It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Assessing heat wave risk in cities as global warming continues
by Bob Yirka , Phys.org
Urban population dynamic further aggravates health risk under heat waves. Credit: Jiachuan Yang
A trio of researchers with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the University of Alabama in Huntsville and Arizona State University has shown that commuters traveling from the suburbs to cities in the future are going to encounter hotter than expected weather when in they reach their destination. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances, Jiachuan Yang, Leiqiu Hu and Chenghao Wang describe their study of the differences in temperature between actual readings and those that are forecast in urban areas and what it could mean for commuters as climate change continues.
Cities are hotter than outlying areas in the summer due to the materials that are used to make roads and buildings—asphalt, tar and cement hold a lot of heat. This has led to what scientists call theurban heat island effect. In this new effort, the researchers wondered what might happen to people in the future who live in the suburbs and commute into cities during heat waves as the planet becomes warmer. To find out, they accessed databases containingweather informationto learn more about differences between forecast and actual temperatures in cities. They also accessed databases of census information, including commuting patterns.
The researchers found that temperatures were typically hotter in cities during heat waves than were predicted by weather forecasters. They also found that the amount varied. Salt Lake City, for example, had the biggest difference—the city was on average 3.8 degrees C hotter during heat waves than was forecast. Overall, the researchers found that out of the 16 cities they studied, temperatures were on average 1.9 degrees C higher than what forecasters predicted. They note that such temperatures are significant because they represent heat events where temperatures are already on average 3.6 degrees C hotter than normal. They note that mortality (people dying) and morbidity (people getting sick) is already problematic in many cities during heat waves. They further note that the problem is only going to get worse due to climate change. They suggest that commuters of the future may face unexpected hazards as they travel from the relatively cooler suburbs to the much hotter cites. They suggest also that city planners need to take such scenarios into consideration as they look to contend with climate change.
Attribution of exposure temperature under heat waves. Credit: Jiachuan Yang
Stone throwing chimps appear to like the sound when it hits a tree
by Bob Yirka , Phys.org
Credit: CC0 Public Domain
A team of researchers from the Max Planck Institute of Evolutionary Anthropology and Aix-Marseille University has found evidence that suggests a group of chimpanzees who throw stones at trees appear to do so for the acoustical effect. In their paper published in the journal Biology Letters, the group describes experiments they carried out with stone throwing and trees and what they learned from them.
Three years ago, the team with this new effort discovered a surprising behavior by four groups of chimps in West Africa—they would individually lob stones attreeswhile simultaneously screaming. At the time, the researchers noted that the chimps appeared to have favorite trees for thestonelobbing—such trees had piles of stones at their bases. The fourchimpgroups were found in Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast and Guinea. The researchers noted that the behavior appeared to be localized, which suggested its purpose was a local tradition. At the time, the researchers suggested the stone throwing was likely part of some ritual, though it was not clear what purpose the ritual might have served.
In this new effort, the same group of researchers sought to find out why the chimps were throwing the stones at the trees. Suspecting that there might be an acoustical connection, they made their way to the same place they had witnessed the stone throwing three years before and identified the trees that were the targets of the stones. They then set up microphones to capture the sounds that of stones tossed at the trees—to speed things up, they lobbed the stones themselves. They also set up microphones at other trees and threw stones at them, as well. In all, the researchers tested 13 different kinds of trees under various scenarios, noting how muted or bright the sounds were, how percussive and how long the sound persisted.
The researchers report that they found that the chimpanzees tended to favor certain tree species with exposed roots—they also found that when rocks struck the roots of such trees, the sounds were lower and lasted longer than was the case for other trees. The group suggests their findings indicate the chimps throw the stones at the trees because of the sound it makes—though they are still no closer to understanding why the chimps would care.
More information: Ammie K. Kalan et al. Chimpanzees use tree species with a resonant timbre for accumulative stone throwing, Biology Letters (2019). DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2019.0747
The amorphous lump of birch bark tar found in in the child burial, contained within a bag hanging from a belt at her waist. Credit: Oxford Archaeology East
Scientists from the University of Bristol and the British Museum, in collaboration with Oxford Archaeology East and Canterbury Archaeological Trust, have, for the first time, identified the use of birch bark tar in medieval England—the use of which was previously thought to be limited to prehistory.
Birch bark tar is a manufactured product with a history of production and use that reaches back to the Palaeolithic. It is very sticky, and is water resistant, and also has biocidal properties mean that it has a wide range of applications, for example, as a multipurpose adhesive, sealant and in medicine.
Archaeological evidence for birch bark tar covers a broad geographic range from the UK to the Baltic and from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia.
In the east and north of this range there is continuity of use to modern times but in western Europe and the British Isles the use of birch bark tar has generally been viewed as limited to prehistory, with gradual displacement by pine tars during the Roman period.
The new identifications, reported today in the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports, came from two early medieval sites in the east of England.
The first was a small lump of dark material found in a child grave of the Anglo-Saxon period (440-530AD) in Cambridge (analysed by the Organic Geochemistry Unit, University of Bristol, for Oxford Archaeology East).
The other tar (analysed by scientists at the British Museum) was discovered coating the interior of a ceramic container associated with a 5th-6th century cemetery site at Ringlemere in Kent.
The child in the Cambridge Anglo-Saxon period grave was likely a girl, aged seven to nine years old, and she had a variety of grave goods, including brooches and beads on her chest, and a variety of artefacts, including an iron knife, a copper alloy girdle hanger and an iron ring, together with the dark lump of material, all contained within a bag hanging from a belt at her waist.
Skeleton from grave 293, Anglo-Saxon child burial. Credit: Oxford Archaeology East
The different contexts of the finds point to diverse applications of the material.
From pathological indicators on the child skeleton, the team surmise that the birch bark tar may have been used for medicinal purposes as birch bark tar has a long history in medicine, having antiseptic properties.
The tar in the ceramic vessel from Ringlemere might have been used for processing the tar or sealing the container.
Both of the tars were found to contain fatty material, possibly added to soften the tar, or, in the case of the container could indicate multiple uses.
Dr. Rebecca Stacey from the British Museum's Department of Scientific Research said: "The manufacturing and use of birch bark tar is well known is well known from prehistoric times but these finds indicate either a much longer continuity of use of this material than has been recognised before or perhaps a reintroduction of the technology in eastern regions at this time."
Dr. Julie Dunne, from the University of Bristol's School of Chemistry, added: "These results present the first identification of birch bark tar from early medieval archaeological contexts in the UK.
"Interestingly, they are from two different contexts, one in a ceramic pot, which suggests it may have been used to process birch bark into tar and the other as an 'unknown' lump in a child grave of the Anglo-Saxon period. The pathological indicators on the child skeleton suggests the birch bark tar may have been used for medicinal purposes."
Dr. Ian Bull, also from the University of Bristol's School of Chemistry, said: "This is a great example of how state-of-the-art chemical analyses have been able to re-characterise an otherwise mundane object as something of extreme archaeological interest, providing possible insights into medicinal practices in the Middle Ages."
FNORD What conspiracy theories have in common with fiction – and why it makes them compelling stories
Storytelling: the power of a good narrative can be persuasive. Credit: Billion Photos/Shutterstock
In an era dominated by "fake news" and disinformation, conspiracy theories are coming to play an increasingly influential role in modern politics. During the recent impeachment hearings in the US, for example, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill warned that "fictional narratives" pushed by Russia were undermining American security. But what's the difference exactly between a conspiracy theory and a legitimate news story? Does "fictional" in this sense simply mean fabricated? My ongoing research suggests there is more to it than this—something which can explain why conspiracy theories can gain such a powerful hold over the public imagination.
The narrative that Hill was referring to in her impeachment testimony is what's known as "Crowdstrike", a conspiracy theory named after a US cybersecurity company, that alleges it was Ukraine rather than Russia that hacked the Democratic National Committee's email server in 2016, and that Ukraine, along with the Democrats, subsequently went about framing Russia for interfering in the election.
A day after Hill's testimony the US president, Donald Trump, again trotted out precisely these same allegations in an interview with the TV show Fox & Friends. In doing so he made a string of assertions which are provably false. Reports from both the US intelligence community and special counsel Robert Mueller have, after all, concluded that it was Russia who actively interfered in the 2016 election, while there's no evidence of Ukraine having any part in it.
As Hill noted, the whole Crowdstrike theory seems to be a clear "effort to legitimise an alternative narrative that the Ukrainian government is a US adversary, and that Ukraine—not Russia—attacked us in 2016".
Powerful forms of narrative
Conspiracy theories are used in disinformation campaigns in two main ways. On the one hand, the simple act of citing them can be a way of legitimising views you don't like. For instance, the British journalist Carole Cadwalladr's investigations into various shady tactics used by the Leave campaign in 2016 EU referendum are regularly dismissed as nothing more than conspiracies by her enemies.
But conspiracy theories are also used as counter-narratives to confuse the actual nature of events and, in doing so, push a particular ideological view of the world.
It's worth noting that all explanations operate as a type of narrative. A basic dramatic narrative has three steps to it: (1) a person embarks upon a (2) journey into a hostile environment which (3) ultimately leads to self-knowledge.
This same basic structure applies to explanations: (1) you want to discover some information; (2) you find a way of discovering it; and (3) your world is changed as a result.
But, as recent research I've been doing shows, there are several ways in which conspiracy theories draw directly on elements of storytelling that are found in fiction rather than factual narratives.
As in fictional narratives, all the elements in a conspiracy theory are linked through clear lines of cause and effect. There's a reason for everything and, if that reason isn't immediately forthcoming, it's because it's being purposefully hidden as part of the conspiracy. This differs from real life of course, where events often include large amounts of happenstance, inexplicable phenomena and a general murkiness and confusion.
Same story
Then there's the way that conspiracy theories are all underpinned by the same basic archetype: what the writer Christopher Booker calls the "overcoming the monster" story. In this, a single or a small group of rebels take on the overwhelming forces of a corrupt and malevolent establishment which is threatening the wellbeing of society.
Crowdstrike slots snuggly into this formula. Corrupt forces within the political establishment (in this case the Democratic Party) are presented as betraying the will of the people—represented by the election of Trump in 2016. The ongoing impeachment process against the president therefore threatens the welfare of the US as an independent democratic nation. As the political theorist Jan-Werner Muller has noted, this type of conspiracy theory is structurally embedded in the logic of all populist movements in the way their leaders regularly argue that the will of the people can only be denied through underhand and corrupt ways.
Conspiracy theories always fixate on a very simple story which acts as a fable for their overarching worldview. They usually take an issue of real significance—such as foreign influence in domestic elections—but, in order to explain it, they latch on to one succinct story which bypasses the complexities and messiness of real-life phenomena and instead satisfies the logic of their overarching ideological narrative.
For Trump's supporters, the Crowdstrike story feels true because it's another example of the establishment's great witch hunt against him. As a story, it also has a coherent logic which the expanse and messiness of the facts lack. So, in both these ways, our familiarity with the way the world is mediated via fiction helps cast doubt on the way the world actually is.
Study shows there's nothing wacky about conspiracy theorists
Researchers at The Australian National University (ANU) have delved into the world of online conspiracy theories, showing most of the people behind them are actually pretty ordinary. The study looked at eight years of content, sifting through more than two billion comments posted on Reddit, including everything posted to the subreddit r/conspiracy.
R/conspiracy covers everything from UFOs and 9/11, to political conspiracy theories like 'pizzagate', which took off during the 2016 US election campaign.
But despite the subject matter, lead author of the study Dr. Colin Klein says conspiracy theorists aren't always a bunch of "crackpots wearing tinfoil hats".
"In the past before the rise of online forums like Reddit, we tended to only hear about the most extreme views, and those people tended to naturally be wary about talking to someone else about their beliefs," Dr. Klein said.
"These massive online forums paint a very different picture.
"The enormous set of comments we examined show many r/conspiracy users actually have more 'sensible' interests.
"For example conspiracy theories about police abuse of power are common. That's not so crazy.
"These people might believe false things, but with good reason—because similar things have happened in the past."
Professor Klein and his team also found that while there are subtle differences in the language used by those who end up posting on r/conspiracy, it's not necessarily enough to set them apart from other Reddit users.
"You might find they talk more about power or power structures, but their language is not that different from what ordinarily goes on in a forum like r/politics. You can't distinguish them that way.
"It's very easy to look at conspiracy theories and think they're super wacky, and the people who believe in them are crazy, but it's actually much more continuous with a lot of things we do every day.
"Low level theorising goes on a lot in everyday life, I'm inclined to think the stuff you see online is just a strong outgrowth of that."
According to Dr. Klein, forums like r/conspiracy can also be driven by current events.
"For example, Reddit attracted a whole new set of users following the election of US President Donald Trump.
"He also generates quite a lot of in-fighting amongst users. This is what makes it such great way to study social dynamics."
The data also reveals how people come to start posting on the r/conspiracy forum. The rise of Internet echo chambers is a factor—but there's much more at play.
"We followed people who started using Reddit and posted for about six months before they ended up on r/conspiracy," Dr. Klein said.
"You find two people who, for example, both started on the popular 'ask me anything' Reddit, and one ends up talking about conspiracies and one doesn't.
"People who go on to post on r/conspiracy also tend to be over-represented in the political forums, but it's not like they're hyper-focused.
"This suggests a more active process where people are seeking out sympathetic communities. This process of finding like-minded people is something we see a lot of on the Internet." The research has been published in the journal PLOS ONE.
Conspiracy theorists actively seek out their online communities
The term illuminati has been used since the late 15th century, and applied to various groups since then. It’s often discussed by conspiracy theorists, and is heavily referenced in pop-culture. Credit: Lettuce./Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
Why do people believe conspiracy theories? Is it because of who they are, what they've encountered, or a combination of both? The answer is important. Belief in conspiracy theories helps fuel climate change denial, anti-vaccination stances, racism, and distrust of the media and science.
In a paper published today, we shed light on the online world of conspiracy theorists, by studying a large set of user comments.
Our key findings are that people who eventually engage with conspiracy forums differ from those who don't in both where and what they post. The patterns of difference suggest they actively seek out sympathetic communities, rather than passively stumbling into problematic beliefs.
We looked at eight years of comments posted on the popular website Reddit, a platform hosting millions of individual forums called subreddits.
Our aim was to find out the main differences between users who post in r/conspiracy (a subreddit dedicated to conspiracy theories) and other Reddit users.
Using a technique called sentiment analysis we examined what users said, and where they said it, during the months before their first post in r/conspiracy.
We compared these posts to those of other users who started posting on Reddit at the same time, and in the same subreddits, but without going on to post in r/conspiracy.
We then constructed a network of the subreddits through which r/conspiracy posters traveled. In doing so, we were able to discover how and why they reached their destination.
Seeking the like-minded
Our research suggests there is evidence for the "self-selection" of conspiracy theorists. This means users appear to be seeking communities of people who share their views.
Users followed clear pathways to eventually reach r/conspiracy.
For example, these users were over-represented in subreddits focused on politics, drugs and internet culture, and engaged with such topics more often than their matched pairs.
We were also surprised by the diversity of pathways taken to get to r/conspiracy. The users were not as concentrated on one side of the political spectrum as people might expect. Nor did we find more anxiety in their posts, compared with other users.
Our previous research also indicated online conspiracy theorists are more diverse and ordinary than most people assume.
Where do the beliefs come from?
To dig deeper, we examined the interactions between where and what r/conspiracy users posted.
In political subreddits, the language used by them and their matched pairs was quite similar. However, in Reddit's very popular general-purpose subreddits, the linguistic differences between the two groups were striking.
So far, psychologists, sociologists, and philosophers have struggled to find anything distinct about conspiracy believers or their environments.
Social media can play a role in spreading conspiracy theories, but it mostly entrenches beliefs among those who already have them. Thus it can be challenging to measure and understand how conspiracy beliefs arise.
Traditional survey and interview approaches don't always give reliable responses. This is because conspiracy theorists often frame their life in narratives of conversation and awakening, which can obscure the more complex origins of their beliefs.
Furthermore, as philosopher David Coady pointed out, some conspiracy theories turn out to be true. Insiders do sometimes uncover evidence of malfeasance and cover-ups, as recent debates over the need for whistleblower protections in Australia reflect.
Echo chambers worsen the problem
Research about online radicalization from philosophy has focused on the passive effects of technologies such as recommended algorithms and their role in creating online echo chambers.
Our research instead suggests individuals seem to have a more active role in finding like-minded communities, before their interactions in such communities reinforce their beliefs.
These "person-situation interactions" are clearly important and under-theorized.
As the psychologist David C. Funder puts it: "Individuals do not just passively find themselves in the situations of their lives; they often actively seek and choose them. Thus, while a certain kind of bar may tend to generate a situation that creates fights around closing time, only a certain kind of person will choose to go to that kind of bar in the first place."
We suspect a similar process leads users to conspiracy forums.
A complex web of interactions
Our data indicates that conspiracy beliefs, like most beliefs, are not adopted in a vacuum. They are actively mulled over, discussed, and sought out by agents in a social (and increasingly online) world.
And when forums like 8chan and Stormfront are pushed offline, users often look for other ways to communicate.
These complex interactions are growing in number, and technology can amplify their effects.
YouTube radicalization, for example, is likely driven by interactions between algorithms and self-selected communities.
When it comes to conspiracy beliefs, more work needs to be done to understand the interplay between a person's social environment and their information seeking behavior.
And this becomes even more pressing as we learn more about the risks that come with conspiracy theorizing.
More information: Colin Klein et al. Pathways to conspiracy: The social and linguistic precursors of involvement in Reddit's conspiracy theory forum, PLOS ONE (2019). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0225098
Easy access to air travel has not only flattened the world, it also has flattened the bias toward investing locally, according to new research from the University of Notre Dame.
"Mobility of population is death to localism," as stated in the study "Investment in a Smaller World: The Implications of Air Travel for Investors and Firms," forthcoming in Management Science from Zhi Da, professor of finance in Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business. The paper is one of the first to quantify the impact of a "flattening world" on financial outcomes such as local investment bias and firm cost of capital.
"We find that investors in one location—say Austin, Texas—are more likely to invest in companies in a faraway location—for example, San Jose, California—when the two locations are better connected by air traffic," Da says. "This investment reduces the risk for Austin investors since they now hold a more diversified portfolio. It also reduces the cost of capital for a San Jose company by approximately 1 percent, as its funding sources become more diverse.
"More broadly," he explains, "our findings suggest that the mobility of the population and the resulting exchange of ideas and efficient capital flows are good for both the investors and the companies."
The team extends the literature on local investment bias where proximity is simply measured by geographic distance. They argue air travel has made geographic distance less relevant. For example, the distance between Chicago and San Francisco is more than twice that between South Bend and Tallahassee, but the former location pair is better connected than the latter due to the availability of direct flights.
"When we study the investment flow between two cities," Da says, "the air traffic is probably more relevant than the geographic distance."
One could argue the improved economic conditions in Austin and San Jose are what led to increased air traffic and investment flows between the two cities. Put simply, air traffic is the symptom, rather than the cause.
"We tackle this issue by focusing on the initiation of connecting flights (between Austin and San Jose) attributable to the 1997 opening of an air hub in Los Angeles," Da says. "In other words, we focus on variation in air traffic between two peripheral airports in a network whose connectivity is re-optimized in response to the addition of a central airport. Such variation is less likely driven by economic conditions of the peripheral cities hosting airports."
The result is confirmed, because investment at destinations served by these connecting flights increases after, not before, their initiation. The improved air traffic has a bigger impact on companies in smaller and less accessible cities. Their average cost of capital is reduced by 1.5 percent as a result compared with 1 percent for an average firm.
State of the climate over the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River in 2018
Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River. Credit: Wei Li
The Three Gorges Project of the Yangtze River is a large-scale water conservancy project that attracts worldwide attention. Since its completion, it has brought important social and economic benefits in flood control, power generation, shipping, water resource redistribution, and other aspects. However, the advantages and disadvantages of building such a large-scale water conservancy project, as well as its possible impact on the surrounding areas, including many issues related to its climate and environment, have been controversial for a long time. It is repeatedly questioned whenever rainstorms, floods, or droughts hit the area in or around the reservoir—people always question whether it was affected by the Three Gorges Project. Therefore, it is of great significance to provide timely, objective and effective climate monitoring information for understanding the climate situation of the Three Gorges project area and scientifically evaluating the climate change of the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River.
Since 1996, the National Climate Center has issued annual climate reports for the Three Gorges area of the Yangtze River, providing information on climate monitoring, meteorological disasters and climate impacts. "However, previous annual reports have not been officially released. We hope the publication of the annual climate report in 2018 will help people better understand the climate conditions in this region," says Dr. Chen, a researcher at the National Climate Center and the corresponding author of the report, which has recently been published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.
This report analyzes in detail the monitoring of various climate elements in the Three Gorges area of the Yangtze River in 2018 and compares them with historical observations. Also, the main weather and climate events of that year are introduced.
"The studies provide basic climate monitoring facts and data for further climate assessment and research," adds Dr. Chen. "With the accumulation of data and information, the climatic pattern of the reservoir area and its neighboring localities can be analyzed in detail, and the possible causes of extreme climatic events will be studied in the future."
Thawing permafrost affecting northern Alaska's land-to-ocean river flows
A caribou atop cliff bluffs that are eroding into a coastal lagoon along the Beaufort Sea on the North Slope of Alaska. A new analysis of the changing character of runoff, river discharge and other watershed features on the North Slope of Alaska reveals significant increases in the proportion of subsurface runoff and cold season discharge. Credit: UMass Amherst/M. Rawlins
A new analysis of the changing character of runoff, river discharge and other hydrological cycle elements across the North Slope of Alaska reveals significant increases in the proportion of subsurface runoff and cold season discharge, changes the authors say are "consistent with warming and thawing permafrost."
First author and lead climate modeler Michael Rawlins, associate professor of geosciences at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and associate director of its Climate Systems Research Center, says warming is expected to shift the Arctic from a surface water-dominated system to a groundwater-dominated system, with deeper water flow paths through newly thawed soils.
"Our model estimates of permafrost thaw are consistent with the notion that permafrost region ecosystems are shifting from a net sink to a net source of carbon," he says.
Freshwater and riverborne nutrients, mainly dissolved organic carbon, are transported to coastal estuaries and lagoons that lie at the land-sea interface, he explains. Field measurements of river discharge and other hydrological cycle elements in this region are sparse, which requires a modeling approach to quantify the land-ocean flows and their changing character. Details of this investigation into Arctic watersheds between Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) and just west of the Mackenzie River over the period 1981-2010 are in the current issue of the open access journal, The Cryosphere.
Rawlins explains, "Our model includes a state-of-the-art simulation of soil freeze-thaw cycles that allows us to better understand how permafrost thaw is influencing the magnitude and timing of hydrological flows. Our results point to greater impacts of warming across the Brooks Range, including increasing cold season (November to April) river discharge and a higher proportion of subsurface runoff."
Further, the changing terrestrial inflows may be influencing food web structure within the lagoons, he adds. "Local native communities rely on the fish and other resources in the lagoon ecosystem for their subsistence lifestyle. More than 150 species of migratory birds and waterfowl are supported by the region's food webs, and the lagoons are a rich source of fish for native communities." In particular, Barrow, Nuiqsut and Kaktvik hunters and residents rely on the high productivity of the Beaufort Lagoon systems to support fish and bird populations they live on, Rawlins points out.
In this study, the Permafrost Water Balance Model was validated against available measurements of river discharge and water held in the snow pack. Rawlins and colleagues are developing models and leveraging in situ and remote sensing measurements to better understand flows into the Beaufort Lagoons and predict how permafrost thaw and water cycle intensification will affect lagoon ecosystem dynamics in the future.
The researchers observed significant increases in cold season discharge, such as 134% of the long-term average for the North Slope, and 215% in the Colville River basin, for example. They report a significant increase in the ratio of subsurface runoff to total runoff for the region and for 24 of the 42 study basins, with the change most prevalent across the northern foothills of the Brooks Range. They also observed a decline in terrestrial water storage, which they attribute to losses in soil ice that outweigh gains in soil liquid water storage. The timing of peak spring freshet discharge, the flow of snowmelt into the sea, also has shifted earlier by 4.5 days.
The authors say findings have implications for water, carbon and nutrient cycling in coastal ecosystems and beyond. North Slope rivers are a primary source of new organic nutrients to the Beaufort Sea lagoons, with half of the annual freshwater export occurring in a two-week window following snowmelt in spring. As the climate warms, carbon that has been sequestered for thousands of years in permafrost soils thaws and is mobilized and transferred to river systems, with some emitted to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane, accelerating warming.
Ice sheet melting: estimates still uncertain, experts warn
The Antarctic ice sheet. Credit: Stephen Hudson / Wikipedia
Estimates used by climate scientists to predict the rate at which the world's ice sheets will melt are still uncertain despite advancements in technology, new research shows.
Theseice sheetestimates feed directly into projections of sea-level rise resulting from climate change. They are made by measuring how much material ice sheets are gaining or losing over time, known asmass balance, to assess their long-term health. Snowfall increases the mass of an ice sheet, while ice melting or breaking off causes it to lose mass, and the overall balance between these is crucial.
Although scientists now have a much better understanding of the melting behaviour of ice sheets than they did in previous decades, there are still significant uncertainties about their future melt rates, researchers found.
The new study, published in the scientific journal Earth Science Reviews, shows that despite recent advances in computer modelling of ice sheets in response to climate change, there are still key deficiencies in the models used to estimate the long-term health of ice sheets and related global sea-level predictions. Improving these estimates could prove vital to informing the scale of response needed to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change.
Edward Hanna, Professor of Climate Science and Meteorology at the University of Lincoln, UK, co-ordinated the research in co-operation with a leading international group of glaciologists.
Professor Hanna said: "The ice sheets are highly sensitive indicators of climate change, but despite significant recent improvements in data and knowledge, we still don't understand enough about how rapidly they are likely to lose mass during and beyond the current century.
"Enhanced observations of ice sheets, mainly from satellite data fed into improved computer simulations, are vital to help refine predictions of future sea-level rise that will result from continued global warming. They are urgently needed to assist climate adaptation and impact planning across the world."
In the last decade, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have overtaken thousands of smaller glaciers as the major contributors to rising sea levels—it is thought that combined, the sheets contain enough ice to raise global sea levels by as much as 65 metres. However, while some estimates project a contribution of as much as one and a half metres from Antarctica to global sea-level rise by 2100, others suggest only a few tens of centimetres contribution.
The researchers say there is a pressing need for further research that involves enhanced satellite and ground-based observations, together with more sophisticated, interactive computer models that combine ice masses, the atmosphere, ocean and solid Earth systems.
Their study involved analysis of recent estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, as well as highlighting recent advances and limitations in computer-model simulations of ice sheet change as an important basis for future work. The World Climate Research Programme, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and the International Arctic Science Committee part-sponsored the research.
Professor Hanna also contributed to a recent paper in the scientific journal Nature analysing the Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance. That study, involving 96 polar scientists, showed that in the last decade, Greenland has lost ice seven times faster than in the 1990s. This tracks a high-end global warming scenario, with tens of millions more people being exposed to coastal flooding by 2100.
Google Inc. has launched a beta version of an online portal called Wildlife Insights—its purpose is to help wildlife managers around the globe manage the wildlife in their part of the planet. The AI-based application lets ...
Nearly half of Finnish pastors have a positive attitude towards euthanasia
One in five pastors would approve of euthanasia as part of Finnish health care, and up to half of pastors have a positive attitude towards it, a new Ph.D. thesis from the University of Eastern Finland shows.
"This is surprising, considering that Christian churches and communities tend to oppose euthanasia. Earlier studies have also shown that religious professionals are usually against euthanasia," Ph.D. Student Miia Kontro says.
Roughly half of Finnish pastors have a positive attitude towards euthanasia when it is not part of Finnish health care. However, 50 percent of pastors do not approve of euthanasia under any circumstances. Although the attitudes held by pastors are clearly more negative than those of nurses and the general public, the proportion of pastors who approve of euthanasia is nevertheless significant.
Completed in the field of practical theology, the doctoral dissertation analyzed the attitudes of pastors of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland towards euthanasia, as well as factors contributing to those attitudes. The study shows that among pastors, the probability of an eventual death is a factor that makes them more inclined to approve of euthanasia. However, mere human suffering as a subjective experience is not strong enough a ground for approval.
Two in five pastors would approve of euthanasia for a person who is very likely to die in the upcoming few days, whereas only one in five pastors would approve of euthanasia for a person who is in pain and has a remaining life expectancy of less than one year.
"It is noteworthy that when this question becomes personal, more than one third of pastors would approve of their own euthanasia if they were suffering from unbearable pain. Moreover, 8 percent of pastors who oppose euthanasia for others would allow it for themselves."
Role of religion divides pastors' opinions
The idea of an omnipotent God who is the guardian of life and death is dominant among pastors. 61 percent of pastors believe that life is in the hands of God, and man should not meddle with how and when that life ends. However, only 13 percent of pastors believe that euthanasia will lead to consequences in the afterlife.
Male pastors considered euthanasia to be against God's will more frequently than female pastors.
"This is true for all Finnish dioceses except for the Borgå Diocese, where male pastors have a more positive attitude towards euthanasia than female pastors do. It can be assumed these attitudes will become increasingly positive in the future, as the number of female pastors is growing, and women also have more leadership roles in parishes. Research shows that parishes led by women are more liberal than those led by men," Kontro sums up.
Earlier studies have also shown that female pastors are more actively involved with society than men, and they are also more open to change. This puts pressures of change on the church, as can be seen, for example, in the discourse on the rights of same-sex couples.
Pastors in the Diocese of Oulu and the Diocese of Lapua have a clearly more negative attitude towards euthanasia than pastors in other dioceses, and euthanasia is also more frequently regarded as something that is against God's will. Out of all Finnish dioceses, pastors in the Diocese of Helsinki have the most positive attitude towards euthanasia.
The importance of religion in a pastor's life is also a variable that clearly explains attitudes towards euthanasia: the less important religion is, the more positive the attitude. There was no statistically significant association between pastors' euthanasia-related attitudes and their age or job description, nor with encountering dying people in the course of their work.
The data for the study were collected via an online survey in collaboration with the trade union of pastors of the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland. A total of 541 pastors responded to the survey.
