Tuesday, December 01, 2020

Plastic contaminants harm sea urchins

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

IMAGE: DEVELOPING SEA URCHIN LARVAE ARE AFFECTED BY CHEMICALS FROM MARINE MICROPLASTICS. LEFT - NOT TREATED. RIGHT - TREATED. view more
CREDIT: EVA JIMENEZ-GURI

Plastics in the ocean can release chemicals that cause deformities in sea urchin larvae, new research shows.

Scientists soaked various plastic samples in seawater then removed the plastic and raised sea urchin embryos in the water.

The study, led by the University of Exeter, found that urchins developed a variety of abnormalities, including deformed skeletons and nervous systems.

These abnormalities were caused by chemicals embedded in the plastics leaching out into the water, rather than the plastics themselves.

The plastic-to-water ratio in the study would only be seen in severely polluted places, but the findings raise questions about the wider impact of plastic contaminants on marine life.

"We are learning more and more about how ingesting plastic affects marine animals," said Flora Rendell-Bhatti, of the Centre for Ecology and Conservation on Exeter's Penryn Campus in Cornwall.

"However, little is known about the effects of exposure to chemicals that leach into the water from plastic particles.

"This study provides evidence that contamination of the marine environment with plastic could have direct implications for the development of larvae, with potential impacts on wider ecosystems.

"Our work contributes to the growing evidence that we all need to help reduce the amount of plastic contamination released into our natural environment, to ensure healthy and productive ecosystems for future generations."

Dr Eva Jimenez-Guri, also of the Centre for Ecology and Conservation, added: "Many plastics are treated with chemicals for a variety of purposes, such as making them mouldable or flame retardant.

"If such plastics find their way to the oceans, these chemicals can leach out into the water.

"Plastics can also pick up and transport chemicals and other environmental contaminants, potentially spreading them through the oceans."

The study used pre-production "nurdles" (pellets from which most plastics are made) from a UK supplier, and also tested nurdles and "floating filters" (used in water treatment) found on beaches in Cornwall, UK.

For the tests, each plastic type was soaked in seawater for 72 hours, then the plastic was removed.

Analysis of the water showed all samples contained chemicals known to be detrimental to development of animals, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls.

Water from the different kinds of plastic affected urchin development in slightly different ways, though all sample types led to deformity of skeletons and nervous systems, and caused problems with gastrulation (when embryos begin to take shape).

The study also raised urchin embryos in water that had contained "virgin" polyethylene particles that had not been treated with additive chemicals or collected any environmental pollutants.

These urchins developed normally, suggesting that abnormalities observed in other samples were caused by industrial additives and/or environmentally adsorbed contaminants - rather than the base plastics themselves.

Nurdles and floating filters are not waste products, so they are not deliberately discarded, but the study highlights the importance of preventing their accidental release.

The researchers say most plastics may have similar effects as those in the study, so the findings emphasise the importance of finding alternatives to replace harmful additives, and reducing overall marine plastic pollution.

CAPTION

The skeleton (green) and nervous system (magenta) of sea urchin larvae are affected by chemicals from microplastics. Left - not treated. Right - treated.

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The study team included the Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn (Naples, Italy) and the Institute of Oceanology at the Polish Academy of Sciences (Sopot, Poland).

It was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme and the Natural Environment Research Council.

The paper, published in the journal Environmental Pollution, is entitled: "Developmental toxicity of plastic leachates on the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus."

Even razor clams on sparsely populated Olympic Coast can't escape plastics, study finds

PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

IMAGE: RESEARCHERS FOUND MICROPLASTICS IN PACIFIC RAZOR CLAMS ON WASHINGTON'S SPARSELY POPULATED OLYMPIC COAST -- PROOF, THEY SAY, THAT EVEN IN MORE REMOTE REGIONS, COASTAL ORGANISMS CAN'T ESCAPE PLASTIC CONTAMINATION. view more
CREDIT: BRITTA BAECHLER | PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

Portland State University researchers and their collaborators at the Quinault Indian Nation and Oregon State University found microplastics in Pacific razor clams on Washington's sparsely populated Olympic Coast -- proof, they say, that even in more remote regions, coastal organisms can't escape plastic contamination.

Microplastics are pieces of plastic smaller than 5 millimeters that are either intentionally produced at that size, or break down from synthetic clothing, single-use plastic items, or other products. These particles enter the environment and pervade freshwater and marine environments, soils and even the air we breathe.

Britta Baechler, the study's lead author and a recent graduate of PSU's Earth, Environment and Society doctoral program, analyzed the concentrations of microplastics in razor clams collected from eight beaches along the Washington coast and, after surveying recreational clam harvesters,estimated the annual microplastic exposure of those who eat them.

The Pacific razor clam is one of the most sought-after shellfish in Washington. The state's Department of Fish and Wildlife said that during a recent season, the recreational razor clam fishery saw more than 280,000 digger trips with diggers harvesting 4 million clams for the season. It's also a key first food, cultural resource, and vital source of income for members of the Quinault Indian Nation.

During the study, a total of 799 suspected microplastics were found in the 138 clam samples, 99% of which were microfibers. On average, clams had seven pieces of plastic each.

Clams from Kalaloch Beach, the northernmost site near the mouth of Puget Sound, contained significantly more microplastics than clams from the other seven sites. Though the study did not explore the reasons behind this, Baechler noted that there were no major differences in land cover types between Kalaloch and the other sites, but Kalaloch is the closest in proximity of all sites to the densely populated Seattle metro area.

Baechler's team compared whole clams -- minimally processed as if being consumed by an animal predator -- and cleaned clams -- gutted, cleaned of sand debris and grit, and prepared as if being eaten by a person. They found that in thoroughly cleaned clams, the amount of microplastics was reduced by half.

Baechler said this bodes better for people -- 88% percent of the survey respondents reported cleaning clams before eating them -- than for ocean predators that aren't afforded the luxury of cleaning clams prior to consumption.

Surveys of 107 recreational harvesters determined the average number of razor clams consumed per meal and the number of meals containing clams each year. Combining consumption information with the average number of microplastics per clam, the researchers estimated Olympic Coast razor clam harvester-consumers were exposed to between 60 and 3,070 microplastics per year from razor clams for those who thoroughly cleaned their clams before eating them, or between 120 and 6,020 microplastics a year for those who ate them whole without removing the guts, gills or other organs.

"We don't know the exact human health impacts of microplastics we inevitably ingest through food and beverages," said Baechler, who now works as an ocean plastics researcher at Ocean Conservancy. "Our estimates of microplastic exposure from this single seafood item are, for context, far lower than what we likely take in from inhalation, drinking bottled water and other sources, but no amount of plastic in our marine species or seafood items is desirable."

Baechler and Elise Granek, a professor of environmental science at PSU, said that everyone has a role to play in reducing plastic pollution in the marine environment -- from plastic producers and product designers who can develop effective upstream pollution control solutions to consumers who can make substitutions in their daily lives to reduce their plastic footprints.

"We all have become dependent on plastics for our clothing and packaging, and the more plastic we use, the more likely it's going to end up in our drinking water, our food and our air," Granek said. "All of us have a responsibility to do what we can to limit the amount of plastic that we're using."

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The study's findings were published in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science. Co-authors include Granek; Scott Mazzone, marine and shellfish biologist for the Quinault Indian Nation; Max Nielsen-Pincus, associate professor of environmental science at PSU; and Susanne Brander, assistant professor of fisheries and wildlife at Oregon State University.

Guam's most endangered tree species reveals universal biological concept

UNIVERSITY OF GUAM

Research News

Newly published research carried out at the University of Guam has used a critically endangered species to show how trees modify leaf function to best exploit prevailing light conditions. The findings revealed numerous leaf traits that change depending on the light levels during leaf construction.

"The list of ways a leaf can modify its shape and structure is lengthy, and past research has not adequately looked at that entire list," said Benjamin Deloso, lead author of the study.

The results appear in the October issue of the journal Biology (doi:10.3390/biology9100333).

Terrestrial plants are unable to move after they find their permanent home, so they employ methods to maximize their growth potential under prevailing conditions by modifying their structure and behavior. The environmental factor that has been most studied in this line of botany research is the availability of light, as many trees begin their life in deep shade but eventually grow tall to position their leaves in full sun when they are old. These changes in prevailing light require the tree to modify the manner in which their leaves are constructed to capitalize on the light that is available at the time of leaf construction.

"One size does not fit all," Deloso said. "A leaf designed to perform in deep shade would try to use every bit of the limited light energy, but a leaf grown under full sun needs to refrain from being damaged by excessive energy."

The research team used Guam's critically endangered Serianthes nelsonii tree as the model species because of the complexity of its leaf design. This tree's leaf is classified as a bi-pinnate compound leaf, a designation that means a single leaf is comprised of many smaller leaflets that are arranged on linear structures that have a stem-like appearance. The primary outcome of the work was to show that this type of leaf modifies many whole-leaf traits in response to prevailing light conditions. Most literature on this subject has not completely considered many of these whole-leaf traits, and may have under-estimated the diversity of skills that compound leaves can benefit from while achieving the greatest growth potential.

This study provides an example of how plant species that are federally listed as endangered can be exploited for non-destructive research, helping to highlight the value of conserving the world's threatened biodiversity while demonstrating a universal concept.

The study was a continuation of several years of research at the University of Guam designed to understand the ecology of the species. The research program has identified recruitment as the greatest limitation of species survival. Recruitment is what botanists use to describe the transition of seedlings into larger juvenile plants that are better able to remain viable. Considerable seed germination and seedling establishment occur in Guam's habitat, but 100% of the seedlings die. Extreme shade is one of the possible stress factors that generate the seedling mortality. Testing this possibility by providing outplanted seedlings with a greater range of sunlight transmission than the 6% recorded in this study may provide answers to the extreme shade stress hypothesis.

The latest results have augmented the team's earlier research that demonstrated how a specialized leaf gland enables rapid leaflet movement when the light energy is excessive. This skill of being able to change the leaflet's orientation is an instantaneous behavior that mitigates the damage that may result from excessive sunlight exposure.

"Just because the tree can't move itself, that doesn't mean it can't move its leaves to avoid stress," Deloso said.

Serianthes nelsonii was listed on the Endangered Species Act in 1987. A formal plan to recover the species was published in 1994 and called for research to more fully understand the factors that limit success of the species. This latest publication adds to the expanding knowledge that the University of Guam is generating to inform conservation decisions into the future.

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CAPTION

Xyloxic metabolic pathways introduced in diesel raw material production strains

This study was carried out with a grant from the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT), as part of the Institutional R&D Program of KIST and the New and Renewable Energy Research Program of the Korea Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning, and it was published in the most recent edition of Global Change Biology Bioenergy (Top 0.55% in the field of JCR).

Tree rings provide evidence for climate regime shifts

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES HEADQUARTERS

Research News

Tree rings, with their special characteristics of precise dating, annual resolution, long time series and climate sensitivity, have been widely considered a useful proxy for past climate variations.

Researchers at the Institute of Botany of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have given an overview on using tree rings to identify climate regime shifts in a perspective paper entitled "Tree rings circle an abrupt shift in climate," which was published in Science on Nov. 26.

In the paper, Prof. ZHANG Qi-Bin and Dr. FANG Ouya provided background in the field and discussed its advances. They also referenced a paper reporting a recent climate regime shift to a hotter and drier climate over inner East Asia, which was written by lead author ZHANG Peng from South Korea and published in the same issue of Science.

"Careful attention is required when using tree rings to reconstruct a specific climate variable over a large geographical region," said Prof. ZHANG Qi-Bin. "Signals from the macroclimate must be extracted efficiently while removing the nonclimate noise embedded in the tree rings."

Changes in climate have dramatic effects on natural ecosystems and human society. Less well understood is whether these changes are irreversible beyond a certain tipping point, that is, whether they represent a climate regime shift.

Scientists worldwide are alarmed about the potential risks of abrupt climate changes and their impacts on ecosystems and society, yet it is still difficult to identify the exact occurrence of climate regime shifts.

To judge whether climate systems undergo regime shifts from one steady state to another, scientists must understand the natural range of climate variability over a time scale that is much longer than the new regime.

ZHANG Peng et al. compiled tree-ring width data from 76 sites throughout inner East Asia and successfully screened 20 sites with strong signals of summer heatwave frequency and soil moisture content.

They found that the magnitude of the warm and dry anomalies compounding in the past two decades is unprecedented over the past 260 years. They further illustrated that the heatwaves and droughts became tightly coupled, which is likely caused by a pronounced enhancement of land-atmosphere coupling along with anthropogenic climate change.

However, it is still challenging for scientists to disentangle the interaction of climate variables and clarify whether these interactions generate negative or positive feedbacks, according to Prof. ZHANG Qi-Bin and Dr. FANG.

Furthermore, spatial differences related to climate regime shifts are worthy of study.

Using tree-ring data as a proxy for past climate variability and forest dynamics, Prof. ZHANG Qi-Bin's lab has long been engaged in investigating the responses of tree growth to multiple dimensions of climate change and ecological disturbances, and in exploring spatial and temporal patterns of forest health.

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Natural resources governance -- responsibilization of citizens or forcing responsibility on them?

UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN FINLAND

Research News

The possibilities of citizens to participate in natural resource governance are increasing. Responsive and collaborative models of natural resource governance can open up new opportunities, but can also lead to unreasonable responsibilization, or even force responsibility on under-resourced organisations and individuals. This is the conclusion made in studies published in the Special Issue of Journal of Forest Policy and Economics, entitled Responsibilization in Natural Resource Governance and edited by Professor of Natural Resources Governance Irmeli Mustalahti from the University of Eastern Finland and Professor of Natural Resources & Environment Arun Agrawal from the University of Michigan.

The studies included in the Special Issue deal with natural resources governance in Indonesia, India, Mexico, Nepal, Tanzania and Russia, and show that natural resources governance involves a plethora of different actors for whom responsibilization has become more the rule than the exception. Often, local communities were given increasing responsibility for natural resources governance - without being given appropriate resources or operating conditions. In some cases, responsibilization had changed from mildly persuasive, to demanding, then to forced responsibility.

"The shift from responsibilization to forcing responsibility on local communities can be described as symbolic violence. Obligations and demands dictated from above are often a form of soft and invisible violence that can lead to corruption, social inequalities and exhaustion of natural resources," says Professor Irmeli Mustalahti.

The term symbolic violence was coined by Pierre Bourdieu, a sociologist and philosopher who observed and identified symbolic violence in nearly all power structures that societies have.

"In Finland, too, responsibilization has become an important objective, a tool for enhancing efficiency," says Professor Mustalahti.

She points out that some structures of governance and top-down demands do not necessarily support the well-being of citizens but instead force responsibility on them and are, in fact, manifestations of symbolic violence. Young people, too, are affected. This is a theme addressed also by the ALL-YOUTH research project which is supported by the Strategic Research Council coordinated at the Academy of Finland.

Professor Mustalahti and Professor Agrawal point out in their article that responsibilization and forced responsibility is not an issue in natural resources governance alone; the education and health care sectors are also affected. For example obligations can be transferred or reassigned to local communities, patients or students without giving them proper resources and operating conditions. In public discourse, forcing responsibility on citizens has been justified for reasons pertaining to climate, economy and labour policy.

"In order to support responsible and collaborative governance of natural resources, we need to have better understanding of citizens' skills and abilities, and of social structures and agency. Citizens must have adequate operating conditions, and tasks assigned to them must be in line with their resources and possibilities to influence," says Professor Mustalahti.

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Edited by Professor Irmeli Mustalahti and Professor Arun Agrawal, the Special Issue of Journal of Forest Policy and Economics, Responsibilization in Natural Resources Governance, is openly accessible at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/forest-policy-and-economics/special-issue/10DTN890MG0

For further information, please contact:

Irmeli Mustalahti, Professor of Natural Resources Governance, University of Eastern Finland
irmeli.mustalahti@uef.fi tel. +358 50 5632 071

Mustalahti I. and Agrawal A. (Eds.) Special Issue: Responsibilization. Journal of Forest Policy and Economics https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/forest-policy-and-economics/special-issue/10DTN890MG0

Researchers explore population size, density in rise of centralized power in antiquity

UNIVERSITY OF MAINE

Research News

Early populations shifted from quasi-egalitarian hunter-gatherer societies to communities governed by a centralized authority in the middle to late Holocene, but how the transition occurred still puzzles anthropologists. A University of Maine-led group of researchers contend that population size and density served as crucial drivers.

Anthropology professor Paul "Jim" Roscoe led the development of Power Theory, a model emphasizing the role of demography in political centralization, and applied it to the shift in power dynamics in prehistoric northern coastal societies in Peru.

To test the theory, he, Daniel Sandweiss, professor of anthropology and Quaternary and climate studies, and Erick Robinson, a postdoctoral anthropology researcher at Utah State University, created a summed probability distribution (SPD) from 755 radiocarbon dates from 10,000-1,000 B.P., or before present.

The team found a correlation between the tenets of their Power Theory, or that population density and size influence political centralization, and the change in power dynamics in early Peruvian societies.

The team shared their findings in a report published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.

"I've always been interested in how, in the space of just five to 10,000 years, humans went from biddy little hunter-gatherer groups in which nobody could really push anyone else around to vast industrial states governed by a few people with enormous power. From my fieldwork and other research in New Guinea, it became clear that leaders mainly emerged in large, high-density populations, and Power Theory explained why," Roscoe says. "Unfortunately, it was difficult until recently for archaeologists to get a handle on the size and densities of populations in the past. SPD techniques are a major help in bringing these important variables into understanding how human social life underwent this dramatic transformation."

Scientists have previously posited that population in northern coastal Peru rose during the Late Preceramic, Initial, Early Horizon and Early Intermediate periods, or between about 6,000-1,200 B.P. The SPD from Roscoe and his colleagues validates the notion.

The people who settled in the coastal plain first lived as mobile hunter-gatherers or incipient horticulturalists in low density groups, according to researchers. Millennia afterward in the Late Preceramic period, however, several developments brought increased interaction and shareable resources. People began farming, developed irrigation systems and became more settled as time passed. Eventually, some of the world's first 'pristine' states formed in the plain.

The onset and growth of agriculture, irrigation and sedentism, propelled by upticks in population size and density, fostered the capacity of political agents to interact with and manipulate others. Political centralization and hierarchy formed as a result, according to researchers.

Roscoe and his colleagues demonstrated through their radio-carbon SPD that the rise in centralized authorities in early Peruvian communities that resulted from farming, irrigation and settlement coincided with an uptick in population size. The results of their work demonstrate "a broad, low-resolution congruence between the expectations of Power Theory and what is currently known about coastal Peruvian antiquity," they wrote in their study.

The project also highlights the capability of SPDs for examining the influence of demography in the growth of prehistoric political centralization. Determining the extent of that influence, however, requires additional study.

"We're hoping this work demonstrates the value of SPDs for understanding the role of demography in the emergence and development of power centers on Earth," Roscoe says. "What we need now is to increase the size of our SPD databases and filter out some of the weaknesses we know they contain."

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Study identifies countries and states with greatest age biases

MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

Elders are more respected in Japan and China and not so much in more individualistic nations like the United States and Germany, say Michigan State University researchers who conclude in a pair of studies that age bias varies among countries and even states.

"Older adults are one of the only stigmatized groups that we all become part of some day. And that's always struck me as interesting -- that we would treat so poorly a group of people that we're destined to become someday," said William Chopik, assistant professor of psychology and author of the studies. "Making more equitable environments for older adults are even in younger people's self-interests."

While aging is looked at as something that's inevitable and a part of everyone's life, it's viewed very differently around the world and in different environments - which could be detrimental for people's health and well-being.

For both studies, Chopik and colleagues gauged public sentiment and biases toward aging by administering the Implicit Association Test -- which measures the strength of a person's subconscious associations -- on over 800,000 total participants in each study from the Project Implicit database.

The first study examined which countries around the world showed the greatest implicit bias against older adults. Published in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, the study is the largest study of its kind and was co-authored by Lindsay Ackerman, a post-Baccalaureate researcher in MSU's psychology department.

"In some countries and cultures, older adults fair better, so a natural question we had was whether the people living in different countries might think about older adults and aging differently. And, maybe that explains why societies are so different in the structures put in place to support older adults," Chopik said.

Collectivistic countries like Japan, China, Korea, India and Brazil -- which tend to focus on group cohesion and harmony -- had much less of a bias toward older people than individualistic countries. Individualistic countries like United States, Germany, Ireland, South Africa and Australia tend to stress independence and forging one's own identity. In addition to having greater age biases, the findings also revealed that individualistic countries are more focused on maintaining active, youthful appearances.

"Countries that showed high bias also showed an interesting effect when you asked people how old they felt. In ageist cultures, people tended to report feeling particularly younger than their actual age," Chopik said. "We interpreted this as something called age-group dissociation -- or, feeling motivated to distance yourself from that group. People do this is by identifying with younger age groups, lying about their age and even saying that they feel quantitatively younger than they actually are."

The second study honed in on individual states across the U.S. to see which demonstrated the most age bias, as well as how this bias was associated health outcomes. As the first and only study of its kind, the findings were published in European Journal of Social Psychology and the paper was co-authored by Hannah L. Giasson, a post-doctoral scholar from Stanford University.

The states with the highest age bias were mostly in the Southern and the Northeastern U.S. Additionally, many of most-biased states tended to have the worst outcomes and life expectancies for older adults.

"We found a strange pattern in which some popular retirement destinations tended to be higher in age bias, like Florida and the Carolinas," Chopik said. "Possibly, this could be due to the friction that occurs when there are large influxes and migrations of older adults to regions that are not always best suited to welcome them."

Additionally, states with higher age bias also tended to have higher Medicare costs, lower community engagement and less access to care. Chopik explained that one reason for the added health expenditures is because older adults with more illnesses cause a higher demand for health resources. The other reason is that those states might be worse at managing and administering support and funds for older adults. States -- and how they treat older adults -- likely affect how easily people can acquire these funds and services, he said.

"Both of our studies demonstrate how local environments affect people's attitudes and the lives of older adults. We grow up in our environments and they shape us in pretty important ways and in ways we don't even realize," Chopik said. "Being exposed to policies and attitudes at a country level can shape how you interact with older adults. At the state level in the United States, how you treat older adults has important implications for them -- for example, their health and how long older people live -- and even the economy, like how much money we spend on older adults' health care."

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(Note for media: Please include a link to the original papers in online coverage:

"Cross-Cultural Comparisons in Implicit and Explicit Age Bias" -
https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167220950070

"Geographic Patterns of Implicit Age Bias and Associations with State-level Health Outcomes across the United States" -
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.2707)

Covid-19 shutdowns disproportionately affected low-income black households

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

Research News

IMAGE: PRINCETON UNIVERSITY RESEARCHERS NOW REPORT THAT LOW-INCOME BLACK HOUSEHOLDS EXPERIENCED GREATER JOB LOSS, MORE FOOD AND MEDICINE INSECURITY, AND HIGHER INDEBTEDNESS IN THE EARLY MONTHS OF #COVID19 COMPARED TO WHITE... view more
CREDIT: EGAN JIMENEZ, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY

PRINCETON, N.J.--The alarming rate at which Covid-19 has killed Black Americans has highlighted the deeply embedded racial disparities in the U.S. health care system.

Princeton researchers now report that low-income Black households also experienced greater job loss, more food and medicine insecurity, and higher indebtedness in the early months of the pandemic compared to white or Latinx low-income households.

Published in the journal Socius, the paper provides the first systematic, descriptive estimates of the early impacts of Covid-19 on low-income Americans. The findings paint a picture of a deepening crisis: between March and mid-June 2020, an increasing number of low-income families reported insecurity. Then they took on more debt to manage their expenses.

The paper used data from "Fresh EBT," a budgeting app for families who receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, to provide the first systematic, descriptive estimates of the early impacts of Covid-19 on low-income Americans.

"Media coverage has focused on the racially disparate effects of Covid-19 as a disease, but we were interested in the socioeconomic effects of the virus, and whether it tracked a similar pattern," said study co-author Adam Goldstein, assistant professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs.

"It became clear that while all low-income households struggled in the early months of the pandemic, Black households in America were disproportionately affected. Even among low-income populations, there is a marked racial disparity in people's vulnerability to this crisis," said study co-author Diana Enriquez, a doctoral candidate in Princeton's Department of Sociology.

Enriquez and Goldstein set out to determine the economic impacts of Covid-19 on Americans of lesser means and the racial disparities within that socioeconomic group. They investigated a set of factors related to families' ability to satisfy basic needs including job loss, debt, housing instability, and food and medicine insecurity.

The researchers directly surveyed people who utilize the SNAP and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits. Study participants, who were already low-income and benefits-eligible before Covid-19, were surveyed through between the end of March and mid-June. Goldstein and Enriquez chose this time period because shutdowns were already beginning to affect Americans' economic livelihoods, but their economic status had not yet been completely transformed.

People were queried about their current and perceived status related to employment, housing, food and medicine accessibility, and debt load. For example, respondents were asked if they had stable housing, and if they believed their housing would be stable after that 30-day period.

They found that people who receive government assistance experienced pronounced effects in all areas except housing. Nearly 35% of all respondents reported losing their jobs by mid-June.

Financial strain and debt accrual also worsened significantly: 67% of people said they skipped paying a bill at the beginning of the shutdown. In each survey wave between the end of April and mid-June, 77% of households reported missing a bill or rent payment. And, despite being covered by SNAP, 54% of people said they skipped meals, relied on family or friends for food, or visited a food pantry due to the Covid-19 shutdown. By the end of the month, this figure rose to 64%.

When the researchers looked at the data by race, it became clear that low-income Black households fared worse than low-income White households on average. Low-income Latinx respondents fared worse than White households on some indicators, but not on others.

At the beginning of the April 2020, 30% of Black respondents reported that they or someone in their household had lost work during the shutdown. By the end of the month, that number increased to 48%. Likewise, 80% of Black households also reported taking on more debt to cover their bills by the end of April. In mid-June, rates of new debt were similar for Black and Latinx households (more than 80%), while approximately 70% of White households reported new debt.

"The survey results really reinforce the extent to which the Covid-19 crisis has kneecapped those households who were already in a tenuous position near the poverty line. Research shows that these types of debts and unpaid bills -- even small ones -- can compound over time and trap low-income households in a cycle of financial distress," Goldstein said.

"Even in a miraculous scenario where the pandemic ends in a few months and low-wage workers are rehired, tens of millions of households will still find themselves stuck in a financial hole without additional infusions of economic relief," he said.

The authors outline the study's limitations and possible future research avenues. First, the researchers focused on the prevalence of these insecurities, not their severity. They did not measure how many meals were being skipped, for example, or the compounding effects of additional debt. This, as well as other forms of insecurity like access to healthcare or treatment for Covid-19, could be addressed in future work.

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The paper, "COVID-19's Socio-Economic Impact on Low-Income Benefit Recipients: Early Evidence from Tracking Surveys," was published online at Socius in November 2020.

Worst-case emissions projections are already off-track

UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO AT BOULDER

Research News

IMAGE: A PLENARY AT THE 25TH CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES, HELD BY THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN DECEMBER 2019. view more
CREDIT: UNFCCC / UNCLIMATECHANGE, FLICKR

Under the worst-case scenarios laid out in the United Nations' climate change projections, global temperatures would increase more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) by 2100, leading to at least 1.5 feet (0.5 meters) in global sea level rise and an array of disastrous consequences for people and planet. But new research from the University of Colorado Boulder finds that these high-emissions scenarios, used as baseline projections in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global assessments, have not accurately reflected the slowing rate of growth in the global economy and we are unlikely to catch up to them anytime soon.

The new study, published today in Environmental Research Letters, is the most rigorous evaluation of how projected climate scenarios established by the IPCC have evolved since they were established in 2005.

The good news: Emissions are not growing nearly as fast as IPCC assessments have indicated, according to the study's authors. The bad news: The IPCC is not using the most accurate and up-to-date climate scenarios in its planning and policy recommendations.

"If we're making policy based on anticipating future possibilities, then we should be using the most realistic scenarios possible," said Matt Burgess, lead author on the study and a fellow at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at CU Boulder. "We'll have better policies as a result."

The IPCC was established in 1988 and provides policymakers around the globe with regular research-based assessments on the current and projected impacts of climate change. Its reports, the sixth of which is due out in 2022, play an instrumental role in shaping global climate policy.

To see if IPCC scenarios are on track, the researchers compared projections from the latest report, published in 2014, and data used to prepare the upcoming report, to data gathered from 2005 to 2017 on country-level gross domestic product (GDP), fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, likely energy use and population trends during this century. Burgess and his co-authors show that even before the pandemic, due to slower-than-projected per-capita GDP growth, as well a declining global use of coal, these high-emissions scenarios were already well off-track in 2020, and look likely to continue to diverge from reality over the coming decades and beyond. The COVID-19 pandemic's dampening effect on the global economy only accentuates their findings, they said.

As a result, they contend that these high-emissions scenarios should not be used as the baseline scenarios in global climate assessments, which aim to represent where the world is headed without additional climate mitigation policy.

When it comes to climate change scenarios, some scientists and climate experts fear that economic growth will be higher than the projected scenarios, and we'll be taken by surprise by climate changes. But that is unlikely to happen, according to Burgess, assistant professor in environmental studies and faculty affiliate in economics.

This new research adds to a growing literature that argues that economic growth and energy use are currently over-projected for this century. The research also points out that the high-emissions scenarios used by the IPCC don't fully account for economic damages from climate change.

The researchers recommend that these policy-relevant scenarios should be frequently recalibrated to reflect economic crashes, technological discoveries, or other real-time changes in society and Earth's climate. Anticipating the future is difficult and updates are to be expected, according to Roger Pielke Jr., co-author on the paper and professor of environmental studies.

Their study does not mean that people can let their guard down when it comes to addressing climate change, the authors stress. No matter the scenario, the only way to get to net zero emissions as a society is to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from our energy sources.

"We're still affecting the climate and the challenge of reducing emissions is as hard as ever," said Pielke Jr. "Just because it's not the worst-case scenario doesn't mean that the problem goes away."

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Additional co-authors on this paper include John Shapland in Environmental Studies at CU Boulder and Justin Ritchie of the University of British Columbia's Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability.

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