It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Friday, October 29, 2021
Running shoe material inspired 3D-printed design to protect buildings from impact damage
Dr Tatheer Zahra was inspired by a material used in running shoes and memory foam pillows to design a 3D-printed product that could help protect buildings from collision damage and other high impact forces, equivalent to a car traveling at 60km/hr.
Credit: QUT
A material used in running shoes and memory foam pillows has inspired the design of a 3-D-printed product that could help protect buildings from collision damage and other high impact forces, equivalent to a car traveling at 60km/hr.
Published in Smart Materials and Structures, Dr. Tatheer Zahra from the QUT Centre for Materials Science and QUT School of Civil and Environmental Engineering used off-the-shelf bioplastic to 3-D print geometric shapes that mimic the behavior of auxetic materials.
"Rather than flattening when stretched or bulging when compressed, auxetic materials expand or contract in all directions at once, which makes them highly energy-absorbent and load resistant," Dr. Zahra said.
"But existing commercial auxetic material is expensive and not locally available, so I designed geometric shapes that achieved the same behavior."
Dr. Zahra said 3-D printing auxetic geometries could potentially replace steel and fiber reinforced polymer mesh reinforcements in composites, and could also be used as a flexible and widely applicable protective wall render.
She said the energy absorption would be equivalent to a 20mm thick reinforced composite protective render over a full-scale building wall, which could potentially withstand the impact force of a car traveling at 60km/hr.
A 180g auxetic geometry resists 25kN force (approx. 2500kg) by contracting in all directions to absorb energy of around 260 J without showing damage or changes in shape when released. If scaled-up, these geometries may be useful in saving buildings and other structures from collision impact. Credit: QUT
"At scale, composites embedded with these geometries could theoretically resist high impact or shock energy caused by gas explosions, earthquakes and wind forces, and car collisions."
"In Australia, there's an estimated 2000 vehicular crashes each year. Direct building damage cost at 2.5 per cent would put the damage bill at about $38.65M/year for housing."
"Since vehicles also crash into apartments, office building, restaurants and convenience stores, this cost of building damage would probably be higher."
"Loss of life would be the highest cost."
Dr. Zahra said protection for masonry walls was especially important because it was an essential part of most commercial and residential buildings.
"Masonry is a very cheap material that is resilient to noise, heat, and has better fire protection properties compared to wood or steel, but its mortar joints weaken the overall structural strength."
Credit: QUT
"If auxetic geometries were embedded into the mortar to make protective composites, they would also be protected from microorganisms and temperatures over 60°C, and should last the design life of the structure," she said.
Proven at lab scale, Dr. Zahra now aims to test the designs on full scale masonry and concrete structures at the QUT Banyo Pilot Plant.
"The designs would be good prospects for commercialisation through additive manufacturing because the production process is flexible and materials are readily available," Dr. Zahra said.
"3-D printing would also allow us to change the material, size or design of geometric shapes to suit different structures and load requirements."
Dr. Zahra said bioplastics provided a more sustainable, low carbon emission alternative to fiber-reinforced plastic or other non-biodegradable polymers.
She said it was also more cost effective than using available auxetic fabrics, which could cost up to $400 per square meter and were not biodegradable.
Mike Pence endorses a fringe dissident group to lead Iran, calling the leader of the group that forbids members from sexual thoughts 'an inspiration'
Bryan Metzger
Mike Pence endorsed the MEK, a fringe Iranian dissident group with little support in Iran.
The group forbids members from thinking sexual thoughts, considering them a distraction from their goals.
Rudy Giuliani, John Bolton, and Mike Pompeo have also endorsed the group.
Former Vice President Mike Pence offered his support on Thursday to a fringe Iranian dissident group that seeks to overthrow the Iranian government, calling the group's long-time leader, Maryam Rajavi, an "inspiration to the world."
"One of the biggest lies the ruling regime has sold the world is that there's no alternative to the status quo," Pence said, referring to Iran's theocratic government, where an ayatollah wields supreme power and influences who can run for elected positions. "But there is an alternative, a well-organized, fully prepared, perfectly qualified and popularly supported alternative called the MEK."
The room then erupted in cheers, with members of the audience chanting the phrase "M-E-K" repeatedly.
"The MEK is committed to democracy, human rights, and freedom for every citizen of Iran. And it's led by an extraordinary woman. Mrs. Rajavi is an inspiration to the world," Pence declared.
The former vice president criticized the Biden administration for its "embrace" of the JCPOA, or the Iran nuclear deal, from which the Trump administration withdrew the United States in 2018. Negotiations between the US and Iran over reviving the nuclear accord remain stalled.
Maryam Rajavi has been the leader of the mysterious group ever since the group's previous leader, Rajavi's husband Massoud, disappeared during the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, where the group was formerly headquartered.
Both the New York Times and BBC report that the group forbids members from thinking sexual thoughts, participating in "self-criticism rituals" and record any such thoughts in a notebook.
"We had a little notebook, and if we had any sexual moments we should write them down. For example, 'Today, in the morning, I had an erection,'" a former member of the group told the BBC.
"You can't have a personal life when you're struggling for a cause," a current member told the Times.
It is unclear whether Pence was paid to speak to the group, and a spokesperson for Pence did not respond to a request for comment.
Brazil scientists test frozen jaguar semen to help species
DIANE JEANTET and TATIANA POLLASTRI Fri, October 29, 2021,
JUNDIAI, Brazil (AP) — Brazilian and American scientists on Thursday tranquilized a wild-born female jaguar now living in a protected area in Sao Paulo state. They're hoping the 110-pound feline named Bianca could make history for the second time in two years.
In 2019, Bianca gave birth to the first jaguar cub ever born from artificial insemination. Now, the 8-year-old could once again advance the cause of preserving her species. That is, if all goes according to plan and she becomes pregnant using semen that is frozen.
Scientists say frozen semen would be easy to transport, and so help ensure genetic diversity of jaguars whose populations are increasingly fragmented by habitat destruction, according to Lindsey Vansandt, a theriogenologist — a specialist in veterinary reproductive medicine — at the Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden.
“The population sort of becomes smaller and smaller, and then you get inbreeding which has lots of bad consequences,” Vansandt told The Associated Press moments after performing the procedure on an unconscious Bianca atop a surgery table.
“If we can take sperm from one male and inseminate a female from another location, we can keep their gene flow moving and keep the population more healthy," Vansandt said.
Wildlife experts from the Cincinnati Zoo, the Federal University of Mato Grosso and the environmental organization Mata Ciliar have for years developed their insemination program for the Western Hemisphere's largest feline. They work with individuals rescued from habitat loss in the Amazon rainforest, Cerrado savanna and Pantanal wetlands, all of which have suffered a surge of deforestation and fires in recent years.
“Look what happened in the Pantanal, the Cerrado,” said Cristina Adania, a veterinarian and coordinator of Mata Ciliar. "They are being killed before we even get to treat them, so something has to be done.”
Displaced jaguars are unlikely to thrive in new environments, which may be the range of another territorial individual, according to Panthera. Plus, they are unfamiliar with where best to find prey, which can leave them hunting livestock, putting them in ranchers' crosshairs.
The International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Red List classifies jaguars as “near threatened” — a grade above vulnerable — though their population is on the decline and their habitat “severely fragmented.”
Bianca was still a cub in the Amazon when she was rescued and delivered to Mata Ciliar. Like some of the wild-born cats living at the Brazilian Center for the Conservation of Neotropical Felines in Jundiai, she can't be reintroduced to the wild, Adania said. Another female jaguar at the facility, named Tabatinga, was also artificially inseminated on Thursday.
Unfrozen jaguar semen only stays good for a few hours, Vansandt said. Frozen semen can be used for years, but typically has a lower success rate for felines than with humans.
If Bianca's case is successful, it would remove the strain and stress of transporting carnivores that weigh as much as 300 pounds to mate in person. Even when a jaguar is transported, there's no guarantee it will get along with its would-be mate, said Adania.
“This is good for genetic diversity, but also towards that larger goal of increasing the number of jaguars,” said Vansandt. "The dream is to increase the numbers to a stable population.”
___ Jeantet reported from Rio de Janeiro. AP reporter David Biller contributed from Rio de Janeiro.
Veterinarians intubate a jaguar in preparation for an artificial insemination procedure at the Mata Ciliar Association conservation center, in Jundiai, Brazil, Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021. According to the environmental organization, the fertility program intends to develop a reproduction system to be tested on captive jaguars and later bring it to wild felines whose habitats are increasingly under threat from fires and deforestation. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)
Brazil Jaguar BreedingA jaguar that was rescued from illegal captivity walks on a tree trunk at the Mata Ciliar Association conservation center, in Jundiai, Brazil, Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021. The association treats animals that have been victims of fires, environmental disasters or traffickers, and rehabilitates the wild animals in order to release them to their natural habitat. (AP Photo/Andre Penner)More
G-20 will back a global minimum corporate tax, a win for Biden, U.S. officials Chris Megerian Fri, October 29, 2021,
President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden take part in a ceremony with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi in Rome on Friday, the eve of the start of the G-20 summit. (Gregorio Borgia / Associated Press)
World leaders are expected on Saturday to endorse plans for a global minimum tax on corporations during the first day of the G-20 summit, senior Biden administration officials said.
The policy is intended to prevent businesses from skipping from country to country in search of lower tax rates, an approach that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called a "race to the bottom."
"It’s a game changer for American workers, taxpayers and businesses," said one of the senior officials, who requested anonymity to speak before the announcement. "In our judgment, this is more than just a tax deal. It's a reshaping of the rules of the global economy."
The deal will buoy President Biden, who has been pushing for such an agreement since taking office. It's unclear if he'll be able to push the policy through a sharply divided Congress. Republicans are opposed to any tax increases, and some moderate Democrats are wary of such measures.
Biden will have a busy first day at the summit, which brings together world leaders to discuss economic and other issues. The president will meet with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, with whom Biden held a pre-summit sidebar Friday, to discuss how to proceed with negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.
Although President Obama reached an international deal to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear bomb, President Trump withdrew from the pact.
Biden campaigned on reentering the agreement, and talks are scheduled to begin in November in Vienna.
Dutch, Canadian leaders hope for climate progress at G-20
Netherlands CanadaCanada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, right, and Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte, greet prior to a meeting in The Hague, Netherlands, Friday, Oct. 29, 2021.
(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)More
Fri, October 29, 2021, 10:30 AM·2 min read
THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) — Canada and the Netherlands are counting on the weekend Group of 20 summit in Rome to make significant progress toward clinching an acceptable deal at the United Nations climate meeting starting immediately afterward.
After a bilateral meeting Friday with his Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte in The Hague, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that the timing of the G-20 summit in Rome could help the climate talks known as COP26 that start in Glasgow on Sunday.
“The fact that the G-20 is immediately before COP26 allows some of the major countries around the world responsible for significant emissions to actually meet and work in advance of hopefully what will be a very successful COP,” meeting, Trudeau said.
At the moment, plans from nations around the world submitted ahead of COP26 would still fall far short of the headline goal set in Paris six years ago: to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times. The world has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since that era.
Rutte estimated that plans combined so far ahead of the climate summit that runs Oct. 31-Nov. 12 in Glasgow would still mean a rise of 2.7 C.
“So there is still a gap. And there is still a lot we need to do,” he said.
Despite the daunting challenge, Rutte said he had two reasons for optimism: "One is that there’s no way not to do this because then we collectively have such a big problem and everybody understands,” he said.
“Secondly, because it is such a big opportunity — the huge opportunity we see in this country for creating so many new jobs and new economic prosperity at the same time. Building a clean country,” Rutte said.
US Democratic governors to participate in U.N. climate talks
KATHLEEN RONAYNE Fri, October 29, 2021
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — U.S. governors want a seat at the table as international leaders prepare to gather in Scotland at a critical moment for global efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions and slow the planet's temperature rise.
At least a half dozen state governors — all Democrats — plan to attend parts of the two-week United Nations' climate change conference in Glasgow, known as COP26. Though states aren't official parties to talks, governors hold significant sway over the United States' approach to tackling climate change by setting targets for reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy.
Take California, where Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has pledged to halt the sale of new gas-powered cars in the state by 2035, a move aimed at accelerating the nation's transition to electric vehicles. Or Washington, where Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee backed legislation requiring the state's electricity be carbon-neutral by 2030.
“Governors can do a lot," said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institute. “When they're talking to people on the sidelines and sharing policies and ideas and helping to demonstrate the commitment of the U.S. as a whole, there's quite a bit that they can do."
Governors slated to attend are Inslee, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Hawaii Gov. David Ige, Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Oregon Gov. Kate Brown. All six governors are part of the U.S. Climate Alliance, an effort started by Inslee and former Govs. Jerry Brown of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York in 2017 as the Trump administration backed away from U.S. climate goals. The alliance plans to announce “ambitious" new climate commitments in Scotland, though it hasn't shared specifics.
Newsom announced Friday he would participate virtually due to unspecified family obligations. California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis will instead lead the state's delegation, which includes more than a dozen lawmakers and top administration officials.
“All eyes will be on Glasgow, with the world asking the question: ‘What are we doing to do about (climate change)?’” Kounalakis said. “And California has answers.”
Other states sending officials include Maryland and Massachusetts, which have Republican governors.
Few U.S. states are as influential as California, which is home to nearly 40 million people and would be the world's fifth-largest economy if it were its own nation. It's led the nation in vehicle emissions standards, was the first state to launch a carbon pollution credit program known as cap-and-trade and has set some of the nation's most ambitious goals on reducing emissions.
It's the nation's seventh-largest oil producing state, though Newsom officials say the state has six times as many jobs in clean energy as it does in the oil industry. Newsom has made strides to lower demand and eventually end production, but some environmental groups say he's got to act significantly faster.
Several other state leaders heading to Glasgow also come from places that rely on oil and gas production as a key piece of the economy. New Mexico's Lujan Grisham travels to the climate conference as she juggles competing pressures from environmental activists and the fossil fuel industry while running for reelection in 2022.
New Mexico is one of the top oil states. Amid surging oil output, Lujan Grisham has pushed to rein in leaks and emissions of excess natural gas by the industry and signed legislation that mandates and incentivizes New Mexico’s own transition to zero-emissions electricity by 2045.
“We — as a state, as a nation, as a planet — must go further by pursuing bold, equitable and just climate solutions. I am looking forward to this significant opportunity for collaboration and action at the global level,” Lujan Grisham said in a recent statement.
In March, Lujan Grisham wrote President Joe Biden, asking to exempt New Mexico from an executive order halting gas and oil production on federal land. Oil field royalties, taxes and lease sales account for more than one-quarter of the state's general fund budget, underwriting spending on public schools, roads and public safety.
Edwards of Louisiana, a state that's suffered significant flooding and damage from hurricanes, plans to promote his state as a hub for clean energy projects. He's set a goal to cut the state's net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, though his administration is still putting together a strategy document for reaching that goal.
“No state in our nation is more affected by climate change than Louisiana, but it’s also true that no state is better positioned to be part of the solution to the problems facing our world," he said recently.
The governors will participate on panels through the U.S. Climate Alliance alongside members of the Biden administration. They'll also participate alongside 65 subnational governments in announcing “dozens" of new commitments on Nov. 7. The panel will also focus on politics that can “turbocharge greenhouse gas emissions reductions," according to an alliance press release.
“Governors and mayors around the world do not believe we should rely just on our federal governments," Inslee, of Washington, said during a Thursday news conference.
It's critical for U.S. and world leaders to move from planning to implementation of aggressive climate strategies, said Katelyn Sutter, senior manager for U.S. climate at the Environmental Defense Fund.
“We need policy to back up pledges to reduce emissions," she said. “That’s where a state like California, and now Washington and others that have momentum moving forward, can really be impactful."
As for California, Newsom administration officials said they hope to demonstrate that tackling the climate crisis can be good for the economy and that pollution targets should be made with historically underserved communities in mind. The administration recently proposed banning new oil wells within 3,200 feet (975 meters) of homes, schools and hospitals, and Newsom has directed the state's air regulator to develop a plan to end oil production by 2045.
“We can help push national governments to increase their ambition," said Lauren Sanchez, Newsom’s senior adviser for climate.
___
This story has been corrected to say the Republican-led states sending representatives are Maryland and Massachusetts, not Maryland and North Carolina.
___
Associated Press writers Morgan Lee in Santa Fe, N.M., Melinda Deslatte in Baton Rouge, La., and John O'Connor in Springfield, Ill., contributed reporting.
COPOUT26
Scientists express doubt that Glasgow climate change conference will be successful
If there is a consensus about the forthcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, it is that it represents, in the words of U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, the “last best hope” for the world to keep the worst consequences of global warming at bay.
But for many of the scientists whose work has informed the grim reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in recent years, the chances that an agreement will be reached to keep global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels seem dim, at best. With the currently insufficient actions from developed countries to limit greenhouse gas emissions and fund developing nations in that pursuit, temperatures are forecast to smash through that threshold. And a growing body of research, some conducted by scientists who spoke with Yahoo News’ “The Climate Crisis Podcast,” shows that a cascade of dire consequences is all but certain to follow.
“Well, it is a critical time. You know, this is COP26, which means there have been 25 of these things already,” said Peter Gleick, a climate scientist, referring to the conference’s acronym. “We’re way behind the curve in acting on what we have known for many, many years to be the reality, which is that humans are changing the climate, that those changes are going to be bad, that they’re going to accelerate as we move forward if we don’t get emissions under control, and that we're running out of time to prevent the worst-case scenarios from occurring.”
A co-founder of the Pacific Institute in Oakland, Calif., Gleick has spent decades warning that rising temperatures have begun to wreak havoc with the water cycle, including more severe drought, deadly flash flooding and crop instability.
“A lot of us are looking forward to COP26 as an opportunity to make some real progress, but of course we’re worried that COP26 will turn out to be like COP25 and COP24 and COP23 beforehand, before us, and not really produce the kinds of changes that we know are necessary,” Gleick said, referring to previous U.N. climate change conferences that have inspired good intentions but not substantial enough actions from the wealthier countries that produce most of the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming.
As far as the scientific community is concerned, there’s little mystery about what’s responsible for climate change. A review published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters looked at 88,128 scientific papers on climate change published between 2012 and 2020 and concluded that 99.9 percent of the studies agreed that human beings were responsible for the current spike in global temperatures.
For UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, the only real suspense heading into Glasgow concerns whether world leaders will forge a consensus on how to act on what, scientifically speaking, is an open-and-shut case.
“We know how to solve this problem. We know the kinds of specific things we need to be doing even to fix the problem,” Swain told “The Climate Crisis Podcast.” “But that will involve a significant amount of social and economic, you know, inertia, that needs to shift pretty quickly. And that’s hard to do.”
A lead author of one of the IPCC reports that have synthesized the research on climate change and helped guide policymakers on how to keep global temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius, Stanford University climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh has not been encouraged by the actions taken since COP21 in 2015, when many nations signed on to the Paris Agreement.
“The United Nations actually just issued a report in advance of the Glasgow negotiations that are coming up, basically tracking where the countries of the world are relative to the the Paris Agreement goals, and that puts the world on a trajectory that’s a lot above two and a half degrees [Celsius] of warming, and approaching three,” Diffenbaugh said.
This year, a string of deadly extreme weather events in the U.S. showed many Americans that the threat from climate change is real. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, weather-related disasters in 2021 have already totaled over $100 billion in damages and killed 538 people in the U.S.
Yet a Yahoo News poll released last week finds that while 50 percent of Americans now view climate change as an “emergency,” there is a partisan divide on the question. Though 78 percent of Democrats see climate change as “an existential threat that requires major legislation,” just 24 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents do.
At the same time, armed with more advanced computer modeling and thousands of new studies to back them up, climate scientists have grown increasingly confident linking those events to climate change.
Researchers like Benjamin Strauss, president and CEO of Climate Central, a nonprofit news organization that analyzes climate science, have long warned exactly what rising temperatures will mean for life on Earth. In 2012, Strauss testified before Congress on the number of homes in the U.S. that would be put at risk due to rising seas. He knows firsthand that domestic political gridlock on climate change could weigh heavily on Glasgow.
“I know that President Biden and the administration really want — as represented by John Kerry in the talks — to be ambitious and to encourage other nations of the world to be ambitious,” Strauss said. “And it’s going to be really hard to do if in the United States we don’t have some form of legislation or policy either in place or, you know, imminent, that’s going to be a big step in our own effort.”
While Congress continues to debate the legislation that will determine how aggressively the U.S. will go about the task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has already killed the most powerful weapon in the president’s plan to do so: the Clean Electricity Performance Program.
The failure to enact an agenda that would be seen as restoring American climate leadership on the world stage comes as a stark reminder that any promises of future U.S. emissions cuts will require action in Congress. Yet the inward focus of many Republicans and some moderate Democrats like Manchin worries climate experts. Klaus Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute who served for more than a decade on the New York City Panel of Climate Change, stresses that for new Glasgow commitments to have real impact, they’ll need to look beyond America’s borders.
“We’ve got to have a global plan that works both on the mitigation side, namely to reduce greenhouse gases as quickly as possible and get that financed internationally,” Jacob said, “and not just the main emitters — nations like the U.S., China, Brazil or Europe, and maybe India. But we also have to address it on the adaptation side, and just think about nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam, that have tens and hundreds of millions of people that by the end of the century will have to be moved.”
For many climate scientists, the mood ahead of Glasgow can best be described as one of grim realism. Despite that, many of those who spoke to Yahoo News also expressed a measure of optimism that human beings can still significantly slow climate change.
“We’re still where we were five or 10 years ago. You know, there’s a lot of pledges, there’s a lot of commitments that even then aren’t enough to solve the problem, but we aren’t really on track to meet a lot of those pledges that we’d previously made,” Swain said. “That's kind of the world that we live in right now, which is this tension between the fact that this is at a fundamental level a solvable problem, but we’ve so far not taken it seriously enough. I liken it more to being on a train, not a runaway train where the brakes don't work, but a train where the brakes are perfectly functional, but the conductor is just actively choosing not to apply them. So if we choose to apply the brakes, the train will slow down and come to a halt. But so far, we’re still just thinking about tapping the brakes lightly. It's not enough.”
Ben Adler contributed reporting to this story.
What Big Oil knew about climate change,
in its own words
Benjamin Franta, Ph.D. Candidate in History, Stanford University Fri, October 29, 2021
The oil industry was aware of the risks of climate change decades ago.
Four years ago, I traveled around America, visiting historical archives. I was looking for documents that might reveal the hidden history of climate change – and in particular, when the major coal, oil and gas companies became aware of the problem, and what they knew about it.
I pored over boxes of papers, thousands of pages. I began to recognize typewriter fonts from the 1960s and ‘70s and marveled at the legibility of past penmanship, and got used to squinting when it wasn’t so clear.
What those papers revealed is now changing our understanding of how climate change became a crisis. The industry’s own words, as my research found, show companies knew about the risk long before most of the rest of the world.
On Oct. 28, 2021, a Congressional subcommittee questioned executives from Exxon, BP, Chevron, Shell and the American Petroleum Institute about industry efforts to downplay the role of fossil fuels in climate change. Exxon CEO Darren Woods told lawmakers that his company’s public statements “are and have always been truthful” and that the company “does not spread disinformation regarding climate change.” Here’s what corporate documents from the past six decades show.
Surprising discoveries At an old gunpowder factory in Delaware – now a museum and archive – I found a transcript of a petroleum conference from 1959 called the “Energy and Man” symposium, held at Columbia University in New York. As I flipped through, I saw a speech from a famous scientist, Edward Teller (who helped invent the hydrogen bomb), warning the industry executives and others assembled of global warming.
“Whenever you burn conventional fuel,” Teller explained, “you create carbon dioxide. … Its presence in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect.” If the world kept using fossil fuels, the ice caps would begin to melt, raising sea levels. Eventually, “all the coastal cities would be covered,” he warned. 1959 was before the moon landing, before the Beatles’ first single, before Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech, before the first modern aluminum can was ever made. It was decades before I was born. What else was out there? In Wyoming, I found another speech at the university archives in Laramie – this one from 1965, and from an oil executive himself. That year, at the annual meeting of the American Petroleum Institute, the main organization for the U.S. oil industry, the group’s president, Frank Ikard, mentioning a report called “Restoring the Quality of Our Environment” that had been published just a few days before by President Lyndon Johnson’s team of scientific advisers.
“The substance of the report,” Ikard told the industry audience, “is that there is still time to save the world’s peoples from the catastrophic consequences of pollution, but time is running out.” He continued that “One of the most important predictions of the report is that carbon dioxide is being added to the earth’s atmosphere by the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas at such a rate that by the year 2000 the heat balance will be so modified as possibly to cause marked changes in climate.”
Ikard noted that the report had found that a “nonpolluting means of powering automobiles, buses, and trucks is likely to become a national necessity.”
As I reviewed my findings back in California, I realized that before San Francisco’s Summer of Love, before Woodstock, the peak of the '60s counterculture and all that stuff that seemed ancient history to me, the heads of the oil industry had been privately informed by their own leaders that their products would eventually alter the climate of the entire planet, with dangerous consequences.
Secret research revealed the risks ahead
While I traveled the country, other researchers were hard at work too. And the documents they found were in some ways even more shocking.
By the late 1970s, the American Petroleum Institute had formed a secret committee called the “CO2 and Climate Task Force,” which included representatives of many of the major oil companies, to privately monitor and discuss the latest developments in climate science.
In 1980, the task force invited a scientist from Stanford University, John Laurmann, to brief them on the state of climate science. Today, we have a copy of Laurmann’s presentation, which warned that if fossil fuels continued to be used, global warming would be “barely noticeable” by 2005, but by the 2060s would have “globally catastrophic effects.” That same year, the American Petroleum Institute called on governments to triple coal production worldwide, insisting there would be no negative consequences despite what it knew internally.
A slide from John Laurmann’s presentation to the American Petroleum Institute’s climate change task force in 1980, warning of globally catastrophic effects from continued fossil fuel use.
Exxon had a secretive research program too. In 1981, one of its managers, Roger Cohen, sent an internal memo observing that the company’s long-term business plans could “produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth’s population).”
The next year, Exxon completed a comprehensive, 40-page internal report on climate change, which predicted almost exactly the amount of global warming we’ve seen, as well as sea level rise, drought and more. According to the front page of the report, it was “given wide circulation to Exxon management” but was “not to be distributed externally.”
And Exxon did keep it secret: We know of the report’s existence only because investigative journalists at Inside Climate News uncovered it in 2015.
A figure from Exxon’s internal climate change report from 1982, predicting how much carbon dioxide would build up from fossil fuels and how much global warming that would cause through the 21st century unless action was taken. Exxon’s projection has been remarkably accurate.
Other oil companies knew the effects their products were having on the planet too. In 1986, the Dutch oil company Shell finished an internal report nearly 100 pages long, predicting that global warming from fossil fuels would cause changes that would be “the greatest in recorded history,” including “destructive floods,” abandonment of entire countries and even forced migration around the world. That report was stamped “CONFIDENTIAL” and only brought to light in 2018 by Jelmer Mommers, a Dutch journalist.
In October 2021, I and two French colleagues published another study showing through company documents and interviews how the Paris-based oil major Total was also aware of global warming’s catastrophic potential as early as the 1970s. Despite this awareness, we found that Total then worked with Exxon to spread doubt about climate change. Big Oil’s PR pivot These companies had a choice.
Back in 1979, Exxon had privately studied options for avoiding global warming. It found that with immediate action, if the industry moved away from fossil fuels and instead focused on renewable energy, fossil fuel pollution could start to decline in the 1990s and a major climate crisis could be avoided.
But the industry didn’t pursue that path. Instead, colleagues and I recently found that in the late 1980s, Exxon and other oil companies coordinated a global effort to dispute climate science, block fossil fuel controls and keep their products flowing.
We know about it through internal documents and the words of industry insiders, who are now beginning to share what they saw with the public. We also know that in 1989, the fossil fuel industry created something called the Global Climate Coalition – but it wasn’t an environmental group like the name suggests; instead, it worked to sow doubt about climate change and lobbied lawmakers to block clean energy legislation and climate treaties throughout the 1990s.
For example, in 1997, the Global Climate Coalition’s chairman, William O'Keefe, who was also an executive vice president for the American Petroleum Institute, wrote in the Washington Post that “Climate scientists don’t say that burning oil, gas and coal is steadily warming the earth,” contradicting what the industry had known for decades. The fossil fuel industry also funded think tanks and biased studies that helped slow progress to a crawl.
Will the world experience the global catastrophe that the oil companies predicted years before I was born? That depends on what we do now, with our slice of history.
This article was updated Oct. 28, 2021, with quotes from the hearing.
Benjamin Franta has served as a consulting expert for climate change lawsuits in the US and internationally. His work has been supported by the Stanford University Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship, the Climate Social Science Network, and the Center for Climate Integrity.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Ecuador suspends mountain-climbing after deadly avalanche
Glaciers are seen on Ecuador's Chimborazo volcano
MARTIN BERNETTI AFP/File
Issued on: 30/10/2021 - Quito (AFP)
Ecuador suspended climbing on five mountains Friday due to bad weather, after an avalanche killed three climbers and left three others missing.
Climbers will not be able to access the snow-capped peaks of Cayambe, Cotopaxi, Illiniza Sur, Antisana and Chimborazo for at least a week, the Environment Ministry said. An avalanche last Sunday struck a group of 16 mountaineers ascending Chimborazo, a volcano which is the highest peak in the country, leaving three dead and three missing.
The restrictions will remain in force until the weather improves, the ministry added.
Ecuador begins a five-day holiday on Saturday, the longest of the year, during which more than a milion people are ikely to travel, according to estimates.
Oil company CEOs duck and weave in climate change hearing
Congressional Democrats may have hoped that the House Oversight Committee hearing on Thursday with oil industry CEOs about the science of climate change would yield an epic moment that revealed their mendacity, akin to the famous hearings in 1994 when top tobacco executives testified under oath that nicotine is not addictive.
If so, they were probably disappointed. Democratic lawmakers’ irritation with the witnesses was palpable as they struggled to get the executives to either make demonstrably false claims about climate science or to admit to their respective companies' past attempts to mislead the public about the matter — or even their current efforts to obstruct action to mitigate climate change.
Instead, they testified via video that their companies were simply less well-informed in the past, but that they have always followed the science.
“While our views on climate change have developed over time, any suggestion that Chevron is engaged in an effort to spread disinfo and mislead the public on these issues is simply wrong,” said Chevron CEO Michael Wirth in his opening statement.
The tobacco precedent was clearly on the minds of Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, and Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., chairman of the Subcommittee on the Environment, both of whom invoked it in their opening remarks.
“Twenty-seven years ago, seven tobacco executives appeared before Congress,” Maloney said. “Rather than admitting the truth about their product, the executives lied. This was a watershed moment in the public’s understanding of Big Tobacco. I hope that today’s hearing represents a turning point for Big Oil. I hope that today the witnesses will finally own up to the industry’s central role in this crisis and become part of the change we need.”
No such turn was taken. None of the witnesses, who included the presidents or CEOs of ExxonMobil, BP America, Chevron, Shell and the American Petroleum Institute (API), denied the scientific consensus that burning the products they sell causes global warming. But they also steadfastly refused lawmakers’ entreaties to admit that they were wrong to claim publicly for decades that human-induced climate change wasn’t necessarily occurring, even as their own internal scientists sometimes said otherwise.
When Maloney asked ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods about advertisements casting doubt on climate science that ran as recently as the early 2000s — decades after internal documents show Exxon was well aware of the greenhouse gas effect — Woods refused to admit wrongdoing. “That was consistent with what the scientific consensus was at the time,” he insisted. “And as time has progressed, we’ve continued to maintain a position that has evolved with science and is today consistent with the science.”
Nor were they willing to participate in Maloney’s and Khanna’s effort to get them to oppose their own industry’s lobbying against government action to facilitate a transition to cleaner energy sources. When Maloney asked for a promise to stop opposing climate action, Shell president Gretchen Watkins claimed her company already supports climate action, even though the groups to which it belongs, including API and the Chamber of Commerce, have lobbied hard against the climate provisions in President Biden’s Build Back Better proposal.
Khanna pleaded with Watkins to ask API CEO Mike Sommers to stop lobbying against a fee on oil and gas producers for leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
“You say you're for a well-crafted methane fee. You know who's advertising against a methane fee? API!” said Khanna. “Can you please, please ask API to stop advertising against the methane fee!”
Watkins, however, demurred. She said her company doesn’t always agree with every stance the trade association takes, something BP U.S. Lower 48 Onshore CEO David Lawler — whose company also tries to position itself as enlightened on environmental matters — emphasized.
This frustrating outcome was expected even by the committee chairs who called the witnesses themselves. In his opening statement, Khanna preemptively warned the public that the witnesses would disingenuously claim to support climate science.
“You will say your companies have contributed to academic research on climate science,” Khanna said, nominally to the assembled executives. “That is true, but that is not the issue at hand. Despite your early knowledge of climate science, your companies and the trade associations you fund chose time and again to loudly raise doubts about the science and downplay the severity of the crisis.”
Even some of the Democrats’ usually effective questioners were unable to draw blood. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., got Woods of ExxonMobil to admit that he has spoken to members of Congress about the budget and infrastructure bills currently under consideration, but when she asked whether campaign donations have ever come up in those conversations, he unequivocally said no. She also tried unsuccessfully to get him to admit that increased fossil fuel production increases his compensation.
Ultimately, she pivoted to speaking broadly about the issue at hand. “Some of us have to actually live the future that you all are setting on fire for us,” she told the witnesses. “We do not have the privilege or luxury of lobbyist spin.”
In what was probably the most compelling exchange of the day, Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., used candy in Mason jars to illustrate the discrepancy between what Shell, which claims to support renewable energy investment, spends on developing renewables such as wind and solar versus oil and gas. Porter also highlighted that Shell has not lived up to its past promises of renewable energy spending and cleverly used Watkins’s own words from her opening statement — in which she called climate change “one of the defining challenges of our time” and said renewable energy development is a “huge undertaking” for the company — against her.
"Ms. Watkins, does this look like a ‘huge undertaking’ to you?" Porter asked, brandishing an almost empty jar. “To me, this does not look like an adequate response to ‘one of the defining challenges of our time.’ This is greenwashing. Shell is trying to fool people into thinking it’s addressing the climate crisis when it’s actually continuing to put money into fossil fuels.”
In contrast with both the Democratic lawmakers’ grilling and the fossil fuel executives’ modest evasions, the Republican committee members on Thursday treated the witnesses with a deference bordering on idolatry.
“The oil and gas industry provide good-paying jobs and help Americans reliably heat their houses, power their cars and keep the lights on through the storm when the sun doesn’t shine,” said Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C.
“God bless Chevron for saying they’ll increase production,” said Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, after Wirth, the Chevron CEO, was asked why his company intends to produce more gas and oil when the climate crisis necessitates drawing down dependence on fossil fuels.
"You need an apology because what I witnessed today was just rank intimidation by the chair of this committee,” said Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., referring to Khanna’s attempt to get the witnesses to pledge to stop funding advocacy campaigns opposing action to address climate change. “Trying to get you to pledge on what you're going to spend your money on is a gross violation of the First Amendment,” Donalds claimed, inaccurately.
The only Republican-called witness was a worker who was laid off from a job building the Keystone XL oil pipeline extension, a project President Biden has stopped from moving forward. The witness was used to illustrate the talking point, repeated often, that oil and gas companies provided jobs that outweighed concerns about the warming planet and whether the companies lied to the public.
Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., the ranking Republican on the committee, argued that the whole endeavor was illegitimate. “The purpose of this hearing is clear: to deliver partisan theater for primetime news,” he said.
Whether or not that was truly the hearing’s only purpose, more dramatic theater was certainly something Democrats would have liked to see happen.
Top Dem says Big Oil put Earth on "brink" of catastrophe
Ben Geman Thu, October 28, 2021
Don't expect a sedate House hearing Thursday on allegations that Big Oil has intentionally sown doubt about climate change.
What they're saying: "For far too long, Big Oil has escaped accountability for its central role in bringing our planet to the brink of a climate catastrophe. That ends today," Rep. Carolyn Maloney, chairwoman of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, intends to say in her opening remarks shared with Axios.
She'll note it's a landmark event because it's the first time "top fossil fuel executives are testifying together before Congress, under oath, about the industry’s role in causing climate change — and their efforts to cover it up."
The big picture: Maloney's statement provides a glimpse into how senior Democrats leading the investigation into the industry's past on climate will approach the virtual hearing that's slated to be getting underway later this morning.
What we don't know (yet): That's whether the panel's probe has, thus far, unearthed anything that wasn't part of past investigations.
Inside Climate News and the Los Angeles Times have run stories showing that major companies knew decades ago that their products could cause harmful climate change, but many of them funded campaigns to downplay or deny these risks.
What they're saying: We'll have more on the event soon. But for now, here's a little more to watch.
The executives will emphasize the present day, including their company's support for emissions targets, policies like carbon pricing, and investments in cleaner tech.
"Shell shares the Committee’s concern about the urgent need for society to take action on climate change by accelerating the transition to a lower-carbon energy future," Gretchen Watkins, Shell's top U.S. official, says in written testimony.
Part of Chevron's prepared testimony looks to rebut a premise of the inquiry. "While our views on climate change have developed over time, any suggestion that Chevron is engaged in a coordinated effort to spread disinformation and mislead the public on these complex issues is simply inaccurate," CEO Mike Wirth says in remarks submitted to the panel.