What's the record for how long it's ever rained without stopping?

Lynn McMurdie, Research Associate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington 

Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Crop and Soil Sciences, Washington State University

Mon, December 20, 2021

Some places rarely see the sun. Donat Photography / EyeEm


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What is the longest time it has ever rained for? – Wayne

The answer is – it depends. If you live in a dry place, like the Atacama Desert in South America, and it rains for an hour, that may be the precipitation record for that location. If you live in a wet place, like the Amazon rain forest, raining for 40 days in a row wouldn’t be a big deal.

As scientists who study the weather, we love rain data – and use it to learn how storm systems work. We’ve also learned what conditions produce rain records.

What happens inside clouds

Rain forms when moist air is lifted into the sky where it cools. As moist air chills, the water vapor molecules press together to form tiny microscopic droplets. Together they look like clouds. Air motion inside clouds can sometimes cause the droplets to bang into each other and become larger droplets. In the upper parts of clouds, the temperature is cold enough to make ice crystals, which eventually get heavy enough to fall – and melt into rain on their way to the ground.

Rain can come from many different types of storms. Thunderstorms, for example, have a short life span and can produce intense downpours. Other storms, such as winter storms, can linger for several days and produce gentle rain, steady rain or, if it’s cold enough, snow.

In most places, weather alternates between dry and wet periods. That’s because each period of stormy weather is followed by a period of dry air with plentiful sunshine and few clouds.

A person walks with an umbrella on a rain soaked trail.

An exception to this rule is where mountains are near oceans. In that case, as moist ocean air blows toward the land, it encounters the mountains and is forced to lift over them. Clouds can form there almost continuously, bringing rainfall that can last for weeks or longer.
Days and days of rain

Rainfall records exist only in places where people live and keep records. Many towns and cities don’t bother collecting rainfall data. And records don’t exist for the many uninhabited locations on Earth, like over the ocean or deep in rain forests. So rainfall data is incomplete.

In modern record keeping, rainfall is measured by the amount in a given time period, usually hourly or daily. A few drops of rain is called a “trace” of rain. Rainfall is “measurable” if it adds up to 0.01 inch (0.25 millimeters) or more.

In the U.S., the longest periods of daily rain have occurred in Hawaii, where easterly trade winds blow toward the mountains. An incredible 331 consecutive days of measurable rainfall were recorded at Manuawili Ranch, Maui, in 1939-40. If you include a trace of rain, the record is 881 consecutive days, or nearly three straight years, at Honomu Maki, Oahu, from 1913 to 1916. This dependable and continuous rainfall is the reason that region is a tropical rainforest.

An enormous tree trunk.

In the continental U.S., the longest daily rainfalls have occurred in winter near the coastal mountain ranges of the Pacific Northwest. In 1997-98, Otis, Oregon, received 79 straight days of measurable rainfall. The Pacific Northwest has temperate rainforests, where the continuously wet cold season nurtures huge trees, even though it is often relatively dry in the summer.

There are plenty of other rainy places in the world where moist air flows over mountains. The Meteorological Observatory in Cherrapunjee, India, recorded 86 consecutive days of measurable rainfall during the monsoon in 1995. Other rainy places include Southern New Zealand, Bioko Island in Equatorial Guinea and western Colombia in South America.

Closeup of a rain gauge.

If you want to know how much it rains where you live, the best way is to install a rain gauge and start recording your own daily rainfall measurements. A great resource is the CoCoRahs Network, a community of volunteers working to measure and map rain, hail and snow.

Collecting data about the location and intensity of all kinds of precipitation really helps scientists like us understand weather systems and improve our weather forecasting.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Lynn McMurdie, University of Washington and Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik, Washington State University.

Read more:

What would it feel like to touch a cloud?

Why does some rain fall harder than other rain?

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

2021’s climate disasters revealed an east-west weather divide, with one side of the country too wet, the other dangerously dry

Shuang-Ye Wu, Associate Professor of Geology, University of Dayton
Tue, December 21, 2021

Wildfires that swept through Sequoia National Forest in California in September 2021 were so severe they killed ancient trees that had adapted to survive fires.

AP Photo/Noah Berger

Alongside a lingering global pandemic, the year 2021 was filled with climate disasters, some so intense they surprised even the scientists who study them.

Extreme rainstorms turned to raging flash floods that swept through mountain towns in Europe, killing over 200 people. Across Asia, excessive rainfall inundated wide areas and flooded subway stations in China. Heat waves shattered records in the Pacific Northwest, Europe and the Arctic. Wildfires swept through towns in California, Canada, Greece and Australia. And those were only a few of the extremes.

In the U.S. alone, damage from the biggest climate and weather disasters is expected to total well over US$100 billion in 2021.

Many of these extreme weather events have been linked to human-caused climate change, and they offer a glimpse of what to expect in a rapidly warming world.

In the U.S., something in particular stood out: a sharp national precipitation divide, with one side of the country too wet, the other too dry.

As a climate scientist, I study the impact of global warming on precipitation and the water cycle. Here’s what happened with precipitation in the U.S. in 2021 and why we’re likely to see similar scenarios in the future.

The east-west weather divide

The eastern U.S. weathered storm after storm in 2021. Record rainfall in Tennessee triggered deadly flash flooding in August. The remnants of Hurricane Ida merged with another front days after the hurricane hit Louisiana and became so intense they set rainfall records and flooded subway stations and basement apartments in New York and Pennsylvania, with devastating consequences.

Almost the entire West, meanwhile, was in some stage of drought, helping to fuel wildfires that swept through forests and towns.

This kind of east-west weather divide can be enhanced by La Niña, a periodical phenomenon fueled by Pacific Ocean temperatures that tends to leave the Southwest drier than normal and the North and much of the eastern half of the U.S. wetter.

But something else is going on: Global warming fuels both dryness and extreme rainfall.

Flash flooding swept away cars and damaged homes in Tennessee in August 2021.

AP Photo/John Amis

3 impacts of global warming on rainfall

Three things in particular happen to precipitation when the planet warms.

1) Global warming leads to more overall precipitation.

Higher temperature increases evaporation from Earth’s surface. It also increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture at a rate of about 7% per degree Celsius that the planet warms. With more moisture evaporating, global precipitation is expected to increase, but this increase is not uniform.

2) Global warming leads to more intense precipitation.

With higher temperature, more moisture is needed to reach the condensation level to form precipitation. As a result, light precipitation will be less common. But with more moisture in the atmosphere, when storm systems do develop, the increased humidity leads to heavier rainfall events.

In addition, storm systems are fueled by latent heat – the energy released into the atmosphere when water vapor condenses to liquid water. Increased moisture in the atmosphere also enhances latent heat in storm systems, increasing their intensity.

Research shows that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events has increased since the 1950s over most land areas.

The remnants of Hurricane Ida flooded subway stations in New York City in September 2021. 

David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

3) Global warming tends to make wet places wetter and dry places drier.

Precipitation is not distributed evenly over the planet because of the global atmosphere circulation pattern. This global circulation brings moisture to places where winds come together, such as the tropical regions where we find most of the world’s rainforests, and away from places where winds diverge, such as the midlatitudes where most world’s deserts are located.

Assuming no significant changes in global wind patterns, increases in evaporation and moisture will mean more moisture is transported from dry areas to wet areas and into the storm tracks at higher latitudes. Global warming could also potentially change the global circulation pattern, causing a shift in the world’s wet and dry regions.

A California farmer pulled out almond groves in June 2021 because of a lack of water to irrigate them. 

Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Mountains, moisture and the east-west divide

These dynamics are also affected by local conditions, such as the shape of the land, the types of plants on it and the presence of major water bodies.

The western U.S., with the exception of the West Coast, is dry in part because it lies in the rain shadow of mountains. The westerly wind from the Pacific Ocean is forced upward by the mountain ranges in the West. As it moves up, the air cools and precipitation forms on the windward side of the mountains. By the time the wind reaches the leeward side of the mountains, the moisture has already rained out. As the wind descends the mountains, the air warms up, further reducing the relative humidity.

Higher temperature in areas like these where the moisture supply is already limited means less humidity in the air, leading to less rain. Higher temperature and less precipitation would also reduce snow packs in the mountains and cause earlier melt in spring. All these changes are likely to increase aridity in the West.

The ‘bathtub ring’ around Lake Mead in July 2021 reflected record low water levels in this important Colorado River reservoir. The reservoir fell below 35% capacity and triggered water use restrictions.

Photo by David McNew/Getty Images

The eastern U.S., on the other hand, receives abundant moisture from the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico carried by the easterly trade wind. With abundant moisture supply, increasing temperature means more moisture in the atmosphere, leading to more precipitation and stronger storms.

This is what years of precipitation records show and what is projected for future precipitation based on climate models. Both show a decrease in annual precipitation in the West, likely meaning more long periods of drought, and an increase in the East with global warming.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Shuang-Ye Wu, University of Dayton.

Read more:

California’s water supplies are in trouble as climate change worsens natural dry spells, especially in the Sierra Nevada

Avoiding water bankruptcy in the drought-troubled Southwest: What the US and Iran can learn from each other

Havoc in the Midwest Was Caused by a Rare December Derecho Windstorm



Brian K. Sullivan
Mon, December 20, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Last week’s wave of thunderstorms and tornadoes that killed at least five after sweeping out of Nebraska and Kansas across the Midwest was a serial derecho, according to the National Weather Service.

Unusual for this time of year, a serial derecho shows up as a series of bow-like arcs of storms and winds embedded in a larger weather system that can cause destructive and dangerous conditions. Last week’s storm blasted winds up to 97 miles (156 kilometers) per hour across Nebraska and tornadoes were reported in Minnesota, while the storm set a record for the number of 75 mph winds or higher recorded across the central U.S., the Storm Prediction Center said.

While destructive, last week’s derecho didn’t rise to the level of one in August 2020 that knocked out power to 1 million customers and ripped an $11 billion path of carnage across the Midwest in just a few hours, according to a tweet from the National Weather Service in Des Moines.

The name derived from the Spanish in the 19th century to describe winds that were straight and not twisted as tornadoes are. Typically 70% of them form in May to August when temperatures soar and the air is humid, while only 1% tend to occur in December, the weather service said.

EXPLAINER: What is a derecho?

Severe Weather Midwest DerechoFILE- Wind fueled fires burns in a pasture which was part of a fire that burned and stretched across Ellis, Russell, Osborne and Rooks counties, Dec. 16, 2021, near Natoma, Kan. The National Weather Service has declared the series of thunderstorms and tornadoes that swept across the Great Plains and upper Midwest on Dec. 15 as a serial derecho, a rare event featuring a very lengthy and wide line of storms. The service said it was the first-ever serial derecho in December in the U.S. 

(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

The Associated Press
Mon, December 20, 2021

Multiple tornadoes and thunderstorms that struck the Great Plains and upper Midwest on Dec. 15 were the result of a rare event called a derecho, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center. It was the first on record in December in the United States.

WHAT IS A DERECHO?

A derecho is often described as an inland hurricane.

According to the National Weather Service, the term comes from the Spanish word “derechos” to mean “direct” or “straight ahead" and was first used in 1888 by a chemist and professor of physical sciences.

The storm has no eye and its powerful winds come across in a line. That can cause widespread overall damage and smaller pockets of severe damage.

Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist in the Atlanta area and a former chief scientist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said a derecho can develop from a series of separate storms, usually carrying hail and strong winds, that combine and build into a larger bowing complex.

The term “bow” describes how it appears on radar.

When that happens, the system “can subsist on its own, it will continually fuel itself,” Maue said. “It can cause tremendous damage with straight-line winds.”

HOW OFTEN DO THEY OCCUR?

Derechos are relatively rare events, and in the U.S. are more likely to occur in the Corn Belt, an area that ranges from Minnesota and Iowa south and eastward toward the Ohio Valley, according to the National Weather Service.

They’re more likely to occur from May through August, particularly during periods of high heat — making the December derecho so uncommon.

“The climatology of derechoes depends on the location and season, but if you consider the entire US (east of the Rockies), then you'll usually see one or two, possible more per year depending upon the weather patterns,” Maue said.

WHAT DAMAGE CAN IT CAUSE?

A 2020 derecho that traveled from eastern Nebraska across Iowa and parts of Wisconsin and Illinois reached wind speed of a major hurricane. The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center reported winds approaching 100 miles per hour (161 kilometers per hour) in multiple places. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, residents emerged from their homes to find an estimated 100,000 trees had been snapped or torn out of the ground.

A 2009 storm dubbed a Super Derecho by the National Weather Service traveled from western Kansas to eastern Kentucky. It caused several deaths and injuries and more than $500 million in damages by the time it had traveled more than 1,000 miles (1,609 kilometers).

A 2003 derecho traveled from Arkansas through several southern states including Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. Two people died and 11 were hurt.

Last week's storm system spawned at least 45 tornadoes and caused widespread damage. Five deaths have been blamed on the storms.

ARE THERE DIFFERENT TYPES OF DERECHOES?

Yes. The August 2020 storm system was the result of what is known as a progressive derecho. The Dec. 15 event was a serial derecho.

The weather service said a progressive derecho is fueled by a hot and moist environment with relatively strong winds aloft. Serial derechos are produced by storms with strong winds that bow outward, the service said. They sweep across an area both long and wide, driven by the presence of very strong winds in the atmosphere.

The unprecedented December warm spell included temperatures that rose to 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) as far north as Wisconsin, creating evening temperatures that weather historian Chris Burt compared to that of a “warm July evening.”

US Shale Producer SM Energy Sets New Environmental Targets, Zero Routine Flaring

Hart Energy Staff
Mon, December 20, 2021

SM Energy Co. on Dec. 20 set new emissions reduction targets and unveiled plans to eliminate routine flaring by 2023.

The new environmental targets set by SM Energy, whose operations are focused in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shale plays, were largely driven by the company’s shareholders, according to President and CEO Herb Vogel.

“Feedback from our stakeholders has emphasized the importance of proper stewardship by the upstream sector, particularly in the important areas of flaring, and methane and GHG (greenhouse-gas) emissions,” Vogel commented in a company release on Dec. 20.

SM Energy announced the following targets in the release:

Zero routine flaring at all SM Energy operations and non-routine flaring not to exceed 1% of natural gas production, each by 2023 based on the full-year average;

BUT NO SCOPE 3

A 50% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions intensity by 2030 with 2019 as the base year; and

Maintaining its already very low methane emissions intensity at the company’s 2020 level of 0.04 (metric tonnes CH4/Mboe) or better going forward.

(Source: SM Energy December 2021 Investor Presentation)

“Our environmental strategy incorporates a number of actions, many of which are already underway,” Vogel added, “and which provide a pathway to the achievement of these targets, positioning SM Energy as a leader in environmental performance.”

At present, SM Energy’s investment portfolio is focused in five counties in the state of Texas, specifically the Midland Basin in West Texas and the Maverick Basin in South Texas, according to the company website.

DAMNING WITH FAINT PRAISE
Defiant in war and isolation, Hamas plays long game in Gaza














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A general vuew of Gaza City is seen Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021. Gaza’s Hamas rulers collect millions of dollars a month in taxes and customs at a crossing on the Egyptian border – providing a valuable source of income that helps it sustain a government and powerful armed wing. After surviving four wars and a nearly 15-year blockade, Hamas has become more resilient and Israel has been forced to accept that its sworn enemy is here to stay. (AP Photo/ Khalil Hamra)More

JOSEPH KRAUSS and FARES AKRAM
Sun, December 19, 2021

LONG READ

RAFAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — Each month, hundreds of trucks heavy with fuel, cement and other goods cross a plowed no man’s land between Egypt and the Gaza Strip — and Hamas becomes stronger.

Hamas collects tens of millions of dollars a month in taxes and customs at the crossing in the border town of Rafah, according to estimates. The funds help it operate a government and powerful armed wing while international aid covers most of the basic needs of Gaza’s 2 million residents.

That this is happening with the quiet acquiescence of Israel, which considers Hamas a terrorist group, might come as a surprise.

Israel says it works with Egypt to supervise Rafah in return for quiet. The opening of the crossing “was a common interest for all parties to ensure a lifeline for Hamas that would enable it to maintain calm in Gaza and prevent an explosion,” said Mohammed Abu Jayyab, an economist and editor-in-chief of a business daily in Gaza.

But there’s more to it. After surviving four wars and a nearly 15-year blockade, Hamas has only become more resilient, and Israel has been forced to accept that its sworn enemy is here to stay.

It has largely accepted Hamas’ rule in Gaza because a prolonged invasion is seen as too costly. At the same time, Hamas furnishes Israeli leaders with a convenient boogeyman -- how can the Palestinians be allowed statehood if they are divided between two governments, one of which steadfastly opposes Israel’s very existence?

Meanwhile, Hamas’ willingness to use violence — in the form of rockets, protests along the border or incendiary balloons — has helped it to wrest concessions from Israel.

“Hamas stuck to its position and the Israeli government made a lot of compromises” after the war in May, said Omar Shaban, a Gaza-based political analyst. “Hamas was stubborn.”


MILLIONS EACH MONTH

After Hamas seized power from the Palestinian Authority in 2007, Israel and Egypt imposed a punishing blockade aimed at preventing the group from arming. A massive economy based on smuggling tunnels sprang up in and around Rafah. Hamas levied taxes on goods that were brought in.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi ordered the tunnels destroyed after leading the 2013 overthrow of an Islamist government that had been sympathetic to Hamas. But four years and another Gaza war later, Egypt agreed to Hamas’ demands to open an above-ground commercial crossing.

Imports through Gaza’s only other functioning commercial crossing — with Israel — are already taxed by Israeli authorities, who transfer some of the revenues to the Palestinian Authority, so Hamas can only exact small tariffs without noticeably inflating prices. Rafah belongs to Hamas.

Hamas does not release figures on public revenues or expenses. An Egyptian government media officer did not respond to a request for comment.

Some 2,000 truckloads of cement, fuel and other goods entered through Rafah in September, nearly twice the monthly average in 2019 and 2020, according to Gisha, an Israeli rights group that closely monitors the Gaza closures.

Rami Abu Rish, the managing director of the crossings at the Hamas-run Economy Ministry — who used to supervise tax collection from the tunnels — says authorities derive no more than $1 million a month from the Israeli crossing and up to $6 million from Rafah.

But the Palestinian Authority’s Finance Ministry estimates Hamas derives as much as $30 million a month, mainly from taxes on fuel and tobacco coming in through Rafah, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal figures.

A cigarette importer in Gaza — who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of jeopardizing the trade — said a small group of merchants imports 9,000 to 15,000 crates of cigarettes through Rafah each month, with Hamas charging $1,000 to $2,000 per crate. That alone would bring in $18 million on average.

Abu Jayyab, the Gaza economist, estimates Hamas makes up to $27 million a month. That’s in addition to taxes and customs paid on cement and fuel.

Mohammed Agha, whose family owns a chain of gas stations in Gaza, was one of the few businessmen who agreed to speak publicly about Hamas’ management of the crossings. He said gas station owners are forced to buy most of their fuel from the supplies coming through Rafah because Hamas benefits from the trade.

He said Hamas jailed him for two months in 2019 when he protested the arrangement.

“We as businessmen are sustaining the government” as the wider economy suffers, he said. “Before Hamas, 1,000 shekels (about $320) a month was enough for a family to get by. Now, 5,000 isn’t enough because they tax the citizens.”

The money Hamas collects could go to its estimated 50,000 civil servants or supporters of the political movement. Or it could be spent on Hamas’ armed wing, which has improved its military capabilities with every war and fired over 4,000 rockets at Israel in 11 days last spring.

HAMAS AND ISRAEL

Hamas burst onto the scene during the first intifada, or uprising, in 1987. As the then-dominant Palestine Liberation Organization joined the nascent peace process with Israel, Hamas embraced armed struggle.

The militant group launched scores of attacks, including suicide bombings, in the 1990s and 2000s. Hundreds of Israelis were killed. The group called for Israel’s demise and rejected peace negotiations. It adopted a more moderate political platform in 2017, but its goals hardly changed.

In 2006, Hamas won a landslide victory in Palestinian elections, igniting a bloody power struggle with President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party. Hamas seized power in Gaza the following year, confining his authority to parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Abbas’ peaceful approach has spared the West Bank from war and isolation, but he has been powerless to end the 54-year military occupation or stop the expansion of Jewish settlements. There have been no substantive peace talks in over a decade, and Israel’s current prime minister, Naftali Bennett, is opposed to Palestinian statehood.

By contrast, Israel withdrew all its settlers and troops from Gaza in 2005 — after a second and more violent Palestinian uprising — and its soldiers cannot enter without risking war.

Israel refuses to talk to Hamas, but over the last decade it has negotiated a series of informal cease-fires through Egyptian, Qatari and U.N. mediators in which it has eased the blockade in return for calm.

Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, attributes much of his group’s popularity to “the failure of the other project,” referring to the Western-backed Palestinian Authority.

“The majority of Palestinian factions believe that resistance, and particularly armed resistance, has to be one of the tools in our struggle for freedom.” He said the easing of the blockade “doesn’t address the root of the problem, which is the siege and the occupation.”

Bennett was an outspoken critic of the previous government’s policy of allowing Qatar to send suitcases of cash into Gaza through an Israeli crossing.

But within months of becoming prime minister, the payments to needy families resumed through a U.N.-run voucher system, and Qatar resumed its contribution to the Hamas-run government’s payroll in the form of fuel.

Israel denies it has given in to Hamas’ demands. The new government says it has modified policies to try to ensure that humanitarian aid bypasses Hamas while responding militarily to even minor attacks.

All construction materials — including those brought in through Rafah — are imported through a monitoring system established with the U.N. and the PA after the 2014 war. Israel says it is barring all new, large construction projects until a deal is reached to return two captives and the remains of two Israeli soldiers held by Hamas since 2014.

Restrictions on so-called dual-use items that could be used for military purposes are in place at both the Israeli and Egyptian crossings, said Abu Rish, the Hamas crossing official.

A senior Israeli Defense Ministry official said the goal is to maximize humanitarian aid while minimizing the risk that it benefits Hamas. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, would only say that Israel is aware of the Rafah imports, and is relying on Egypt to ensure that the same restrictions are in place there as there are at the Israeli crossing.

‘THE OTHER CHOICE IS NOT BETTER’

Even as Hamas generates revenue for its government and from the crossings and taxing businesses, the international community sustains the people of Gaza.

U.N. agencies have spent more than $4.5 billion in Gaza since 2014, including $600 million in 2020 alone. Most of that funding goes through the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, which provides food aid, health services and operates schools for some 280,000 children.

The wealthy Gulf state of Qatar has sent $1.3 billion to Gaza since 2012 to fund reconstruction and health services, including $500 million pledged after the May war.

The largesse can be seen in Gaza City, where Qatari funds were used to build a scenic seaside promenade and expand a main road that runs past a Qatari-funded housing complex and the Qatari diplomatic mission, which resembles an embassy.

On the surface it all looks very prosperous, with families strolling past beach cafes, amusement parks and even a handful of luxury hotels. But the new construction is merely a backdrop to the grinding living conditions endured by most Gazans.

Unemployment hovers around 45% and nearly three out of five Gazans live in poverty, the World Bank reported in November. The average Gazan only has 13 hours of electricity a day and tap water is undrinkable.

Still, there has been almost no public opposition to Hamas within Gaza because Palestinians see no viable alternative. The Palestinian Authority has come to be seen by many as a corrupt, authoritarian extension of Israeli rule.

Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University, said the absence of protests “doesn’t mean the Palestinians in Gaza are happy with Hamas.”

He attributed the lack of visible opposition to Hamas’ violent crackdown on protests over taxes and the rising cost of living in 2019, as well as the PA’s failures.

“The other choice is not better than Hamas,” he said. “Fatah and the PA are still seen by the Palestinian people as a very corrupted organization.”

A poll this month found that despite the deprivations wrought by the confrontations between Hamas and Israel, 47% of Gazans would vote for Hamas if parliamentary elections were held, compared to just 29% who would vote for Abbas’ Fatah.

Hamas isn’t going anywhere. And Israel knows it.

“They are facing a number of problems here,” Abusada said. “But resilience is part of their strategy. They’re not going to give up.”

___

Associated Press writer Helen Wieffering in Washington contributed to this report.

Militias Shut Down Libya’s Biggest Oil Field Before Election

ANOTHER SUCCESSFUL NATO MISSION


Hatem Mohareb and Sherry Su
Mon, December 20, 2021, 10:46 AM·2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Libya suspended crude exports from two of its ports after militias shut down the OPEC member’s biggest field days before an election.

State-owned National Oil Corp. said the nation’s production had fallen by more than 300,000 barrels a day. Shipments are to halt at the port of Zawiya, which handles crude from the nation’s biggest field at Sharara. Force majeure has also been declared on crude exports from Mellitah, which is linked by pipeline to the Wafa field.

The drop in supply is set to bring Libya’s crude output to less than 1 million barrels a day. Any sustained drop from Libya, which sits on Africa’s biggest oil reserves, could counter efforts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners to boost production.

The disruption to exports was announced after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard, a paramilitary force closed a valve on a pipeline taking crude from Sharara to Zawiya. The force, meant to protect energy facilities, did the same on a pipeline running to Mellitah, a person familiar with the matter said earlier.

Oil prices have rallied about 35% this year as economies recover from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic. Still, the spread of the omicron variant has weighed on the market, with Brent crude slumping on Monday to near $70 a barrel.

Libya’s output has held at more than 1 million barrels a day this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government is trying to attract billions of dollars of investment from foreign energy companies, including France’s TotalEnergies SE and Italy’s Eni SpA, in a bid to raise exports to 2 million barrels per day within six years.

Zawiya, near the capital city of Tripoli, is still open and workers can load oil in storage onto tankers, said the person familiar with the matter. Sharara pumps around 300,000 barrels a day at full capacity, while Wafa can produce 45,000 barrels per day.

The shutdowns come ahead of a presidential election scheduled for Dec. 24 that’s meant to end more than a decade of conflict and civil war. There are doubts the vote will go ahead, as disputes over the eligibility of candidates threaten to sow fresh turmoil.

Nebraska's quandary: Can it force more citizens to work?

MILLIONAIRES WORRY ABOUT WORKING FOLKS NOT WORKING

Sonja Redding, an unemployed mother of two, stands outside her home in Omaha, Nebraska on Monday, Dec. 6, 2021. Redding has been trying to find a job, but it's difficult because she feels she needs to stay at home to care for her children who have special needs and are particularly vulnerable to viruses. (AP Photo/Stephen Groves)

GRANT SCHULTE
Sun, December 19, 2021

LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — Even in normal times Nebraska has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, with fewer than two million people and plenty of jobs to go around. But with some workers slow to return to work after COVID-19 shutdowns, the state has hit new depths, recording the country’s lowest-ever state unemployment rate of 1.8% in November.

Now Gov. Pete Ricketts, who frequently expounds on the value of work, is confronting an intriguing question: Can a governor force citizens to work, even if they apparently aren’t eager or able to do so?

Ricketts is certainly trying every option imaginable to get Nebraskans into jobs, including requiring people to confer with job coaches before seeking unemployment benefits.

“There’s going to be a lot of different things we’re going to have to do to reach each individual and, if they’re not working for whatever reason, get them back into the workforce,” Ricketts said recently.

Unemployment rates are low in many places, and as the national rate fell to 4.2%, officials across the country are struggling to convince people who have stopped looking for work to seek jobs.

A full work force is needed to keep businesses functioning and support local economies, but it's hard to overstate the difficulty of uprooting people who are caring for family members, exploring other life options or who just want to take a break.

Ricketts is determined to try with policies that make it more trouble to stay home.

“Jobs help create great financial independence for Nebraskans and their families, giving them the dignity to achieve their dreams,” said the two-term Republican governor, who is part of the Ricketts family, whose estimated $4.5 billion in wealth originated with the creation of the online brokerage Ameritrade.

Ricketts' first move was to require people seeking unemployment benefits to meet with a job coach, discuss specific employment goals and enroll in an “individualized reemployment plan." The state added tougher requirements for maintaining benefits and for contacting employers to apply for openings.

Nebraska also was one of the first to end supplemental federal assistance for workers hit by the pandemic.

Nebraska has about 49,000 job openings listed on a state website and 19,000 working-age residents who are not working. About 4,300 people are receiving unemployment benefits.

Among the unemployed is Sonja Redding, an Omaha mother whose daughter and son have autism and methylmalonic acidemia, a rare autoimmune disease that makes them exceptionally vulnerable to viruses.

Redding previously worked as a reseller and ran her own booth at a flea market but stopped after the pandemic hit. She has survived on federal stimulus money, unemployment, Social Security income and her own savings, but lately has reduced her spending “to a bare minimum” so she can stay home with her children.

“I would love to get back to work,” she said. “I'm a normal parent and would like to have time away from my kids sometimes, but this is what we've got to do right now. It's definitely draining.”

Redding said employers she's talked to want her to come into the office.

Other reasons some people aren't working include concerns about being infected with the coronavirus, said Dave Swenson, a economics professor at Iowa State University. Burnout is another factor, particularly among health care workers and teachers.

Swenson questions the effectiveness of Ricketts' efforts because most people without jobs aren't getting jobless aid, he said.

Still, there is no question that Nebraska businesses are hurting for workers.

“It’s their No. 1 challenge, their No. 2 challenge and their No. 3 challenge,” said Bryan Slone, president of the Nebraska Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

In a chamber survey, more than 90% of chamber members identified worker shortages as their biggest concern.

In Lincoln, Nebraska's second-largest city, Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing has been unable to meet customer demand for its jet skis, ATVs, subway rail cars and aircraft parts.

“I would hire 150 people right now if I could,” said Bryan Seck, the company's chief talent management strategist.

Lincoln’s unemployment rate before the pandemic was 3.8%, but now it’s closer to 1.3%. Kawasaki has begun offering more consistent hours, an $18.10 starting hourly wage and a tuition reimbursement program.

Mitch Tempus, the owner of two Fernando's Cafe & Cantina restaurants in the Omaha area, said he's been trying unsuccessfully to lure back some of the servers and bussers he laid off last year, even offering raises that increased his labor costs by more than 20% and brought average wages up to $13 or $14 an hour.

And with new hires, “It's even hard retaining them," he said. "Sometimes people will work for two or three days and then we never see them again.”

Pat Keenan, who manages three chain hotels in North Platte, Nebraska, said he's given up plans to open a restaurant near one hotel because “the chances of us getting it staffed are almost zero.”

He added, “I would call 2021 the year of the hourly employee,” he said. “They have more power than they’ve had and more money than they’ve ever had.”

Keenan said it's time for the federal government to come up with an immigration reform plan that would allow more immigrants to work legally in the United States.

“I think we’re back at the stage where we need an influx of hard-working people again,” Keenan said. “I hate to say it, but it feels like a lot of existing Americans feel a little entitled and have lost their work ethic.”

___

Follow Grant Schulte on Twitter: https://twitter.com/GrantSchulte

RASHAMON FOR TWO
China says 'bright' prospect for democracy in Hong Kong

A police officer stands guard below China and Hong Kong flags during a flag raising ceremony, a week ahead of the Legislative Council election in Hong Kong

Sun, December 19, 2021

BEIJING (Reuters) -Prospects for democracy in Hong Kong are "bright", China said on Monday in a white paper, a day after pro-Beijing candidates won a legislative election in the city in record low turnout after a sweeping Chinese crackdown on its freedoms.

China had "restored order" and brought "democracy back on track" in Hong Kong, the State Council said in the white paper on developments in the former British colony.

The Asian financial hub was rocked by anti-Beijing and pro-democracy protests for several years before Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on it in 2020.

The white paper attributed the turmoil to "anti-China forces" and the "foreign enemies" backing them, adding that it had "advanced the system of democracy" in Hong Kong by amending the election methods for its legislative assembly.

Candidates in Sunday's election were vetted for "patriotism" and pro-democracy candidates were largely absent, having declined to run or been jailed or forced into exile.

Pro-Beijing candidates swept to victory.

(Reporting by Yew Lun Tian; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Robert Birsel)

"Hugely embarrassing": Pro-Beijing candidates sweep Hong Kong election with record low turnout

Axios

Mon, December 20, 2021

Pro-Beijing candidates claimed victory in Hong Kong's Legislative Council (LegCo) election under the new "patriots only" system, per Reuters.

Why it matters: This was the first LegCo since Beijing lawmakers passed a sweeping law to ensure only "patriotic" figures can run for positions of power — which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called a "denial of democracy."

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Voter turnout was the lowest on record — 30.2%, the BBC notes.

All candidates running to be members of the electoral college were vetted by China's government.

What they're saying: Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam acknowledged at a news conference Monday the low voter turnout, but said she couldn't outline the "specifics" of this, according to Reuters.

"But 1.35 million coming out to vote — it cannot be said that it was not an ... election that did not get a lot of support from citizens," Lam added.

Kenneth Chan, a political scientist at Hong Kong's Baptist University, told AFP the turnout was "hugely embarrassing" for the government.

In a joint statement, Blinken and his counterparts from Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the U.K., expressed their "grave concern" over the election outcome.

"Since handover, candidates with diverse political views have contested elections in Hong Kong. Yesterday’s election has reversed this trend. The overhaul of Hong Kong’s electoral system introduced earlier this year reduced the number of directly elected seats and established a new vetting process to severely restrict the choice of candidates on the ballot paper."


"These changes eliminated any meaningful political opposition. Meanwhile, many of the city’s opposition politicians ... remain in prison pending trial, with others in exile overseas."


"We urge the People’s Republic of China to act in accordance with its international obligations to respect protected rights and fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong."

Evergrande: China's efforts to contain its Lehman moment

Mariko Oi - Asia business correspondent
Sun, December 19, 2021

Evergrande sign on building.

When the world started to take notice of Evergrande's $300bn (£226bn) debt crisis earlier this year, some asked whether it would become China's "Lehman moment".

Since then it has become clear that Beijing is handling the situation in a very different way to how Washington dealt with the bankruptcy of investment banking giant Lehman Brothers at the start of the global financial crisis in 2008.

After Evergrande announced that it may not be able to meet all of its financial obligations, the crisis-hit firm defaulted on some of its overseas bonds.

It has now reportedly entered a debt restructuring process with Chinese authorities that may include the sale of some of its founder's personal assets.

"It is opaque but when we speak to our industry contacts in China, no one is surprised," said Vinesh Motwani of Silk Road Research.
Evergrande v Lehman

"The biggest difference between the two is that Evergrande was a train wreck that everyone saw coming," said Mr Motwani, who was working in the US as an analyst at Credit Suisse when Lehman collapsed.

"When the 'three red lines' policy was announced more than a year ago, it was clear that Evergrande was one of the worst offenders, so the reaction in China was 'this was a long time coming'."

The "three red lines" are a set of debt thresholds that severely limit the ability of certain property developers to borrow. For decades the sector had seen uncontrolled borrowing, something the China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), described as "reckless".

Evergrande's crisis is a "grey rhino" event, a term used to describe a slow-moving obvious threat as opposed to a surprise "black swan" occurrence, according to Rory Green, the Head of China and Asia Research at investment advisory firm TS Lombard.

"The warning about Evergrande has been going around for a very long time so none of the bondholders should be surprised that they're defaulting," he said.

Evergrande's shares have slumped by almost 90% this year

Why is this crisis so different?

Another major difference between the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the Evergrande crisis is that when the US government needed to act, it had to pass legislation in order to have the authority to intervene but the Chinese government does not have this problem.

By controlling the country's property market through state-owned banks, Beijing also knows which developers are likely to default - something that could not have been said about Washington during the subprime mortgage crisis.

At the same time, China is being far more selective with its actions than the US was during the global financial crisis. Unlike Washington which bailed out some of the world's biggest banks, China's Communist Party is taking a more piecemeal approach.

"Beijing is like a surgeon operating on a tumour who is thinking 'what do I need to save?'," said Alicia Garcia Herrero, the chief economist for Asia-Pacific at investment bank Natixis.

The luxury yacht "Event", reportedly owned by Evergrande's founder Hui Ka Yan

For the Chinese government, it is crucial that Evergrande's day-to-day operations remain intact. It aims to ensure the company can finish the homes it is building so that ordinary property buyers are not affected and trust in the property market is not seriously damaged.

As Ms Herrero puts it: "Beijing also needs to be looking at the heart, if it is still beating. That's people's perceptions of the property sector."

So far, this approach seems to have limited the impact on the housing market, according to Mr Motwani: "Actual property prices are still up year-on-year. Even where they have fallen month-on-month, they are not down by double digits."

But there are concerns that if prices continue to fall, potential buyers may put off purchasing new homes - which would further slow down the market.

Evergrande owns real estate in more than 20 Chinese cities

What will happen to Evergrande?

Experts predict Evergrande's restructuring could take months, if not years, with little in the way of headline-grabbing announcements as authorities try to avoid the kind of shocks that hit the global financial system after Lehman Brothers collapsed.

Mr Green points to past big Chinese business failures. Using the implosion of insurance and financial giant Anbang as an example, he expects Evergrande's restructuring to be a long process: "Anbang went into restructuring two years ago and it is still ongoing. Evergrande is much bigger so it could take years. But in my opinion, the worst funding condition has passed."

"The most likely scenario is for Evergrande to be split into separate units. It will be the cutting up of the grey rhino and regional banks will be tasked to deal with those separate units to ensure the stability of the sector and the economy."
Will international investors be scared off?

While Evergrande missing offshore bond interest payments may not have triggered a financial meltdown as they are mostly held by wealthy overseas investors, some analysts are concerned about the impact on the Chinese property sector's reputation.

"It definitely hurts the faith of international investors in China's offshore real estate bonds," said Jackson Chan from financial markets research platform Bondsupermart.

Crucially, it has made it much more expensive for Chinese property developers to borrow money from international investors.

What remains to be seen is how Beijing strikes a balance between continuing its strict property market policies and the risk of the country's massive real estate industry losing access to affordable foreign investment.

Ray Dalio’s China Fascination Predates His Ties to Beijing’s Billions


Ray Dalio’s China Fascination Predates His Ties to Beijing’s Billions

Katherine Burton
Mon, December 20, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- The visitors from China arrived in affluent Westport, Connecticut, on a singular mission: to learn the ways of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.

These officials from the nation’s sovereign wealth fund were invited by none other than the founder, Ray Dalio, who has spent decades quietly cultivating Beijing.

The friendly invitation, made more than a decade ago and reported here for the first time, offers a glimpse into the complex relationship that Dalio has forged with officials in the Communist Party.

Bridgewater is one of dozens of Western financial players looking to expand in the world’s second-biggest economy. It’s a tricky strategy, with the U.S. and China at odds over trade, technology, Taiwan, human rights and more. But it isn’t just business: For almost 40 years, Dalio has spoken of his fascination with China, and has been a vocal -- and at times controversial -- booster of the nation and its government.

His steadfast support recently brought criticism from politicians and caused tension with his own chief executive officer, David McCormick, who’s considering a Senate run. McCormick, a Republican, made it clear to colleagues he’s not the Sinophile that Dalio appears to be.

Dalio, 72, has a deep respect for the country and its leaders, people who know him said. He once even organized a group meant to govern Bridgewater and named it the Politburo, after the Chinese government’s decision-making body.

In 1995, Dalio sent his son Matt, then 11, to live and attend school in Beijing for a year.

“I have been going to China for 37 years and am lucky enough to have become well-acquainted with the thinking of top economic policy makers and a broad range of others,” Dalio wrote in “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail,” his latest book. “Having this direct contact has helped me see up close the reasoning behind their actions, which have produced remarkable advances.”

Whether by chance or design, Dalio has parlayed his fascination with the country into a successful business partnership.

Bridgewater has been managing Chinese state money since 1993, and counts among its clients the sovereign wealth fund -- the $1 trillion China Investment Corp. -- as well as the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages foreign-currency reserves and also has $1 trillion in externally managed assets.

In total, Dalio’s firm oversees about $5 billion for the two entities, making China one of its biggest clients by assets, according to people familiar with the firm. Even so, the business only accounts for about 2% of revenue.

A Bridgewater spokesman declined to comment. CIC officials declined to comment, and officials at SAFE didn’t respond to a request for comment.

CIC was invited to Westport those many years ago to learn how to build its own investing engine, modeled on the All Weather strategy that other clients pay for. By 2011, CIC had the internal portfolio up and running. Bridgewater has only extended such largess to a dozen sovereign wealth funds or pension funds over the years.

Dalio, with a $15.6 billion fortune according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, has also steered his personal wealth to China. Since the early 2000s, his family foundation has donated $115 million to Chinese charities, including child welfare and organizations that promote U.S.-China relations, according to a person familiar with his philanthropy. Since 2015, he’s given $215 million to his home state of Connecticut.

Onshore Business

Bridgewater opened a Beijing office in 2011, and in 2016 started Shanghai-based Bridgewater China Investment Management, run by Wang Yan, who set up a small investment team. The firm acquired its license to manage onshore money in 2018.

In November, the unit raised 8 billion yuan ($1.3 billion) for a new private fund. That brought the firm’s total onshore assets to more than 10 billion yuan, people familiar with the matter have said, and vaulted Bridgewater above Winton Group Ltd., previously the biggest foreign hedge fund manager in the country, as well as heavyweights UBS Group AG, D.E. Shaw and Two Sigma Investments.

While Dalio’s public comments about both the investment opportunities in China and the country’s leaders have been overwhelmingly positive over the years, he has on occasion taken a more negative view.

In a 2015 client note that was leaked to the media, he wrote that his normally optimistic view of China had changed and that there “were no safe places to invest.” But even then, he backpedaled a few days later, saying publicly that the expected slower growth wasn’t a big deal because China “has the resources and the capable leaders to manage these challenges.”

As U.S.-China tensions continue to escalate -- it’s one of the rare issues that both major American political parties agree on -- Dalio’s support for the country and its leaders is causing more trouble at home than ever. And it comes as he’s facing the challenge of replacing McCormick at the top of the firm amid weak performance at his flagship Pure Alpha II fund, which has barely made money this year and has 10-year annualized returns of just 1.6%.

“Should I not invest in the United States because of our own human rights issues and other things?” he said in a Nov. 30 CNBC interview. “As a top-down country,” he said of China, “they behave like a strict parent.”

The ensuing furor was such that McCormick -- who is eying a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania -- told staff he’s had lots of arguments about China over the years with Dalio, and that he disagrees with the billionaire’s views.

A few days later, a seemingly contrite Dalio went on Twitter to explain that he was “not expressing my own opinion or endorsing that approach. My overriding objective is to help understanding.”