It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, March 03, 2025
Spitefulness linked to belief in conspiracy theories
Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? New research has highlighted an important factor, spite
Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? New research has highlighted an important factor, spite.
Conspiracy theories – alternative explanations for major events that reject well-evidenced explanations in favour of implausible, illogical, or fantastical secret plots – have surged in popularity, particularly in times of crisis.
New research by psychologists from the University of Staffordshire and the University of Birmingham, published in the Journal of Social Issues, identifies spite as a key factor that underlies conspiracy theory belief.
“Spiteful psychological motives tend to emerge when people feel at a competitive disadvantage, often when we feel uncertain, threatened or undervalued,” explained lead researcher Dr David Gordon from University of Staffordshire.
“Spite is the desire to ‘level the playing field’ by trying to knock someone else down because it feels like there is no other choice. Conspiracy theories can serve as a way for individuals to satisfy this desire through rejecting expert opinion and scientific consensus.”
Over three studies involving 1000 participants, the research examined how spitefulness interacts with three established motivations for conspiracy thinking: a need to understand the world (epistemic motives), a need for security (existential motives), and a need for social significance (social motives).
As expected, higher levels of spite were associated with a stronger belief in conspiracy theories, and spite mediated the relationship between conspiracy theory belief and the three established predictors.
Dr Megan Birney, co-author from the University of Birmingham, explained: “We are not suggesting that people consciously choose to be spiteful when believing and spreading conspiracy theories. Instead, our findings suggest that feelings of disadvantage in those three areas can provoke a common psychological – spiteful –
response, one that makes individuals more receptive to believing conspiracy theories.”
In the research, the strongest relationship was between belief, spite and uncertainty about the world. The researchers believe the latter could be offset by effective science communication and media literacy around complex topics aimed at countering misinformation.
The results also have the broader implications. They suggest that efforts to combat belief in conspiracy theories should not focus solely on countering misinformation but also address the social and political conditions that foster feelings of disenfranchisement, precariousness and competition.
“If we understand conspiracy beliefs as a manifestation of spite – a reaction to real or perceived social and economic disadvantage – then tackling misinformation is inseparable from addressing broader societal issues such as financial insecurity and inequality,” added Dr Gordon.
Spite and Science-Denial: Exploring the Role of Spitefulness in Conspiracy Ideation and COVID-19 Conspiracy Beliefs
A ski festival is good, but does it have to cost so much?
The 2025 Ski World Championships are underway now in Trondheim, Norway, where the city has been preparing for several years for the event. But why do events like these cost so much?
How can big events like ski festivals be held in a way that is enjoyable for everyone but that doesn't break the bank? Researchers from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology are studying this exact question.
Researchers at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology's (NTNU) Business School have taken a careful look into why many large sports events often cost more than expected. They have some ideas about how these overruns can be avoided. You can read more about that lower in this article.
Festivals have great value
If we turn the dial back to 1997 and the last time Trondheim hosted the World Ski Championships, there was a fair amount of scepticism before the event. But what a festival it was!
Trondheim also hosted the major sailing regatta Cutty Sark and the city celebrated its 1000th anniversary that same year.All of this contributed to upgrading areas of the city, and an increased use of the city by residents, says Harry Arne Solberg, a professor at NTNU’s Business School.
This year's World Ski Championships look to be a huge public celebration, which can be an important psychological benefit, he said.
Must weigh the costs
The fact that a sporting event costs a lot of money is not in itself a problem, Becker said.
But the cost should be considered as early as during the application process, where the costs are weighed against the societal benefit compared to other, perhaps less spectacular, but important purposes.The money should logically be spent where it provides the most benefit, Becker said.
He adds that cost overruns are not necessarily a problem in themselves, as long as they do not come at the expense of other important societal needs, such as kindergartens, elderly care and other critical infrastructure.Becker compares the decision making to a person’s night on the town that doesn’t necessarily end the way it was planned.
“If I go to the city to meet friends and end up drinking seven beers instead of three, and taking a taxi home instead of the bus, maybe I should have foreseen it, since has happened many times before,” he said.
“I may regret it when I see my bank statement the next day, but I am the one who is responsible for my choices. Does the same apply to sports events?” he said rhetorically.
Reuse of existing facilities
One of the researchers’ suggestions is to spread the different races and activities for large sports events across several facilities in the region or in the country. This allows existing facilities to be reused, and avoids the expense of new facilities.
For example, the ski jumping events for the World Championships could have been held at Holmenkollen on the outskirts of Oslo, or in Lillehammer, where there are facilities from the 1994 Winter Olympics. The other events could have then been held in Trondheim, Solberg said.
Holmenkollen was given a major upgrade before the World Ski Championships in Oslo in 2011. It cost a whopping NOK 1.825 billion, or about EUR 156 million, which caused a great deal of debate when the bill landed with the Oslo municipality.
The international ski federation FIS demanded this comprehensive upgrade. However, the event itself made a solid profit, but the investments were far higher than planned.The researchers have been studying the World Ski Championships in Oslo among others to understand why major events often cost far more than budgeted.
White elephants
Norway has about 300 ski jumpers who are qualified to use the nation’s large ski jumping hills. It is not certain that the new ski jumping facility at Granåsen will have such great general utility value after the World Ski Championships, Solberg said.
Sports economists call facilities with excess capacity “white elephants”.
A white elephant is something that costs more to operate and maintain than it manages to bring in in terms of income or benefit. The expression originates from white elephants in Southeast Asia that were seen as sacred animals and could therefore neither be put to work nor removed.
The costs for Trondheim’s Spektrum, a 12,000 seat concert hall and arena, and the ski jumping hill in Granåsen are relatively similar. Spektrum is used for international championships, but also almost 24/7 by grassroots sports teams. The ski jump, in contrast, is used daily by a few athletes. A swimming pool would also be of far greater benefit to the local population than the ski jump, Solberg said.
“On the other hand, only large sports events like the World Championships provide an opportunity to upgrade large facilities, such as the Granåsen ski jump,” he added.
The math
The company Ski-VM Trondheim 2025 is responsible for the implementation of the championship itself. The development of the facility in Granåsen, which has laid the foundation for such a large championship to be organized in Trondheim, is the responsibility of the municipality, county and national government.
The Granåsen facility has cost NOK 1.7 billion, or roughly EUR 145 million.This total includes the construction of the normal and large slopes with associated facilities, the joint building at the ski jumps, a biathlon facility, roller ski trails, the top sports centre, the stadium facility at the cross-country arena, a new ski bridge, buildings for operations and machinery, supply roads and the football hall between the main road and the ski resorts, according to the regional newspaper Adresseavisen.
The state has contributed almost NOK 500 million (EUR 42 million), while NOK 51.5 million (EUR4.4 million) came from lottery sales (Norwegian betting). Trøndelag County has provided NOK 10 million (EUR 856,000). Trondheim municipality has provided NOK 1.1 billion (EUR 94 million).
Research on the 2025 Ski World Championships
Researchers will collect more concrete knowledge about the Ski World Championships in Trondheim through a research project on the event. The Ministry of Education and Research has allocated money for the research project, which you can read more about here: Project description KUD (in Norwegian)
The challenge
Implementing and holding a major sports event is a complex task with many players and moving pieces.
Becker points out that many of the actors have room to manoeuvre to spend money that they do not have to contribute themselves, they can make demands that they do not have to finance themselves, or they can dispose of funds from others without sufficient control from those who actually own the funds (such as society at large, or taxpayers).
“This can lead to overspending and a lack of cost control, which creates financial challenges as well as arguments and disappointment related to who pays the bill,” Becker said.
The solution
To counter these challenges, the researchers propose establishing an expertise bank that will ensure the systematic transfer of experience and knowledge.
A shared body of information can help developers avoid repeating previous mistakes, reduce the risk of pitfalls and provide better control over both processes and costs.
The researchers recommend that this expertise bank be managed by an independent institution, which could include the following tasks:
* Counter strategic budgeting, where cost estimates are kept artificially low to ensure events are allocated to cities where the costs “appear” to be low but may not be.
* Promote collaboration with other applicant cities, which can make it more difficult for the international federations to play applicant cities off against each other in bidding wars.
* Assess whether the use of resources on sports events provides a risk-adjusted societal value that is greater than or equal to the best alternative use of the funds.
* Ensure that the allocation of events prioritizes destinations that have a competitive advantage, such as awarding a winter championship event to a winter sports destination.
* Implement risk and profit sharing mechanisms, so that organizers take greater responsibility for financial uncertainties.While risks associated with major sporting events cannot be eliminated, strategies like these can contribute to more realistic and responsible budgets, the researchers said.
Research shows that AI language models, such as ChatGPT, are sensitive to emotional content. Especially if it is negative, such as stories of trauma or statements about depression. When people are scared, it affects their cognitive and social biases: they tend to feel more resentment, which reinforces social stereotypes. ChatGPT reacts similarly to negative emotions: existing biases, such as human prejudice, are exacerbated by negative content, causing ChatGPT to behave in a more racist or sexist manner.
This poses a problem for the application of large language models. This can be observed, for example, in the field of psychotherapy, where chatbots used as support or counseling tools are inevitably exposed to negative, distressing content. However, common approaches to improving AI systems in such situations, such as extensive retraining, are resource-intensive and often not feasible.
Traumatic content increases chatbot “anxiety”
In collaboration with researchers from Israel, the United States and Germany, scientists from the University of Zurich (UZH) and the University Hospital of Psychiatry Zurich (PUK) have now systematically investigated for the first time how ChatGPT (version GPT-4) responds to emotionally distressing stories – car accidents, natural disasters, interpersonal violence, military experiences and combat situations. They found that the system showed more fear responses as a result. A vacuum cleaner instruction manual served as a control text to compare with the traumatic content.
“The results were clear: traumatic stories more than doubled the measurable anxiety levels of the AI, while the neutral control text did not lead to any increase in anxiety levels,” says Tobias Spiller, senior physician ad interim and junior research group leader at the Center for Psychiatric Research at UZH, who led the study. Of the content tested, descriptions of military experiences and combat situations elicited the strongest reactions.
Therapeutic prompts “soothe” the AI
In a second step, the researchers used therapeutic statements to “calm” GPT-4. The technique, known as prompt injection, involves inserting additional instructions or text into communications with AI systems to influence their behavior. It is often misused for malicious purposes, such as bypassing security mechanisms.
Spiller’s team is now the first to use this technique therapeutically, as a form of “benign prompt injection”. “Using GPT-4, we injected calming, therapeutic text into the chat history, much like a therapist might guide a patient through relaxation exercises,” says Spiller. The intervention was successful: “The mindfulness exercises significantly reduced the elevated anxiety levels, although we couldn’t quite return them to their baseline levels,” Spiller says. The research looked at breathing techniques, exercises that focus on bodily sensations and an exercise developed by ChatGPT itself.
Improving the emotional stability in AI systems
According to the researchers, the findings are particularly relevant for the use of AI chatbots in healthcare, where they are often exposed to emotionally charged content. “This cost-effective approach could improve the stability and reliability of AI in sensitive contexts, such as supporting people with mental illness, without the need for extensive retraining of the models,” concludes Tobias Spiller.
It remains to be seen how these findings can be applied to other AI models and languages, how the dynamics develop in longer conversations and complex arguments, and how the emotional stability of the systems affects their performance in different application areas. According to Spiller, the development of automated “therapeutic interventions” for AI systems is likely to become a promising area of research.
Both parameterization schemes have a significant positive impact on the track and intensity predictions of Typhoon Kompasu (2118) after 60 hours of model integration.
To reduce the loss of human lives and damage to property caused by typhoon disasters, it is crucial to continuously improve numerical models and enhance their capacity to forecast typhoon tracks and intensities. Numerical models serve as important tools in typhoon numerical simulations and operational forecasts. Since 1990, the accuracy of typhoon track forecasts using numerical models has gradually improved. However, improvement in intensity forecasts has been slow.
Dr. Xiaowei Tan from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China, and her colleagues, have recently had a paper entitled "Typhoon Kompasu (2118) simulation with planetary boundary layer and cloud physics parameterization improvements" published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters. Their study introduces a new parameterization scheme for friction velocity at the ocean surface and a two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM operational model, replacing the original schemes.
The statistical results show both parameterization schemes improve the predictions of Typhoon Kompasu’s track and intensity. The possible reasons for the impacts are further discussed. Additional analysis reveals that these two schemes affect the timing and magnitude of extreme tropical cyclone intensity values by influencing the evolution of the tropical cyclone's warm-core structure.
Moreover, this study also suggests a novel approach for evaluating tropical cyclone forecasting capabilities by incorporating the error in the timing of peak intensity into model verification. This comprehensive evaluation method could provide valuable insights, aiding in the further refinement of numerical models and ultimately enhancing our ability to predict and respond to typhoons more effectively.
The author, Dr. Timo Särkkä works as a Senior Researcher at the Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, Finland. The research was conducted in collaboration with the Division of Global History Studies, Institute for Open and Transdisciplinary Research Initiatives, Osaka University, Japan.
A long-term perspective on mining finance revealed that thus far the colonial governments have been the main focus in the history of colonialism in Central Africa, with little focus in many instances on the mining companies which have outlived them.
The burning issue of climate change has in recent years been the prime mover behind the ever-growing demand for metals of high industrial use such as and cobalt and copper, so sorely needed for electric transport and communications.
The world’s single most important source of cobalt and copper is the Central African Copperbelt which supplies approximately 70 percent of world’s cobalt and 10 percent of the world’s copper.
The quest for base metals such as copper was fuelled by the rising tempo of Western electrical industrialisation in the 1890s. Demand for copper and other chemical elements in the ore such as cobalt gave the rise to the Western mining industry, which dominated the Central African Copperbelt until the end of the colonial era.
In the post-colonial era, Chinese investors have been the most noticeable stakeholders in the development of mines and related infrastructure in the Copperbelt. Today, the extractive industries lobby themselves as being in the service of the transition away from fossil fuels, claiming to be in the business of mining minerals necessary for the green transition.
In addition to the discourse that the increasing consumption of minerals is essential to sustaining the modern lifestyle and industrial growth, accelerating climate change has touched off an increasingly urgent discourse of the generic, global ecological challenges. These changes in orientation have triggered a growing interest in documenting the extractive industry’s history in Central Africa.
The book is in a significant contribution to the economic, financial and business history of mining and extractive industries, Central Africa, the City of London and early forms of financial capitalism. It is published Routledge Explorations in Economic History book series and its Open Access version is available at the publisher’s website at Mining and Financial Imperialism: The Central African Copper Bonanza
The author, Dr. Timo Särkkä works as a Senior Researcher at the Department of History and Ethnology, University of Jyväskylä, Finland. The research was conducted in collaboration with the Division of Global History Studies, Institute for Open and Transdisciplinary Research Initiatives, Osaka University, Japan.
For more information, please contact the author, Dr. Timo Särkkä, timo.sarkka@jyu.fi
