisation report outlines that CO2 concentrations have increased 11.4pc in just 20 years, with the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere locking in future temperature increase.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development reports that in 2022, developed countries provided and mobilised a total of $115.9bn in climate finance for developing countries. This occurred with a delay of two years from the original 2020 target, but public finance accounted for close to 80pc of the total in 2022, and increased from $38bn in 2013 to $91.6bn in 2022. Mitigation continued to account for 60pc of the total and public climate finance grew by 52pc following several years of stagnation.

The Biennial Assessment of Climate Finance Flows prepared by the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance states that global climate finance flows in 2021-2022 increased by 63pc compared to those in 2019-2020, reaching an annual average of $1.3tr, and tracked adaptation finance increased by 28pc to an annual average of $63bn in 2021-2022. The report acknowledges that more than half of the global climate finance was provided in the form of debt instruments, while grant finance more than doubled in absolute terms but still accounted for only 6pc of the total flow.

The UN Trade and Development report on the NCQG outlines the climate finance needed from the developed countries to developing countries to meet the Paris Agreement goals. It concludes that the developing countries require $1.1tr in climate finance from 2025, rising to around $1.8tr by 2030. Based on these numbers, developed countries should anticipate a funding equivalent of three quarters of the investments needed in developing countries for climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as supporting response to climate-induced loss and damage.

Accordingly, the NCQG contribution target for developed countries should be around $0.89tr in 2025, reaching up to $1.46tr by the fifth year of implementation. This would imply a target for around 1.4pc of developed countries’ GDP per year from 2025 until 2030, and then reviewed to make it equivalent to around 2pc of developing countries’ GDP.

And finally, the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2024 raises alarm with its findings that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew by 1.3pc year-on-year to 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. The mitigation pledges for 2030-2035 are not on track and need to be 26 gigatons of carbon dioxide lower for a warming limit of 1.5ºC.

Clearly, the ambition gap is widening, the need gap growing and the window of opportunity shrinking. GHG emissions are dangerously high and cash flows dismally small and slow. It is unlikely that COP29 will succeed in issuing a declaration that satisfies everyone. However, the goal of 1.5 still remains within reach but delay in action is not an option.

For Pakistan, the current temperature trends mean an increase in climate-induced hazards, more loss and damage, and a higher risk of sinking deeper into a debt and poverty trap.

It is time to reconcile with reality and accept the fact that total reliance on external support for succour is not a gamble that the country can afford.

Pakistan needs to reset its priorities and align them with the national security policy, making geo-economics and governance reforms its top action agenda. Now is perhaps the last opportunity for making long-term strategic choices to prepare the country for a future with a new socioeconomic and political climate.

The writer is the chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, November 15th, 2024

Optimising COP29

Gulmina Bilal Ahmad 

Published November 14, 2024 

DAWN

THE global demand for skilled workers in green technologies is growing. This is important for Pakistan, where climate change and environmental degradation are urgent concerns. Green Technical and Vocational Education and Training is vital for developing skills needed to make key industries sustainable. However, substantial challenges remain in fully integrating Green TVET into the national development framework.

With COP29 in Baku focused on climate action and sustainable workforce development, Pakistan has an opportunity to formalise Green TVET strategies. Indeed, the country’s vulnerability to climate change underscores the need for Green TVET. Pakistan is among the top 10 countries most affected by the impact of climate change. It accrues an annual loss of $3.8 billion due to extreme weather events. The industrial and agricultural sectors, contributing more than 40 per cent of GDP and employing over 60pc of the workforce, are heavily reliant on obsolete, environmentally damaging practices, thus making it critical to transition to eco-friendly methods.

However, in adopting Green TVT, Pakistan will face several structural and economic hurdles, one challenge being the absence of a comprehensive national policy connecting green economic goals to vocational training. Although environmental concerns have been partially addressed in the National Climate Change Policy, the latter does not prioritise workforce development for green sectors. This indicates an institutional disconnect with organisations that are attempting to bridge the gap by integrating green skills into their programmes.

Incorporating green skills requires strategic focus and institutional coordination. For instance, the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission has introduced some foundational green skills, aimed at building awareness of sustainable practices. However, these efforts require substantial expansion.


Industry demand for green skills remains low in Pakistan.

At COP29, where global leaders are discussing climate action and workforce development, Pakistan can advocate for Green TVET on an international platform. Efforts of organisations, such as the NAVTTC, could benefit from aligning with frameworks emerging from the climate conference, potentially securing commitments for funding and support from international partners. Such alliances could enable them to expand Green TVET programming and help Pakistan achieve both its climate and economic objectives.

There is also not much awareness of or demand for green skills among employers. Many industries lack an understanding of the benefits of green skills; their motivation to adopt sustainable practices is thus reduced. Critical sectors, including the construction industry and agriculture, still depend on resource-intensive methods, as they perceive the transition costs to be high. For instance, the construction sector, which contributes over 2pc to GDP, often resorts to energy-inefficient practices, while agriculture — the largest employment sector — has been slow to adopt climate-smart techniques.

These challenges deter TVET institutions from investing in green training programmes as industry demand for these skills remains low. Creating awareness and a demand for green skills within industries requires focused outreach and partnerships to educate employers on the long-term economic benefits of sustainable practices.

Many vocational institutions also lack modern equipment, which is essential for teaching technologies, such as those related to solar panel installation or sustainable agriculture practices. Nearly half our TVET institutions are under-resour­c­­ed, highlighting an immediate need to upgrade facilities to meet the demands of a green economy. Securing these up­­grades is challenging as budget allocations are limited. Pakistan’s TVET se­­­ctor receives around 2.5pc of the national education budget, which would need to be scaled up in order to match countries that prioritise vocational training. Private sector investment in green skills training is also minimal, and although international funding options, such as the Green Climate Fund, exist, Pakistan has to do much more to access these resources.

Investing in Green TVET can speed up both economic growth and environmental resilience. By establishing cohesive policies, raising industry awareness, securing funding, and promoting TVET, Pakistan can build a workforce capable of supporting sustainable development in core sectors of the economy. This shift will not only reduce Pakistan’s environmental footprint but also position the country as a proactive participant in the global green economy, aligning with COP29’s objectives and working towards a more sustainable future.

The writer is the chairperson of the National Vocational and Technical Training Commission.

chairperson@navttc.gov.pk

Published in Dawn, November 14th, 2024

COP29 host tries to calm waters after diplomatic turmoil

By AFP
November 14, 2024

Azerbaijan's lead negotiator at COP29 said 'our doors are still open' after France's environment minister cancelled her trip - Copyright AFP/File Alexander NEMENOV

Delphine PAYSANT, Laurent THOMET

Host Azerbaijan tried to bring down the diplomatic temperature in Baku on Thursday after a French minister cancelled her trip to the UN climate talks and Argentina withdrew its delegation.

While negotiators work behind closed doors at the COP29 talks to trash out a climate finance deal, the spotlight has been largely stolen by diplomatic turmoil.

France’s Environment Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said Wednesday she would not travel to Baku after Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev accused Paris of colonial “crimes” and “human rights violations” in its overseas territories.

Pannier-Runacher called his speech “unacceptable… and beneath the dignity of the presidency of the COP.”

It was also a “flagrant violation of the code of conduct” for running United Nations climate talks, she added.

Attempting to calm the waters on Thursday, COP29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev insisted that Azerbaijan had fostered “an inclusive process”.

“We have opened our doors to everybody to come to engage in very constructive, fruitful discussions,” he told reporters.

“Our doors are still open.”

Relations between Paris and Baku have long been tense over France’s support for Azerbaijan’s arch-rival Armenia.

Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in a lightning offensive last year when it retook the breakaway Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh — leading to an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians.



– ‘Diplomatic matter’ –



Aliyev has hailed the victory in remarks to delegates and also raised eyebrows by insisting natural resources including carbon-emitting fossil fuels were a “gift from God”.

The EU’s climate commissioner said the climate talks “should be a place where all parties feel at liberty to come and negotiate.”

“The COP Presidency has a particular responsibility to enable and enhance that,” Wopke Hoekstra posted on X.

Compounding the diplomatic turmoil, Argentina’s delegation was abruptly pulled from the talks.

An environment ministry source confirmed the departure but declined to offer more detail.

Argentina’s anti-establishment President Javier Milei has made no secret of his scepticism of climate change and is an ally of newly reelected former US president Donald Trump.

While Argentina’s delegation was small, its departure “is unprecedented in the country’s diplomatic history”, said Oscar Soria, an Argentine environmental activist and director of the Common Initiative.

Rafiyev declined to be drawn on the departure, terming it a “diplomatic matter between Argentina and the UN”.

“We hope that all who are attending here have only one intention, to come to join us in this collective effort to get an outcome that is positive,” he added.



– ‘Some uncertainty’ –



But progress on the key goal of the talks — a new climate finance deal — is proving grindingly slow.

The main fault line is clear: how much should developed countries pay to help poorer nations adapt to climate change and transition away from fossil fuels.

Rich nations are reluctant to spend much more than the $100-billion a year already committed, conscious of domestic publics angry about inflation and stuttering economies.

But developing countries warn they need at least $1 trillion to defend against the ravages of climate change and meet commitments to reach net-zero emissions.

Sources described ongoing discussions as difficult, with negotiators struggling to wrestle a draft text into a reasonable form before ministers arrive in a few days to start nailing down a deal.

“At this pace we won’t be able to deliver something meaningful by Saturday as initially requested by the presidency,” warned Fernanda de Carvalho, climate policy lead at WWF.

Hanging over proceedings is the question of what role the United States will play on climate action and funding after Trump returns to the White House in January.

He has pledged to again withdraw from the landmark Paris agreement, raising questions about how much US negotiators can really promise and deliver in Baku.

“I think it’s fair to say that there’s some uncertainty in the next administration,” conceded Jake Levine, the White House’s senior director for climate and energy.

But the need to “project American values” would be a powerful driver for continued climate funding and action despite Trump’s return, he added.

“We cannot cede the playing field to China, to our competitors… So I think that you will see a continued American presence.”

Stricter lockdown in big cities as Punjab declares smog emergency

Zulqernain Tahir 

November 16, 2024

DAWN

A street is shrouded in smog amid air pollution, during a morning in Multan on November 15. — Reuters

LAHORE: Hundreds of people offer Namaz-i-Istisqa (prayers for rain) for some respite from the smog afflicting the Punjab province, at Badshahi Mosque on Friday. A spokesperson for the provincial environment department attributed this year’s severe pollution to a lack of rain in September and October.—PPI


• Schools closed for another 10 days across the province
• Marriyum says arrangements made in hospitals to treat patients
• Govt holds ‘successful’ cloud seeding trial in Jhelum, Gujar Khan


LAHORE: The Punjab government has declared an emergency in Lahore and Multan, where a “complete lockdown” will be imposed from Fridays to Sundays due to the intensity of smog.

Dense smog, caused by toxic pollutants, has engulfed several cities in Punjab over the past few weeks, with Lahore and Multan being the worst hit. The AQI reading in Multan has already crossed 2,000 twice, setting a new record for air pollution.

“We are declaring a health emergency in Lahore and Multan,” provincial minister Marriyum Aurangzeb told a press conference on Friday.

The minister said a complete lockdown will be enforced on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays in both cities.

Construction activities in Lahore and Multan have also been suspended for 10 days, and vehicles carrying construction materials will be stopped at the entry points of the cities.

Ms Aurangzeb said the closure of schools has been extended while colleges and universities will hold online classes in Lahore and Multan.

Private and government offices would operate with 50 per cent of staff working from home, while restaurants would operate till 4pm with takeaway services allowed till 8pm.

“We are not imposing restrictions on weddings during this smog season but are preparing for next year,” she said, adding that citizens have been advised to avoid outdoor events.

Late, on Friday, the provincial Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notified these restrictions.

It said the smog situation is “likely to prevail for a few weeks”; hence, there was a need to “reduce the number of vehicles on roads and restrict construction activities”.

Schools across Punjab, which are already closed, would remain shut till Nov 24, according to the EPA notification.

There will be a complete ban on the entry of heavy transport vehicles in Lahore and Multan.

The vehicles carrying fuel, medicines and food supplies; buses with official certification; ambulances; fire brigades; and vehicles of Rescue 1122 and police will be exempt from the ban.

The lockdown restrictions will not apply to pharmacies, medical facilities, petrol pumps, oil depots, tandoors, flour mills, dairy shops, call centres, postal services and utility companies.

Health crisis

The minister admitted that smog has resulted in a sharp uptick in the number of patients with respiratory illnesses.

The timing of the outpatient department (OPD) has been extended till 8pm in hospitals where essential medicines for respiratory illnesses have also been supplied, the minister said.

Ambulances have been equipped with breathing apparatus and hospital staff leaves have been cancelled. Citizens are advised to wear masks and avoid unnecessary travel on motorcycles.

According to the EPA notification, special counters for smog-related diseases will be established in all government and private hospitals.

Rescue 1122 will “prioritise the calls related to smog diseases” while the health department will ensure an adequate supply of medicines to treat respiratory and other smog-related diseases

10-year policy

While calling smog a “health crisis”, she said the pollution is now affecting other districts in Punjab.

The minister claimed that a 10-year policy had been formulated and government departments have been given specific targets to combat this crisis.

“Twelve AQI calculators have been installed in Lahore, and 50 more will be deployed across Punjab this year,” she added.

The minister lamented Lahore has only 3pc green cover compared to the required 36pc. “The government plans to launch a citywide green plantation drive.”

She said smog would not disappear in six months or a year, and the government is using both short- and long-term strategies to address the issue.

The minister, once again, reiterated that smog was cross-border and urged Pakistan and India jointly “address this environmental crisis, which concerns lives and health”.

The minister said she would like to brief the Lahore High Court on the policy to curb smog, which, she said, was caused by “transport, agriculture, energy, our habits, our behaviour and our actions towards nature”.

She said a number of measures have already been taken to curb smog.

For the first time, the agriculture department has provided 1,000 super seeders to farmers to dispose of their stubble instead of burning it.

Around 800 brick kilns have been demolished, and efforts to expand Lahore’s forest cover are ongoing, she added.

Three vehicle fitness certification stations have been established at Kala Shah Kaku and Thokar Niaz Baig, and smoke detectors have been provided to traffic police to identify vehicles with high emissions.

Cloud seeding

On Friday, the Punjab government also held a successful trial of artificial rain using local technology.

“The cloud seeding experiment conducted in Jhelum, Chakwal, Talagang, and Gujar Khan resulted in rainfall in Jhelum and Gujar Khan on Friday,” the Meteorological Department confirmed.

The experiment was conducted at 2pm, and “within hours, it [rained] in Jhelum and Gujar Khan”.

“There is also a strong likelihood of rainfall in Lahore after this experiment. The artificial rainfall will significantly help reduce smog,” the Met Department said.

The experiment was done in collaboration with Army Aviation, Punjab EPA and Suparco, as per the officials.Ms Aurangzeb and CM Sharif have congratulated all institutions and scientific experts involved in the cloud seeding experiment.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Breathless Punjab

DAWN
Editorial 

Published November 16, 2024 

PUNJAB’s smog crisis has effectively spiralled out of control, with air quality readings shattering all past records: Multan’s AQI surpassed 2,000 recently and Lahore’s is consistently exceeding the 1,100 mark. While the two cities have now been put under a nine-day lockdown, such high levels of air pollution have taken a terrible toll on the population. Nearly 2m citizens sought medical attention for respiratory ailments in just 30 days. Hospitals are reporting patients of asthma, conjunctivitis and heart disease in overwhelming numbers. While the provincial government is running helter-skelter closing schools, banning recreational activities and demolishing non-compliant brick kilns, these steps amount to little more than crisis management. The distribution of super-seeders and installation of emission control systems, though welcome, cannot mask the absence of deep reform. It is not with seasonal firefighting that Punjab can deal with this recurrent problem. It must address primary pollution sources: a rickety transport infrastructure, industrial emissions and urban sprawl.

Across the border, Delhi faces a similar crisis, with schools shutting down and flights disrupted. In Pakistan, the Punjab information minister says that while 70pc of Lahore’s smog is generated locally, around 30pc wafts in from India. This makes bilateral cooperation essential. In addition, the Lahore High Court’s call for a decade-long policy framework merits attention. With 70-80pc of environmental pollution stemming from transport emissions, particularly substandard fuel, any meaningful solution must prioritise public transport and stricter emission standards. The government’s plan to introduce electric buses by June 2025 is promising but insufficient. The path forward requires painful but necessary reforms: relocating industries outside urban centres, enforcing Euro-V fuel standards, expanding green coverage beyond the current 3pc in Lahore, and creating air quality monitoring networks. While these may seem economically burdensome, the cost pales in comparison to the rapidly rising healthcare costs and the undeniable loss of productivity. For citizens caught between unaffordable air purifiers and deteriorating health, the government must provide relief through subsidised protective gear, such as N95 masks, and expanded healthcare access. However, the public too must recognise their role in this crisis. It must adopt greener lifestyles and reduce personal emissions. Ultimately, tackling smog requires unwavering political will, regional diplomacy, public participation, and a rethink of our urban development.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Pakistan’s policies hazy as it fights smog


By AFP
November 14, 2024


Pakistan's Punjab region is bearing the brunt of the country's struggles with record-breaking smog - Copyright AFP Arif ALI

Muhammed SOHAIL ABBAS with Shrouq TARIQ in Islamabad

From banning tuk-tuks and barbecues to demolishing old brick kilns, Pakistan’s government is pushing a series of measures to fight record-breaking smog.

But environmental activists and experts warn that the efforts hardly begin to fix a problem that leaves the country choking every winter, with Punjab, a region of almost 130 million people bordering India, bearing the brunt of it.

A mix of low-grade fuel emissions from factories and vehicles, exacerbated by agricultural stubble burning, blanket the city each winter, trapped by cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds.

The UN food agency FAO pinpoints transport as the main source of air pollutant emissions, followed by industry and agriculture.

Punjab minister Marriyum Aurangzeb, who has declared a “war against smog”, has deployed police to fine farmers who use the slash-and-burn technique.

Officials are also targeting companies that fail to comply with orders to modernise their infrastructure.

“It is a good starting point”, the Pakistan Air Quality Experts (PAQx) group, a coalition of 27 professionals spanning public health, environmental science, law, and economics, wrote in a letter to the government.

But more urgent action was necessary against the worst polluters, the group said, suggesting immediate curbs on heavy vehicles circulating at certain hours or a nation-wide shutdown of all brick kilns, old and new.

Ahmad Rafay Alam, one of Pakistan’s leading environment lawyers, said the government has “not understood the problem completely”.

“It should (improve the quality of) petrol, move to renewables, improve the industry, otherwise, we’re just showing something for the sake of showing it,” he said.



– Cost hurdle –



More than 24 million vehicles ply the streets in Punjab, a province served by a weak public transportation infrastructure.

“We need to upgrade the vehicle fleet,” Alam said.

But many Pakistanis are also unable to afford more modern and less-polluting options in a country where the World Bank reports 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

In the brick-making industry, one of Pakistan’s biggest sectors, employers and employees have shown incomprehension at the government’s actions.

Officials have shut down 700 of the country’s 25,000 brick kilns because they have not switched to more energy-efficient versions touted to reduce air particle output.

Employer Sajid Ali Shah told AFP that the government “replaced the old technology that we worked with for over 50 years with a new one, but many do not even know how to use the new technology”.

Worker Muhammad Imran, 40, said the old kilns “used to cost us almost $1000, the new one is almost $6000”.

A similar picture emerged in the farming sector.

Officials want the agriculture sector to switch to fertilisers instead of the slash-and-burn technique, but farmers say that is too costly.

“We plough, burn and then water (the fields) for good results. There’s no other way,” Fida Hussain, a 35-year-old farmer told AFP, after he finished burning his rice fields.

Deforestation also continues to gather pace to make way for new bridges and roads.

Every year, Pakistan loses almost 27,000 hectares (270 square kilometres) of natural forest area, according to the World Bank.



– Children paying price –



With the smog far from lifting, doctors are reporting a health emergency.

Air pollution can trigger strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and other respiratory diseases, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

More than 35,000 patients have been reported in the five major public hospitals of Lahore during the past week, Pakistan’s official news agency APP reported.

Children are often hardest hit, with UNICEF noting that “prior to these record-breaking levels of air pollution, about 12 percent of deaths in children under five in Pakistan were due to air pollution”.

To limit the damage, the provincial government shut down schools and public spaces in Punjab’s major cities till 17 November, disrupting the learning of almost 16 million children.

“It’s unfortunate that the children are paying the price when it should be industry, energy production and automobile use that should be upgraded or shut down,” Alam said.

But Aurangzeb warned: “Even if we enforce our smog mitigation plan… it will not bring an overnight change”.

Primary schools empty as smog persists in Indian capital


By AFP
November 15, 2024


Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area, home to more than 30 million people, consistently tops world rankings for air pollution in winter - Copyright AFP Arun SANKAR

Residents in India’s capital New Delhi again woke under a blanket of choking smog on Friday, a day after authorities closed primary schools and imposed measures aimed at alleviating the annual crisis.

Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area, home to more than 30 million people, consistently tops world rankings for air pollution in winter.

The smog is blamed for thousands of premature deaths each year and is an annual source of misery for residents, with various piecemeal government initiatives failing to measurably address the problem.

All primary schools were shut by government order on Thursday night with young pupils — particularly vulnerable to smog-related ailments due to their age — instead moving to online lessons.

“I have an eight-year-old kid and he has been suffering from a cough the past couple of days,” Delhi resident Satraj, who did not give his surname, told AFP on the streets of the capital.

“The government did the right thing by shutting down schools.”

Thursday’s edict also banned construction work, ordered drivers of older diesel-powered vehicles to stay off the streets and directed water trucks to spray roads in a bid to clear dust particles from the air.

Delhi’s air quality nonetheless deteriorated to “hazardous” levels for the fourth consecutive day this week, according to monitoring firm IQAir.

Levels of PM2.5 pollutants — dangerous cancer-causing microparticles that enter the bloodstream through the lungs — were recorded more than 26 times above the World Health Organization’s recommended daily maximum shortly after dawn on Friday.

– Thousands of fires –

Critics have consistently said that authorities have fallen short in their duty to tackle a crisis that blights the city each year.

“We haven’t responded to the emergency with the same intensity with which we are facing this crisis,” Sunil Dahiya of New Delhi-based advocacy group Envirocatalysts told AFP.

The acrid smog over New Delhi each year is primarily blamed on stubble burning by farmers in nearby states to clear their fields for ploughing.

A report by broadcaster NDTV on Friday said that more than 7,000 individual farm fires had been recorded in Punjab state, to the capital’s north.

Emissions from industry and numerous coal-fired power stations ringing the city, along with vehicle exhaust and the burning of household waste, also play a part.

“Since we haven’t yet carried out any systemic long-term changes, like the way we commute, generate power, or manage our waste, even the curtailed emissions will be high,” Dahiya said.

Cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds worsen the situation by trapping deadly pollutants each winter.

A study in The Lancet medical journal attributed 1.67 million premature deaths to air pollution in the world’s most populous country in 2019.

Lahore’s dangerous smog: where disease and death stalk

With air quality hitting “hazardous” highs, Lahore is forced into survival mode — schools shut, hospitals overflow, and households resort to pricey air purifiers to keep the smog at bay.

Zofeen T. Ebrahim

Published November 14, 2024

 
“It’s been horrible; I’ve been sick on and off for the last 10 days,” said 29-year-old Natasha Sohail, who teaches A-Level students at three private schools in Lahore. She is asthmatic, and last week, her condition worsened with a vertigo attack and fever. “It’s criminal what is happening here,” said an incensed Sohail, referring to the “band-aid measures” taken by the Punjab government.

Lahore also has the distinction of being the world leader in the poor air quality index (AQI), with some neighbourhoods touching over 1,200 on the AQI this month. The AQI measures the level of fine particles (PM2.5), larger particles (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) in the air. An AQI of 151 to 200 is classified as “unhealthy”, 201 to 300 “very unhealthy” and more than 300 as “hazardous”.

For the past eight years, since Sohail was in college and since smog became an annual phenomenon, Sohail has relied on anti-wheezing drugs and inhalers. At home, there are four air purifiers to help her breathe cleaner air.

She’s not alone.

These two photos were taken at the same place; the clear blue sky was taken in September 2023 and the sepia skies in November 2024. Courtesy: Zaeema Naeem


“The hospitals are crowded with tens of thousands of patients suffering from respiratory and heart diseases being treated at hospitals and clinics over the last few weeks,” said Dr Ashraf Nizami, president of the Pakistan Medical Association’s Lahore chapter. “The psychological toll the poor air is taking on people remains under the radar.”

Punjab’s senior minister, Marriyum Aurangzeb, revealing the government’s anti-smog action plan, informed journalists that Lahore endured 275 days of unhealthy AQI levels over the past year, with temperatures rising by 2.3 degrees.

After Lahore’s AQI exceeded 1,000 last week, authorities closed all primary and secondary schools. Punjab’s Secretary for Environment, Raja Jahangir Anwar, warned the closure could continue if air quality doesn’t improve. “Young children are vulnerable, and we want to avoid an emergency,” he said, adding that online learning, like during the COVID pandemic, can be adopted again.

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow

Source: Analysis by CREA. Data source for Lahore AQI is Airnow


Living in a world of air purifiers

Aliya Khan, 37, a mother of two boys — aged five and one, with the older one suffering from asthma — had installed four imported air purifiers in her home four years ago, each costing Rs31,000. They bought a fifth this year at Rs60,000. “It cost us a fortune, but that’s not all; the filters must be replaced every year, which costs Rs10,000 per machine,” she said.

The private school her five-year-old attends lacks air purifiers in classrooms, leaving parents with no choice but to pool together and buy one for their child’s classroom.

Khan, a development consultant, says air purifiers work best if the home is packed tightly to keep the air from outside entering. “Our windows and doors are poorly insulated and with elderly parents, domestic help and two kids — the air purifiers struggle to maintain their effectiveness.”
Smog brings business for some

Business picks up for 37-year-old Hassan Zaidi as soon as Lahore is covered in smog. He’s currently fulfilling an order for “hundreds of air purifiers” for a foreign school in Lahore.

A computer engineer with a passion for product design, Zaidi started building air purifiers in 2019 for his family after his baby daughter developed a cough. He purchased an imported air purifier, took it apart, and quickly realised that with the right materials, it was no “rocket science” to build one himself.

He claimed his “work better, look better, and cost just Rs25,000.” These air purifiers restart automatically after power outages, are nearly silent, and are easy to repair. The filter costs Rs2,400 and needs replacing each season. Each unit is good for a 500 square feet room if fully sealed.
Authorities take action

Stubble burning in India and Pakistan. The blue line is the border between the two countries. Pakistan (left) and India (on the right).

Anwar said the government has introduced several measures to reduce emissions and improve air quality, adopting a whole-of-government approach with all departments working together for the first time.

Authorities have already banned barbecuing food without filters and use of motorised rickshaws.

The government distributed 1,000 subsidised super-seeders to farmers as an alternative to burning rice stubble and took legal action against over 400 farmers who violated the burning ban. “This carrot and stick approach will be very effective,” endorsed Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri, the executive director of the Islamabad-based think tank, Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

Anwar said super seeders will convert residue into mulch, improving production and speeding sowing. Penalising a few farmers will deter others from breaking the law.

“But the government’s own figures show agriculture contributes less than 4 per cent to smog,” pointed out Hassan Khan, a farmer in Punjab, and added, “Why waste so much time and expense on it; why not focus on the bigger polluters like the transport industry?”

Another measure the government took involved demolishing over 600 of the 11,000 smoke-emitting brick kilns that hadn’t switched to zigzag technology, including 200 in and around Lahore.

Terming brick kilns the “low hanging fruit,” Dr Parvez Hassan, senior advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan and president of the Pakistan Environmental Law Association, who, in 2003 and again in 2018, was appointed the chairperson of the Lahore Clean Air Commission and the Smog Commission by the Lahore High Court to come up with the smog policy, did not approve the “arbitrary decision of dismantling” the kilns. In his view, supporting the kiln owners with “available concessional financing for conversion to zizag technology” would be a more effective way.

He added that it was well known that the transport (oil), cement and textile sectors were the bigger polluters, but they were very influential. “Power in Pakistan has always meant being above the law,” he said, adding that the “general lack of political will and effective capability to monitor compliance” also acted as roadblocks.

“No country in the world has succeeded in good environmental policies unless it has first built a capacity to implement! The journey must begin with capacity building!”

However, Anwar said, action has been taken with visits to 15,000 industrial units, sealing 64 mills, and demolishing 152 factories.

With 43pc of air pollution in the province caused by unfit vehicles, Anwar also held the transporters responsible for the smog. He shared that Lahore has 1.3 million cars and 4.5 million two-wheelers, with 1,800 motorcycles added daily. He also mentioned that the traffic police had been ordered to impound vehicles without fitness certificates. Last month, a fine of Rs16.09 million was imposed on over 24,000 substandard vehicles across the province.

“Getting a vehicle fitness certificate in Pakistan is as easy as a blind person getting a license to drive!” said a petroleum expert who requested anonymity. “We need to clean the fuel, scrap old vehicles, and make vehicle emissions testing mandatory,” he added.

Imran Khalid, a climate governance expert, emphasised that improving fuel quality alone wasn’t enough; vehicles and engines also need upgrades to fully benefit from better fuel. He noted that while Euro 5 fuel is available in Pakistan, it’s not widely accessible, and Euro 6 is the standard in India. “I haven’t seen any survey on how many cars in Pakistan have Euro 5 compliant engines,” he added.

“I think it would be far more effective to invest in mass transit, but there is no talk of this issue; we keep making more motorways, widening roads, and bringing in more vehicles on roads in the cities instead of investing in railways and commuter rails,” said farmer Khan.

The petroleum expert urged the government to approve the refinery upgrade policy, which has been delayed for two years, adding that upgrades will take up to five years.

Despite various actions, people in Lahore remain unconvinced, calling them too little, too late.

“The measures announced by the government should have been operationalised at least six months before the smog season and the 24/7 enforcement of these priorities should be rigorously monitored by a dedicated team with support of the public through awareness campaigns,” pointed out advocate Hassan.

Nizami called for year-round efforts against air pollution, questioning why no one is held accountable for cutting millions of trees for unplanned housing while the focus remains on controlling stubble burning.

The Pakistan Air Quality Experts (PAQx) group, a coalition of 27 professionals from public health, environmental science, law, and economics, has written to the prime minister, suggesting the establishment of a “comprehensive, nationwide real-time air quality monitoring network” for informed decision-making and responsive policymaking.

Anwar defended the smog plan, stating it’d been in progress since April and required public cooperation, including staying indoors and wearing masks. Punjab’s senior minister, Marriyum Aurangzeb, warned that failure to wear masks could lead to a complete city lockdown.

“I don’t see the plan working as the air quality is getting from bad to worse,” said Sohail.

Nizami criticised the government for making a lot of noise but taking little action. “It’s shameful how they’ve shifted health responsibilities to the private sector,” he said.

Sohail suggested cloud seeding for artificial rain, noting its positive impact last year. Nizami also supported using artificial rain to clear the haze.

Anwar explained that cloud seeding required the right clouds and humidity. “But we are quite ready and as soon as the timing is right, we will do it,” he promised.
Climate diplomacy

While 70pc of smog in Lahore is locally generated, nearly 30pc comes from India. Manoj Kumar, a scientist with the Finnish Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, noted that the Indo-Gangetic Plain formed an “interconnected airshed,” affecting air quality, but local sources played a major role in Lahore’s pollution levels.

The chief minister is keen to start talks with her Indian counterpart. “Maryam Nawaz will soon send a letter to the Chief Minister of Indian Punjab, expressing her willingness to visit India and invite him to Pakistan,” said Anwar.

Kumar praised the Punjab chief minister’s initiative, emphasising that long-term, coordinated efforts between both countries could lead to improved air quality through a unified approach. But the efforts should not stop at the Punjab regions alone, as the airshed is shared and goes beyond India.

Anwar said Pakistan is considering hosting a “regional climate conference in Lahore soon.”

Header image: Smog near the Ghanta Ghar (Clock Tower) in Faisalabad, a city about 120km from Lahore and the third most populous city after Karachi and Lahore. Credits: Khalid Mahmood/Wiki & handout.

This article was originally published in Inter Press Service and has been reproduced here with permission.

Zofeen T. Ebrahim is an independent journalist based in Karachi.
She tweets at @zofeen28.

PAKISTAN

Out Of Pocket health expenditures

Zafar Mirza

Published November 15, 2024 

IF health is a human right, then the inability to pay for essential healthcare should not be a barrier. This is why financial protection for healthcare is an integral component of universal health coverage (UHC).

In poor countries with weak economies, inadequate healthcare systems, and lack of fiscal prioritisation of healthcare, the vast majority of people are not covered in terms of healthcare service coverage and financial protection. How, then, do people access healthcare? They spend out of their incomes, savings and loans; hence the term, ‘out-of-pocket health expenditures’ (OOPHE).

When already poor or almost poor people have to resort to OOPHE, it badly affects their household incomes and they have to make tough choices between other essentials — maybe food or children’s education.

When a household ends up spending more than 10 per cent and 25pc (both thresholds are used) of its total consumption or income, the World Health Organisation (WHO) defines it as ‘catastrophic OOPHE’, which hurts the poor most, especially the women, children and elderly among them. Catastrophic health expenditures push people into poverty and deepen the poverty of the already poor.

In March 2024, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics published the National Health Accounts 2021-22. The report presents the findings of the ninth round of National Health Accounts in Pakistan. NHA was initiated in Pakistan with the support of the WHO in 2005-06 and before the recent report, eight rounds had been completed for eight fiscal years.

NHA is a standard methodology for tracking national health expenditures, their sources and the way they are used, in order to develop policies to enhance the performance of national health systems. The standard methodology was jointly developed by WHO and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Together, they published A System of Health Accounts in 2011 and they maintain a database of global health expenditures and continue to produce global reports and provide trainings to their national counterparts to undertake NHAs.

Financial protection is an integral component of universal health coverage.

As part of the latest Pakistan NHA report for 2021-22, a special OOPHE survey was also undertaken. The survey covered 24,809 households spread over almost the whole of urban and rural Pakistan.

According to the survey, per capita annual OOP health expenditure in FY2021-22 was Rs4,334. People spent a total of over Rs983 billion out of their pocket on healthcare. The provincial breakdown shows that out of the total OOPHE, Punjab’s share was the highest (53pc), followed by Sindh (23pc), KP (17pc) and Balochistan (6pc).

A closer look at OOPHE survey data reveals that in Pakistan, around 73pc of the total OOP health expenditures are incurred on outpatient services (primary healthcare), while only around 20pc of total OOP spending is incurred on inpatient care. The percentage share of outpatients is highest in Punjab (77.46pc) followed by KP (72.01pc), and Balochistan (69.06pc), while the lowest share is that of Sindh (60.01pc). Also, 58.89pc of OOPHE takes place in urban centres and the rest in rural areas, which basically means that a sizeable proportion of people from the rural areas also travel to the urban areas and spend money to buy healthcare.

The people of Pakistan spend 82.79pc of OOPHE on buying healthcare from the private health sector, and the rest, 17.21pc, is spent in the public sector.

The breakdown of these expenditures shows that at the national level, more than half of OOP, that is, 50.63pc, is spent on buying medicines, followed by doctors’ fee (12.93pc), and lab tests (8.22pc), while 7.7pc of it is incurred on transportation costs.

The top diseases to which OOPHE caters include heart disease (9.73pc), flu/fever (9.55pc), muscular pain — knee, backbone, etc — (7.21pc), and diabetes (7.09pc).

What does all this data on OOPHE tell us and how should it feed into future health polices?

Three major points can be discerned. One, OOPHE is quite high in Pakistan and this is especially concerning with reference to the poor population, which numbers more than 110 million. This segment of the population needs financial protection for healthcare.

Second, since 73pc of OOPHE is being incurred by ambulatory patients seeking primary healthcare, it is critical that the poor segment of the population is provided financial protection for primary healthcare. Though financial protection is available for hospitalisation through the Sehat Sahulat Programme, there is a major need for financial protection at the PHC level.

Third, more than 80pc of OOPHE is made in the private sector. Combining it with the above two facts, it is clear that the people’s maximum out-of-pocket expenditures on health and their need for protection from financial hardship, especially for the poor and most vulnerable, is on PHC and in the private sector.

Currently, PHC in the private sector is the most uncovered area in terms of financial protection and hence there is slow advancement of UHC.

It is also the least regulated area in terms of quality of care and cost of care. Medicines, doctors’ fee and diagnostics are the main areas where people are spending money out of their pocket when they seek healthcare. For the poor, these items are unaffordable.

Who provides PHC in the private health sector: individual clinics of general practitioners or family physicians and outpatient departments of a variety of private sector hospitals.

If financial protection is not extended by expanding the Sehat Sahulat programme in these areas, then a vast majority of the poor and almost poor population will remain vulnerable to catastrophic and impoverishing OOPHE.

Policymakers also have to consider that the burden of disease in Pakistan has shifted to non-communicable diseases, which are chronic in nature and hence require lifelong healthcare. As this survey also shows, the top categories of diseases and conditions where OOPHEs are being incurred are non-communicable, and these are ongoing expenditures. This further necessitates financial protection.

The writer is a former health minister and currently a professor of health systems & population health at Shifa Tameer-i-Millat University.

zedefar@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, November 15th, 2024