Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta saw its economy shrink to 2004 levels on a per-person basis as the region’s population swelled, according to economist Charles St-Arnaud.

Alberta’s gross domestic product per capita fell 2.2 per cent in 2023, the second-fastest decline out of any Canadian province, St-Arnaud, chief economist at the Alberta Central association of credit unions, said in a note to investors. The drop was driven by population growth of 4.1 per cent, well outpacing the 1.5 per cent gain in economic activity.

Rising housing costs — particularly in Toronto and Vancouver — have driven tens of thousands of Canadians to Alberta in search of cheaper real estate. While the influx has bolstered parts of the economy, it has crowded schools and driven up costs for residents.


The province’s GDP per capita has fallen to $71,900 (US$52,545), the lowest level since 2010 when excluding the pandemic, and the same as 2004, “implying little to no increase in wealth in two decades,” he said. Despite the drop, Alberta continues to be the richest province in Canada, with per capita GDP exceeding the national measure by about 30 per cent, according to the note.

“While richer than the average Canadian, the decline in GDP per capita over the past two decades explains the general angst felt by Albertans,” St-Arnaud said in an email.