By Geoffrey Skelley JUN. 25, 2020, AT 1:45 PM
Filed under 2020 Election
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.
The Times/Siena is one of the most highly-rated pollsters in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings — one of six with an A+ mark — so these new surveys did adjust our averages a bit, most notably in Pennsylvania. There had been few high-quality polls conducted in the Keystone State, so our polling average did shift roughly 1.5 points in Biden’s favor because of the Times/Siena survey, which found Biden up by 10 points.
It wasn’t just the Times/Siena survey that found Biden up, either. We got two more polls of Pennsylvania today that showed Biden with double-digit leads. One from GOP pollster Hodas & Associates gave Biden a 12-point lead, and one from Redfield & Wilton Strategies put him up 10 points.
The new Times/Siena polls also bumped Biden’s margin up about a point in three other states: Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. As a result, Biden’s average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin now exceed his national advantage. North Carolina, on the other hand, remains somewhat to the right of the country, but Biden still has about a 3-point lead. This marks a big change for Wisconsin, too, as up until this point, it had been more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole despite Biden’s lead there.
Wisconsin is the latest battleground state to lean blue
Wisconsin is the latest battleground state to lean blue
FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 1 p.m. EDT on June 25, 2020
| STATE | BIDEN | TRUMP | MARGIN | LEAN RELATIVE TO NATION |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 54.5% | 36.6% | D+17.9 | D+8.3 |
| Maine | 53.7 | 38.6 | D+15.1 | D+5.6 |
| New Mexico | 54.4 | 40.4 | D+14.0 | D+4.5 |
| Virginia | 50.8 | 39.4 | D+11.4 | D+1.9 |
| Minnesota | 54.3 | 43.5 | D+10.8 | D+1.2 |
| Michigan | 50.4 | 39.7 | D+10.7 | D+1.2 |
| Wisconsin | 50.2 | 40.5 | D+9.6 | D+0.1 |
| National | 50.6 | 41.1 | D+9.5 | EVEN |
| Nevada | 48.5 | 39.7 | D+8.8 | R+0.7 |
| New Hampshire | 50.3 | 41.7 | D+8.6 | R+0.9 |
| Pennsylvania | 50.5 | 42.3 | D+8.1 | R+1.4 |
| Florida | 49.1 | 42.2 | D+6.8 | R+2.7 |
| Arizona | 47.5 | 42.7 | D+4.8 | R+4.7 |
| North Carolina | 47.3 | 44.1 | D+3.2 | R+6.3 |
| Ohio | 48.2 | 45.5 | D+2.7 | R+6.8 |
| Georgia | 47.1 | 45.7 | D+1.4 | R+8.1 |
| Iowa | 45.9 | 45.5 | D+0.4 | R+9.2 |
| Texas | 46.5 | 46.9 | R+0.4 | R+9.9 |
The other thing to note here is that Biden is above 50 percent in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This is significant because even though Hillary Clinton led in these states at points in 2016, she never crossed the 50 percent threshold. That speaks to just how durable Biden’s lead might be.
But perhaps what’s even more significant about this batch of recent polls is that Trump’s possible Electoral College advantage is slipping. Biden doesn’t lead by as much in most of the battleground states as he does nationally, but his leads are big enough — anywhere from 5 points in Arizona to 9 points in Nevada — that it won’t matter that many battleground states lean to the right of the country.
Take Biden’s leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those three Frost Belt states were each decided by less than 1 point in the 2016 election, yet Biden leads them all by at least 8 points. That gives him a firmer grip on the Electoral College. The race, of course, could narrow in the coming months, but as the Times/Siena surveys found, Biden also has a sizable edge in states such as Arizona and Florida, which means even if his position weakens in the Midwest — perhaps some white Republican-leaning voters come home to Trump — Biden’s strength in other parts of the country might be less affected and still give him a path to victory with 270 electoral votes.
And the fact that Biden now has multiple paths to the White House is the biggest problem facing Trump. He needs a notable shift in voter sentiment that makes the national environment less favorable for Biden. With four months to go, that’s quite possible, but at the moment, our polling averages suggest that he’s in a lot of trouble.
Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. @geoffreyvs
Trump is in a precarious position for re-election – but he still has a chance
The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit Trump hard – but the conditions are ripe for a repeat surprise victory, some experts say
Daniel Strauss THE GUARDIAN 25 Jun 2020
The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit Trump hard – but the conditions are ripe for a repeat surprise victory, some experts say
Daniel Strauss THE GUARDIAN 25 Jun 2020
Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on 21 June. Photograph: Mike Logsdon/RMV/REX/Shutterstock
If Donald Trump wins the 2020 election and returns to the White House it won’t be by a landslide. And if he’s going to win at all he will need the US economy to rebound, to see suburban voters swing back in his direction, and overwhelm voters with a sense of optimism about another term under Trump.
That’s the verdict of about a dozen Republican veteran political strategists and operatives spoken to by the Guardian. Those priorities underscore the precarious situation the US president finds himself in. Most national and statewide polls show the former vice-president Joe Biden leading Trump, often by comfortable margins.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/21/us-presidential-election-mail-in-ballots-doubtA 2000 repeat in 2020? Concerns mount over ‘integrity’ of US election
The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit the president hard. He has struggled to offer consistent leadership on the coronavirus and been lambasted for mishandling a pandemic that has killed more than 120,000 Americans. The resulting economic crisis has seen more than 40 million people make unemployment claims. He’s also received severe criticism in responding to protests over the death of George Floyd, an African American man who died in police custody, and suffered the usual political scandals, such as a roasting by former top adviser John Bolton.
None of that, though, means Trump has no chance of re-election, these strategists said.
Contrary to the polls and the tumbling economic indicators, some Republicans across the country have shown a strong sense of optimism that the conditions are ripe for a repeat of Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.
But that’s only if a few important fundamentals change. The economy is the top priority followed by whether Trump can win over key voting constituencies beyond his core base. He also has to convince the electorate that a second term will less chaotic than the first.
“He has to remind people that what he said he would do he’s done. Clearly the things out of his control are the only things that are hampering him,” said Republican pollster Rex Elsass. “So he needs to remind people that when things are normal – and they will be! They won’t be chaotic forever – we have an opportunity to continue to restore the economy and strengthen America’s position internationally. The optimism that had been in America can be restored and will be restored.”
To an extent, the Trump campaign has already begun to pivot in its approach. Trump’s campaign has tweaked a key pillar of its message, now promising a “great American comeback” after the catastrophic financial downturn coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.
The economy is a longtime silver bullet for American political campaigns. James Carville, the strategist for Bill Clinton, propagated the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” and for the operatives who see a hidden path for a Trump victory, it’s through the economy.
I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the crazinessChris Wilson
“If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson.
But Trump can’t ignore the specter of Joe Biden, his Democratic rival.
Republicans regularly mock the former vice-president and de facto Democratic nominee for essentially campaigning from his basement, but he still polls ahead of Trump in head-to-head matchups. What’s more, Trump is viewed more unfavorably than Biden. A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found a majority of those surveyed view Trump unfavorably compared to a plurality who view Biden unfavorably. Both candidates are underwater in favorability.
So to win, Trump will have to successfully frame Biden as an untenable choice to most voters.
“It’s hard to imagine Donald Trump winning a referendum on his presidency unless the world changes dramatically between now and November,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “So that means his best hope of re-election is to make it a choice where Joe Biden becomes defined as an unacceptable alternative. That’s going to be substantially more challenging than it was in 2016 because Joe Biden doesn’t generate the same degree of animosity as Hillary Clinton did.
Ayres though said that unlike in past presidential cycles, the 2020 election is not shaping up to where a small and select set of states is the only pathway for either candidate. Even though Biden is leading in key midwestern states such as Wisconsin and Michigan there are other pathways to victory.
“There are many other states that are well beyond the big three of the upper midwest that appear at this point to be in play. I mean you’re looking at Arizona, Georgia seems close, Texas seems close, Iowa and Ohio seem like tossups right now that Trump won comfortably,” Ayres continued. “Biden seems to have a pretty significant lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania is his home state. Wisconsin seems to be the closest of the big three up in the rust belt. There are a lot different scenarios where Biden could get to 270 as well as Trump getting to 270 because there are so many more states in play than the half dozen that we usually focus on.”
Top Democratic officials hope that a groundswell of support among minority voters will carry Biden to victory, a view shared by the Republican strategist Stuart Stevens. Stevens argued that the deciding factor for 2020 would be turnout of African Americans and white voters, not any specific state.
“If non-white turnout goes back to what it was in 12, 08, even 04, Trump should lose,” Stevens, who has joined the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said. “If it doesn’t he has a shot.”
If Donald Trump wins the 2020 election and returns to the White House it won’t be by a landslide. And if he’s going to win at all he will need the US economy to rebound, to see suburban voters swing back in his direction, and overwhelm voters with a sense of optimism about another term under Trump.
That’s the verdict of about a dozen Republican veteran political strategists and operatives spoken to by the Guardian. Those priorities underscore the precarious situation the US president finds himself in. Most national and statewide polls show the former vice-president Joe Biden leading Trump, often by comfortable margins.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/21/us-presidential-election-mail-in-ballots-doubtA 2000 repeat in 2020? Concerns mount over ‘integrity’ of US election
The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit the president hard. He has struggled to offer consistent leadership on the coronavirus and been lambasted for mishandling a pandemic that has killed more than 120,000 Americans. The resulting economic crisis has seen more than 40 million people make unemployment claims. He’s also received severe criticism in responding to protests over the death of George Floyd, an African American man who died in police custody, and suffered the usual political scandals, such as a roasting by former top adviser John Bolton.
None of that, though, means Trump has no chance of re-election, these strategists said.
Contrary to the polls and the tumbling economic indicators, some Republicans across the country have shown a strong sense of optimism that the conditions are ripe for a repeat of Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.
But that’s only if a few important fundamentals change. The economy is the top priority followed by whether Trump can win over key voting constituencies beyond his core base. He also has to convince the electorate that a second term will less chaotic than the first.
“He has to remind people that what he said he would do he’s done. Clearly the things out of his control are the only things that are hampering him,” said Republican pollster Rex Elsass. “So he needs to remind people that when things are normal – and they will be! They won’t be chaotic forever – we have an opportunity to continue to restore the economy and strengthen America’s position internationally. The optimism that had been in America can be restored and will be restored.”
To an extent, the Trump campaign has already begun to pivot in its approach. Trump’s campaign has tweaked a key pillar of its message, now promising a “great American comeback” after the catastrophic financial downturn coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.
The economy is a longtime silver bullet for American political campaigns. James Carville, the strategist for Bill Clinton, propagated the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” and for the operatives who see a hidden path for a Trump victory, it’s through the economy.
I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the crazinessChris Wilson
“If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson.
But Trump can’t ignore the specter of Joe Biden, his Democratic rival.
Republicans regularly mock the former vice-president and de facto Democratic nominee for essentially campaigning from his basement, but he still polls ahead of Trump in head-to-head matchups. What’s more, Trump is viewed more unfavorably than Biden. A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found a majority of those surveyed view Trump unfavorably compared to a plurality who view Biden unfavorably. Both candidates are underwater in favorability.
So to win, Trump will have to successfully frame Biden as an untenable choice to most voters.
“It’s hard to imagine Donald Trump winning a referendum on his presidency unless the world changes dramatically between now and November,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “So that means his best hope of re-election is to make it a choice where Joe Biden becomes defined as an unacceptable alternative. That’s going to be substantially more challenging than it was in 2016 because Joe Biden doesn’t generate the same degree of animosity as Hillary Clinton did.
Ayres though said that unlike in past presidential cycles, the 2020 election is not shaping up to where a small and select set of states is the only pathway for either candidate. Even though Biden is leading in key midwestern states such as Wisconsin and Michigan there are other pathways to victory.
“There are many other states that are well beyond the big three of the upper midwest that appear at this point to be in play. I mean you’re looking at Arizona, Georgia seems close, Texas seems close, Iowa and Ohio seem like tossups right now that Trump won comfortably,” Ayres continued. “Biden seems to have a pretty significant lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania is his home state. Wisconsin seems to be the closest of the big three up in the rust belt. There are a lot different scenarios where Biden could get to 270 as well as Trump getting to 270 because there are so many more states in play than the half dozen that we usually focus on.”
Top Democratic officials hope that a groundswell of support among minority voters will carry Biden to victory, a view shared by the Republican strategist Stuart Stevens. Stevens argued that the deciding factor for 2020 would be turnout of African Americans and white voters, not any specific state.
“If non-white turnout goes back to what it was in 12, 08, even 04, Trump should lose,” Stevens, who has joined the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said. “If it doesn’t he has a shot.”
