What does Nigeria’s new president stand for?


Garhe Osiebe
May 4th, 2023

Despite a long career in politics, many in Nigeria are uncertain about the political intentions of the country’s president-elect. Garhe Osiebe examines why.

Following his victory in Nigeria’s presidential election in February 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised to be sworn in as president of Africa’s most populous nation on 29 May. It is important therefore to have a sense of the politics behind the figure. This is even more pressing after the blind side Nigerians received when the outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari assumed power in 2015. The outcome was a cabinet that took over six months to be inaugurated, and to this day, Nigerians are unsure about the political philosophy of their outgoing president.

The current fragile situation of Nigeria and the polarising nature of its recent election makes knowing more about the man slated to become president even more important.

The career

Tinubu was elected senator representing Lagos West in 1992. He last held elected public office as governor of Lagos state between 1999 and 2007. His subsequent position as national leader of Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was largely ceremonial, and in the intervening years, people have lost track of what he stands for.

During his time in Lagos, Tinubu tried to lay claim to the political ideology of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, a Nigerian statesman who played a key role in Nigeria’s independence movement between 1957 and 1960. Awolowo founded the Yoruba nationalist group Egbe Omo Oduduwa, and his political philosophy came to be known as Awoism – a form of social democracy.

A good number of Tinubu’s policies while he was governor of Lagos State were consistent with his Awoist vision. For example, the ‘Jigi Bola’ program offered treatment and free eyeglasses to patients with cataracts and other eye defects. He also initiated the payment of the senior secondary school examination fees for students in Lagos State schools to the West African Examination Council, an examination board in English-speaking West African countries. He also established scholarship schemes at the higher education level. These are a few of the policies by Tinubu as governor of Lagos that are said to have touched the lives of the common man. Despite this, Tinubu remains a polarising figure.

The principles

Some commentators consider labelling Tinubu as an Awoist or social democrat as nonsense. They instead see him as a neo-liberal in the same vein as most politicians in Nigeria. This predominant group of politicians believes the market and the private sector are the solution to all ills in government, economy, and the larger society. Tinubu is also shrouded in much controversy regarding his age, origins, health and constitutional fit for the office of president of Nigeria. A newspaper report from 1998 states that he was 52, but in 2023 Tinubu officially marked his 71st birthday, leaving a six-year gap. Demands for a full health disclosure have been ignored, and investigative journalist David Hundeyin has released files about a background in drug trafficking while Tinubu lived in the US. These stories, together with his possession of Guinean citizenship, have been widely shared on social media.

Tinubu’s much touted symbol is of ‘broken shackles’ – intended as liberation from the woes of colonialism and neo-colonialism – which he wears on his head at public events. Yet, this symbolism now appears lost on the public. His time out of office and establishing a reputation as a wealthy godfather and kingmaker of Nigerian politics has disconnected him from the public. Tinubu’s campaign slogans of “Yoruba lo kan” [It is the turn of the Yorubas] and “Emi lo kan” [It is my turn] almost completely replaced whatever ideological leanings he might have had. The chances of Mr Tinubu running a government to which most of the citizenry would be enthusiastic seem low due to the tribal nature of these slogans.

Tinubu got elected with almost 9 million votes. However, his opponents together amassed over 14 million votes. Mr Tinubu’s mandate is thus not an overly popular one. His presidential style, people-centred programs and populist policies could earn his mandate much needed popularity and legitimacy. During his spell as governor of Lagos state, the president-elect displayed a penchant for selecting very capable hands to build an efficient team. It will be vital he can repeat this trick now he oversees the national government.

That some consider Tinubu to be neoliberal, while others see him through the prism of Awo-ism speaks to the divisions within Nigerian politics and the fragile political environment he inherits. Whatever governing philosophy emerges during his tenure, time will tell whether he can galvanise the Nigerian economy out of its present doldrums and unite the country.

About the author

Garhe Osiebe is with the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Hargeisa, Republic of Somaliland. He has researched and written on elections in Africa for over a decade with several publications in journals on the subject.