Friday, March 06, 2026

THE EPSTEIN CLASS


'Operation Epstein Distraction': Sexual assault allegations against Trump emerge



Issued on: 06/03/2026 



Play (06:31 min)

PRESS REVIEW – Friday, March 6: International papers discuss US President Donald Trump's "warrior transformation" and speculate about how the new war in the Middle East could benefit Russia. Also: the US Department of Justice publishes an interview that outlines sexual assault allegations against Trump. Finally, is the US president trying to distract attention from the Epstein files with the new war? This question has inspired quite a few cartoons.

Papers from across the world are following the war in the Middle East. Spanish daily El País writes that "two out of three Spaniards oppose the war against Iran". However, "61 percent support sending a frigate to Cyprus in response to the Iranian attacks" and as a commitment to defend the European Union.

French newspaper La Croix headlines with "Trump's warrior transformation". The attack on Iran shows a dramatic turnaround by the US president, who was once opposed to "endless wars". Lebanese newspaper L'Orient-Le Jour headlines with "an entire population forced to flee", showing a scared child on the street and massive traffic jams after Israeli forces ordered the evacuation of Beirut's southern suburbs.

Israeli papers are not always on the same page. An analysis in the left-wing paper Haaretz says that "Trump's fantasies for Iran go beyond regime change". It says that the joint US-Israeli war is a "bid to consolidate a new regional order in the Middle East". Trump's vision for this order is not democratic values, human rights or international law, says the analysis. The paper reminds us that his central partners in the Gulf states are authoritarian monarchies where the ultra-rich employ poor migrants from the Global South. Therefore, the new emerging order is driven by economic interests: defence technologies, AI, crypto, real estate and finance, where the Gulf is a "haven for capital," not limited by the "perils of democracy". An analysis in the right-wing paper The Times of Israel says that the Gulf states are living "their worst nightmare", because they've spent decades trying to avoid direct conflict with Iran. The article says that Iran hopes that inflicting enough pain on its neighbours will pressure Trump to end the war. But this strategy might end up backfiring: the Gulf states are cooperating even more closely with Israel, opening pathways to new alliances.

The Washington Post writes that "Russia could benefit from the new war", as Trump's attention may be totally diverted with weapons rerouted to the Middle East. Russian oil might be put back on the table amid surging oil prices. The Ukrainian paper The Kyiv Independent writes that "in the Middle East, chaos is Putin's new ally". The opinion piece says that people shouldn't be worried that Putin will intervene on behalf of Iran; he will instead try to exploit the new war.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that the US Department of Justice has published documents that outline sexual assault allegations against Donald Trump. It's a trio of FBI interviews with a woman who says that Trump sexually assaulted her when she was a young teenager, between the ages of 13 and 15. She was introduced to him by the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Her central allegation is that the president forced her to perform oral sex on him – she says she then bit his private parts to defend herself, after which he punched her. These files come as Democrats have been investigating whether the US Justice Department deliberately withheld material that includes sexual assault allegations against Trump.

Finally, we take a look at some cartoons that imply Trump attacked Iran only to divert global attention from the Epstein files. "Operation Epstein Distraction" was renamed to "Operation Epic Fury" so that's it's not too obvious, says one of the cartoons wryly.



#METOO REDUX
In France, women accusing Al-Fayed seek answers over trafficking claims


Paris (AFP) – Mohamed Al-Fayed traded on the glamour of owning Harrods, the Paris Ritz and luxury yachts, but he and his brother were also at the centre of a dark web of alleged abuse, say French lawyers for women who liken him to US sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein.


Issued on: 04/03/2026 - RFI


Mohamed Al-Fayed, who died in September 2023, is accused by at least 37 women of rape and sexual assault. © AP - Kamil Zihnioglu

French authorities began investigating the late Egyptian businessman and his brother Salah last year amid allegations of a vast system of sex trafficking and abuse on French soil.

"Every time I met Mohamed Al-Fayed, he tried to assault me," his former personal assistant Kristina Svensson told French police of her two years working at the Ritz.

Her testimony is all too familiar.

The alleged crimes of Mohamed Al-Fayed, who died in 2023 aged 94, first came to light in a BBC investigation in September 2024. In it, several young women who worked at his upmarket London department store Harrods accused him of rape and sexual assault.

Late Harrods owner Al-Fayed accused of rape: BBC

British police told AFP that 154 victims have so far come forward to say the former owner of Premier League club Fulham abused them.

His brother Salah, who died in 2010, is also accused.

More than 400 people come forward over Al-Fayed sexual abuse claims

But frustrated by London Metropolitan Police's investigation of the alleged crimes, which span more than 35 years, some victims have turned to France in the hope of finding justice.

"In England they're ignoring the trafficking... They just want to make it about Al-Fayed and Harrods," said Rachael Louw, a former Al-Fayed employee, speaking for the first time about her ordeal.

The French investigation, however, is handled by "a unit specialised in human trafficking", she told AFP.

It is "a relief that our cases are actually being recognised as trafficking".

Mohamed Al-Fayed, outsider shunned by British high society


Consumed 'like meat'


Louw was 23 when her bosses sent her to Salah Fayed's yacht on the French Riviera. Now after 31 years she was able to testify about what happened there to French investigators on February 10.

Louw told AFP she was first "spotted" by Mohamed Al-Fayed in 1993 while working as a sales assistant at Harrods. Shortly after, she was placed on a management training scheme, which required her to submit to a medical exam by a Harley Street doctor before being employed by the chairman's office in the summer of 1994.

Rachael Louw, a former employee of late Salah Fayed, brother of late Egyptian businessman Mohamed Al-Fayed, here during a photo session in Paris on 9 February, 2026, was 23 when her bosses sent her to Salah Fayed's yacht on the French Riviera. AFP - JOEL SAGET


The medical appointment went far beyond a standard checkup, with a pelvic exam and "thorough breast exam", smear and HIV tests.

And the results were not kept confidential.

The report, seen by AFP, was handed over to Harrods, and described Louw's personal life: her parents' separation when she was young, her father living in the United States and the death of her mother and grandmother.

The doctor also noted that she took a birth control pill, had a boyfriend and was in "excellent" health.

The doctor "sent confidential information to arm the rapist", said French lawyer Eva Joly, who is representing Louw and another former Al-Fayed assistant.

"These young women were like meat, and they wanted to know if they were fit to consume," said Caroline Joly, another member of the legal team.

Several encounters were arranged between Louw and Salah Fayed at his home in London's glitzy Park Lane, where Louw said she was drugged with "a crack cocaine mix".

Louw was then offered a job as an assistant to Salah in France and she was sent there by private jet.

She said she refused further drugs, "and because he didn't push anymore, I thought it was okay".

"I had no reason not to trust this man... this was my first job from university."

'I didn't feel safe'

Staff confiscated her passport as she flew from London's Luton airport to his yacht. And once she arrived, "nothing" resembled the job she signed up for.

"I thought I was supposed to be filing paperwork, making arrangements, organising office work," she said.

Instead "there was no office, no normal working hours, no time off. I was expected to just be with him", she said.

Louw recalled appearing alongside Salah Fayed at dinners attended by elderly, wealthy men with "young girls and lots of touching".

When she managed to call her boyfriend, who worked at Harrods, he was fired.

One night, Louw woke up to find Salah in her bed, claiming he was lonely, she said.

"I went ramrod straight and the rest of the night I was awake just lying there petrified," she said, fearing any movement would be an invitation for him to touch her.

"I didn't know what he would do to me... I didn't feel safe."

She saw other young women in the Fayeds' orbit.

On a trip to Saint Tropez she encountered a red-headed "young girl", possibly younger than herself, sunbathing on Mohamed Al-Fayed's yacht that was moored just off his villa.

"Mohamed starts rubbing lotion all over this girl, she's wearing a bathing suit and then he started to kiss her," Louw told AFP.

"I don't remember anything else" of that day, she said, "so I don't know if there were drugs, I can't say for sure whether I was drugged that afternoon," she added.

What jolted her to escape was the prospect of being trapped alone with Salah after he bought a speedboat with only one bedroom, telling her "that he would take me to sail around the Italian coast".

"I knew that if I went on that boat nothing good would happen," she said.

Panicked, she booked the first Air France flight out and worked up the courage to ask for her passport back, which she received although it was clear Salah "was very angry".

Home again, "I had blocked out" the details of what happened, she said. "I didn't want to remember."

For decades she feared she was bound by a confidentiality agreement she had signed at her interview, but seeing other victims speak out against Al-Fayed in 2024, she reconsidered.

"How can I be silent? There has to be a cost to what the perpetrators did. Because if they go unpunished, it emboldens the next man.

"If we women do not speak up we become complicit in our own oppression... powerful men will never change a system that benefits them."

Alleged victims Gemma, Lindsay and Jen after a press conference held by the legal team featured in "Al-Fayed: Predator at Harrods", in London on 31 October, 2024, after barristers provided an update on their investigation into Harrods corporate failure to provide a safe system of work for its employees. AFP - BENJAMIN CREMEL

'Organised system'

Despite the deaths of the brothers, the women hope investigators can still track down who enabled the trafficking network.

"There is no such thing as a small piece of information. Every element is useful for the investigation," Al-Fayed assistant Svensson said, calling on victims and witnesses to speak to police.

The Swedish woman arrived in France in 1993 and was placed by a temp agency at the Ritz in 1998, then owned by Mohamed Al-Fayed, as his assistant.

Svensson, aged 30 at the time, was to help him manage his affairs after the death of his son Dodi with Princess Diana in a Paris car crash, perceived as a prestigious assignment.

Mohamed-al Fayed's spokeswoman, Katharine Witty, speaks after the inquest verdict is announced into the deaths of Princess Diana and Dodi-al-Fayed at the High Court in London 7 April, 2008. (Photo : Reuters)

During her interview with the Ritz management, the questions posed were "focused" on her appearance and her personal background, she said, even pointing out that she was the "spitting image" of Al-Fayed's wife.

The Ritz then sent her to Harrods in London for an interview with Al-Fayed himself, and organised accommodation for her at a luxury residence he owned.

"I had brought my CV. He wasn't interested in that. He only asked me personal questions."

What followed was a regular pattern of meetings with Al-Fayed. Svensson said she was left in a room alone for hours with no instruction, until he eventually arrived and she would endure sexual assault and attempted rape during which "he'd laugh".

"I hoped that in time he would see that I wasn't interested in him and that he would take me seriously," Svensson told police.

"I was a foreigner, with no family or network in the country, no knowledge of French labour law, and no one to lean on financially if I quit."

In retrospect, Svensson compares herself to a closely watched "luxury product", which Al-Fayed wanted to possess, "a doll on a shelf".

Al-Fayed was born Mohamed Fayed in Alexandria, but later changed his surname to the grander Al-Fayed, while his brother kept the original family name.
London investigation 'continues'

At the Ritz, she recalls that staff warned her that there were "microphones and cameras in every corner". And at a villa in Saint Tropez, she said a housekeeper suggested that she block her bedroom door at night.

The Ritz Paris told AFP in a statement that it was "deeply saddened by the testimonies and the allegations of abuse" and that it is "ready to fully cooperate with the judicial authorities. Our teams do not tolerate any form of inappropriate behaviour, which would be a serious breach of our code of conduct.

"We want to express our deepest respect to the women who spoke out," it added.

Harrods said it "continues to support the bravery of all women in coming forward. Their claims point to the breadth of abuse by Mohamed Fayed and again raise serious allegations against his brother, Salah Fayed. The picture that has emerged suggests that this pattern of abusive behaviour took place wherever they operated."

They said more than 180 survivors had already received counselling support through its independent advocate. The store also urged survivors to claim compensation through the Harrods Redress Scheme.

London's Metropolitan police said its "investigation into those who could have facilitated or enabled Mohamed Al-Fayed's offending continues" and urged victims to come forward.

"The way the Met works has moved on immeasurably, and our teams have transformed the way we investigate rape and sexual offences."

Lawyers for the two women say their testimony helps sketch the outlines of a "powerful system" of trafficking which resembles the one established during the same period by Epstein.

"As with Epstein, with the Al-Fayeds there is a frenzied consumption of young women and an organised system to procure them," said lawyer Eva Joly, who is also a former judge and European parliament member.

"The pattern is the same: selecting vulnerable young women, transport, accommodation, isolation and money, which is used to intimidate or corrupt," she said.

And as with the Epstein case, while the statute of limitations may have expired, an investigation into the Al-Fayeds can still establish the facts and identify any victims whose cases could be still prosecuted.

"We are only at the beginning of piecing the puzzle together in France," Joly insisted.
2026 WORLD CUP

Conflict and controversy hang over World Cup as 100-day countdown kicks off


Tuesday marks 100 days until the start of the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada. Iran's participation in the tournament is in doubt after American and Israeli armed forces launched strikes on the country, while controversy over ticket prices, drug wars in Mexico and travel bans imposed by United States President Donald Trump are also casting shadows over preparations.


Issued on: 03/03/2026 - RFI


Forty-eight teams will compete for the 2026 World Cup which takes place between 11 June and 19 July in the United States, Canada and Mexico. 
AFP - ULISES RUIZ

Iran's soccer chief Mehdi Taj said he and senior government officials would assess whether the squad should take part in the competition, which begins on 11 June.

"It's not possible to say exactly, but there will certainly be a response," Taj said during a panel discussion on Iran's IRIB Channel 3.

"This will surely be studied by the country's high-ranking sports officials and there will be a decision on what's going to happen. But what we can say now is that due to this attack and its viciousness, it is far from our expectations that we can look at the World Cup with hope."

Iran booked a place in the tournament at their fourth successive finals last year, by topping Group A in the third round of Asian qualifying.

They are scheduled to play in Group G with Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand, with their matches taking place in Los Angeles and Seattle.

If they were to finish their pool in second place and the US also finish the group stages as runners-up, the sides could meet in the last-32 knockout round.

If Iran were to withdraw, a replacement team would likely come from the Asian Football Confederation.

Criticism of ticket prices

Questions over Iran's participation follow doubts over the suitability of hosts Mexico, after the death on 23 February of drug lord Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes following a Mexican special forces operation. The attack led to more than 60 deaths around Mexico in a series of reprisals.

Following assurances last week from Fifa boss Gianni Infantino, Mexican president Claudia Scheinbaum also assured fans they would not be at risk when attending matches in Mexico City, Monterrey and Guadalajara.

In addition, the price of tickets is causing controversy. The cheapest range from €103 to €228 for group-stage games that do not involve co-hosts.

England's Football Association shared pricing information with the England Supporters Travel Club showing that if a fan bought a ticket for every game through to the final it would cost just over €7,000.

Fifa has reduced some prices in the wake of criticism. Fan organisation Football Supporters Europe welcomed this move but said the revisions did not go far enough – and highlighted the absence of a pricing structure for disabled fans or complementary companion tickets.

Nigeria and Tunisia bosses ignore World Cup fortunes for Cup of Nations clash

It said: "For the moment we are looking at the Fifa announcement as nothing more than an appeasement tactic due to the global negative backlash. We call upon Fifa to engage in a proper dialogue to arrive at a solution that respects the contribution of fans, and the dignity of fans with disabilities."

Fifa says nearly 2 million tickets have been sold in the first two sales phases. Residents of the three host countries drove the most purchases, followed by fans in France, England, Germany, Brazil, Colombia, Spain and Argentina.

One month before the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Fifa said 2.89 million tickets had been sold for 64 matches in eight stadiums. Overall, 3,182,406 tournament tickets were sold, harvesting nearly €700 million in revenue.

Travel bans

US travel and visa restrictions could also limit the number of supporters at matches on American soil.

Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire are among dozens of countries whose citizens now face new entry restrictions under a policy introduced by President Donald Trump on national security grounds. Iran and Haiti are subject to broader suspensions.

The measures do not apply to players, coaches, officials or accredited staff, who will be allowed to enter the United States for the tournament. But for many ordinary supporters, obtaining a tourist visa is now likely to prove difficult.

Fan groups have warned that the restrictions risk excluding thousands of supporters from the expanded 48-team competition, much of which will be staged in US cities.
The race for the title

On the pitch, defending champions Argentina will begin their campaign on 26 June in Group J. The South Americans open against Algeria in Kansas City before further group matches against Austria and Jordan.

France, beaten on penalties by Argentina in the 2022 final in Doha, begin what is set to be Didier Deschamps’ final tournament as head coach against Senegal on 16 June. They will also face a team from the intercontinental play-offs before concluding the group stage against Norway.

The final will take place on 19 July at the Meadowlands Sports Complex in New Jersey.


Greek court upholds convictions of neo-Nazi Golden Dawn leaders

A Greek appeals court on Wednesday upheld the convictions of leaders of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party for running a criminal organisation, in a landmark ruling linked to violent attacks during the country’s economic crisis.


Issued on: 04/03/2026 - RFI

A supporter holds a Golden Dawn flag during a demonstration on 29 November 2019. Yannis Behrakis/Reuters

The court confirmed earlier guilty verdicts against dozens of party members over crimes including the murder of anti-fascist rapper Pavlos Fyssas in 2013 and attacks on migrant workers and trade unionists.

More than 40 defendants face possible sentences of up to 15 years in prison, with the presiding judge expected to announce the punishments later on Wednesday.

Golden Dawn rose to prominence during the 2012 debt crisis, when 18 of its members were elected to parliament.

The group became known for violent anti-migrant rhetoric and for so-called “assault battalions” that targeted left-wing activists and minorities.

The turning point came in 2013, when anti-fascist rapper Pavlos Fyssas was stabbed to death by party member Giorgos Roupakias.


Reviewing verdicts

In 2020, after a five-year trial, a court convicted party leaders including Nikos Michaloliakos of running a criminal organisation. Members were also found guilty over the attempted murder of Egyptian fishermen in Perama and attacks on trade unionists.

The appeals court is now reviewing those verdicts. The prosecutor has recommended that the convictions be upheld in full and has called for harsher sentences for senior figures including Ilias Kasidiaris and Ioannis Lagos.

The court also confirmed the murder conviction of Giorgos Roupakias for killing Fyssas.

Tension had been building ahead of the decision, with victims’ families led by Fyssas’s mother Magda calling for closure.

More than 200 people gathered outside the Athens court in support of Fyssas during the hearing.



Strike and rallies


The public sector union Adedy has called a strike in the Attica region until 11am. It has urged workers to gather outside the appeals court at 8.30am.

In a statement, the union called for the "Nazi murderers to receive the harshest possible penalties" adding that the "labor movement fights against fascism and the system that breeds it".

The Piraeus Labor Center also urged workers and young people to join the rally. "Only through organised struggle can we crush fascism," it said.

The left-wing opposition party Syriza called for mass participation, saying that "the presence of every democratic citizen is necessary."

In its statement, the party warned of a resurgence of the far-right across Europe and urged citizens to honour the memory of victims including Pavlos Fyssas and migrant worker Sahzat Lukman.

Golden Dawn was once Greece’s third-biggest party, gaining around 400,000 votes at the height of its influence before losing its parliamentary representation in 2019.

(with newswires)
Landslide at DR Congo coltan mine kills more than 200, including children

More than 200 people were killed on Tuesday in a landslide triggered by heavy rains at the Rubaya coltan mine in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, the country's mining ministry said late Wednesday.


Issued on: 05/03/2026 - RFI

Survivors of a landslide at an open pit coltan mine in Rubaya are seen at home on 30 January, 2026. © AFP


The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) reported more than 200 deaths, including those of around 70 children, in a statement released on Wednesday evening by the Ministry of Mines.


The landslide occurred on Tuesday afternoon, according to witnesses.

"The provisional death toll stands at more than 200 Congolese citizens, including approximately 70 child miners, and numerous injured who have been evacuated to medical facilities in Goma," the statement read.

These figures could not be confirmed with independent sources by news agencies AFP and Reuters.

The mine is in a remote region, approximately 70 kilometres west of Goma, the capital of the troubled North Kivu province in eastern DRC, to which humanitarian organisations do not have access and where there are no large-scale health facilities. Telecommunications are regularly cut off.

Rebel control


A senior figure from the AFC/M23 rebel group, which controls the mine, had earlier told Reuters that only five or six people had been killed.

Since its resurgence in late 2021, the anti-government group M23 – with the support of Kigali and the Rwandan army – has seized vast swathes of territory in eastern DRC, a region rich in natural resources and ravaged by conflict for three decades.

The Rubaya mine has been under the control of AFC/M23 since 2024, and DRC authorities have not been present since then.

"The damaged site is one of those where continued operation had been discouraged pending the securing of the area and the implementation of protective measures for miners. The incident is due to the heavy rains of the last few days," according to a second senior AFC/M23 figure.

The mine was recently added to a shortlist of mining assets being offered by the DRC's government to the United States under a minerals cooperation framework.

Precarious conditions

Rubaya produces between 15 and 30 percent of the world's coltan, a strategic mineral for the electronics industry.

Coltan is processed into tantalum, a heat-resistant metal that is in high demand for makers of mobile phones, computers, aerospace components and gas turbines.

It is widely mined in the DRC, which is estimated to hold at least 60 percent of the world's reserves.

Spotlight on Africa: the race for Africa's critical minerals

Thousands of miners work daily in the Rubaya mines, in precarious conditions and without safety measures, most often equipped with only shovels and a pair of rubber boots.

The landslide came a month after another disaster at the site at the end of January which killed "several" people according to an M23 official, but more than 200 according to the authorities in Kinshasa.

In recent days, fighting had intensified near the mining site, in a region where government forces have conducted attacks against the rebel group, including drone strikes.

(with newswires)

Mine collapses in eastern Congo, with official death toll disputed by M23 rebels



Military bases and trade routes leave Africa exposed to war fallout

Nairobi (AFP) – Africa hosts military bases within reach of Iranian missiles and is feeling the impact of rising oil prices and threats to shipping, as the continent again suffers from events largely beyond its control.



Issued on: 05/03/2026 - RFI

People walk by the flags of Israel and Somaliland between the capital city of Hargeisa and Port city of Berbera, in Somaliland, on 19 February, 2026. 
AFP - TONY KARUMBA

The continent is "structurally exposed" to the Middle East war, said Hubert Kinkoh, senior researcher at the CARPO think tank.

"Energy imports, foreign military bases, and its proximity to maritime chokepoints mean the war's effects reach African shores quickly."
Targets

The Horn of Africa includes possible targets for Iranian strikes, notably the 4,000 US military personnel at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.

It lies less than 100 miles (160 kilometres) from Yemen, where Houthi rebels have an arsenal of ballistic and anti-ship missiles, and drones, courtesy of Iran.

The Houthis have not engaged in the conflict despite vowing to do so, but have previously caused major trade disruption with attacks on Red Sea shipping during the Israel-Hamas war.

Somaliland, just south of Djibouti, could also be a target as it hosts a major port and military base at Berbera run by another Iranian enemy, the United Arab Emirates.

Israel recently became the only country to recognise Somaliland's independence from Somalia, and a Western diplomat told AFP that it may already have troops in Somaliland.

"Berbera is not a confirmed target, but its location (near the southern entrance to the Red Sea) leaves it vulnerable, particularly as Iran‑aligned groups widen the range of facilities they view as linked to US or allied operations," said Kinkoh.

Economic impact

Economically, the war is terrible timing for Africa, just as a weaker dollar and lower interest rates offered some breathing space for its many deeply indebted nations.

The war is disrupting global trade, diverting ships from the Suez Canal to the pricier route around the Cape, and hiking prices across the board, including for energy and food.

An oil producer like Nigeria might have benefited, but it locked in low prices for its exports in long-term contracts and remains a net importer of refined fuel because of its limited refining capacity.

Pump prices in Nigeria were up around 14 percent this week.

Nigerian think tank SBM Intelligence said the new crisis has exposed its government's "wait-and-see" approach to international affairs, which leaves its "economic interests subject to forces beyond our control" -- a criticism that could be levelled at many on the continent.

African economies also rely on remittances from the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers in the Gulf that are now threatened. Previous crises in the Middle East have revealed the near-total lack of evacuation planning or even emergency hotlines for them.

Diplomatic fallout

While some African countries have done too little, others are accused of over-reach.

South Africa is perhaps the most exposed diplomatically, having already riled the United States with its opposition to Israel, and hosted Iranian warships for naval exercises in January -- even if the government has since disavowed its involvement and said the military acted against presidential orders.

"South Africa will want to reinforce the signalling to the world that it is a non-aligned neutral actor. That is a message it's going to really struggle to sell, given that Iran was so active in the exercise," said Timothy Walker, of the Institute for Security Studies.

William Gumede, professor of public management at the University of Witwatersrand, said South Africa's geopolitical posturing was ill-advised and could now trigger US sanctions against members of the government.

"Our economy is so vulnerable... We do not have a luxury to try to grandstand globally," he said.

Geopolitics

In the longer term, the war is bound to play into the shifting geopolitics of the region, which have seen Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and others expand their reach into Africa -- building ports and infrastructure, supplying drones, establishing military bases and drilling for oil, especially in east Africa.

Gulf powers have been accused of fomenting conflict in places like Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia, and so some hope the new war may have positive consequences.

"A UAE forced to concentrate on defending its own airspace and territory may reduce its footprint in African conflicts, creating space for African-led peace processes to function more effectively," said SBM Intelligence.
With oil once again a weapon in the Middle East, is clean energy the key to peace?

By closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil and gas facilities in Gulf countries, Tehran is driving up hydrocarbon prices. But renewable energy – largely dominated by China – is not immune to the effects of geopolitical tensions either.



Issued on: 05/03/2026 - RFI

The Strait of Hormuz is the only channel connecting the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. 
REUTERS - Dado Ruvic

Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February, prompting retaliation by Tehran, the price of crude oil has risen by around 13 percent.

Iran has made the Strait of Hormuz a cornerstone of its counter-offensive, blocking maritime traffic along the world's most vital oil export route.

Around 20 percent of the world's daily oil consumption passes through the strait, which connects the biggest Gulf oil producers – Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and ​the United Arab Emirates – with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The use of oil as a weapon of war is by no means new.

Following the 1973 Arab-Israeli War between Israel and neighbouring Arab countries, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed an embargo on Israel’s allies. This triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, known as the first oil shock.

“Oil now appears to play an important role in the evolution of international relations, because it sheds a completely new light on the Middle East question,” said Abdelaziz Bouteflika, then foreign minister of OPEC member Algeria.

According to André Giraud, France’s industry minister at the time of the second oil shock – caused by the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979 – “oil is a raw material with strong diplomatic and military content”.

Iran also previously blocked the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, when dozens of ships were sunk in the strait.

In September 2019, the Houthis in Yemen – supported and armed by Iran – also bombed a major Saudi oil installation.


The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier (L) transits the Strait of Hormuz on 19 November, 2019. AFP - ZACHARY PEARSON

'Peaceful' energy

“For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic issue,” says Olivier Appert, an adviser at the Energy-Climate Centre of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “It may be the weapon of the weak against the strong. It is not unprecedented, but it is still worrying.”

In response to Israeli-American bombings, Iran has struck Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery as well as gas facilities in Qatar, pushing up the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

While there's a pattern to targeting fossil energy infrastructure, renewables appear more sheltered from geopolitical tensions. Green energies such as solar and wind power have a more peaceful image. Once installed, solar panels are largely protected from geopolitical upheaval and sudden price spikes.

“Renewable energy is the guarantor of peace in the 21st century” wrote UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in an op-ed published in Le Monde after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Mideast war exposes fragile oil, gas dependency

Yet renewables are not immune to conflict – albeit of the commercial variety.

China holds many of the rare earth elements whose magnetic, optical and catalytic properties make key clean‑energy technologies more efficient and compact.

“The players are not the same, but as early as 2011 China decided to control rare earth exports to Japan,” Appert says. “China is very clearly using its monopolistic capacity to impose its views. Unfortunately, renewable energies also respond to highly significant geopolitical challenges.”

So could this latest surge in oil prices accelerate the energy transition?

In 1973, during the first oil shock, then French president Georges Pompidou said: “Let us save petrol, save electricity, save heating and my God, we will manage, I hope, to overcome the difficulties."

France had no oil at that time, but it did have ideas, and went on to launch a vast programme of nuclear power stations to produce low-carbon energy.

Fifty years later, Appert says the context is different, but the current crisis “justifies the need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels".

He warns, however, that "we must be careful not to fall back into dependence on China" – a far less visible and less spectacular conflict but an energy war nonetheless.
UNESCO raises alarm over heritage sites as bombing in Iran intensifies

The United Nations cultural body UNESCO has called on warring parties in the Middle East to respect international conventions protecting cultural property after Iran’s heritage-listed Golestan Palace was damaged in US-Israeli air strikes.


Issued on: 03/03/2026 - RFI


Damage to Golestan Palace in Tehran, after US and Israeli airstrikes, 2 March, 2026.
 © پاد / POD

The palace in Tehran was hit in an attack on Arag Square in the south of the city on Sunday evening, local media reported.

“Following the joint US-Israeli attack on Arag square in southern Tehran on Sunday evening, parts of the Golestan Palace... were damaged,” the ISNA news agency reported. It added that windows, doors and mirrors were hit by reverberations from blasts.

Iran’s Mehr news agency carried a similar report.


UNESCO warning

The former royal palace “was reportedly damaged by debris and the shock wave following an air strike to the Arag Square, located in the buffer zone of the site in the Iranian capital”, Unesco said in a statement late on Monday.

The UN cultural agency said it had “communicated to all parties concerned the geographical coordinates of sites on the World Heritage List as well as those of national significance, to avoid any potential damage”.

EU foreign ministers warn on impact of conflict in Iran after Khamenei's death

It also pointed to protections for cultural property set out in international conventions.

The Iranian presidential office’s information channel released video and images of the palace interior.

Afarin Emami, director of the Golestan Palace World Heritage Site, said there was significant damage to “architectural decorations, especially wooden elements, including doors, windows, and decorative moldings”.
Damage to Golestan Palace, Tehran after US-Israeli airstrikes, 2 March, 2026. © پاد / POD

War impact

He added that after the 12-day war, objects in the palace were collected and transferred to secure storage, and no damage was done to them.

Golestan Palace was the residence of the Qajar dynasty’s kings and was registered on the Unesco World Heritage List in July 2013.

The conflict started on Saturday when the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran has responded by targeting US allies in the Gulf region.

The US military said on Tuesday it had hit more than 1,250 targets in the first 48 hours of the war against Iran.

A fact sheet released by US Central Command, which is responsible for American forces in the region, said the targets included command-and-control centres, ballistic missile sites, Iranian navy ships and submarines, and anti-ship missile sites.

(with newswires)


 

BONNER: The strategic vacuum at the heart of Operation Epic Fury

BONNER: The strategic vacuum at the heart of Operation Epic Fury
BONNER: The strategic vacuum at the heart of Operation Epic Fury / bne IntelliNews
By Michael Bonner bnm Tehran bureau March 6, 2026

No plan survives first contact with the enemy. That popular quotation is really a paraphrase of a somewhat more verbose statement by Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder in 1871. It’s obviously true: events, like individuals and groups, are unpredictable and even well-executed plans have unforeseen and unforeseeable consequences. But what happens when there is apparently no plan?

Operation Epic Fury, the American and Israeli attack on Iran, is answering that question. Air supremacy was established in a matter of hours. The upper echelons of the government and military were rapidly slain along with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. All signs point to reiterated slaughter of their replacements indefinitely, as well as degradation of missile caches, launchers and other military installations.

Iran’s plan, if it has one, seems to revolve around creating as much chaos and confusion as possible.

The regime reacted by opening fire with drones and missiles not only on Israel but on their immediate neighbours also. More than 500 Iranian ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones have been flung across the Middle East. Not all have been aimed at American or Israeli military targets. A disproportionate number fell on civilian buildings and infrastructure in the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Nato defences shot down a missile apparently aimed at Turkey.

This seems to be what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi implied by ‘Decentralized Mosaic Defense’. Whatever he meant by that, the indiscriminate missile and drone salvos look like a breakdown in command and control. Araghchi seemed to confirm that in an interview with Al Jazeera. Units were acting, he said, in an "independent and somewhat isolated" way, "based on general instructions given to them in advance".

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have vowed to attack all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the energy choke point in the Persian Gulf. And yet, Foreign Minister Araghchi claimed that Iran had no intention of closing the Strait. Shipping traffic there has practically ground to halt as a result of this apparent confusion.

The remnants of Iranian leadership may judge that inflicting damage throughout the region and making the Strait unusable will raise the cost of the war. Spreading the pain may be a way of pressurising America to back down. Such a judgements are dangerous and likely to backfire. Iranian aggression now threatens to unite the Gulf states with Israel and America, and may also invite a response from Nato if Turkey feels sufficiently menaced.

However, curtailing the war would not salvage the Iranian Regime. ‘Survival is victory’ is an oft-recurring trope applied to desperate, cornered regimes, but it is mistaken in this case. All the problems which provoked public protest at the end of 2025 are still there. In fact, currency devaluation, hyperinflation, mismanagement of water resources, and the collapse of agriculture are all worse now. The massacre of Iranian protesters earlier this year has further undermined the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic.

This brings us to American and Israeli aims. Destroying the Iranian regime’s military capabilities, including its ballistic missile arsenal, air defences, and nuclear facilities, are obvious goals which have been stated publicly many times. But then what?

US President Donald Trump has spoken vaguely of "regime change". He has also said that he would personally choose the next leader of Iran and that Iranian patriots should "take back" their country. In contrast, US Secretary of State for War, Pete Hegseth has disavowed regime change altogether while also insisted that the regime "sure did change".

We would naturally expect American public communications to leave room for strategic ambiguity and surprise. Recent alarming news about possible Kurdish and Baluch militants marching on Tehran may belong to the same pattern of misdirection and deception. But what is the end state supposed to look like? How will victory be recognised?

The Islamic Republic may well not recover from the murder of the Ayatollah and his circle — but only insofar as joint-rule by clerics and sadistic thugs will disappear and only the thugs will be left in charge. Then there will be a game of whack-a-mole, in which one cohort of Iranian leaders after another are murdered — a process which will only end when Americans grow tired of it. Or perhaps a senior Iranian general may sue for peace and try to make a deal with Trump.

A popular uprising against the Islamic Republic would certainly be the most desirable outcome. But no such thing seems likely to happen until senior members of the regime and the armed forces or paramilitary groups defect, stand down, or join forces with the people. And if such an outcome materialises, it may well owe more to good luck than any strategic plan. We will know soon enough.

Michael Bonner is a historian of Iran, Senior Fellow of the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy, and author of In Defense of Civilization: How Our Past Can Renew Our Present. He holds a doctorate in Iranian history from the University of Oxford and is a contributing editor at the Dorchester Review.

MARINS: Iran's low cost-to-kill missile capacity gives it the upper hand in a long war
US and Iranian forces face a growing war of attrition as missile stockpiles, drone production and the cost of interception reshape the balance of the conflict. / bne IntelliNews
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By Patricia Marins in Rio de Janeiro March 6, 2026


Speculation is swirling over who will run out of missiles first: the US or Iran? The US has fired off five years’ worth of Tomahawk missiles in the first week of the war with Iran and announced a wind-down of the intensity of the attacks on March 5 to allow for a longer fight.

At the same time, Iran has released hundreds of missiles a day in the first few days of the conflict that began on February 28, but has also scaled back its assault in the last two days as its supplies also come under pressure.

Who can outlast the other and produce more missiles and drones in the meantime? One of the major asymmetries in this equation is each combatant's ability to produce new munitions. The US can only produce 100-200 Tomahawks a year at enormous expense, whereas Iran can mass-produce some 50,000 cheap drones a year at factories and has unknown quantities hidden.

Iran has been manufacturing missiles with ranges exceeding 300 km for nearly 40 years and has produced missiles capable of reaching Israel for at least 25 years.

In 1988, the Naze'at-10 reached speeds up to Mach 4 with a range of 130 km. That same year, the Shahab-1 was introduced, with a range of up to 300 km and re-entry speeds exceeding Mach 5. This was followed by the Shahab-2, which had a range of 500 km by the mid-1990s.

Iran’s retaliation over the past three days has exceeded the scale of the 12-day conflict in June 2025. In just three days, Iran has launched over 450 missiles and nearly 1,100 drones.

On the second day, Iran used fragmentation warheads with submunition dispersal during re-entry, a feature of advanced systems and new to the conflicts between Iran and Israel.

These submunition-loaded warheads are typically used on missiles with ranges over 1,000 km, such as the Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad, Khorramshahr, and Sejjil. They can disperse 20 to 1,500 submunitions during or after re-entry. Israel has little defence against this type of munition.

Iranian launches will be hard to stop fully, with possible periods of reduced missile activity interspersed with heavier drone use.

If the US couldn’t halt launches from Yemen or Iraq, why expect success against Iran? They underestimated Iran and now risk humiliation with depleted interceptors, while Iran retains most of its launch capability.

This is the core of the cat-and-mouse game: US and Israeli drones patrol at high altitude, using Search and Rescue (SAR) and other sensor technology to detect heat or smoke from launches, mapping sites for bombings. Iran must then clear tunnels and patrol those areas to restart operations, now with higher risks.

However, Iran is three times larger than Ukraine, and Russia has not fully suppressed Ukrainian drone launches or aircraft operations in a much smaller territory. It is unrealistic to expect total suppression in Iran, though the scale could be reduced, leading Iran to rely more heavily on drones.

Cost-to-kill ratio

The US-Israeli allies began Operation "Epic Fury" with the classic "shock and awe" strategy – use overwhelming force to score a quick knockdown. The decapitation of the Islamic Republic was achieved with the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, along with two dozen other senior figures. The intense bombardment of Iranian assets and positions is ongoing, but that first blitzkrieg phase may already be coming to an end.

Patriot missile supplies are limited, and although it maintains a very high interception rate, its $4mn price tag compared to the $30,000 cost of a Shahed drone yields a cost-to-kill ratio of 130:1.

The asymmetry is a strategic trap that works to Iran’s advantage. The barrage of Iranian missiles and drones in the first few days inflicted limited damage on the US and Israeli forces; however, they didn't need to do any damage. By launching massive swarms of low-cost "kamikaze" drones, Iran is not just aiming for physical targets but is systematically emptying Western missile magazines. For every $1mn Iran spends on a drone swarm, the US and its allies must spend upwards of $100mn to stop it.

From a standing start, Ukraine has built up a drone production capacity that can churn out 4mn drones in 2025 and rising and has the capacity to make 8mn if more investment were provided by allies. This year, Bankova hopes to raise total production to 7mn.

However, Ukraine’s drones are smaller-scale and less powerful, primarily used on the battlefield against Russian infantry. Iran specialises in larger long-range attack drones (such as the Shahed-136/238), which are closer to cruise missiles than the small FPV drones used on the battlefield in Ukraine and so more effective in the current conflict where there no US boots on the ground.

Iran’s production of Shahed drones is estimated at around 400 per day, but the lower production rate is due to their larger size, longer range, and greater sophistication. The Iranian version is perfectly suited to the conflict it is now engaged in.

While Ukraine has had to learn on the job, Iran has been working on its drone industry since missile production and development was excluded from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal by the Obama administration to get the deal across the line.

As a result, Iran enjoys a significant cost-to-kill ratio advantage: a Tomahawk cruise missile costs $1.5mn-$2mn per missile, whereas a long-range Iranian missile costs about $20,000-$50,000 each, as written here previously in Bne IntelliNews.

The Tomahawks are at least 30-times more expensive than an Iranian drone. Iran’s drone production ratio per year to the US Tomahawk is even bigger: 750-times greater.

These differences mean that Trump’s call for the conflict be over in a month are not just a desirable political goal, they are a military imperative.

The US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies are reportedly already running low on interceptor ammo and there is talk of relocating air defence systems from the Indo-Pacific theatre to the Middle East.

The US is scrambling to "bend the cost curve" through initiatives like Replicator 2, which aims to mass-produce cheap, "attritable" interceptors, but these efforts are still playing catch-up to a rapidly evolving battlefield.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has also offered to step in with recently developed Ukrainian-made interceptor drones, but he is demanding a quid pro quo and expects Patriot missile ammo in exchange.

While the Pentagon has begun testing systems like the $35,000 LUCAS drone—a reverse-engineered clone of the Shahed—and Ukraine is successfully deploying $2,500 interceptor drones like the Octopus, Western procurement remains bogged down by decades of focus on high-end, exquisite technology, and the US has not launched mass production of any of these systems.

The Pentagon didn’t do its homework and launched Operation Epic Fury using the tactics from the last war, before it was ready to fight a modern drone-based war of attrition conflict.

“The US forces remain structurally unprepared for a sustained drone war where the winner isn't the one with the best technology, but the one who can afford to keep the lights on the longest,” Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of Hope For Ukraine.

India's Petronet LNG declares force majeure after QatarEnergy notice

India's Petronet LNG declares force majeure after QatarEnergy notice
/ Shaah Shahidh - Unsplash
By bno - Mumbai Office March 6, 2026

India’s biggest LNG importer, Petronet LNG (NSE: PETRONET), has received a Force Majeure notice from QatarEnergy (QE), and as a result, Petronet LNG has issued corresponding Force Majeure notices to companies that it supplies LNG to, the company said in a stock exchange filing on March 5.

Petronet’s offtakers include GAIL (NSE: GAIL), Indian Oil Corporation Limited (NSE: IOC) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE: BPCL). The company added that the likely impact of Force Majeure, which is currently an ongoing event, cannot be estimated at this point of time.

“The company is closely monitoring the developments and will keep the stock exchanges informed of any material updates in this regard,” Petronet stated. The company operates two LNG import terminals in India at Dahej and Kochi. 

In light of the ongoing war in the Middle East region involving Iran and Israel, vessels are presently unable to safely transit through the Strait of Hormuz to reach Ras Laffan, the loading port of QatarEnergy.

A disruption at Qatar’s LNG plant, which supplies nearly 40–50% of India’s LNG imports, could result in a short-term supply shock for the domestic gas market, CNBCTV18 reported, citing JM Financial analyst Dayanand Mittal. Gas utilities such as Gujarat Gas and GAIL may come under pressure as a result of higher spot LNG prices and reduced transmission volumes.

Mittal said that the disruption may last about a month, potentially affecting earnings and gas supply across the sector.

GAIL in a separate filing said that due to supply restrictions imposed by Petronet, the allocation of LNG quantities to GAIL has been reduced to zero with effect from March 4. GAIL said it is currently assessing the situation with respect to any supply curtailment that may need to be imposed on its downstream customers. LNG supplies to GAIL from other suppliers are currently unaffected, it said.

Reuters has reported that GAIL and Indian Oil have already informed their customers about the reduction of gas supplies due to the Petronet Force Majeure. To offset the shortfall, companies including Indian Oil, GAIL and Petronet LNG are preparing to float spot tenders to secure additional cargoes, Reuters added.