Behind the rosy glasses and good news, tinkling of champagne glasses, report of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, touting the increased growth in the Tar Sands oil production, there lies the ominous Peak Oil prediction. Yep peak oil will begin in Alberta in 2020, about the time that Hubbert predicted. " production from conventional oil wells will decline by half by 2020, to only 550,000 barrels a day, CAPP predicts."
And Alberta is not the only region in Canada facing a decline in conventional gas and oil production. Canada's newest oil supply source, offshore production on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, is forecast to peak at 320,000 barrels per day in 2010 then sink by 50 per cent to 160,000 barrels daily in 2020. Slow exploration, poor drilling luck, forbidding environmental conditions and political disputes over resource ownership and revenues are expected to stall development.
So while CAPP predicts Tar Sands production will replace conventional production, that still does not mean that Peak Oil conditions will be allievated in 2020. Rather they are betting that Tar Sands production will meet world demand, however they fail to consider that their predictions are based on current world demand, not on the inevitable; increasing demand. And again they gloss over the more serious issue, our conventional oil and gas reserves are on decline. Period.
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Oil, gas, production, Peak-Oil, Hubbert, Alberta, Canada, Newfoundland, CAPP, Tar-sands, 2020
1 comment:
Peak Oil can't come soon enough, as far as I'm concerned.
Like your site, by the way. It's hell on my browser. About a third of the time your page crashes it. Don't know why.
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