Monday, January 20, 2025

 

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Fraud Charges Against Singaporean Oil Trader Dropped After His Death

ZenRock was a high-profile oil trading firm and tanker charterer (file image)
ZenRock was a high-profile oil trading firm and tanker charterer (file image)

Published Jan 19, 2025 7:46 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

The founder of a Singaporean oil trading firm that collapsed amidst a financial crime scandal has died, his attorneys told a court earlier this month. 

Xie Chun, an experienced oil trader who founded ZenRock Commodities, was accused of fraud in connection with his company's collapse. His firm failed and was placed under judicial management in May 2020, and at the time it had about $600 million in debt. Its problems came to light at about the same time as the notorious implosion of Hin Leong Trading, the family-run bunker shipping and brokering firm that allegedly cheated several major banks out of billions of dollars.  

In 2022, Xin was charged with forgery, breach of trust and cheating valued at more than $100 million. Along with his operations executive Zhang Taiming, he faced a second case of alleged forgery that targeted Bank of China for $54 million in fraudulent loans in early 2020, just as the pandemic began. The two executives also allegedly defrauded Credit Agricole out of $17 million.  

Earlier this month, upon application from Xie's attorneys, a Singaporean criminal court abated (withdrew) all charges against Xie due to his death. The circumstances of his passing were not detailed. 

Zhang's trial remains pending, and proceedings begin on February 7. 

 

Report: U.S. is Convinced That Eagle S Cable Incident Was Accidental

Eagle S's lost port anchor, retrieved and lowered to the deck of a Swedish salvage ship (Finnish Border Guard)
Eagle S's lost port anchor, retrieved and lowered to the deck of a Swedish salvage ship (Finnish Border Guard)

Published Jan 19, 2025 8:35 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

Since late December, the Russia-linked tanker Eagle S has been under arrest in Finland on suspicion of rupturing five subsea cables by dragging her anchor for 50 miles. The Christmas Day incident was the latest in a series of three suspected sabotage attacks on the Baltic seabed, all involving vessels headed to or from Russia. According to The Washington Post, senior intelligence officials in the U.S. and the EU have become convinced that these repeat incidents were all accidents caused by inexperienced crewmembers, and had nothing to do with Russian "hybrid" warfare efforts. 

The Post's report was received with skepticism by some in Finland. Pekka Toveri, former head of Finland's military intelligence agency, told the paper that the accidental-damage theory was "total B.S."

"The most important thing in any hybrid operation is deniability," Toveri said, explaining how the incidents might have an accidental appearance. He pointed to the ships' anomalous movements and the well-funded, decadal Russian intelligence effort to map out NATO's seabed infrastructure vulnerabilities. 

Finnish National Bureau of Investigation inspector Sami Liimatainen, who is involved in the ongoing inquiry aboard Eagle S, gave a dismissive reply when asked about the Post's accidental-damage explanation. "I'm not even going to comment on that, I'll leave the information from foreign newspapers at their own value. The Finnish National Police is investigating the crime," Liimatainen told YLE. "Crimes are being investigated and solved. Nothing has changed."

Eagle S's lost port anchor was recovered from the bottom of the Baltic at the end of a 50-mile drag track, at the location where the ship was intercepted by Finnish forces. In order to start the drag track by accident, the Eagle S would have to lower and then secure her port anchor accidentally mid-voyage, without the crew's knowledge, and without the anchor running away. Then, over the course of a 50-mile transit, the crew would have to overlook the effects of the port anchor dragging on the bottom at 6-10 knots. 

Sweden warns of Russian, Chinese and Iranian hybrid warfare

Sweden - which was affected by two of the subsea cable damage incidents - has publicly acknowledged an ongoing state of hybrid warfare with Russia, characterized in part by covert threats in the subsea domain. 

"Hybrid warfare is not a kinder form of war. The aim is to harm or weaken us and our society - and NATO - through actions that are deniable and more difficult to derive and respond to. This can be done through measures that sabotage and destroy important societal functions, make decision-making more difficult or damage trust in the country's authorities and leadership," said Swedish Commander-in-Chief Michael Claesson. 

Claesson's ministry singled out Russia, China and Iran as active antagonists in this shadow conflict, and said that sabotage attacks (including targets in the power grid and telecommunication system) are among their methods. These attacks are planned by intelligence agencies, but are often carried out by hired hands in order to maintain deniability, the ministry said. 

"Sweden is not at war. But there is no peace either," said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. "True peace requires freedom and the absence of serious conflicts between countries. But we and our neighbors are exposed to hybrid attacks, carried out not with robots and soldiers, but with computers, money, disinformation and the risk of sabotage."

 

Yemen's Houthi Rebels Agree to Lift Red Sea Blockade

Houthi fighters sabotage the disabled bulker Tutor, sending it to the bottom, 2024 (Houthi Military Media)
Houthi fighters sabotage the disabled bulker Tutor, sending it to the bottom, 2024 (Houthi Military Media)

Published Jan 19, 2025 11:46 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

On Sunday, Yemen's Houthi rebels  announced plans to phase down their campaign against shipping in the Red Sea, beginning with a cessation of hostilities against "non-Israeli" vessels. 

The group's "Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center" issued a statement on Sunday reporting that the group is lifting its yearlong blockade on shipping in the Red Sea, following implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza last week. The first phase was a prisoner exchange between Israeli forces and Hamas; this took place successfully on Sunday with a trade of 90 Palestinian suspects for three Israeli hostages.

The center said that going forward, it would not attack most categories of ships, including ships bound for Israel; American or British ships; vessels partly owned by Israeli interests; or vessels operated by Israeli interests but owned by other nationalities. The Houthis still plan to attack vessels that are wholly Israeli-owned or are Israeli-flagged, at least until all phases of the ceasefire agreement are implemented. These fully-Israeli vessels are "prohibited from transiting the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean at present," the HOCC said.  

In a warning, the group said that it could resume hostilities against commercial shipping if U.S. and UK forces strike Yemen again. If that occurs, the group warned, it could resume its attacks on specifically American and British shipping. 

On Friday, Houthi leader Malik Al-Houthi suggested that the group's "naval operations have reached a decisive result and a real victory" in the announcement of the ceasefire, but warned that the group's activities could resume if fighting returns to Gaza. "At any stage in which the Israeli enemy returns to aggression and escalation, we will be ready to support [Hezbollah]," said Al-Houthi. 

The group's decision to back away from further anti-ship missile and drone strikes had been anticipated by many in the shipping industry. Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, told Reuters that the Houthis' capabilities have been significantly reduced by Israeli and American airstrikes over the past month, leaving the group eager for "a pretext to announce a ceasefire" and end their campaign. Multiple other sources told Reuters that shipping interests are already eyeing a return to the Red Sea route, though blue-chip carriers have emphasized that they still plan to wait and see how the situation stabilizes. 

Whether or not their assurances for Western shipping stay in place, Houthi forces have appeared to select vessel targets that do not align with their criteria in the past, and have occasionally attacked ships tied to their own foreign sponsors. 

The fate of the hijacked car carrier Galaxy Leader and her stranded crew remain uncertain. The ro/ro has been detained at anchor off northwestern Yemen for more than a year. 

On the same day as the HOCC's announcement, Houthi leaders claimed an eighth attempt to target the carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea. As with previous claims of Houthi attacks on aircraft carriers, U.S. Central Command has not commented. 


Gaza Ceasefire Raises Hopes of Renewed Security in the Red Sea

Houthi missiles on display at a parade, 2024 (Houthi Military Media)
Houthi missiles on display at a parade, 2024 (Houthi Military Media)

Published Jan 16, 2025 10:07 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that an agreement for a ceasefire and hostage exchange had been reached with terrorist group Hamas, setting conditions for the end of hostilities in Gaza - though an unspecified last-minute issue has delayed an Israeli cabinet vote to finalize the deal. If approved, it appears to satisfy most of the demands of Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have attacked shipping in the Red Sea for more than a year in protest of Israeli operations in Gaza. 

In a response to Netanyahu's announcement early Friday, Houthi leader Malik Al-Houthi cast the ceasefire as a loss for Israel and America. He suggested that the group's "naval operations have reached a decisive result and a real victory," and contributed to a "failure" for Israel in the Gaza Strip. He cautioned that the group would monitor the situation for the next three days as the deal takes effect; notably, Al-Houthi did not pledge a halt to attacks on shipping, and he left open the possibility of renewed strikes. "At any stage in which the Israeli enemy returns to aggression and escalation, we will be ready to support [Hezbollah]," said Al-Houthi. 

Shipping and security analysts have given mixed predictions about the group's intentions going forward. Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Marisks, told Reuters that the Houthis' capabilities have been significantly reduced by Israeli and American airstrikes over the past month, leaving the group eager for "a pretext to announce a ceasefire" and end their campaign. Multiple other sources told Reuters that shipping interests are already eyeing a return to the Red Sea route after a year of disruption, so long as sky-high war risk insurance rates come down. 

Others are less sure, especially since Houthi fighters have reportedly developed a revenue stream from their campaign. A UN panel on Yemen investigated their operations and spoke with regional shipbrokers and service providers; the panel heard multiple accounts that the group was extorting shipowners out of hundreds of thousands of dollars for each safe transit past Yemen, and estimated that the Houthis are earning about $2 billion per year from "security" fees. While the exact amount of the fee is debated, "there's clearly some deal-cutting," U.S. special envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking told The Economist - and those deals may create a business incentive for Houthi fighters to continue launching attacks. 

Blue-chip carriers have signaled that they do not plan a quick return to the route. Maersk has predicted that the Red Sea will stay shut down for global container liners "well into 2025," and a spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday that it is "still too early to speculate about timing." Hapag-Lloyd concurred, saying that the "agreement has only just been reached."  

Others will be unaffected. The Russia-linked "shadow fleet" tankers that ferry Russian oil to buyers in India and China have consistently used the Suez-Red Sea route, without interruption, and will likely continue to do so after an eventual cessation of Houthi hostilities. Chinese shipping interests have also benefitted from a public nonaggression pact, and many continue to use the route.


Yemeni Houthis to Limit Red Sea Attacks to

 Israeli-Linked Ships


By Charles Kennedy - Jan 20, 2025


The Houthis have announced a limited halt to attacks on ships in the Red Sea, but major shipping companies remain cautious.

Shipping giants are concerned about the long-term security situation in the region and are closely monitoring developments.

The prolonged conflict and attacks had forced many ships to reroute, disrupting supply chains and increasing shipping costs.



Following the Israel-Gaza ceasefire, the Iran-aligned Houthis will limit attacks in the Red Sea to vessels linked with Israel, the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center, through which the Houthis communicate with merchant shipping, has said.

“We affirm that, in the event of any aggression against the Republic of Yemen by the United States of America, the United Kingdom, or the usurping Israeli entity, the sanctions will be reinstated against the aggressor,” the center said in an email sent to shipping industry officials dated on January 19 and quoted by Reuters on Monday.

The Houthis will only target ships that are wholly or partially owned by Israeli individuals or entities, as well as Israel-flagged ships, the Houthis said, announcing a partial halt to the attacks in the Red Sea that have disrupted commercial shipping in the past year.

However, global shipping giants do not expect a quick return to Red Sea traffic.

“We will continue monitoring the situation in the Middle East closely and will return to the Red Sea and sailing through Bab el Mandeb when it is safe to do so,” A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S told Bloomberg in an emailed statement on Friday.

Last week, Israel and Hamas reached a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal following 15 months of war. During most of these months, the Houthis attacked commercial vessels passing through the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea.

These attacks forced the global container and tanker shippers to re-route their journeys between Europe and Asia via the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.

The longer voyages via Africa have increased travel times, delayed goods delivery, disrupted supply chains, and raised shipping costs.

Apart from Maersk, another shipping giant, Hapag-Lloyd, also expects no imminent return to the Red Sea shipping lane.

“The agreement has only just been reached. We will closely analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd told Reuters on Thursday.


By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

Controversy Swirls Around Argentina's Giant Waterway Privatization Plan

Government tender for dredging on the Paraguay-Paraná shipping route slammed by businesses as unfair, while environmentalists fear damage to wetlands

Port
Confluence of the Parana and Paraguay Rivers northeast of Corrientes, Argentina (NASA)

Published Jan 19, 2025 8:24 PM by Dialogue Earth

 

 

[By Jorgelina Hiba]

The waterway formed by the Paraguay and Paraná rivers is one of the world’s longest and most biodiverse river corridors, extending more than 3,400 kilometres from its source in southern Brazil, through Paraguay, and into Argentina to reach the Río de la Plata estuary.

For Argentina, it is also a vital route through which most of the country’s foreign trade flows. The country’s section of this natural channel – also known as Hidrovía, after the company that held its dredging and signalling concession from the mid-1990s until 2021 – enables around 80% of its exports, mainly of agro-industrial origin, to reach the rest of the world.

But the waterway is currently in the midst of a contentious process to privatise its management and enable works along its route, launched by the administration of President Javier Milei. In November, it opened a call for tender for a concessionaire to undertake a 30-year contract for the waterway’s “modernisation, expansion, operation and maintenance”, in a process that will be open until the end of February, and that has so far seen interest registered by European and Chinese companies.

However, the call for tender has generated fierce opposition from several interested business entities, who claim the government is favouring a single company: Belgian dredging firm Jan De Nul, which, as a joint partner in Hidrovía, held the concession until 2021, after which management returned to state administration.

Additionally, some aspects of the call for tender, namely works to widen and deepen channels along the Paraná, have come under fire from environmental organisations, who have warned about the possible environmental impacts of such works. They say that further dredging of the river could damage the surrounding wetland ecosystem that provides many ecosystemic benefits, ranging from water purification to climate change mitigation, while worsening the unprecedented water deficits it has been experiencing for the last five years.

More works, more depth

Since the end of 2021, the management of the most intensively navigated stretch of the Paraná has been without a concessionaire. Through the current call for tender, the government is looking for an operator to provide works and technology to expand the operational capacity of waterway navigation and boost the competitiveness of the Argentine economy.

To this end, the tender documents require the winning company to “modernise” the waterway not only by increasing its depth, but also through providing radars and satellite systems to track ships, new signalling equipment, and stronger control measures to combat drug trafficking – an activity that expanded dramatically along the route in the past decade.

For years, the main entities in the agricultural export sector – ports and grain exporters – have been insisting on the need for dredging to deepen the waterway to enable the passage of larger ships, improve the logistics of the shipping lines that transport grains, and increase the flow of raw material exports.

Gustavo Idígoras, president of the Argentine Edible Oil Association and Grain Export Centre (CIARA/CEC), noted that the route “is the only highway to connect with the world, not only for exports – more than 85% of sales go through the waterway – but also for imports, 90% of which enter through the Río de la Plata.”

Idígoras describes the current state of the waterway as dated: “It is as if the world had evolved towards five- or six-way highways, while here we are left with a one-way route.” Cargo ships, he explained, have become larger, with draughts of at least 44 feet, yet the navigation channel does not exceed 34 or 36 feet at its deepest points. This “generates a lot of inefficiencies” and means Argentina loses out on some cargo business to neighbouring Brazil, he added.

In 2020, a group of Argentine private-sector entities put together a feasibility study explaining the works that would be needed to expand the operational capacity of the navigation channel. The study noted that, in the section that spanning the province of Santa Fe to the ocean, the waterway has a maximum depth ranging between 25 and 34 feet. It proposed maintaining the current 27-foot depth in the more northerly section near the confluence of the Paraguay and Paraná rivers, but increasing depths from the current 36 feet to 42 feet in the lower reaches of the Paraná, closer to the Río de la Plata and where the larger ports and greater capacity needs are located.

A disputed process

The tender involves major infrastructure works and a significant business deal. “We are talking about the largest project on the planet: more than 1,000 kilometres from Confluencia to the ocean, with an estimated turnover of between USD 10-12 billion over 30 years,” said Alfredo Sesé, technical secretary of the Transport and Infrastructure Commission at the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

The conditions required in the tender documents have sparked criticism from several large operators in the sector, who see a business supposedly tailormade for former concessionaire Jan De Nul.

Two global dredging giants, Belgium’s Dredging International (DEME) and Denmark’s Rohde Nielsen, have publicly complained, filing an administrative appeal for the tender to be suspended on the grounds that it is an “illegitimately steered” call.

In the appeal made by DEME, the company notes: “A tender document has been approved that grants unbeatable competitive advantages to the current dredger, that could discourage and even make unviable the presentation of new bids by new operators.” The government has made limited public comment on the tender, though the National Agency for Ports and Navigation has described the concession’s specifications as “very demanding” by design. “None of those who are qualified to participate will be left out,” a spokesperson told Infobae. Jan De Nul has issued no public response to these accusations.

Certain stipulations in the call for tender have also generated interest and questions among observers. The Argentine government has said that companies “controlled, directly or indirectly, by sovereign states or state bodies” cannot apply – something that would exclude China’s Shanghai Dredging Co, which had expressed interest in participating.

The exclusion occurs against a backdrop of the Milei government’s frequently tense relations with China, a relationship that, according to specialists such as Agustina Marchetti, a PhD researcher at the University of Rosario, is a demonstration of its “oscillating” foreign policy, between “ideological principles, which deplore communism, and the pragmatism of doing business”.

She added: “Milei repeated many times that he was not going to align himself with communists, although he may later give in to pragmatism and the need to negotiate with China.”

Although this clause “indirectly affects the relationship”, it does not overshadow the need to continue trading with China and strengthen the commercial relationship, Marchetti argued. “China is a relevant actor, although the relationship is marked by this duality, or double standard, that appears throughout.”

For Idígoras, the presence of such a clause should be seen as a sovereign condition for Argentina, and not one specifically targeting certain countries, as it “leaves out the US Army, a Chinese company and surely a European company as well”. He added: “It is the same as the contracts that exist in Europe or the United States, and it is still a sovereign decision.”

Idígoras says the key concern is securing “a solid and good contract”.

Juan Venesia, head of the Institute for Regional Development and director of the infrastructure programme at the National University of Rosario, described the current bidding process as being carried out quickly and without proper planning, creating a “high degree of precariousness and lack of foresight”.

He said: “Many issues that have been requested for years do not appear, such as a control body and spaces for participation from the provinces. It was done in a handful of weeks, for something that takes a long time.” Venesia claimed that this “takes away the seriousness of the tender”.

Socio-environmental impacts

In the midst of the political tensions, environmental organisations have been warning about the effects that the dredging and increased river traffic could have. The Fundación Humedales (Wetlands Foundation) has called for environmental impact studies to be conducted, as well as an evaluation of the costs of this megaproject over the last 30 years. “It is urgent to project what the impacts would be in the framework of a new concession that will increase the dredging depth of the canal,” said Nadia Boscarol, the national coordinator of the NGO’s Blue Corridor programme.

She noted that the entire river system is going through an “unprecedented” water crisis associated with its productive uses. The drought has been described as one not seen in over a century, with flow rates of the river falling due to scarce rainfall. Land use change is said to have worsened the impacts.

According to the Argentinean Association of Environmental Lawyers, there is little information on the socio-environmental impacts of works of this magnitude. “Studies show how dredging and signalling equipment have impacted the ecosystem,” said Rafael Colombo, one of the group’s founders. “This generates a lot of uncertainty when it comes to making public policy decisions.”

Cows roaming in a wetland area of the Paraná Delta. Experts say the Paraná River is going through an “unprecedented crisis”, and that the continual dredging could impact the surrounding wetland ecosystem (Image: Fundación Humedales)

For Colombo, the Paraná “is going through an unprecedented crisis” that is not being given due attention. “It seems that the only solution they can think of to guarantee navigability 365 days a year is to continue dredging,” he added.

Luis Espínola, an expert in freshwater fish ecology at the National Institute of Limnology, said that there is a lack of information on the impacts that the waterway has had to date. “It is difficult to discern the [waterway’s] effect on the ecosystem because there are no previous studies that allow us to compare. There are some studies, but they have been more literature reviews than anything else,” he noted.

Espínola is one of the authors of a 2021 report warning about potential impacts of the works on the waterway. The report states that impacts on biodiversity include erosion of riverbanks, alterations in water composition and increased mortality of fish eggs and larvae due to turbines and wave effects. It also highlights the waste generated by ships, as well as possible spills and other pollution generated by ports and large vessels.

For biologist Nadia Boscarol of Fundación Humedales, it is a “very complex” task to determine the impacts of the works. “The river is very dynamic, and it is difficult to discern which changes are natural and which are the effect of dredging,” she noted. “But in a time of extreme weather events, the water will tend to flow faster with a greater depth, generating more erosion. That’s the main danger.”

The Argentine government is due to make public the offers received for the tender on 12 February. Despite accusations of favouritism, legal actions launched against the tender, and moves to restructure the state agency in control of the waterway, the administration still aims to have the new concession holder confirmed by April.

Jorgelina Hiba is freelance environmental reporter from Argentina.

This article appears courtesy of Dialogue Earth and may be found in its original form here

The opinions expressed herein are the author's and not necessarily those of The Maritime Executive.

 

After More Than a Month, Russian Flotilla Remains Stalled off Tartus

Tartus
Sparta and Sparta II in holding patterns off Tartus, January 19 (MarineTraffic)

Published Jan 19, 2025 5:43 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Commercial maritime traffic at the Syrian port of Tartus is picking up again under the new management of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which overthrew the government of longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad in December However, Russian military cargo ships remain stalled off Tartus' harbor, where the Russian Navy has maintained a base since the days of the Cold War. 

HTS would have reasons to restrict Russian access. Russia helped the Assad government fight HTS (and other rebel groups) for 13 years, and the Russian Air Force has long been accused of indiscriminate bombing of rebel-held civilian areas. In the final days of the regime, the Russian government helped Assad to flee into exile ahead of HTS' final advance, ensuring that he would not face trial for alleged war crimes. 

HTS has so far refrained from reprisal attacks against  Russian forces, but the Russian military has pulled back to two key bases on the coast - the Hmeimem airbase and the Tartus naval base - in preparation for an apparent evacuation. Frequent cargo aircraft flights in and out of Hmeimem suggest that high-value equipment is already being extracted from that location. 

A large assortment of vehicles from the Russian operation in Syria were pulled back to the base at Tartus in the closing days of the war, but are all still stacked in storage yards at the pier. Open-source intelligence estimates suggest that laid end-to-end, this collection of mobile equipment would tail back over a kilometer of roadway; several of the trucks appear to be components of the S-400 system, a high-quality air defense radar and missile launcher system that costs an estimated $500 million to produce. The S-400 is in high demand in the Ukraine conflict. 

The Russian Navy's Mediterranean Flotilla - which called Tartus home for decades - fled during the rebel takeover, and it remains at sea after more than a month. Satellite imaging and AIS show that two well-known military cargo ships, Sparta and Sparta II, are still staged offshore despite weeks of rumored negotiations over access. 

Imaging obtained by analyst MT Anderson shows that three merchant ships have pulled in opposite the Russian section of the harbor, suggesting signs of renewed commercial activity - but the military piers on the Russian side remain devoid of traffic. The timeline for the flotilla's presence off Tartus is not indefinite, and the ships will eventually require fueling, provisioning and spare parts. Unconfirmed rumors of breakdowns have already been reported, and the flotilla's last known submarine left the Mediterranean earlier this month. 

 

Svalbard's Glaciers Have Lost an Area the Size of Manhattan Into the Sea

Svalbard
File image courtesy NASA

Published Jan 19, 2025 8:15 PM by The Conversation

 

 

[By Tian Li, Jonathan Bamber and Konrad Heidler]

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979. Svalbard, an archipelago near the northeast coast of Greenland, is at the frontline of this climate change, warming up to seven times faster than the rest of the world.

More than half of Svalbard is covered by glaciers. If they were to completely melt tomorrow, the global sea level would rise by 1.7cm. Although this won’t happen overnight, glaciers in the Arctic are highly sensitive to even slight temperature increases.

To better understand glaciers in Svalbard and beyond, we used an AI model to analyze millions of satellite images from Svalbard over the past four decades. Our research is now published in Nature Communications, and shows these glaciers are shrinking faster than ever, in line with global warming.

Specifically, we looked at glaciers that drain directly into the ocean, what are known as “marine-terminating glaciers”. Most of Svalbard’s glaciers fit this category. They act as an ecological pump in the fjords they flow into by transferring nutrient-rich seawater to the ocean surface and can even change patterns of ocean circulation.

Where these glaciers meet the sea, they mainly lose mass through iceberg calving, a process in which large chunks of ice detach from the glacier and fall into the ocean. Understanding this process is key to accurately predicting future glacier mass loss, because calving can result in faster ice flow within the glacier and ultimately into the sea.

Despite its importance, understanding the glacier calving process has been a longstanding challenge in glaciology, as this process is difficult to observe, let alone accurately model. However, we can use the past to help us understand the future.

AI replaces painstaking human labor

When mapping the glacier calving front – the boundary between ice and ocean – traditionally human researchers painstakingly look through satellite imagery and make digital records. This process is highly labor-intensive, inefficient and particularly unreproducible as different people can spot different things even in the same satellite image. Given the number of satellite images available nowadays, we may not have the human resources to map every region for every year.

A novel way to tackle this problem is by using automated methods like artificial intelligence (AI), which can quickly identify glacier patterns across large areas. This is what we did in our new study, using AI to analyze millions of satellite images of 149 marine-terminating glaciers taken between 1985 and 2023. This meant we could examine the glacier retreats at unprecedented scale and scope.

Insights from 1985 to today

We found that the vast majority (91%) of marine-terminating glaciers across Svalbard have been shrinking significantly. We discovered a loss of more than 800km² of glacier since 1985, larger than the area of New York City, and equivalent to an annual loss of 24km² a year, almost twice the size of Heathrow airport in London.

The biggest spike was detected in 2016, when the calving rates doubled in response to periods of extreme warming. That year, Svalbard also had its wettest summer and autumn since 1955, including a record 42mm of rain in a single day in October. This was accompanied by unusually warm and ice-free seas.

How ocean warming triggers glacier calving

In addition to the long-term retreat, these glaciers also retreat in the summer and advance again in winter, often by several hundred meters. This can be greater than the changes from year to year.

We found that 62% of the glaciers in Svalbard experience these seasonal cycles. While this phenomenon is well documented across Greenland, it had previously only been observed for a handful of glaciers in Svalbard, primarily through manual digitization.

We then compared these seasonal changes with seasonal variations in air and ocean temperature. We found that as the ocean warmed up in spring, the glacier retreated almost immediately. This was a nice demonstration of something scientists had long suspected: the seasonal ebbs and flows of these glaciers are caused by changes in ocean temperatures.

A global threat

Svalbard experiences frequent climate extremes due to its unique location in the Arctic yet close to the warm Atlantic water. Our findings indicate that marine-terminating glaciers are highly sensitive to climate extremes and the biggest retreat rates have occurred in recent years.

This same type of glaciers can be found across the Arctic and, in particular, around Greenland, the largest ice mass in the northern hemisphere. What happens to glaciers in Svalbard is likely to be repeated elsewhere.

If the current climate warming trend continues, these glaciers will retreat more rapidly, the sea level will rise, and millions of people in coastal areas worldwide will be endangered.

This article appears courtesy of The Conversation and may be found in its original form here

Tian Li is Senior Research Associate, Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol.

Jonathan Bamber is Professor of Glaciology and Earth Observation, University of Bristol.

Konrad Heidler is Chair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Technical University of Munich.

 

Violence on TV: What happens to children who watch?



University of Montreal




Results of new study led by Linda Pagani, Professor at the Université de Montreal’s School of Psychoeducation, long-term associated risks of early exposure to violent content in childhood and later teen antisocial behavior, more than a decade later.

“Although past evidence showing causal links between modelling and getting rewarded for violence had an immediate impact on aggressive behavior in 4-year-old children, few studies have investigated long-term risks with antisocial behavior. We studied such risks in mid-adolescence, explained Pagani, who is also a researcher at the Centre de recherche Azrieli du CHU Sainte-Justine. It was ideal to study this question with typically developing middle-class children because, as a population, they have the lowest chances of engaging in aggression and behavior harmful to others.”

Close to 2,000 children
In all, Pagani and her team looked at 963 girls and 982 boys born between the springs of 1997 and 1998 who were enrolled in the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development. Parents reported the frequency of their child’s exposure to violent television content at ages 3.5 and 4.5 years old. Boys and girls then self-reported on several aspects of antisocial behavior at age 15.

The study defines screen violence as anything “characterized by physical aggression, verbal aggression, and relational aggression […] depicting situations that intentionally attempt or cause harm to others.” Children, the study says “are attracted to fast-paced, stimulating violent content, which often features appealing characters like superheroes who commit and are rewarded for aggressive acts, thus increasing the likelihood of exposure."

The researchers then conducted analyses to examine whether exposure to violent television content at ages 3.5 and 4.5 years predicted later antisocial behavior eleven years later.

The researcher added, “We statistically took into account alternative child and family factors that could have explained our results, to be as close as possible to the truth in the relationships we were looking at.”

Boys stand out
At age 15, for boys only, preschool violent televiewing predicted increases in antisocial behavior. Being exposed to violent content in early childhood predicted later aggressive behaviors such as hitting or beating another person, with the intention of obtaining something, stealing, with or without any apparent reason.

Risks also included threats, insults, and gang fight involvement. The use of weapons is also among the behavioral outcomes predicted by exposure to childhood television violence in this study. No effects were found for girls, which was not surprising given that boys are generally more exposed to such content.

Pagani concluded, “Our study provides compelling evidence that early childhood exposure to media violence can have serious, long-lasting consequences, particularly for boys. This underscore the urgent need for public health initiatives that targets campaigns to inform parents and communities about the long-term risks and empower them to make informed choices about young children's screen content exposure.”

The entire team of students from Université de Montréal and researchers from the United States and Italy established that, "Parents and communities can play a crucial role in limiting future problems by carefully avoiding young children's exposure to violent media content."


About the study

The article, “Prospective associations between preschool exposure to violent televiewing and externalizing behavior in middle adolescent boys and girls” was published on January 20, 2025 in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.    

Linda Pagani, lead author of the study, is a professor at the Université de Montréal's School of Psychoeducation and a researcher at the Centre de recherche Azrieli du CHU Sainte-Justine and at the School Environment Research Group. Amélie Gilker-Beauchamp, Laurie-Anne Kosak and Kianoush Harandian are graduate students under her direction. Claudio Longobardi is professor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Turin, in Italy. The study’s senior author is Eric F. Dubow is distinguished research professor and director of clinical training in the Department of Psychology of Bowling Green State University, in Ohio.

This work was made possible thanks to the participation of parents, teachers and children in the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development, and under the auspices of the Institut de la statistique du Québec for data collection, storage and hosting. The overall study was funded by the Fondation Lucie et André Chagnon, the Institut de la statistique du Québec, the Ministère de l'Éducation (Québec), the Ministère de la Famille (Québec), the Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité sociale (Québec), the Institut de recherche Robert-Sauve en santé et en sécurité du travail, the CHU Sainte-Justine and the Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux du Québec (Québec).