The forward march of Farage halted?
JUNE 19, 2026
By Mark Perryman
Farage thrives on success, or at least the expectation of success.
This is the number one achievement of Makerfield: what seemed a racing certainty for Reform UK to win, or at least be a sufficiently close-run loss to be put down to the ‘Burnham effect’, has turned into a humiliating defeat.
It’s the third favourable by-election in a row Reform have fought and lost, and each to a different party: Plaid Cymru, the Greens and now Labour.
Or in the latter case, perhaps more accurately, to Andy Burnham.
There are few other Labour politicians who could have galvanised the campaign in the way Andy Burnham did. The question remains: could he have done it anywhere apart from Greater Manchester?
To which the answer might be: Keir Starmer couldn’t have done it anywhere.
Reform UK now face a four-way squeeze: a fast-recovering Tory party. a fast-emerging Restore Britain Party and an Andy Burnham-led Labour Party and government.
So far, so good.
Two Scottish by-elections on the same night as Makerfield provide the outline for some deeper consideration.
The SNP losing Aberdeen South to the Tories is down to very particular circumstances. This is a city absolutely dominated by the North Sea Oil industry, with the SNP Scottish government blamed for planning to close it down. Labour’s share of the vote? Down by 19.4%, barely saving its deposit, at 5.4%. In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, the SNP held the seat, up 5.9% to 41.2%. Labour was down 18%, finishing fourth on 15.4%.
In Makerfield, Labour was significantly helped by both the Greens and Lib Dems running non-campaigns. It would be good to hear Andy Burnham thank both parties, but sadly in his victory speech he failed to do so.
Of the Lib Dems’ top 50 target seats in 2024, all but two were Tory seats.
Of the Greens top 50 target seats in 2029, 36 are Labour seats.
To turn Makerfield into an Andy Burnham-led Labour Party seeing off Reform in 2029 will require Labourism to be transformed by pluralism. It will be necessary to recognise Labour’s future as part of a progressive bloc, not a stand-alone.
If you’re in East Midlands, come and hear me speak on the above on Saturday, in Newark. Details here.
Mark Perryman is the editor of The Starmer Symptom. Contributors include Clive Lewis, Danny Dorling, Emma Burnell, Gargi Bhattacharyya, James Meadway, Hilary Wainwright Jeremy Gilbert, Neal Lawson, Phil Burton-Cartledge and Yasmin Alibhai-Brown.
Main image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nigel_Farage_%2833149364955%29.jpg Source: Nigel Farage Author:
Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.
'Reform UK won’t build more council housing… They will attempt to blame ‘foreign nationals’ for the housing crisis.'
Nigel Farage has been condemned for saying that he would evict non-UK nationals from social housing and force them to find private rented accommodation or face deportation.
In a bid to tempt those considering voting for Restore Britain ahead of the Makerfield by-election this Thursday, Farage adopted the hardline policy that Rupert Lowe has already committed to.
On his new Substack account, the Reform leader said his party would give non-UK nationals three months to find private rented accommodation or be deported from the country.
Farage vowed that “veterans and long-term local residents will be preferenced for social housing” if he were in power.
His party has also pledged to abolish Indefinite Leave to Remain, one of the criteria that currently makes some migrants eligible for social housing.
However, despite Reform’s focus on the issue, official statistics show that only 7% of social housing tenants hold a non-UK passport.
The chief executive of the housing charity Shelter, Sarah Elliott, called Farage’s plan “racist and morally wrong”.
Elliott said: “These divisive plans risk kicking thousands of our friends, neighbours and colleagues out of their homes and the communities they are part of, without justification.”
“This would lead to increasing homelessness, put extreme pressure on councils and rip apart the fabric of our country for no reason,” she added.
Instead of political points-scoring, Elliott urged politicians to focus on building 90,000 social rented homes a year for the next decade.
Despite Farage’s rhetoric about prioritising British nationals, Stand Up To Racism pointed out that Reform won’t focus on tackling the shortage of affordable housing by building more council homes.
In a post on X, Stand Up To Racism wrote: “Reform UK won’t build more council housing,
They’ll continue to leave working class people struggling to put a roof over their head.
“They will attempt to blame ‘foreign nationals’ for the housing crisis. Don’t be fooled by divide & rule.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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