It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, October 06, 2025
RIP
All missing workers found dead at Freeport’s Grasberg mine
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) has recovered the bodies of all seven workers who went missing at the Grasberg copper mine in eastern Indonesia, following a mudslide last month that halted production at the site.
The last five miners were found on Sunday, concluding a weeks-long search effort after 800,000 tonnes of wet material swept through the site in early September.
Grasberg is the second-largest copper mine in the world and a critical asset for Freeport’s Indonesian operations. One of the identified victims was Victor Bastida Ballesteros, a Chilean national. The remaining victims are undergoing formal identification.
“We are grieving for our seven coworkers lost in this tragic incident and extend our sincere condolences to the families who lost loved ones,” chairman Richard C. Adkerson and president and chief executive officer Kathleen Quirk said in a statement. “We appreciate the extraordinary efforts of the emergency response team who worked tirelessly to locate our coworkers”.
Grasberg accounts for half of Freeport Indonesia’s reserves and is expected to provide about 70% of its copper and gold output through 2029. The company expects full operations to resume by 2027, with some unaffected areas possibly restarting later this year.
Freeport has declared force majeure on its Indonesian shipments and cut production guidance for both this year and next. Copper output in the fourth quarter will be “insignificant,” and sales guidance for 2026 is down 35%.
Global supply squeezed
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) estimates the cumulative loss between September 8 and the end of 2026 will reach nearly 600,000 tonnes of contained copper. This is roughly equal to the forecast 2026 output at Chile’s Collahuasi mine, the world’s third-largest.
The Grasberg disruption adds to mounting global supply pressures. In July, five workers died at Chile’s El Teniente mine, prompting a week-long shutdown. n September, Hudbay Minerals suspended operations at a mill at its Constancia site in Peru due to political unrest.
Copper prices are now approaching record highs, driven by tightening supply, looser US monetary policy, and a weaker dollar. Freeport says it is cooperating with the Indonesian government to investigate the incident, which it called unprecedented. The mine remains shut.
Op-Ed: US Navy's Networks Aren't Ready for a Contested Comms Environment
Recent acquisitions have focused on bandwidth-heavy, compute-intensive, headquarters-focused systems that are doomed to fail in contested communication environments
In his remarks at his assumption of office ceremony, Admiral Caudle stated that, “Great power competition is sharpening, threats and capabilities are proliferating, technological disruption is accelerating, the maritime domain is increasingly contested and the margin for error is shrinking. To prevail in this environment, we must build and sustain a Navy that is resilient, agile, globally present, and credible in combat.”
To accomplish this, the Navy must ruthlessly pursue two seemingly disparate capabilities – technical interoperability and the capability to operate in contested communications environments. The need for interoperability in naval operations has never been more critical. However, these operations will increasingly be forced to occur in contested communication environments, where data access and connectivity cannot be guaranteed. Balancing these two imperatives—interoperability and resilience in contested conditions—will be vital to successful maritime operations.
Interoperability enables coalition and joint forces to share information, coordinate actions, and execute missions with speed and precision. In a security environment where no single nation can address threats alone, it allows navies from different countries to communicate and share situational awareness and use common data standards and communication protocols. It also allows forces to integrate sensors and weapons systems for combined lethality and efficiency. Naval operations today—conducted with NATO partners, regional partnerships, or ad-hoc coalitions—depend on interoperability for command and control, intelligence sharing, and battle management.
Despite advances in networking and communications, contested conditions remain a harsh reality. Adversaries will employ electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and other anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies to disrupt communications and links. Operating effectively in these conditions requires resilient systems that degrade gracefully, continue core functions autonomously, and then reconstitute automatically. It also requires bandwidth efficient communications protocols that send only the minimum number of bits required to accomplish the mission. Forces also need data prioritization and edge processing, enabling platforms to process and act on information locally when disconnected from the network.
Systems that possess these capabilities exist today. But these principles have not served as first-order design considerations for many systems, and the Navy acquisition enterprise is not well-organized to test novel solutions from industry.
The challenge is to design and field systems that support improved interoperability yet can still remain effective in communications-degraded environments. This demands modular, open architectures that allow systems to plug and play across nations while still functioning independently when disconnected. It also requires distributed C2 models to ensure that no single point of failure can collapse operational effectiveness. Zero-trust cybersecurity frameworks will help maintain data integrity even when network control is lost.
Despite “interoperability” being a buzzword for years, the Navy and Marine Corps team, and the wider Joint force, has been extremely slow to improve. Stovepiped acquisitions, lip service instead of ruthless prioritization, and institutional inertia all stand in the way of much-needed change. Worse still, recent acquisitions have focused on bandwidth-heavy, compute-intensive, headquarters-focused systems that are doomed to fail in contested communication environments and leave commanders blind and unable to communicate with their forces. In some of these cases, Navy leadership has been won over by fancy and buzzworthy pitches for capabilities that do not actually operate as marketed.
Admiral Caudle must provide forceful and clear direction to the naval acquisition enterprise that he ultimately oversees. That enterprise must prioritize systems that maximize interoperability when conditions permit, and the ability to operate alone and unafraid when necessary.
Nicholas A. Kristof is a 1996 graduate of the United States Naval Academy and a retired submarine officer. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the official views of any organization with which he is affiliated.
This article appears courtesy of CIMSEC and may be found in its original form here.
Interview: Ramon Franco, General Director, Panama Ship Registry
New leadership at the Panama Ship Registry, the world’s largest by number of vessels, has dramatically improved compliance, purged sanctioned vessels and improved its image.
(Article originally published in July/Aug 2025 edition.)
Born and raised in Panama, Franco comes from a family of lawyers – mainly maritime lawyers. After earning a degree in Law and Political Science in Panama, he went to Madrid for a Master's degree in Maritime Law and Business. He then returned to Panama and joined the law firm founded by his grandfather. "I was destined to be a lawyer even before I was born, maybe," he quips, "because of my background."
Franco soon distinguished himself in the private sector and was named to the technical panel established by the Panama Maritime Authority for the reform of the General Merchant Marine Law of 2008. He was further involved in the development of the APADEMAR Maritime Society Project and in the preparation of the Executive Decree that organizes and regulates the operations of the General Directorate of the Public Registry of Ship Ownership. He also served on the Organizing Committee of the Panama Maritime Conference and Exhibition.
In recognition of his achievements, he was elected President of the Panamanian Maritime Law Association (APADEMAR) for two consecutive terms (2022-23 & 2023-24). On July 1, 2024, the newly elected President of Panama, José Mulino, appointed him General Director of the Merchant Marine of the Panama Maritime Authority, the entity responsible for the Panama Ship Registry, the world's largest with approximately 15% of the global fleet.
After a year on the job, Franco says he's "living his dream." He's also remaking the registry into not just the biggest but also the best by purging substandard vessels, transforming the organization and reinforcing compliance.
WELCOME, RAMÓN, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. WE'RE HONORED TO HAVE YOU ON OUR COVER. LET'S START WITH THE PANAMA MARITIME AUTHORITY AND HOW IT'S ORGANIZED.
Yes, thank you. The Panama Maritime Authority is the government entity in charge of supervising the maritime sector in Panama. There are four different Directorates – Ports, Seafarers, Public Registry and Merchant Marine. Merchant Marine is the one I head, and it's basically the Panama Ship Registry. In this sense, the Director General of the Merchant Marine is the head of the Panama Ship Registry.
IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE PANAMA CANAL AUTHORITY?
Yes. Completely different and separate. We are both Panamanian government entities, and we share the same goals of promoting the development of the maritime industry, encouraging investment and innovation in the sector and strengthening Panama's position as a global logistics hub. But we are both physically and organizationally separate.
TELL US MORE ABOUT THE REGISTRY.
Yes. The Panama Maritime Authority through the General Director of Merchant Marine operates and manages the Panama Ship Registry, which has two main components. One is the regulatory or compliance component through which the registry complies with IMO regulations – SOLAS, pollution prevention, environmental restrictions and so forth. The other is the commercial component through which we offer incentives to attract shipowners to the Panamanian flag.
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE INCENTIVES? WHY CHOOSE THE PANAMANIAN FLAG?
Well, the question actually is, "Why NOT choose Panama?" At the Panama registry, you have a whole state supporting your vessel and the registry, not a company or an authority. The registry of a vessel and registration of the vessel's mortgage or financing is backed by the Republic of Panama. That makes the registration strong and secure because you have the whole infrastructure of a country behind that registry.
Another big advantage is our wide international consular network. We have 53 consulates, which are basically commercial offices around the world. We have 22 technical offices providing services to shipowning companies and vessels worldwide on a 24/7 basis as well as a network of highly trained maritime lawyers. We have a network of a inspectors worldwide and are signatories of the main IMO conventions. So that makes our quality standards very high. In addition, we provide specialized incentive programs for individual companies' needs. It's personalized attention, and it gives our clients access to an international service catalog that Panama can offer not only for the ship but the company as well. If the company wants to establish in Panama or have a branch in Panama, it gives access to the whole international service platform that Panama as a Republic has to offer.
Impressive. Can you give us a little history of the Registry, how it evolved over the years?
Certainly. It didn't start as we know it today, and it started over 100 years ago in 1917 as the International Ship Registry of Panama. Then in 1925 the Panamanian Merchant Marine was created as an open registry without restrictions as to the nationality or residency of vessel owners. And it operated until 1980, when it came under the department of Consular and Maritime Affairs.
Then, because of the importance of the registry to the Panamanian and world economies – and because it had become the number one registry in the world by 1993 – it was elevated to a ministry. That was in 1998 when it became part of the Panama Maritime Authority, which also houses the three other Directorates mentioned earlier.
In 2008, the first official General Merchant Marine Law was issued, and that's a little bit of the history of the registry.
EXCELLENT! WHAT'S THE FOCUS OF THE REGISTRY TODAY?
We're focused on three different areas.
One is the organizational transformation. We made adjustments in some departments to bring them more in line with their functions. We've given more responsibilities to our international service officers. We are in the process of making some changes.
We're improving the customer experience, making it easier and more transparent – 24/7 access, online applications and forms, more electronic books. We're in the process of reforming the Merchant Marine Law of 2008 in order to be more effective and simplify processes, and we're consulting with major industry players in doing so. We also have a very aggressive strategy for getting into new markets and attracting new tonnage.
The third area is purging sanctioned vessels and maintaining a reliable and safe fleet. Basically, we're strengthening our quality management system. We're deleting vessels that are substandard or sanctioned. We're improving our fleet performance.
GREAT. IS THE REGISTRY ON THE WHITE LIST OF THE PARIS AND TOKYO MOUs?
We are on the White List of the Tokyo MOU but not the Paris MOU. We are on the Gray List there. But we're determined to get back on the Paris White List and that is one of my primary goals. We have a very high global compliance level of over 95 percent and, as noted earlier, we are busy purging the fleet of unwanted, underperforming vessels. We have a strategy in place to return to the Paris White List, and you will see us there soon.
THAT MUST BE A REAL CHALLENGE – MAINTAINING QUALITY STANDARDS WHEN YOU'RE THE BIGGEST REGISTRY IN THE WORLD.
Well, it is. But with a new administration in the Republic of Panama under President José Mulino, we have a special moment in time, an opportunity to change the emphasis.
Under this new administration, the vision that we have for the registry is to focus on the quality more than on the quantity that we are flagging. We're focusing on compliance with international regulations and on strengthening our operational and safety procedures.
For medium and high-risk vessels that are registered in the Panamanian merchant marine fleet, we are requiring additional inspections, additional surveys and additional verification of the ship's management systems. We give them six months to get their compliance level up to an acceptable level. Otherwise, they have to change flags.
WHAT IS YOUR ROLE AS GENERAL DIRECTOR?
I have a very broad range of functions overseeing the technical, legal, commercial, compliance and promotional areas. So I do a little bit of everything – kind of like a handyman. But of course I have a great team here in the Directorate of Merchant Marine to work with, so I must be a team player who knows how to work with his team.
For me, the main asset of the Panama Registry is the human talent we have here, and the first rule of leadership is that I do not ask them to do anything that I myself am not willing to do. So we have to take it up a notch and go the extra mile. I have to be the first one in and the last one out. Leadership is very important, but teamwork is crucial.
IS WORKING IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR DIFFERENT FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR?
Yes! To come from the private sector to a public office is a whole different ball game. It's like you're playing soccer and now you're playing basketball because things are different. But we try to complement each other. I bring a private sector mentality and learn from the public sector way of thinking and doing things, and that makes for a very good complementary relationship.
I'm fortunate to have a very talented and professional team here at the Registry, and that is key. I've worked in the private sector on maritime authority cases for more than 20 years now, and to have the opportunity to work with staff in the Panama Maritime Authority that have been working the same or more years than me is very fulfilling.
WHAT DO YOU LIKE MOST ABOUT YOUR JOB?
You never get bored. There's always something new happening – a new situation or a new challenge. So it's very rewarding to come here every day to work with my team. I'm also very thankful to the President for appointing me and giving me the opportunity to work for my country and my industry – to give back to those who have given me so much.
My father did it before me, and my grandfather before that. So you can say I was born into the shipping legal world and now have the opportunity to give back. For a maritime lawyer who grew up in Panama, the opportunity to be in charge of the number-one ship registry in the world is a dream come true. I am, literally, living my dream.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
ABS Approves HD KSOE Design of an Ammonia Vent Gas Treatment System
(L to R): Jeong-Sik Kim, CEO of LISCR Korea; Young-Joon Nam, COO of HD KSOE's SD Business Division; and Kwang-Nam Jung, ABS Director of Korea Business Development
An advanced design of an ammonia vent treatment system from HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (HD KSOE) received approval in principle (AIP) from ABS and the Liberian International Ship and Corporate Registry (LISCR).
The ammonia vent treatment system integrates compact scrubbers to treat ammonia fuel, which can escape during the purging process, to maintain safe concentration levels before discharge through the vent mast. HD KSOE says this design also minimizes wastewater production. ABS completed design reviews based on class requirements and IMO Interim Guidance.
“With our deep insight into the safety aspects of ammonia and advanced treatment technologies, we are supporting innovative clients like HD KSOE in developing equipment to accelerate the maritime industry’s journey to low or no carbon emissions,” said Patrick Ryan, ABS Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer.
“This certification from ABS strengthens HD KSOE's technology portfolio for eco-friendly equipment,” said Young-Joon Nam, head of the SD Business Division at HD KSOE. “We will continue to develop unique technologies and lead the global market for eco-friendly ships.”
ABS provides industry-leading guidance on the application of ammonia as a marine fuel. Download a copy of the latest ABS publication Safety Insights for Ammonia as a Marine Fuel here.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive
Autonomous Vessel Navigation System Verified by ABS
(L to R): Thomas Klenum, Executive Vice President, Innovation & Regulatory Affairs, Liberian Registry; Dohyeong Lim, CEO of AVIKUS; and Joshua Divin, ABS Senior Vice President, Marine Business Development
ABS awarded a statement of compliance certificate to AVIKUS Co., Ltd., for the fuel-saving verification framework that AVIKUS has developed for HiNAS Control, an autonomous navigation system.
ABS joined AVIKUS, shipping company HMM Co., Ltd., and the Liberian International Ship and Corporate Registry in a project to assess the fuel-saving potential of the navigation system by analyzing ship performance data from vessels with HiNAS Control installed. A verification framework was developed by AVIKUS to predict potential fuel savings in general vessel operations. ABS reviewed the framework based on existing international standards.
The HiNAS Control system provides vessels with suggested optimal route and speed data and also automatically controls steering and RPMs that enable route tracking, collision avoidance and fuel savings. ABS reviewed the installation of the system based on ABS Requirements for Autonomous and Remote-Control Functions.
“Autonomous technologies are not isolated products but fully integrated within vessel infrastructure and the result of numerous advancements in a wide variety of mechanisms including sensors, imaging, connectivity, machine learning and more. When used in vessel operations, autonomous functions have the potential to increase safety, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve performance,” said Joshua Divin, ABS Senior Vice President, Marine Business Development.
“Securing ABS verification is a critical milestone, but it is more than a certificate—it is data-driven proof that AI-powered autonomy is a powerful lever for decarbonization and operational efficiency for the industry. A 4 to 5 percent fuel savings is not an incremental improvement; for a global fleet, it represents a fundamental shift in profitability and environmental compliance. We are proud to partner with industry leaders like HMM, ABS, and the Liberian Registry to commercialize this transformative capability and define the future of maritime logistics,” said Dohyeong Lim, CEO of AVIKUS.
“At HMM, our operational philosophy is clear: strengthening our core competitiveness is the foundation of customer trust. The adoption of advanced autonomous technology is a strategic imperative, not an option, and is part of the transformation and innovation required to become a global top-tier shipping company. This joint initiative with AVIKUS provides a tangible tool to enhance service reliability and profitability, which reinforces our market position and accelerates our commitment to a sustainable, decarbonized future,” said Wonhyok Choi, CEO of HMM.
“The Liberian Registry is proud to support this impactful joint initiative between AVIKUS, HMM, ABS, and our Administration. By issuing a Factual Statement for the HiNAS voyage optimization system, we affirm its alignment with international standards for energy savings verification and congratulate the stakeholders on the successful outcome. This collaboration underscores our commitment to maritime innovation, improved vessel efficiency, and meaningful contributions to industry decarbonization,” said Thomas Klenum, Executive Vice President, Innovation & Regulatory Affairs, Liberian Registry.
The ABS Intelligent Systems Technology Center in Korea provides guidance in autonomous and remote operations as well as SMART Technologies. Learn more about ABS services related to these technologies here.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
DEEP Expands U.S. Operations with its First Subsea Human Habitat in Florida
DEEP, a pioneering ocean engineering and technology company, today announced a major expansion of its operations in the United States, including a $100 million investment in a permanent engineering and development hub in Florida and a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Houston, Texas. At the center of this expansion is Project Vanguard, the first crewed subsea human habitat of its kind to be constructed in four decades.
“Project Vanguard is a foundational step toward enabling a permanent human presence under the sea,” said Norman Smith, Chief Technology Officer at DEEP. “We’re not here to build just one habitat. We’re building an entire ecosystem for subsea habitation. Vanguard is just the beginning.”
Vanguard build in Florida Construction of Vanguard is underway in Florida, underscoring the state’s role as the hub of DEEP’s subsea innovation. Designed for four-crew, medium-duration missions of a week or more, the habitat will support specialist projects such as scientific research and environmental monitoring, technical diving and spaceflight training, and coral reef restoration.
Vanguard will also become the first underwater habitat to be classed by DNV, a leading international certification and classification provider for underwater technology, setting new global standards in subsea safety.
“Florida is not just the build site for Vanguard, it’s becoming the beating heart of our engineering and testing efforts,” said Kristen Tertoole, COO at DEEP.
Strategic U.S. partnerships As part of the Vanguard build program, DEEP has awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to Triton Submarines, the Florida-based manufacturer of advanced submersibles. Triton will provide critical engineering services, leveraging its expertise in pressure vessel design, certification, and underwater systems integration.
“We’re thrilled to partner with DEEP on Project Vanguard,” said Patrick Lahey, CEO and Co- Founder of Triton Submarines. “Our teams share a passion for precision engineering and a vision for the future of human-ocean interaction. This collaboration represents a new era in subsea technology.”
DEEP has also engaged Bastion Technologies, with its expertise in aerospace and subsea engineering, and Unique Group, a global leader in diving and marine services, to further strengthen the Vanguard project team with world-class technical capabilities. DEEP Manufacturing Limited
In addition to its Florida expansion, DEEP is broadening its U.S. manufacturing presence with the launch of a state-of-the-art facility in Houston, Texas. Here, Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing will be used to print high quality, large-scale metal components for global customers across the maritime, offshore, and aviation industries. This new site will enhance DEEP Manufacturing’s capabilities alongside its established operations in the UK and underscores DEEP’s commitment to strengthening the U.S. industrial ecosystem while driving innovation across multiple sectors.
Follow DEEP on social media @deepengineered.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
Bahri and IMI Announce 1st Ocean-Going Vessels Built in Saudi Arabia
Bahri, the Kingdom’s leading shipping and logistics provider, today announced the first order of six dry bulk carriers from International Maritime Industries (IMI). This milestone marks the launch of Saudi Arabia’s first large-scale shipbuilding project, reinforcing the Kingdom’s ambition to create a globally competitive maritime ecosystem in line with Vision 2030 and support the Saudi Inc. initiative, which aims to enhance integration among major Saudi companies and promote supply chain localization.
Designed to deliver significant operational flexibility and efficiency, the new geared Ultramax vessels will be constructed at IMI’s state-of-the-art shipyard in Ras Al-Khair, the largest full-service maritime facility in the MENA region. With their ability to access ports with limited infrastructure, they enable Bahri’s dry bulk to expand into niche markets and emerging trade routes. This adaptability will reduce exposure to market volatility while enhancing resilience, competitiveness, and sustainability in a rapidly evolving industry.
Eng. Ahmed Ali Al-Subaey, CEO of Bahri, said: “This agreement marks a strategic milestone for Bahri and a defining moment for the maritime industry in the Kingdom. Through our partnership with International Maritime Industries to launch the first large-scale national shipbuilding program, we are not only modernizing our fleet but also laying the foundations for a sustainable and globally competitive maritime sector in the kingdom. The construction of these new carriers will enable us to expand and elevate our service level into strategic markets, enhance the resilience of local supply chains, and deliver long-term value to our customers and stakeholders, in alignment with the ambitious objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.”
Eng. Abdullah Al-Ghamdi, CEO of International Maritime Industries (IMI): “We are proud to partner with Bahri on this historic milestone, which marks the beginning of Saudi Arabia’s first large-scale shipbuilding program. This order underscores IMI’s role as a cornerstone of the Kingdom’s maritime ecosystem, delivering world-class vessels built locally with the highest international standards. Together with Bahri, we are creating long-term value for the national economy, advancing the goals of Vision 2030, and positioning Saudi Arabia as global hub for shipbuilding and maritime services.”
This agreement reflects Bahri’s commitment to strengthening Saudi Arabia’s maritime industry, supporting the local economy, and contributing to the development of a resilient supply chain that enhances the Kingdom’s global competitiveness.
The products and services herein described in this press release are not endorsed by The Maritime Executive.
The Lonely Island at the Center of Taiwan Contingency Planning
From where I stood, at a stunning lookout on Mavulis Island’s highest hill, gleaming turquoise waters stretched out to the horizon – a reward well worth a short but punishing steep climb for a non-hiker like me.
It was a magnificent sight to behold. But the giant Philippine flag that proudly stood tall near me offered a reminder that this was not some off-the-beaten-path tourist destination.
This lone military outpost on the Philippines’ northernmost point looks across the waters to Taiwan. The sweeping view below is the vital sea lanes that link the South China Sea to the Pacific Ocean.
This otherwise uninhabited island, part of the province of Batanes, has quietly taken on a role much more significant than it might appear as a tiny dot on the map. Mavulis Island straddles the Bashi Channel, a key passage between the Philippines and Taiwan, waters deemed crucial should conflict boil over in the region. Mavulis is just a stone’s throw south of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, to be annexed by force if necessary.
Mavulis is much farther from Manila. To get here means an overnight boat ride and then some from the provincial capital of Basco. For this trip, I tagged along with a group of top Philippines generals on a visit in early September. It was less than a 30-minute helicopter ride from Basco and a two-hour ride on a military aircraft from Manila.
Some military strategists have said that the Bashi Channel could determine the fate of a potential invasion of Taiwan, which US intelligence agencies have suggested China’s leader Xi Jinping ordered his military to be prepared for by 2027, the centennial of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. The concern is that the PLA navy could blockade this passage to cut off Taiwan from the United States, should it decide to intervene, as well as allied forces. Control of these strategic waters in a conflict could offer a major advantage. Any disruption in shipping through this superhighway could also impact global supply chains.
The highest point on Mavulis Island (AFP Northern Luzon Command)
The Philippine military only started deploying a handful of troops in Mavulis for a sustained presence on the island in the last decade, amid China’s increasing assertiveness over the South China Sea and Taiwan. Part of their job is to hold the line as the first responders – ever watchful to alert the mainland should a threat appear. They’re at the first line of defence in a contingency involving Beijing and Taipei that some worry is edging closer to reality.
“This isn’t just some outpost – it’s a symbol of our nation’s sovereignty,” Marine 1st Lt. Renato Fatawil, commander of the Philippine Marines deployed to Mavulis, told me. “We’re here to protect what’s ours. We’re here to ensure that there are no illegal activities on our boundaries and that no foreign intruder sets foot on our land.”
Mavulis is quiet most days, unlike the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, where Beijing’s bullying and incursions are rampant. A few foreign poachers are spotted around Mavulis but soldiers don’t typically encounter Chinese presence or harassment. Chinese vessels, mostly research ships, are monitored by radar but rarely seen with the naked eye.
The Philippines will become involved if there is a war over Taiwan whether it likes it or not, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said in August, drawing a strong reaction from China. Marcos pointed to the geographic proximity as well the presence of tens of thousands of Filipino workers in Taiwan that would need to be evacuated.
“We do not want to go to war, but I think if there is a war over Taiwan, we will be drawn, we will be pulled in whether we like it or not, kicking and screaming,” Marcos said. “We will be drawn and dragged into that mess. I hope it doesn’t happen, but, if it does, we have to plan for it already.”
Map reproduced with the permission of CartoGIS Services, Scholarly Information Services, The Australian National University / CC BY SA 4.0
The Philippines has a mutual defence treaty with the United States, and the US military has expanded its footprint in the Philippines since 2023 with four additional bases under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement. Three of the sites are in the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela, not far from Taiwan. It remains unclear whether the Philippine government would permit the use of these sites for US military operations in a potential Taiwan conflict.
American military planners have also paid more attention to Mavulis and other islands in the Batanes archipelago. US forces have deployed sophisticated weapons across the province for joint exercises with the Philippine military in recent years. During a visit by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth in March – since renamed as Secretary of War – he announced that the two allies have agreed to stage special operations forces training in Batanes.
Just days after the visit, Philippine military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. made headlines when he ordered “frontliners” from the Northern Luzon Command – whose jurisdiction includes the waters of Luzon Strait, Scarborough Shoal, and Benham Rise – to “start planning for actions in case there is an invasion of Taiwan.” The military does not usually make public statements on a “Taiwan invasion” and Brawner might have been unaware that the event was streamed live on Facebook where it was picked up by the media.
“Do not be content with securing just the northern hemisphere up to Mavulis Island. Start planning for actions in case there is an invasion of Taiwan. We will extend the sphere of our operations … If something happens to Taiwan, inevitably we will be involved,” Brawner said. “There are 250,000 OFWs (overseas Filipino workers) working in Taiwan and we will have to rescue them. And it will be the task of Northern Luzon Command to be at the front line of that operation.”
“In the speech of Secretary Hegseth, he said that their objective is to obtain peace through strength. But how do you achieve strength? Strength is achieved through preparing for war. And so, we are following that line.”
The Philippine military has steadily ramped up its preparedness in recent years with exercises, whether alone or with allies, each becoming more complex and increasingly focused on preparing for potential “external aggressors”. The drills are largely situated in the country’s northern and western coasts, reflecting shifting strategic priorities. The military denies these are aimed at any particular country but rather for territorial defence and deterrence. China, however, views these drills as provocative and destabilising.
Military infrastructure upgrades have also started in Batanes. A forward operating base was activated in August in Mahatao in Batan, one of the islands in the province. “The Mahatao FOB will serve as a platform for territorial defence, maritime domain awareness, and humanitarian assistance and disaster response operations. Its location highlights the strategic importance of Batanes as the nation’s northernmost frontier,” the Northern Luzon Command said in a press release at the time. This is a positive step, but infrastructure development must speed up to match the urgency.
The armed forces now view China’s threat to Taiwan and its increasingly assertive actions in the West Philippine Sea as interconnected problems – a challenge that prompts the need for a coordinated response rather than be treated as separate issues. Top Philippine military officials are working to further strengthen a unified defence posture in the northern and western frontiers, recognising the inextricable link between a potential Taiwan crisis and escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea.
This was what our trip was all about when the high-ranking generals visited the military outpost on Mavulis Island on 10 September to get a glimpse into the daily operations and challenges faced by the sentinels of the north. “I wanted to show our best practices here so they can adapt them to their own operations. We’re actively exchanging ideas,” said Lt. General Fernyl Buca, regional commander of the Northern Luzon Command. “Events here are likely to affect Wescom (Western Command),” he said, referring to Chinese deployments that would augment its power projection in the South China Sea.
Buca hosted Vice Admiral Alfonso Torres Jr., commander of the Western Command overseeing military operations in Palawan and most of the West Philippine Sea, and Philippine Army chief Lt. General Antonio Nafarrete and their key staff during the visit.
“What happens here in the north will inevitably impact my jurisdiction,” Torres said. “For instance, the deployment of Chinese vessels in this area – we anticipate they may move south into our waters, so we’re preparing accordingly.” The upcoming Strategic Defence Command, he said, will assess the broader security landscape to ensure a cohesive awareness of the maritime domain. Command centres are also working to ensure mutual visibility and easier communication.
Nafarrete describes a pivot. The Philippine Army, the largest service branch and the dominant force in northern Luzon, finds itself rethinking its traditional strategic posture, away from counterinsurgency to external defence. “The Philippine Army is strengthening our capabilities as a reliable and responsive primary force provider to the unified commands,” Nafarrete said. “We are conducting large-scale training exercises such as the annual Combined Arms Training Exercise,” referring to the Army’s largest drill focused on external defence.
The visit I joined was apparently aimed at fostering the “one theatre” concept – a proposal by Japan to consider the East China Sea, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula and surrounding areas as a single wartime “theatre,” following concerns over China’s belligerence in the region.
The Philippine military has started operationalising the concept, Philippines Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said in July, although he was at the same time cautious about including the Korean Peninsula. Teodoro said a coordinating centre to enforce it will be launched in December by the “Squad” composed of the Philippines, Australia, United States and Japan.
Behind closed doors, the Philippines is also discreetly increasing its unofficial defence and security engagements with Taiwan due to mutual security concerns about China, according to multiple government sources, while still adhering to the “One China” policy.
Back on Mavulis – also known as “lonely island” – daily life is marked by isolation. For the Philippine marines and sailors stationed here, the mission is as much about maintaining presence as it is about readiness. Troops rotate every month or longer, depending on sea conditions, and rely on basic resources. The island feels quiet and peaceful, far removed from the tensions that surround it. Yet this tiny speck of land holds significant value that could shape regional security and contribute to preserving peace and stability.
Frances Mangosing is a Manila-based freelance journalist covering national security and foreign affairs.
This article appears courtesy of The Lowy Interpreter and may be found in its original form here.
The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.
Map reproduced with the permission of CartoGIS Services, Scholarly Information Services, The Australian National University / CC BY SA 4.0