Tuesday, August 18, 2026

 THE STATE IS ADDICTED TO SIN TAXES

Could the EU ban smoking? Commission to re-write rules for the next generation

REGULATE NICOTINE AS A PESTICIDE
A pack of cigarettes
Copyright Canva

By Leticia Batista Cabanas
Published on

The EU is pursuing its biggest overhaul of tobacco taxation in a decade. The proposed Tobacco Taxation Directive (TTD) raises taxes on cigarettes and introduces taxes on vapes, heated tobacco products, and nicotine pouches. After the Parliament rejected its position, Council negotiations continue.

As part of its Tobacco Control Framework Evaluation, the European Commission reviewed current tobacco laws and found that, while older rules successfully lowered traditional cigarette consumption, they are nowcompletely outdated and failing to stop a massive surge in digital marketing and novel nicotine products.

As a result, the Commission proposed a revision of the Tobacco Taxation Directive (TTD) to implement fresh rules and curb tobacco use. It remains under negotiation after the Parliament failed to adopt a formal position in June 2026, leaving the final decision to the Council of the European Union, where unanimous agreement among member states is required.

Roughly one in four Europeans still smoke or use tobacco regularly. And the problem is increasingly urgent among young people, with data showing that over 11 percent of teens aged 13 to 15 now regularly consume tobacco or trendy nicotine alternatives like flavoured disposable vapes.

“The EU continues to experience roughly 700.000 tobacco-related deaths annually. It remains a leading preventable cause of cancer and cardiovascular disease. From a public health perspective, lower taxes effectively subsidise consumption of a product that kills up to half of long-term users when used as intended”, Professor Martin McKee, Strategic Advisor at the European Public Health Association, told Euronews.

Does the EU have a cigarette problem?

300 billion cigarettes are sold annually in the EU; 24 percent of Europeans smoke, with higher rates among men than women. This massive consumer market is sustained internally, as European factories manufacture more than 220 billion cigarettes each year to meet demand.

Who smokes the most? Eurostat shows ranges from just 8 percent in Sweden up to 37 percent in Bulgaria. Regional disparities are particularly visible among males, with nearly half of the men in Bulgaria (49 percent) and Latvia (48 percent) smoking regularly, compared to less than 10 percent in Sweden.

For women, the highest use is in Greece at 32 percent, while Sweden again reports the minimum at 8 percent. Southern and Eastern European nations consistently report the highest tobacco use, with Croatia and Greece keeping overall smoking rates above 35 percent. Western and Northern European countries like the Netherlands and Denmark have driven their use down to 11 percent and 14 percent respectively.

Smoking poses huge pressures on health sectors. Chronic exposure to tobacco and nicotine results in millions of avoidable hospital admissions every year for respiratory failure, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease. Treating these long-term cardiovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases drains an estimated €25 billion annually directly from public healthcare budgets.

"Even a delay of a few years in major tobacco-control measures translates into millions of additional smokers, preventable diseases and deaths over time”, warned McKee.

The rise of vapes and IQOS

The peak of traditional tobacco consumption is among citizens aged 25 to 54. However, the market is shifting as younger generations pivot away from traditional cigarettes and towards other products.

These include e-cigarettes or vapes (which heat a liquid with nicotine and flavourings into an inhalable aerosol) and heated tobacco products, such as IQOS, which warm processed tobacco without burning it. Nicotine pouches deliver nicotine orally without containing tobacco leaf.

Health authorities consider these products less harmful than conventional cigarettes, but not risk-free. Studies by several health organisations identified potentially harmful substances, including formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acrolein, while nicotine itself remains highly addictive. Public health experts also warn that nicotine exposure during adolescence can affect brain development and increase the risk of long-term dependence.

According to the World Health Organization, 11.6 percent of teens aged 13 to 15 in the European region use these products. "Marketing and product design are important drivers. Common features include flavours attractive to young consumers, heavy social-media promotion, lifestyle branding, claims that products are modern, cleaner or safer, and discreet designs that are easy to conceal”, said McKee.

The EU wants smokers to quit

The EU wants to create a “Tobacco-Free Generation” by 2040, where less than 5 percent of the population smokes. This is a cornerstone of Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan. But Brussels lacks the authority for a blanket ban on smoking, because health policy remains a sovereign right for states. Instead, the EU can use its fiscal and regulatory powers to dictate how tobacco is sold and promoted around the bloc.

Over the past decade, it implemented several landmark laws. The 2014 Tobacco Products Directive (TPD II) mandated graphic warnings covering 65 percent of packages and capped e-cigarette nicotine concentration at 20 mg/ml. The Tobacco Advertising Directive (2003) banned tobacco advertising, and the 2001/37/EC Directive completely banned misleading product descriptors like "light," "mild," or "low tar", forcing manufacturers to write bold, black-and-white health warnings on all cigarette packs.

The Tobacco Control Framework Evaluation found these measures successful at lowering traditional smoking rates, which fell from 28 percent to 24 percent among adults. However, it warns that these older laws left gaping loopholes that allowed high-tech nicotine alternatives, like novel products, to thrive unregulated.

The new directive

The Commission's proposed revision of the Tobacco Taxation Directive wants to make tobacco and nicotine products significantly more expensive by raising minimum duties across the EU. For example, it targets a dramatic 139 percent increase in minimum excise duties for standard cigarettes, instantly driving up the baseline retail price.

It also establishes mandatory EU-wide minimum excise taxes on vapes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches for the first time, and includes raw tobacco leaf in the EU's electronic tracking system to shut down underground black markets and cross-border tax evasion.

The Commission presented the proposal in July 2025. In June 2026, however, the European Parliament rejected its own advisory report on the file after political groups from across the spectrum voted against a heavily amended compromise text. Because tax legislation follows the EU's special legislative procedure, Parliament's opinion is not binding. The proposal therefore remains under discussion in the Council of the European Union, where unanimous approval from all 27 member states is required before it can become law.

"Many people think the European Parliament is deciding the future excise tax rates. We're not. We're giving an opinion that is not legally binding on the Council”, said Patriots for Europe MEP Tomas Kubin, the report’s rapporteur.

Although the Parliament failed to adopt a formal position, the legislative process continues because taxation is decided by the Council under the EU's consultation procedure.

In parallel, countries are implementing national bans within their own borders. Belgium became the first EU nation to outlaw the sale of disposable electronic cigarettes. France followed by passing its own single-usevape ban, alongside strict legislation that outlaws smoking in public parks, beaches, and school areas. The Netherlands has enforced one of Europe's toughest flavour bans by completely prohibiting every vape liquid except for basic tobacco profiles, while simultaneously drafting laws to raise the legal nicotine purchase age from 18 to 21.

What could change if the directive is adopted

If adopted, the revised directive would place huge pressure on tobacco companies by targeting their profits. The industry remains an economic giant in Europe, with total annual sales reaching approximately €130 billion across the bloc. Companies like Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco would face a direct threat to their business models as the EU introduces these new minimum taxes.

Logistically, manufacturers will no longer be able to use novel products as low-tax loopholes to offset declining traditional cigarette revenues. Furthermore, including raw tobacco into the EU's electronic tracking system will force companies to comply with strict supply chain audits, increasing their administrative and operational costs.

If the proposal is ultimately approved by all member states, European consumers would see significant changes in both the pricing and availability of nicotine products.

Public space restrictions are also tightening across several member states through separate national legislation. Belgium, France and the Netherlands have already introduced stricter rules on vaping and smoking in public places. If the revised TTD is eventually adopted, smokers across the EU would also face significantly higher prices for cigarettes and many alternative nicotine products.


Is nicotine a good pesticide?


Is Nicotine a Good Pesticide? Exploring Its Efficacy and Risks

Is nicotine a good pesticide? The answer is complex: while nicotine was an effective early pesticide, its high toxicity to humans and other non-target organisms has largely relegated it to niche applications or historical interest, making it generally not recommended as a good pesticide in modern agriculture

A Historical Look at Nicotine as a Pesticide

Nicotine, derived from the tobacco plant, Nicotiana tabacum, was one of the first widely used insecticides. Its insecticidal properties were recognized centuries ago, and it became commercially available in the late 19th century. Before the advent of synthetic pesticides like DDT, nicotine filled a crucial role in crop protection. Its natural origin and relatively rapid breakdown compared to later synthetic options were initially seen as advantages. However, understanding its limitations and significant risks is essential.

How Nicotine Acts as a Pesticide

Nicotine is a potent neurotoxin. It works by mimicking acetylcholine, a neurotransmitter critical for nerve function in insects. When an insect is exposed to nicotine, the substance binds to acetylcholine receptors in the insect’s nervous system. This disrupts normal nerve impulses, causing overstimulation, paralysis, and ultimately, death. This mode of action is similar to that of some modern neonicotinoid insecticides, although with a far less targeted approach and much higher risk.

Forms and Application Methods

Nicotine-based pesticides were traditionally available in several forms, including:

  • Nicotine sulfate: This was a common salt form of nicotine used in sprays.
  • Nicotine alkaloid: The pure alkaloid form, often mixed with soap or other surfactants to improve its effectiveness.
  • Dust formulations: Nicotine mixed with inert carriers for dusting directly onto plants.

Application methods varied depending on the crop and the target pest:

  • Spraying: The most common method, involving the application of a nicotine solution to foliage.
  • Fumigation: Used in enclosed spaces like greenhouses to control pests in the air.
  • Soil application: Less common, but sometimes used to control soil-borne pests.

The Dark Side: Risks and Drawbacks

While effective against many pests, nicotine’s high toxicity presents significant risks:

  • High Toxicity to Humans: Nicotine is acutely toxic to humans through inhalation, ingestion, and skin absorption. Symptoms of nicotine poisoning include nausea, vomiting, seizures, and respiratory failure.
  • Non-Target Effects: Nicotine is toxic to beneficial insects like bees and ladybugs, disrupting ecological balance.
  • Environmental Persistence: While nicotine degrades relatively quickly compared to some synthetic pesticides, its breakdown products can still persist in the environment and pose risks.
  • Pest Resistance: Some insect populations have developed resistance to nicotine, reducing its effectiveness over time.
  • Regulation and Availability: Due to its toxicity, nicotine-based pesticides are heavily regulated or banned in many countries.

Modern Alternatives

Given the risks associated with nicotine, safer and more effective alternatives are widely available. These include:

  • Synthetic Pyrethroids: These are synthetic versions of naturally occurring insecticides derived from chrysanthemums.
  • Neonicotinoids: A class of insecticides that act on the insect nervous system, similar to nicotine but with (ideally) more targeted action, although their environmental impacts are also of concern.
  • Biological Controls: Using natural predators, parasites, or pathogens to control pests.
  • Insecticidal Soaps and Oils: These are less toxic alternatives that work by suffocating insects.
  • Integrated Pest Management (IPM): A comprehensive approach that combines various pest control methods to minimize pesticide use.

Comparing Nicotine to Modern Pesticides

FeatureNicotineModern Synthetic PesticidesBiological Controls
ToxicityHighVariesLow
SelectivityLowModerate to HighHigh
PersistenceModerateVariesLow
ResistanceHighModerateLow
Environmental ImpactHighVariesLow
CostLow (Historically)ModerateModerate to High
EffectivenessModerateHighVaries

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

What is nicotine’s toxicity level compared to other pesticides?

Nicotine is considered highly toxic compared to many modern synthetic pesticides and especially biological controls. Its LD50 (lethal dose, 50%) is significantly lower, meaning it takes a smaller amount of nicotine to cause death.

Is nicotine allowed for use as a pesticide in organic farming?

Generally, no, nicotine is not permitted for use in certified organic agriculture in most countries. Organic farming emphasizes natural and sustainable pest control methods, and nicotine’s toxicity goes against those principles.

Can I extract nicotine from tobacco for use in my garden?

While technically possible, it is strongly discouraged. Extracting nicotine without proper equipment and expertise can be extremely dangerous, and homemade nicotine solutions can be highly unpredictable in terms of concentration and effectiveness, posing a significant risk to yourself and the environment. Furthermore, such use may be illegal.

What are the symptoms of nicotine poisoning in humans?

Symptoms of nicotine poisoning can range from mild to severe, depending on the dose. Mild symptoms include nausea, vomiting, dizziness, and increased heart rate. Severe symptoms can include seizures, respiratory failure, and even death. Immediate medical attention is crucial if nicotine poisoning is suspected.

Does nicotine only affect insects?

No, nicotine is toxic to a wide range of organisms, including humans, mammals, birds, amphibians, and aquatic invertebrates. Its lack of selectivity is a major drawback compared to more targeted pesticides.

How quickly does nicotine break down in the environment?

Nicotine degrades relatively quickly compared to some synthetic pesticides, with a half-life in soil ranging from a few days to a few weeks, depending on environmental conditions like temperature and moisture. However, its breakdown products can still pose risks. Care must still be taken to minimize environmental exposure.

Are there any situations where nicotine might still be a preferable pesticide?

In very limited circumstances, such as research settings where controlled experiments are conducted and stringent safety precautions are in place, nicotine might be used. However, safer alternatives are almost always available, making nicotine a last resort even in these situations.

How does nicotine compare to neonicotinoids in terms of environmental impact?

While both are neurotoxic insecticides, neonicotinoids are generally considered to have a lower acute toxicity to mammals compared to nicotine. However, neonicotinoids have been linked to significant negative impacts on bee populations and other non-target insects, leading to restrictions on their use in many regions. The environmental impact of both is a serious concern.

Can nicotine-resistant pests become resistant to other pesticides?

Resistance mechanisms can sometimes be cross-resistant, meaning that pests resistant to nicotine might also be resistant to other insecticides with similar modes of action. This underscores the importance of rotating different classes of pesticides and employing IPM strategies to prevent resistance development. Careful planning and varied methods are key.

What is Integrated Pest Management (IPM), and how does it relate to the use of nicotine?

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) is a holistic approach to pest control that emphasizes prevention, monitoring, and the use of multiple control methods in a way that minimizes environmental risks. The use of nicotine is generally incompatible with IPM principles due to its high toxicity and non-selectivity.

Is it legal to sell tobacco dust as a pesticide?

The legality of selling tobacco dust as a pesticide varies depending on local regulations. In many regions, it is illegal to sell unregistered pesticides, including tobacco dust. Even if it is legal, it is generally not recommended due to the risks associated with nicotine exposure.

What are some safer alternatives to nicotine for controlling aphids?

Safer alternatives for aphid control include insecticidal soaps, horticultural oils, introducing natural predators like ladybugs, and using strong jets of water to dislodge aphids from plants. These methods are generally much safer for humans, beneficial insects, and the environment.



 

FIFA confirms COO Kevin Lamour has left after criticising Infantino's World Cup plans

FIFA's headquarters are in Zurich, Switzerland.
Copyright AP Photo

By Simon Ormiston
Published on

The senior FIFA executive had warned speaking out against Infantino's controversial investment plan could cost him his job.

FIFA's chief operating officer Kevin Lamour has left his role less than three weeks after publicly attacking Gianni Infantino's plan to bring private investors into world football's biggest competitions

FIFA confirmed Lamour's employment ended on 17 August but did not give a reason for his departure. Some media outlets are claiming he had been sacked.

"FIFA thanks Kevin for his two years of service and wishes him the best of luck for the future," a FIFA spokesperson told AFP, confirming "the working relationship between FIFA and Kevin Lamour as FIFA's chief operating officer has ended".

Lamour had been one of FIFA's most senior executives since joining from European governing body UEFA in November 2024. His responsibilities included overseeing finance, legal and compliance, communications, member associations, technology and operations and social responsibility across FIFA's offices in Zurich, Paris and Miami.

But he publicly broke with Infantino over the proposed FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE), a new commercial subsidiary to be valued at around $20 billion (€17bn) to run its major tournaments - including the World Cup - and allow private investors to acquire a 20% stake.

Lamour accused FIFA's administration of being "deceived" over how the proposal was developed and described FFE as "the project of one person".

"Not only must this project not go ahead … but the time has now come for football political leaders to ask themselves the right questions and make the right decisions."

"If that means I lose my job, then so be it," Lamour said in a statement on July 31.

His departure follows the resignation of Infantino's senior adviser Carlos Cordeiro last month, a former US Soccer president and Goldman Sachs executive.

Cordeiro said he had not been involved in developing FFE and described the proposal as "a bad deal for football", questioning why FIFA needed to raise billions from outside investors when it had significant reserves and no debt.

Infantino subsequently abandoned FFE following widespread opposition when three regional football governing bodies – UEFA (Europe), CONCACAF (North and Central America and Caribbean) and the AFC (Asia) – said his plan was a "fundamental breach of trust" with the institutions the body was designed to serve.

FIFA released a statement on 8 August in which it said, "It is increasingly evident that there is a concerted and ongoing effort by some to undermine FIFA and its President."

 

Porcupines spread near Warsaw: 'It tasted some garden plants and got into the house'

How did these exotic animals end up in Poland?

A porcupine looks down from a tree in Ricketts Glen State Park, Monday, 19 May 2014, in Benton, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Citizens' Voice, Andrew Krech)
Copyright Copyright 2014 AP. All rights reserved.

By Katarzyna Kubacka
Published on

Porcupines have appeared in Mazovia and are increasingly visiting gardens and even homes. Authorities are searching for more and urging caution. How did these exotic animals end up in Poland?

The Leoncin commune, east-central Poland on 14 August reported an unusual visitor in the garden of one of the houses.

According to the account, the property owners alerted the authorities to a porcupine that first "sampled the garden plants", and as the owner was reporting its presence, "managed to get into the house".

The latest incident follows that of 11 August in Łomianki, where the first porcupine was caught and another was found in the Mazovian region. Both animals were placed under the care of a vet, who confirmed that they are healthy.

Search continues for the Bemowo porcupine

The "Kopytka z nadzieją" foundation, which cares for wild and farm animals, told local TV, TVP3 Warszawa that a total of three animals are at large. They most likely all escaped from the same owner.

According to various reports, in recent days porcupines have also been seen in Warsaw, the Polish capital itself. As the foundation reported on 15 August, searches are under way for the animal most recently spotted in Warsaw’s Bemowo district, 2–3 km from Fort Bema. So far there has been no information that it has been found.

The foundation is urging people to check "residential courtyards, green areas and places where the animal might try to find shelter".

Porcupines are large rodents, best known for their distinctive long quills. They are found mainly in Africa and Asia, where they use them to defend themselves against predators. They do not occur naturally in the wild in Poland, although some are kept by people.

The porcupines that have appeared around Warsaw most probably escaped from a private breeder, experts say.

Do not try to catch the porcupine

Some have been seen in the vicinity of the Kampinos Forest. The Kampinos National Park reported the appearance of such an animal last year as well. At the same time Vietnamese pigs also appeared in the area.

Both the "Kopytka z nadzieją" foundation and the Kampinos National Park are calling on people not to attempt to catch a porcupine encountered in the wild on their own. When it feels threatened the animal may defend itself, and its quills can pose a serious danger to both humans and dogs.

If we see a porcupine, we should, from a safe distance, watch which direction it is moving in, take a photo and send the foundation the exact location or a map pin according to a statement from the foundation which also announced its phone number: 883 720 000.

More and more wild animals at large

The presence of exotic animals on Polish territory is most often linked to private breeding. Experts point out that animals frequently escape from such facilities because of unsuitable conditions or because they are not adapted to life in captivity.

There are also cases where they are released by former owners who no longer want to or cannot look after them.

Experts also highlight the growing demand in Europe for exotic animals kept by private owners, often in conditions that do not support their welfare. At the same time environmental groups are calling for tighter regulations and better protection of wild species.

 


How Cyprus became one of Europe's biggest video game hubs

file photo
Copyright AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey


By Ioannis Karagiorgas
Published on

A small Mediterranean island now ranks among Europe's top 10 gaming markets by revenue — and third in the world for mobile downloads, behind only China and Vietnam.

Cyprus has developed into a much larger international hub for video game development and publishing than its size would suggest, according to the Cyprus Video Game Industry Report 2025, presented by the Cyprus Game Makers Association (CYGMA).

The report describes an ecosystem of more than 400 companies, generating around €3.2 billion in annual revenue from players worldwide. It represents a significant contribution to the Cypriot economy and an exceptionally strong international presence, particularly in mobile gaming.

The global games industry: A $263.7bn market

The global video games market is estimated at $263.7 billion (€228bn) for 2025, marking year-on-year growth of around 4%, according to the report.

Video games are now the world's largest entertainment industry. Their revenues exceed those of on-demand video, cinema and recorded music combined, it notes.

The Cypriot industry grew largely on the back of mobile gaming, at precisely the moment the smartphone was turning video games into a mass, global product.

Mobile overtook consoles around 2015 and by 2018 had already surpassed PC and console combined. At the same time, the free-to-play model — free installation, with monetisation built into the game — became dominant.

The report also highlights the growing dominance of Asian, and in particular Chinese, companies in mobile gaming, a shift among some developers back towards premium PC gaming, and an increased focus on profitability following the layoffs and overexpansion seen during the pandemic period.

file photo AP Photo/Martin Meissner

The European dimension

The report does not give a single figure for the total value of the European video games market in 2025, comparable to the $263.7 billion it gives for the global market.

It does, however, offer extensive data on Europe's production ecosystem, and on Cyprus's place within it.

The European industry includes around 6,000 studios and publishers, while Cyprus alone has around 415 confirmed gaming companies.

In terms of company numbers, Cyprus accounts for about 7% of the European total used as a benchmark in the report — an exceptionally high share for a country of roughly 1 million inhabitants.

Growth has been just as striking. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of Cypriot games companies rose from 169 to 393, an increase of 133%, equivalent to average annual growth of around 18%.

CYGMA also ranks Cyprus among the 10 largest countries in Europe's video games industry by revenue. This is perhaps the most significant element of the country's European standing: it is not simply a case of high per capita performance, but a substantive place in Europe's top 10 in absolute terms too.

file photo AP/Ted Shaffrey

The Cypriot 'paradox': One million people, €3.2bn in revenue

The report's central argument is that Cyprus should no longer be seen as an "emerging" destination for game development, but as an already established international hub.

In 2025, around 415 video game companies are based in Cyprus, with more than €3.2 billion in total revenues. CYGMA's database includes 431 companies in total, of which 415 have been cross-checked against the Registrar of Companies.

Crucially, this €3.2 billion does not mainly reflect video game consumption by Cypriot players.

Quite the opposite: almost none of the industry's output relies on the domestic market. The sector is by nature export-oriented — the report describes games as around 99% exportable — and the small size of the domestic market could never sustain an industry of this scale.

Cyprus is therefore used as a base for the creation, development, publishing, management and monetisation of digital products sold to a global audience.

The report puts revenue per capita at around €3,200, compared with €509 in Finland, €51 in Spain and €32 in Serbia. In terms of gaming companies per million inhabitants, Cyprus reaches 415, compared with 48 in Finland, 17 in Spain and 15 in Serbia.

Mobile gaming: Cyprus's main strength

The most important pillar is mobile. In 2025, Cypriot companies released 571 new mobile games, which amassed 615 million downloads, while the industry's total mobile gaming revenues are estimated at around €1.8 billion.

file photo AP Photo/Peter Morgan

Cyprus ranks third worldwide in mobile game downloads, behind only China and Vietnam, and 11th worldwide in mobile in-app purchase revenue.

In downloads, it is ahead of the US, France, Israel, Turkey, Singapore, India, South Korea and Japan.

PC and consoles: The second pillar

The Cypriot industry is not limited to mobile. Games for PC and consoles generate around €1.4 billion a year.

In 2025, 36 new PC and console games were released, with around 1.5 million copies sold. Of the total €1.4 billion, around €200 million can be tracked via Steam.

file photo AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Why Cyprus?

The report attributes the growth of Cyprus's video games industry both to the global rise of mobile gaming and to advantages specific to the country.

The rapid growth of mobile games created thousands of new companies worldwide, and Cyprus managed to attract many of them, largely thanks to the IP Box, a tax regime offering lower taxation on profits derived from intellectual property such as software, code and other components of a video game.

Under the tax system outlined in the report, from 1 January 2026 profits that qualify for the IP Box can be taxed at an effective rate of around 3%, since only 20% of the relevant profits are subject to tax.

file photo AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey

Companies can also benefit from greater tax deductions for research and development spending, such as the creation of new software, technology and games, alongside tax incentives for executives relocating to Cyprus from abroad.

Beyond tax incentives, Cyprus offers other advantages: EU membership, a legal system largely based on English law, tax agreements with many countries, and a strategic location between Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

The report does point to one weakness, however. Unlike countries such as Germany and the UK, Cyprus does not yet have a well-developed system of state grants specifically for the video games industry. While the country remains competitive on tax and company formation, there is still room to offer more direct financial support to games companies and creators.

The biggest challenge: Human capital

Perhaps the biggest obstacle to the next phase of growth is neither taxation nor funding, but the talent pool.

Cyprus has 13 universities and almost 58,000 students, but relatively few study disciplines directly related to video game creation.

According to the report, around 290-385 people are expected to graduate in 2026 from degree programmes usable in the games industry, such as programming and design.

However, only 3-6 graduates are expected to come from degree programmes specifically focused on video games.

The sector could, according to the report's estimates, absorb around 100-300 new employees a year — leaving a substantial gap between companies' needs and the number of suitably trained people available in Cyprus.

Three Sensors, One Witness: The Corroboration Trap In Allied Intelligence – Analysis


Credit: NATO


August 18, 2026
By Burak Oktenli


Key Takeaways

NATO’s drive toward interoperable, data-rich intelligence fusion (Digital Backbone, Alliance Data Sharing Ecosystem, AI-enabled decision support) will accelerate coalition intelligence but risks creating false corroboration when multiple agreeing feeds inherit the same upstream error or source.

Shared dependencies—such as common timing/position references (e.g., GNSS), commercial imagery, software/model families, or open-source material—can make several channels look independent while actually reflecting a single observation or defect, a problem illustrated historically by the Curveball biological-weapons reporting.

Mitigations include requiring evidence pedigree/provenance metadata, discounting agreement among related feeds in confidence scores, red-teaming manufactured consensus, and reporting an “effective independent evidence count” alongside the nominal number of feeds so that interoperability strengthens rather than inflates certainty.


NATO’s push toward interoperable, data-driven warfare will make coalition intelligence faster. It also makes source lineage a strategic requirement, because several agreeing feeds can still inherit the same error.

One of the most consequential intelligence failures of this century contains a warning that looks increasingly relevant to machine-speed warfare. In the run-up to the Iraq war, reporting from the Iraqi defector codenamed Curveball became central to claims about mobile biological-weapons laboratories. After the war, the U.S. WMD Commission found that the Intelligence Community had relied heavily on a source who proved unreliable and warned about a broader problem: when intelligence services share reporting without enough sourcing detail, several services can unknowingly rely on the same underlying source and create false corroboration.

One voice can return through several channels looking like a chorus.


Two decades later, NATO is building the kind of data-rich integration a modern alliance needs. Its 2026 Digital Transformation Implementation Strategy calls for a Digital Backbone connecting sensors, decision-makers, actors, and effectors across national and organizational boundaries, alongside an Alliance Data Sharing Ecosystem for interoperable data that includes intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. NATO’s Alliance Digital Strategy also envisions cross-domain fusion of sensor data with predictive analytics and AI-enabled decision support.

That direction is strategically sensible. But it creates a statistical side effect that deserves more attention: interoperability can make systems more connected without making their errors more independent.

Imagine three allied feeds that agree on the same contact. One comes from a radar track, one from an AI-generated intelligence product, and one from a partner’s fused picture. They may look like three witnesses. But if all three depend on the same timing source, the same upstream commercial image, the same correction product, or the same software family, part of their agreement is inherited. A confidence system that counts the feeds without tracing the shared ancestry will price an echo as evidence.


GNSS interference makes the problem concrete. EASA reports a notable increase in jamming and spoofing since 2022, particularly around the Mediterranean, Black Sea, Middle East, Baltic Sea, Arctic, and other sensitive areas. This is normally discussed as a navigation and aviation problem. For allied intelligence it is also a fusion lesson. If several sensors, platforms, or analytic products inherit time or position from the same degraded reference, their errors can move together. Agreement downstream does not prove that the upstream reference was right.

The same logic applies to open-source and commercial intelligence. One video can be downloaded, cropped, reposted, translated, and summarized by dozens of accounts. One satellite image can appear in several analytic products. One database can feed several models. If an automated pipeline counts products rather than origins, it can turn one observation into a crowd. AI can accelerate the problem because two models built on overlapping data or a common model family may fail in similar ways even when their output arrives through different interfaces.

Sensor-fusion mathematics has understood this problem for decades. Work on common process noise showed that shared errors change the covariance of a fused estimate, and covariance-intersection methods were developed for cases in which cross-correlations are unknown. The missing discipline is therefore not a new theorem. It is carrying dependence information into the operational confidence score.


A simple statistical example shows why this matters. In the standard equal-correlation model, 24 channels with a common correlation of 0.5 contain only about 1.9 independent channels’ worth of information about a shared quantity. The hardware count is still 24. The evidence count is not. More channels can add redundancy without adding independent corroboration.

Allied intelligence systems should therefore treat evidence ancestry as part of the measurement itself.

First, map the pedigree. A fused feed should retain identifiers for its upstream observation, timing source, calibration reference, correction product, software or model version, and major processing steps. This does not require inventing a new metadata language. Standards such as the W3C PROV data model already provide a general vocabulary for recording entities, activities, and provenance. Coalition-specific implementations can add the security and uncertainty fields that military use requires.

Second, discount agreement between relatives. Two feeds that share a decisive ancestor should increase confidence by less than two genuinely independent feeds. The consumer should be shown not only how many channels contributed, but how much independent evidence the dependence model says those channels represent. Ten reports and ten independent witnesses are different claims.

Third, red-team manufactured consensus. Exercises should not only ask whether an adversary can blind one sensor. They should test whether a disturbance or false input at a shared layer can make many downstream systems agree on the same wrong answer. A common timing error, duplicated upstream observation, shared software defect, or one narrative propagated through many open-source channels should be treated as an attack on corroboration itself.

This is especially important for alliances because interoperability is both a strength and a source of common ancestry. Allies standardize interfaces, share data, use common reference services, and increasingly connect national and commercial systems into federated architectures. None of that is a mistake. The mistake would be assuming that every additional national flag on a data feed creates another independent error lineage.

There is a useful positive contrast. The MH17 Joint Investigation Team examined different classes of evidence, including wreckage and forensic material, intercepted communications, photos and videos, radar information, and witness statements. The strength of such an investigation comes from being able to validate how different evidence was obtained and how the pieces relate, not from counting multiple copies of the same report.

The same standard should apply to machine-speed coalition intelligence: independence must be defensible, not presumed.


NATO does not need less interoperability. It needs fusion systems whose confidence calculations understand what interoperability causes different feeds to share. Procurement can require provenance data. Coalition exercises can test common-mode failure. Intelligence products can report an effective evidence count beside the nominal feed count. AI systems can be prevented from converting duplicated inputs into manufactured certainty.

The next major intelligence failure may not come from having too little data. It may come from counting the same evidence twice, at machine speed, and calling the result high confidence.



About Burak Oktenli
Burak Oktenli holds an MBA and a Master of Professional Studies in Applied Intelligence from Georgetown University. His research addresses the governance of authority in autonomous and AI-enabled systems, and his writing has appeared at the Modern War Institute at West Point, RUSI, RealClearDefense, RealClearMarkets, and Geopolitical Monitor. He is the author of Authority Architectures for Autonomous Systems, a ten-volume series on how authority in autonomous systems is delegated, monitored and recovered, at authority-architecture.me.