Demonstration for Belgian held in Iran calls for his release

Protesters wear clothes reading 'Free Olivier’, referencing a Belgian aid worker reportedly being held in Tehran's notorious Evin prison. (AFP)

AFP
December 25, 2022
Iran has imposed a 28-year jail term on Vandecasteele
41-year-old been held in “inhumane” conditions, Belgium’s government says

BRUSSELS: Supporters of a Belgian aid worker being held in Iran staged a Christmas Day protest in Brussels to demand his immediate release, with a spokesman questioning why a prisoner swap treaty was stalled.

Around 50 people took part in the demonstration under constant rain in the center of the Belgian capital, brandishing pictures of the aid worker, Olivier Vandecasteele.

A spokesman for the campaign to free Vandecasteele, Olivier Van Steirtegem, said the gathering took place because “it’s the first year that Olivier is marking Christmas as a hostage in Iran.”

He said the situation was “unthinkable for his family,” who did not even know where Vandecasteele was being detained.

Vandecasteele, 41, was seized in February and has since been held in conditions that Belgium’s government has described as “inhumane.”

Last week, Iran imposed a 28-year jail term on him, stirring an already bitter debate over a stymied prisoner exchange treaty.

The Belgian government subsequently urged all Belgians in Iran, including dual nationals, to leave the country over the risk that they could be arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned.

Belgium insists Vandecasteele is innocent and was being held as a hostage as Tehran attempts to force Brussels to release an Iranian agent convicted of terrorism.

Under a treaty Belgium and Iran signed earlier this year, Vandecasteele would have been eligible to be swapped for the Iranian Assadollah Assadi.

Assadi, an Iranian diplomat who was stationed in Austria, was arrested in 2018 after German, French and Belgian law enforcement foiled a plot to set off a bomb at a rally outside Paris by an Iranian exiled opposition group.

After three years in detention, he was sentenced last year in Belgium to 20 years in prison for terrorism.
But in early December, Belgium’s constitutional court suspended the implementation of the prisoner swap treaty pending a final ruling on its legality within the next three months.

Van Steirtegem said the Belgian government believed the stalled treaty was “the only path” to getting Vandecasteele freed.

“The question is whether we can accept leaving a Belgian man to potentially die in Iranian jail. All that because we don’t want to transfer a prisoner from here who has already served five years in prison.”

Tunisia rights group slams 'inhumane' move to deport migrants REFUGEES

Issued on: 25/12/2022 -

A group of mirants has lived at a youth centre north of Tunis after being evacuated from the Choucha refugee camp © FETHI BELAID / AFP

Tunis (AFP) – A Tunisian rights group condemned Sunday a "repressive and inhumane" government decision to deport a group of migrants who had been evacuated from a defunct refugee camp.

The 25 men from Egypt, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan had sought asylum in Tunisia after fleeing violence in neighbouring Libya in 2011, but their requests were denied, said Romdhane Ben Amor of the Tunisian Forum for Social and Economic Rights (FTDES).

He said their repatriation would "put their lives at risk".

The Tunisian cabinet approved on Friday the expulsion "as soon as possible of a group of migrants residing illegally in Tunisia", the government said in a statement.

Since 2017, the migrants have been living in a youth centre in Marsa, a suburb of the capital Tunis, "hindering its activities" by "categorically refusing to leave", it added.

The group, aged 30 to 32, moved to the youth centre after being evacuated from the Choucha refugee camp in southern Tunisia, FTDES said in statement Sunday, expressing its "indignation at the repressive and inhumane decision by the government".

The FTDES "warns against any attempts to forcefully impose a solution on a vulnerable group that has suffered for more than 10 years", it said.

It urged civil society groups to mobilise against "discriminatory policies" that affect undocumented migrants, who have also been "neglected by United Nations agencies and the European Union".

The UN refugee agency UNHCR opened the Choucha camp in early 2011 to shelter those fleeing conflict amid the fall of Libya's former dictator Moamer Kadhafi.

At its peak, Choucha hosted around 18,000 refugees.

But in 2013, UNHCR decided the close the camp while hundreds of its remaining residents were awaiting resettlement in third countries.

Some have left Tunisia, while others were offered accommodations in cities in the North African nation.

Several dozen migrants refused to leave Choucha, demanding their asylum requests be granted. They were finally removed in 2017.

© 2022 AFP

Thousands Rally In
 Karabakh Against
 Azerbaijani Blockade

Protesters rally in a central square of Stepanakert on December 25.

Thousands of people rallied in Stepanakert on December 25 to demand that Azerbaijan unblock the sole road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

Karabakh’s political leaders, who organized the rally, struck a defiant note as they addressed the crowd that gathered in the city’s central square on the 14th day of the road blockade that has led to serious shortages of food, medicines, and other basic goods in the Armenian-populated region.

They appealed to the international community for urgent intervention in the face of what they see as Azerbaijani efforts to drive Karabakh Armenians out of their homeland.

Ruben Vardanian, Karabakh’s de facto premier, said the local population has been left with three options.

“First, we submit and sooner or later integrate into Azerbaijan,” Vardanian said in a speech. “Second, we get out of here. Third, we fight.”

“I made my decision on September 2,” he said, referring to the date of his relocation from Armenia to Karabakh. “I’m here, I’m fighting, and I’m not going to leave or obey Azerbaijan’s conditions.”

Photo Gallery:

Inside Stepanakert As Azerbaijani Blockade Continues

The Karabakh protest came amid what appears to be growing international pressure exerted on Azerbaijan.

French President Emmanuel Macron urged Baku to “allow free movement along the Lachin Corridor” when he phoned his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, on December 23. According to the French readout of the call, Aliyev expressed his “intention” to do so.

However, Aliyev’s press office quoted him as defending the Azerbaijanis who closed the corridor on December 12 ostensibly on environmental grounds. It said he told Macron that they are right to protest against “illegal” mining activities in Karabakh.

The road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia was blocked by a group of Azerbaijani protesters demanding that Baku be allowed to inspect Karabakh ore mines, calling attention to what Azerbaijan says is illegal mining in Nagorno-Karabakh and the use of the road to transport the minerals to Armenia.

The authorities in Yerevan and Stepanakert have condemned the blockade as a violation of the 2020 cease-fire agreement that placed the Lachin Corridor under the control of Russian peacekeepers.

Aliyev also spoke on December 23 by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin’s readout of the call made no mention of the blockade.

Speaking in Baku on December 24, Aliyev said he would not bow to the international pressure. “Nobody can influence us,” he said.

Meanwhile, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, phoned Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov on December 24 for the second time in three days. Borrell later tweeted that they discussed “the need for freedom of movement and humanitarian access through the Lachin Corridor.” He described the conversation as “constructive.”

Thousands rally in Nagorno-Karabakh to
protest blockade of Armenia land link

Issued on: 25/12/2022 - 

Protesters attend a rally in Stepanakert, the largest city in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, on December 25, 2022. © Davit Ghahramanyan, AFP

Thousands rallied on Sunday in Azerbaijan, in the Nagorno-Karabakh region's largest city Stepanakert, to protest the blockade of the only land link to Armenia, an AFP journalist saw.

Stepanakert's main Renaissance Square was flooded with protesters on Sunday, with a giant Armenian flag hoisted above the crowd.

Armenia and Azerbaijan, who went to war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in autumn 2020, have recently argued over the Lachin corridor.

For nearly two weeks Azerbaijani activists have blocked the corridor, the only land link to Armenia, to protest what they claim is illegal mining.

Yerevan has accused Baku of staging demonstrations and creating a humanitarian crisis in the mountainous enclave.

Armenia's parliament has said Karabakh was suffering from shortages of food, medicine and fuel following the closure of the corridor.

Azerbaijan insists there is no blockade and that civilian cars can move freely to and out of Karabakh.

"This is the only road that connects Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) with the rest of the world. Not only Armenia, we reach the rest of the world through Armenia," 70-year-old Stepanakert resident Donara Gabrielyan told AFP on Saturday.

Armenia also said Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region were failing to prevent the blockade.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who called for de-escalation on Friday, said the Russian peacekeeping contingent was "clearly fulfilling its tasks" while working in "very difficult conditions".

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a six-week war in autumn 2020.

The fighting claimed more than 6,500 lives and ended with a Russian-brokered truce that saw Yerevan cede territories it had controlled for decades.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan. The ensuing conflict claimed around 30,000 lives.

Thousands rally in Nagorno-Karabakh to 

protest land blockade

Issued on: 25/12/2022 - 

Stepanakert's main Renaissance Square was flooded with protesters 

© Davit GHAHRAMANYAN / AFP

Stepanakert (Azerbaijan) (AFP) – Thousands rallied on Sunday in Azerbaijan, in the Nagorno-Karabakh region's largest city Stepanakert, to protest the blockade of the only land link to Armenia, an AFP journalist saw.

On Sunday, under a bright sun, Stepanakert's main Renaissance Square was flooded with protesters, with a giant Armenian flag hoisted above the crowd.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh © / AFP

"On this holy Christmas day, we are standing here and call for action, the deliberate blockade of 120,000 people is a crime against humanity," Asatryan said, addressing the crowd on loudspeakers.

'Road of life'

The protests went smoothly, an AFP journalist said. Among the attendees was separatist leader Arayik Harutyunyan.

In the crowd, a small girl in a pink coat held a sign that read "Open the 'road of life'".

Others held banners calling for "self-determination" and bearing the slogan "we won't give up".

Armenia's parliament has said Karabakh was suffering from shortages of food, medicine and fuel following the closure of the corridor.

Azerbaijan insists there is no blockade and that civilian cars can move freely to and out of Karabakh.

Thousands rallied on Sunday in Azerbaijan © Davit GHAHRAMANYAN / AFP

"There is no basis for the claims that the protests on Lachin pose a threat of humanitarian crisis," Azerbaijan's foreign ministry said in a statement published Sunday.

But residents who spoke to AFP were worried.

"This is the only road that connects Artsakh with the rest of the world. Not only Armenia, we reach the rest of the world through Armenia," 70-year-old Stepanakert resident Donara Gabrielyan told AFP on Saturday.

International concern

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a six-week war in autumn 2020.

The fighting claimed more than 6,500 lives and ended with a Russian-brokered truce that saw Yerevan cede territories it had controlled for decades.

But Moscow is embroiled in a 10-month-long Ukraine offensive, and Armenia has said Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region were failing to prevent the blockade.

Armenia's Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Ilham Aliyev are expected at a gathering of the leaders of the post-Soviet sovereign states in Saint Petersburg next week.

But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state-run news agency Interfax Sunday that a tripartite meeting with the Russian president on the sidelines of the summit was "not envisaged".

With Moscow increasingly isolated on the world stage following its February offensive on Ukraine, the United States and the European Union attempted to mediate.

Talks in Brussels planned in December between Yerevan and Baku were cancelled after Azerbaijan accused France of backing Armenia in the decades-long conflict.

Nevertheless, French President Emmanuel Macron called his Azerbaijani counterpart to call for "allowing free movement along the Lachin corridor", according to an Elysee press statement.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh broke away from Azerbaijan. The ensuing conflict claimed around 30,000 lives.

© 2022 AFP

Thousands rally in Nagorno-Karabakh to protest blockade of Lachin corridor 

AFP Dec 25, 2022

Thousands rally in Stepanakert, the biggest city in - and capital of - the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, to protest the blockade of the only land link to Armenia. For almost two weeks, Azerbaijani activists have blocked the Lachin corridor in protest over what they claim is illegal mining in the area, but Yerevan has accused Baku of staging demonstrations and creating a humanitarian crisis in the mountainous enclave. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both ex-Soviet states, have fought brutal wars over the Karabakh region in recent decades.

Northern Alberta dinosaur museum hosts Ukrainian refugees for a holiday party

Story by Luke Ettinger • Yesterday

AChristmas celebration with a Cretaceous twist saw dozens of Ukrainian refugees in northwestern Alberta gather at a dinosaur museum to share a meal, a movie and some holiday magic.

"We need to communicate. We need to speak a lot. We need to be together here," said event organizer Roman Masiuk.

Masiuk began working at the Philip J. Currie Dinosaur Museum, about 20 kilometres west of Grande Prairie, Alta., after arriving in Canada on Sept. 23.

Masiuk will be spending this Christmas without his family. They are planning to come to Canada in the spring.

That's why the museum technician organized the Dec. 22 gathering to bring wanted to bring refugees in the area together to enjoy food, a movie and a translated museum tour.

"It's a very important day for me," Masiuk said.


Roman Masiuk will spend this Christmas without family, but he celebrated the season with other Ukrainian refugees on Dec. 22.© Luke Ettinger/CBC

Olena Kovalinska's family, who were among the dozens of refugees who attended the event, said her family will celebrate Ukrainian Christmas on Jan. 7 but they'll also celebrate on Dec. 25.

"We saw your Christmas just in the movies. So for us, everything is new," Kovalinska said.

"And it's the same like magic, " said her husband Iaroslav Kovalinskiy.

The family lived in central Ukraine before fleeing to Poland from the wartorn country last spring. In August, the couple arrived in Grande Prairie with their two children and dog.

"We are so thankful for this event. It's so interesting for us," Kovalinska said.

Ukrainian community

While many of the attendees were newcomers, others who have been in Canada longer were happy to join in on the festivities.

The Rudyks relocated from Kyiv to Alberta in 2011 to be closer to family members who live in the province.

When refugees began arriving this year, Olena Rudyk helped organize events in Grande Prairie to bring newcomers and the existing Ukrainian community together.

"We're trying to help the way we can here," Rudyk said.


Olena Kovalinska and her husband Iaroslav Kovalinskiy, who both live in Grande Prairie, Alta., will be spending their first Christmas outside of Ukraine.© Luke Ettinger/CBC

Kovalinska said some of her relatives are living through the war this holiday season.

Finding refuge in Canada has helped her feel good about her children's future.

"We don't have a good reason for this move," Kovalinska said. "But for us living in Canada, it's a beautiful new life."

Grande Prairie is 450 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.

News About Christmas in Ukraine Echoes Alongside Din of War - Bartholomew

Patriarch Bartholemew Greets Ukrainian Christians on Christmas Day Whose Date is Still Disputed in Ukraine

by UkrInform | 25 Dec, 06:19 PM

Patriarch Bartholemew. Photo: AFP.

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew in a Christmas greeting to Ukrainians said that Christmas in Ukraine now echoes alongside the din of war and the clash of weapons.

"Unfortunately, this year the message of the good news about Christmas echoes alongside the din of war and the clash of weapons in your Fatherland, which is experiencing the horrible consequences of a provocative and unjust invasion. This war, provoked by the aggression of the Russian Federation last February, is the worst European geopolitical and humanitarian crisis since at the end of the Second World War, with a negative impact on the environment and society worldwide. For us Christians, all wars are the murder of our brothers," Bartholomew said.

The Ecumenical Patriarch noted that the credibility of religions today depends on their attitude towards protecting human freedom and dignity and their contribution to peace.

"The Mother Church is especially thinking of you all who are celebrating the Nativity of Christ in this cold season, particularly this year in Ukraine, without electricity, without heating, and is unceasingly praying for the immediate restoration of peace and justice, for the revival of Ukraine," Bartholomew said.

He added that only solidarity with the Ukrainian people can overcome evil and darkness. "We hope, when time permits, to revisit your unsubdued Homeland, finding then all the Orthodox Christians in Ukraine united in one flourishing Church! We wish you all many blessed years!" the Patriarch said.

Defying Russia, some Ukrainians embrace Christmas in December

Issued on: 25/12/2022 

Some Ukrainian churches decided to observe Christmas on December 25 and not January 7, as is customary in Orthodox Christianity © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

Kyiv (Ukraine) (AFP) – Church bells and chanting rang throughout Ukraine's capital as Orthodox Christians attended Christmas services on Sunday, a defiant break from Russian religious leaders who will mark the holiday in two weeks.

The decision by some Ukrainian churches to observe Christmas on December 25 and not January 7, as is customary in Orthodox Christianity, highlights the rift between church officials in Kyiv and Moscow that has deepened with the ongoing war.

Worshipper Olga Stanko told AFP on Sunday she supported any move that would distance Ukraine from Russia -- and said she believed shifting the Christmas date was overdue.

"The war has brought us so much grief," the 72-year-old said, tearing up as she mentioned her son fighting near Bakhmut, the hottest point on the front line in eastern Ukraine.

"We forgot that they were our enemies, we were so gullible. And now a war has come to us, a calamity."


An Interfax-Ukraine poll showed that, like her, nearly half of Ukrainians are in favour of moving the holy day, up from 26 percent in 2021 -- though 31 percent were still against it.

An Interfax-Ukraine poll showed nearly half of Ukrainians are in favour of moving the holy day © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

Ukraine had been under Moscow's spiritual leadership since at least the 17th century, but part of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church broke with Moscow in 2019 over Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in the east.

In May of this year, three months into the invasion, the Russia-backed branch of Ukraine's Orthodox Church also said it had severed ties with Moscow.
'Great light' in darkness

Packed into a church near St Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery in central Kyiv, wearing coats to guard against the winter chill, worshippers lit candles and lined up to give confession on Sunday morning as an all-male choir led the chanting.

In his sermon, Archpriest Mykhailo Omelyan appeared to allude to widespread power and heating cuts caused by Russian attacks that have affected millions in and beyond the city.

"The people who sat in darkness saw a great light, and to those who are in the land and shadow of death, the light has shone on them," he said, adding a harsh word for the Russians.

"Not everyone accepts the light that has shone... There are those people who loved the darkness more than the light, because their deeds were evil."

Other reminders of the war included burnt-out Russian tanks on display in the square outside the church, and an air raid siren that sounded about 25 minutes into the service.

On social media, some users added a militant twist to traditional Christmas imagery, for example by replacing the Three Wise Men -- who are said to have visited Jesus after his birth -- with armed soldiers.

Packed into a church near St Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery in central Kyiv, worshippers lit candles and lined up to give confession © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

Olena Zakharova-Gorianska said she was happy to be celebrating Christmas on December 25 for the first time -- describing it as an obvious choice after surviving Russian occupation in the town of Gostomel, north of Kyiv.

"I do not want to have anything to do with the occupiers, with the enemy," she said.

'Transitional period'

Yet the same church will also hold a Christmas service on January 7 to accommodate those who aren't ready to change, said Father Andriy.

"In my opinion, this is a transitional period... There are some things that we cannot change radically in one moment," he said, predicting it would take several years before celebrations on December 25 fully catch on.

He added: "In fact, we must remember that we celebrate not the date, but the event -- the birth of the Saviour. We do not know the exact date, so there is no need to emphasise it."

Omelyan also acknowledged that strident calls to abandon the January 7 Christmas celebrations completely did not represent the will of all, or even most, of Ukraine's Orthodox faithful.

In May, three months into the invasion, the Russia-backed branch of Ukraine's Orthodox Church said it had severed ties with Moscow © Genya SAVILOV / AFP

An official breakdown was not available, but he said only a "minority" of churches were holding Christmas services on Sunday.

"We see that a really large part of society still wants to celebrate on January 7," he told AFP.

"Yes, there are a lot of Facebook believers who are only 25 and categorical. But often people write, and rarely come to church."

© 2022 AFP

'Changed radically': How women fight in Ukrainian city

Joris FIORITI
Sat, December 24, 2022 


The very day Russia launched its attack on her country, Svitlana Taranova enlisted in the Ukrainian army in the southern city of Mykolaiv, her birthplace.

"At 11 am on February 24 my contract with the territorial defence was signed," said the former construction firm manager who is in her 50s.

"It was the only possible decision, not a sacrifice," she said.

Mykolaiv came under threat rapidly after Kherson, 70 kilometres (43 miles) to the east, was taken by Russian forces.

President Vladimir Putin's army needed to take Mykolaiv if it was going to conquer the Black Sea transport hub of Odessa, its main target and a two-hour drive to the west.

So the Russians began to pound Mykolaiv with artillery, massively and methodically.

Taranova, by now in the infantry, often found herself in close combat with Russian troops.

"In the beginning, I was terrified of the cluster bombs, my heart missed a beat every time one went off," she said.

But then the fear gave way to grim determination. "I no longer feel I need to hide. All I want is revenge," she said.

While an AFP team was in Mykolaiv in September and October, the city was bombarded almost every night.

- 'We feed the soldiers' -

As Taranova was battling Russians in combat, other women contributed to the war effort in different ways, an AFP team found.

"We're fighting here, too," said Svitlana Nitchouk, 41, a bakery employee. "We feed the soldiers."

When AFP met with her, she was watching an emergency unit clearing the rubble of an old apartment block in the city centre. The bakery where she works, on the ground floor, was badly damaged.

The remains of a nearby regional authority building miraculously holds up after a Russian missile destroyed seven floors.

Julia, a resident living nearby, said her apartment had already been hit three times.

The IT worker in her thirties took her daughter to the relative safety of western Ukraine, but regularly returns to Mykolaiv -- mostly to distribute cars or military equipment to the fighters, funded by online appeals she has launched.

In another neighbourhood Julia Kirkina, a musicologist, sings and plays piano in a restaurant every Friday.

"Music is one of the best cures for the spirit," she said. "My vocal therapy helps people stay calm and be optimistic."


Mykolaiv remained within range of Russian artillery fire for 262 days, and escaped bombing for barely 50, according to local authorities.

Then, on November 13, Kherson was recaptured by Ukrainian troops and Mykolaiv was no longer part of the war's frontline.

By then more than 150 of the city's residents had been killed and 700 injured.

Between 300,000 and 500,000 people had fled. Four-fifths of the women have left, according to the regional administration, making Mykolaiv a city populated almost entirely by men.

Millions of Ukrainian women have left their homes since the start of the war, some fleeing what the United Nations in a recent report called "alarming increases in gender-based violence".
- 'No time to panic' -

Despite their increased vulnerability, many women in Mykolaiv refuse to see themselves as victims, said psychoanalyst Irina Viktorovna.

"They have no time to panic or lose themselves," she said, although she acknowledged there had been cases of breakdowns.

The military threat has been repelled for now, but life remains precarious, residents told AFP by telephone.


Like elsewhere in Ukraine, cuts to supplies of electricity, heating and water are commonplace since Russia targeted civilian energy infrastructure.

Aleksandra Savitska, who used to work as a hairdresser, has not returned to her old job. Instead, she and her husband now run an NGO which distributes food and supplies to soldiers and civilians.

A video on her Instagram account shows the 25-year-old in Kherson, wearing a helmet and flak jacket, after handing out food and hygiene products.

"My life has changed radically," she told AFP by telephone. "I used to make women look beautiful. Now I'm a volunteer. That's my job."

jf/jh/lcm/ach

Putin's speeches invoke Russia's fight against fascism in WWII to justify the war in Ukraine — and use propaganda strategies from Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, historian says


Kelsey Vlamis
Sat, December 24, 2022 

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a cabinet meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022.

Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo/Associated Press

Stephen Norris is a professor of Russian history at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.


Norris studies Russian history, nationalism, media, and propaganda.


Norris told Insider Putin's speeches have gotten more existential and apocalyptic.

The following is a Q&A with Stephen Norris, a professor of Russian history at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. It has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

What is your perception of how Putin's speeches have changed over time, and what specifically about them is most concerning to you?

The evolution is probably most apparent in the last year or so. The major Putin state speech of the year is the Victory Day speech every year on May 9. Those speeches tend to be quite repetitive. Every year he says something about the sacrifice that the Soviet Union made, but he also transitions that into saying, "We have inherited that sacrifice. It's a sacred victory where we, Russia/the Soviet Union, saved the world from the brown plague of fascism and liberated Europe." And then he usually, especially over the last 10 years, says something about how "We have inherited this willingness to defend our motherland."

This year's Victory Day speech was one where he blended these two ideas together. Now it's, "We've done that, but now we're also actively doing it again." And that's why this year's Victory Day speech was quite scary.

It's almost like this DNA of patriotism that sort of seeded the ground for his speeches over the last year, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. He laid out this culture of patriotism and this historic mission that Russia has inherited from victory over Nazi Germany, and now he's activated in that the necessity of having to fight Ukraine because what he keeps saying is that "We're not really fighting an offensive war. We're fighting a defensive war where we now have to once again liberate Europe from the brown plague of fascism."

What similarities do you see between the messaging put forth by Putin and Russia today compared to Soviet Union propaganda?

The messaging about Victory Day and it's significance is largely a Putin-era phenomenon — laying claim to this victory over Nazi Germany is the one achievement from the 20th century that the Putin state has really latched onto, and then used to kind of construct this larger patriotic culture around the willingness of Russians across centuries to sacrifice themselves for the motherland.

Having a simple repetitive message is key to any propaganda, and one that rests at least in some part on truth. So it is of course true that the Soviet Union won WWII and that the sacrifices of the Soviet Union in World War II are difficult for us in America to understand. But then the other side of propaganda that Putin also is quite adept at is ignoring all the inconvenient facts. In that sense, the Victory Day propaganda is a Soviet era creation that's been revived under Putin.

In the 19th century and even in the 20th century, in the imperial propaganda and then Soviet propaganda, Russia "never attacked" anyone, or the Soviet Union never attacked anyone — it was always defense. Even when it wasn't. Clearly Russia has attacked Ukraine, but Putin is pitching it as a necessary defense of our civilization and Russians living across our borders. In the 20th century, it was more the sense of they need to protect socialist regimes from the evils of the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during the Victory Day military parade at Red Square on May 9, 2018 in Moscow, Russia.

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Did Putin use the Victory Day speeches to repeat that messaging so the Russian people would be primed to accept his narrative of the Ukraine invasion?

I don't think that Putin had in mind 10 years ago that he was going to invade Ukraine. What happened in the wake of Putin returning to the presidency and these massive protests that broke out in 2011 and 2012 across Russia, especially in Moscow, was a fear from Putin's point of view of a color revolution, or some sort of popular revolt that would topple his system. And so what the Putin system did, especially through the Ministry of Culture, was to particularly stress patriotic narratives — in schooling, movies, television shows, news programs, and things like that.

You compared the speech Putin gave announcing the annexation of four Ukrainian territories to the Nazi propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels. Can you elaborate on that?

One of the more worrisome trends in Putin speeches, especially in the last six or seven months, has been how amorphous, almost existential they've been. The Ukrainian war has been framed in existential terms — it's a war to save Russian civilization. In the speech when he signed the treaties that annexed the four territories, he said Western culture is nothing less than satanism and this is the new threat against Russia. It was kind of scary and quite apocalyptic in the way his speeches had ever been. And in that speech, Putin actually referenced Goebbels. He said what the West has done is create a culture of lies about Russia that's reminiscent of Goebbels.

In a speech in May of 1943, Goebbels said weirdly similar things. This was after Nazi Germany had lost at Stalingrad after the Soviet Union was turning the tide of the war. Goebbels gave a speech that turned the seeming defeat into victory and into a more existential question, saying the allies are trying to eliminate German culture, German history, the German people.

As a historian, I don't want to go too far with comparisons, because of course Goebbels' speech was also filled with a lot about who was supporting the West and the need to answer "the Jewish question." That's not a big part of Putin speeches, but I think the analogy here is what does an authoritarian or authoritarian system or even a dictatorship do when things aren't going well in a war? And how do they cast the meanings of this war at that moment? And what Goebbels did in 1943 at that moment was to really bring these sort of apocalyptic, existential questions to the forefront. And that's in a sense what Putin's saying.

Why that's worrisome is because there's no obvious out. Where's the out when you cast the war in terms of your very way of life being at stake?

Surrounded by WWII veterans Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the military parade marking 74 years since the victory in WWII in Red Square in Moscow, Russia, Thursday, May 9, 2019.Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo/Associated Press

How much are film and TV in Russia part of the state's propaganda?

Like most European countries, Russia has a Ministry of Culture that oversees film production. In the wake of the protests in 2011 and 2012, Putin appointed a new cultural minister named Vladimir Medinsky, and every year he put out a list of the 10 things the state wanted in films: things like patriotic stories from the past and achievements in Soviet and Russian science. That meant that monies were dolled out only if you met one of those criteria.

Which meant that popular films, which are very slick, well-produced — they look like Hollywood films — increasingly took on patriotic messages that dovetail with the state's ideals. Tons and tons of war movies about WWII. It's really hard to overstate how many war movies have come out in Russia in the last 10 years. I think almost to the tune of, on average, about one per month.

Some of them are really good, some are a little more nuanced, but you can imagine if this is your basic consumption, you are on some level always getting messages about the significance of WWII, the patriotism of our forefathers in it, that we saved the world from fascism — those are the messages that the war speeches have kind of hijacked.

There's also examples over the last 10 years where if there are Ukrainians in the film, they usually fall in one of two guises. A Ukrainian who's in the Red Army, along with his fellow Soviet soldiers, who speaks Russian, is always good. But if the Ukrainian speaks Ukrainian in a Russian film, almost inevitably, he's a Nazi collaborator.

The media landscape in Russia is much more varied, even if it's still primarily state-run. It's not like the Soviet era where there's two channels, two radio stations, a handful of papers all controlled by the state. Now it's seemingly more diverse, so it doesn't necessarily feel to the public like it's centralized or condensed. In some ways, it's more sophisticated even than Soviet propaganda because of that.

A lot of American movies portray Russian characters as evil. How do those play into Russia's narratives about the West?

That's a frequent talking point in Russia, that Russians tend to be the villains now. And that really rankles with Russians, understandably so. American movies are widely released in Russia and they're frequently the most popular movies in Russia, just like they are in America. New American movies were still coming out in Russia all the way up until February this year, and every time an American movie came out with a Russian bad guy, there would be lots of articles in the Russian press.

Putin talks about Russophobia as a form of racism. And then someone can say, "Well, all these Hollywood movies do have all these bad Russians, therefore they really don't like us. So when the president says the West wants us to collapse and cease to exist as a nation, maybe that's true. Maybe not. I don't know." And that's the point.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a 'geopolitical earthquake' that defined 2022 and has transformed the world for years to come

John Haltiwanger
Sat, December 24, 2022 

A Ukrainian soldier fires towards Russian positions outside Bakhmut, Ukraine, on November 8, 2022.Bulent Kilic/AFP via Getty Images

The war in Ukraine was the story that defined 2022. It will continue to shape the world in 2023.

Russia's invasion "represented a geopolitical earthquake," a former US ambassador to NATO said.

"It appears that the war will continue for some time, well into 2023," a former US ambassador to Ukraine said.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in late February, it sent shockwaves across the world. The White House in early 2022 warned that an invasion could be imminent, but there was still an overwhelming sense of disbelief when the Russian attack started. A nuclear power was vying to conquer its next-door neighbor. An unthinkable, nightmare scenario was now a reality — the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II had begun.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the story that defined 2022, with cataclysmic consequences that have seeped into the daily lives of people across the globe — but none more so than the Ukrainian people.

The war, which is still raging on, will continue to shape the world in the year to come and likely long after.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine represented a geopolitical earthquake, scrambling the entire chessboard of global politics," Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO, told Insider.

Ukrainian troops fire an M777 howitzer in the Kharkiv Region on July 28, 2022.Vyacheslav Madiyevskyy/Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images

In the months leading up to Russia's invasion, as it gathered a massive force on Ukraine's borders, there were serious doubts about the ability of the US to continue to shape global events and bring allies together. The US was left humiliated on the global stage in 2021 amid its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, which saw thousands of Afghan allies left behind as the Taliban regained control after twenty years of war.

The disastrous pullout came less than a year after supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol in a fatal insurrection, undermining faith in the strength and health of America's democracy. Trump's tenure was typified by a seemingly never-ending cycle of self-induced crises. Meanwhile, far-right, hyper-nationalistic leaders with worldviews similar to Putin's were gaining a foothold in countries across the West. Throughout it all, Trump routinely attacked NATO while praising authoritarians like the Russian leader. By the end of 2021, the US looked like an unreliable partner and the transatlantic alliance seemed fractured.

For Putin, who has been obsessed with Ukraine for years, early 2022 probably seemed like an ideal moment to strike. Russia's military was considered to be among the most powerful in the world, surpassed only by the US. Kyiv was expected to fall within days if Russia invaded. And the West appeared too mired in its own problems to do anything about it. Not to mention, much of Europe was heavily reliant on Russia for energy — Moscow had leverage.

But Putin miscalculated. Ukraine put up a far stiffer resistance than anyone expected, ensuring that Russia failed in its early objectives — including preventing Russian forces from seizing Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian and political neophyte, rallied the country and emerged as a wartime leader who's been applauded across the globe. Zelenskyy's refusal to flee Kyiv, despite the immense dangers, fueled Ukraine's resolve.

The war in Ukraine rapidly drove the West together, with leaders like President Joe Biden portraying it as a fight between democracy and autocracy. Through careful diplomacy and coordination, the Biden administration helped build a coalition to provide Kyiv with vital support and isolate Russia both economically and politically. NATO banded together. Countries with longstanding policies of neutrality sent weapons to Ukraine. Finland and Sweden, which have historically been military non-aligned, moved to join NATO. The EU took steps toward ending its reliance on Russian energy.

Putin launched the invasion with the intention of weakening NATO, an alliance that Ukraine has long sought to join. Though Ukraine is not a member and appears unlikely to be admitted at any point in the near future, particularly as the war continues, Putin's goal of eroding NATO unity backfired. Instead of debilitating the alliance, NATO is now on the verge of expanding — including by adding a country (Finland) that shares an 810-mile border with Russia.

Meanwhile, the war left Russia with few friends on the global stage and catalyzed an awkward dynamic with Beijing, which has often sided with Moscow on geopolitical issues. The UN voted to condemn the invasion, and Russia was booted from the UN Human Rights Council. Putin skipped the G20 in Bali last month, and has madefew international trips since the war began — only visiting the short list of countries still friendly to Russia such as Belarus and Iran.

"Until February 24, Russia and China declared a partnership 'without limits' based on the idea that the West was divided, decadent, and in decline and that the East was rising in power and stature," Daalder said, adding, "The invasion changed all that. Far from seizing control of Ukraine in a matter of weeks, Russia's ambitions were thwarted by the combination of Ukrainian determination and Western support. Its military was exposed as weak and failing; its economy is gradually being cut off from the global system."

Putin in recent days offered a rare admission that the war in Ukraine is not going well, pointing to an "extremely difficult" situation in the occupied Ukrainian territories. In September, the Russian leader illegally annexed four Ukrainian territories despite the fact Russian forces did not fully control these regions. The Russian military has lost ground in these territories ever since, and retreated from Kherson — the first major city Russia captured after invading — last month. Russia's economy also fell into a recession in November.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the SCTO Summit in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 23, 2022.Contributor/Getty Images

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the head of the UK's armed forces, in mid-December said that Russia is "losing in Ukraine" and "will continue to fail." Russia is estimated to have suffered roughly 100,000 casualties in the war so far, a staggering figure in less than a year of fighting. Meanwhile, Western officials say the Russian military is rapidly running out of munitions, which will severely hinder its ability to continue offensive ground operations.

Between the grim situation on the ground in the war for Russian forces and Moscow's economic woes, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that 2022 has been a "dismal year of failure" for Putin — leaving Russia the poorest and most isolated it's been in decades.

"In contrast, America is truly back. The Biden administration proved adroit and highly effective in leading a Western coalition to oppose Russia and stand by Ukraine," Daalder said. "The West itself has been transformed, now having realized that the world is far from a peaceful place and hard, military and economic power, is as important as soft, civil power."

The war in Ukraine is far from over. And talks to end the fighting appear to be virtually impossible as things stand. As the conflict continues in 2023, its rippling effects — high energy prices and inflation — are poised to fester.

"The Kremlin, which launched the unprovoked assault on Ukraine in February, shows no sign of being prepared to negotiate seriously, even though however the war turns out, Russia will emerge diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms," Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, told Insider.

"Ukraine is the victim, and, if anything, its resolve to resist has hardened since February. Moreover, the Ukrainian military has had the momentum on the battlefield the past three months. So, it appears that the war will continue for some time, well into 2023 and perhaps longer."

Though the war has not gone well for Russia, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine will continue to pose numerous, difficult questions for the West and beyond in 2023.

There is increasing opposition among Republicans to the levels of aid provided to Ukraine by the US, which could prove to be a headache for the White House after the GOP takes control of the House in January. As the war drags on and the global economic fallout becomes more pronounced, there could be also be rising calls in Congress for talks to end the fighting — even if it involves Kyiv making concessions. Debates over these issues could add to an already historically divisive atmosphere in Washington.

On top of this, Putin's repeated nuclear threats have raised serious alarm. Some experts have warned that the nuclear dangers posed by the Ukraine war after are "far worse" than the Cuban missile crisis, which occurred 60 years ago this past October.

"The kinds of consequences that the war has generated for the broader global community are likely to continue to be felt in 2023," Pifer said.

Indeed, the global dimensions of the Ukraine war could make it an era-defining fight. "No other story so encapsulates the lasting transformation of the world than this one. It's effect will be with us for many years," Daalder said.