U.S. Copper Import Tariffs May Arrive Sooner Than Expected

By ZeroHedge - Mar 27, 2025,

The US administration is considering implementing copper import tariffs sooner than initially expected, potentially by mid-May, which is significantly ahead of the original September-November timeline.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the expedited tariffs will lead to a temporary surge in US copper imports in April, followed by a decline in US stocks and a normalization by the third quarter of 2025.

The anticipation of these tariffs has caused a significant widening of the price gap between COMEX and LME copper contracts, with COMEX prices rising to record highs.


President Trump's national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, launched in February to review raw copper, refined copper, copper concentrates, copper alloys, scrap copper, and other copper derivatives imported into the U.S, directed the Commerce Department to deliver tariff recommendations to the White House within 270 days. That review process has likely been accelerated, as a new report suggests U.S. copper imports could be enacted in the near-term.

Sources told Bloomberg that the Trump administration is moving quickly with its review of copper import tariffs and will likely act well before the 270-day deadline, which was expected between September and November. The new timeline has now shifted to mid-May.

Commenting on the shortened timeline, Goldman's Eoin Dinsmore, Aurelia Waltham, and others provided clients with a critical Q&A addressing physical market flows and pricing across various exchanges:

What is the impact on physical market flows?

Greater certainty on copper tariffs means COMEX is likely to trade at a higher premium to LME, but there is less time to ship metal to the U.S. Assuming tariffs are implemented in May, we think shipments to the U.S. will likely be fast tracked, with net imports in April potentially jumping 200kt[1] above the standard 60-70kt/month, albeit with upside risk. However, with the possibility of earlier tariff implementation, we now expect U.S. stocks to decline by 30-40kt/month from mid-to-late Q2 onwards. Thus, we avoid a stock glut in the U.S. in Q3 2025, when we expect global copper market tightness to be most pronounced.


What is the impact on the LME price?

We see stranded stocks at the low-end of our range - a 200kt increase in U.S. stocks, and a possible 60kt loss of refined production from lower U.S. exports of copper concentrates and scrap. But by Q3, when we forecast the bulk of the 2025 annual global deficit will occur, U.S. stocks should have started to normalize. Thus, the expected H2 crunch should be less pronounced, which reduces upside risk to our LME price forecast. We hold to our 3/6/12 Month LME price forecasts of $9,600/t, $10,000/t and $10,700/t, and flag near-term downside risk from the trade policy update on April 2nd.

Will COMEX now price the full 25% tariff over the LME?

Factoring in uncertainty on the tariff level and high U.S. inventories, we think an implied tariff of 20% should be the cap in the near-term. This has also been a level regularly cited as a good exit point in numerous client meetings.

Will Sep-Dec 2025 spreads tighten?

We close the trade recommendation to go long Sep-Dec 2025 timespreads. Despite Q3 2025 being the key point for global copper market tightness, the spread will no longer need to rise to a level to halt exports to the U.S. Based on our Q3 ex-US reported inventories forecast, the likely backwardation would be only $0-60/t, close to current levels.

The analysts see global copper markets shifting into a deficit in 2Q25.



U.S. copper inventories should begin declining after tariffs are enacted.




Analysts expect the COMEX and LME spread to be capped soon.



The Bloomberg report sent copper prices on Comex up 3% to a record $5.37 per pound. Meanwhile, the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange fell 2% to $9,893 per ton, widening the gap between the two contracts to about $1,700 per ton



"The news today is this story of Copper tariffs coming sooner than possibly expected... LME/CMX arb at $1750-1800 in July (+$300 to start today) or 18% Tarrff expected," Goldman analyst James McGeoch told clients earlier.


McGeoch offered some thoughts about today's news and copper trading:The durability of this move is significantly greater than 2024. Balances are tight, there is a fundamental driver and a technical ampifier (that technical is also fundamental in that the U.S. is short metal, fundamentally they want to change that).
As price traded back to $10k last night, the CMX premium now well above 15%, as it trades through record highs to 529 (+1.5%), traders (with vested interests) talk about price to $12k
Remember that whilst metal is being stacked in the U.S., we had last week the China SRB suggest it was also looking to build stocks of critical minerals: cobalt, copper, nickel, and lithium link. So Apparent demand (at either end, U.S. and China) is amplifying the effect of real demand (electrification, Chinese fiscal put, German infra plan), and tightening the balances further
Trading observation in discussion Monday - Positioning has not baked the above in. Regional contract differentiation leaves those with the global view on sideline (also too much idiosyncratic risk they lack edge to play). Point is the big rally lacks a big uptick in spec interest/positioning. The copper fwds have a lot to go, the incentives not in the curve and physical premiums doubled last week (first sign they are being impacted). The work now is dissecting physical location premiums and how the moves in inventory can impact near term demand. As we rally to $10k we may see some producing selling and as such spreads can remain bid.
CTA's are as long as I can recall, the GS model suggests close to $18bn (historical max 19.6bn). This is where all the length is. CFTC weekly data showed a fairly meh inc for managed money accts (CME +9 to 22k lots, LME +2 to 63k)

And we ask: What happens to global copper production with prices at record highs?



Now that tariffs are likely to be imposed sooner, importers will have significantly less time to rush copper shipments into the U.S.

By Zerohedge.com

Column: Green iron is a prize worth billions, winning is the trick

Reuters | March 27, 2025 |

Piles of iron ore at Cape Lambert (Credit: Rio Tinto)

Decarbonizing the steel industry is one of the massive challenges in meeting climate goals, but could end up being extremely profitable for companies and governments prepared to take the risks.

The steel value chain accounts for 7% to 9% of global carbon emissions, the largest single industrial contributor and thus a prime target for the net-zero by 2050 goals of many countries and companies.

The problem is that about 80% of steel emissions come from a single step in the process, namely turning iron ore into pig, or crude, iron by removing oxygen and other impurities, a process that now involves using vast quantities of coal.

The good news is there are available technologies to take coal largely out of the mix, and while the eventual finished steel will not be emissions-free, it is possible to get the carbon intensity down to around 300 kg (661 lb) per ton of steel, about one-seventh of the current 2.2 tons of emissions.

The bad news is that adopting these technologies at the necessary scale requires not only huge capital investments, but massive amounts of cheap green energy and coordinated government regulations and incentives across all countries, from resource producers like Australia to steel makers like China and Japan.

Australia is the world’s largest producer of iron ore, exporting almost 1 billion metric tons a year, of which more than 80% goes to China, the world’s biggest importer and maker of half of global steel.

Iron ore is Australia’s biggest resource export, and metallurgical coal used to make steel is in the top five, meaning the country is extremely exposed to any sustained shift in global steel production to lower emissions.

At the Green Iron and Steel Forum held this week in Perth, the scale of the challenge and value of the potential shift to low-emission steel was front and centre.

Australia’s iron ore exports are worth about $85 billion a year and metallurgical coal a further $34 billion, but the potential increase in value by switching to producing green iron for export was put as high as $252 billion a year.

That assumes converting most of the current iron ore volumes to green iron through a process of using hydrogen made from renewable energies such as solar and wind.

A more realistic view of converting 40% of iron ore output to green iron by 2050 still yields an impressive value of around $110 billion per year, to which would be added the value of the other 60% of iron ore still being shipped.

But building the energy and processing infrastructure to achieve this will require massive amounts of capital, running into hundreds of billions of dollars.

It is likely that the cost of solar panels, wind turbines and battery storage will continue to decline, especially if the massive volumes being demanded result in increasing economies of scale in China.

But even so, before such huge amounts of capital are deployed, investors will need a fairly high degree of certainty.

Commitments needed

Steel mills in existing heavyweights like China, Japan and South Korea will need to commit to actually buying green iron.

This means they will have to commit capital to switching steel production from the coal-intensive basic oxygen furnace-blast furnace method to using electric arc furnaces, which can process green iron into steel without using coal for smelting.

Steel makers will also have to agree to invest in Australian green iron plants and share the up-front capital costs.

Miners are good at digging and shipping iron ore, so they will have to learn how to process the raw ore into pig iron using green hydrogen, which effectively means finding partners with expertise in building firmed renewable power plants and hydrogen production plants.

The problem is aligning all the various parties together in order to kick start what is effectively a new industry, albeit one using an existing raw material.

There is also probably a major role to be played by governments in Australia and across Asia.

Low-emissions steel is going to be more expensive to produce than the current high-emissions product.

Experience suggests consumers are unlikely to voluntarily pay more for a low-emissions product, meaning that the steel sector has to either be punished by carbon taxes or incentivized by subsidies in order to switch.

Some Asian countries are introducing carbon taxes and some have incentives for green projects, but there is no sign of a coordinated regional framework that would provide investor certainty and drive investment.

At the Perth conference it became apparent that the technology and the willingness to embark on the green iron journey exist in Australia.

It is likely that shifting from the dig-and-ship model of iron ore in Australia to adding in the additional step of beneficiating to green iron will be like a proverbial snowball.

Right now the green iron dream is like a small snowball at the top of a mountain. To start rolling downhill and gaining size and speed it needs some initial momentum.

Even once it starts rolling it will take some time to build speed and size, but if it can avoid hitting too many obstacles it can turn into an avalanche by the time it gets to the bottom of the mountain.

(The views expressed here are those of the author, Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

 

INSIGHT: Myanmar rebels disrupt China rare earth trade, sparking regional scramble

Reuters | March 27, 2025 \

Kachin Independence Army cadets in Laiza. Image by Paul Vrieze (VOA), October 2016, under public domain license, Wikipedia.

When armed rebels seized northern Myanmar’s rare-earths mining belt in October, they dealt a blow to the country’s embattled military junta – and wrested control of a key global resource.

By capturing sites that produce roughly half of the world’s heavy rare earths, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) rebels have been able to throttle the supply of minerals used in wind turbines and electric vehicles, sending prices of one key element skyward.

The KIA is seeking leverage against neighbouring China, which supports the junta and has invested heavily in rare earths mining in Myanmar’s Kachin state, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Chinese imports of rare earth oxides and compounds from Myanmar dropped to 311 metric tons in February, down 89% compared to the year-ago period, according to Chinese customs data that hasn’t been previously reported. Most of the fall came after October.

Reuters spoke to nine people with knowledge of Myanmar’s rare earths industry and its four-year civil war about turmoil in the mining belt.

One of them described the move by the KIA, which is part of a patchwork of armed groups fighting military rule, as an attempt to drive a wedge between the junta and China.

“They want to use rare earth reserves as a leverage in their negotiation with China,” said Dan Seng Lawn, executive director of the non-profit Kachinland Research Centre, which studies Kachin socio-political issues.

Three of the people also detailed previously unreported interest in the sector by India, China’s regional rival, which they said in late 2024 sent officials from a state-owned rare earths mining and refining firm to Kachin.

The KIA is one of the largest and oldest ethnic militias in Myanmar. It fights for the autonomy of the Kachin minority, a mostly Christian group who have long held grievances against the Bamar Buddhist majority.

The group has imposed a hefty tax on the mostly Chinese-operated rare-earth miners working around Panwa and Chipwe towns in Kachin, according Dan Seng Lawn, whose institute is based in the state, and a Chinese mining analyst.

China has been one of the staunchest international backers of Myanmar’s military since it deposed a civilian-led government in 2021 and ignited a bloody civil war. Beijing continues to see the junta as a guarantor of stability along its frontier, though the military has been ejected from most of the borderlands since a major rebel offensive in 2023.

A spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry said the department was not aware of the specifics of the situation in the mining belt but it continues to “actively promote peace talks and provide all possible support and assistance for the peace process in northern Myanmar.”

India’s external affairs ministry, the KIA and a junta spokesperson did not return requests for comment. Bawn Myang Co Ltd, which the US government previously identified as an operator of mines in the area, couldn’t be reached.

Price spike

Chinese spot prices of terbium oxide, whose supply is concentrated in Kachin, jumped 21.9% to 6,550 yuan per kg between late September and March 24, data from Shanghai Metals Market show.

Prices of dysprosium oxide, which is also largely mined in Kachin but was in lower demand over the last six months, eased 3.2% to 1,665 yuan per kg during the same period.

Most rare earths from Kachin are processed in China, so a protracted stalemate would have global implications.

“A prolonged shutdown would likely lead to higher, potentially more volatile rare earth prices in China, and a reshaping of market dynamics in the near term,” research firm Adamas Intelligence said in a February note.

Export plunge

Chinese miners started building up major operations in Kachin in the 2010s, after Beijing tightened regulations on domestic mines.

Kachin’s often unregulated mines steadily expanded after the 2021 coup with the tacit approval of the junta, according to the UK-based Global Witness non-profit.

But the growth came at a heavy cost, ravaging the environment and leaving Kachin’s hills pock-marked with leeching pools, according to witness accounts and satellite imagery.

Since the KIA’s takeover, a 20% tax imposed by the rebels has made it effectively impossible for local operators to run profitable mines.

The KIA wants China to stop pushing it to set down arms against the junta and to recognize the rebels’ de facto control of the border, said Dan Seng Lawn, adding that the parties had met at least twice in recent months.

The KIA has full control of the border in areas where it operates and anti-junta groups rule most of the rest of Myanmar’s frontier with China.

Beijing appeared reluctant to accept the KIA’s demands, though it risked its monopoly on Myanmar’s rare earth reserves if it doesn’t position itself pragmatically, Dan Seng Lawn said.

Reopening the minerals sector would be a major financial lifeline to the rebels: Myanmar’s heavy rare earths trade stood at around $1.4 billion in 2023, according to Global Witness.

The KIA has told miners in Kachin it will now allow shipments of existing rare earth inventories to China, Reuters reported Thursday.

But to resume operations at full capacity, the KIA needs an agreement with China, home to thousands of workers with the know-how, said Singapore-based rare-earths expert Thomas Kruemmer.

“Without them, this won’t work, full stop,” he said.

India alternative?

Amid the ongoing tussle, India has attempted to deepen its influence in Kachin, with which it also shares a border, according to Dan Seng Lawn and two people familiar with Indian official thinking.

India’s state-run mining and refining firm IREL in December sent a team to Kachin to study resources there, according to one of the Indian sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Indian authorities have reservations about operating in an area with armed non-state actors, but the Kachin desire to diversify away from China and New Delhi’s need for resources have pushed the two parties to talk, the Indian source said.

IREL did not return requests for comment.

An Indian delegation that included IREL also held an online meeting with the Kachins in December to discuss their interest in reopening the rare-earths sector, said Dan Seng Lawn, who attended the discussion.

They were willing to pay higher prices than China, he said.

Any India deal faces multiple obstacles, said Kruemmer and Dan Seng Lawn.

There is only skeletal infrastructure along the mountainous and sparsely populated Kachin-India frontier, making it challenging for commodities to be moved from Myanmar to the neighbouring northeastern states of India. Those states are also far removed from India’s manufacturing belts in the south and west.

India also doesn’t have the ability to commercially process the heavy rare earths and transform them into magnets used by industry, according to Kruemmer and the Indian source.

Some 90% of the world’s rare earths magnets are produced in China, which has brought the sector under tighter state control, followed by Japan.

Nevertheless, if Beijing does not recognize the “changing power dynamics,” Dan Seng Lawn said, the KIA “will have to open alternative options.”

(By Devjyot Ghoshal, Poppy McPherson, Amy Lv, Neha Arora and Shoon Naing; Editing by Katerina Ang)

 

Myanmar: Arakan Army To Begin Conscription In West

Members of the Arakan Army. Photo Credit: Arakan Army

 March 28, 2025  

By RFA

One of Myanmar’s most powerful rebel armies will begin conscription for all residents over 18 years old, sources told Radio Free Asia on Thursday. 

The Arakan Army, or AA, which controls the vast majority of western Myanmar’s Rakhine State, is organizing administrative processes in the state that would make conscription a legal obligation, a source close to the AA told RFA, adding that details would be released soon. 

A resident from the state’s Mrauk-U township also confirmed that the AA was holding meetings in villages to discuss details about the conscription.

“Men between the ages of 18 and 45 will undergo two months of military training and be required to serve for two years,” the resident said, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

He added that women between the ages of 18 and 35 will also be required to serve.

No information has been released about what draftees will be required to do or whether they will serve in combat, raising concerns among civilians in the embattled region, which has witnessed brutal retaliation efforts from Myanmar’s junta.

The AA currently controls 14 of Rakhine state’s 17 townships.

RFA contacted AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha for more information, but he did not respond by the time of publication.

With a well-organized military structure and strong local support, the AA has established de facto governance in much of the region, collecting taxes and administering justice independently from the central government. 

The junta views the AA as a persistent threat, as its growing influence undermines military control and fuels aspirations for greater autonomy among other ethnic groups.

Facing serious setbacks from insurgent groups across the country, reduced foreign investment, and defections from its own troops, the junta enacted controversial conscription laws in February last year, mandating compulsory military service for men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27.

​International human rights organizations have strongly criticized junta’s conscription law, arguing that it exacerbates the country’s existing humanitarian crisis and violates fundamental human rights. 

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Myanmar, Tom Andrews, described the junta’s imposition of mandatory military service as a sign of its desperation and a further threat to civilians. 

The enforcement of this law has led to a significant exodus of young people seeking to evade conscription. Reports indicate that thousands have fled across borders, particularly into Thailand, to avoid mandatory military service.

Radio Free Asia’s mission is to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press. Content used with the permission of Radio Free Asia, 2025 M St. NW, Suite 300, Washington DC 20036.

 OUTLAW DEEP-SEA MINIJG

Deep-sea mining scars remain after 40 years, but life returning

Cecilia Jamasmie | March 27, 2025 |

TMC has carried out exploratory mining expeditions to the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ). (Image: TMC.)

A new study led by the UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has revealed that the effects of a deep-sea mining experiment in the Pacific Ocean more than four decades ago are still apparent, though early signs of biological recovery have emerged.

A 2023 expedition to the mineral-rich Clarion Clipperton Zone (CCZ) by a team of scientists led by Britain’s National Oceanography Centre found that the seafloor, a complex ecosystem hosting hundreds of species, still bears scars of a 1979 test mining operation.

The collection of small polymetallic nodules, potato-shaped rocks rich in minerals and metals, from an eight-metre strip of the seabed caused long-term sediment changes and reduced the populations of many of the larger organisms living there, the study, published in Nature, shows.

The team of researchers also found encouraging signs of recovery, with smaller and more mobile creatures returning to the area.

Lead author and expedition leader, Professor Daniel Jones of the National Oceanography Centre said that to tackle the question of recovery from deep-sea mining, it is necessary to first look at available evidence and use old mining tests to help understand long-term impacts. 

“Forty-four years later, the mining tracks themselves look very similar to when they were first made, with a strip of seabed cleared of nodules and two large furrows in the seafloor where the machine passed,” Jones said.

Among the first creatures to recolonize the disturbed areas were large, amoeba-like xenophyophores, commonly found throughout the CCZ — a vast area between Hawaii and Mexico. “However, large-sized animals that are fixed to the seafloor are still very rare in the tracks, showing little signs of recovery,” he said.

Courtesy of The Metals Company.

The study’s release coincides with a key meeting of the UN’s International Seabed Authority (ISA) in Kingston, Jamaica, where delegates from 36 countries are reviewing over hundreds of proposed amendments to a 256-page draft mining code that will rule commercial deep-sea mining. 

Environmental groups have called for a halt to such activities, a position supported by 32 governments and 63 major companies and financial institutions.

While few expect a final text to be completed by the time the latest round of talks ends on March 28, Canada’s The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) plans to submit the first formal mining application in June.

TMC, which will hold fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results calls after market close on Thursday, has long said that deep-sea mining has a smaller environmental footprint than terrestrial mining. 

Recovery not only possible, but likely

Chief executive officer Gerard Barron told MINING.COM that the new study supports this view. “For years, activists have pushed baseless claims that nodule-collecting robots will dig up the seafloor and devastate ecosystems. This new study proves otherwise — showing that even with outdated, far more disruptive technology, recovery is not only possible but likely within decades,” Barron said.

“Sessile megafauna such as sponges were scarce in track areas where nodules were removed, as expected, but were observed attached to nodules left behind by the 1979 collector. This suggests a potential mitigation strategy — leaving some nodules intact to support recolonization by reliant organisms,” he said.

It was historically thought that the deep sea was fairly lifeless, but recent studies are challenging this perception. Image: ©National Oceanography Centre and The Trustees of the Natural History Museum, with acknowledgement to the SMARTEX project.

TMC has pledged to leave at least 30% of its contract areas untouched to facilitate recovery. “Our own nodule collector will disturb just the top 3 cm of sediment, not the 80 cm as seen in the 1970s trials,” Barron noted.

Opponents warn that the long-term consequences of deep-sea mining remain uncertain, advocating for further research before large-scale extraction begins. Supporters argue that the industry is vital for meeting growing mineral demand.

According to the International Energy Agency, demand for copper and rare earth metals is expected to rise by 40%, while the need for nickel, cobalt, and lithium from clean energy technologies alone could increase by 60%, 70%, and 90%, respectively.

The Metals Company to apply for deep sea exploration license under US legislation

Reuters | March 27, 2025 | 

TMC hopes to begin seafloor mining by late 2025. Credit: The Metals Company

Canadian miner The Metals Company said on Thursday it had formally initiated a process under the US Department of Commerce to apply for exploration licenses and permits to extract minerals from the ocean floor.

The company plans to apply under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act of 1980 (DSHMRA) instead of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), stating the latter had not yet adopted regulations around deep seabed exploitation.

It also added that it has requested a pre-application consultation with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

TMC’s bid to become the first company to gain approval to develop deep sea minerals has been controversial. Environmental groups are calling for all activities to be banned, warning that industrial operations on the ocean floor could cause irreversible biodiversity loss.

This move comes at a time when delegations from 36 countries are attending a council meeting of the UN’s ISA in Kingston, Jamaica this week to decide if mining companies should be allowed to extract metals such as copper or cobalt from the ocean floor.

Few expect a final text for the mining code to be completed by the end of the latest round of talks on March 28, with delegates also planning to discuss potential actions if a mining application is submitted before the regulations are completed.

“We believe we have sufficient knowledge to get started and prove we can manage environmental risks. What we need is a regulator with a robust regulatory regime, and who is willing to give our application a fair hearing,” said Gerard Barron, CEO of The Metals Company.

Advocacy group Greenpeace said the move was “desperate”, accusing the company of “encouraging a breach of customary international law”, by attempting to mine the international seabed under US legislation.

(By Seher Dareen and Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Vijay Kishore)

Dutch Project to Design Liquid Hydrogen Powered Bulk Carrier

Concept for a liquid hydrogen powered bulker with added benefits from wind propulsion (H2ESTIA)

Published Mar 27, 2025 6:21 PM by The Maritime Executive

A new project launched by a consortium of Dutch companies and supported by the government is focusing on what they are calling the world’s first zero-emission general cargo ship powered by liquid hydrogen. According to the project organizers, this initiative is a key pillar of the Maritime Masterplan, setting a new standard for decarbonizing European maritime logistics.

The project which is being led by the Dutch Innovation Company (Nederlandse Innovatie Maatschappij or NIM) focuses on designing, constructing, and demonstrating a hydrogen-powered cargo vessel that will operate in the North Sea and beyond. Managed by Van Dam Shipping, the ship is designed to transport bulk goods, eliminating harmful emissions and redefining the future of sustainable shipping.

“By integrating hydrogen technology with digital innovation, we are proving that zero-emission shipping is not just a vision—it is an achievable reality,” says Sander Roosjen, CTO at NIM.

At the heart of the H2ESTIA Project is its integrated approach to hydrogen-powered propulsion. The vessel will be equipped with a newly designed cryogenic hydrogen storage and bunkering system, enabling safe handling and storage of liquid hydrogen at extremely low temperatures. A hydrogen fuel cell system together with batteries will provide primary propulsion, delivering clean power.

To further enhance energy efficiency, the ship will incorporate wind-assisted propulsion and waste heat recovery solutions, reducing hydrogen consumption. Digital twin technology will create a virtual model of the ship, allowing for real-time monitoring, operational optimization, and enhanced safety measures.

The project the organizers said is set to demonstrate technological readiness and economic viability, ensuring such vessels can be commercially deployed. It also addresses major challenges such as the certification of hydrogen systems, risk management, and crew training, paving the way for the safe integration of hydrogen technology into maritime operations.

The H2ESTIA Project is supported by a consortium of leading maritime and technology firms, TNO, MARIN, the University of Twente, Cryovat, EnginX, Encontech, classification society RINA, and the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

 

Designs for CO2 Carrier and Floating Storage Using Elevated Pressure

A key part of the plan is the floating storage unit that would coordinate with the Elevated Pressure vessels (NYK)

Published Mar 27, 2025 7:10 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Knutsen NYK Carbon Carriers, a subsidiary of NYK and Knutsen Group reports it is moving forward in the development of its concepts for the transport and storage of carbon as part of the emerging CCUS (Carbon capture, utilization, and storage) sector. The company obtained Approval in Principle (AiP) from ClassNK for the design of liquified CO2 carriers as well as the floating liquified storage facility that would work in conjunction with the vessels.

While CCSU is expected to play a role in achieving carbon neutrality, the companies highlight that significant challenges remain to develop large-scale operations and lower the costs associated with the process. They highlight the issues that need to be addressed in developing the operations, including reducing overall costs and securing land for liquefaction and storage facilities. 

The joint venture company was launched by Knutsen and NYK in January 2022 focusing on the commercial development of a liquefied CO2 marine transportation and storage business. To address the challenges, they are focusing on using the elevated pressure (EP) method to store and transport liquefied carbon dioxide (LCO2) at ambient temperature. Coupled with the vessels is the terminal concept with the companies saying by utilizing an FLSU (Floating Liquefied Storage Unit), the cost of CO2 liquefaction and the land area required onshore in the CCUS value chain can be reduced, expanding the possibilities for realizing CCUS.

ClassNK has carried out a design review of the ship which would use LCO2-EP Cargo Tank technology developed by Knutsen to transport LCO2 in a stable state. Since there is no need to cool LCO2 to cryogenic temperatures, Knutsen says it is easy to handle and potentially reduces energy and costs during liquefaction. It reports the LCO2-EP Cargo Tank has been developed to transport LCO2 at ambient temperatures and elevated pressures (0 to 10 degC / 34 to 45 barG). The companies reporting in December 2024 that the construction studies had started for the vessel.

NYK and KNCC also worked with ENEOS Xplora in developing the FLSU concept that combines the LCO2-EP Cargo Tank technology with the Isenthalpic Expansion Cooling & Liquefaction Process. According to the companies, this process has been researched and developed in collaboration among the three companies while ClassNK issued an AiP following a review.

They call the FLSU a pioneering concept explaining that it liquefies and temporarily stores CO2 that has been collected and transported as gas in an onshore facility making it ready for further transport by LCO2 carrier. By utilizing the features of the EP method, which has the potential to reduce the energy required for liquefaction, and adopting the process, which is expected to be simpler and more compact than conventional cooling methods, it has become possible to install a liquefaction plant on a floating structure.

Development of the concepts comes as the first commercial CO2 transport and storage operations, Northern Lights a joint venture between Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies is set to start operations this summer. It has taken delivery of two dedicated LCO2 carriers and today, March 27, reported it has also decided to proceed with an expansion raising capacity from 1.5 million to a minimum of 5 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

Other projects are moving forward with both the UK and Denmark reporting a strong response to their offering potential storage sights. Royal Wandborg also reports it has reached a milestone in the construction of its EasyMax CO2 carrier as the hull sections are being assembled. It will be the first CO2 carrier built in Europe to serve the growing potential market.

 

The Maritime Hacking Village: Cyber Hacking for the Maritime Community

iStock

Published Mar 27, 2025 4:50 PM by Gary C Kessler, Nina Kollars, and Duncan Woodbury

 

 

It is time to get serious about hacking  — and engaging the hacker community — as a pathway to a stronger maritime environment. All of us in the maritime industry appreciate our respective nation's reliance upon the maritime transportation system (MTS) for our very way of life. We all know the numbers: In the U.S., the MTS reportedly makes a $5.4 trillion contribution to the economy, representing about 25% of the U.S. gross domestic product and supporting 30 million jobs. Nearly 80% of global trade and nearly two-thirds of the world's total petroleum and other liquid energy supply is carried by ship. Overall, approximately 90% of any nation's imports/exports move by sea. Most global supply chains are existentially dependent upon maritime shipping.

Simultaneously, the maritime shipping industry is well aware that nations can and do use the seas as a means for statecraft. Nations rely upon the global economic supply chains, as a tool for influence, not to mention the more direct hard power projection capacity of naval forces. All these interactions have generated the normative quasi-legal landscape of the maritime domain upon which we conduct business.

From a cybersecurity perspective, the MTS is a target-rich environment, filled with an ever-increasing number of poorly understood — and, often, unanticipated — attack surfaces. The ongoing digital transformation driving autonomous, smart, and sustainable shipping, and further increasing the efficiency of the MTS, provides myriad cyber attack vectors. The connection of ships to the Internet via satellite communication, ship-to-shore communication required by fleet operation centers, satellite navigation and radio-based situational awareness systems (i.e., GPS and AIS), shipboard communications, and maritime cloud services are particular targets and points of entry to maritime systems on- and offshore.

Enter DEF CON and the Maritime Hacking Village (MHV)

The maiden voyage of the Maritime Hacking Village (https://maritimehackingvillage.com/) is this August at DEF CON 33, with a goal to deliver the first and only immersive maritime hacking experience for attendees to learn what it takes to exploit and defend real-world maritime systems. DEF CON (https://defcon.org/) is the world's premier professional hacker event. Hosted annually in Las Vegas, DEF CON draws audiences and participants that include computer security practitioners, educators, amateur and professional (mostly white hat) hackers, journalists, national and international policy makers, lawyers, federal employees and military personnel, students, researchers, and others with an interest in anything that can be "hacked" — from hardware, software, and communication systems to door locks, card readers, and security policy.

Our mission is simple. MHV is creating a space for stakeholders to come together and navigate the changing digital vulnerability tides. We provide a space that showcases the maritime sector's technological, geopolitical, and adversarial landscapes. Upon this landscape we will explore the systemic cybersecurity vulnerabilities in the systems which underpin global maritime defense and trade.

It is not enough simply to wait for vulnerabilities to emerge from attack. We need to find them and address them ourselves. Together, MHV hacks to facilitate the discovery and sharing of knowledge integral to the development of effective maritime cybersecurity policy, industry standards and regulations, vulnerability information sharing, cyber threat intelligence, and most importantly – a capable and trusted workforce and community-of-interest.

Despite the importance of the seas for commercial, recreational, and military use, no single stakeholder controls the implementation of policies and regulations. Stakeholders unanimously agree that from machines to systems to governance, the maritime domain is fundamentally insecure. Still, seemingly insurmountable access barriers are preventing the security community, and anyone else, from doing anything to help.

The purpose of Maritime Hacking Village is to eliminate these barriers – and to provide everyone with the access and resources necessary to engage in maritime vulnerability research and cybersecurity innovation. MHV is a safe, shared space where the security community (elite hackers, trusted providers, and young talent alike) can develop and demonstrate their competence in attacking and defending real maritime systems – and where maritime industry stakeholders can engage with this community on neutral ground to grow their arsenals of knowledge, tools, trusted and capable providers, and fresh talent. We at MHV believe that this work together will create rising tides of awareness, information sharing, and innovation that will lift all ships and allow us to gradually secure the maritime sector.

MHV's demo floor will host a variety of advanced commercial maritime systems available for the conference attendees to try their hand at hacking. MHV will also host various learning events, including a multi-vendor capture-the-flag (CTF) contest that involves hacking challenges related to maritime bridge testbeds, real maritime radio (AIS, SATCOM) hacking, port systems hacking, social engineering and transportation badge counterfeiting, maritime grand theft auto, "swarm AI"-enabled unmanned watercraft, and a premier Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) CTF contest . Speakers and panels will discuss a broad set of topics about maritime policy, cybersecurity regulation (e.g., the new US Coast Guard cyber rules), maritime cyber research, new product development, maritime autonomous systems, next-gen maritime architectures, weaponizing OSINT, and much more. MHV will also have a policy suite where key invited policy makers will have their own space to meet and delve deeper into regulation and policy coordination that draws together the technical, systemic and governance elements necessary to chart a new course for the maritime industry – one that will ultimately make all of our maritime systems more secure.

MHV planning has been ongoing for many months and we are still seeking sponsors, equipment and challenge providers, maritime operators, and speakers. We invite the maritime community to actively engage with us in the Maritime Hacking Village. We look forward to seeing you in Las Vegas.

Gary C. Kessler is President of Gary Kessler Associates, a principal consultant at Fathom5, and a member of the advisory board of Cydome. Nina Kollars is a professor at the U.S. Naval War College. Duncan Woodbury is President and CEO of Liberas. All are the co-founders and co-directors of the Maritime Hacking Village.

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

Report: Panama Poised to Purge Sanctioned Tankers from Registry

Bloomberg reports Panama is moving to remove a further 128 sanctioned ships from its registry (file photo)

Published Mar 27, 2025 5:53 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

After an extended pressure campaign from the United States and activist groups such as UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran) the Panama Maritime Authority is poised to purge its registry of sanctioned tankers. Bloomberg is citing comments by the General Director of Merchant Maine for PMA, Ramon Franco made during a conference in Singapore.

According to Bloomberg, Panama is poised to remove 128 ships from its registry. They are ships sanctioned by the U.S. or its allies. The new Trump administration has been moving to expand the sanctions against tankers in the Iranian trade following a sweeping move in the last days of the Biden administration targeting the shadow tanker fleet moving Russian oil and gas.

Bloomberg highlights the move by Panama was made possible by changes to the administration process and regulations making it easier to expel violators from Panama’s ship registry. The report says at least 70 tankers have already been removed but the administrators pledged to become more aggressive in their actions against sanctioned vessels and other violators.

Separately, Bloomberg is also reporting the Trump “maximum pressure” campaign appears to be having an effect on tanker movements and deliveries. The news outlet calculates that 11 tankers are currently idle or slow steaming in the area around Malaysia and Singapore. Bloomberg reports the tankers have 17 million barrels of oil loaded. Further, it says more than 20 tankers are anchored idle near Iran’s Kharg Island terminal.

Bloomberg’s report asserts that more than two-thirds of the tankers that handled Iranian crude in 2024 had been sanctioned as of late February. Analysts at TankerTracker.com taking the wider view however said early in March that the U.S. has “only blacklisted 234 (or 45 percent) of the 522 tankers involved in the Iran sanctions oil trade” as of the beginning of this month.

UANI has long been critical of Panama with the NGO asserting that Panama has 18 percent (96 vessels) of the 510 the group has listed in its “Ghost Armada List” tracking vessels in the Iranian oil trade. The group notes its list has grown from just 70 vessels when it started the listing in November 2020. They currently list nine tankers registered in Panama as having been sanctioned.

Panamanian officials have highlighted their efforts in recent years to clear the registry after a change in administration. As the largest ship registry by number of vessels, Panama has had a large number but a small percentage of violators in the registry. 

Despite the ongoing pressure effort, UANI reports Iran continues to ship large amounts of oil. The group cites data saying Iran shipped 1.7 million barrels in February up from 1.3 million the month before. China according to the data is the largest customer receiving nearly all the oil Iran ships.

 

U.S. Files Suit Seeking $47M from Sale of Iranian Oil Hidden in Croatia

Oil terminal where the U.S. alleges the shipment was falsely identified as being Malaysian (Janaf file photo)

Published Mar 27, 2025 1:54 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

The United States is continuing its “maximum pressure” against the Iranian oil industry reporting it has filed a new civil forfeiture in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. to seize $47 million from the proceeds of oil sales. It is part of a long-running campaign by the U.S. targeting Triliance Petrochemical Co., a Hong Kong-based broker with branches in Iran, the United Arab Emirates, China, and Germany, that the U.S. says is a well-known Iranian front company supporting the Iranian regime’s petrochemical industry.

Triliance was first sanctioned by the United States in January 2020 on charges that it helps to finance Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) and its terrorist proxies. The U.S. said it had traced transactions in 2019 shipping oil to the UAE and China and transferring millions of dollars to Iran from the sale of oil which Trilance worked to conceal the Iranian origin of these products.  

Today’s suit details an elaborate scheme between 2022 and 2024 to facilitate the shipment, storage, and sale of Iranian petroleum products. U.S. prosecutors contend Iran was working to increase the marketability of Iranian oil in Europe and create future demand from European buyers.

U.S. Attorney Edward Martin said the suit was to show Iran that avoiding sanctions “is not as easy as playing a shell game with tankers.” The filing alleges in January 2022 Iran loaded approximately one million barrels of oil to a tanker that would later be sanctioned by the U.S.

After leaving Iran, the U.S. traced the oil including through three ship-to-ship transfers before it was offloaded for storage in Croatia. The U.S. alleges companies working with Triliance falsified documents and manipulated tanker AIS signals to conceal the origins and claim the oil came from Malaysia. Further, it is alleged that the facilitators paid the storage fees in U.S. dollars through U.S. financial institutions that would have refused the transactions had they known they were associated with Iranian oil. The oil was ultimately sold with the U.S. reporting proceeds of $47 million which the U.S. is moving to seize.

It is not the first time the U.S. has targeted Trilance and the proceeds of sales. In November 2024, the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., ordered the forfeiture of nearly $12 million connected with Triliance. Government lawyers highlighted a series of transactions and money transfers in 2020 linked to Triliance. In 2022, the U.S. had also gone after oil producers that it said were working with Triliance.