Tuesday, July 14, 2026

A (temporary) calm before the storm in Iran

Tuesday 14 July 2026, by Houshang Sepehr


This article, analysing the underlying dynamics of the “Memorandum of Understanding”, was written before the renewed USA attacks on Iran, thus demonstrating it was indeed a temporary calm. [1]

The recent signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States is a complex and multidimensional event. A careful examination of the text reveals the extent of the internal crises that both sides are experiencing. Far from reflecting a genuine desire for peace or marking a substantive settlement of their historical differences, this agreement appears more as the product of a political impasse, structural blockages and short-term constraints weighing on each of the two camps. Faced with growing internal and external difficulties, the leaders of the two countries opted for a limited de-escalation, in the form of a temporary truce and a temporary suspension of their confrontation, without eliminating the root causes.

Memorandum of Understanding: U.S. perspectives

An analysis of the official and unofficial statements of the leaders of the two countries clearly highlights the fragility and precariousness of this memorandum of understanding. It also highlights the significant differences between the parties as to its interpretation and how it is applied. Under these conditions, the prospects for its sustainable implementation remain shrouded in great uncertainty and its future appears more than ever to depend on the evolution of the political, regional and international balance of power.

On the US side of the equation, Donald Trump tried to present this memorandum of understanding as the consecration of an undeniable strategic success. In an interview with the media outlet Axios, published on 18 June, he stated bluntly that the acceptance of this agreement by the Islamic Republic was tantamount to an “unconditional surrender”. He elaborated on this claim by stating, “Well, it really probably is unconditional surrender… I think so… Look, they have no army left. All their ships are at the bottom of the sea, 159 ships. That’s all they had.” Through this deliberately hyperbolic and martial rhetoric, he strives to impose a reading of the balance of power as definitively decided in favour of the United States.

This triumphalist discourse appears in reality as an attempt to mask the management of strong internal pressures. By presenting the agreement as a total and unilateral victory, he helped to consolidate an image of power and political mastery, intended as much for the international scene as for stabilizing the domestic political field. This narrative of diplomatic success is thus part of a logic of strategic communication aimed at transforming a dynamic of compromise and constraint into a show of force.

After the publication of the text of this memorandum of understanding, in the United States a wave of virulent criticism was raised among many Republican officials as well as among Donald Trump’s traditional supporters. Several conservative voices have considered this document particularly weak, going so far as to compare it to previous agreements such as the JCPoA. [2] This internal contestation reveals the persistent tensions within the Republican camp around the strategy to adopt vis-à-vis Iran, and highlights the American president’s difficulties in stabilizing a lasting political consensus on this issue.

In the face of these attacks, Donald Trump’s defence has been based on a strictly pragmatic logic, centred on an assessment of costs and benefits. In the same interview with Axios, he said: “The only way I could have been tougher was to go there for another two or three weeks and keep bombing them, right? But what does that get us? The Strait of Hormuz will not reopen.”

With this argument, he justifies the signing of the memorandum not as an ideological concession, but as a strategic arbitration aimed at avoiding an escalation with potentially uncontrollable economic and geopolitical consequences. He had previously declared, on Wednesday, 17 June, in an ironic and sarcastic tone: “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit. If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD [Vance].”

These statements have been interpreted by some observers as revealing the fault lines likely to develop within the presidential entourage in the event of unfavourable developments in the situation. In this reading, the emphasis placed on “pragmatic” arbitrations and on the prevention of uncontrolled escalation could, in the long term, serve as a basis for a redistribution of political responsibilities in the event of the failure of the process.

In this context, J.D. Vance’s role is sometimes evoked in the public and media debate as that of a figure potentially exposed to internal criticism from the Republican camp, if the implementation of the memorandum were to produce results deemed insufficient. Some analysts believe that such dynamics could, in a scenario of prolonged political crisis, weaken his position in the internal balances of the Republican Party and indirectly influence his prospects in the 2028 presidential race, although these developments cannot be considered as taken for granted or determined at this stage.

Recomposition of the theocratic regime

In Iran too, the signing of this memorandum seems to reflect a paradigm shift and recompositions within the power bloc. It appears that the hard core of the regime is now facing structural tensions, as a result of the gradual erosion of its ability to ensure its legitimacy and governmental effectiveness, in a context of continuous aggravation of economic, social and political crises.

The acceptance of this agreement would thus have contributed to reviving internal fault lines and accentuating already latent divergences between different sensitivities of the government and its traditional social base. Rather than a homogeneous adherence, it is a more contrasting dynamic that is emerging, made up of reservations, readjustments and various forms of disillusionment, revealing the fragility of the balances on which the current political architecture is based.

In the nights following the announcement of the agreement, some fringes of the Islamic Republic’s supporters, as well as forces within its ideological base, who had held nightly rallies in the streets and public squares, expressed deep anger at what they perceived as an abandonment of basic slogans. These mobilizations have resulted in virulent speeches and slogans.

In particular, the participants accused government officials of compromising and overstepping ideological red lines, thus reflecting a break between part of the activist base and the political choices made at the top of the state. This reaction highlights the internal tensions caused by the agreement and the difficulty for the government in maintaining narrative and political cohesion around it.

At the same time, certain factions within the regime itself, especially among the most hardline currents, have multiplied their harsh criticism of the negotiating team. These positions reflect a desire to distance themselves from the content and implications of the agreement, in a context where the distribution of political responsibilities is also at stake.

By seeking to dissociate themselves from the consequences perceived as a retreat, these segments of power try to avoid assuming the political cost, thus revealing internal logics of disengagement and redefinition of the lines of cleavage within the state apparatus.

In response to this tense and disorderly climate, the dissemination of a singular message widely interpreted as disempowering attributed to Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, testifies to a perception of instability and confusion at the highest level of decision-making. This message, while implicitly validating the need to resolve to this compromise, also seems to aim to redistribute its political and symbolic costs.

In this perspective, the responsibility for the retreat is attributed, in a logic of distancing, to Masoud Pezeshkian, in his capacity as president and head of the Supreme National Security Council. This reading is part of a discursive style often associated with Ali Khamenei, where the preservation of the centre of authority is accompanied by an externalization of operational responsibilities, thus revealing the internal tensions and mechanisms of political management of disagreements within the state apparatus.

This political manoeuvre would thus aim to constitute a symbolic protection mechanism, intended to contain the anger of the ideological base while preserving the internal balances of power. By proceeding to an early redistribution of responsibilities, it would also make it possible to designate, in the event of the failure of the agreement scenario, a figure likely to bear the political and institutional cost of its consequences.

In this logic, the distancing of the operational responsibilities associated with Masoud Pezeshkian would appear as an instrument for managing internal tensions, aimed at protecting the central decision-making core while absorbing the criticism emanating from the various components of the regime. It would thus be less a question of a clarification of responsibilities than of a strategy of political stabilization through the construction of a space of differentiated responsibility. In this case, Mojtaba Khamenei is adopting the same strategy as Trump.

Behind these political and media stagings, some analysts believe that a deeper turning point could be underway within the state apparatus. The military-security bloc in power, embodied in particular by figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, seems to be gradually coming to the conviction that the system has entered a form of structural impasse.

In this reading, its leaders would have taken note of the growing limits of the reproduction of the old ideological registers, in which certain historical slogans such as “Death to America” or “Destruction of Israel” would no longer make it possible, on their own, to meet the material and institutional requirements facing the state. Beyond their symbolic dimension, these transformations reflect a broader constraint: that of the economic and administrative sustainability of a particularly extensive bureaucratic and security apparatus.

The survival and continuity of this architecture of power, often described as sprawling and bloated, would now depend on access to substantial financial resources. However, in a context marked by international isolation and the persistence of strong geopolitical tensions, the ability to secure these resources appears increasingly constrained, contributing to redefining the regime’s strategic room for manoeuvre.

This is why, according to this reading, the political struggle and internal recompositions that could unfold in Tehran over the next sixty days would mainly revolve around an increased rivalry between different power networks for access to post-conflict resources and rents. The issues at stake would include the sharing of economic dividends potentially linked to sanctions relief, the control of the main national economic circuits, as well as the modalities of a possible reintegration of the country into the international financial markets.

In this context, the various factions of the regime would be engaged in a dynamic of repositioning aimed at strengthening their capacity for influence and securing the most favourable share of the benefits expected from an easing of tensions and a reduction in external constraints. These developments reflect less a brutal break than a gradual recomposition of internal power relations, where economic, security and political considerations tend to be closely intertwined.

Frustration of monarchists

One of the most important indirect effects — and perceived by some observers as potentially significant — of this memorandum may lie in the recomposition, or even the weakening, of certain factions of the right-wing opposition established abroad. Currents such as the monarchists, as well as the supporters of Reza Pahlavi, have, in recent years, structured a significant part of their political strategy on the assumption of maximum external pressure on the Islamic Republic. This combined the intensification of economic sanctions, the continuation of a policy of diplomatic isolation and, for some segments, the hope of more direct support from foreign powers, notably the United States and Israel.

The petty and criminal bargaining attributed to Reza Pahlavi, combined with the growing frustration of monarchist circles, is part of an increasingly visible dynamic of political radicalization. Once again, their slogan remains unchanged and unambiguously claimed: “Thank you Trump, thank you Bibi”, in celebration of the bombing of Iran. History has rarely seen a pretender to the throne associated with a crime of such gravity

Indeed, the conclusion of this agreement highlights the fragility of this strategic approach to currents that take advantage of the figure of Reza Pahlavi. The external powers on which these currents based part of their hopes have, in the end, privileged their own geopolitical, economic and security interests, rather than an explicit logic of regime change in Iran.

This development has contributed to weakening the political prospects of these segments of the opposition in exile, by revealing the limits of a strategy mainly based on international dynamics. It has also highlighted, according to some analyses, the weakness of their social anchoring within the country, as well as their structural dependence on external conditions that are difficult to control or anticipate.

Distanced for reasons specific to their social roots from any approach involving the construction of political influence based on social dynamics and the mobilizations of workers, women, students and other protesting forces within the country, these currents have largely favoured, in recent years, a strategy based on diplomatic action. lobbying and seeking support from foreign decision-making centres, particularly in Washington and Tel Aviv.

For some of their most radical representatives or supporters, this orientation has sometimes been accompanied by an attitude in favour of intensifying external pressure, or even military escalation, in the hope that the weakening of the regime could pave the way for its overthrow. This stance has sparked fierce controversy, including among the Iranian opposition, with many of its critics accusing it of subordinating the prospects for political change to the interventions and strategic calculations of foreign powers, to the detriment of internal social and popular dynamics.

The Islamabad agreement also highlighted the limits of this strategy of externalizing political change. It has shown that, from the point of view of the great powers, figures such as Reza Pahlavi are not necessarily central actors in a sustainable political project, but can be mobilised in a conjunctural way as part of diplomatic and media pressure strategies. As soon as the evolution of regional and international power relations led Washington to favour the path of negotiation, this form of “opposition under external tutelage” has been largely marginalized and deprived of part of its political function.

A breath of fresh air for social and civic movements in Iran

Therefore, in the light of the available evidence and past experience, there is no evidence that this memorandum will enjoy lasting stability. The deep-rooted mistrust that has structured relations between the two countries for decades, combined with the essentially pragmatic, cyclical and often opportunistic nature of the motivations that led to its conclusion, considerably limits its strategic scope.

More than a step towards a lasting normalization of bilateral relations, this agreement appears to be the product of a provisional balance of power and immediate needs specific to both parties. In this sense, it is not based on the political, institutional and diplomatic foundations generally associated with lasting peace. It is more like a tactical truce, intended to manage a crisis situation and offer a temporary respite to the protagonists, than a substantive settlement of the antagonisms that continue to oppose Washington and Tehran.

However, even this fragile and precarious agreement has had the effect of temporarily removing the heavy, paralyzing and destructive shadow of war from Iranian society. This is probably its most important consequence. For Iranian civil society, the suspension of hostilities is not only a respite from the material and human destruction of a protracted open conflict; it also leads to the weakening of one of the main instruments of legitimation and political control of the regime.

For decades, the authorities have regularly invoked the threat of war, foreign aggression or national insecurity to justify the strengthening of the repressive apparatus, to restrict the space for public freedoms and to postpone any substantive response to the economic, social and democratic demands of the population. In such a context, the temporary mitigation of this threat deprives the government of a central argument that allows it to mobilize public opinion around “national unity” and to relegate internal crises to the background.

From then on, the structural difficulties of Iranian society — inflation, poverty, unemployment, corruption, social inequalities, discrimination against women, political repression and the absence of fundamental freedoms — reappear with greater acuity at the centre of public debate. The relative disappearance of the war factor could thus open up a new space for expression for the social demands accumulated in recent years and help to bring to the fore the conflicts between society and the state rather than those opposing it to external adversaries.

Now, with the temporary mitigation of this external threat, one of the main political protection mechanisms of the system seems to be weakening. The security shield that justified the permanent state of emergency and the priority given to national security imperatives appears less solid than before. The political and social space, long subject to the constraints of an environment marked by the prospect of war, could thus experience a certain relative openness, even if limited and reversible.

The reduction in psychological and security pressures associated with a context of military confrontation creates a new breathing space for society. It favours conditions that are more conducive to the reorganisation of social actors and to the re-emergence of civil demands. In this context, workers, employees, pensioners, teachers, women, students and other sectors of society potentially have an opportunity to make their demands heard outside the atmosphere of urgency and mobilization imposed by the war.

After years marked by the accumulation of economic, social and political frustrations, this period could allow long-repressed, postponed or marginalized demands to reinvest in the public space with greater visibility, coherence and strength. Without prejudging the scale or form that these mobilizations will take, the suspension of hostilities is likely to shift the centre of gravity of the political debate: from external threats to the structural problems of Iranian society itself.

The end of the bombing in no way means the disappearance of the structural crises that are affecting the Iranian economy. Extreme poverty, persistent inflation, massive unemployment, the continued deterioration of household living conditions, as well as systemic discrimination based on gender or ethnicity, remain fully present and continue to produce their effects on a daily basis.

From this perspective, the suspension of external hostilities does not constitute a resolution of internal contradictions, but rather a displacement of the field of conflict. It marks the beginning of a phase in which social and political tensions manifest themselves in a more direct way, less mediated by the logic of war. The relationship between society and the regime is revealed in a more naked, more immediate, and potentially more acute way.

In this context, the authorities’ priorities seem to remain focused on preserving the foundations of their authority and protecting the networks and interests that support the regime’s architecture. This orientation contributes to maintaining a high level of structural tension between the social demands of the population and the imperatives of maintaining power.

In this perspective, while the power clans and the networks of clientelist or mafia-type interests within the state apparatus are reorganizing and repositioning themselves with a view to competing for access to resources and rents in the new environment, the different components of society as well as progressive forces are also confronted with the need to adapt to this new conjuncture.

For the latter, the challenge lies in the ability to take advantage of the transformations underway in order to initiate a social recomposition and a more effective reorganization of their forces. It is less a spontaneous dynamic than a process constrained by the evolution of the balance of forces, which imposes new forms of structuring, coordination and intervention in the social and political space.

Today’s Iranian society is on the verge of potentially decisive transformations. The weight of economic failures has had a direct impact on the working classes, pushing the living conditions of millions of people to increasingly difficult, if not unsustainable, levels.

Faced with this situation, the political system in place, which is authoritarian in nature and highly centralised, tends to favour control and policing mechanisms based on the strengthening of the repressive apparatus. In this context, the management of social tensions is mainly carried out through coercive measures and an intensification of sanctioning practices, which contribute to aggravating the climate of confrontation between the state and a part of society.

When a population perceives that the legal and peaceful channels for expressing its fundamental demands are gradually closing, it is likely that its political commitment will take a more determined and intense form than in previous phases, with a greater charge of anger and demands in the face of the structures in place.

In such a dynamic, the experiences accumulated during previous cycles of mobilization constitute an important political and social achievement. Over the course of a succession of events and confrontations, Iranian society has gradually been transformed, having become more hardened, socially and politically, while developing a more lucid reading of its internal power relations and power mechanisms.

The series of strikes in key sectors of industry, the national mobilizations of pensioners, the large-scale uprising under the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom”, as well as the notable perseverance of teachers, health workers and families of victims, have been major social and political experiences.

These ongoing struggles have contributed to the accumulation of significant gains in terms of collective consciousness, the structuring of demands and the capacity for organisation. They have also participated in the formation of a generation that is bolder and more aware of the social and political challenges it faces, as well as of its own role in the dynamics of future transformation.

These achievements resulting from field experiences are now inscribed in the collective memory of society and constitute one of the main springs of future forms of social and political organization.

Citizens today have a more detailed knowledge of the mechanisms by which security and administrative institutions tend to frame, neutralize or divert social and professional demands. This accumulated experience contributes to a more lucid understanding of power relations and institutional constraints.

In this context, any significant progress in demands, whether professional, social or political, seems to depend more and more on the ability to build forms of sustainable solidarity, to develop networked organisations and to articulate the different social movements more coherently. This dynamic refers to a gradual maturation of modes of collective action and structures of mobilization.

The linking of workers’ networks with teachers’ organisations, the convergence of women’s rights defenders with student movements, as well as forms of mutual support between different categories of employees, are likely to considerably strengthen the capacity for social pressure.

Societal transformations

These developments are part of a set of profound demographic, social and cultural changes that have taken place in recent decades. Over the past forty-seven years, the Iranian social fabric has undergone significant and often irreversible transformations, affecting modes of socialization, political expectations, and forms of collective expression.

In this context, the regime’s capacity for control and ideological framing appears more limited than before. The development of Internet access, the rise of social networks and the diversification of information channels have contributed to weakening the traditional mechanisms of censorship and state monopoly on the public narrative. Moreover, the new generations seem to be inscribed, in their daily lives and their social representations, in increasingly diversified reference frameworks of values, which partly go beyond the framework of official ideology.

The increasingly assertive presence of women in the social, educational and professional spheres, despite legal obstacles and constraints on the public sphere, is a major factor of transformation. It puts patriarchal structures in tension with the traditional frameworks of the organization of power, by introducing social dynamics that gradually question their foundations.

In this context, women’s greater access to education, work and social life contributes to redefining existing social relations and to changing the cultural balances on which certain forms of authority are based. This evolution is part of a broader process of recomposition of social norms and collective expectations.

In parallel with these transformations, the human geography of the country has also undergone significant changes. The creation of vast areas of precarious housing on the outskirts of major cities, with a population estimated at more than twenty million people, is part of the continuation of profound economic changes, linked in particular to policies of unequal redistribution of resources, to rent dynamics, as well as to processes of environmental fragility and unbalanced urban development.

These peri-urban areas concentrate a high proportion of precarious workers, the unemployed and populations excluded from the formal circuits of the economy. Often characterized by limited access to public services and infrastructure, they reflect marked forms of territorial inequalities. These areas are also perceived as areas of high social tension, where economic frustrations and feelings of exclusion accumulate, thus contributing to the reconfiguration of the relationship between centre and periphery within Iranian society.

Assuming that it manages to articulate itself with independent organisations, to develop class consciousness and to be part of structured forms of organisation, this vast population could constitute a determining factor in the dynamics of social and political transformation.

Such a development would however depend on the ability to build sustainable mobilisation frameworks, capable of transforming situations of social fragmentation into an organised collective force, likely to significantly influence the existing social balances.

The organisation of this part of society could profoundly modify its place in social relations, by making it move from a condition of victims of the dynamics of unequal development to that of a structured collective actor, likely to weigh significantly in political relations.

In such a configuration, and in articulation with the industrial working class, it could constitute a decisive social force capable of bending the existing balances of power and calling into question the mechanisms of domination and control of the state apparatus. However, this perspective depends closely on the concrete conditions of organisation, coordination and convergence of the different components of the social field.

In the absence of a sufficiently developed class consciousness (which refers to multiple factors) and in the absence of independent organisational structures, the social energy accumulated in these peripheral spaces can be directed towards unstable and potentially dangerous trajectories.

This intensity of frustration, if not channelled into structured collective perspectives and progressive goals, can be co-opted by reactionary, populist or opportunist currents. In such configurations, different political or ideological forces seek to exploit situations of social distress and economic precariousness, mobilizing simplistic discourses and demagogic slogans in order to capitalize on discontent.

This type of dynamic can thus divert a broad-rooted social anger from its main structural causes — linked to the mechanisms of exploitation and systemic inequality — to redirect it towards objectives that distort its initial meaning. In some cases, this recomposition can encourage the emergence of new forms of authoritarianism, the exacerbation of social divisions or the consolidation of exclusive and anti-democratic political projects.

From this perspective, the organized presence of civic and worker activists in these social spaces appears, according to this analysis, to be a determining factor for the structuring of mobilizations. It would help to avoid the dispersion of collective energies and to strengthen the capacity of social movements to formulate coherent demands, while limiting the risks of political recuperation by forces hostile to democratic and social dynamics.

The demands of the different social strata can be understood as interdependent components of the same social whole. The demands for housing, health, free and quality education, as well as universal social protection systems, are closely linked to fundamental civil and political rights.

From this perspective, economic and social rights cannot be dissociated from fundamental freedoms such as freedom of expression, freedom of independent organisation and individual freedom of choice, including dress. All of these demands thus form a coherent continuum, where the social, economic and political dimensions reinforce each other within the same logic of emancipation.

The repressive policy adopted by the regime in the face of even the most basic union demands tends to accelerate the politicization of these social movements. In this configuration, the government appears to be reluctant to any form of reform, perceiving the slightest concession or flexibility as a risk likely to weaken, or even destabilize, the entire political edifice.

This institutional lock-in contributes to broadening the scope of demands, which are no longer limited to sectoral demands but tend, progressively, to question the overall structure of the system. Initial demands, made in a professional or social context, can thus be transformed into a broader challenge to the mechanisms of governance and distribution of resources.

In this context, the Iranian workers’ movement occupies a particularly central place in contemporary social dynamics. Workers in the industrial, service and petrochemical sectors, by mobilizing tools such as strikes and production stoppages, have a potential capacity to have a significant impact on the functioning of the economy. This strategic position makes it a major player in social power relations, without, however, prejudging the concrete conditions of their organization and coordination.

The blossoming of this social potential depends largely on its ability to converge with other components of the social and progressive movement. A closer articulation with women’s mobilizations, national teachers’ organizations, pensioners’ associations, student movements, environmental activists as well as the different peoples confronted with forms of national oppression could strengthen the coherence and scope of these dynamics.

For strategic thinking

In this perspective, the central question lies in the construction of forms of coordination and convergence that make it possible to overcome the fragmentation of sectoral struggles, in order to promote the emergence of a common space of demands and collective action. Such a dynamic would constitute a determining factor in the ability of social forces to influence the existing balance of power.

The formation of a united front of the forces of labour and the working classes is often presented, in some analyses, as a major strategic condition for a lasting change in the balance of forces in favour of the popular classes. Such convergence would aim to strengthen the capacity for collective action and to increase the political and social weight of the demands coming from the different segments of the world of work.

Finally, the re-examination of recent developments and the analysis of the nature of the agreements concluded between power blocs highlight a historical reality that is difficult to dispute, from this perspective: the cost of the main strategic decisions taken by the ruling classes — whether it be military adventurism, engagement in proxy wars, sanctions policies and economic blockades, and so on, or the signing of compromises and tactical ceasefires — tends to be disproportionately supported by the working classes.

The working population appears to be the first to be exposed to the social, economic and material consequences of political choices that are made at institutional and state levels that are largely disconnected from their daily experience. This asymmetry feeds, in turn, lasting structural tensions between the spheres of decision-making and the social realities on which they are exercised.

From this perspective, the different components of the system of power — whether military-security structures or other decision-making centres — as well as the actors who face them, tend to externalize the costs of their strategies of survival, compromise and preservation of interests. These costs then disproportionately affect the living conditions of the most vulnerable populations, affecting their access to essential resources, their health and, more broadly, their social security.

A precise understanding of the internal contradictions of power and the adoption of tactics of struggle adapted to the historical and social context constitute, in this perspective, an important prerequisite for overcoming the current crises. The strategic challenge of such organizational cohesion and a more structured class consciousness is often formulated as the possibility of modifying the existing balance of forces to the benefit of the majority social strata.

From this perspective, it would be a question of limiting the hold of networks of power and wealth accumulation considered to be concentrated in the hands of organized minorities, while opening the way to a more profound transformation of the social and political order. The objective thus envisaged refers to the construction of an institutional and social framework perceived as more equitable, more democratic and more respectful of the fundamental rights of individuals.

30 June 2026

Translated by International Viewpoint from A l’encontre.

Footnotes

[1] Photo: J.D. Vance negotiating the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran in Switzerland.

[2] The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) is an agreement signed in Vienna, Austria, on 14 July 2015, by the following eight parties: Iran, the P5+1 countries – China, France, United Kingdom. United States, Germany – as well as the European Union.

 

Iran persecutes its Baha’i minority fiercely in a year of protests and war, rights groups say

(AP) — This year, amid massive anti-government protests and war with the United States and Israel, the Islamic Republic has mounted a fierce crackdown on the country’s largest non-Muslim religious minority, human rights groups say.

Peyvand Naimi has spent more than six months in an Iranian prison, accused of killing state security agents during nationwide protests, although his family says no formal charges or evidence have been presented. “The Baha’is will not be released,” the family says it was told by the prosecutor.

Ever since the Baha’i faith was founded in Persia — now Iran — in the 19th century, its followers there have been persecuted, usually more harshly during times of crisis.

This year, amid massive anti-government protests and war with the United States and Israel, the Islamic Republic has mounted a fierce crackdown on the country’s largest non-Muslim religious minority, human rights groups say.

Since January, dozens of Baha’is have been imprisoned because of their faith, human rights groups say. Holy books and religious symbols have been desecrated during raids of Baha’i family homes — which these groups say is evidence of authorities’ sectarian motivations. Those detained have faced mistreatment ranging from electric shocks to mock hangings, and some have made forced confessions to crimes punishable by death, rights groups say.

The Islamic Republic’s intensified campaign against Baha’is is part of a wider crackdown across Iran. Nationwide protests that began in late December prompted the deadliest backlash by Iranian security forces since the Islamic Republic took power in 1979, with thousands killed and tens of thousands reportedly arrested.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry and its spokesperson at the United Nations didn’t respond to multiple requests to discuss the treatment of Baha’is.

The targeting of Baha’is, who make up less than 1% of Iran’s population, is hardly discreet: The authoritarian government often uses state TV and social media to accuse followers of being spies and blame them for the country’s economic woes.

“Every time there is a crisis — social, economic, or political — shift the blame to the Baha’is,” said Simin Fahandej, who represents the international community of Baha’is at the United Nations. “And this (year’s) protest and the war have also been no different.”

While Baha’is often practice their religion in secret, the Iranian public is encouraged to report on neighbors if they are known or suspected followers of the faith, which is considered immoral by the country’s ruling clerics.

“Much of this portrayal stems from theological hostility,” said Omid Ghaemmaghami, an associate professor of Middle East Studies at the State University of New York at Binghamton. He and other experts said the scapegoating of Baha’is also serves to instill fear and obedience among other Iranians.

A confession made under duress

Naimi was arrested at work on the afternoon of Jan. 8 by agents from Iran’s intelligence ministry, according to his family, which insists he did not participate in anti-government protests. Amnesty International says the alleged killings of three Basij agents during Jan. 8 protests in Kerman took place after he was arrested. The government has not publicized any details about the alleged killings.

On Feb. 1, Iranian state TV broadcast a clip of him admitting to taking part in the protests, though his family says the confession was made under duress.

Authorities also accused Naimi of “celebrating” from prison the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening salvos of the Iran war, according to the Baha’i International Community. The group said Naimi at the time had no access to communications and “no knowledge” of Khamenei’s death.

Naimi told his family over the phone that he was held in solitary confinement in Kerman Central Prison for over two months, according to Fahandej.

Naimi’s cousin Emilia Nazari said a judge ordered Naimi’s release on March 7, but that he remained behind bars. Soon after, family members visited the prosecutor’s office every day for more than a week to demand his release. That is when the family says the prosecutor told them it would never happen — and referred to Naimi only by his religion.

When his parents visited him in late March, he told them he had been subjected to 10 days of harsh treatment that included denial of food, Nazari said. In mid-May, his family learned that he was transferred out of solitary and into a cell among the general population at the Kerman prison, Nazari said.

Baha’is have a long history of persecution in Iran

The Baha’i faith was founded in the 1860s by a Persian nobleman named Baha’u’llah, who was considered a prophet by his followers. He taught that all religions represent progressive stages in the revelation of God’s will, leading to the unity of all people and faiths.

There are more than 5 million Baha’is across the world, according to Harvard University’s The Pluralism Project. Most live in Asia, with the largest community in India.

Baha’is also face persecution in Egypt, Qatar and Yemen. But the mistreatment is greatest in Iran, where Shiite Muslim clerics have regarded the faith as heretical since its earliest days.

After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, many Baha’is fled Iran in the face of arrests, executions, property seizures, and restrictions on education and employment. Some stayed, while others have returned in the ensuing decades. An estimated 300,000 Baha’is live in Iran, whose population exceeds 90 million.

Many Baha’is feel a sense of purpose by remaining in Iran, said Sheyda Kamran, a professor at the Baha’i Institute for Higher Education. Despite living in fear, her students often ask how they can help Iranians grieving losses from protests and war. “They have a goal,” she said. “That is the only way they can survive.”

Scapegoating intensified after war began

The crackdown against Baha’is — and all Iranians — intensified after the U.S. and Israel launched the war in late February.

The Baha’i International Community says at least 63 Baha’is were detained in Iranian prisons as of June 11, though it says the figure is likely an undercount because some families fear speaking out.

Most detainees are being held without known charges, while others face accusations of “propaganda against the regime” and acts deemed “contrary to Islamic law,” the Human Rights Activists News Agency said on X.

Some Iranian television outlets and social media accounts have amplified anti-Baha’i rhetoric in recent months, accusing followers of the faith of collaborating with Israel to undermine the Islamic Republic.

In May, in the northern Mazandaran province, an exhibition open to the public portrayed Baha’is as enemies of the state, according to IRNA, the Iranian state-run news agency. A representative for Iran’s supreme leader who attended the exhibition, Mohammad Baqer Mohammadi Laini, said Baha’is are “spies” and should be banned from owning property, according to the semiofficial news agency Tasnim.

The highly publicized harassment of Baha’is suggests the real purpose is to instill fear among all Iranians, said Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, founder of Iran Human Rights, an Oslo-based organization.

“I think it’s part of the general intensification of the repression in Iran,” he said.

Baha’is paying a ‘heavy price’ for remaining in Iran

In April, Behzad Basiri was arrested by Revolutionary Guard agents at his house in Shiraz — without any charges, according to his family, which said Baha’i holy books were torn up during the raid. His wife Mandana Sotoudeh was arrested the same day at her parents’ house and her sister Mahsa Sotoudeh had been detained three days earlier.

Basiri was released on bail on May 6; his wife and sister-in-law were released on bail on July 1, according to their family.

Basiri’s sister, Roya, who lives in Canada, said some of her family members chose to stay in Iran out of love for the country and hope for a better future.

“They’re paying the heavy price for that choice,” she said.

 

Many US Jewish adults have experienced assault or harassment over the past year, AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON (AP) — The findings highlight the vulnerability that many Jewish adults in the U.S. feel as bipartisan support for Israel erodes and significant divides emerge within the Jewish community about what constitutes antisemitism — particularly when it comes to protesting Israel.


WASHINGTON (AP) — Many Jewish adults feel unsafe in the United States, a new AP-NORC poll finds, with a majority saying they feel less safe than they did before Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

The survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research points to how Jewish adults’ attitudes toward their own personal safety have changed over a relatively short period as more Americans became critical of the United States’ close alliance with Israel. The war in Gaza sparked U.S. protests over Israel’s military actions against the Palestinians in Gaza, and coincided with an increase in violent attacks against U.S. Jewish communities.

The findings highlight the vulnerability that many Jewish adults in the U.S. feel as bipartisan support for Israel erodes and significant divides emerge within the Jewish community about what constitutes antisemitism — particularly when it comes to protesting Israel.

A significant share of Jewish adults, about 3 in 10, say they or someone in their household has experienced physical assault, verbal abuse, online harassment or damaged property because of their Jewish background over the last year, according to the survey.

Hal Guberman, a 30-year-old in New Jersey, wears a kippah with some trepidation ever since a stranger in a passing car yelled a slur at him when he was walking down the street last year.

“That person, they don’t know anything about me. They don’t know my politics. They don’t know my beliefs. They don’t know my viewpoints,” Guberman said. “But they saw me being visibly Jewish, and they made an opinion about me.”

Jewish adults see prejudice against Jews as a serious problem, and many feel unsafe

About 6 in 10 Jewish adults say that prejudice against Jewish people is an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the United States today, a view that is heightened among Jewish adults who say they are “extremely” or “very” emotionally attached to Israel.

About one-third of Jewish adults say they feel “very” or “somewhat” safe as a Jewish person in the U.S. today, while about one-third feel “very” or “somewhat” unsafe. The remaining roughly 3 in 10 say they feel neither safe nor unsafe. Those with a close connection to Israel or who identify as Jewish by religion — instead of saying they are religiously unaffiliated with a cultural, ethnic or family connection to Judaism — are more likely to feel threatened in the current environment.

About 6 in 10 Jewish adults say they feel “less safe” as a Jewish person in the U.S. than they did before Hamas’ 2023 attack, including about 7 in 10 of those who are religiously Jewish. About one-third of Jewish adults say they feel “about as safe” and very few feel safer.

Erin Baskin, a 36-year-old in Pennsylvania, said the Oct. 7 attacks didn’t change how safe she feels because she had her own experiences with prejudice before then.

“I’ve always grown up with antisemitism,” she said. “Among the rural community I’m in, they conflate Judaism with Zionism all the time. Unfortunately, that’s kind of been my experience. It’s nothing new.”

Some Jewish adults have grown wary of outwardly identifying themselves as Jewish following the Oct. 7 attacks, the survey found.

About 4 in 10 Jewish adults say they are “less likely” to wear, carry or display things that might identify them as a Jewish person than they were before Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. About half say they are “about as likely” and about 1 in 10 say they are “more likely.”

Caitlin Rosendorn, a 24-year-old in Illinois, said they used to wear a Star of David necklace, but now worries that wearing it could give people the incorrect impression that they support Israel’s attacks against the Palestinian people.

“I don’t want to wear a Star of David to work if that’s going to alienate somebody who sees the Star of David as a symbol of Israel as opposed to a symbol of Judaism,” Rosendorn said. “I don’t want people to get the wrong idea about my views.”

Many Jews report physical assault, property damage or harassment

About 1 in 10 Jewish adults say that in the past year, they or someone in their household has been physically assaulted. A similar share had property damaged or destroyed specifically because of their Jewish background.

About 2 in 10 Jewish adults say they or someone in their household has been called a slur, threatened, verbally harassed or verbally abused. Similarly, about 2 in 10 say they experienced online harassment or cyberbullying. Overall, about 3 in 10 of Jewish adults say that they or someone in their household has experienced at least one of these incidents because of their Jewish background.

Jewish adults who attend religious services at least once a month are much likelier than Jewish adults overall to say they or someone in their household has experienced attacks or harassment over their Jewish background — a finding that comes as there have been several targeted attacks on Jewish religious spaces in recent years.

Slightly less than half of Jewish adults who frequently attend religious services say they or someone in their household has faced verbal harassment. A similar share experienced online harassment, and about one-quarter have dealt with physical attacks or property damage.

Jon Kessler, 38, of California, who grew up in the Conservative tradition of Judaism, believes non-Jews might be surprised at the extent to which Jewish adults have to consider security at community events.

“Most people when they go to church don’t have armed security, but every synagogue has an armed security guard,” Kessler said. “My son’s Jewish daycare has an armed security guard.”

Jews are divided over whether protesting Israel is a form of antisemitism

Protests surrounding speakers tied to Israel — whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanahyu’s address to Congress or college speakers seen as either too supportive or too critical of the country — became more common following the backlash over Israel’s war in Gaza.

Jewish adults, in particular, are divided over whether protesting an event related to Israel is an act of prejudice against Jewish people generally. About half of Jewish adults say anti-Israel protests are not a form of antisemitism, but roughly 4 in 10 say they are.

Many anti-Israel protests have been tied to criticism of Israel’s military action in Gaza. More than 73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza since Israel retaliated against Hamas’ attack in 2023, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and militant deaths.

About two-thirds of Jewish adults say criticizing Israel for its military actions is not a form of antisemitism, but Jewish adults with a close emotional connection to Israel are more likely to say that criticism of Israel’s military actions is antisemitic. That said, relatively few Jewish adults say it’s antisemitic just to criticize Israel for “any reason.”

Americans overall are less likely to say it’s antisemitic to protest an event that is supportive of Israel, or to criticize Israel’s military actions — but they are also much less likely to have an opinion.

Jewish adults are more unified in deeming some actions as definitively antisemitic. The overwhelming majority say vandalizing synagogues or Jewish-owned businesses because of Israel’s actions is antisemitism. The same goes for denying the reality or scope of the Holocaust, putting responsibility for Israel’s actions on Jewish people in the United States, saying Israel shouldn’t exist as a Jewish state or claiming American Jews are more loyal to Israel than to the U.S.

There is less consensus among non-Jewish U.S. adults on whether some of these actions constitute antisemitism, with many saying they’re not sure.

Amanda Goldsmith, 53, who lives in Chicago, believes people have become too comfortable expressing antisemitic views online — something that she previously thought only existed in extremist spaces.

“Now, it seems like there was an undercurrent, and it’s a free-for-all, and everyone is free to say what they want,” she said. “The freedom with which people say horrible things about Jewish people is appalling.”

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This story has been corrected to show that Caitlin Rosendorn uses they/them pronouns.

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Associated Press writers Giovanna Dell’Orto in Minneapolis and Peter Smith in Pittsburgh contributed to this report.

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Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

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The AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults was conducted June 11-17 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll included interviews with 1,022 Jewish adults. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points and the margin of sampling error for Jewish adults is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.

The Inconvenient Jew Is One of Zionism’s Biggest Problems


by | Jul 14, 2026 |

Reprinted with permission from The Jason Jones Show substack.

Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter recently offered what he apparently believed was a devastating answer to those decrying the genocide in Gaza.

“Jews do not use children’s blood for rituals,” Leiter said. “Jews do not poison wells. And Jews do not starve populations or commit genocide.”

The smear in this common Zionist talking point is obvious: Those who accuse the Israeli government belong in the same moral category as those who spread medieval blood libels against innocent Jews. To say the regime of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has committed genocide is not merely to criticize a government, an army, or a political ideology. It is to accuse “the Jews.”

But there is a growing problem for Zionism and its favorite smear: the moral indignation of Jews.

According to a new AP-NORC poll, 30% of Jewish adults in the United States say Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. Only 49% say it has not. Among religiously unaffiliated Jews, the share rises to about four in ten. Also, only about four in ten Jewish adults believe Israel’s continuing military operations in Gaza are justified, while roughly six in ten view Netanyahu unfavorably.

In light of the grave public perspective of a growing percentage of Jews, the Zionists look more and more foolish. Their go-to argument – if you can even call this substanceless insult an argument – has become an argument ad absurdum: Nearly one-third of American Jews, Zionists believe, are secretly medieval antisemites; Jewish critics of Netanyahu believe Jews poison wells; Jews who watch children starve in Gaza and call it genocide are not morally serious observers but morons trafficking in blood libel … against themselves.

But the absurdity is rapidly leading to yet another Zionist offense – as if a genocide were not enough. Since the inconvenient Jew is now one of Zionism’s biggest problems, the Jew himself – insofar as he accepts the universal human principles that genocide flies in the face of – must be treated as an impossibility.

He cannot be debated honestly, because his very existence blows the argument apart. He proves that Jewish identity does not require loyalty to Netanyahu. He proves that revulsion at starving children is not (forgive the grotesque suggestion – it is not mine but Zionism’s) an anti-Jewish prejudice.

So Zionism does to the inconvenient Jew what it does to every inconvenient person.

It erases him.

He becomes “self-hating,” “brainwashed,” “disloyal,” or – perhaps most insultingly of all – “not a real Jew.”

Insulting, yes. But I should add that to be insulted by a Zionist in 2026 – after nearly three years of genocide in the name of Zionism and yet another bloody campaign explicitly modeled on Israel’s Gaza operation now underway in Lebanon – is a badge of honor.

Let’s look again at Leiter’s formulation. He did not say “The evidence does not prove that the Israeli government has committed genocide.”

He said “Jews do not commit genocide.”

That substitution is doing all the work.

In the place of a morally indefensible government, the Zionist propaganist places an entire people — millions of human beings scattered across countries, cultures, religious practices, and political convictions — summoned as a human shield around the Netanyahu government.

Nothing could be further from a genuine defense of Jews than Zionist rhetoric. It is the opposite: A grotesque use of Jews. And worse: An attempt to make them morally complicit in what – as the polling shows – many of them reject.

Don’t get me wrong, by the way. I’m not addressing myself to Jews, as if I’m in a position to explain their own interests to them. And it should come as no surprise to anyone that, according to the same poll cited above, two-thirds of Jewish adults surveyed already understand (and said in the poll) that criticizing Israel’s military actions is not antisemitic. About half also said anti-Israel protests are not inherently antisemitic.

They get something Israel’s ambassador pretends not to get: attacking a Jewish person because he is Jewish is not the same thing as judging Zionist ideology or the actions of a government operating in its name.

I wrote recently that in light of the spread of the shocking truth about Israel’s conduct in Gaza, the ideology of Zionism is committing suicide by genocide.

This new poll reveals another reason why that’s the case: Jews are among the most convincing witnesses to the genocide. And every time Zionist spokesmen respond by erasing those Jews, they make their own fraudulence more obvious.

And so the Jew now standing in solidarity with the vulnerable Palestinian, is now vulnerable to the same attacks. But – in another twist of fate that makes the Jew very much like the Palestinian – the harder Zionism tries to make inconvenient Jew disappear, the more clearly everyone else can see him.

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