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Why the Congo Basin is vital in the fight against climate breakdown

18.11.23

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Published November 18 2023
By Alex Hess

TBIJ co-publishes its stories with major media outlets around the world so they reach as many people as possible.Find out how to use our work



This investigation was produced with support from the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigations Network



Fossil fuel extraction is destroying the planet. As the climate crisis accelerates, even the world’s major oil and gas companies now openly accept the need to transition to sustainable sources of energy for the sake of our future.

Two years ago, the International Energy Agency declared that the key aim set out in the Paris Agreement – to limit global heating to 1.5C – could only be achieved by halting all investment in new oil and gas infrastructure worldwide.

Yet money continues to be poured into fossil fuels – and these investments have been rising in Africa, where an area larger than France and Italy combined has been licensed for oil and gas exploration since 2017. Nor does this look set to slow down: oil and gas companies are currently searching for new hydrocarbon reserves in 45 African countries.


One of these is the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which last May announced an auction for the rights to explore for oil and gas within its borders, despite protests from national and international non-governmental organisations. The government says the country may have up to 16bn barrels of oil, and that some of those reserves lie under the rainforest. Experts say the project is a “carbon bomb” that threatens one of the last and most critical frontiers in the battle against climate breakdown: the Congo Basin rainforest.
What’s the Congo Basin?

The Congo Basin is the largest expanse of intact rainforest outside of the Amazon. Years of rampant deforestation in the Amazon, however, means more emissions are released due to fires and agriculture than are captured by the trees. This means the Congo Basin is now the only tropical rainforest in the world with enough trees still standing to absorb substantially more CO2 than it emits.

It stretches across six countries but the majority of it is in the DRC, where it is home to 15.2 million people. Last July, the DRC government announced that huge parts of this land would be parcelled up, with the rights auctioned off for private companies to explore for oil – and TBIJ has revealed the process to be plagued with apparent preferential treatment and backroom deals.

Within the Congo Basin rainforest is also the world’s largest tropical peatland complex. Again, most of this is in the DRC.

So what are the peatlands?

Congo’s peatlands are basically swampy rainforests. The Cuvette Centrale area, where they’re located, is home to more than 11 million people, many of whom belong to nomadic and semi-nomadic Indigenous communities who rely on the peatlands for their livelihoods. They are also some of the world’s richest forests for wildlife, including major populations of elephants, bonobos, monkeys and crocodiles.

But peatlands are also vital for the climate, because they store huge amounts of carbon. Altogether, the Congo Basin’s peatlands store the equivalent of three years’ global emissions from fossil fuels. Disturbing the land could begin the release of the vast amount of carbon stored underneath, flipping the peatlands from a hugely valuable absorber of CO2 to a catastrophic emitter.


Some 75 million people from more than 150 ethnic groups live in the Congo Basin’s forestsJunior D Kannah/Greenpeace

What does this have to do with fossil fuels?

Parts of the forest also fall on the land being auctioned off. Thirteen blocks overlap with protected areas and, most importantly, three overlap with Congo’s peatlands.


So far the blocks have been auctioned off for oil exploration – the stage before drilling.
So they might not end up drilling for oil?

No – although that might come later. But even exploring for oil opens up the forest and peatlands to enormous destruction.
The locations of the 30 oil and gas blocks being auctioned off by the DRC
The Observer; Laura Kurtzberg

Read about our investigations in the DRC
‘We won’t compromise’: Villagers rail against DRC’s fossil fuel auctions
Backroom deals, mystery companies and a ‘killer lake’: inside DRC’s gas and oil auction


The current lack of infrastructure means the Congo Basin has not suffered the sort of rampant deforestation we see in the Amazon. But the construction of roads, pipes, buildings and everything else needed to explore for oil would open up the land to commercial hunters, poachers and illegal loggers. It could also lead to the disturbance of the peatland ecosystem. And that’s all before the companies discover whether there are oil deposits to drill into.
Would this affect the carbon under the ground?

Yes. The three areas of peatland being auctioned off store a total of 1.67bn tonnes of carbon, which if disturbed could release more than the US’s annual emissions.

This means that, even before factoring in the usual concerns associated with oil drilling – the emissions caused by both the drilling process itself and then the burning of the oil that is found – simply disturbing this land could prove catastrophic for the planet.

And the peatlands are only a small part of the auction. Three blocks overlap with peatlands but there are 30 oil and gas blocks in total, 13 of which encroach on protected areas.

Who will benefit from extracting oil?

With climate experts, local communities and organisations such as Greenpeace having voiced fierce opposition to the auction, the government has so far struggled to attract bidders. A number of major companies, such as TotalEnergies, have said they will not take part.

But the auction is not without domestic support. There are those who argue that the DRC has a right to use the proceeds from its natural resources, and that doing so could drive development in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Who is most at risk from this auction?

Most immediately, the 75 million people from more than 150 ethnic groups who live in the Congo Basin’s forests and whose futures depend on the health of their surroundings. Many fear oil exploration will force them from their land and pollute the rivers and forests they rely on for survival.

But in the long term, all of us are at risk. If the exploitation of this land goes ahead, the implications for the climate are huge: the Congo Basin is a vital resource in attempting to balance out the planet-heating CO2 we continue to emit.


Reporter: Alex Hess
Environment editor: Robert Soutar
Impact producer: Grace Murray
Deputy editor: Chrissie Giles
Editor: Franz Wild
Fact checker: Lucy Nash

This reporting is funded by the Sunrise Project. None of our funders have any influence over our editorial decisions or output. This story was produced with the support of the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigations Network.


‘We won’t compromise’: Villagers rail against DRC’s fossil fuel auctions


Published November 18 2023
By Josephine Moulds
Find out how to use the Bureau’s work

This investigation was produced with support from the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigations Network


Jean Bolengu Ekunja drove his spear into the ground. “We won’t compromise,” he told the crowd gathered in Baringa, a village deep in the Congo Basin rainforest. “If oil activity is what they are going to do here, they will have to kill me first, as the chief. Then they will have to slaughter all the population!”

The Democratic Republic of Congo is auctioning rights to explore for oil and gas in large swathes of rainforest and other protected areas across the country. Baringa is one of scores of communities affected. The process has sparked fierce yet familiar debate about environment and development and set the stage for a legal fight over community rights, with many local people opposing extraction.

DRC’s hydrocarbons minister, Didier Budimbu, has said the country needs to extract its oil and gas “so that our children can eat and we can develop our economy”. It is the latest attempt to exploit fossil fuel resources in one of the world’s poorest countries, where almost two-thirds of the population survive on less than $2.15 a day, the international poverty line.

Life in Baringa relies on the Maringa river
Junior D Kannah/Greenpeace

Many previous attempts to exploit DRC’s fossil fuel reserves have ended in failure, beset with scandal and scuppered by officials cancelling contracts.

This time around, the DRC has promised the auction will be transparent, impartial and competitive. But TBIJ revealed a process plagued with apparent preferential treatment and backroom deals.

Community opposition

Some of the oil blocks up for auction lie within the Congo Basin rainforest, which is peppered with small farming and fishing communities. DRC law requires the government to get the opinion of local people before any project or activity that may have an impact on the environment. However, the people here say they have not been asked about the auction.

‘We owe our survival to the forest. We refuse oil exploitation’

A few hours upstream from Baringa and several kilometres further into the forest is Lisoko, a farming community. With no phone network or radio coverage, the community has little access to news about the oil block auction. Nadine Bolumbu, the chief of this and six neighbouring villages, said no one apart from Greenpeace had told them about the auction. She said the villagers’ position was clear: “We owe our survival to the forest. We refuse oil exploitation in our group.” Budimbu and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons declined to comment.

The people in Lisoko gather cassava leaves and fat yellow caterpillars from the swampy forest surrounding the village, where African teak trees loom out of the water, some reaching up to 50 metres high. This tangle of trees serves as a hunting ground for wild boar, antelopes and other bushmeat, and villagers catch fish in its pools and streams. Bamboo and thick branches provide structures for their one-storey homes, many built from earth packed and cooked into bricks.
Greenpeace workers and journalists meet with villagers in Baringa to discuss the imminent threat of industrial oil exploitation
Junior D Kannah/Greenpeace


The lack of infrastructure raises questions over how realistic oil exploration is. After a flight from Kinshasa, Lisoko is a two-day trip by motorboat up the River Congo and its tributaries before heading into the forest. There are few roads here, just narrow tracks for motorbikes to whip along, their drivers ducking to avoid low branches and fallen trees. Goods are transported via the river, from live goats on makeshift rafts, to barges piled high with timber.

Exporting oil from this area would involve building hundreds of miles of pipeline through dense rainforest. Similar licences acquired from the government in the past have remained unused for years due to the huge investment they require.

Vincent Rouget, a director at the consultancy Control Risks, said the current government may have intended to raise funds from the auction before the upcoming election, slated for December. Instead it has become an election issue, with the leading opposition candidate Moïse Katumbi stating that he would scrap plans to explore for oil in the Congo Basin if he wins.
The worst place in the world to drill for oil

That opposition stretches beyond the DRC. Last year, the US climate envoy John Kerry asked the government to withdraw some of the oil blocks to protect the tropical rainforest – the last in the world with enough trees to absorb more carbon than it emits. International and Congolese environmental organisations have called for the government to scrap the auction altogether.
Jean Bolengu Ekunja addresses villagers in Baringa, DRC
Junior D Kannah/Greenpeace

At least 13 of the blocks overlap with protected areas, according to Greenpeace Africa. That includes the world’s largest tropical peatlands, near Lisoko, which fan out from tributaries of the River Congo in the north-west. It has been described by experts as the worst place in the world to drill for oil, because peatlands lock-in partially decayed plant matter that, if disturbed, could release vast amounts of carbon, dramatically adding to global heating.

‘After this exploitation, what will be left here? They’ll abandon the land with the craters, there will be water pollution, all the animals will flee’


It is also an area rich in wildlife such as bonobos, crocodiles and forest elephants. Amid the trilling of crickets, kingfishers and hornbills, the government's promise to ensure that any oil exploration is done responsibly rings hollow. Even the highly diplomatic chief of the nearby bonobo reserve, who refused to answer questions on the auction, conceded: “You cannot do oil exploration without consequences.”

Sitting under a palm-roofed shelter out of the punishing midday sun, Albert Ifaso Bonguli, one of Lisoko’s village elders, asked: “After this exploitation, what will be left here? They’ll abandon the land with the craters, there will be water pollution, all the animals will flee.” He was unconvinced that oil would bring jobs to these communities, which desperately need funds to send their children to school and pay for medical care.

Few people here end up in secondary education, where final exams cost more than $70 – a huge sum for people whose main source of income is from the surplus bushmeat, vegetables and fish they can sell in local markets. “The villagers don't know anything about this kind of work,” Ifaso said. “The income from the oil will not benefit the Congo, only the investors who are financing the exploitation.”

The people here have already seen the arrival of the logging business, but there is little evidence that it has alleviated poverty. Joe Eisen, executive director of Rainforest Foundation UK (RFUK), said: “The promised trickle-down benefits of industries, such as commercial logging, in the form of secure employment, tax revenues, infrastructure and development rarely materialise in rural areas, with the benefits mostly captured by corrupt officials and political elites.”

RFUK has been helping communities secure legal rights to remain in the forests as their protectors. If done in the right way, Eisen said, “this currently offers the best and most equitable way to protect forests in a way that supports local development in rural areas”.

Farmers from Baringa in the forest
Junior D Kannah/Greenpeace

Research has shown this often results in better conservation of the forest and costs less than creating dedicated protected areas. Back in Lisoko, Bolumbu says: “We protect our forests ourselves. If you want to help us, bring humanitarian aid by promoting jobs for young people, but do not touch the forest.”
Protecting Indigenous rights

Further into the forest, but still inside the boundaries of blocks parcelled up for investment, is the Balumbe community – an Indigenous people who have long been discriminated against. They have an even stronger claim against the government’s drive to sell off rights to explore for oil.

Last year, under pressure from campaigners, Felix Tshisekedi’s government introduced a new law to tackle discrimination and abuses against Indigenous people such as the Balumbe. This requires the government to obtain the free, prior and informed consent for activities that could displace them from their land – a weightier obligation than the requirement to consult the population, which echoes international standards. Thomas Fessy of Human Rights Watch said: “Now that it’s been adopted, let’s make sure that it is fully implemented and that it brings change into the lives of Indigenous communities.” He said the auction of the oil blocks could be an important test case.

The law came into force in February and no attempt has yet been made to gain the Indigenous communities’ consent for the oil auction. Observers say that could significantly disrupt the auction.

Augustin Mpoyi, a leading environmental lawyer in DRC, said if Indigenous people opposed oil exploitation, the government may choose to seize the land. “The state may feel that the revenues that oil can generate are significant and could be put to public use, and it may halt the objection. But it's going to take time. It’s going to delay oil exploitation even more.”

The government has so far struggled to attract bidders for the oil blocks and some major companies, such as TotalEnergies, have said they will not take part. Finding funding and insurance for projects to extract oil in the rainforest may also prove difficult. Many financial institutions have committed to ensuring that any projects they support have the free, prior and informed consent of affected communities. According to Greenpeace, Generali, Hannover Re, Talanx and Zurich have ruled out providing cover for oil and gas blocks in the DRC. Hannover Re said this was due to “expectations and exclusions” relating to environment, social and governance issues.

The lack of consent from the communities that TBIJ visited was evident. They may not have been consulted, but many have heard rumours of the auction. Seeing a group of outsiders speeding through the village on motorbikes and assuming they were there to take the oil, local people shouted “Thieves!”, “We refuse!” and “Get out of here!”

Back in Baringa, Ekunja said his village has not been consulted on the auctions. But they had discussed them – and their answer was clear. “Non! N-O-N!” he shouted, drawing cheers from the crowd.

Header picture: Children wash laundry in the Maringa river. Credit: Junior D Kannah/Greenpeace

Reporter: Josephine Moulds
Environment editor: Robert Soutar
Impact producer: Grace Murray
Deputy editor: Chrissie Giles
Editor: Franz Wild
Production editor: Alex Hess
Fact checker: Grace Murray

This reporting is funded by the Sunrise Project. None of our funders have any influence over our editorial decisions or output. This story was produced with the support of the Pulitzer Center’s Rainforest Investigations Network.
YEMEN



Unprecedented humanitarian crisis amidst imperialist intervention and counter-revolutionary revenge in Yemen

SATURDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2023, BY FRANK PROUHET


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In 2011, in the wake of the Arab Spring, a gigantic popular uprising swept through Yemen. In a country dominated by corruption, plagued by divisions between north and south and the overwhelming role of old military-tribal hierarchies, there was hope. Young people occupied the squares for months in Sana’a, in Taez, in Aden. Among its main spokespersons there was even a woman, Tawakkol Karman, and a demand, a civil state, which broke with the old military-religious and tribal hierarchies. The revolution unified the country, in the hope of putting an end to a corrupt regime, embodied by President Saleh’s clan, which sold the country’s gas wealth for a pittance to multinationals, such as France’s Total, and which used and manipulated the growing danger of al-Qaeda in Yemen to make itself indispensable in the eyes of international donors, especially the US.


The revolution was strong enough to oust President Saleh from power. But there was no question for US and also French imperialism, or the neighbouring Saudi monarchy, or the old Yemeni military-tribal reactionary forces, of letting the revolution rule. The Bab el Mandeb strait, through which a third of the world’s oil passes, could not be under the control of a revolutionary government. Saudi Arabia, where even the country’s name is privatized by a single clan, could not accept a revolution that ousted the tyrant. The wealth was to go back to the old clan elites marginalized by the Saleh clan.

This reactionary coalition first blocked the birth of a new democratic constitution, then imposed a government of continuity with the old regime by placing Hadi, the former prime minister of the ousted president, at the head of a transitional government. It united, then tore apart to conquer power, plunging the country into a never-ending military and humanitarian crisis. A crisis multiplied tenfold by the adventurous military intervention Decisive Storm, launched in 2015 by Mohamed bin Salman (MBS), the new strongman of Saudi Arabia, with the support of his ally and mentor Mohamed bin Zayed, of the United Arab Emirates, under the aegis of the American, and more discreetly French, umbrella. The aggression of the wealthy Saudi kingdom against the poorest country in the Arab world was supposed to solve in a few months the problem of the Houthis, supported by Iran, who had taken control of the capital Sanaa, in alliance with the deposed former president Saleh, in a spectacular reversal of alliance. Eight years later, Yemen is more divided than ever, and the war is still there, culminating in today’s stalemate.

“DECISIVE STORM,” A REACTIONARY ADVENTURE

MBS’s Yemeni adventure can be explained as much by the desire of the new Saudi strongman to consolidate his young regime within the kingdom as by the muted confrontation that has pitted the Sauds against the Islamic Republic of Iran since the fall of the Shah. A confrontation punctuated by the Iran-Iraq war, where the Saudi kingdom financed the Iraqi aggression, or by the clashes between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi police in Mecca in 1987. These tensions have only been heightened by the rise of Iran’s nuclear program. Along with Israel, Saudi Arabia denounced the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal, which left a civilian nuclear component and reintroduced Iranian oil to the market at a time when its price was collapsing. Not to mention the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia, the majority in the Al-Hassa region, Saudi Arabia’s main oil region, seen as a perpetual internal threat. For the Sunni kingdom, protector of the holy sites, the Arab Spring was nothing more than an Iranian desire to constitute, against the Sunnis, a Shiite arc from Bahrain to Yemen via Syria and Iraq.

In Yemen in 2014, riding the wave of popular discontent, the Houthis militarily drove Hadi’s transitional government out of the capital Sanaa, which on the one hand caused the price of gas to explode for Yemenis, but on the other hand sold it off repeatedly to Total. The Houthis are descended from a particular branch of Shi’ism, the Zaydis, who dominated Yemen for centuries and then were marginalized by the Republic and then reunification. More than a protagonist in a religious conflict – Shiites versus Sunnis – the Houthis represent a minority that loudly criticizes President Saleh’s alignment with US imperialism, under the pretext of fighting terrorism after 9/11. A very convenient adversary, an ally of Iran, despised by US imperialism, against whom Saleh sends bombs, but also ultra-Orthodox Sunni Koranic schools, such as Dar al-Hadith, in the heart of Shiite territory, to reactivate a religious conflict that was not very real at the beginning. Ironically, Saleh, like many members of the Yemeni elite, is from the Zaydi minority! What wouldn’t he do to keep power for 33 years and to get American subsidies? He would go so far as to ally himself with yesterday’s adversaries! And it is an unlikely and unstable alliance between the Houthis and Saleh, just ousted from power, that is expelling the new transitional Hadi government from Sana’a. The Hadi government, which emerged from the fragile compromise between the forces that wanted to bring the revolution into line and divide the country, had to take refuge in Aden, in the south. It owes its salvation only to the military and financial support of the reactionary international coalition of the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

OPPOSING COALITIONS FRAGMENT

In Sana’a, the Houthis and ousted former president Saleh, for a brief time allies, were once again tearing each other apart. Saleh was assassinated. The Houthis were the sole masters of the game at the end of 2017. In the south, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, allies and financial and military backers of a heterogeneous anti-Houthi coalition, are seeing their respective protégés confront each other with heavy weapons. This is because Saudi Arabia is supporting Hadi’s militias who have taken refuge in Aden at arm’s length. They took with them Al-Islah, the military-tribal party linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. The same militias that waged the war against the southerners in the 1994 secession attempt, which left thousands dead in the southern ranks and swept away hopes for autonomy. The United Arab Emirates, an ally of Saudi Arabia, is mainly financing the militias of the southern movement, which is certainly opposed to the Houthis, but has created a Southern Transitional Council against the proteges of the Saudis who took refuge in Aden, to confront militarily the Hadi government and its supporters in Al-Islah.

This improbable cohabitation has indeed awakened the old north-south divides. The north emerged from the Ottoman occupation and the struggle against the monarchy, with the Yemeni Arab Republic. The south emerged from the occupation by British imperialism of the port of Aden and its hinterland, to secure its empire and the route to India. It also stems from the abortive experience of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, which followed the forced withdrawal of the British. This very advanced experiment, with free education and healthcare, formal equality between men and women and anti-imperialist positions, was the target of many attacks that limited its development, fostered internal fractures and pushed it into the arms of the USSR. It ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and ended in 1990 with a reunification entirely dominated by the elites of the northern Yemeni Arab Republic.

But the fractured anti-Houthi front in the south can also be seen against a backdrop of growing economic competition between Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. MBS wants a Saudi kingdom that is no longer just a petro-monarchy. He wants to initiate a grandiose and probably very unrealistic transition, to develop services, tourism, foreign private investment, with his Vision 2030 project. He is pressuring multinationals to repatriate their headquarters to Riyadh, which inevitably puts it in competition with Dubai, the Emirates’ largest city. In 2021, Riyadh issued an ultimatum to large foreign groups. No more public contracts after 2024 if you don’t locate your regional headquarters in the kingdom, which hosts only 5% of international headquarters compared to 76% for the Emirates. It must be said that the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a court journalist who had become a critic of the Saudi government, the kidnapping of hundreds of princes locked up for many months in the Hilton Riyadh and robbed of their money, the forced resignation of Saad Hariri, Lebanese prime minister, a Sunni and ally of the West, after his kidnapping by MBS in Riyadh, have chilled more than one foreign investor and angered the United States.

The picture of Yemen’s fracturing would be incomplete if we did not add al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP, and the Yemeni branch of Islamic State, which are taking advantage of the clashes to gain territory, notably the port of Mukalla and the Hadramaut Valley. Not to mention the U.S. drones that regularly strike markets and tribal leaders. An infinite politico-military fragmentation, the main victim of which is the Yemeni people.

BOTH SIDES BOGGED DOWN

After eight years of war, Saudi Arabia has failed to defeat the Iranian-backed Houthis, who control the northern two-thirds of the territory. Its alliance is fractured, Yemen balkanized. The Yemeni government-in-exile that it makes and unmakes, has power only over the rooms of the luxury hotels it occupies in Riyadh. A stalemate that is costing the kingdom dearly. Worse, Saudi Arabia and its oil terminals have been repeatedly targeted by Iranian-designed Houthi drones, temporarily reducing its capacity to export oil, an essential asset that accounts for 90% of the state’s revenues. Mohammed bin Salman will remember that the United States did not move a finger when Iranian drones hit his country.

The war is unwinnable for Saudi Arabia, which wants to refocus on its economic agenda, whose bright horizon is still receding with the covid crisis, and whose actuality is less and less dictated by its exclusive relationship with the United States, which did not support it, and which must resume talks with Iran to get out of this quagmire. Similarly, the Houthis, firmly established in the north, cannot hope to conquer all of Yemen’s territory. Their deadly failure, with the deaths of tens of thousands of fighters, including many child soldiers, in an attempt to take control of the oil-rich region of Marib, sounded the death knell for their hopes.

YEMEN IS HUNGRY, YEMEN IS THIRSTY!

The war is estimated to have claimed more than 100,000 civilian lives. Nearly four million people have fled the fighting and bombing. But hunger, malnutrition and thirst kill even more surely than the bombing of schools, hospitals, markets and weddings by the Saudi coalition. The UN speaks of 200,000 indirect civilian casualties. Twenty-four million people, 80 per cent of the population, need emergency assistance. This is a figure never reached by any country in the world. More than half of the population does not have enough to eat. 7.4 million people are malnourished, including 2 million children, according to Oxfam. The health system is bled dry, the few functioning health facilities, especially those of NGOs, are bombed by Saudi planes. Prices are skyrocketing while incomes are collapsing. To financially stifle the Houthis, who levy customs duties and hold humanitarian organisations to ransom, Saudi Arabia is blocking the delivery of humanitarian aid, which is already vastly undersized in relation to the immense needs. The humanitarian crisis is worsening with the Saudi blockade of the port of Hodeidah and the airport of Sana’a. The country is ranked 191st in the UN Development Index. This is the price paid for the intervention of imperialism and the revenge of the old military-tribal hierarchies against the revolution.

We remember French participation in the dirty war in Yemen. Despite the French government’s denials, the leak of a memo from the Directorate of Military Intelligence confirmed the accusations made by French NGOs. In the midst of the Khashoggi affair, it revealed that 48 Caesar cannons manufactured by Nexter, 100% owned by the French state, with a range of 42 km, were deployed by Saudi Arabia on its border with Yemen. The delivery was completed in 2018, well after the conflict began. A new export contract was even signed in December 2018, in the greatest secrecy, for Titus armored vehicles and 105LG towed guns. After the United States, France is the main supplier of the dirty war that is martyring and starving Yemen.

Yemen is hungry, but Yemen is also thirsty! In one of the driest inhabited regions in the world, global warming is further reducing the level of precipitation, transforming it into rare torrential rainfall episodes that tear up arable land, all the more easily since terraced crops are no longer maintained because of the war. But the collapse of the water system did not date from the war. It has been exacerbated by the joint effects of the aid policies of neoliberal international institutions and the former Yemeni central government. Both have favoured, by means of subsidies and by turning a blind eye, the anarchic multiplication of water pumping from deep boreholes, which only the large landowners can afford. This is to produce quat, the euphoric water-hungry plant, which yields a lot of money but pumps 40% of Yemen’s agricultural water and to produce export crops, such as bananas or mangoes, for multinationals. These boreholes deplete aquifers, divert water from subsistence village crops, and multiply conflicts over water. The surface wells of small farmers are drying up. This further increases their dependence on tribal chiefs and their tankers that bring deteriorating drinking water to the countryside and the city. In 2017, Yemen recorded the world’s worst known cholera outbreak, with more than one million cases, while its health system collapsed. This water management model is unsustainable in the short term. It pumps more than water resources can replenish, while renewable water is only 72 m3 per inhabitant per year, already far from the 500 m3 defined as a scarcity threshold.

SAUDIS SEEK WITHDRAWAL

On this field of ruins, the revolution put down, with no hope of victory for any of the many reactionary camps, direct negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have begun to bear fruit, under the watchful eye of UN special envoy Hans Grundberg. Prisoners are being exchanged, the October 2022 ceasefire agreement has halted Saudi aerial bombardments and Houthi drone attacks, access to humanitarian aid improves, discussions have begun on the payment of Houthi officials on Yemeni oil revenues, managed by Saudi Arabia, a key demand of the Houthis. All this constitutes a fragile hope for peace, but in a country devastated and fragmented by the old hierarchies and imperialist aggression, which seems to have killed the democratic and unitary hope of an entire generation of youth. This is a fragile hope for peace, which is nevertheless essential for the reorganisation of Yemeni civil and democratic society, which is the only real bearer of hope.

Because a “victory” for the Houthis, through the withdrawal of the Saudi enemy, and the end of its financial and military support to the various anti-Houthi fronts, is not synonymous with the victory of democracy or women’s rights. Far from it! The numerous imprisonments, assassinations, disappearances, Kalashnikov volleys in the legs that the Houthi government has inflicted on its opposition, the multiple corruption cases or the campaigns for decent Islamic dress attest to this.

But the Saudi horizon of withdrawal from Yemen cannot be understood solely through the failure of its military adventure. It must be seen in relation to the evolution of the international situation, and to the more autonomous role that MBS wants to play in it. Two international events illustrate this new situation. A month before the US mid-term elections, Saudi Arabia chose to cut OPEC production by two million barrels a day to increase its oil revenues. This dealt a severe blow to Biden by sending oil prices higher just before a difficult election for the Democrats. And it gave a breath of fresh air to Putin, who saw oil revenues soar despite sanctions against his invasion of Ukraine. While Biden went so far as to shamefully shake MBS’s hand in Jeddah, after calling for his isolation following Khashoggi’s murder, and did everything he could to block Bernie Sanders’ Senate resolution on war powers to limit U.S. support for the war in Yemen, while U.S. courts granted immunity to the prince, Biden has not been able to count on the support of Saudi Arabia in his standoff with Russia over oil.

In April 2023, during a spectacular meeting in China, under the aegis of Xi Jinping, Saudi Arabia and Iran re-established diplomatic relations, which had been severed since 2016. Another sensational announcement was the creation of a Chinese-made drone assembly plant in Saudi Arabia. Or participation in the BRICS alongside China and Russia. At the same time, Mohammed bin Salman put on the table the proposal to establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel, in exchange for a binding commitment by the United States to defend Saudi Arabia in the event of aggression. MBS’s desire is clearly to disengage from the Yemeni quagmire, to move forward in peace negotiations with the Houthis, against the backdrop of the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, to make the most of the oil rent, even if it means putting the American godfather in difficulty, to refocus on his 2030 horizon, by taking advantage of a multipolar world and the tensions between China and the United States to better negotiate a more autonomous place. Again, even if it means offending the United States.

4 October 2023

USA
Two Victories: One for Women, One for Workers

TUESDAY 14 NOVEMBER 2023, BY DAN LA BOTZ

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The last week has seen two victories for America’s underdogs. In the national elections on November 7, Ohio voters, led by a resurgent women’s movement, voted to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. And in Virginia, where Republicans were advocating new restrictions on abortion, the Democrats won control of both houses of the state legislature. Finally in Kentucky, Democratic governor Andy Beshear was reelected governor running against a Republican advocate of the state’s virtually complete ban on abortions. These victories for women’s right to control their own bodies in these swing states, also suggest that even though many voters have little enthusiasm for President Joe Biden, the abortion issue might help him to defeat Trump in next year’s presidential election.

In other November elections at the local level, in non-partisan school board elections, liberal or moderate candidates defeated the rightwing Moms for Liberty and the 1776 Project. Those far-right groups have spent the last couple of years in sometimes violent disruptions of school board meetings to demand an end to teaching or textbooks dealing with race and gender issues. The results suggest that the right-wingers only succeeded in mobilizing voters who are tired of the right’s culture wars, conservative politics and strategy of creating chaos in community institutions.

THE ACTORS UNION WINS

The actors’ union, SAG-AFTRA, ended it 148-day strike, the longest in the union’s history, on November 9. Union president Fran Drescher, former star of “The Nanny,” 160,000 actors struck against both the historic Hollywood Corporations, such as Warner Brothers and Paramount, and the new online streaming companies, such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix, paralyzed the industry also idling as many as two million other workers, from make-up artists to set builders.

In her angry speech that launched the strike, Drescher said, “they plead poverty, that they’re losing money left and right while giving hundreds of millions of dollars to their CEOs." While Drescher’s career made her very wealthy, many actors live hand-to-mouth as they move from one production to another.

In the end, the actors won a three-year contract that improves wages and conditions as well as protecting members from threats from new streaming services and artificial intelligence technology.

Regarding AI, the corporations must now have an actors’ signed consent to use their digital replica for specific purposes. Workers will be compensated not only with residuals but also for future viewing of streaming shows. Actors won a 7% general wage increase in the first year, 4% in the second, and 3.5% after that. Background actors won 11% for the first year and the same increase as others in the next two. Actors who dance or sing will receive additional pay. Intimacy coordinators for scenes involving nudity or simulate sex will be mandated, and hair and make-up artists must properly serve the ethnicity of the actors.

The victory of the actors’ contract and women’s triumph over abortion access demonstrate a revival of both the labor and social movements. These victories together with the recent United Auto Workers strike and their new contract, the strikes of nurses and teachers, and new life in the Amazon organizing campaign represent a resurgence of social struggle and move the politics to the left a little. And over the last month we have a new movement in solidarity with Palestine that has mobilized tens of thousands in cities across the country.

And, at the same time, we seem to be headed to a rematch between former president Donald Trump, facing several criminal indictments, and president Biden, who has alienated some young progressive voters. We also have the screwball wildcard candidates like crystal-age Marianne Williamson and conspiracy monger Robert F. Kennedy Jr. And now Joe Manchin, an extremely conservative Democrat from West Virginia, is toying with the idea of running for president as the candidate of the No Labels movement. Left-of-center candidates like Jill Stein in the Green Party and the independent Cornel West remain marginal. We on the left don’t seem to be able to create the political alternative that we need and desire. So, we have, as usual, this troubling disjunction between the movement and electoral politics to overcome.

12 November 2023

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