Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Wind-related hurricane losses for homeowners in the southeastern U.S. could be nearly 76 percent higher by 2060

New research finds that homeowners in Texas are predicted to be the hardest hit -- along with those in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama

Society for Risk Analysis

Herndon, VA, May 21, 2025 -- Hurricane winds are a major contributor to storm-related losses for people living in the southeastern coastal states. As the global temperature continues to rise, scientists predict that hurricanes will get more destructive -- packing higher winds and torrential rainfall. A new study, published in the journal Risk Analysis, projects that wind losses for homeowners in the Southeastern coastal states could be 76 percent higher by the year 2060 and 102 percent higher by 2100.

University of Illinois civil engineer Eun Jeong Cha and her colleague Chi-Ying Lin used machine learning to simulate the impact of future hurricanes on wooden single-family homes with concrete masonry in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Over the last decade, these states have been hit hard by destructive storms like Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Helene (2024). Helene’s estimated total costs -- which included damages from record-breaking flooding in western Carolina -- were $78.7 billion.

“These states experience the highest hurricane activity and associated wind-related losses in the U.S.,” says Cha. “They represent a critical region for understanding how climate change may alter hurricane risk, especially given their large coastal exposure and growing population centers.”

Worst-Case Scenario

Cha’s simulation of future losses from increasing hurricane winds and rainfall utilizes projections based on the worst-case scenario of global warming from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Known as RCP8.5, this scenario represents the highest possible greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of policies to combat climate change. It estimates that the earth’s average global surface temperature will be 2.0° C higher by 2065 and 3.7° C higher by 2100 (relative to the 1986-2005 baseline). “The worst-case scenario is widely used to explore high-impact possibilities for long-term planning and resilience studies,” says Cha. “We view it as a stress-test scenario for hurricane wind risk.”

Under this scenario, the simulation projected that, in the eight southeastern coastal states:

Losses from wind and rain-ingress (when water enters a building) will be 49-76% higher by 2060 and 71-102% higher by 2100.
Hurricane wind speeds in Texas will be 14 percent higher in the 2050s compared to present-day levels.
Texas will experience the highest increase in expected losses, followed by the region of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Some inland counties, such as Charleston, South Carolina, may experience a relatively large percentage increase in projected risk.

At the county level, Cha and her colleagues found variations of hurricane risk associated with climate change, along with differences in regional preparation for hurricane wind hazards. The increasing vulnerability of the county of Charleston, South Carolina, may stem from a combination of projected increases in hurricane intensity, low historical exposure, and infrastructure that has not been stress-tested under more extreme wind and rain conditions.

“Within a state, climate change impact varies from coastal to inland counties,” says Cha. “The discrepancies we found emphasize the necessity of vast regional risk assessment for federal- and state-level resource allocation and risk mitigation planning, considering the impact of climate change.”

Insurance Models Need to Account for Heavier Rainfall

Hurricane winds account for over 40 percent of storm-related losses in the residential sector, causing $14 billion in expected annual costs to the U.S. economy, according to a 2019 report from the Congressional Budget Office. Yet most hurricane models used by insurance companies fail to consider the impact of climate change. In particular, says Cha, “rain-ingresses are often overlooked in risk assessments.” This is why her study considered damages from both stronger winds and heavier rain from future hurricanes in the southeastern coastal states.

Another study recently published in Risk Analysis focuses on the connection between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims. Yue Shi, a PhD candidate at the Norwegian School of Economics conducted a study of how extreme rainfall and climate-related events affect home insurance claims. Like Cha, she found increasing risk over time and significant geographical differences -- pointing to a need for new insurance models as the climate gets wetter.

Accurately estimating hurricane hazards and resulting losses is essential, says Cha. “Our findings contribute significantly to our understanding of climate change impacts on hurricane risks, providing valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and the insurance industry.”

About Society for Risk Analysis

The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) is a multidisciplinary, global organization dedicated to advancing the science and practice of risk analysis. Founded in 1980, SRA brings together researchers, practitioners, and policymakers from diverse fields including engineering, public health, environmental science, economics, and decision theory. The Society fosters collaboration and communication on risk assessment, management, and communication to inform decision-making and protect public well-being. SRA supports a wide range of scholarly activities, publications, and conferences.nt Learn more at www.sra.org.

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Journal

Risk Analysis

Article Title

Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach

Article Publication Date

21-May-2025

Leonardo da Vinci’s DNA: In new book, researchers announce breakthrough confirmation of Y chromosome shared by six living family descendants

Ancient Da Vinci family tomb: excavated remains undergo analysis

Book Announcement

Leonardo da Vinci DNA Project

Cover of the new book, “Genìa Da Vinci” — image:
“*Genìa Da Vinci,”* by Alessandro Vezzosi and Agnese Sabato, is published by Angelo Pontecorboli Editors with the support of the Richard Lounsbery Foundation and under the patronage of the Municipality of Vinci, as part of the “Leonardo DNA Project.”
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Credit: Angelo Pontecorboli Editors

VINCI. Italy — For over five centuries, Leonardo Da Vinci has been celebrated as a visionary artist, scientist, and inventor, known for his extraordinary talent and groundbreaking experiments. Today, an international collaboration known as the Leonardo DNA Project is closer than ever to uncovering the biological secrets of the greatest genius of the Renaissance.

In their new book “Genìa Da Vinci. Genealogy and Genetics for Leonardo’s DNA,” published by Angelo Pontecorboli Editore, experts Alessandro Vezzosi and Agnese Sabato of the Leonardo Da Vinci Heritage Association, Vinci, present findings from 30 years of genealogical research that have culminated in groundbreaking insights. Published with the support of the Municipality of Vinci, the book documents an elaborate family tree tracing back to 1331, spanning 21 generations and involving over 400 individuals. The work lays the groundwork for one of the most advanced historical-genetic investigations ever undertaken: the reconstruction of Leonardo’s genetic profile.

Through meticulous analysis of sources and archival documents — now published in the book — Vezzosi and Sabato successfully reconstructed branches of the family to which Leonardo belonged, including the identification of 15 direct male-line descendants related genealogically to both Leonardo’s father and to his half-brother, Domenico Benedetto.

This allowed David Caramelli, the Leonardo DNA Project’s coordinator for anthropological and molecular aspects, and Director of the Department of Biology at the University of Florence, along with forensic anthropologist Elena Pilli, to subject six of these descendants to DNA testing. Their analysis revealed that segments of the Y chromosome — used for individual identification — matched across these men, confirming the genetic continuity of the Da Vinci male line, at least since the 15th generation.

The authors also confirmed the existence of a Da Vinci family tomb in the Church of Santa Croce in Vinci, currently under archaeological excavation in collaboration with the University of Florence. This may be the burial site of Leonardo’s grandfather Antonio, uncle Francesco, and several half-brothers — Antonio, Pandolfo, and Giovanni.

The excavation leaders, University of Florence anthropologists Alessandro Riga and Luca Bachechi, recovered bone fragments, some of which have been radiocarbon dated. One specimen, consistent in age with Leonardo’s presumed relatives, has undergone paleogenomic analysis. Preliminary results from Caramelli and molecular anthropologist Martina Lari indicate the individual was male.

"Further detailed analyses are necessary to determine whether the DNA extracted is sufficiently preserved,” says Caramelli, who is also President of the University Museum System. “Based on the results, we can proceed with analysis of Y chromosome fragments for comparison with current descendants.”

If the Y chromosome of the living descendants is also found in the older remains in the Vinci church tombs, it would support the accuracy of paternity records, the historical reconstruction of the lineage established through death registers, and would allow for a more in-depth examination of the biological material attributed to Leonardo, as well as traces left on his original manuscripts or other works, potentially leading to the reconstruction of his DNA.

Launched in 2016 and coordinated from The Rockefeller University, New York, the Leonardo da Vinci DNA Project involves the J. Craig Venter Institute of California, the University of Florence and other institutions, with support from the Achelis and Bodman Foundation (New York), the Richard Lounsbery Foundation (Washington, D.C.), and other public and private partners.

The team’s scientific starting point was a hypothesis as simple as it is crucial: to trace the Y chromosome, which is passed unchanged from father to son.

“Our goal in reconstructing the Da Vinci family’s lineage up to the present day, while also preserving and valuing the places connected to Leonardo, is to enable scientific research on his DNA,” says Vezzosi. “Through the recovery of Leonardo’s DNA, we hope to understand the biological roots of his extraordinary visual acuity, creativity, and possibly even aspects of his health and causes of death.”

”Even a tiny fingerprint on a page could contain cells to sequence,” says Jesse H. Ausubel of The Rockefeller University and director of the project. “21st-century biology is moving the boundary between the unknowable and the unknown. Soon we may gain information about Leonardo and other historical figures once believed lost forever.”

Surprising revelations

The book’s revelations extend beyond genetics. In 21 chapters, it takes readers on a rigorous and fascinating journey through genealogy, history, and geography to rediscover the environment that shaped Leonardo.

Through analysis of ancient land registries, the authors identified seven Da Vinci family homes in Vinci’s village and castle, as well as two properties owned by Leonardo himself, inherited from his uncle Francesco and contested in a long dispute with his half-brothers.

The authors devote special focus to two key figures in Leonardo's life: His paternal grandfather Antonio — not merely a farmer but a merchant who traveled between Catalan Spain and Morocco — and Leonardo’s mother, Caterina. Through careful examination of existing research, sources, and archives, a clearer, non-romanticized picture of Caterina emerges. Increasingly plausible is her identification as a slave in the service of wealthy banker Vanni di Niccolò di ser Vanni. A series of wills and donation records from 1449 onward document the relationship between Vanni and his executor, the young notary ser Piero, Leonardo's father.

A “Unicorn Dragon” ... by Leonardo?

Among the most intriguing revelations: The authors publish for the first time a study hypothesizing that a mysterious charcoal drawing of rare expressive intensity may be attributed to Leonardo. It was discovered on the fireplace mantle of an old building in Vinci (formerly the Bracci house), now owned by the Municipality.

The fantastical creature features several striking iconographic elements, though worn by time: A spiral horn on the head, elongated snout and curved beak, hooked teeth, flaming tongue, clawed limbs, pointed ears, pronounced scales on the back and neck, and a fan-like membranous wing with fingered extensions — anticipating Leonardo’s later studies of bird and bat flight — along with a serpentine tail.

Due to these features, Vezzosi and Sabato have named the work “Unicorn Dragon.” Particularly compelling is a comparison with a detail from Windsor sheet RL 12370, dated to the 1470s.

The attribution hypothesis is currently supported by Roberta Barsanti, Director of the Leonardian Museum and Library, and by Vinci’s Mayor, Daniele Vanni. The Municipality has planned scientific analysis and restoration of the large drawing (about 80x70 cm), under the supervision of the Superintendency of Archaeology, Fine Arts and Landscape for the Metropolitan City of Florence and the provinces of Pistoia and Prato.

Leonardo: Epigenetics Pioneer?

The book suggests that Leonardo may have intuited concepts we now call “epigenetic.” In his writings on heredity, he reflects on the influence of diet, blood, and parental behavior on offspring — observations still relevant today.

“Leonardo questioned the origins of human life not only biologically: in his studies on generation, conception becomes a complex act where nature, emotion, and fate intertwine — anticipating themes now central to the genetics–epigenetics debate,” explains Agnese Sabato.

Towards a genetic portrait

The final chapter explores evocative similarities between some current descendants and Leonardo’s famed self-portrait, offered as a reflection. Nonetheless, the project’s scientific ambitions remain paramount. If enough DNA fragments can be sequenced, researchers could reveal new insights into Leonardo’s genetic heritage, physical traits, and perhaps even vulnerabilities that shaped his life and work.

“This is not just about the author of the world’s most famous painting,” concludes Ausubel. “It’s a challenge to redefine the limits of historical knowledge and cultural heritage.”

Reconstructing Leonardo’s genetic profile represents a milestone of international significance — for both science and the valourization of historical identity.

For the small Tuscan town of Vinci, which once welcomed a very special illegitimate child named Leonardo, the echo of his “genetic voice” across the centuries is now a source of deep pride and renewed wonder.

The historical research will also support an upcoming documentary and an international film production.

The book’s premiere presentation is scheduled for May 22, 2025, at the Vinci Theater.

And one thing is increasingly clear: our understanding of Leonardo Da Vinci is far from complete.

Key Points:

Leonardo da Vinci DNA Project: The first scientific project aimed at reconstructing Leonardo’s genome, through indirect and comparative biological sources

Art meets genetics: DNA found on manuscripts or drawings could confirm artwork authenticity, and techniques developed through the project could revolutionize how contested works are verified

Forensic analysis: Leonardo’s genetic profile could reveal biological traits like left-handedness, visual perception, diet, possible health predispositions, and physical appearance

21 documented generations: The reconstructed family tree has been updated from 1331 to the present, including the documentation of extinct family lines

Rediscovered heritage: Over 400 individuals analyzed, including 219 Da Vinci/Vinci (119 males and 100 females)

15 male descendants identified belonging to the direct patrilineal line, crucial for the study of the Y chromosome

Y chromosome: 6 direct male-line descendants successfully involved in comparative DNA analyses

The “Unicorn Dragon”: The hypothesis that a large drawing in Leonardo’s hometown may be attributed to him

Archaeological excavation in Vinci: First effort to identify remains in a Da Vinci family tomb documented in the Church of Santa Croce

Digital Archive “GenìaDaVinci”: A genealogical and documentary database for scholars, genealogists, and enthusiasts, based on traceability and historical verification criteria

Residences of Leonardo’s family: A new map of Da Vinci homes in Vinci village and countryside, including two of Leonardo’s own properties

Maternal mystery: A historically updated reconstruction of the hypotheses about Leonardo’s mother’s identity

* * * * * * *

Launched in 2016, the Leonardo DNA Project involves The Rockefeller University (New York), the J. Craig Venter Institute (California), the Department of Biology at the University of Florence, and other institutions, with support from the Achelis and Bodman Foundation (New York), the Richard Lounsbery Foundation (Washington, D.C.), and other public and private partners.

Credit

Leonardo DNA Project

In their new book “Genìa Da Vinci. Genealogy and Genetics for Leonardo’s DNA,” experts Alessandro Vezzosi and Agnese Sabato of the Leonardo Da Vinci Heritage Association, Vinci, present findings from 30 years of genealogical research that have culminated in groundbreaking insights.

Credit

Leonardo Da Vinci Heritage Association

Can plants hear their pollinators? #ASA188

Research suggests pollinator buzzing sounds lead plants to increase their nectar production.

Acoustical Society of America

A photo of the recording device, the model snapdragon plant, and the approaching bee. — image:
A photo of the recording device, the model snapdragon plant (A. litigiousum), and the approaching bee (R. sticticum).
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Credit: Vibrant Lab

NEW ORLEANS, May 21, 2025 – When pollinators visit flowers, they produce a variety of characteristic sounds, from wing flapping during hovering, to landing and takeoff. However, these sounds are extremely small compared to other vibrations and acoustics of insect life, causing researchers to overlook these insects’ acoustic signals often related to wing and body buzzing.

Francesca Barbero, a professor of zoology at the University of Turin, and her collaborators — an interdisciplinary mix of entomologists, sound engineers, and plant physiologists from Spain and Australia — studied these signals to develop noninvasive and efficient methods for monitoring pollinator communities and their influences on plant biology and ecology.

Barbero will present her findings and their impacts on Wednesday, May 21, at 9 a.m. CT as part of the joint 188th Meeting of the Acoustical Society of America and 25th International Congress on Acoustics, running May 18-23.

“Plant-pollinator coevolution has been studied primarily by assessing the production and perception of visual and olfactory cues, even though there is growing evidence that both insects and plants can sense and produce, or transmit, vibroacoustic signals,” said Barbero.

Barbero and her collaborators played recordings near growing snapdragons of the buzzing sounds produced by a Rhodanthidium sticticum bee (sometimes called a snail-shell bee) to monitor the flowers’ reactions. The researchers found that the sounds of bees, which are efficient snapdragon pollinators, led the snapdragons to increase their sugar and nectar volume, and even alter their gene expression that governs sugar transport and nectar production.

The flowers’ response may be a survival and coevolution strategy, especially if the plants can affect the time pollinators spend within their flowers to increase their fidelity.

“The ability to discriminate approaching pollinators based on their distinctive vibroacoustic signals could be an adaptive strategy for plants,” said Barbero. “By replying to their proper vibroacoustic signal — for instance, an efficient pollinator’s — plants could improve their reproductive success if their responses drive modifications in pollinator behavior.”

While it’s clear that buzzing sounds can trigger plants’ responses, it’s less clear whether plant acoustics can also influence insect behavior — for example, whether sounds from plants can draw in a suitable pollinator.

“If this response from insects is confirmed, sounds could be used to treat economically relevant plants and crops, and increase their pollinators’ attraction,” said Barbero.

The team is conducting ongoing analyses comparing snapdragon responses to other pollinators and nectar robbers.

“The multitude of ways plants can perceive both biotic factors — such as beneficial and harmful insects, other neighboring plants — and abiotic cues, like temperature, drought, and wind in their surroundings, is truly astonishing,” Barbero said.

The project, “Good Vibes: How do plants recognise and respond to pollinator vibroacoustic signals?” (grant RGP0003/2022), is funded by the Human Frontier Science Program and is a collaborative effort between the University of Turin, I²SysBio in Valencia, and the Centre for Audio, Acoustics and Vibration at the University of Technology Sydney.

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In the coming weeks, ASA’s Press Room will be updated with newsworthy stories and the press conference schedule at https://acoustics.org/asa-press-room/.

LAY LANGUAGE PAPERS

ASA will also share dozens of lay language papers about topics covered at the conference. Lay language papers are summaries (300-500 words) of presentations written by scientists for a general audience. They will be accompanied by photos, audio, and video. Learn more at https://acoustics.org/lay-language-papers/.

PRESS REGISTRATION

ASA will grant free registration to credentialed and professional freelance journalists. If you are a reporter and would like to attend the in-person meeting or virtual press conferences, contact AIP Media Services at media@aip.org. For urgent requests, AIP staff can also help with setting up interviews and obtaining images, sound clips, or background information.

ABOUT THE ACOUSTICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

The Acoustical Society of America is the premier international scientific society in acoustics devoted to the science and technology of sound. Its 7,000 members worldwide represent a broad spectrum of the study of acoustics. ASA publications include The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America (the world’s leading journal on acoustics), JASA Express Letters, Proceedings of Meetings on Acoustics, Acoustics Today magazine, books, and standards on acoustics. The society also holds two major scientific meetings each year. See https://acousticalsociety.org/.

ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION FOR ACOUSTICS

The purpose of the International Commission for Acoustics (ICA) is to promote international development and collaboration in all fields of acoustics including research, development, education, and standardization. ICA’s mission is to be the reference point for the acoustic community, becoming more inclusive and proactive in our global outreach, increasing coordination and support for the growing international interest and activity in acoustics. Learn more at https://www.icacommission.org/.

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DGIST develops high-performance piezoelectric fiber sensor for real-time landslide detection

DGIST (Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology)

□ DGIST (President Lee Kunwoo) has announced that a research team led by Dr. Lim Sang-kyu in the Department of Energy and Environmental Technology has developed a smart fiber sensor that can detect natural disasters such as landslides in real time. The new fiber is based on piezoelectric technology, which converts pressure into electricity. Its three-dimensional (3D) structure dramatically improves performance, facilitating the implementation of a self-powered sensor system that can operate without an external power source.

□ Piezoelectric fibers generate electricity when pressed or bent. These materials are used in wearable devices, smart fiber sensors, and energy-harvesting devices. However, conventional fiber structures have multiple air layers that have an unknown effect on performance. Hence, the structure limits power output.

□ The research team developed a new nanomaterial, tin titanate nanorods (SnTiO₃NR), which they fabricated into piezoelectric fibers using Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), a polymer. The fiber has an eight-pronged cross-section that resembles flower petals. It is woven, using a special weaving technique, into a 3D double-raschel structure with two overlapping layers. Within the structure, an air layer is formed between the fibers that helps absorb shock, transmit pressure, and amplify signals.

□ According to the research results, the fiber sensor can generate a voltage of up to 92.8 V and a current of 4.13 mA when a pressure of 1 Nm-2 is applied to a 5 cm × 5 cm area––enough to light 22 LEDs without an external power source. That power is also sufficient to run everyday sensor systems or small electronic devices. This demonstrates that a simple change in fiber structure can substantially improve performance. Notably, the power output is more than double that of conventional planar structures, demonstrating the exciting potential of high-performance smart fibers.

□ The research team also used the fiber to implement a Bluetooth-based real-time landslide detection system that can operate without an external power source. The system can detect external forces and transmit data wirelessly. It can therefore be used in various fields in a range of applications from detecting signs of disasters, such as landslides caused by heavy rain, to tracking health and exercise records.

□ Dr. Lim Sang-kyu commented as follows: “We have identified structural and non-structural factors that can enhance the performance of piezoelectric fibers. Our research can contribute to the development of smart sensing technologies, which can be used to preemptively respond to various disasters such as landslides caused by heavy rain.”

□ The research was supported by DGIST’s institution-specific research program. The research was published in the April 21, 2025 online edition of Advanced Functional Materials, an international authoritative journal in the field of materials science.