D.E.I.

How Workplaces Can Foster Inclusion For People With Disabilities

Copyright Cleared/Canva

April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review

Over 1.3 billion people are affected by a disability, which the United Nations defines as “those who have long-term physical, mental, intellectual or sensory impairments which in interaction with various barriers may hinder their full and effective participation in society on an equal basis with others”, with about 80% of those individuals of working age. Additionally, the acknowledgement of neurodiversity in the workplace demands inclusion. Utilizing a huge dataset from Finland, a country with a high rate of employment for disabled people, Prof. Dr. Shiho Futagami (YOKOHAMA National University) et al. are paving the way to provide more job opportunities and inclusion for people with disabilities.

Prof. Dr. Shiho Futagami et al. published their research results ‘Work ability, inclusion, and human resource development of disabled people’ in Human Resource Development International (Q1: CiteScore Best Quartile, high impact: 4.4 (2024) 5 year IF）which is a globally prestigious international journal in the field of human resource development.

The respondents for the analysis are 6,214 people, with 52.4% males and 47.6% females. Of these respondents, 57.7% are under 40, with the remainder over 40. Nearly a third of these respondents have received only a basic education while the rest have some degree of secondary education. 65.5% of respondents report having one or more prolonged (longer than six months) illnesses, physical or psychological.

This study consists of eight hypotheses aimed to clarify the link between the work ability, inclusion and human resource development (HRD) of disabled people. For reference, “work ability” is defined as “how good a worker is at present and will be in the near future, and how they are able to do their work with respect to their work demands, and the health and mental resources”.

The hypotheses include (1) the educational background of disabled people determines their work ability, as well as (2) the physical functioning, (3) work ability of disabled people is improved by HRD, (4) the perception of inclusion by disabled people is lower compared to non-disabled people, (5) the inclusion of disabled people leads to their improved work ability, (6) the mental well-being of disable people leads to their improved work ability, (7) the work ability of disabled people is improved by upgrading their skills and finally, (8) the improved work ability of disabled people leads to their improved employability.


The research supports all hypotheses except two: the potential link between the educational background of the disabled people and work ability (hypothesis one) and the mental well-being of disabled people leading to their improved work ability (hypothesis six). The supporting hypotheses emphasize the importance of inclusion and an interdisciplinary approach to create an HRD framework to improve the work ability of disabled people.

“Our study suggests that the work ability, the inclusion perceived by disabled people themselves and human resource development (HRD) are three important elements for promoting disability inclusion,” said professor and researcher Shiho Futagami.

The resulting confluence of work ability, inclusion and an HRD framework provides a basis to reduce not only the barriers of entry into the workplace, but barriers that might have previously prevented disabled individuals from continued success in a job or career.

Prof. Dr. Shiho Futagami et al. wish to further investigate the dynamic interaction between these three elements in addition to analyzing different kinds of HRD variables that can affect work ability. Since this study focuses more on the discussion of these dynamics and HRD, actual practices using these frameworks will need to be implemented.

New Book Examines Rise Of Global Megacities

April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review


Jakarta has grown from 150,000 residents in the first half of the 20th century to more than 31 million in 2024. This explosive growth has reshaped the Jakarta metropolitan area, presented complex challenges and highlighted the critical role of urban planning. 

For Deden Rukmana, professor and director of the Master of City and Regional Planning (MCRP) in the Department of Public Affairs and Planning (PAPL) at The University of Texas at Arlington, understanding and documenting this transformation is not only an academic pursuit, but also an urgent global priority.

Dr. Rukmana is the coeditor of the newly published book, Growth of a Megacity: Planning Jakarta in the Post-Suburban Era, alongside Sonia Roitman, Associate Professor at the University of Queensland, Australia. Published by the University of Hawai’i Press, the book provides one of the most comprehensive English-language analyses of Jakarta’s contemporary urban evolution.

“Jakarta represents a critical case for understanding the future of urbanization,” Rukmana said. “As megacities in the Global South continue to drive population growth worldwide, planners need approaches that reflect local realities rather than relying solely on models developed elsewhere.”
Rethinking urban growth in the Global south

Rather than focusing on traditional suburban growth, the book analyzes Jakarta through the lens of post-suburbanization, a process in which development extends beyond the city’s core while remaining deeply interconnected with it. The book highlights how rapid expansion, infrastructure politics, spatial fragmentation and socio-environmental challenges shape Jakarta’s expansion.


The volume shows that although Jakarta exhibits post-suburban characteristics, its urban core continues to attract population and investment, resulting in uneven patterns of inclusion, displacement, and redevelopment across the metropolitan region.

Organized into four thematic sections—economic development, environmental challenges, housing and public space, and gentrification and displacement- the book provides a timely and accessible analysis for scholars, policymakers and practitioners engaged with Jakarta’s urban future.
From broader research to a focused volume

The book builds on Dr. Rukmana’s broader research agenda on urbanization in Indonesia. Beginning in 2019, he and Sonia coedited The Routledge Handbook of Urban Indonesia. This project broadened English-language urban scholarship by examining nineteen Indonesian cities of varying sizes and historical trajectories.

“During that process, we saw a large number of submitted abstracts in Jakarta,” Dr. Rukmana explained. “Despite its global importance, there were major knowledge gaps about how the city actually functions and evolves.”

Motivated by that gap, the editors set out to provide new data, fresh perspectives, and deeper analysis of Jakarta’s development. The resulting volume contributes to ongoing academic and policy debates about the future of megacities in the Global South.

“I hope readers gain a deeper understanding of Jakarta as a complex megacity influenced by post-suburban dynamics and marked by uneven patterns of growth, inclusion, and exclusion,” Rukmana said. “More broadly, this book encourages readers to reconsider traditional urban models and to adopt context-sensitive, integrated approaches to planning megacities in the Global South.”
A Collaborative scholarly effort

Growth of a Megacity features contributions from a group of scholars, planners, urban designers and architects. Rukmana proudly acknowledges the contributions of:


Hana Afifah Amini, Adiwan Aritenang, Ferdinand P. Boedhiarto, Julia Crowley, Ayşın Dedekorkut-Howes, Santy Paulla Dewi, Erwin Fahmi, Rendy A. Diningrat, Raphaella Dewantari Dwianto, Tommy Firman, Deffany Rosa Firstina, Priza Marendraputra, Delik Hudalah, Karina Putri, Dinar Ramadhani, Erie Sadewo, Rukuh Setiadi, Paulus Bagus Sugiyono, Tessa Talitha, and Diana Zerlina.

He also expressed appreciation for the support of colleagues and leadership within UTA’s College of Architecture, Planning and Public Affairs (CAPPA) and Department of Public Affairs and Planning (PAPL).

The Volcano That Slept For 100,000 Years Was Never Truly Quiet

April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review

For more than 100,000 years, the Methana volcano in Greece appeared dormant. No lava, no explosions, no ash clouds. It appeared extinct – like many other volcanoes today. An international research team led by ETH Zurich has reconstructed a detailed, long-term history of the Methana volcano. Their conclusion is striking: While Methana appeared silent at the surface, enormous amounts of magma were steadily accumulating deep within its magma chambers.

Crystals as witnesses of the past

To uncover the volcano’s hidden activity, researchers focused on tiny minerals called zircon. These crystals form inside magma reservoirs in the Earth’s crust, as the magma is cooling, and act like natural time capsules, preserving information about when and under what conditions they grew.

“We can think of zircon crystals as tiny flight recorders. By dating more than 1,250 of them across 700,000 years of volcanic history, we’ve reconstructed the volcano’s inner life with a precision and statistical power that simply wasn’t possible a decade ago,” explains Olivier Bachmann, senior author and professor of Volcanology and Magmatic Petrology, ETH Zurich. “What we learned is that volcanoes can ‘breathe’ underground for millennia without ever breaking the surface.”

The results of the study show that magma was produced almost continuously beneath Methana. While there were active phases with volcanic eruptions, there was also one exceptionally long quiet period of more than 100,000 years, during which no eruptions occurred at all. Crucially, this was exactly the geological timeframe when zircon growth peaked, showing clear evidence of intense magma activity.
Why the magma never reached the surface

The researchers report that the magma supplying Methana’s upper crustal chamber was very water-rich – far more so than they expected, particularly during the periods of dormancy. The mantle beneath Methana is strongly influenced by materials carried down by a subducting tectonic plate – including ocean-floor sediments and substantial amounts of water. This process “hydrates” the mantle and makes magma production especially efficient. As the magma rises through the crust, it becomes water-saturated and creates bubbles. Water saturation triggers crystallisation which thickens the magma and reduces its mobility. Using physical and thermodynamic models, the researchers show that such magma effectively slows itself down during ascent. Paradoxically, the more magma supply at the depth can lead to fewer eruptions because the magma is too water-rich and too crystalline to reach the surface.


“We actually believe that many subduction zone volcanoes might be periodically fed by particularly wet primitive magma, something that the scientific community has not yet fully recognized. These so-called ‘superhydrous’ melts might be much more prevalent in subduction-related volcanoes worldwide”. Lead author, Răzvan-Gabriel Popa, a volcanologist at ETH Zurich clarifies, “Methana is a great example where we have seen this effect clearly, but the impact of our findings can be generalized and widespread.”
‘Extinct’ may not mean safety

The study’s most important and unsettling message is clear: A prolonged period of volcanic silence does not mean a volcano is extinct. Instead, it could signal the buildup of a large and potentially more dangerous magma system. This has major implications for volcanic risk assessment. Volcanoes that have not erupted for tens of thousands of years are often labelled extinct and receive little monitoring. Methana shows how risky that assumption can be – since a volcano can remain quiet for millennia while quietly storing energy for future reawakening.

“For volcano hazard authorities, for example, in Greece, Italy, Indonesia, Philippines, South and North America, Japan, etc. this means re-evaluating the threat level of volcanoes that have been quiet for tens of thousands of years but show periodic signs of magmatic unrest,” says Bachmann.


Modern monitoring tools, such as measurements of earthquakes, ground deformation, and gas emissions, as well as acquiring high-resolution images of the underground by geophysical methods, can help detect these hidden processes before they escalate.

Study Quantifies Lake CO₂ Emissions And Their Rising Trend In China

Researchers conducting in situ measurements of lake CO2 fluxes in Poyang Lake, China CREDIT: QI Huang


April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review


Lakes are often described as “hotspots” in the global carbon cycle, yet quantifying their “breath”—the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) between water and the atmosphere—has long been notoriously difficult due to extreme variability across time and space and a shortage of long-term, high-resolution observational data. As a result, they have remained a “missing piece” in regional carbon accounting.

To address this gap, a research team led by Profs. HUANG Jiacong and GAO Junfeng from the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, together with collaborators from the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment and Jiangxi Normal University, has developed a novel high-resolution machine learning model based on a comprehensive national dataset, enabling high-precision prediction and spatial mapping of CO2 emissions from China’s lakes.

The findings were published in Science Advances.

The study estimates a substantial CO2 emission flux of 11.97 Tg C yr-1 from China’s lakes, offsetting roughly 12% of the nation’s total wetland carbon sink. While small lakes (<10 km2) exhibit higher emission intensities per unit area (0.29 g C m-2 d-1), large lakes (>50 km2) act as the dominant emission source, contributing 62% of the national total, with strong regional variability ranging from 33% to 79%.

Notably, the study quantifies how lake expansion has affected CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2021. Over this period, annual CO2 emissions from China’s lakes rose from 11.25 Tg C to 13.94 Tg C—a 24% increase. This upward trend accelerated after 2010 and is closely associated with sustained lake area expansion, which has ranged from 71 to 462 km2 per year across regions.

The researchers further investigated how extreme climatic events influence lake CO2 emissions. Both extreme heatwaves and intense rainfall events were found to trigger sharp increases in CO2 fluxes, by up to 48% in some regions. With climate change increasing the frequency and severity of such extremes, lake CO2 emissions are projected to continue rising.

“This study underscores the value of high-resolution modeling and long-term observations for carbon accounting at regional and national scales,” said Prof. HUANG, corresponding author of the study. “Our findings highlight an urgent need for sustained, high-resolution monitoring to refine lake carbon budgets and inform more effective climate mitigation policies.”

ALASKA

Arctic Oil And Gas Exploitation Overlaps Heavily With Indigenous Lands, Sensitive Ecosystems, And Key Wildlife Habitats

File photo of the trans-Alaska pipeline and Dalton Highway are seen on July 4, 2014, in the Brooks Range area near the pipeline's Pump Station 4, about 270 miles south of Prudhoe Bay. 

(Photo by Bob Wick/U.S. Bureau of Land Management)


April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review


Arctic fossil fuel development shows significant overlaps with Indigenous communities and ecologically sensitive areas, which might support calls from some scientists to keep Arctic fossil fuels in the ground, according to a study published in the open-access journal PLOS One by Daniele Codato of the University of Padova, Italy and colleagues.

The Arctic is a frontline for fossil fuel development and climate change impact, long portrayed as a region with abundant undiscovered oil and gas resources, while warming at a rate nearly four times higher than the global average. Reducing these impacts requires a thorough assessment of these factors and their relationship to local human and wildlife communities, and ecosystems. In this study, researchers compiled information from a variety of open access databases to create the first atlas of Arctic oil and gas.

The data reveals over 512,000 square kilometers of exploited Arctic territory, an area roughly equivalent to Spain or Thailand. Over 7% of this area overlaps with ecologically protected regions, and over 13% overlaps with the ranges of all three key Arctic species considered in the study: polar bears, yellow-billed loons, and caribou. Furthermore, approximately 73% of the exploited territory overlaps with Indigenous Peoples’ Lands. These overlaps highlight numerous areas of potential ecological disruption and social tension, particularly in heavily-exploited regions such as the North Slope of Alaska and the Yamal Peninsula of Russia.

The authors suggest that this data makes a strong case in favor of recent proposals to declare the Arctic a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Zone, and for future decisions about Arctic fossil fuel extraction to focus on the inclusion of Indigenous perspectives and the safeguarding of regional ecosystems. The authors also note that future studies should include more fine-grained scale data and analyses about regions of concern such as Alberta and Alaska, as well as data on species of specific importance to Indigenous livelihoods.

The authors add: “Our atlas reveals the sheer scale of Arctic oil and gas development: over 500,000 square kilometers are already covered by licenses—an area comparable to Spain. We identified more than 44,000 wells, nearly 40,000 kilometers of pipelines, and almost 2 million kilometers of seismic lines across the Arctic. Moreover, over 73% of Arctic oil and gas concessions overlap with Indigenous Peoples’ lands, raising critical questions about spatial justice and governance.”

“Identifying where oil and gas extraction overlaps with ecological and cultural priorities helps define not only ‘when’, but also ‘where’ fossil fuels should remain underground. If climate goals are to be met, the Arctic may be one of the regions where fossil fuels should remain in the ground. The Arctic Atlas provides new spatial evidence that strengthens the case for an Arctic fossil fuel non-proliferation zone.”

“A recurring challenge in our research is the lack of accessible and integrated data on the oil and gas industry. In the Arctic, information on oil and gas is highly fragmented, so one of our main goals was to systematize these scattered sources into a single open tool that can support future research and decision-making.”

Wildfire-Driven Deforestation Rates In California Among Highest In World

April 23, 2026
By Eurasia Review


California has one of the highest rates of wildfire-driven deforestation in the world, and the trend has accelerated over the past three decades, according to a study from the University of California, Davis.

The study, published in the journal Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, assessed the state’s wildfire-driven deforestation rates and reforestation needs between 1991 and 2023. It found that deforestation in California’s conifer-dominated forests increased exponentially over the study period, taking place primarily on USDA Forest Service and private lands. Meanwhile, reforestation efforts are not keeping pace with the losses.

Reforestation needs were minimal in the early 1990s, rose sharply in the early 2000s and surged after 2020. During that time, California lost between 6% and 11% of its conifer forests. Multiple big-fire years caused deforestation rates to rise to between 0.25% and 0.47% per year between 2001 and 2023. That is substantially higher than the global average of 0.15% per year.

“Those rates are right up there with the world’s leaders in fire-driven forest loss, like Russia, Portugal, Greece, Bolivia and even Canada,” said senior author Hugh Safford, a forest and fire ecologist with the UC Davis Environmental Science and Policy department. “In the case of California, the rate is also accelerating rapidly. A couple more big-fire years like 2020 or 2021, and we could be looking at large-scale loss of conifer forests over wide swaths of the state.”

Estimating forest loss and growth

For the study, scientists combined remotely sensed fire severity data with a tool called POSCRPT (Postfire Spatial Conifer Regeneration Prediction Tool) that was developed by UC Davis, UC Berkeley and the Forest Service. They were able to estimate how much forest was actually lost by incorporating both tree mortality and projected five-year postfire seedling densities.

Forest restoration needs were assessed under scenarios of moderate, high and acute priority. Moderate scenarios incorporated only a tree mortality measure, while the other scenarios incorporated both tree mortality and the probability that seedlings will regenerate.

The team found that on Forest Service lands only about 8% of high-priority areas and less than 3% of acute-priority areas were reforested during the entire study period. Between 2016 and 2023, only about 1% of deforested Forest Service lands were replanted. In contrast, on private industrial timberlands, more than 90% of severely burned lands were replanted.

Fire-driven reforestation needs

The state’s greatest reforestation needs are in Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forests and Northern California Douglas-fir forests, especially areas hit by the massive 2020 and 2021 wildfires: the northern Inner Coast Ranges, the northern Sierra Nevada–southern Cascades, and the southwestern Sierra Nevada.

While middle-elevation forests experienced the greatest losses, high-elevation forests showed the fastest increases in deforestation.

The paper noted that federal budgets and staffing for reforestation have been dropping for decades, even as drought, wildfire and pest outbreaks increase. This is in contrast to Canada, where similar trends have led to increases in budgets for reforestation science and management. Without sustained, substantial intervention, current restoration efforts will not be enough to prevent the long-term transformation of California’s forest ecosystems.

“California has much more fire-driven forest loss than people understand,” Safford said. “It’s high even by international standards. It’s happening more in high-elevation, climate-sensitive areas that protect our watersheds, and there’s almost nothing being done about it. If commensurate actions aren’t taken soon, we’re going to lose huge areas of conifer forest and the ecosystem services those forests provide.”

Georgian Government Gets US President’s Attention With Tbilisi Tower Deal

April 23, 2026 
By Eurasianet

(Eurasianet) — The Trump Administration has largely ignored the Republic of Georgia diplomatically since returning to power in January 2025. The Trump Organization is another story.

The Trump Organization, the family real estate firm, has announced plans to build a 70-storey Trump Tower in the Georgian capital Tbilisi. It would be the tallest building not just in the country, but in the entire Caucasus region.

Critics describe the Trump Tower idea as a cynical ploy by Georgian Dream officials to get the US president’s attention at a time when they face potential sanctions from the United States and European Union over the government’s rapid embrace of authoritarian practicesand pro-Russian policies. Georgia also faces the prospect of being economically bypassed by TRIPP, or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a planned trade link involving Armenia and Azerbaijan that is envisioned as a key transport node in the Middle Corridor trade network connecting Central Asia and Europe.

The Tbilisi tower project will be a joint venture involving four Georgian firms, Archi Group, Biograpi Living, Blox Group, and Finvest Georgia, alongside the US-based Sapir Organization, a longtime Trump partner.

Archi Group’s founder, businessman Ilia Tsulaia, previously served as an MP for the Georgian Dream party, while Biograpi Living is part of the Wissol Group, owned by the Pkhakadze brothers, who have faced repeated scrutiny over their support for the government.

Georgian Dream leaders have trumpeted the project as a vote of confidence in Georgia’s economy and governance. The speaker of Georgia’s rubber-stamp parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, said that “when Trump’s company enters Georgia under its own brand, it means it has a strong understanding of the existing environment. Naturally, Trump and his company are careful to protect the reputation they have built.”

Critics see it very differently. Roman Gotsiridze, a former head of the National Bank and MP, called the project politically motivated. “This is Bidzina Ivanishvili’s attempt to bribe Trump… a sanctioned Ivanishvili is looking for ways to save himself,” he said, referring to the Georgian Dream party’s founder and funder.

“Using businessmen he [Ivanishvili] has backed, he has created a consortium in which, of course, the largest share will indirectly be Ivanishvili’s money, and with this idea they are approaching Trump,” Gotsiridze added.

An April 18 report by The Wall Street Journal described the Tbilisi project as “another example of how the Trump family firm has changed its approach to overseas business during the second Trump administration,” adding that “critics say that such overseas ventures raise potential conflicts of interest.”

Eric Trump, president’s son and executive vice president of the company, said the development would bring the firm’s “globally recognized standard of excellence” to Georgia.

This is not Trump’s first attempt to plant a flag in Georgia. In 2012, with the encouragement of then-president Mikheil Saakashvili, the Trump Organization announced plans for a development in the Black Sea resort city of Batumi. After years of relative inactivity, the organization backed out in 2017, after Trump gained the White House for the first time.

The Batumi project was subsequently taken over by the Georgian Co-Investment Fund, backed by Ivanishvili, and rebranded as the Silk Tower. It is expected to be completed by the end of the decade.

At the time, Ivanishvili, who then as now viewed Saakashvili as his arch-political enemy, derided the Batumi project. “Trump has made no investment in Georgia … they used it, both of them [Saakashvili and Trump] pulled off a clever trick,” he said in 2012. “They paid Trump money, and Saakashvili, as a master of deception, took advantage of it.”

The new tower is planned for Tbilisi’s central Saburtalo district, on land that, according to Georgian Business Media, is still officially owned by the Cartu Foundation, which belongs to Ivanishvili.

Over the past year, the Trump administration has largely continued its predecessor’s approach, freezing out Georgian Dream over its authoritarian drift. When Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze on March 30, their first ever call, the ruling party rushed to frame it as a breakthrough. US Congressman Joe Wilson, Georgia’s most vociferous critic in the US Congress, told RFE/RL it was no “reset,” and that both Rubio and Trump “want only the best for the people of Georgia, which clearly means fair and free elections.”

Malaria Shaped Distribution Of Early Human Populations

April 23, 2026 
By Eurasia Review


Increasing evidence suggests that our species emerged through interactions between populations living in different parts of Africa, rather than from a single birthplace. Until now, however, most explanations for how those populations were distributed across the continent have focused on climate alone. The new research shows that disease—specifically malaria—also played a crucial role.

In a paper published this week in Science Advances, researchers from the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, the University of Cambridge, and colleagues investigated whether Plasmodium falciparum induced malaria shaped human habitat choice between 74,000 and 5,000 years ago, the critical period before humans dispersed widely beyond Africa and before agriculture dramatically altered malaria transmission.

The study shows that malaria, one of humanity’s oldest and most persistent pathogens, influenced habitat choice by pushing human groups away from high-risk environments and separating populations across the landscape. Over tens of thousands of years, this fragmentation shaped how populations met, mixed, and exchanged genes, helping create the population structure seen in humans today. The findings suggest that infectious disease was not simply a challenge early humans faced: it was a fundamental factor shaping the deep history of our species.

“We used species distribution models of three major mosquito complexes together with palaeoclimate models,” explains lead author Dr Margherita Colucci of the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology and the University of Cambridge. “Combining these with epidemiological data allowed us to estimate malaria transmission risk across sub-Saharan Africa.”

The researchers then compared these estimates with an independent reconstruction of the human ecological niche across the same region and time period. The results show that humans strongly avoided, or were unable to persist, in areas with high malaria transmission risk.


“The effects of these choices shaped human demography for the last 74,000 years, and likely much earlier,” says Professor Andrea Manica of the University of Cambridge, one of the senior authors of the study. “By fragmenting human societies across the landscape, malaria contributed to the population structure we see today. Climate and physical barriers were not the only forces shaping where human populations could live.”

“This study opens up new frontiers in research on human evolution,” adds Professor Eleanor Scerri of the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, also senior author of the study. “Disease has rarely been considered a major factor shaping the earliest prehistory of our species, and without ancient DNA from these periods it has been difficult to test. Our research changes that narrative and provides a new framework for exploring the role of disease in deep human history.”

The Iran War Is Breaking The Wrong Economies – Analysis

April 23, 2026
By Deepak Kumar


Wars are usually judged by who wins and who loses on the battlefield. The Iran War is not. The conflict surrounding Iran is producing a different kind of outcome. Its most significant effects are not confined to the countries fighting it. They are moving outward across markets, infrastructure and societies, reaching states that neither shape the conflict nor can control it.

The result is a war in which the heaviest economic consequences are being absorbed by those with the least influence over how it ends. That is not an unintended side effect. It reflects how modern conflict now interacts with an interconnected global system.

A war that moves through systems

The violence of the war may be concentrated in the Gulf, but the disruption is not. Pressure around the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a substantial share of global oil and liquefied natural gas, is already translating into broader instability. Insurance premiums for shipping have surged. Tanker routes have been adjusted or delayed. Even limited disruptions have forced rerouting through longer and more expensive corridors. Energy markets have responded with volatility that reflects not only current supply risks, but uncertainty about how far escalation could extend.

These effects are not linear. They move through the same channels that sustain the global economy. Energy flows, maritime logistics, financial markets and supply chains react simultaneously, but unevenly. A disruption at one point in the system propagates outward, reshaping conditions elsewhere.

The Gulf states are encountering the first layer of this pressure. Infrastructure, once treated as secure, is now exposed. Oil facilities, ports and shipping terminals are at increasing risk. More critically, desalination plants, which provide the majority of potable water in several Gulf countries, have emerged as potential vulnerabilities. Any sustained disruption to these systems would not only affect economic output but also the basic functioning of daily life.

These states are not directing the war, but they cannot distance themselves from it. Their exposure is structural, rooted in geography and infrastructure. Beyond the Gulf, the effects become less visible but more complex.

South and Southeast Asia are absorbing the next layer of impact. Countries such as India, which rely heavily on imported energy, are particularly sensitive to even modest price increases. Currency pressure intensifies as import costs rise; inflation begins to move; governments face difficult trade-offs between stabilizing prices and maintaining fiscal discipline. These pressures do not appear all at once; they build gradually, often unnoticed at first.

Recent movements in global oil prices have already begun to translate into higher domestic costs across several Asian economies. Airlines face rising fuel expenses, manufacturing sectors dependent on energy inputs adjust output and households encounter rising costs that are not immediately traceable to the conflict, but are directly linked to it.

There is also a human dimension that remains largely overlooked. Millions of migrant workers from South Asia are employed across the Gulf. Their income supports families and local economies back home. As uncertainty increases, their position becomes more precarious. Flight routes are disrupted; insurance premiums increase; mobility becomes more constrained at the very moment when flexibility is most needed. They are not participants in the conflict. Yet they are embedded within its consequences.

Further east, the constraints tighten. Japan and South Korea sit at the far end of the same energy chain, but with far less flexibility. Their dependence on Middle Eastern energy imports is not marginal; it is structural. A significant portion of their oil imports passes through the same contested maritime routes. When supply tightens, they are forced into competition for alternative sources, often at higher cost.

This has immediate effects: Industrial output begins to slow, petrochemical production adjusts, and financial markets react to uncertainty in input costs and output expectations. What begins as an energy shock extends into industrial and financial systems. The war is not expanding geographically in the traditional sense; it is expanding through systems.
The economies that carry the burden

The most consequential aspect of this dynamic is not simply the scale of disruption, but its distribution. The countries bearing the greatest economic pressure are not those setting the conflict’s trajectory. They are not determining strategy or shaping escalation. Yet their economies, infrastructure and populations are directly exposed to the consequences.

 What emerges from this is a structural imbalance that is difficult to correct.

The US, despite its central role, is relatively insulated from the immediate energy shock. As a major energy producer, it experiences price fluctuations differently. Domestic pressure exists, but it does not threaten systemic stability in the same way. Iran, for its part, is already operating under long-term economic constraints. Additional pressure intensifies existing challenges, but does not fundamentally alter the conditions under which it operates. Israel’s exposure is primarily security-driven, rather than rooted in systemic economic vulnerability of the same kind.

The most severe pressures are concentrated elsewhere. They are felt most acutely in economies that are deeply integrated into global systems, but lack the capacity to shape them. This is where the situation becomes more complex than it initially appears.

If energy prices continue to rise, governments across affected regions will be forced to respond. Subsidies may be expanded; strategic reserves may be drawn down; emergency fiscal measures may be introduced to stabilize domestic conditions. These responses are not cost-free; they shift pressure into financial systems.

Several large Asian economies hold substantial foreign-currency reserves, including US treasuries. In periods of sustained stress, the liquidation of such assets can serve as a tool for maintaining domestic stability. If undertaken at scale, these actions would transmit pressure into global financial markets, affecting borrowing costs, liquidity and investment conditions.

A regional conflict begins to generate global financial consequences. At that point, the distinction between participant and observer begins to weaken.

A system that redistributes risk

What is unfolding is not simply economic disruption. It is a redistribution of risk across an interconnected system. Energy markets are beginning to fragment, as different regions experience different price pressures and supply constraints. Supply chains are adjusting, but not uniformly. Some states are able to absorb shocks through reserves and diversification. Others face more immediate constraints. The longer the conflict persists, the more these differences widen.

Recent developments suggest that even limited escalation can have disproportionate effects. Temporary disruptions to shipping routes have already extended delivery times and increased costs. Insurance markets have adjusted faster than physical supply, amplifying the economic impact. Financial markets are reacting not only to current conditions, but to the possibility of further escalation.

Over time, this begins to resemble a feedback loop. Uncertainty drives cost. Cost drives policy response. Policy response introduces new distortions. The system does not stabilize quickly. It adjusts, but unevenly and often with delay. This is not a temporary disturbance that will dissipate once the conflict slows. It reflects a deeper shift in how war interacts with global systems. Conflict is no longer contained by geography. It is transmitted through connectivity.

The wrong economies

The countries most exposed to the economic consequences are not the ones making strategic decisions or defining objectives. Yet they are the ones managing inflation, stabilizing currencies, protecting supply chains and absorbing social pressure. They carry the cost without controlling the cause. This is increasingly how modern conflict operates. Power is exercised in one place. Consequences are distributed across many. The further a country is from the center of decision-making, the more likely it is to experience the conflict as an external shock rather than a controllable process. And the longer the war continues, the more entrenched this pattern becomes.

Wars are still fought between states, but their effects are no longer confined to them. They move through the systems that connect economies, societies and markets. And in that movement, the burden does not fall where power is concentrated; it falls where exposure is greatest. That is why this war is not just reshaping the balance of power; it is reshaping the distribution of vulnerability. And in doing so, it is placing the heaviest burden on the economies least able to shape the outcome.

This article was published by Fair Observer

Deepak Kumar is a geopolitical analyst focusing on power transitions, deterrence theory, and strategic competition in the 21st century.

 

Half of Argentina's children still poor as austerity bites

/ unsplashFacebook

TwitterLinkedInTelegramFlipboardFeedly

By bnl editorial staff April 23, 2026

More than half of children and adolescents in Argentina were living in poverty in 2025, with nearly a third going without adequate food, according to a report by the Catholic University of Argentina (UCA), underscoring the uneven social impact of President Javier Milei's austerity-driven economic overhaul.

The study found that child poverty stood at 53.6% last year, down from 59.7% in 2024, while extreme poverty affected 10.7% of minors, based on data from the Argentine Social Debt Survey.

Despite the decline, which coincided with a broader macroeconomic stabilisation under Milei's belt-tightening programme, the report cautioned against interpreting the figures as a lasting improvement. "We must not confuse a temporary improvement with the solution to a structural problem," the UCA said.

Milei took office in December 2023 promising radical economic reform by slashing public spending, eliminating the fiscal deficit and deregulating markets. These measures initially deepened Argentina's recession and sent inflation spiralling before a gradual stabilisation took hold. While dollar reserves improved and foreign investment began to recover under the libertarian government, the peso's effective depreciation and deep cuts to food, energy and transport subsidies fell hardest on low-income households, a distributional toll the UCA data suggest has not yet been reversed.

Using a multidimensional poverty index that includes access to food, housing, sanitation, healthcare, education and information, the report concluded that deprivation remains widespread. Food insecurity affected 28.8% of children and adolescents, including 13.2% facing severe conditions, above levels recorded for most of the previous decade.

The findings also pointed to record levels of distress-driven reliance on food assistance, reaching 64.8% of children. Coverage of the Universal Child Allowance, a flagship cash transfer scheme, reached 42.5% of minors in 2025, slightly below the previous year.

Healthcare access has also deteriorated, with nearly one in five minors failing to see a doctor or dentist at all in 2025 for financial reasons, a figure that rises to more than a quarter among teenagers. The obstacle is financial rather than logistical, the report's lead researcher Ianina Tuñón noted: even nominally free public healthcare carries indirect costs when parents must skip work to accompany their children. Dental care is the most acutely neglected area, with roughly one in six children lacking any access to a dentist, a neglect Tuñón said has lasting consequences for children's nutrition, self-esteem and overall wellbeing.

Mental health represents a further dimension of the crisis. More than one in six children between the ages of five and 17 showed signs of sadness or anxiety as perceived by their parents or guardians, rising to over a fifth among adolescents, with girls disproportionately affected. Children exhibiting such symptoms were nearly twice as likely to be assessed by their families as not learning effectively at school.

Educational quality also emerged as a concern, with nearly a third of children attending schools where teachers are frequently absent or classes regularly cancelled, a proportion that climbs to 44% among pupils from lower-income households and in the greater Buenos Aires area. One in ten children said they did not enjoy attending school, a figure that rose to more than one in six among adolescents from the poorest strata.

"These data reflect the persistence of structural deficits that condition children's development," the UCA concluded, noting that while conditions have improved compared with 2024, they remain above levels seen before Argentina's recent economic crises. The researchers argued that the country's obligations to its children extend well beyond income support, encompassing healthcare and education failings that are amenable to policy action regardless of fiscal conditions.