How we know humans cause global warming: A brief history of climate science  Fact check

Kate S. Petersen, USA TODAY
Updated Wed, December 20, 2023 

The claim: No one has shown that human CO2 emissions drive global warming

An Oct. 3 Facebook video (direct link, archive link) shows Ian Plimer, a skeptic of human-driven climate change, speaking at the Australian Conservative Political Action Conference in 2022.

"Game over. We are dealing with a fraud," the video is captioned. "Geologist, Professor Ian Plimer, exposes the monumental fraud that is 'human-induced global warming' in just two minutes: 'No one has ever shown that human emissions of carbon dioxide drive global warming … And if it could be shown, then you would have to show that the 97% of emissions which are natural, do not drive global warming.'"

The post was shared more than 3,000 times in two months.

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Our rating: False

More than a century of experimental and observational research by generations of scientists shows that modern global warming is driven by greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. Scientists know that natural CO2 emissions are not driving modern global warming because they are reabsorbed by natural "carbon sinks." However, additional emissions by humans have resulted in excess greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere − driving global warming.

Multiple lines of evidence and decades of research show humans are causing climate change

Human CO2 emissions have warmed the planet by amplifying Earth's "greenhouse effect" − the process by which greenhouse gases slow the release of heat into space. Scientists determined this through a lengthy process, which included establishing that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, determining that both CO2 and temperatures are increasing, determining that the increase in atmospheric CO2 is due to human behavior and using this knowledge to accurately predict future warming.

In the mid-1800s, scientists Eunice Foote and John Tyndall experimentally demonstrated that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. These gases, such as CO2, warm the planet by absorbing radiation otherwise destined for space.

After absorbing this radiation, CO2 molecules release their own radiation − some of which makes its way into space. But some of it also gets directed laterally to be absorbed by other CO2 molecules or back down to the Earth, effectively trapping warmth in the lower atmosphere.

Scientists have repeatedly confirmed the existence of this physical process.

"The theory and mathematics of radiation passing through gases are clearly defined," Michael Roman, a planetary scientist at the University of Leicester, previously told USA TODAY. The greenhouse effect has "been verified by laboratory experiments and meteorological observations."

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Researchers have also shown that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations are rising. For instance, in 1938, British engineer Guy Callendar determined that concentrations were increasing by analyzing historical records.

Two decades later, in 1958, geochemist Charles Keeling began daily measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the Mauna Loa station in Hawaii. Ongoing station measurements show that CO2 concentrations have increased by more than 100 ppm since then, rising to 420 ppm.

Callendar also reported that Earth's temperature had warmed, a finding that has been subsequently verified by multiple independent climate agencies based on global temperature sensors and satellite data. Modern scientists have also documented the consequences of this warming, which include glacial and polar ice melt, sea level rise − due to both ice melt and the expansion of warming seawater − and an increase in the frequency of certain extreme weather events, such as heat waves.

Based on the physics of the greenhouse effect and other processes, a certain amount of warming should result from a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on Earth. And this is what scientists have observed.

"The amount of warming we see matches what we expect based on the increased CO2 we've added," Josh Willis, a NASA climate scientist, previously told USA TODAY. "The timing of the warming matches the timing of the CO2 increase caused by people. Not only that, the timing of global sea level rise matches the CO2 increase."

Successful predictions show climate science is sound

Scientists have successfully leveraged their understanding of greenhouse gas and climate physics to predict future warming far in advance.

For instance, in the 1970s, scientists at oil giant ExxonMobil predicted decades of CO2-driven global warming before it occurred.

Harvard University historian of science Naomi Oreskes co-authored a 2023 analysis of ExxonMobil data from that time, reporting in the paper that "63 to 83% of the climate projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming."

In an email to USA TODAY, she called the Facebook post's claim "preposterous."

Past independent academic and government projections have also been relatively accurate, according to a 2017 Carbon Brief analysis of eight "prominent" climate models published between 1973 and 2013.

"Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming," wrote Zeke Hausfather, the author of the analysis, who was working as a research scientist at Berkeley Earth at the time. "While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account."

Past scientists also used their understanding of greenhouse gas and climate physics to predict that, while Earth's lower atmosphere would warm as CO2 levels increase, the stratosphere − an atmospheric layer roughly between 6 and 30 miles above the Earth's surface − would cool.

This stratospheric cooling, caused in part by the increased retention of radiation in the lower atmosphere, has since been documented by researchers using weather balloon and satellite measurements.

In addition to demonstrating that CO2 has increased and warmed the lower atmosphere, scientists have also confirmed that the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is due to human emissions.

One clue is that "the accumulation in the atmosphere matches the amount we've added through burning fossil fuels," Hausfather previously told USA TODAY.

Additionally, modern atmospheric CO2 contains a disproportionately high amount of a certain type of carbon − the type found in fossil fuels.

"There are many different 'fingerprints' that have been clearly identified by scientists as evidence that industrial pollution is the cause of recent global heating," Dargan Frierson, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington, told USA TODAY in an email. "This is not exactly a 'whodunit' situation. The evidence is overwhelming that fossil fuel burning is the culprit."

Natural CO2 emissions reabsorbed in 'carbon sinks,' humans tipped the scale

The post also implies that if natural CO2 emissions dwarf human emissions, then human CO2 cannot be the driver of climate change. That is wrong.

Currently, around 95% of annual CO2 emissions are natural, according to the 2022 Global Carbon Budget. This is similar to the figure in the post.

However, Earth's ecological systems reabsorb natural emissions in “carbon sinks,” such as forests, as part of Earth's carbon cycle, Gavin Schmidt, a NASA climate scientist, told USA TODAY.

Excess CO2 emissions are accumulating in the atmosphere because Earth's natural carbon sinks do not have the capacity to absorb all of the extra CO2 that humans emit, he said.

After decades of accumulation, atmospheric CO2 levels have increased by 50% since pre-industrial times, rising to levels unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Fact check: Humans are responsible for a significant amount of CO2 in the atmosphere

USA TODAY reached out to Plimer and the Facebook user who shared the post for comment but did not immediately receive a response.

Climate Feedback also debunked the claim.

Our fact-check sources:

• Mark Zelinka, Dec. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY

• Dargan Frierson, Dec. 13, Email exchange with USA TODAY

• Naomi Oreskes, Dec. 15, Email exchange with USA TODAY

• Gavin Schmidt, June 7, Email exchange with USA TODAY

• USA TODAY, Jan. 20, Fact check: Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, not mysterious ocean warming

• USA TODAY, Dec. 5, 2021, Fact check: Human-generated CO2, not water vapor, drives climate change

• USA TODAY, Nov. 1, False claim 'climate crisis hoax' statement signed by thousands of scientists | Fact check

• USA TODAY, June 26, Humans are responsible for a significant amount of CO2 in the atmosphere | Fact check

• USA TODAY, Jan. 10, Fact check: Global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels are correlated, contrary to claim

• USA TODAY, Nov. 29, Global warming is from human activity, not sea volcanos or El Niño | Fact check

• USA TODAY, Feb. 27, Fact check: Carbon dioxide has an effect on the climate, contrary to post

• USA TODAY, Nov. 28, Fact check: Earth's warming well documented, other planets' climate data limited

• Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy and the Environment and Water, accessed Nov. 26, Understanding climate change

• The Conversation, July 21, 2020, John Tyndall: the forgotten co-founder of climate science

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, March 25, 2021, Direct Observations Confirm That Humans Are Throwing Earth's Energy Budget off Balance

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Causes

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Global temperature

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Carbon dioxide

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Ocean warming

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Ice sheets

• NASA Vital Signs of the Planet, accessed Dec. 15, Sea level

• NASA Earth Observatory, accessed Dec. 15, World of Change: Global Temperatures

• Environmental Protection Agency, July 2022, Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves

• Environmental Protection Agency, accessed Nov. 26, Climate Change Indicators: Weather and Climate

• NOAA, Oct. 12, 2022, How do we know the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans?

• NOAA, May 12, Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, accessed Dec. 12, History of Climate Change Interactive Timeline

• University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, accessed Dec. 15, The Stratosphere

• Carbon Brief, April 28, 2021, Melting glaciers drove ‘21% of sea level rise’ over past two decades

• Carbon Brief, Oct. 5, 2017, Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming?

• BBC, April 26, 2013, Guy Stewart Callendar: Global warming discovery marked

• Wired, Jan. 23, 2018, Meet the Amateur Scientist Who Discovered Climate Change

• The Harvard Gazette, Jan. 12, Exxon disputed climate findings for years. Its scientists knew better

• Science, Jan. 13, Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections

• National Geographic, accessed Dec. 17, Carbon Sources and Sinks

• Global Carbon Project, 2022, Global Carbon Budget 2022

• PNAS, May 8, Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature

• University of California Los Angeles, Aug. 21, Stratospheric cooling: The concerning flip side of global warming

• World Resources Institute, Jan. 21, 2021, Forests Absorb Twice As Much Carbon As They Emit Each Year

Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or e-newspaper here.

USA TODAY is a verified signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network, which requires a demonstrated commitment to nonpartisanship, fairness and transparency. Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Meta.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Is global warming caused by humans? Evidence says yes | Fact check

WORKERS CAPITAL
Canada pension fund Caisse, Mexico pause arbitration to seek energy resolution

Reuters
Wed, December 20, 2023

MEXICO CITY, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Canadian pension fund Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec and the Mexican economy ministry have temporarily suspended an international arbitration procedure to try to reach an agreement, the ministry said on Wednesday, putting the brakes on the latest clash over Mexico's energy policies.

Caisse, which along with subsidiary CDP Groupe Infrastructures, had its complaints lodged last week with the World Bank's dispute settlement body. It said the dispute related to "a renewable energy generation enterprise."

Caisse has investments in solar and wind parks in Mexico operated by power company Enel's renewable energy arm.

A Caisse spokesperson declined to comment. Caisse is Canada's No. 2 pensions manager, overseeing $318.37 billion in assets at the end of June.

The fund has previously met with Mexican officials to discuss concerns over its energy investments in the country. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in January he had resolved outstanding issues relating to Caisse and others.

However, concerns persist, and the arbitration case is the most recent tussle over Lopez Obrador's energy policies that in 2022 culminated in the launch of dispute settlement proceedings by the United States and Canada against Mexico.

The president, a resource nationalist, has rolled back a 2013 liberalization of Mexico's energy sector, prompting private companies to argue they are now at an unfair disadvantage to Mexican state oil company Pemex and national power utility CFE.

The U.S. and Canada launched their suit under the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal, and the U.S. could soon escalate the dispute, Reuters reported in September. (Reporting by Kylie Madry and Raul Cortes; Additional reporting by Maiya Keidan and Denny Thomas; Editing by Brendan O'Boyle, Leslie Adler and Sandra Maler)

Watch This Gay Trump Supporter Get The Shock Of His Life When He Realizes Republicans Are Racist Homophobes

Ariel Messman-Rucker
Tue, December 19, 2023 

Rob Smith and unidentified men during the incident.


On Sunday, gay Trump supporter Rob Smith had a rude awakening when he discovered that the MAGA party is full of racists and homophobes. Who could have guessed?

“Last night in Phoenix, I was confronted and surrounded by some White Supremacists that don’t like gays or blacks in the Republican Party,” Smith wrote in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 18. “They shouted ‘n*****’ and ‘f*****’ at me to make their point. However, I served in Iraq. I never back down. Ever.”

This is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t align yourself with a political party that believes you are subhuman.

The incident happened while Smith was attending America Fest, hosted by Turning Point USA, a far-right organization that pushes conservative beliefs in schools for which he is a spokesperson. He is a veteran who has also written a memoir and hosts the podcast Can’t Cancel Rob Smith, which dissects pop culture and politics with “witty commentary that stops Cancel Culture dead in its tracks.” Eye roll.

[UPDATE] On Tuesday, after the video footage went viral, Smith went on CNN to defend his claim that the crowd hurled racial slurs despite them not being audible on the video. In an interview with CNN's Abby Phillip, Smith said he was the victim of a "hate crime" and that the men who surrounded him "did say the N-word, absolutely," Newsweek reported.

"I am looking in the eyes of people that were actual neo-Nazis and actual white supremacists," he said. "There were about 20 to 25 of these people and that is what you do not see on camera. So, I had a choice to de-escalate the situation with humor, which is what I did."

Then, in a bizarre but sadly predictable turn of events, he doubled down on his commitment to Trump and the Republican party. "Do I think that this stuff is coming from the millions of people that voted for Trump? I do not, I do not," he said. "Do I think that it's something that the Trump campaign endorses or the Republican Party endorses? I do not, because I know these people and I have been around these people."

Post by @keithboykin
View on Threads

Along with the original post, Smith shared a video taken of the incident. In it, you can see Smith walking into what looks like a bar or restaurant, holding his phone out and filming the men following him while he says, “Look at that, I’ve got some fans!” as he laughs.

Things begin to take a turn when the crowd of men start chanting "gay sex." At first, Smith pumps his fist in the air along with them but then tries to joke that far-right political commentator Nick Fuentes "loves gay sex." The night quickly escalates as men can be heard shouting "f*****" at him, Queerty reported.

It’s truly astounding that anyone could be caught off guard by MAGA zealots not being downs with the gays. Have you been living under a rock?!

The video, however, doesn’t show the crowd using any racial slurs despite what Smith wrote in his social media post. But another X user, @JRMajewski, did back up his account of events, writing, “I was there… when I heard the commotion, I stood up for Rob and made sure he got out of there safely. This is the unfortunate reality of a fractured party without leadership.”

We hate to break it to you, but conservatives have been shouting racial and homophobic slurs at people for decades. You can't expect niceties from Trump supporters who welcome white supremacists with open arms.

The comment section under the post is an absolute cesspool, full of rampant homophobia and racism. Again, this is why “Log Cabin Republicans” and “gay Trump supporters” are oxymorons.

There were also people who were clearly finding it hard to have sympathy for someone who chose to align themselves with a hate-fueled political party.

“You chose to be a Republican despite knowing what they stand for. And now you want sympathy?” one person commented.

“Interesting. What group do those types identify with politically?” another X user wrote.

“These are the people who keep pushing anti-gay crap. Why associate with this element at all???” someone else commented.

Let’s hope Smith comes to his senses one of these days and stops using his vote to elect people who hate us.




Black Gay Conservative Targeted With Homophobic Slurs at Right-Wing Conference

Donald Padgett
Wed, December 20, 2023 

Rob Smith Gay Black Conservative Commentator


A Black gay conservative influencer was showered with chants of “f*gg*t” by a group of white supremacists at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest on Sunday evening.

Rob Smith posted a video to X, formerly known as Twitter, on Monday showing him being accosted by a group of young white men wearing dark suits with white shirts at the annual conservative conference. The event draws a broad spectrum of conservative notables including TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk, actress Roseanne Barr, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, conservative commentator, and sportswriter Jason Whitlock among others.

“Last night in Phoenix, I was confronted and surrounded by some White Supremacists that don’t like gays or blacks in the Republican Party,” Smith posted to X.

The video appears to open after the incident began and shows Smith filming the group of young men and saying “I’ve got some fans here.”

The group then begins chanting, “Gay sex!” to which Smith responds, “Yes, Nick Fuentes loves gay sex,” referring to the far-right political commentator who was permanently banned from YouTube in 2020 after violating the platform’s hate speech policy with homophobic, racist, and misogynistic content.

The group at Turning Point erupted in boos in response and chanted, “F*gg*t!”

Smith wrote on X that they shouted racial and antigay slurs. "However, I served in Iraq. I never back down. Ever," Smith said.


— (@)

Shortly after the video was posted, a man claimed to have filmed the video responded in the comments of Smith’s post.

User Iggy Normus, Jr. claimed responsibility for the video and denied a racial slur was used in the incident. He then indirectly used the homophobic slur to disparage Smith once more.

— (@)

When a user called him “disgusting and should be banned from society,” Normus responded, “No, homosexuality should be.”

Similar homophobic comments and posts appear common for Normus. He recently objected to the announcement that gay conservative pundit Guy Benson and his husband were expecting a baby via surrogacy.

— (@)

He also retweeted a post claiming the couple has “rented a womb to acquire a baby” and characterized the event as “wicked and an abomination before God.”


— (@)

The reaction to the video drew a wide variety of responses. Many were in support of Smith and sharply criticized Normus. Some however criticized Smith for expecting a gay Black conservative to be accepted at Turning Point.

Smith has taken positions on hot-button issues that have angered some conservatives.

— (@)

The tweet drew a strongly negative response from one popular online conservative personality.

— (@)

Turning Point USA was in the news in October for an incident involving a film crew and an instructor at Arizona State University. David Boyles, a teacher at the school and the co-founder of Drag Story Hour Arizona, said the cameraman and the interviewer from Turning Point assaulted him. Video of the incident appears to show Boyles pushing away the camera before he is pushed to the ground by the interviewer asking questions.

The Advocate reached out to Normus for comment on the video shortly prior to publication and will include any statements if they become available.

The United States is producing more oil than any country in history

ENOUGH ENERGY SECURITY FOR YA?!

Matt Egan, CNN
Tue, December 19, 2023 


As the world grapples with the existential crisis of climate change, environmental activists want President Joe Biden to phase out the oil industry, and Republicans argue he’s already doing that. Meanwhile, the surprising reality is the United States is pumping oil at a blistering pace and is on track to produce more oil than any country has in history.

The United States is set to produce a global record of 13.3 million barrels per day of crude and condensate during the fourth quarter of this year, according to a report published Tuesday by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Last month, weekly US oil production hit 13.2 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s just above the Donald Trump-era record of 13.1 million set in early 2020 just before the Covid-19 crisis sent output and prices crashing.

That’s been helping to keep a lid on crude and gasoline prices.

US output – led by shale oil drillers in Texas and New Mexico’s Permian Basin – is so strong that it’s sending supplies overseas. America is exporting the same amount of crude oil, refined products and natural gas liquids as Saudi Arabia or Russia produces, S&P said.

“It’s a reminder that the US is endowed with enormous oil reserves. Our industry should never be underestimated,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

Record-shattering US production is helping to offset aggressive supply cuts meant to support high prices by OPEC+, mainly Saudi Arabia and Russia. Other non-OPEC oil producers including Canada and Brazil are also pumping more oil than ever before. (Brazil is set to join OPEC+ next year.)

The strength of US output has caught experts off guard. Goldman Sachs analysts on Sunday cut their forecast for oil prices next year. The bank said the “key reason” behind the lowered forecast is the abundance of US supply.

Global demand for crude oil is set to hit a record in 2024 – but it will “easily be met” by the growth in supply, according to S&P’s projections.
Gas prices near $3

All of this has helped to keep oil prices relatively in check. After flirting with $100 a barrel earlier this year, crude has since tumbled back to the $70 to $75 range.

Energy prices have jumped this week after BP halted shipments through the Red Sea due to security concerns. Still, US oil is trading below $74 a barrel, well below where it was when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.

Gas prices neared the psychologically important level of $4 a gallon in September. But prices at the pump have since fallen sharply, helping to ease inflationary pressure on the US economy.

The national average for a gallon of regular gas stood at $3.08 a gallon on Tuesday, down from $3.14 a year ago, according to AAA.
‘Biden’s war on energy’

Despite record-setting production, Biden has come under fire for his energy policy.

“Unfortunately, this Administration continues to pursue policies designed to limit access to new production—most notably on federal lands and waters. The world will continue to demand more energy, not less, and we urge policymakers to recognize the role American energy production can play as a stabilizing force for consumers here at home and around the world,” American Petroleum Institute Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs Dustin Meyer, said in a statement on Tuesday.

In September, the House subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources held a hearing titled: “Biden’s War on Domestic Energy Threatens Every American.”

Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska warned in a floor speech that the Biden administration’s war on energy is a “gift to our adversaries.”

Earlier this month at a GOP presidential primary debate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis vowed to “open up all of our domestic energy for production” to “lower your gas prices.” DeSantis made a similar comment at the CNN town hall last week.

That the US is about to produce more oil than any country ever before undercuts the argument that Biden has waged a war on American energy.
Presidents don’t set oil production

Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s Biden policies that have paved the way for record US oil production, nor that the White House would rush to take credit for that.

McNally, a former energy official to former President George W. Bush, said there isn’t that much presidents can do about US oil production, short of taking drastic emergency powers.

Unlike OPEC nations, the United States oil output is largely set by the free market.

“It’s not like President Biden or any president has a dial in the Oval Office to increase production,” McNally said.

Instead, the spike in US output has been driven by smarter and more efficient operations by oil companies. Energy firms have figured out ways to squeeze more and more oil out of the ground – often without increasing drilling dramatically.

The shale oil revolution has been driven by new drilling techniques that have unlocked new resources. But this technique can be more complex and requires vast amounts of water.
‘Kicking and screaming’

Yet McNally said the White House has been forced to shift its tone on fossil fuels from the climate-focused stance of 2020 and early 2021 to something more neutral.

Last year, gas prices spiked above $5 a gallon following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which set off a panic in the oil market. Biden urged US oil companies to pump more oil – exactly the opposite of what climate scientists are calling for.

In March, the Biden administration even approved the Willow oil drilling project, a controversial ConocoPhillips drilling venture in Alaska that had been stalled for decades. That green light came in the face of deep criticism from climate groups worried about the environmental and health risks.

“President Biden has been dragged kicking and screaming from his initial keep-it-in-the-ground strategy towards a more pragmatic policy,” McNally said, noting the administration was “mugged by the reality of high gas prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

Oil set to end winning streak over US stock build

Yuka Obayashi
Updated Wed, December 20, 2023 

Crude oil storage tanks are seen in an aerial photograph at the Cushing oil hub

TOKYO (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Thursday and were on track to snap a three-day winning streak, as concerns over low demand following a surprise U.S. crude inventory build outweighed jitters over global trade disruptions due to tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $79.48 a barrel by 0303 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74 a barrel, also down 22 cents or 0.3%.

Both benchmarks ended higher on Wednesday for a third straight session, as investors worried about trade disruptions given major maritime carriers chose to steer clear of the Red Sea route, with longer voyages increasing transport and insurance costs.

"Market focus returned to sluggish global demand as the impact on the Red Sea is seen to be limited on oil as long as it does not spill over into the Strait of Hormuz," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute.

"A build in U.S. crude stocks and record domestic oil production also added to pressure," he said.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 15 to 443.7 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million barrel drop.

EIA also said U.S. crude output rose to a record 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, up from the prior all-time high of 13.2 million bpd.

For shipping, about 12% of world traffic passes up the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal. However, the impact on oil supply has been limited so far, analysts said, because the bulk of Middle East crude is exported via the Strait of Hormuz.

"Since there will be no additional production cuts by OPEC+ this year, oil prices will likely remain in range through the end of the year, with focus on key economic statistics and the U.S. dollar's reaction to them," said Naohiro Niimura, a partner at Market Risk Advisory, a research and consulting firm.

He predicted WTI would trade between $70 and $75 this month.

The U.S.-led coalition imposing a price cap on seaborne Russian oil announced changes on Wednesday to its compliance regime that the Treasury Department said would make it harder for Russian exporters to bypass the cap.

(Reporting by Yuka Obayashi and Sudarshan Varadhan; Editing by Jamie Freed)

Strange 'slide whistle' fast radio burst picked up by alien-hunting telescope defies explanation

Robert Lea
Tue, December 19, 2023

An illustration shows mysterious fast radio bursts as they bombard Earth from deep space.


Astronomers watched 35 explosive outbursts from a rare repeating "fast radio burst" (FRB) as it shifted in frequency like a "cosmic slide whistle," blinking in a puzzling pattern never seen before.

FRBs are millisecond-long flashes of light from beyond the Milky Way that are capable of producing as much energy in a few seconds as the sun does in a year. FRBs are believed to come from powerful objects like neutron stars with intense magnetic fields — also called magnetars — or from cataclysmic events like stellar collisions or the collapse of neutron stars to form black holes. Complicating the FRB picture, a few FRBs are "repeaters" that flash from the same spot in the sky more than once, while the majority burst once and then vanish.

The team behind the new research used the SETI Institute's Allen Telescope Array (ATA) to study the highly active repeating FRB known as FRB 20220912A. As they watched the FRB over 541 hours (nearly 23 days), the team saw its bursts of radiation cover a wide range of frequencies in the radio wave region of the electromagnetic spectrum, which eventually developed into a fascinating pattern that astronomers had never seen before.


The new data could finally help unravel the mystery of where deep-space FRBs come from and why a small minority of these rapid and intense blasts of radiation repeat.

Related: Scientists detect fastest-ever fast radio bursts, lasting just 10 millionths of a second

"This work is exciting because it provides both confirmation of known FRB properties and the discovery of some new ones," lead study author Sofia Sheikh, a postdoctoral fellow at the SETI Institute, said in a statement. "We're narrowing down the source of FRBs, for example, to extreme objects such as magnetars, but no existing model can explain all of the properties that have been observed so far."

The findings were accepted for publication in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, and a copy is available to read on arXiv.org.

The spectra of the fast radio burst FRB 20220912A, showing its shifts in frequency.
Patterns and chaos in fast radio bursts

Sheikh and colleagues found that the bursts of radiation from FRB 20220912A shifted down in frequency, and when converted to notes played on a xylophone, this shift sounded like a slide whistle's descending toot — a behavior that scientists had never seen before from an FRB. This also helped the team identify that there is a cutoff point for the brightness of bursts from FRB 20220912A, revealing how much of the overall cosmic signal rate this FRB is responsible for.

While there was a noticeable pattern in the frequency of FRB 20220912A's bursts, there was no clear pattern to how long these bursts lasted or how much time passed between them. This shows there is an inherent unpredictability in repeating FRBs.

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In addition, the study demonstrated how SETI's ATA — a telescope designed to hunt for radio signals from potential alien intelligence — has an important contribution to make to the study of FRBs and, therefore, some of the universe's most extreme events and objects.

"It has been wonderful to be part of the first FRB study done with the ATA — this work proves that new telescopes with unique capabilities, like the ATA, can provide a new angle on outstanding mysteries in FRB science," Sheikh said.


These Bizarre Radio Signals from Deep Space Keep Getting Weirder

Cassidy Ward

SYFY
Tue, December 19, 2023 

These Bizarre Radio Signals from Deep Space Keep Getting Weirder

If aliens are out there, zipping around the cosmos in their high-tech spacecraft, they’re being pretty quiet about it. If Harry Vanderspeigle (star of Resident Alien, streaming now on Peacock) and his buddies are saying anything, they must be using some communications technology we haven’t dreamed up yet.

For decades, scientists have been searching the skies for stray radio signals, hoping to pick up some sign that we aren’t alone in the universe. So far, we haven’t found any smoking phasers but astronomers have picked up some weird radio signals with origins unknown. Recently, one such fast radio burst (FRB) upped the weirdness level when it did something we’ve never seen an FRB do before.
Something Sent Repeating Fast Radio Bursts into Space for Months

Our knowledge and understanding of FRBs is still in its infancy. The fist FRB was discovered only in 2007, when astronomers were sifting through archival pulsar data. Since then, astronomers have identified hundreds of FRBs from points all over space, but we don’t precisely know what they are or what causes them.

RELATED: A Single Object Ripped Out Over 1,600 Fast Radio Bursts in Just a Few Days and No One Knows Why

What we do know is that FRBs are highly energetic, producing incredibly bright but brief flashes of light. The energy released from a single burst contains the combined power produced by the Sun in more than a day, all compacted into an instant. They are usually isolated events, which makes them difficult to study. You usually can’t plan to observe them and have to get lucky, but occasionally an FRB repeats, giving astronomers an opportunity to aim their telescopes.

Magnetar Burst

A rupture in the crust of a highly magnetized neutron star, shown here in an artist's rendering, can trigger high-energy eruptions Photo: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/S. Wiessinger

That’s what happened in the fall of 2022, when astronomers detected FRB 20220912A, a highly active, repeating FRB. Astronomers used SETI’s Allen Telescope Array (ATA), a custom-built telescope array at the Hat Creek Observatory in California’s Cascade Mountains. The array is capable of observing in a wide range of frequencies and can even check out multiple targets at once.

Astronomers pointed the ATA at FRB 20220912A for a total of 541 hours over the course of several months and recorded 35 individual radio bursts. FRBs commonly drift from high to low frequencies over time, and this one was no exception, but astronomers noticed an additional characteristic they had never seen before. Each of the bursts had an unusual dropout in the middle frequencies which researchers described as sounding like a slide whistle when the data was translated to sound.

RELATED: NASA Prepping New Laser Communication System For Astronauts On Mars, The Moon

“This work is exciting because it provides both confirmation of known FRB properties and the discovery of some new ones. We’re narrowing down the source of FRBs, for example, to extreme objects such as magnetars, but no existing model can explain all of the properties that have been observed so far,” said lead author Dr Sofia Sheikh, in a statement.

As to the origin of FRBs, they could be alien broadcasts but let’s be honest… that’s an awful lot of power to burn just to say hello to your galactic neighbors. There’s likely a more mundane but still radical explanation. One popular hypothesis involves magnetars, highly magnetized neutron stars. Another involves the collision of two or more white dwarfs and the burst of energy which might be released in the aftermath. It’s probably definitely not alien communication, but there is no explanation of FRBs that doesn’t make the universe more interesting.

These scientists want to put a massive 'sunshade' in orbit to help fight climate change

Leonard David
Tue, December 19, 2023 

An illustration showing a giant reflector in space above Earth, partially blocking the light from the sun.


A group has been formed to study and promote a space-based sunshade to help fend off global climate change.

The idea has been discussed for years, but the Planetary Sunshade Foundation is cranking out papers that support the concept and spotlight the practicality of the approach.

A planetary sunshade, the Foundation advises, could be the best solution for solar radiation management and should be viewed as a key part of global efforts to counter ongoing climate change on Earth.

A matter of degrees

Undoing the worst effects of climate change may well rest on three pillars: Emissions reduction, carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management.

There is an international agreement to strive to keep the world's average temperature from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over current averages. But the cold fact is that the lower the average temperature increase, the lower the climate impacts.

That said, climate change researchers have reported that our planet may well cross 1.5°C in the next decade. In the meantime there are now increased incidents of extreme weather, trends in sea level rise, widespread fires, along with melting ice caps.

Coupled to these warning signs is political pressure to counter climate-change calamity.

Livable planet

Morgan Goodwin is the Executive Director of the Planetary Sunshade Foundation.

As for why the group is pursuing the initiative, Goodwin is clear that current decarbonization strategies are necessary, but they are insufficient for a livable planet.

Decarbonisation is the lessening of carbon dioxide emissions by way of utilizing low carbon power sources to attain a lower output of greenhouse gasses permeating Earth's atmosphere.

"To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the world should rapidly phase out the use of fossil fuels, remove gigatons of carbon from the atmosphere, and limit the incoming solar radiation," Goodwin told Space.com. Of all the methods broached to reduce solar radiation, he said, the sunshade has many advantages deserving of investment in the concept.

a diagram showing how a shade in space could keep some solar radiation from reach Earth

Construction strategies

Touted as a "megastructure" in space, a sunshade would be installed at the Sun-Earth Lagrange-1 point. Once in place, it could reduce radiative forcing — the trapping of heat in the atmosphere due to greenhouse gas emissions — by reflecting sunlight back into space.

The foundation says that construction of a Planetary Sunshade is possible, drawing upon initial solar sail technology already flown. "The rapid technological progress of space launch systems has resulted in the cost of sending materials and people into space dropping fast, changing the scope of what is possible."

According to the foundation, there are two possible sunshade construction strategies.

"We are pursuing both options, and think that if a planetary sunshade is built, the initial phases of construction will be an Earth-launched architecture while the later phases will use space resources and in-space construction," the group's website explains.

a silver kite-like sail in space

Hands-off Mother Nature?

But there are those that hold tight onto the belief: "You shouldn't fool with Mother Nature!"

Goodwin responds by pointing out that humans are messing with Mother Nature at a grand scale through state-sanctioned and often state-subsidized industrial practices.

"Our survival as a civilization depends on our ability to wisely and intentionally change how we interact with our planet," said Goodwin.

Indeed, in the past year, the White House published a congressionally mandated report on geoengineering governance pathways, Goodwin said, a document that takes "a small but solid step forward," he added, into creating a framework for further investment in geoengineering research.

a diagram showing various techniques of mitigating solar radiation

Report takeaways

In June of this year, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released the Congressionally-mandated report on solar radiation modification.

As for report takeaways it cautions that any potential comprehensive research program must encompass the societal as well as the scientific dimensions of solar radiation modification.

The document highlights several key priority areas for further solar radiation modification research, including determining climate and environmental impacts of solar radiation modification deployment; assessing potential societal outcomes and ecological consequences; and the need to examine how research might be done in cooperation among international partners.

That report also acknowledges that research on solar radiation modification impacts to date has been ad hoc and fragmented, rather than being the product of a comprehensive strategy. As a result, substantial knowledge gaps and uncertainties exist in many critical areas.

Uncertainties, risks, challenges

Earlier this year, the Global Commission on Governing Risks from Climate Overshoot (the "Climate Overshoot Commission") issued their report.

This independent group of global leaders recommended a strategy to reduce risks should global warming goals be exceeded, that is a "climate overshoot" that crosses the 1.5 °C threshold.

In the commission report, they broached space-based reflectors; stratospheric aerosol injection, cirrus cloud thinning and marine cloud brightening — all solar Radiation Modification (SRM) techniques.

"But SRM would counter climate change imperfectly and poses serious uncertainties, risks, and governance challenges," the commission study reported.

"The governance gaps for SRM are the most acute," that reported said. "How can it be researched and evaluated without distracting from essential reductions of greenhouse gas emissions? Who decides whether to undertake SRM and under which conditions? How could countries' differences on this question be resolved?"

Goodwin of the Planetary Sunshade Foundation concludes that this year will close as the hottest year ever recorded, replacing 2022 which in turn took that title from 2021. "As the rate and impacts of warming increase, more and more tactics and perspectives will be brought to the table."

Whether or not a sun-deflecting, "made-in-the-shade" sail remains a bright prospect on that discussion table is yet to be determined.

LOT'S OF TREE PICS

"Underwhelming": Biden admin tosses token protection to old-growth forests

Rae Hodge

SALON
Wed, December 20, 2023 

Old-growth forest Olympic National Forest Washington 

Greg Vaughn /VW PICS/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

A coalition of more than 120 environmental groups applauded what it called "an important first step" Tuesday, when the U.S. Forest Service announced a more conservation-friendly proposal for its management of 128 national forests and grasslands. In a April 2021 executive order, President Joe Biden told the US Forest Service to start inventorying and protecting the 150-year-old "old-growth" forests which face logging threats. More than two and a half years later, the Forest Service is now finally proposing a change to its management policy of the ancient trees — a move that only comes after critics accused the Forest Service last June of dragging its feet on behalf of the logging industry, as first reported by The Huffington Post. Citing disastrous threats to the forests, the Forest Service proposal would mark the first nationwide amendment in the agency's 118-year history and restrict logging on 25 million acres of old-growth timber. But "mature" forests — those just shy of 150 years — are still vulnerable to destruction.

“The FS has squandered the opportunity to respond meaningfully to [Biden’s executive order] by limiting the scope to old growth only, with no provisions — none — for mature trees and forests,” Jim Furnish, former Forest Service deputy chief, told HuffPost. “This small step forward is certainly better than nothing, but a far cry from the big leap needed to respond to our climate change crises. The FS logged and liquidated most of the old growth with tragic consequences and has an obligation to not only protect what remains but restore millions of acres by allowing mature forests to grow. This proposal fails entirely in that regard.”

Along with the Climate Forests Campaign coalition, support for the proposal came from the Sierra Club which called the proposal "a meaningful step towards averting climate catastrophe" and "safeguarding vulnerable ecosystems." Meanwhile, US companies are producing more oil than any country in history and is set to produce a global record of 13.3 million barrels per day by the end of the year, after President Joe Biden urged them to pump more last year and then approved a controversial Alaskan drilling project this March. The new oil production flood is outpacing the record of 13.1 million daily gallons, set by companies under former President Donald Trump in 2020. The new surge in production also comes as part of a new drilling technique that consumes vast amounts of water. The Forest Service's proposal now awaits finalization by President Joe Biden.

Chris Wood, the president of Trout Unlimited and a former official with the US Forest Service, told the Associated Press the policy “is a step in the right direction”.

“This is the first time the Forest Service has said its national policy will be to protect old growth,” Wood said.

Other advocates are emphasizing that this is just Biden’s first step toward fulfilling his executive order.

“Protecting our old-growth trees from logging is an important first step to ensure these giants continue to store vast amounts of carbon, but other older forests also need protection,” Randi Spivak, public lands policy director with the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a press release. “To fulfill President Biden’s executive order and address the magnitude of the climate crisis, the Forest Service also needs to protect our mature forests, which if allowed to grow will become the old growth of tomorrow.”

Joe Biden plans to ban logging in US old-growth forests in 2025
Lauren Aratani

THE GUARDIAN
Tue, December 19, 2023 

Photograph: Zach Urness/AP


Joe Biden’s administration on Tuesday announced a new proposal aimed at banning logging in old-growth forests, a move meant to protect millions of trees that play a key role in fighting the climate crisis.

The proposal comes from an executive order signed by the president on Earth Day in 2022 that directed the US Forest Service and the land management bureau to conduct an inventory of old-growth and mature forest groves as well as to develop policies that protect them.

“We think this will allow us to respond effectively and strategically to the biggest threats that face old growth,” the US agriculture secretary, Tom Vilsack, told the Washington Post. “At the end of the day, it will protect not just the forests but also the culture and heritage connected to the forests.”

The US Forest Service oversees 193m acres of forests and grasslands, 144m of which are forests. In its inventory conducted after Biden’s executive order, the agency found that the vast majority of forests it oversees, about 80%, are either old-growth or mature forests. It found more than 32m acres of old-growth forests and 80m acres of mature forests on federal land.

The land management bureau defines old-growth forests as those with trees that are in later stages of stand development, which typically means at least 120 years of growth, depending on species. The giant sequoias in California, for example, are old-growth trees. Mature forests, meanwhile, have trees that are in the development stage immediately before old growth.

Advocates for years have been pushing the Biden administration to explicitly ban logging in old-growth and mature forests. Trees that are in their old-growth stage are able to store more carbon than younger trees, making them a natural solution to fighting the climate crisis.

In 2022, shortly before Biden announced his executive order, a group of more than 130 scientists wrote a letter to Biden advocating a ban on logging in old-growth forests.

“Older forests provide the most above-ground carbon storage potential on Earth, with mature forests and larger trees driving most accumulation of forest carbon in the critical next few decades,” the letter read. “Left vulnerable to logging, though, they cannot fulfill these vital functions.”

The ban will come into effect in early 2025, allowing time for the Forest Service to finalize rules that will protect old-growth forests from logging. Because it comes under an executive order, its existence depends on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, making advocates worried about the protections’ vulnerability to the country’s political climate.

But federal agencies have also been under pressure from the timber industry, which argues that logging creates economic activity and helps to fight wildfires. The proposal focuses on most old-growth forests, leaving mature forests still vulnerable to logging, which is a middle ground between environmentalists and the timber industry.

Will humans cut down trees that have been alive for thousands of years? New rules say no.

Trevor Hughes, USA TODAY
Updated Wed, December 20, 2023 



The nation's oldest trees are getting new protections under a Biden administration initiative to make it harder to cut down old-growth forests for lumber.

The news has implications for climate change and the planet: Forests lock up carbon dioxide, helping reduce the impacts of climate change. That's in addition to providing habitat for wild animals, filtering drinking water sources and offering an unmatched historical connection.

Announced Tuesday, the initiative covers about 32 million acres of old growth and 80 million acres of mature forest nationally ‒ a land area a little larger than California.


“The administration has rightly recognized that protecting America's mature and old-growth trees and forests must be a core part of America's conservation vision and playbook to combat the climate crisis,” Garett Rose, senior attorney at Natural Resources Defense Council said in a statement.
What trees are being protected?

Most of the biggest stretches of old-growth forests in the United States are in California and the Pacific Northwest, along with Alaska, although this initiative also covers many smaller forests on the East Coast where trees may be only a few hundred years old. Old-growth sequoias and bristlecone pines in the West can be well over 2,000 years old.

Environmental activists have identified federally owned old and mature-growth forest areas about the size of Phoenix that are proposed for logging, from portions of the Green Mountain Forest in Vermont to the Evans Creek Project in Oregon, where officials are proposing to decertify almost 1,000 acres of spotted owl habitat to permit logging. The Biden plan tightens the approval process for logging old and mature forests and proposes creating plans to restore and protect those areas.

The forests targeted in the new Biden order are managed by the U.S. Forest Service, separate from other initiatives to protect similar forests overseen by the Bureau of Land Management.

US has long history of logging

European settlers colonizing North America found a landscape largely untouched by timber harvesting, and they heavily logged the land to build cities and railroads, power industries and float a Navy.

In the late 1800s, federal officials began more actively managing the nation's forests to help protect water sources and provide timber harvests and later expanded that mission to help protect federal forests from over-cutting. And while more than half of the nation's forests are privately owned, they're also among the youngest, in comparison to federally protected old-growth and mature forests.

Logging jobs once powered the economies of many states but environmental restrictions have weakened the industry as regulators sought to protect wildlife and the natural environment. Old-growth timber is valuable because it can take less work to harvest and turn into large boards, which are themselves more valuable because they can be larger and stronger.

“Our ancient forests are some of the most powerful resources we have for taking on the climate crisis and preserving ecosystems,” Sierra Club forests campaign manager Alex Craven said in a statement. “We’re pleased to see that the Biden administration continues to embrace forest conservation as the critical opportunity that it is."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Old-growth forests rules protect old trees, Biden administration says

Biden administration moves to protect old growth forests

Tue, December 19, 2023 

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack unveiled the administration's proposed changes to old-growth forest protections on Tuesday.

 File Photo by Yuri Gripas/UPI

Dec. 19 (UPI) -- The Biden administration announced a new plan Tuesday to protect some of the nation's oldest trees on national forests and grasslands throughout the United States.

The action includes what the administration described as a "first-of-its-kind" proposal from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to amend all 128 forest land management plans throughout the nation "to conserve and restore old-growth forests across the National Forest System."

"Old-growth forests are a vital part of our ecosystems and a special cultural resource. This proposed nationwide forest plan amendment -- the first in the agency's history -- is an important step in conserving these national treasures," Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said. "Climate change is presenting new threats like historic droughts and catastrophic wildfire. This clear direction will help our old-growth forests thrive across our shared landscape."

The White House said the Forest Service would also initiate the process of updating the Northwest Forest Plan for climate resilience, including for mature and old forest ecosystems.

"The Northwest Forest Plan, initiated in 1994, guides the management of certain federally managed forests in Washington, Oregon, and California. These forests contain roughly one-quarter of the remaining old growth on the national forest system in the lower 48 states," the White House said.

The old-growth forest protections would prevent commercial logging on all 193 million acres of forests and grasslands, protecting some of the nation's oldest trees, many more than 100 years old and rich in carbon.

White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Brenda Mallory said U.S. forests absorb carbon dioxide equivalent to more than 10% of our nation's annual greenhouse gas emissions, making it a critical player in climate change.

"Under President Biden's leadership, our administration is acting to conserve and restore old-growth forests so nature can continue to be a key climate solution," Mallory said.

Officials said the proposal would benefit about 25 million acres of old growth overseen by the Forest Service, of which 45% is not protected from logging, and allows continued cutting under specific conditions.

It also requires the Forest Service to keep tabs on changes to old growth and efforts to protect it.

Biden administration proposes new steps to preserve the nation’s old-growth forests

Donald Judd, CNN
Tue, December 19, 2023 


The Biden administration proposed new steps Tuesday to conserve and restore the nation’s old-growth forests in a move it projects could combat greenhouse gas emissions and counter the effects of climate change.

The proposal from the US Department of Agriculture would amend all 128 forest land management plans across the country for the first time, with a goal of preserving and restoring old-growth and mature forests across the nation.

According to a fact sheet shared with CNN, the USDA and the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management oversee a combined 112 million acres of old-growth and mature forests on federal lands.

Old-growth and mature forests are a crucial part of the administration’s efforts to combat climate change, serving as a carbon sink by absorbing the equivalent of more than 10% of the nation’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Old-growth forests in particular tend to have a higher carbon density, which the USDA says makes them well suited to store more carbon than younger forests.

The proposal, the White House said Tuesday, falls under a 2022 Earth Day Executive Order from President Joe Biden aimed at tackling the climate crisis and strengthening climate resilience.

In addition, for the first time since 2007, the National Forest Service is updating its Northwest Forest Plan, which guides management of roughly one quarter of the continental United States’ federally managed forests, all located in Washington, Oregon and California, to better prepare for climate resilience.

Biden administration takes step toward protecting old-growth trees

Rachel Frazin

THE HILL
Tue, December 19, 2023 



The Biden administration on Tuesday took a step toward protecting older trees that store carbon dioxide and help to lessen climate change.

It issued a proposed plan with apparent limitations on cutting down old-growth trees — saying lands can’t be managed with the primary intention of logging such trees for economic reasons.

It does say that “ecologically appropriate” timber harvesting will be allowed as long as it meets certain standards.

The Agriculture Department also said it was proposing incorporating a “national intent” to maintain and improve old-growth forests into all of the land management plans within the National Forest System.

David Dreher, senior manager for public lands at the National Wildlife Federation, said the establishment of the “national intent” to protect these forests is important because it will inform decisions made by Forest Service officials.

“It does guide land managers in an important way when they look at how they want to manage acres on the ground,” Dreher told The Hill.

“An affirmative statement that says we need old forests and what I do in these old forests or in mature forests that I want to recruit into old forests contributes to the long-term persistence of those forests,” he said. “We’ve never had that before.”

Studies have shown that old-growth trees store significant amounts of carbon dioxide — making their protection important for fighting climate change.


Biden Administration Finally Moves To Protect Remaining Old-Growth Forests From Logging

Chris D'Angelo

HUFFPOST
Updated Tue, December 19, 2023 


The U.S. Forest Service, an agency with a long history of prioritizing timber production, has taken a first step toward protecting the nation’s most ancient forests from logging.

The agency on Tuesday announced a proposal to amend management plans for all 128 national forests and grasslands across the country to better conserve carbon-rich “old-growth” forests, typically defined as those at least 150 years old and largely undisturbed by human activity.

“Old-growth forests are a vital part of our ecosystems and a special cultural resource. This proposed nationwide forest plan amendment — the first in the agency’s history — is an important step in conserving these national treasures,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement. “Climate change is presenting new threats like historic droughts and catastrophic wildfire. This clear direction will help our old-growth forests thrive across our shared landscape.”

The proposal, if finalized, would restrict commercial logging across the approximately 25 million acres of old-growth timber that the Forest Service manages, but stops short of limiting harvest in “mature” forests, those that are decades old but haven’t reached the old-growth stage.

The move comes after months of the Forest Service seemingly dragging its feet on the issue, as HuffPost previously reported.

A logger cuts down a large fir tree in the Umpqua National Forest, near Oakridge, Oregon.

The Climate Forests Campaign, a coalition of more than 120 environmental groups, applauded Tuesday’s announcement as “an important first step” but called on the Forest Service to also take action to safeguard mature trees. Together, mature and old-growth forests form a key natural climate solution, sequestering a massive amount of planet-warming greenhouse gasses.

“Our ancient forests are some of the most powerful resources we have for taking on the climate crisis and preserving ecosystems,” Alex Craven, forests campaign manager at the Sierra Club, said in a statement. “We are pleased to see that the Biden administration continues to embrace forest conservation as the critical opportunity that it is. This amendment is a meaningful step towards averting climate catastrophe, safeguarding vulnerable ecosystems, and fulfilling President Biden’s commitment to preserve old-growth and mature trees across federal lands.”

The proposal stems from an executive order that President Joe Biden signed in April 2021 that tasked the nation’s two largest federal land managers, the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management, with first inventorying existing old-growth and mature forests and then crafting policies to better conserve and restore them.

Earlier this year, critics accused the Forest Service of not taking the executive order seriously and resisting abandoning what many view as an entrenched, logging-centric mindset within the agency.

Jim Furnish, a former deputy chief of the Forest Service in the Clinton administration, told HuffPost he is “underwhelmed” by Tuesday’s action.

“The FS has squandered the opportunity to respond meaningfully to [Biden’s executive order] by limiting the scope to old growth only, with no provisions — none — for mature trees and forests,” he said in an email. “This small step forward is certainly better than nothing, but a far cry from the big leap needed to respond to our climate change crises. The FS logged and liquidated most of the old growth with tragic consequences and has an obligation to not only protect what remains but restore millions of acres by allowing mature forests to grow. This proposal fails entirely in that regard.”

Steve Pedery, conservation director at environmental organization Oregon Wild, said the proposal is better than he was expecting.

“It is not the permanent mature and old-growth forest protection rule we are ultimately seeking, but if someone offers me a national ban on old-growth logging and a path towards a broader policy that includes mature, I’ll take it,” he said in an email.

But Pedery is concerned that a future administration could stymie the Biden administration effort.

“Development and implementation will almost certainly spill over into 2025 and beyond, so how effective it will ultimately be depends on who is in the White House,” he said. “That is why we have advocated for an administrative rule, like the Roadless Area Conservation Rule, because it would be much harder for future administrations to roll back or modify.”

Asked about the durability of the agency’s proposal, Vilsack told The Associated Press that it would be “a serious mistake for the country to take a step backwards now that we’ve taken significant steps forward.”

US Forest Service proposes to conserve old-growth forests, including Pisgah, Nantahala

Mitchell Black, Asheville Citizen Times
Wed, December 20, 2023 

ASHEVILLE – The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service announced a proposal Dec. 19 to conserve and steward old-growth forest conditions on national forests and grasslands nationwide. This plan would have a particular impact on Western North Carolina, home to the Nantahala and Pisgah national forests, which cover more than 1 million acres across the mountains.

Old-growth forests are systems created by older trees. They can differ from younger forests by having large accumulations of woody material, increased canopy layers, species composition and ecosystem function, according to a 1994 U.S. Forest Service definition. These forests store large amounts of carbon, increase biodiversity, produce clean water and reduce wildfire risks.

The proposal follows an Executive Order signed by President Joe Biden in April 2022, which directed his administration to conserve old-growth forests.

Hikers in Pisgah National Forest.

“The agency is telling us ‘this is where we want to go in the future and this is who we want to be,’” Senior Attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center Sam Evans told the Citizen Times Dec. 19.

“We want protecting old-growth to be a big part of the job of the forest service. I can't overstate how important that is. We've been waiting on that for a long time.”

The USDA plans to amend each of the nation’s individual forest management plans, which are the planning documents for national forests and grasslands. As part of these amendments, national forests will need to create or adopt a strategy for old-growth forest conservation. The amendments direct national forests to maintain and improve old-growth forests over time.

The U.S. Forest Service released a final version of the Pisgah-Nantahala Land Management Plan Feb. 17 after more than a decade of work to revise it.

Critically, the amendments would create standards for protecting old-growth forests, including restricting vegetation management, like logging, from “degrading or impairing the composition structure or ecological processes in a manner that prevents the long-term persistence of old-growth forest conditions within the plan area.”

Forest managers can manage vegetation for the purpose of proactive stewardship for facilitating the growth or proliferation of old-growth forests.

The Big Ivy area of Pisgah National Forest in Buncombe County.

The proposed amendments will now face a multi-stage review process, during which the public will have an opportunity to solicit input and the USFS will conduct an environmental impact study. This review process will begin with a public comment period. Commenters can submit their opinions through a portal on the USFS website.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Forest Service conducted a study that found that old-growth forests represent 18% of all forested lands managed USFS and the Bureau of Land Management. North Carolina’s four national forests comprise 1.25 million acres of public lands.

More: Asheville groups threaten to sue US Forest Service over Endangered Species Act violation

More: Pisgah, Nantahala plan done: Forest service still seeking feedback, logging fears remain

Between fires and lawsuits, it has been a busy year for North Carolina’s national forests.

Wildfires burned across WNC during the fall, including in the Pisgah and Nantahala national forests.

In July, six conservation groups threatened to sue the U.S. Forest Service for violating the Endangered Species Act regarding the Nantahala-Pisgah National Forest Land Management Plan finalized in February. The organizations said that the logging proposal in the land management plan would impact six protected bat species. They gave the Forest Service 60 days to address their concerns. That period has expired and the groups are eligible to sue.

Mitchell Black covers Buncombe County and health care for the Citizen Times. Email him at mblack@citizentimes.com or follow him on Twitter @MitchABlack. Please help support local journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

STICK TO 2050

Canada says all cars and trucks must be zero emission by 2035, industry unhappy
TRANSITION TO HYBRID POSSIBLE BY THEN

David Ljunggren
Tue, December 19, 2023 

 Cars are pictured in traffic on Capitale highway in Quebec City

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada on Tuesday released final regulations mandating that all passenger cars, SUVs, crossovers and light trucks sold by 2035 must be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), part of the government's overall plan to combat climate change.

ZEVs must make up at least 20% of all cars sold by 2026 and at least 60% by 2030. Industry officials say electric vehicles (EVs) represented 12.1% of new vehicle sales in the third quarter of 2023.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said the regulations provided industry with the certainty it needed to address the issue of limited availability of EVs.

"(This) ensures Canadians have access to our fair share of the global supply of these vehicles," he told a televised news conference in Toronto.

Transportation accounts for about 22% of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions.

The rules are similar to those adopted by California, which says 100% of new cars sold in 2035 must be plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), EVs or powered by hydrogen fuel cell. A total of 17 U.S. states have agreed to adopt the regulations.

Global EV sales now make up about 13% of all vehicle sales and are likely to rise to between 40%-45% of the market by the end of the decade, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

According to the data platform Statista, Tesla accounted for 36.7% of EV sales in Canada in 2022, with Hyundai in second place with 11.1%.

The Canadian automobile industry says the regulations are too ambitious, noting the higher cost of electric vehicles.

It also complains that the charging network is incomplete, especially in rural areas. Canada, the world's second largest country, has a population of just 40 million people.

"Achieving higher ZEV sales levels depends on favorable market conditions, stronger consumer purchase incentives ... widespread charging infrastructure (and) expanded grid capacity," said Brian Kingston, President of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association.

The government's charging effort is focused on building EV ports in populous public areas and multi-family residential buildings, which experts warn may not be enough to rapidly increase adoption.

In an effort to address complaints that EVs are impractical in remote and northern areas, where cold conditions can cut the efficiency of batteries, PHEVs with an all-electric range of 80 km or more will remain eligible for sale in 2035 and beyond.

Canada has missed every emissions reduction target it has ever set. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says fighting climate change is one of his Liberal government's top priorities.

His emissions reduction plan is flawed and will not reach the target of cutting greenhouse gas output by 40% to 45% below the 2005 level by 2030, a top watchdog said last month.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by David Gregorio)

Canada announces deal to backstop carbon credit prices for Entropy CCS project

CCS C02 USED FOR FRACKING

Wed, December 20, 2023 
By Nia Williams

Dec 20 (Reuters) - The Canada Growth Fund (CGF), a federal clean-tech financing agency, on Wednesday said it would invest C$200 million ($149.72 million) in carbon capture and storage developer Entropy Inc and backstop carbon credit prices for the first time.

Under the terms of the 15-year deal, known as a carbon credit offtake (CCO) commitment, the CGF has agreed to buy up to 1 million tonnes a year of carbon credits generated by Calgary-based Entropy, a subsidiary of oil and gas producer Advantage Energy.

The initial commitment will enable Entropy to sell up to 185,000 tonnes a year of credits, generated by the second phase of a carbon capture and storage project at Advantage's Glacier gas plant in Alberta, to the CGF at a price of C$86.50 per tonne.

Last year the company also agreed a C$300 million investment deal with infrastructure firm Brookfield.

"By creating a large-scale CCO to guarantee long-term carbon pricing and adding C$200 million to our existing Brookfield funding for third-party projects, Entropy has a clear path to accelerating growth and reducing emissions, right here at home," Entropy CEO Mike Belenkie said in a statement.

The CGF is a C$15 billion body set up last year by Canada's Finance Ministry to help attract private investment in clean tech by mitigating financing risks.

Ottawa has been working on ways to provide carbon price certainty to firms looking to invest in carbon capture and storage to reduce their emissions, in addition to providing investment tax credits.

Canada is the world's fourth-largest crude producer and the oil and gas sector is its highest-polluting industry, accounting for more than a quarter of all emissions.

National Bank analysts said the deal was a "massive milestone" for Entropy. Dale Beugin, executive vice president with the Canadian Climate Institute, said the investment will help minimize risk in clean growth projects and make carbon pricing work better in Canada.

"By guaranteeing value for Entropy Inc's carbon credits, this investment drives emissions reductions, without crowding out private investment," Beugin said.

($1 = 1.3358 Canadian dollars) (Reporting by Nia Williams; Editing by Michael Perry)