Friday, August 21, 2026

 

Robotic assisted knee replacement gives the same patient outcomes as a surgeon only procedure



Robot-assisted knee replacement surgery is more precise than a surgeon on their own, but does not currently lead to improvements in patient outcomes





University of Warwick

Mako Robotic System in Use 

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Mako robotic system in use. Credit: UHCW NHS Trust

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Credit: UHCW NHS Trust





Robot-assisted knee replacement surgery is more precise than a surgeon on their own, but does not currently lead to improvements in patient outcomes, according to the RACER-Knee trial, the world's largest clinical study of its kind. This trial makes an important contribution to the evidence on robotics in health care and where future advances and research should focus. The trial, coordinated by the University of Warwick and University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire (UHCW) NHS Trust, is published in The Lancet, the world's oldest and best-known general medical journal.

Robotic assistance is increasingly used in knee replacement surgery worldwide, in six per cent of procedures in the UK, compared with 16 per cent in the US and 42 per cent in Australia, with the aim of helping surgeons place the knee replacement more precisely and tailoring surgery to a patient’s anatomy.

The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) funded the UK-wide RACER-Knee trial in partnership with Stryker, who make the robot that was tested. It was led by the Warwick Clinical Trials Unit, UHCW NHS Trust and the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital in Birmingham. It is the world's largest double-blinded randomised control trial comparing conventional total knee replacement to surgery assisted with the Stryker Mako robotic system, the most widely used system globally.

The trial found that one year after surgery, patients in both groups had similar recovery, mobility and pain levels. While robotic assistance was more precise, it did not translate into improvements in patient outcomes within the first year after knee replacement. The trial also found that robot-assisted knee replacement was not linked to an increased risk of serious adverse events, suggesting it was as safe as the usual approach to surgery.

The study was led between two Chief Investigators in the UK, they said:

Professor Andrew Metcalfe, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, and Consultant Orthopaedic Surgeon at UHCW NHS Trust: “We are delighted to have completed this world-leading randomised trial of an exciting technology that is now being used globally and at scale. It is an important step in the process of innovation and will stimulate lots more high-quality studies. We are very grateful for the support of the many patients who took part which is so important, but also the NIHR and Stryker for working so well together to support this critical study. Technology such as this could really help the care we give for patients, but for robotic-assisted knee replacements, there is still work to do before we see benefits such as less pain or better movement.”

Professor Edward Davis, Consultant orthopaedic surgeon at The Royal Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and Honorary Professor at University of Birmingham: “The trial demonstrates robotic-arm-assistance allows for higher precision, and in theory the system should allow surgeons to customise the procedure according to a patient’s anatomy. These results are by no means a condemnation of the robotic systems, but more understanding of the ideal position for a knee replacement and personalisation for each patient is needed. We’ll then be able to truly take advantage of the advanced precision of robotic systems. “

Professor Anthony Gordon, Director for the NIHR Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, said: “Innovation in healthcare depends on evaluating promising technologies rigorously and at scale. While this study shows robotic-assisted knee replacement is not yet improving patient outcomes, it highlights opportunities to refine these technologies and harness their precision to deliver better care in the future. The NIHR continues to fund robust studies, such as RACER, ensuring we learn how to deliver the latest technologies most effectively within the NHS.”

Total knee replacement is one of the most common elective operations worldwide for treating knee arthritis. Conventionally, surgeons rely on their experience and a standard set of instruments to perform the procedure. Some surgeons now use a robotic arm, controlled by the surgeon, to assist in the operation. The system positions instruments with high precision and gives surgeons greater flexibility to vary cutting angles and depths, enabling personalised approaches tailored to individual patient’s anatomy in ways conventional surgery cannot achieve.

339 patients from 10 hospitals, under the care of 33 surgeons across the UK, took part in the trial.  Despite the potential advantages of robotics, the trial found that there was no meaningful difference in the primary measure, the Forgotten Joint Score, 12 months after the operation. The score measures the extent to which patients are aware of their artificial joints during daily activities, and patients showed equal results with their artificial joints, whichever method was used for doing the replacement. Patients also showed comparable outcomes in their ability to walk, their experience of pain in the first three months and at 12 months, their pain in hospital, and the likelihood of a follow-up operation.

The researchers will continue to follow-up patients for ten years to find out if there are any long-term differences between the two approaches.  Importantly this might find out if there is a difference in number or patients needing more surgery for their knee.

Robotic TKRs took longer to perform (on average 10.5 minutes) and were around £950 more expensive on average, but were more precise and were not associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events, suggesting the robotic procedure was as safe as conventional surgery. Under current NHS cost limits, the robotic system tested in this trial was not cost-effective over the first year after surgery.

In the future, if the use of robotic assistance could help surgeons to better tailor to each patient's individual anatomy, then the robotic system's better precision could become worthwhile. This would need more development and further research but is an exciting area for future studies.

ENDS

The results of the RACER-Knee trial have published in The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00986-4 

Notes to Editors

For more information please contact:

Matt Higgs, PhD | Media & Communications Manager (Warwick Press Office)

Email: Matt.Higgs@warwick.ac.uk | Phone: +44(0)7880 175403

About the Trial

This research has been organised by University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust, and the University of Warwick. It has been funded by the UK NHS research body, the National Institute for Health Research, through its Health Technology Assessment Programme (NIHR128768)

Stryker, the manufacturers of the robotic system, met the additional costs of doing robotic surgery within this study. They were not involved in the analysis or interpretation of the study findings.

About the University of Warwick

Founded in 1965, the University of Warwick is a world-leading institution known for its commitment to era-defining innovation across research and education. A connected ecosystem of staff, students and alumni, the University fosters transformative learning, interdisciplinary collaboration, and bold industry partnerships across state-of-the-art facilities in the UK and global satellite hubs. Here, spirited thinkers push boundaries, experiment, and challenge convention to create a better world.

About University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust

University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust (UHCW) are one of the largest acute teaching Trusts in the UK, comprising University Hospital in Coventry and the Hospital of St Cross in Rugby and working in partnership with Warwick University Medical School and Coventry University. It has more than 11,000 staff and delivers services across the West Midlands region. This includes hosting region-wide services such as the Coventry and Warwickshire Pathology Network and Bowel Cancer Screening programme. The Trust works closely with its partners in health and social care in Coventry and Warwickshire to develop patient-focused services that meet the needs of our communities.

About the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust

The Royal Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust is one of the largest specialist orthopaedic units in Europe, offering planned orthopaedic surgery to people locally, nationally, and internationally. The Trust is an accredited Veteran Aware organisation and a Disability Confident Leader.  A national centre for bone cancer and musculoskeletal medicine, the Royal Orthopaedic Hospital has a vibrant research portfolio of clinical trials, observational studies and laboratory studies exploring new treatment options, new approaches in rehabilitation and therapy, and new medical devices. This research is delivered by our researchers and clinicians spread across the Knowledge Hub, our home for education and research, and the Dubrowsky Regenerative Medicine Laboratory.

About NIHR

The mission of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) is to improve the health and wealth of the nation through research. The mission of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) is to improve the health and wealth of the nation through research. 

We do this by:

  • funding high quality, timely research that benefits the NHS, public health and social care
  • investing in world-class expertise, facilities and a skilled delivery workforce to translate discoveries into improved treatments and services
  • partnering with patients, service users, carers and communities, improving the relevance, quality and impact of our research
  • attracting, training and supporting the best researchers to tackle complex health and social care challenges
  • collaborating with other public funders, charities and industry to help shape a cohesive and globally competitive research system
  • funding applied global health research and training to meet the needs of the poorest people in low- and middle-income countries

NIHR is funded by the Department of Health and Social Care. 

Our work in low- and middle-income countries is principally funded through UK international development funding from the UK government.

 

Breaking up of swan families in winter disrupts spring migration





Universiteit van Amsterdam

First Northward Migration of Juveniles in 2022 that Became Orphaned during Midwinter, Compared to Juveniles with No Indication of Altered Family Status 

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First northward migration of juveniles in 2022 that became orphaned during midwinter (red, n = 10) compared to juveniles with no indication of altered family status (reference group; blue, n = 14). a) migration tracks; b) migratory progress, measured as the distance (km) from the Ouse Washes in the United Kingdom (the location farthest from the breeding grounds reached by any of the birds); dashed transect lines in a indicate 1,000 km progress intervals for comparison. Circles indicate final track locations for individuals that subsequently died in the northern part of the range (four orphans and two from reference group); crosses indicate recorded deaths (two orphans). c) date of crossing 12.5°E, used as a proxy for migration departure. Boxes indicate the inter quartile range (IQR), with the central line depicting the median and the whiskers extending to 1.5*IQR. Fig. created using RStudio (R Core Team 2023) and Inkscape.

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Credit: Hans Linssen, University of Amsterdam (Fig. created using RStudio (R Core Team 2023) and Inkscape)






Young Bewick's swans only survive their first spring migration if they stay with their parents long enough. If they lose their parents in winter, they leave later and are unable to keep up with the rest of the population. As a result, there is a greater chance that they will die in their first year of life. This is shown in new research by biologists from the UvA and NIOO-KNAW, together with American and German colleagues, which was published on August 20 in the journal Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology.

Using GPS transmitters and DNA analysis, Hans Linssen and his colleagues analysed 55 swans – both adult and juvenile – from 12 entire swan families. This gave the researchers insight into family ties, how long families stayed together, and what happened when the bond was broken.

Bewick's swans breed on the Arctic tundra of European Russia, and in the autumn, they fly in family groups to the Netherlands and surrounding countries to spend the winter. Normally, the families stay together until at least halfway through the young's first spring migration back to the north, when the young are nearly one year old. For ten of the 24 young in the study, things turned out differently: they lost their parents during the winter following disturbances at roosting and feeding sites, primarily because hunters invaded a protected nature reserve important to the swans. On average, these orphaned swans departed for the spring migration nearly a month later than other juvenile swans and were much less likely to survive the following winter. The survival rate of the orphans dropped from 86 percent to 40 percent compared to young that stayed with their parents for the majority of the migration.

‘This poignantly shows that living and learning in a family group is not only useful for the young swans, but literally of vital importance,’ says Linssen.

Disappearing over Latvia
One orphaned swan did not leave northern Germany until April, following the same route as its peers but flying a considerable distance behind them. The last GPS signal was picked up over Latvia; after that, the swan disappeared from all records. For several young orphans, the transmitter signal was never picked up again, indicating that they did not survive the summer.

Linssen: ‘There is no telephone network in the swans’ breeding area. As a result, the GPS transmitters cannot send their locations for months. So, during that period, we do not know how the swans are doing. We only receive signals again when they migrate south in October and we regain coverage. Then we see which animals survived the summer. Unfortunately, for most of the orphaned young, such a signal failed to arrive.’

Orphan swan in a foster family
One of the young swans in the study, 036T, presented a more hopeful story. The swan’s mother was shot by hunters at their wintering grounds. In February, 036T left for Great Britain, where she joined another family. For two weeks, the young swan travelled with this family across British fields and later towards northern Germany, until the bond was broken in mid-March. On 26 March, 036T began the spring migration independently, somewhat on the late side. Then, in September, she met her biological father again in the Russian Arctic. They subsequently travelled south together for another week. Five years later, 036T is still alive.

Declining population
The findings are particularly concerning because the population of Bewick's swans in northwest Europe has been declining for years. Increased mortality among young birds can only exacerbate this decline. The study emphasises that protecting the birds is not just about nature reserves where they can live, but also about peace and quiet during the winter and the first spring migration. Linssen: 'It is crucial for young swans to be able to spend at least their first winter and spring migration with their family. Disturbances during that vulnerable period can have fatal consequences, so we must keep them to a minimum.'

About the Bewick's Swan
The Bewick's Swan is the smallest of three swan species found in the Netherlands and Belgium. Bewick's swans breed on the coast of European Russia and overwinter in northwest Europe. In the past, this was mainly in England and the Netherlands, but now it has largely shifted to northwest Germany. For migratory birds, timing is crucial: if they arrive too late at the breeding site, they miss the peak in food availability and their breeding success declines.

 

Iron hydride enters an exotic state of matter under Earth’s inner-core conditions



Experiments under extreme conditions reveal that iron hydride may become superionic, with hydrogen moving through a solid iron lattice



Institute of Science Tokyo

Time-Resolved X-ray Diffraction Reveals the Superionic State of Iron Hydride 

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Iron hydride was compressed in a laser-heated diamond-anvil cell and analyzed using synchrotron X-ray diffraction, revealing evidence of a superionic state.

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Credit: Institute of Science Tokyo





Earth's inner core, composed primarily of iron with a small percentage of light elements, may enter a superionic state at extreme pressure and temperature, according to experimental results from researchers at Science Tokyo. Using laser-heated and electrically wired diamond-anvil cells, the researchers identified experimental signatures of superionic iron hydride at conditions relevant to Earth’s core. These findings provide new insights into the composition and dynamics of Earth's deep interior.

Under the extreme pressures and temperatures in Earth's inner core, iron alloys containing light elements are predicted to enter an unusual state of matter known as the superionic state. In this state, iron atoms remain localized around their lattice sites, while lighter elements such as hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon move through the lattice almost like a liquid.

In addition to the rapid movement of light elements, the resulting shear softening of the alloy is also important in geoscience, as it may help explain why seismic shear waves travel more slowly through Earth’s inner core. However, this idea has so far been supported mainly by molecular dynamics simulations, with no direct experimental evidence.

Now, researchers from Institute of Science Tokyo (Science Tokyo), Japan, have obtained strong experimental indications suggesting that face-centered cubic (fcc) iron hydride (FeHX), a type of iron–light-element alloy, enters a superionic state under the high-pressure and high-temperature conditions found in Earth's inner core.

The study, made available online on June 09, 2026, and published in Volume 19, Issue 7 of the journal Nature Geoscience on July 01, 2026, was led by doctoral students Yoshihiro Nagaya and Yusuke Okazaki along with Professor Kenji Ohta from the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Science Tokyo.

"Because the superionic state of iron–light-element alloys exist only under ultrahigh-pressure and ultrahigh-temperature conditions, it had never previously been observed experimentally. FeHX is expected to adopt either a hexagonal close-packed or a fcc structure under inner-core conditions, depending on the hydrogen content," says Ohta.

The researchers used time-resolved synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements to monitor changes in the crystal lattice while subjecting fcc FeHX to high pressures and temperatures. They compressed tiny samples inside a diamond-anvil cell to pressures between 50 and 110 gigapascals and heated them to more than 2,000 Kelvin using lasers. By tracking changes in the crystal lattice, they calculated how the lattice volume changed as hydrogen was incorporated into the iron lattice.

The researchers found a characteristic λ-shaped anomaly in the material's thermal expansion coefficient near 1,590 Kelvin, a signature of phase transitions that has also been observed in other superionic materials. By mapping this transition under different pressures, they identified the boundary at which FeHX becomes superionic from normal solid. Extrapolating this boundary to Earth's inner-core pressure showed that the predicted transition temperature is well below the estimated inner-core temperature, suggesting that FeHX could exist in a superionic state inside Earth's inner core.

The researchers also performed time-resolved XRD measurements under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions while applying a constant voltage across the sample, revealing a sudden change in the hydrogen content of FeHX. After rapidly cooling the samples back to room temperature, a uniaxial hydrogen redistribution was observed, providing evidence that hydrogen became highly mobile in the superionic state. Based on the sample geometry and the applied constant bias, the researchers estimated the hydrogen mobility to be on the order of 1 µm2J⁻1s⁻1, corresponding to the diffusion coefficient of approximately 103 µm2s⁻1.

Although hydrogen became much more mobile upon entering the superionic state, the researchers found that its movement under Earth's inner-core conditions would remain extremely slow. Their estimation showed that hydrogen migration driven by Earth's geomagnetic field would result in only about 0.1 µm of movement over 10,000 years. At this rate, it would take more than 100 times Earth's age for hydrogen to travel a distance comparable to the inner core's radius of about 1,200 km. This suggests that hydrogen incorporated during Earth’s formation could remain trapped over geological timescales.

The findings could improve our understanding of the processes occurring in Earth’s core and refine models of how the core formed and evolved.

"These findings are expected to contribute to elucidating seismic-wave velocity anomalies in Earth's inner core and the evolution of Earth's interior," says Ohta

 

***

 

About Institute of Science Tokyo (Science Tokyo)
Institute of Science Tokyo (Science Tokyo) was established on October 1, 2024, following the merger between Tokyo Medical and Dental University (TMDU) and Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech), with the mission of “Advancing science and human wellbeing to create value for and with society.”


Reference
Title: Experimental indications of superionic behaviour in iron hydride under Earth’s core conditions
Journal: Nature Geoscience 
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-02001-5

 

Prevalence, trends, and outcomes of pregnant women with PCOS in Chinese mainland



Researchers investigate the epidemiological data on pregnant women with PCOS and the impact of China's fertility policies




Chinese Medical Journals Publishing House Co., Ltd.

The impact of the Universal Two-Child Policy on the prevalence of pregnant women with PCOS 

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In an interrupted-time-series analysis, the PCOS rate increased slightly before the Universal Two-Child Policy took effect (before June 2016; β=0.041; P=0.02); a higher increase was observed during the effective period (after June 2016; β=0.227; P<0.001).

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Credit: Chinese Medical Journal Image Source Link: https://www.ovid.com/jnls/cmj/fulltext/10.1097/cm9.0000000000004132~prevalence-trends-and-maternalfetal-outcomes-in-pregnant




Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects approximately 6% to 20% of women of reproductive age globally and remains undiagnosed and poorly managed, especially during pregnancy, leading to significant healthcare costs. The economic burden of PCOS was estimated to be $8 billion annually in 2020, with $375 million attributed to pregnancy-related complications. The implementation of China’s universal two-child policy has led to an increase in the proportion of advanced-age pregnant women, a greater use of assisted reproductive technologies, and a rise in multiple pregnancy rates, further exacerbating the health risks faced by women with PCOS. However, limited large-scale studies have investigated the prevalence and maternal-fetal outcomes in pregnant women with PCOS. In addition, the impact of China's evolving fertility policies on this population remains largely unclear.

To address this gap, a research team from West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, analyzed data from the Chinese Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System covering the period 2012 to 2021. A total of 14,083,975 pregnant women from 438 hospitals in 30 provinces were included, with samples covering urban and rural areas, as well as eastern, central, and western regions of China, ensuring good national representativeness. Interrupted-time-series analysis was applied to explore trends during the Universal Two-Child Policy period. Poisson regression analyses were used to estimate the maternal and fetal risks associated with PCOS. Subgroup analyses were also performed to identify high-risk populations. Their findings were made available online on June 25, 2026, and published in Volume 139, Issue13 of the Chinese Medical Journal on July 05, 2026.

“Our study, which covers a decade of data and a large, nationally representative sample, provides epidemiological data and the impact of China's fertility policies on pregnant women with PCOS in China,” explains the corresponding researcher from West China Second University Hospital. “The universal two-child policy has brought significant changes to China’s reproductive landscape, and our findings highlight the need to pay more attention to the health of pregnant women with PCOS.”

The study showed that the prevalence of PCOS among pregnant women in China increased from 0.79 per 10,000 in 2012 to 19.0 per 10,000 in 2021. Pregnant women with PCOS had significantly increased risks of several adverse maternal outcomes, including diabetes (adjusted relative risk [aRRs] 2.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.95–2.26), gestational hypertension (aRR 2.37, 95% CI 2.07–2.72), preeclampsia (aRR 2.29, 95% CI 2.04–2.57), superimposed preeclampsia (aRR 5.28, 95% CI 3.87–7.21), and HELLP syndrome (aRR 1.84, 95% CI 1.09–3.10). Additionally, women with PCOS had an increased risk of cesarean delivery (aRR 1.32, 95% CI 1.25–1.39). Regarding fetal outcomes, women with PCOS had elevated risks of abortion (aRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.20–2.30), preterm birth (aRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.63–1.99), full-term low birth weight babies (aRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.18–1.62), macrosomia (aRR 1.37, 95% CI 1.25–1.51), and neonatal asphyxia (aRR 1.72, 95% CI 1.32–2.24).

“PCOS is associated with a series of adverse maternal-fetal outcomes, especially among individuals with specific risk factors like advanced maternal age, inadequate antenatal care, nulliparity, and multiple pregnancy” notes a member of the research team. “These findings emphasize the need for targeted clinical intervention and offer valuable insights for improving healthcare strategies in this population.”

In conclusion, the prevalence of PCOS among pregnant women in China showed a significant upward trend from 2012 to 2021, with a long-term relative increase following the implementation of the universal two-child policy and significant regional variations. The study also confirmed that pregnant women with PCOS have significantly increased risks of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes, emphasizing the necessity of targeted clinical interventions for high-risk groups. These findings provide important references for improving obstetric management strategies for pregnant women with PCOS in China.

***

Reference

Title of original paper: Prevalence, trends, and maternal–fetal outcomes in pregnant women with polycystic ovary syndrome in Chinese mainland

Journal: Chinese Medical Journal

DOI: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000004132

 

About Rong Zhou and Juan Liang from West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University

Dr. Zhou Rong, is the Chief Physician and Professor at West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, is a provincial academic leader and outstanding expert in obstetrics. She holds numerous key positions in national and provincial medical societies. With over 30 years of clinical and research experience, she has led more than 50 major projects (including NSFC grants), published 100+ papers in journals such as Hypertension and The Lancet, authored 20+ books, contributed to 10+ clinical guidelines, and holds 5 patents.

 

Dr. Liang Juan is a Researcher and Doctoral Supervisor at West China Second University Hospital, Sichuan University, affiliated with the National Office for Maternal and Child Health Surveillance / China National Center for Birth Defect Monitoring. She leads national hospital-based surveillance for maternal deaths and severe maternal morbidity. She has directed multiple projects from national ministries, CMB, and WHO. Her honors include a First Prize of the Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Progress Award and a Second Prize of the Scientific and Technological Achievement Award from the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association.

 

Funding information
This study was supported by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province of China (Grant No. 2024NSFSC1672) and the Clinical Research Fund of West China Second Hospital, Sichuan University (Grant No. KL123). Dr. Rong Zhou has received research support from the National Key R&D Program of China (Grants Nos. 2021YFC 2701600 and 2021YFC2701601) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China

(Grant No. 81871175).

Climate change could triple the price of wheat



When drought strikes several of the world's major wheat-producing regions at the same time, wheat prices rise sharply



Aarhus University





Bread, pasta and breakfast cereals may seem far removed from dry fields in North America, Europe or Asia. Yet when water shortages hit several of the world's most important wheat-growing regions simultaneously, the consequences can be felt all the way to supermarket shelves and bakery aisles.

 

This is the conclusion of a new international study published in the journal Earth's Future. Researchers combined climate data, crop production areas and global commodity prices to investigate how drought affects wheat markets worldwide. The findings are striking: the extent of severe water scarcity alone can explain around 74 percent of annual fluctuations in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.

 

Among the co-authors is Professor and Head of Department Jørgen E. Olesen from the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University.

 

"We already know that climate change affects agricultural production. What is new here is that we can document a clear link between widespread drought across the globe and the prices faced by consumers and food markets," he says.

When multiple regions experience drought at the same time

The researchers developed a new indicator known as Severe Water Scarcity (SWS). It measures the proportion of global cropland experiencing drought during the months when crops are most sensitive to water shortages.

 

Rather than focusing solely on local drought conditions, the approach examines what happens when several major agricultural regions are affected simultaneously or in quick succession. These compound drought events are expected to become more common in a warmer climate.

 

One of the study's key findings is that wheat stands out from other crops. The relationship between water scarcity and price proved to be far stronger for wheat than for maize, while researchers found no comparable relationship for rice.

A price that rises with temperature

Historical data show that, on average, around five percent of the world's wheat-growing area has experienced severe water scarcity in any given year. However, this share has increased alongside climate change, and in particularly dry years such as 2000, 2010, 2012 and 2020, it exceeded 15 percent.

 

The research team then used climate models to explore how this trend may develop in the future. The study suggests that severe water scarcity will spread across larger portions of the world's wheat-growing regions as temperatures continue to rise.

 

At around two degrees of global warming, the model estimates an average wheat price of approximately USD 273 per tonne. At three degrees of warming, that figure rises to about USD 364 per tonne, roughly three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price recorded in 2010.

 

"Wheat is one of the world's most important food crops, which means climate-related production problems can quickly have global consequences. This study shows that we need to view drought as an international challenge rather than a series of isolated local events," says Jørgen E. Olesen.

More than an agricultural challenge

The researchers emphasise that drought is not the only factor influencing wheat prices. Energy and fertiliser costs, grain stocks, trade policies and geopolitical conflicts also play important roles. However, the study identifies a climate-driven factor that has previously been difficult to quantify and which already appears to be influencing global markets. That makes the findings relevant far beyond agriculture.

 

Wheat is one of the world's most important food crops and a staple food for billions of people. When drought affects several major production regions at the same time, the impact can ripple through international markets and affect countries and households far from the places where rainfall failed to arrive.

 

The study therefore suggests that future assessments of food security should not focus solely on gradual changes in crop yields. They should also account for major and recurring drought events that affect multiple key production regions simultaneously or within short periods of time.

More information

Collaborators: Global Change Research Institute CAS, Mendel University, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vrije Universiteit, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Georg August University, University of Potsdam, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Rothamsted Research, Johannes Gutenberg University, University of Cambridge, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA, Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University, and iCLIMATEInterdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change at Aarhus University.

 

Read more: The publication “Climate‐Induced Severe Water Scarcity Events asHarbingers of Global Wheat Price” is publiched in Earth's Future. It is written by: Miroslav Trnka, Jan Meitner, Jan Balek, Song Feng, Juliana Arbelaez Gaviria,Milan Fischer, Esther Boere, Petr Havlík, Kurt‐Christian Kersebaum, Claas Nendel, Margarita Ruiz‐Ramos, Daniela Semerádová, Mikhail A. Semenov, Markéta PodÄ›bradská, Jan Esper, Ulf Büntgen, Max Torbenson, Jáchym Brzezina, ZdenÄ›k Žalud, Gabriel Katul, and Jørgen E. Olesen.