World Bank Report: Central Asia Faces Rising Risks From Extreme Heat

 July 19, 2025

By TCA

By Sadokat Jalolova

(TCA) — Cities across Central Asia are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, posing significant risks to public health, economic productivity, and infrastructure, according to a new report by the World Bank. The study, which covers 70 urban areas in Europe and Central Asia, including Astana, Bishkek, Ashgabat, Tashkent, and several smaller cities in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, highlights the urgent need for heat adaptation strategies.

Rising Mortality and Economic Losses

The report finds that heat-related mortality is already a serious concern. In Ashgabat, an estimated 25-28 people per 100,000 die annually due to extreme heat. In Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent, the toll is slightly lower, at approximately 19-21 deaths per 100,000. Without intervention, annual heat-related deaths in cities like Astana and Tashkent could rise dramatically, reaching between 10,000 and 23,000 by 2090.

Economic impacts are also mounting. In 2023, higher temperatures resulted in the loss of over 87,000 full-time jobs across the region. Uzbekistan alone saw more than 22,000 job losses, while nearly 18,000 were reported in Azerbaijan. By 2050, heat-related economic losses could exceed 2% of GDP in some urban centers, such as Ashgabat.

Infrastructure Under Strain

Rising temperatures are damaging infrastructure across Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, extreme heat causes deterioration to nearly 200 kilometers of road annually, driving up repair costs and disrupting transportation. Kazakhstan is facing similar challenges: recent heatwaves have warped asphalt and concrete surfaces in the southern and northeastern regions of the country.

Adaptation Measures and Challenges

Despite these threats, the report outlines viable solutions. Urban greening, such as planting trees and creating shaded areas, can help cool city streets. Retrofitting buildings to improve thermal insulation without increasing energy use, establishing early warning systems, and creating cooling centers are also recommended.

Urban planning strategies should incorporate climate resilience by using heat-tolerant materials and factoring climate risks into infrastructure design. Investment in parks and green spaces, alongside the use of heat vulnerability maps, can guide targeted interventions.

However, the report warns that a lack of funding may hinder progress. Without innovative financing mechanisms, many adaptation plans could be stalled despite their potential to mitigate long-term risks.

The World Bank concludes that while the impacts of rising temperatures are already being felt across Central Asia, timely action can prevent far more serious consequences. Policymakers are urged to prioritize heat adaptation to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure in an increasingly warming world.

• About the author: Sadokat Jalolova has worked as a reporter for some time in local newspapers and websites in Uzbekistan, and has enriched her knowledge in the field of journalism through courses at the University of Michigan, Johns Hopkins University, and the University of Amsterdam on the Coursera platform.

TCA

TCA is The Times of Central Asia. Founded in Bishkek in 1999 by Giorgio Fiacconi, who served as the First Honorary Consul of Italy to Kyrgyzstan for fifteen years, The Times of Central Asia was the first English language regional publication on the region. Building upon its extensive archive of stories, today the Times of Central Asia continues to cover politics, economics, culture, social issues, justice and foreign affairs across Eurasia.