Isabella Fertel, USA TODAY
Thu, August 10, 2023
The claim: Climate change is a 'scam' because the US was hotter in 1913 than 2023
A July 30 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) shows a screenshot of a post from X, formerly Twitter, that includes side-by-side maps of the U.S. with a scattering of red dots.
“The US was much hotter in 1913 – left – than 2023 – right,” reads the text in the X post. “1913 was 86% of industrial era atmospheric CO2 ago (sic). So much for claims of emissions-driven heat.”
The Instagram caption adds, "All they do is lie with their fake #climatescam to extend power and control."
The Instagram post was liked nearly 300 times in two weeks. The X post garnered more than 1,000 reposts in one week.
Follow us on Facebook! Like our page to get updates throughout the day on our latest debunks
Our rating: False
Climate experts said the post’s method of determining which year was hotter based on the number of high-temperature days is not scientifically valid. The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. in 2023 is set to be hotter than that of 1913, continuing a decades-long trend of warming. Scientists have ample evidence that modern climate change is driven by greenhouse gases released from human activity.
1913 was not a hotter year than 2023, contrary to posts
The maps in the post purportedly track instances where temperatures have reached and exceeded 100 degrees across the U.S. in both 1913 and 2023.
The post also includes a link to an article containing the same maps, but neither the post nor the article specify the source of the information the maps are based upon.
Regardless, climate scientists say the method of counting high-temperature spikes is not a valid way to determine if one year was hotter than another.
"Climate trends should only be inferred from long-term datasets,” Sean Birkel, a climatologist and research assistant professor at the University of Maine, previously told USA TODAY. “Long-term warming trends are clear based on data going back several decades to more than a century.”
While the world’s hottest recorded air temperature was indeed recorded in Death Valley, California, on July 10, 1913, it is a “complete untruth” that 1913 was a hotter year than 2023, said Howard Diamond, a senior climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Air Resources Laboratory.
The posts “have no basis in science and are not reflective of the state of today's surface temperatures either in the U.S. or globally,” Diamond said.
The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 51.5 degrees in 1913, according to NOAA data. Diamond noted this year was comparatively cooler than temperatures later on in that century. NOAA data shows it ranked as the 27th-coolest year in the 1900s.
While the data for 2023 is not yet available, the average annual temperature of the contiguous U.S. was 53.4 degrees in 2022, according to NOAA. The average temperature across the country has consistently been above the 1901-2000 mean since 1997.
Fact check: Climate change measured in decades, day to day temperature
Environmental Protection Agency spokesperson Shayla Powell concurred, stating the increase in temperatures from 1913 to 2023 is even more apparent at the global scale.
Globally, average surface temperatures have increased by an average of about .1 degrees per decade since 1880, or about 2 degrees in total, according to data from multiple climate agencies. The rate of warming since 1981 has nearly doubled, with global temperatures continuing to increase at a rate of more than 0.3 degrees per decade since the 1980s.
Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. have warmed ahead of the global rate since the late 1970s, according to data from the EPA.
Carbon dioxide emissions unequivocally driving modern climate change
The X post used the temperature spike data to assert human emissions aren't driving global warming, but scientists have ample evidence that modern climate change is driven by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, like burning fossil fuels.
Human activities are releasing more carbon dioxide than natural processes can remove, causing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to build. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide absorb and radiate heat, warming up the Earth’s atmosphere and surface temperatures.
Fact check: Carbon dioxide has an effect on the climate, contrary to post
In 2013, atmospheric carbon dioxide surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time since scientists started tracking levels in the mid-twentieth century. NOAA reported a high of 417 parts per million in 2022.
USA TODAY reached out to the X user who shared the post for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
Our fact-check sources:
USA TODAY, Feb. 27, Fact check: Carbon dioxide has an effect on the climate, contrary to post
USA TODAY, May 31, 2022, Fact check: Climate change measured in decades, day to day temperature fluctuation common
Howard Diamond, Aug. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Shayla Powell, Aug. 5, Email exchange with USA TODAY
National Parks Service, Jan. 27, Death Valley: Weather
NOAA Climate at a Glance, accessed Aug. 7, Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature
NOAA, Jan. 10, Assessing the U.S. Climate in 2022
NOAA, Jan. 18, Climate Change: Global Temperature
NOAA, May 12, Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
NOAA, accessed Aug. 7, Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
NASA Earth Observatory, accessed Aug. 7, World of Change: Global Temperatures
EPA, Dec. 30, 2022, Climate Change Science: Impacts of Climate Change
EPA, July 21, Climate Change Indicators: U.S. and Global Temperature
MIT Climate Portal, accessed Aug. 7, How much carbon dioxide does the Earth naturally absorb?
Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or e-newspaper here.
Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: False claim 1913 was a warmer year than 2023 in the US | Fact check
No comments:
Post a Comment