It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, December 01, 2020
Tipping point for the climate can already be a reality in East Asia
IMAGE: GRASSLAND IN INNER MONGOLIA, NORTHERN CHINA view more
CREDIT: HANS LINDERHOLM
The climate in inner East Asia may already have reached a tipping point, where recent years' transition to abnormally hot and dry summers can be irreversible. This is the finding of a new international study by researchers at University of Gothenburg now published in Science.
Associated with the ongoing global warming, are changes that impact regional climate and ecosystems. In a worst- case scenario, these can reach what is known as a tipping point, at which point changes are fast and often times irreversible. Examples of tipping points are the sea ice in the Arctic disappearing in the summer or the melting of the Greenland ice-sheet.
Inner East Asia is a sensitive area
Inner East Asia, which includes Mongolia and nearby areas, is a sensitive region that has experienced a clear increase in the number of heat waves during the summer in recent decades. Together with stable high-pressure systems, which raise temperatures, reduced soil moisture can cause intense and long-lasting heat waves because of enhanced interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere.
"What this connection looks like in a longer preindustrial context is, however, unknown since long-term observations do not exist," says Deliang Chen, co-author to the study and leader of the Regional Climate Group (RCG) at the University of Gothenburg.
Annual growth rings from trees provide information on changes that effect their growth and this can be used to study changes in climate in the past.
"By choosing trees whose growth are sensitive to weather variations, the annual rings can be used to reconstruct different climate parameters with annual resolution hundreds of years back in time. Since trees have significant geographic coverage, this data can be used for detailed studies of climate changes over large areas," says Hans Linderholm, co-author of the study and head of the Gothenburg University Laboratory for Dendrochronology (GULD).
Study of tree rings showed a tipping point is close
Long-term observations of soil moisture are rare, but tree rings from trees, which are limited by access to water, can be used as indicators of this parameter. In the same way, trees that grow at high altitudes, where the growing season is short and cool, can be used to provide temperature-related information.
"In this study, we developed a new method for reconstructing both variations in soil moisture and changes in frequency of heat waves in inner East Asia, a region where the interaction between these parameters is very strong," says Peng Zhang, first author of the study and researcher in the Regional Climate Group at the University of Gothenburg.
These new reconstructions allow the scientists to study the recent warm and dry summers in a long-term perspective. The results show that the current high frequency of heat waves and low soil moisture have not been observed during the last 260 years.
"By combining observations, reconstructions and climate model data, we discovered that the link between land surface and atmosphere has become more pronounced in inner East Asia over the last 20 years, along with increased drying of soils. So we argue that reduced soil moisture enhances land-atmosphere coupling contributing to heating of the land surface, which causes more heat waves, which in turn reduces soil moisture and so on," says Peng.
The study's authors found that the recent pattern of increased warming and drought indicate that a tipping point in the climate is close, a change that could be irreversible and lead to a much dryer climate in the region.
"This would increase the stresses of ecosystems and societies in this already vulnerable region," says Peng.
IMAGE: THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER, SEEN HERE FROM A FERRY IN BANGLADESH, WHERE IT IS KNOWN AS THE JAMUNA. IT IS AT POINTS NEARLY TOO WIDE TO SEE BANK TO BANK. view more
CREDIT: KEVIN KRAJICK/EARTH INSTITUTE
A new study looking at seven centuries of water flow in south Asia's mighty Brahmaputra River suggests that scientists are underestimating the river's potential for catastrophic flooding as climate warms. The revelation comes from examinations of tree rings, which showed rainfall patterns going back centuries before instrumental and historical records.
Many researchers agree that warming climate will intensify the seasonal monsoon rains that drive the Brahmaputra, but the presumed baseline of previous natural variations in river flow rests mainly on discharge-gauge records dating only to the 1950s. The new study, based on the rings of ancient trees in and around the river's watershed, shows that the post-1950s period was actually one of the driest since the 1300s. The rings show that there have been much wetter periods in the past, driven by natural oscillations that took place over decades or centuries. The takeaway: destructive floods probably will come more frequently than scientists have thought, even minus any effects of human-driven climate change. Estimates probably fall short by nearly 40 percent, say the researchers. The findings were just published in the journal Nature Communications.
"The tree rings suggest that the long-term baseline conditions are much wetter than we thought," said Mukund Palat Rao, a recent PhD. graduate of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and lead author of the study. "Whether you consider climate models or natural variability, the message is the same. We should be prepared for a higher frequency of flooding than we are currently predicting."
The Brahmaputra is one of the world's mightiest rivers, flowing under a variety of names and braided routes some 2,900 miles through Tibet, northeast India and Bangladesh. Near its mouth, it combines with India's Ganga River to create the world's third largest ocean outflow, behind only the Amazon and the Congo. (It is tied with Venezuela's Orinoco.) At points, it is nearly 12 miles wide. Its delta alone is home to 130 million Bangladeshis, and many millions more live upstream.
The river routinely floods surrounding areas during the July-September monsoon season, when moisture-laden winds sweep in from the Indian Ocean and bring rain along its length, from its Himalayan headwaters on down to the coastal plain. As with the Nile, the flooding has a good side, because the waters drop nutrient-rich sediment to replenish farmland, and some degree of flooding is essential for rice cultivation. But some years, the flooding runs out of control, and low-lying Bangladesh gets hit hardest. In 1998, 70 percent of the country went underwater, taking out crops, roads and buildings, and killing many people. Other serious floods came in 2007 and 2010. In September 2020 the worst flooding since 1998 was still underway, with a third of Bangladesh inundated, and 3 million people rendered homeless.
Higher temperatures drive more evaporation of ocean waters, and in this region that water ends up as rainfall on land during the monsoon. As a result, most scientists think that warming climate will intensify the monsoon rains in coming decades, and in turn increase seasonal flooding. The question is, how much more often might big floods happen in the future?
The authors of the new study first looked at records from a river-flow gauge in northern Bangladesh. This showed a median discharge some 41,000 cubic meters per second from 1956 to 1986, and 43,000 from 1987 to 2004. (In the big flood year of 1998, peak discharge more than doubled.)
They then looked at data from the rings of ancient trees that researchers sampled at 28 sites in Tibet, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan, at sites within the Brahmaputra watershed, or close enough to be affected by the same weather systems. Most samples were taken from conifer species in the last 20 years by scientists from the Lamont-Doherty Tree Ring Lab, led by study coauthor Edward Cook. Since people have long been cutting down trees in populous areas, Cook and his colleagues sometimes hiked for weeks to reach undisturbed sites in remote, mountainous terrain. Straw-width samples were bored from trunks, without damage to the trees. The oldest tree they found, a Tibetan juniper, dated to the year 449.
CAPTION
Scientists calculated past rainfall and river discharges by measuring the rings of ancient trees within or near the Brahmaputra watershed. Here, researcher Dorji Dukpa of Bhutan's Department of Forest and Park Services extracts a core from a Himalayan hemlock.
CREDIT
Paul Krusic/University of Cambridge
Back at the lab, they analyzed the tree rings, which grow wider in years when soil moisture is high, and thus indirectly reflect rainfall and resulting river runoff. This allowed the scientists to assemble a 696-year chronology, running from 1309 to 2004. By comparing the rings with modern instrumental records as well as historical records going back to the 1780s, they could see that the widest rings lined up neatly with known major flood years. This in turn allowed them to extrapolate yearly river discharge in the centuries preceding modern records. They found that 1956-1986 was in only the 13th percentile for river discharge, and 1987-2004 in the 22nd.
This, they say, means that anyone using the modern discharge record to estimate future flood hazard would be underestimating the danger by 24 to 38 percent, based solely on natural variations; human driven warming would have to be added on top of that. "If the instruments say we should expect flooding toward the end of the century to come about every four and a half years, we are saying we should really expect flooding to come about every three years," said Rao.
The tree rings do show some other relatively dry times, in the 1400s, 1600s and 1800s. But they also show very wet periods of extreme flooding with no analog in the relatively brief modern instrumental period. The worst lasted from about 1560-1600, 1750-1800 and 1830-1860.
Climate change will almost certainly affect the flow of other major rivers in the region, though not necessarily in the same ways. The mighty Ganga, flowing mainly through India, is also powered mainly by the monsoon, so it will likely behave much like the Brahmaputra. But the Indus, which flows through Tibet, India and Pakistan, derives most of its flow not from the monsoon, but rather from the winter buildup of snow and ice in Himalayan glaciers, and subsequent melting in summer. In 2018 Rao and colleagues published a tree-ring study showing that the river's flow has been anomalously high in recent years. They suggest that as climate warms and the glaciers undergo accelerated melting, the Indus will supply plenty of needed irrigation water--but at some point, when the glaciers lose enough mass, the seasonal spigot will turn the other way, and there may not be enough water.
Human vulnerability to floods along the Brahmaputra has increased in recent years due not only to sheer water volume, but because population and infrastructure are growing fast. On the other hand, accurate flood warnings have become more advanced, and this has helped many villages reduce economic and social losses. "High discharges will continue to be associated with an increased likelihood of flood hazard in the future," write the study authors. But, they say, this could be counteracted to some extent by "potential changes in policy, land use, or infrastructure that may ameliorate flood risk."
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The study was also coauthored by Benjamin Cook, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Brendan Buckley and Daniel Bishop, all affiliated with the Lamont-Doherty Tree Ring Lab; Upmanu Lall of the Columbia Water Center; Columbia University ecologist Maria Uriarte; and collaborators at other U.S. universities and in Australia and China.
CAPTION
Low-lying land along the river in Bangladesh frequently floods during rainy season. This can benefit crops, but can also lead to massive destruction when it goes too fa
More information: Kevin Krajick, Senior editor, science news, The Earth Institute kkrajick@ei.columbia.edu 212-854-9729
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory is Columbia University's home for Earth science research. Its scientists develop fundamental knowledge about the origin, evolution and future of the natural world, from the planet's deepest interior to the outer reaches of its atmosphere, on every continent and in every ocean, providing a rational basis for the difficult choices facing humanity. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu | @LamontEarth
The Earth Institute, Columbia University mobilizes the sciences, education and public policy to achieve a sustainable earth. http://www.earth.columbia.edu.
Pyroclasts protect the paintings of Pompeii buried but damage them when they are unearthed
They may produce salts in artworks, the IBeA group of the UPV/EHU-University of the Basque Country has concluded
IMAGE: DR MAITE MAGUREGUI OF THE IBEA GROUP TAKING MEASUREMENTS IN THE MURAL PAINTINGS OF POMPEII USING PORTABLE TOOLS. view more
CREDIT: IBEA / UPV/EHU
The ancient city of Pompeii (in the south of Italy) ended up buried under ash and volcanic material in 79 CE as a consequence of the eruption of Mount Vesuvius. That fateful event made the unprecedented conservation of the archaeological site in the area possible because the pyroclastic materials spewed out by Vesuvius have protected the remains from external damage. So not only in cultural but also in scientific terms they are in fact highly prized sites where tourists and professionals of archaeology and even chemistry mingle.
For over 10 years the UPV/EHU's IBeA group, attached to the department of Analytical Chemistry, has been working at Pompeii within the framework of the Analytica Pompeiana Universitatis Vasconicae-APUV project. In 2015 the UPV/EHU and the Archaeological Park of Pompeii signed the first of the agreements thanks to which the methodologies and portable devices used by the research group are allowing the paintings to be analysed using non-destructive techniques.
Various studies conducted at the House of Marcus Lucretius, the House of Ariadne and the Casa degli Amorini Dorati or House of the Golden Cupids have concluded that "salts are responsible for the worst and most visible damage to the murals. In the end, the salts may dissolve and as a result material such as pigments, the pictorial layer, the mortar, etc. may be lost", said Maite Maguregui, lead researcher in this study. In this respect, the researchers have concluded that the leached ions from the pyroclastic materials and the ion-rich underground waters from the volcanic rocks promote the crystallization of certain salts.
"While the paintings remain underground, they are protected by the pyroclasts; but once they are brought to the surface, the salts start to form owing to the effect of the air, humidity, etc. So in order to conserve the mural paintings it is important to know in each case what the salt load of the surrounding pyroclasts is to be able to block, reduce or prevent potential damage. In fact, in Pompeii a large proportion remains buried and waiting to be studied," added Maguregui.
Fluorine marking the impact of the volcanic materials
"When the volcano erupted, it spewed out huge quantities of materials and the pyroclastic material is not homogeneous across the whole area; many different strata can be found," explained the researcher. Mineralogical analyses of samples collected at various points were made in the study, and the compositions of the leachates were determined. Thermodynamic modelling was also carried out to predict which salts can precipitate as a result of leaching and to determine their origins. It was concluded that the salts provided by the modelling coincide with those detected in the paintings.
The salts analysed in the murals contain fluorine ions, among other things. "Fluorines are ions of volcanic origin; it is not one of the main elements in the atmosphere. The emergence of fluorine salts indicates that the volcanic materials and the subterranean waters are exerting an influence on the crystallization of these salts," she explained. "So with the fluorine found in the mural it is possible to trace the impact that has been exerted and continues to be exerted by the pyroclasts and the subterranean waters on the paintings." The group's next aim would be to "map the murals on a large scale to see the extent of the salts and also to be able to determine the steps to be followed by the conservation staff when they unearth a mural painting", she added.
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First meta-analysis shows promise for yoga, meditation, mindfulness in concussion
When Rebecca Acabchuk was studying mild traumatic brain injuries while working on her doctorate in physiology and neurobiology at UConn, she met a student athlete who had suffered multiple concussions.
"When I started doing research on concussions, people just started coming to me," Acabchuk says. "Families at my daughter's school, anytime somebody had a concussion, I would hear about it - I would hear these personal stories and all the struggles of people who had concussions and their symptoms just didn't resolve."
So it was for the student athlete, who told Acabchuk that she would experience seizures when a smoke alarm went off in her dormitory.
"All of these symptoms she would have to struggle with - really profound symptoms - are an invisible injury," says Acabchuk, who earned her PhD in 2016 and is now a post-doctoral fellow with UConn's Institute for Collaboration on Health, Intervention, and Policy, or InCHIP. "People think you should be better, the injury happened so long ago. Why aren't you better? And then more frustration comes in when your doctor says just to rest, there's nothing else that can be done, but you're still getting headaches or feeling fatigued or depressed."
Chronic concussion symptoms are notoriously difficult to treat. But Acabchuk - who is also a yoga instructor in Hebron, and has been teaching yoga for 17 years - is hoping that a recently published InCHIP study, the first-ever meta-analysis looking at the use of yoga, meditation, and mindfulness-based interventions for the effective treatment of chronic concussion symptoms, will offer hope to those still struggling with their symptoms. The study was recently published in the journal Applied Psychology: Health and Well-being.
"This was really a passion project for me in the sense that it combines these two areas of interest, concussion work with yoga and meditation," says Acabchuk, who is the study's lead author. "We know from other studies that yoga and meditation may be helpful for reducing systemic inflammation, and we know that they are helpful for increasing self-compassion and reducing rumination if people are dealing with symptoms of depression."
Most studies looking at the effectiveness of yoga, meditation, and mindfulness on concussions have been small. For their meta-analysis, Acabchuk and her team pulled together data from 22 different studies, including both published and unpublished work, that all together included a total of 539 study participants, and looked at the impact of the three interventions on outcome categories - including mental health, physical health, cognitive performance, quality of life, and social/occupational performance - and on specific health outcomes, like depression, attention, anxiety, and fatigue. The team then applied advanced meta-analytical methods to compile and assess the results of those studies.
"The main results that we saw were significant reductions in depression and fatigue," Acabchuk says. "Especially with fatigue, it was a large effect size, which is impressive in the sense that fatigue is a difficult symptom for patients to deal with."
The meta-analysis found that mind-body interventions consistently provided symptom improvement across nearly all measured outcomes. The trends were remarkable, the researchers noted, because of the variety of patients enrolled in the studies, and the known difficulty of relieving chronic concussion symptoms.
Acabchuk says more and larger studies are needed to further investigate the benefits of yoga, meditation, and mindfulness in concussion treatment plans. She also says that more study is needed to help researchers and the general public understand the mechanisms by which these types of interventions promote healing and reduce concussion symptoms.
But importantly, including some sort of yoga, meditation, or mindfulness practice as part of a treatment plan for a mild traumatic brain injury appears to involve no adverse effects for the patient, she says - so there's little downside to giving it a try.
"Think of the brain almost like an ACL - if you tear your ACL, you're going to rest it, but you're also going to take steps to rehabilitate it," Acabchuk says. "If you think of the brain in that sense, a concussion is also like a rehabilitation injury in that, through rehabilitation, you can strengthen certain pathways in the brain. And we think the tools to help do that are breath-work, meditation, and mindful movement through poses from yoga."
She continues, "Maybe starting with a meditation app or online meditation group to learn the basics, and setting aside time to meditate 10 minutes a day. If you're a person who can't sit still, maybe yoga is better for you. If you're too tired at the end of the day, maybe a simple body scan with deep breathing exercises would be better for you. It's not going to be a miracle cure, but more of something that can provide benefits over time by incorporating these tools into daily life. I really do hope that this helps empower people who are struggling with their symptoms."
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In addition to Acabchuk, coauthors of the study included principal investigator Blair T. Johnson and Crystal L. Park, both professors in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences Department of Psychological Sciences; Julie M. Brisson '22 (CLAS); Olivia A. Parmelee '19 (CLAS); and former InCHIP researcher Noah Babbott-Bryan.
For more information about InCHIP research and funding opportunities, visit chip.uconn.edu.
Big data saves lives, and patient safeguards are needed
UMass Amherst research recommends guidelines to instill public trust and better protect people with opioid use disorder
IMAGE: ELIZABETH EVANS AND COLLEAGUES AT UMASS AMHERST STUDIED BIG DATA PRACTICES AT THE MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH'S PUBLIC HEALTH DATA WAREHOUSE, A MONITORING AND RESEARCH TOOL TO LINK... view more
CREDIT: UMASS AMHERST
AMHERST, Mass. - The use of big data to address the opioid epidemic in Massachusetts poses ethical concerns that could undermine its benefits without clear governance guidelines that protect and respect patients and society, a University of Massachusetts Amherst study concludes.
In research published in the open-access journal BMC Medical Ethics, Elizabeth Evans, associate professor in the School of Public Health and Health Sciences, sought to identify concerns and develop recommendations for the ethical handling of opioid use disorder (OUD) information stored in the Public Health Data Warehouse (PHD).
"Efforts informed by big data are saving lives, yielding significant benefits," the paper states. "Uses of big data may also undermine public trust in government and cause other unintended harms."
Maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Health, the PHD was established in 2015 as an unprecedented public health monitoring and research tool to link state government data sets and provide timely information to address health priorities, analyze trends and inform public policies. The initial focus was on the devastating opioid crisis.
"It's an amazing resource for research and public health planning," Evans says, "but with a lot of information being linked on about 98% of the population of Massachusetts, I realized that it could cause some ethical issues that have not really been considered."
In 2019, Evans and a team of her students and staff interviewed and conducted focus groups with 39 big data stakeholders, including gatekeepers, researchers and patient advocates who were familiar with or interested in the PHD. They discussed the potential misuses of big data on opioids and how to create safeguards to ensure its ethical use.
"While most participants understood that big data were anonymized and bound by other safeguards designed to preclude individual-level harms, some nevertheless worried that these data could be used to deny health insurance claims or use of social welfare programs, jeopardize employment, threaten parental rights, or increase criminal justice surveillance, prosecution, and incarceration," the study states.
One significant shortcoming of the data is the limited measurement of opioid and other substance use itself. "This blind spot and other ones like it are baked into big data, which can contribute to biased results, unjustified conclusions and policy implications, and not enough attention paid to the upstream or contextual contributors to OUD," says Evans, whose research focuses on how health care systems and public policies can better promote health and wellness among vulnerable and underserved populations. "We know that people have addiction for many years before they come to the attention of public institutions."
A goal of the PHD is to improve health equity; however, "given data limitations, we do not examine or address conditions that enable the [opioid] epidemic, a problem that ultimately contributes to continued health disparities," one focus group participant comments.
The study participants helped develop recommendations for ethical big data governance that would prioritize health equity, set topics and methods that are off-limits and recognize the data's blind spots.
Shared data governance might include establishing community advisory boards, cultivating public trust by instituting safeguards and practicing transparency, and conducting engagement projects and media campaigns that communicate how the PHD serves the greater good.
Special consideration should be given to people with opioid use disorder, the study emphasizes. "When considering big data policies and procedures, it may be useful to view individuals with OUD as a population whose status warrants added protections to guard against potential harms," the paper concludes. "It is also important to ensure that big data research mitigates vulnerabilities rather than creates or exacerbates them.
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Seismic guidelines underestimate impact of 'The Big One' on metro Vancouver buildings
Scientists examining the effects of a megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest say tall buildings across Metro Vancouver will experience greater shaking than currently accounted for by Canada's national seismic hazard model.
The region lies above the Georgia sedimentary basin, which is made up of layers of glacial and river sediments sitting on top of sedimentary rock. In the event of an earthquake, it would jiggle and amplify the seismic waves, causing more intense and longer-lasting tremors. However, the amplification caused by the sedimentary basin is not explicitly accounted for in the 2015 seismic hazard model, which informs Canada's national building code.
The latest U.S. national seismic hazard model now explicitly accounts for sedimentary basin amplification, but Canada's latest seismic hazard model, released this October, still doesn't, says lead researcher Carlos Molina Hutt, a structural and earthquake engineering professor at UBC.
"As a result, we're underestimating the seismic hazard of a magnitude-9 earthquake in Metro Vancouver, particularly at long periods. This means we're under-predicting the shaking that our tall buildings will experience," he warned. "Fortunately, Natural Resources Canada, responsible for the development of our national seismic hazard model, recognizes the potential importance of basin effects in certain parts of Vancouver and is actively reviewing and participating in research on the topic. They intend to address basin effects in the next seismic hazard model."
Using physics-based computer simulations, the researchers found that regions where the Georgia Basin is deepest will have the greatest seismic amplification. Delta and Richmond will experience the most amplification, followed by Surrey, New Westminster, Burnaby, Vancouver and North Vancouver. West Vancouver, which sits just outside the basin, will have the least.
Older, tall buildings at greater risk
The researchers also evaluated the impact of the magnitude-9 simulations on tall reinforced concrete shear wall buildings, of which there are more than 3,000 located in the Lower Mainland. They found that those built to building codes from the 1980s and earlier are at the greatest risk of severe damage or even collapse, with buildings in the 10- to 20-storey range experiencing the worst impacts.
"We have these pockets of tall buildings within the Georgia Basin--in Vancouver, Burnaby, Surrey and New Westminster. In general, based on a comparison of the code requirements in the past versus the code requirements now, many of our older buildings are vulnerable to these large earthquakes, particularly if we consider the amplification effect of the Georgia Basin," said Molina Hutt. The differences in expected performance between new buildings and older constructions reflects continuous improvements in seismic hazard estimates and engineering design provisions.
"When we build a structure, it only needs to meet the code of the time when it was built. If there is a future change in the code, you don't have to go back and upgrade your building. To address vulnerable existing buildings, jurisdictions must explore different seismic risk reduction policy options and adopt the most effective mitigation strategies," Molina Hutt added.
The study, published recently in Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, notes that concrete is the predominant construction material for buildings taller than eight storeys in the city of Vancouver, constituting 90 per cent of a total 752 buildings identified. Of these, more than 300 are reinforced concrete shear wall constructions that pre-date 1980.
"Typically, people think that, if we have a magnitude-9 Cascadia subduction zone earthquake, it will be worse in Victoria, because they're closer to the seismic source. But the reality is that, for tall buildings, we're going to be worse off in Vancouver, because this basin amplifies the shaking in taller structures," Molina Hutt noted. The probability of a magnitude 8 or 9 Cascadia earthquake is estimated to be 14 per cent in the next 50 years.
"We're collaborating closely with our neighbours to the south, who are taking active steps to account for these basin amplification effects," said Molina Hutt. "Our work attempts to assess the impacts of neglecting these effects so we can appreciate their significance and take action."
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"Impacts of simulated M9 Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes considering amplifications due to the Georgia sedimentary basin on reinforced concrete shear wall buildings" was published recently in Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.3361
Earthquake scenario for large German city
The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences helps with the question of what to expect in the event of a major earthquake near Cologne contributing to the government's "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection 2019"
GFZ GEOFORSCHUNGSZENTRUM POTSDAM, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE
IMAGE: CITY OF COLOGNE: PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE OF NO (LEFT), WEAK (MIDDLE), OR STRONG (RIGHT) DAMAGE PER BUILDING. OF THE ESTIMATED 170,000 RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN THE CITY, WE ESTIMATE THAT MORE... view more
CREDIT: GFZ
What if there is a major earthquake near Cologne? This scenario is the subject of the "Risk Analysis in Civil Protection 2019", whose report was recently submitted to the German Bundestag (document: Bundestag Drucksache 19/23825). In the 125-page document, a group of experts has listed in detail, on the basis of extensive research work, what effects can be expected in the event of strong ground movements. What Germans usually only know from TV and media reports from other countries is the result of a modeling of a strong earthquake near the megacity of Cologne: ground shaking, damaged and destroyed houses, blocked roads, many injured and dead.
The German Research Center for Geosciences GFZ and its researchers played a central role in this analysis. The GFZ had the task of modeling the ground movements caused by such an earthquake and quantifying possible damage to the city's buildings. In particular, new geophysical models for the Lower Rhine Bay were developed to estimate the influence of the near-surface layers of the subsoil on ground movements. The researchers created a "building-by-building" model of the city in order to quantify the number and vulnerability of buildings that could be affected by the earthquake.
A massive earthquake in the Lower Rhine Bay with a magnitude of 6.5, as assumed for the underlying scenario, is quite possible. The GFZ expert for historical earthquakes, Gottfried Grünthal, says: "Statistical analyses show that an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.5 is to be expected in the Lower Rhine Bay approximately every hundred to three hundred years. A quake with a magnitude of 6.5 is to be expected approximately every 1000 to 3000 years.
Marco Pilz, scientist of the GFZ section earthquake hazard and dynamic risks, describes the fictitious initial situation: "At a depth of only a few kilometers, a tectonic fault ruptures in the Lower Rhine Bay. Only seconds later the shock waves reach the surface and the nearby city of Cologne. The ground starts to shake, buildings creak and sometimes collapse, streets are blocked by falling debris. Good knowledge of the local underground conditions has shown us that these conditions must be taken into account for an accurate modeling of the shaking".
Based on this, a building-related damage assessment suggests that major impacts can be expected in the city of Cologne. "Old buildings are likely to be particularly affected, so that the distribution of damage in the city area could be quite heterogeneous," adds Cecilia Nievas, a researcher from the same section. "Of the estimated 170,000 residential buildings in the city, more than 10,000 could suffer moderate to severe damage according to our calculations".
The further effects, for example on utilities, are more difficult to assess and require detailed investigations: How many hospitals are affected, what capacities remain for the treatment of the injured, and how well do emergency services reach affected regions? GFZ-researcher Pilz: "Although we at GFZ had contributed a large part to this risk analysis, what was remarkable about the cooperation was the involvement of many experts from federal and state authorities, the district government, the affected districts, the cities and their immediately affected services such as the fire department, THW, railroads and energy suppliers. Everyone has worked together, from the very top down to the local level".
Section head Fabrice Cotton adds: "It was a very productive exchange of information. The elaboration of such scenarios is important because they provide an effective tool for dialogue with the authorities and for understanding their needs when planning relief operations. Such exercises can also help to gain a complete overview of the entire seismic risk chain (from the physics of the earthquake to its effects) and to work at the interface between different scientific disciplines (e.g. here between seismology and civil engineering)".
Biden Stokes First Nomination Fight With Pick for Budget Chief
(Bloomberg) -- President-elect Joe Biden is setting up his first confirmation fight with Senate Republicans by choosing Neera Tanden -- a sometimes-acerbic Democratic policy wonk with an often-partisan Twitter feed -- to serve as his White House budget chief.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 26: Neera Tanden, president, Center for American Progress, speaks at the “Impeachment Now!” rally in support of an immediate inquiry towards articles of impeachment against U.S. President Donald Trump on the grounds of the U.S. Capital on September 26, 2019in Washington, DC.
(Photo by Paul Morigi/Getty Images for MoveOn Political Action)
Tanden, the tough-minded head of an influential Democratic think tank, is a veteran Hillary Clinton aide seasoned in Washington battles over Obamacare and Donald Trump’s presidency. Her selection Monday as Biden’s nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget drew swift objections from GOP senators who could block her confirmation, with Senator John Cornyn of Texas calling her selection “radioactive.”
“Most Republicans are open to any reasonable nominee by the incoming administration,” he told reporters on Capitol Hill. “We’re prepared to try to work with the vice president once the vote’s certified, but she certainly strikes me as his worst nominee so far.”
Republicans have so far refrained from voicing outright opposition to Biden’s other intended nominees, including former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to be Treasury secretary, or Antony Blinken for secretary of State. Yet they are drawing the line with Tanden, 50, who will be formally introduced to the public along with other economic team nominees by Biden during an event Tuesday in Wilmington, Delaware.
Tanden was one of six nominees Biden announced Monday for his economic team, including Yellen, Cecilia Rouse to be chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Jared Bernstein and Heather Boushey to be members of the CEA, and Adewale Adeyemo for deputy Treasury secretary. He has also picked Brian Deese to lead the National Economic Council in the White House, according to people familiar with his plans.
Tanden has been an outspoken backer of Democrats on Twitter and cable news channels, a role that is helping fuel the vehemence of Republican opposition. She tweeted “Love it,” when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was tagged “Moscow Mitch” for blocking legislation to protect elections from foreign interference and criticized Republican Senator Susan Collins for a “pathetically bad faith argument” in supporting confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
The Biden transition team recommended Tanden knowing that she would provoke Republican lawmakers, said a person familiar with the matter, but didn’t want to shrink from nominating someone they considered highly qualified.
The team plans to promote her personal story as part of their pitch that Biden’s economic advisers will understand the problems of working-class and poor people and work to reduce wealth inequality. The daughter of Indian immigrants, she was raised by a single mother who for part of Tanden’s childhood depended on federal housing assistance and food stamps.
Tanden didn’t return phone or email messages. Like other Biden transition officials, she referred to her mother’s time on public assistance in a statement she posted on Twitter.
“After my parents were divorced when I was young, my mother relied on public food and housing programs to get by,” Tanden said. “Now, I’m being nominated to help ensure those programs are secure, and ensure families like mine can live with dignity. I am beyond honored.”
The OMB director is responsible for overseeing the president’s annual budget and usually is one of the administration’s main negotiators with Congress on spending legislation. OMB also has extensive authority over federal agencies’ regulatory power, reviewing proposed rule changes on behalf of the White House.
Tanden’s nomination is a departure in a post that, especially early in a new administration, has often gone to people who spent years enmeshed in the intricacies of the congressional budgeting process such as Leon Panetta, who led the House Budget Committee for four years before Bill Clinton nominated him, and Peter Orszag, who was director of the Congressional Budget Office when chosen by Barack Obama.
Yet Tanden brings a firm grounding in health policy at a time when the expansions in coverage Biden seeks may depend on her undoing federal regulations that Trump used to undercut Obamacare. Her years as the director of the Center for American Progress think tank, founded during the George W. Bush administration to promote liberal policies, also have placed her in the middle of the party’s debates.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, likely to be chairman of the Budget Committee that would have to first confirm Tanden, predicted an “uphill” battle.
“We’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” he said. “She had a lot to say. Going to be a long hearing.”
Collins, whose support is key to getting 51 votes in a GOP Senate, said, “I do not know her much about her but I’ve heard that she’s a very prolific user of Twitter,” and declined further comment.
Tanden wouldn’t be the first political choice for the job. Trump selected Republican Congressman Mick Mulvaney, a founding member of the conservative Freedom Caucus and a follower of the Tea Party movement as his budget director, setting a precedent for the job to go to a fierce partisan warrior.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York scoffed at “overblown complaints” about Tanden’s past criticisms of Republicans.
“Honestly, the hypocrisy is astounding,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “If Republicans are concerned about criticism on Twitter, their complaints are better directed at President Trump.” Clinton Ties
Tanden’s long connection with the Clinton family, stretching back to Bill Clinton’s White House and including roles as a policy adviser in Hillary Clinton’s 2000 Senate campaign and 2008 presidential campaign, also have led to tangles with progressives in the party.
Senator Bernie Sanders, a former Democratic presidential candidate, sent a scathing letter in 2019 to the board of the Center for American Progress after a publication associated with the organization produced a video that went viral mocking Sanders for his status as a millionaire despite vilifying the wealthy in his campaigns. He accused Tanden of “maligning my staff and supporters and belittling progressive ideas.”
Sanders press representatives didn’t respond to a request for comment. A spokeswoman for Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, another progressive former presidential candidate, said she would back Tanden’s confirmation. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who also ran in this year’s Democratic presidential contest, extolled her in a Twitter post as “brilliant and laser-focused on making our country a fairer place for all.”
Tanden quickly moved past the bad blood in the 2008 Democratic primaries to shift from Clinton’s campaign to a role as chief domestic policy adviser to Obama in the general election. She was closely involved in the struggle for Obamacare as a senior adviser for health reform at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Biden’s incoming White House chief of staff, Ron Klain was closely involved in the Center for American Progress, including holding a position on the board of its affiliated action fund, and developed a high opinion of Tanden, said a person familiar with the transition.
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Staff on the ICU unit at Peter Lougheed Centre in Calgary are pictured in this file photo from April 17, 2020.
Alberta Health Services says a memo urging Calgary hospital staff to reduce use of oxygen is a proactive response to an anticipated increase in demand as COVID-19 hospitalizations climb.
But some doctors say the request is concerning and not something they've seen before.
"Due to the limitations of the bulk oxygen systems at some adult acute care sites in Calgary and the expected increase in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to reduce the demand on the bulk oxygen system," wrote Calgary zone respiratory program leads Carmella Steinke and Dr. Jonathan Gaudet on Friday.
Bulk oxygen refers to how oxygen is stored in a large volume in hospitals in liquid form. It is delivered to each patient's room by pipes — almost like tap water.
"Clinical measures require everyone to engage in oxygen conservation measures immediately."
The memo advises doctors and nurses to assess patients to see if their oxygen use can be reduced and to "target the lowest tolerable" levels of oxygen saturation in a patient's blood.
It said the sites most affected are Foothills Medical Centre, Rockyview General Hospital, and Peter Lougheed Centre, all of which currently have COVID-19 outbreaks.
Dr. David Zygun, Edmonton zone medical director for Alberta Health Services, said during Monday's provincial COVID-19 update that the memo was part of an "anticipatory" plan to make sure there are ample resources.
An AHS spokesperson told CBC that Calgary has an adequate supply of oxygen to meet patient's needs, and that any limitation is not in the oxygen supply itself but instead in the capacity of the pipes that deliver oxygen from a centralized source.
"The O2 monitoring and conservation memo circulated was to remind clinicians to provide oxygen therapy in an evidence-informed, responsible manner and to be proactive in safeguarding the resource recognizing that we anticipate a potential increase in patients in need of oxygen therapy," AHS said.
Infrastructure upgrades on the system are underway to be completed by June next year, and AHS said in the meantime it's working with health-care providers to appropriately conserve oxygen resources. 'Restrictions are alarming'
However, Dr. Kerri Johannson said the memo was a first in her 15 years working as a pulmonary medicine specialist in Calgary.
"These restrictions are alarming in that we've never been asked to ration or limit oxygen in an acute care setting before," said Johannson, who is also a clinical assistant professor in the departments of medicine and community health sciences at the University of Calgary.
Johannson said the measures the memo calls for likely don't pose any harm to patients, but they do show strain on the health-care system.
"Oxygen is fundamental supportive care for many hospitalized patients and certainly in patients with COVID-19. So I think while these current measures seem reasonable and I don't think they're compromising patient safety, they raise a major red flag in that we don't know what's going to be rationed next. We've heard of doubling up of ICU beds happening in Edmonton," she said.
"I think what this signifies to me is just the fact that we plan for a certain volume of health-care delivery and in usual times, this would not be a problem."
NDP Opposition health critic David Shepherd told the house on Monday that the memo indicates a reason for concern.
"Even as our hospitals are packed full of the critically sick, AHS is running short on oxygen," he said.
Health Minister Tyler Shandro responded saying that was not the case, and that the memo represented a contingency plan and something that happens "often throughout any given year."
On Monday there were 453 people in hospital and 96 in intensive care in the province.
Dr. Joe Vipond, an emergency doctor and clinical assistant professor at the University of Calgary, said with the number of patients in hospital doubling every few weeks, the system will hit pinch points.
"I am concerned because I don't know what the future holds," he said.
GM sent back to drawing board after most South Korea union members reject labour deal
The logo of GM Korea is seen at an its plant in Incheon
SEOUL (Reuters) - General Motors Co, which has long struggled with labour relations in South Korea, will have to renegotiate a preliminary labour deal after a majority of union members voted against it.
Only about 45% of members were in favour of an agreement reached with union negotiators last week for each member to receive a lump sum payment of 4 million won ($3,615) by early 2021, a union official said on Tuesday.
The union stepped up demands this year as wages have been frozen since 2018, when the U.S. automaker received a state-backed rescue package to stay in the country.
GM has rejected employee demands to raise the retirement age by five years to 65 and to build more vehicles at one of its South Korean plants.
The two sides have had 24 rounds of negotiations since July and GM's South Korean workers staged two four-hour strikes daily over 14 days last month in protest.
That has cost the automaker about 25,000 vehicles in lost production, according to an official at GM's Korea unit, which comes on top of some 60,000 units lost earlier in the year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus.
This month, the automaker issued its strongest warning yet that the unrest could in the long term drive it out of the country.
(Reporting by Heekyong Yang; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
