Why river management is so crucial to protecting one of world’s most important wetlands
A major new study led by Swansea University has shown that upstream river management rather than local rainfall is the primary driver of one of the world's most important wetlands
Swansea University
image:
A boat stranded on dried-out marshland in the Mesopotamian Marshes, southern Iraq, due to drought.
view moreCredit: Akram Alqaraghuli
A major new study led by Swansea University has shown that upstream river management rather than local rainfall is the primary driver of one of the world's most important wetlands.
The future of Iraq's Mesopotamian Marshes depends far more on the water flowing from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers than on local rainfall, according to new research published in Nature Scientific Reports, analysing more than two decades of satellite observations.
The Mesopotamian Marshes, located in southern Iraq, are one of the most important wetland regions in the world, designated a UNESCO world heritage site, and home to unique civilisation and biodiversity.
Despite extensive restoration efforts following the 2003 reflooding of the marshes, the ecosystem remains under increasing pressure from climate change, upstream dam construction, and regional water management.
In the new study, researchers examined changes in vegetation and surface water across the marshes from 2000 to 2023 using multiple satellite datasets alongside rainfall and river flow records. The analysis combined data from NASA MODIS, EU Copernicus Sentinel-2, JRC Global Surface Water, as well as streamflow and precipitation observations to identify the factors controlling the marshes' long-term health.
The researchers found that:
- While both vegetation and surface water generally increased over the study period following restoration, these gains were repeatedly interrupted by severe declines. The most dramatic losses occurred during 2008–2009 and 2022–2023, coinciding with regional droughts, upstream dam operations, and water management decisions;
- River flow rather than local rainfall is the dominant factor determining the extent of marsh vegetation. Higher streamflow was strongly associated with healthier vegetation, whereas local precipitation showed no significant influence; and,
- There is a strong relationship between vegetation and temperature. Areas with more marsh vegetation experienced cooler land surface temperatures, while vegetation loss was followed by rising temperatures. This suggests a positive feedback loop in which declining vegetation leads to hotter surface conditions, which can further stress the wetland ecosystem.
The findings underscore the importance of international cooperation among countries sharing the Tigris-Euphrates river system to ensure sufficient water reaches the marshes during periods of drought.
Lead author Akram Alqaraghuli, who is completing a PhD at the Global Environmental Modelling and Earth Observation (GEMEO) group within Swansea University’s Department of Geography, said: “Our results show that maintaining river flows is essential for preserving the Mesopotamian Marshes, and also the key role of the wetlands in maintaining temperature in the region.”
Professor Peter North, co-author and supervisor of the research said: “Long-term satellite records are increasingly allowing us to separate human intervention from climate impact on the environment. This study can contribute to management of one of the world’s key resources and highlights the need for international cooperation.”
The project has support from the Iraq Government, Google, UK NERC National Centre of Earth Observation, and the UK Wildlife and Wetlands Trust (WWT).
Journal
Scientific Reports
Method of Research
Observational study
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
The impact of climate factors and surface water management on the Mesopotamian Marshes for the period 2000–2023
Article Publication Date
15-Jul-2026
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