Key Takeaways
Russia Facing Multiple Crises — Russia is suffering heavy casualties (up to 1,500/day), recruitment desperation (using prisoners, migrants, disabled), collapsing refining capacity, fuel shortages, economic strain (defense spending at 40% of budget), declining public support, and growing elite/military blogger dissent.
Putin’s Regime in Increasing Trouble — Putin is increasingly isolated and detached, cancelling major public events out of fear. His options are limited: escalation risks domestic instability, while continuing the war leads to further degradation. Time is not on Russia’s side, and the convergence of military, economic, and political pressures is pushing toward a potential turning point.
Analysis
Russia is losing its war against Ukraine, and a decisive turning point is approaching. This conclusion draws on Russian military sources, internal documents, polling data, and frontline reporting to build a comprehensive picture of Vladimir Putin’s regime in crisis. The convergence of five mutually reinforcing dynamics—military defeat, economic and financial collapse, public discontent, dissent among Russian nationalists and military bloggers, and elite fears of a coup and assassinations—contribute to Russia losing its war against Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Strategic Plan
Rather than pursuing the kind of large-scale territorial offensive that failed in Summer 2023, Ukraine has adopted what former Defence Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk calls “strategic neutralization.” The approach does not aim primarily at recapturing territory through direct military confrontation, but at systematically degrading Russia’s capacity and will to fight. Ukraine disrupts Russian logistics, destroys supply lines, and strikes high-value targets deep inside Russian territory. This strategy is underpinned by what Zagorodnyuk terms a “Revolution in Military Affairs”—Ukraine’s rapid and largely private-sector-driven innovation in drone technology, precision strikes, and battlefield coordination.
The results have been remarkable. By May 2026, Ukraine was for the first time launching more drones and missiles into Russia than Russia was firing into Ukraine. In the first half of 2026 alone, Ukraine struck approximately 800,000 Russian targets.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyy described the strategy as maintaining the initiative by exhausting Russia while building Ukrainian reserves, striking where Russia is weakest, and steadily liberating occupied territory. Ukraine established a Deep Strike Command Center in January 2026 to coordinate attacks, and medium-range drones have effectively replaced the U.S.-supplied HIMARS systems as the primary tool for striking Russian logistics and troop concentrations.
Ukraine will acquire ballistic missiles by autumn 2026—the hardest category of weapon to intercept—just as Russian air defences are approaching near-total degradation. Political, military and security HQs in Moscow and St. Petersburg will be high value targets for Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
Russian Military Degradation
Russia’s battlefield position has deteriorated sharply. Russia seized only 0.4 percent of Ukrainian territory in all of 2024, barely 0.2 percent more by mid-2025, and just 164 square kilometres in the first quarter of 2026—compared to 1,151 square kilometres in the same period the year before. Since Winter 2025–2026, Ukraine has liberated 400 square kilometres of occupied territory.
Meanwhile, Russian casualties are staggering: the Defence Ministry recorded 36,000 Russian casualties in March 2026 alone, with 90 percent caused by Ukrainian drones, exceeding Russia’s monthly volunteer recruitment figures. In April, Russia was losing approximately 1,500 soldiers per day.
Russia is increasingly filling these losses from the margins of Russian society – alcoholics, drug addicts, and men with severe physical disabilities. Video footage of these recruits waiting at deployment centres has circulated widely on Russian social media. Russia’s pre-war prisoner population of 465,000 has fallen to 282,000, with the remainder deterred by news of very high death rates. Migrants from Africa and Central Asia lured with false promises of employment are forcibly conscripted and sent to the front. Students are being pressured to enlist, and businesses are being levied for recruits. Russia’s recruitment plan for 2026—409,000 soldiers—is being fulfilled at only 60–75 percent.
The quality of the army reflects its composition. Russian soldiers are sent on “meat assaults” without body armour, artillery support, or adequate supplies. Officers steal from their soldiers’ bank accounts and demand bribes to avoid suicide missions. Blocking units composed of convicts shoot soldiers who retreat.
A Russian deserter described his officers’ culture as defined by “fear, corruption and indifference.” Desertion doubled in 2024–2025 to 70,000. Internal documents hacked by Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service show that Russia’s General Staff privately acknowledges the army cannot achieve Putin’s stated goal of occupying all of Ukraine. Russian security analyst Vasily Kashin has conceded that the goal of “liquidating the anti-Russian regime” in Ukraine is “fundamentally unattainable” and that Russia “lacks the capacity to sustainably control and manage” additional occupied territories.
Economic Crisis
Russia’s financial position is equally dire. Defence spending has reached 40 percent of the federal budget—a record $146.4 billion—and total defence outlays since 2022 are estimated at $522 billion. Russia’s economic reserves are nearly exhausted, according to the Minister of Economic Development.
In the first quarter of 2026, government revenues were $11.7 trillion against outlays of $17.6 trillion. Business profits fell 33 percent year-on-year. Nearly half of small businesses are operating at a loss. Large numbers of Russians are withdrawing savings at a 30-year record pace, with central bank officials floating the possibility of deposit confiscation.
Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure have compounded fiscal pressure. In May 2026, strikes rendered inoperable refineries in Kstovo, Ryazan, Taman, Yaroslavl, Perm, Kirishi, Samara, Primorsk, and Tuapse—among Russia’s most critical refining capacity. The Tuapse refinery, which handles 12 million tonnes annually, has been attacked repeatedly; 28 of its 47 storage tanks have been damaged or destroyed.
The resulting fuel shortages have sparked a regional state of emergency in Krasnodar Krai and contributed to a major fuel crisis in Crimea and Russian-occupied southeastern Ukraine. The fuel crisis has also spread to the rest of Russia, including Moscow, undermining public confidence in Putin and the government. Energy rich Russia is importing oil from Kazakhstan.
Oil export revenues have halved relative to the previous year despite higher global oil prices, as Ukrainian strikes and Western sanctions take simultaneous effect. Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy installations have prevented it from higher oil prices brought on by the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Public Discontent and Elite Fractures
Russia’s public mood has shifted. The Levada Centre reported in April 2026 that 64 percent of Russians believe it is time to negotiate an end to the war, with only 24 percent supporting continued military action. Nevertheless, many of these Russians continue to refuse to countenance returning occupied territory to Ukraine.
VTsIOM (Russian Public Opinion Research Center) found only 29.5 percent of Russians named Putin as a politician they trust. Meanwhile nearly two thirds of Russians expressed a negative view of developments in the country. State television—once the primary instrument of Kremlin propaganda and public mobilization—has seen its audience share as a news source fall from 60 percent to 47 percent since 2022.
Among Russian military bloggers and Russian nationalists, criticism is intensifying. Prominent blogger Ilya Remeslo has publicly called Putin “not a legitimate president” who “must resign and be brought to trial as a war criminal.” He predicts a “palace coup” or “revolution” producing “profound changes” in late 2026 or early 2027. These views are becoming increasingly typical for military bloggers and nationalists.
Russian elites are increasingly divided between those who favour ending the war and those who insist on pressing forward, with the hawks now “persuading, defending and fighting back” rather than dominating the debate—a significant reversal.
Putin Detached From Reality
Against this backdrop, Putin is increasingly portrayed—including by Russians—as detached from reality and politically vulnerable. His approval ratings are declining; VTsIOM has ceased publishing weekly figures since late April 2026. Putin is mockingly referred to as “grandpa in the bunker” in Russian discourse because he lives in bunkers and never uses mobile phones or the Internet.
Ukraine’s attacks on Moscow and St. Petersburg—including strikes timed to embarrass Putin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2026—have exposed the hollowness of his strongman image. Putin cancelled a public military parade on 9May 9 “Victory Day” for the first time since 2008, citing the risk of Ukrainian attacks. Parades on Russia Day and Navy Day have also been cancelled.
The structural weaknesses embedded in Russia’s corrupt, hyper-centralized system cannot be resolved by escalation or full mobilization, which would destroy the regime’s unwritten social contract with the Russian population.
Time is decisively not on Putin’s side, and the growing crisis is increasingly becoming a threat to his regime. This is reflected in Putin’s paranoia. Ukraine’s campaign of “strategic neutralization” has made Crimea into an isolated island and is turning Russia’s size, which had been an advantage in the past against foreign invasions, into a disadvantage as it is impossible to provide air defence for every oil and gas installation, each military factor and military and air bases.
Putin’s options are limited. Escalation, through mobilisation, would be highly unpopular and threaten political instability – without bringing benefits on the battlefield. Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov said Ukrainian forces would respond by increasing their monthly kill rate from 35,000 to 50, 000. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is counting on Putin being forced to deescalate and return to the negotiating table without his hitherto maximalist demands.
Irrespective of what decision Putin makes, different crises are coming together that ae contributing to Russia losing its war against Ukraine.
About Dr. Taras Kuzio
Taras Kuzio is a professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. He is co-author of The Four Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine (Cambridge University Press, 2026); co-editor of Russia and Modern Fascism: New Perspectives on the Kremlin’s War Against Ukraine (Columbia University Press, 2025); Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win (Jamestown Foundation, 2024), and Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War (Routledge, 2022). He can be found on X/Twitter @TarasKuzio
View all posts by Dr. Taras Kuzio →
Ukraine strikes oil infrastructure sites near Saint Petersburg, Zelenskyy says
It comes after Moscow launched a massive drone and missile barrage at Kyiv earlier this week, killing at least 30 people and hitting more than 20 sites across the city.
Ukrainian forces carried out strikes on oil infrastructure sites near the Russian city of Saint Petersburg on Friday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced.
In a post on X, Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit "port oil infrastructure that generates revenue for Russia's war".
"There were also successful strikes on Kronstadt – an important military target. The distance from Ukraine's state border is more than 850 kilometers," he added.
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of Russia's Leningrad Oblast, had earlier reported that "several dozen" Ukrainian drones had been intercepted over the region, with debris falling on the port of Vysotsk.
Russian forces launched their own attacks on Ukraine's Poltava region on Saturday morning, targeting Naftogaz Group gas production facilities, according to Sergii Koretskyi, the company's CEO.
"A fire broke out at the site and operations at the facility have been suspended," Koretskyi wrote on Facebook. "It is not yet possible to assess the extent of the damage".
Russian strikes also hit the city of Sumy, where three people, including a child, were killed, according to Ukraine's Emergency Service.
Authorities said 27 people were injured, including seven children. Emergency crews rescued five people from damaged buildings.
In the Odesa region, a Russian strike injured two people and set ablaze a warehouse used to store food products, authorities said.
In the Kherson region, Russian attacks struck the grounds of a poultry farm, sparking a large fire in one of the facility's production buildings, officials said.
It comes after Moscow launched a massive drone and missile barrage at Kyiv earlier this week, killing at least 30 people and hitting more than 20 sites across the capital.
Kyiv's mayor described the strike as Moscow's "most massive attack" on the city.
Ukraine's air force said the attack included 570 air attack assets, including four Zircon missiles, 24 Iskander ballistic missiles, and 496 Shahed-type drones.
Kyiv has been repeatedly targeting Russia's energy industry in recent months as it looks to ramp up pressure on President Vladimir Putin and the Russian economy.
The attacks have sparked a fuel crisis across the country as well as in Russian-occupied areas, with limited petrol supply.
Ukraine denies claims of Kostyantynivka capture
Also on Saturday, Kyiv's army spokesman Andriy Kovalyov dismissed Russian claims the eastern stronghold of Kostyantynivka had been seized, saying the situation was "difficult" but that troops were defending the town.
Zelenskyy called the Russian claim a "lie", a day after Russia's President Vladimir Putin appeared in military uniform on television thanking his forces for seizing the town.
"Ukrainian defenders continue to hold their positions along the designated defensive lines. The situation remains difficult but is under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces," Kovalyov said.
He acknowledged that Russian troops have tried to seize the town and had infiltrated it in small groups.
"There have been instances of small infantry groups (1–3 personnel) infiltrating deep into the battle formations of Ukrainian forces. Counter-sabotage operations by the Defense Forces are ongoing in the town. Occupying forces are being detected and eliminated," Kovalyov added.
He said Russian carried out "11 assault attempts" on Friday but said they "failed to achieve any success".
"The enemy has resorted to the dissemination of blatant disinformation and fake claims by its highest-ranking officials," he said.
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