WWIII

Southeast Asian diplomats meet with China as friction mounts over Beijing’s sweeping maritime claims

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

July 26, 2024 

• 

Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, right chats with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo as they leave after the ASEAN Post Ministerial Conference with Japan at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Vientiane, Laos, July 26, 2024. (AP Photo)

VIENTIANE, Laos--Top diplomats from Southeast Asia met Friday morning in Vientiane with China’s Foreign Minister for talks that come as friction continues to escalate over Beijing’s growing effort to press its sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Several members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation have disputes with China, which has led to direct confrontations that many worry could lead to broader conflict.

“One wrong step in the South China Sea will turn a small fire into a terrible firestorm,” said Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi ahead of the talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have conflicts with China over its claims of sovereignty over virtually all of the South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for shipping. Indonesia has also expressed concern about what it sees as Beijing’s encroachment on its exclusive economic zone.

The United States and its allies, meanwhile, have been regularly conducting military exercises and patrols in the area to assert their “free and open Indo-Pacific” policy, including the right to navigate international waters — drawing criticism from China.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was to arrive Saturday to attend the ASEAN meetings and was expected to meet with Wang on the sidelines for bilateral talks.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is also attending the meetings, and already held direct talks with Wang.

China is a key ally of Russia’s in its war against Ukraine, and Wang emphasized the “deepening strategic coordination” between the two nations, China’s Xinhua news agency reported.

This year, tensions between the Philippines — an American treaty ally —- and China have escalated. In June, a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship collided near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, sparking alarm.

The ASEAN countries — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — emphasized in their opening meetings Thursday that it’s important they don’t get drawn in as both China and the U.S. look to expand their influence.

Following the talks, Marsudi said the group stressed that the ten-member regional bloc should not be a proxy for any power, otherwise “it will be difficult for ASEAN to become an anchor for regional stability and peace.”

There were no immediate details available about Friday morning’s talks between Wang and the ASEAN foreign ministers.

After Thursday night’s talks, however, Thai foreign minister Maris Sangiampongsa said the group had discussed the importance of producing the South China Sea code of conduct that it has been working on for some time with China, and planned further talks with China on the matter.

He said that the Philippines informed in the meeting that they have been trying to engage with China, which is considered a good sign.

China and the Philippines said Sunday they had reached a deal that they hope will end the confrontations, aiming to establish a mutually acceptable arrangement for the disputed area without conceding either side’s territorial claims.

There are divisions within ASEAN on how to deal with China’s maritime claims and the Philippines has been critical over a perceived lack of support from the bloc.

In Thursday’s talks, the Philippines pushed for the inclusion of June’s collision in the joint communique to be issued at the end of the meetings. Cambodia and Laos, which are close to China, opposed the wording, according to a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who was involved in closed-door negotiations and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter freely.

Manila’s proposal stating that a recent incident in the South China Sea caused “damage to properties” and “caused injuries” without mentioning specific details like the name of the shoal and the contending state forces, the diplomat said.

The increasingly violent civil war in ASEAN member state Myanmar is also one of the main issues being taken up, the group supported Thailand taking a broader role, Thailand’s Maris said.

Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar, has already been involved in providing humanitarian assistance.

The country initiated its first delivery of aid to Myanmar in March from the northern province of Tak. It was said to be distributed in Kayin state to approximately 20,000 out of millions of people displaced by fighting.

Maris announced that another $250,000 will be donated to the ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management that is overseeing a plan to deliver aid into Myanmar.

The army in Myanmar ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and suppressed widespread nonviolent protests that sought a return to democratic rule, leading to increasing violence and a humanitarian crisis.

The ASEAN group has been pushing its so-called “five-point consensus” for peace, but the military leadership in Myanmar has so far ignored the plan, raising questions about the bloc’s efficiency and credibility.

It calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels, and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties.

Myanmar has been blocked from sending political representatives to the ASEAN meetings and is instead represented by Aung Kyaw Moe, the permanent secretary of Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry.

China, which also shares a long border with Myanmar, also plays an important role in that it that it supports the military regime while also maintaining close contacts with several of the powerful ethnic armed groups that are currently fighting against it.

In his opening statement ahead of talks between ASEAN and China, Aung Kyaw Moe had effusive praise for Beijing, pledging that the bloc would continue to work to deepen cooperation with China in all areas.

GENDER APARTHEID CHATTEL SLAVERY

EU welcomes OSCE report on Afghanistan, highlights plight of Afghan women

• By Amu TV
• 
  Print

Share via Email

The European Union has welcomed the report from the OSCE Secretary General on Afghanistan, emphasizing the vulnerability of Afghan women.

“The OSCE, with its comprehensive concept of security and extensive experience in Central Asia, is playing a crucial role in mitigating risks, addressing vulnerabilities, and pursuing opportunities related to the situation in Afghanistan,” the E.U. said in a statement.

The statement expressed grave concern over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and severe human rights violations by the Taliban, particularly against women. It noted that women and girls continue to be excluded from public life and denied their basic rights, including education, work, and freedom of movement.

“The institutionalization of large-scale and systematic gender-based discrimination by the Taliban increasingly places women and girls in Afghanistan, as well as Afghan society as a whole, in an extremely vulnerable position,” the E.U. said, citing the OSCE report.

The E.U. warned that these systemic violations against women and girls may amount to gender persecution, a crime against humanity under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, of which Afghanistan is a state party.

“The full respect for the human rights and fundamental freedoms of women and girls and their equal and meaningful participation in society are not only goals in themselves but also prerequisites for sustainable economic and political development, social cohesion, stability, and peace,” the statement added.

The E.U. reiterated its condemnation of the Taliban’s systematic human rights violations and abuses and called on the group to respect all human rights, especially those of women, girls, and minorities, including ethnic and religious groups.

The statement also highlighted the cooperation between the E.U. and the OSCE on an E.U.-funded project aimed at stabilizing Tajikistan’s southern border region with Afghanistan.

Volunteers help migrants reverse water trauma in Spain's Canaries


26 July 2024 - 

BY BORJA SUAREZ

Mamadou M Bathily, a 24-year-old migrant from Mali, takes part in the activity organized by the NGO ProemAID's "Water Project" to overcome the traumatic experience of a dangerous sea crossing, on Las Teresitas beach in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain, July 24, 2024.

Image: REUTERS/Borja Suarez

Smiling broadly, perhaps to hide their nervousness, dozens of young African migrants wearing swimming goggles took their first strokes and exhaled into knee-deep water on a Tenerife beach, led by Spanish volunteer instructors.

Many are suffering from water trauma after a perilous crossing to the Canary Islands from countries such as Senegal or Mauritania crammed into precarious boats. Some barely survived and others lost family members or friends to the ocean.

"There are people who come with a terrible fear that you see when they get into the water holding your hand as if clinging to life," said Jorge Balcazar, coordinator of Project Agua at the rescue charity Proemaid, saying some people had spent up to 15 days at sea.

The number of migrants arriving irregularly by sea to the archipelago soared by 160% between January and July 15 from a year ago to almost 20,000 people, representing the bulk of such arrivals by sea to Spain, according to Spain's interior ministry.

Migration rights group Walking Borders said a report last report that nearly 5,000 migrants, an unprecedented number, have died at sea in the same period on that route.

Migrants take part in the activity organized by the NGO ProemAID's "Water Project" to overcome the traumatic experience of a dangerous sea crossing.
Image: Borja Suarez

Migrants rest after taking part in the activity organized by the NGO ProemAID's "Water Project" to overcome the traumatic experience of a dangerous sea crossing, on Las Teresitas beach in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, Spain, July 24, 2024.
Image: REUTERS/Borja Suarez

"I wouldn’t do it again. It's very difficult, very, very dangerous. It's a risk we took, because we didn’t have a choice. It’s tough in Mali," said Mamadou M Bathily, a 24-year-old trained IT specialist, who came to Tenerife a week ago via Senegal along with 215 others.

The volunteers work with groups of 35-40 people and hope to train as many as 450 during the summer, said Francisco Navarro, of another non-profit, ACCEM.

Proemaid's Balcazar said the volunteers were working with both non-swimmers and people with some water experience to "remove or reverse that trauma".

"The truth is that in a few sessions you see changes and their gratitude, which gives us a huge boost of energy."

Reuters

A migrant takes part in the activity organized by the NGO ProemAID's "Water Project" to overcome the traumatic experience of a dangerous sea crossing, on Las Teresitas beach in Santa Cruz De Tenerife, Spain, July 24, 2024.
Image: REUTERS/Borja Suarez

Mamadou M Bathily, a 24-year-old migrant from Mali, takes part in the activity organized by the NGO ProemAID's "Water Project" to overcome the traumatic experience of a dangerous sea crossing, on Las Teresitas beach in Santa Cruz De Tenerife, Spain, July 24, 2024.
Image: REUTERS/Borja Suarez

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

20,000 workers given weeks to leave Philippines after ban on gambling operations linked to scams

By the Asia-Pacific Newsroom with wires
Posted 1h ago1 hours ago

Scam centres have mushroomed across South-East Asia, with crime syndicates luring, kidnapping or coercing workers into predatory online activity.(AFP: Jam Sta Rosa)

In short:

An estimated 20,000 mostly Chinese foreign workers have been told to leave the Philippines after the president banned offshore gambling operations.

Amid strained relations over the South China Sea, the Chinese embassy gave the move the thumbs up.

What's next?

There are concerns the operations will go underground or simply relocate elsewhere.

The Philippines has ordered an estimated 20,000 foreigners working in mostly Chinese-owned offshore gambling firms to leave the country within 60 days.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Monday banned the Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) for their alleged links to crimes, human trafficking and financial scams, and gave the gaming regulator until the end of the year to shut the businesses down.

"Disguising as legitimate entities, their operations have ventured into illicit areas furthest from gaming such as financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, even murder," Mr Marcos said in his address.

"The grave abuse and disrespect to our system of laws must stop."

Mr Marcos's order in his state-of-the-nation address came amid an ongoing government crackdown backed by Beijing that has led to the shutting down of several sprawling complexes.

Thousands of Chinese, Vietnamese and other nationals mostly from South-East Asia have been illegally recruited with promises of high salaries but later forced to work in dismal conditions and threatened with severe harm if they disobeyed orders or tried to escape.

Philippine immigration chief Norman Tansingco said in a statement that foreign workers had 59 days to leave the country.

Most of the people expected to be affected by the order are Chinese citizens.

Workers who stay in the country beyond the two-month period will be deported, Mr Tansingco added

.
Philippine authorities have rescued thousands of foreigners trafficked into online scam operations.(AFP: Handout/Philippine National Police Anti-Cybercrime Group)

A 'major step'

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime deputy regional representative for South-East Asia and the Pacific Benedikt Hofmann told the ABC the ban was a "major step".

"The Philippines' move to ban POGOs will certainly have an impact as it removes the thin layer of legality used by many illegal operators to shield themselves from scrutiny and enforcement," Mr Hofmann said.

"At the same time, scam centres and other criminal activities will push further underground, and we are expecting to also see a movement to other parts of the region — and beyond — to places with less enforcement pressure and weaker governance frameworks."

The crackdown on hundreds of illegal POGOs involved in crimes such as scams and human trafficking would continue, the Presidential Anti-Organised Crime Commission said.

POGOs emerged in 2016 and boomed in just a few years as companies capitalised on liberal laws to target customers in China, where gambling is banned.

At their peak, some 300 POGOs operated in the Philippines, but the coronavirus pandemic and tighter tax rules forced many to relocate or go underground.

Only 42, mostly Chinese, firms have kept their licenses, directly and indirectly employing around 63,000 Filipino and foreign workers.

Alejandro Tengco, chairman of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, said the challenge for law enforcers was to prevent the firms from going underground.

Authorities have warned that scams are a growing problem across the globe.(ABC News: Nicholas McElroy)

A rare compliment from China

Some analysts said the ban might help ease tensions with Beijing over the disputed South China Sea.

"This might lead to an improvement in Philippine and China relations," said Renato Cruz De Castro, an international affairs analyst at De La Salle University in Manila.

Relations between China and the Philippines under Marcos have been strained since he allowed an expanded US military presence in the country under a 2014 defence pact and hostilities between their forces started to flare in the disputed South China Sea last year.

Scammer reveals insider tricks

Inside a secret scam factory capable of swindling tens of thousands of people at a time. But one scammer has a secret plan that could shut the whole syndicate down.

A Philippine campaign to expose China's aggressive actions in the disputed waters through the press to gain international support has sparked a scathing war of words.

On Thursday, China issued a rare compliment to the Marcos administration for the order, which came amid an ongoing government crackdown backed by Beijing.

"We believe this decision echoes the call of the Philippine people and serves the common interests of people of both countries," a Chinese Embassy statement said.

"China is ready to continue its strong law enforcement cooperation with the Philippines and better protect the safety and wellbeing of the two peoples."

The Chinese Embassy statement, attributed to an unnamed spokesperson, stated that China prohibits all forms of gambling and added that the Chinese government has cracked down on Chinese citizens engaging in overseas gambling businesses including the POGOs.

"POGO breeds serious crimes and gravely undermines the interests of both Philippine and Chinese peoples," the Chinese Embassy said.

He came in like a wrecking ball

Orbán’s recent diplomatic antics have rattled the EU. But member states have the chance to end Hungary’s Presidency within weeks — if they want to

Canva / European Union / IPS JournalWith his erratic behaviour, Orbán wants to show that there are no consequences for repeatedly breaching EU rules and undermining EU positions.


EUROPEAN INTEGRATION 17.07.2024 | Daniel Hegedüs

Prime Minister Viktor Orbán kicked off Hungary’s six-month Presidency of the Council of the EU with diplomatic moves that shocked the country’s EU and NATO partners. He began by going to Kyiv for his first bilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. There were no tangible results on disputes between the two countries, but Ukraine pledged to address Hungary’s concerns related to the status of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia and the treatment of Hungarian companies. This led to cautious optimism regarding a rapprochement and a moderate pro-Western turn in Hungary’s foreign policy.

A few days later, however, Orbán made a snap visit to Moscow that was not coordinated with Hungary’s EU and NATO partners or Ukraine. This was only the first move that revealed his intention to abuse the Council Presidency by pretending to speak in the name of the EU, sowing confusion and harming EU foreign policy, and advancing the interests of Russia and the West’s other illiberal rivals.
In clear ignorance of his lack of mandate

The EU treaties make it clear that the government holding the Council Presidency does not represent the EU in external affairs. This is the prerogative of the president of the European Council, the president of the European Commission, and the high representative for the common foreign and security policy. Still, Orbán has used the logo of Hungary’s Council Presidency during his trips so far, repeatedly alluded to his position at the helm of the council and did not contradict President Vladimir Putin when he announced that he represented the EU during their meeting. Russian state propaganda also heavily exploited Orbán’s visit and narrative, which perfectly matched the Kremlin’s talking points.

Orbán framed his Moscow trip as the next stage of his ‘peace mission’ after going to Kyiv, when, in fact, he clearly broke with the EU’s position of not negotiating about Ukraine without Ukraine and kept the visit secret from Kyiv. European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the current and future high representatives, Josep Borrell and Kaja Kallas, criticised the trip, underlining Orbán’s lack of an EU mandate and that the presidency does not represent the EU.

Orbán went directly from Russia to Azerbaijan to attend the informal summit of the Organization of Turkic States. From an EU perspective, the trip raised questions related to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Cyprus as representatives of the unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus were also present. This was brought up by Borrell as well as by the co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) political group, Nicola Procaccini from Fratelli d’Italia. This shows Orbán’s deteriorating relations not only with the EU mainstream but also with the ECR and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who were considered his allies before the recent European Parliament elections.


With his erratic behaviour and multivector foreign policy, Orbán wants to show that there are no consequences for repeatedly breaching EU rules and undermining EU positions, inviting ridicule for the EU.

From Baku, Orbán then flew to Beijing to meet President Xi Jinping. There, he praised China’s central role in and commitment to achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine while remaining silent on Xi’s decision to stay away from the Geneva peace talks in June. From China, Orbán travelled to the NATO summit in the United States, where he also met Donald Trump.

All of this was only the beginning. Throughout the rest of Hungary’s Council Presidency, there will be more uncoordinated visits during which Orbán will disregard and damage EU positions — to Trump in the United States, to Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, and to Georgia and Moldova as they face tense elections in the fall.

As predicted, Orbán is showing that he will use the presidency for foreign policy trolling — not for superficial annoyance and disruption but in a strategic way. With his post-communist mindset, he has internalised that the turning point in the demise of empires and supranational institutions is when they start being a laughing stock. That is why he seeks to ridicule the EU.

With his erratic behaviour and multivector foreign policy, Orbán wants to show that there are no consequences for repeatedly breaching EU rules and undermining EU positions. This invites ridicule for the EU – internally and externally – by showing it is incapable of maintaining unity and that a rogue member state can act as a wrecking ball without suffering any negative consequences. One key question is why, witnessing this, should other countries – such as Belarus, Georgia and Serbia, to mention only some of its neighbours – heed what the EU says.
What can the rest of the EU do?

The most important strategic task facing the EU is to attach negative consequences to Orbán’s behaviour. Right now, it is the other member states and the European Council that should do this, given that it will take months for the next European Commission and the new European Parliament to be fully operational. And, crucially, the reaction of member states is what matters to Orbán, given his disdain for supranational EU institutions.

The cancellation of Hungary’s EU Council Presidency has been discussed numerous times over the past year. In June 2023, the European Parliament even adopted a resolution questioning the country’s ability to fulfil the tasks of the presidency constructively and in good faith. The Meijers Committee, a prestigious lawyers’ organisation in the Netherlands, has identified a legal way to deprive Orbán of the presidency.


Member states will never have a better window of opportunity to act — and they need to so now.

The other member states can cut Hungary’s presidency short by applying the legal tools identified by the committee to bring forward Poland’s presidency from 1 January 2025 to 1 September or sooner. In parallel, they should conclude the first stage of the Article 7 procedure against Hungary to justify breaking with the treaty-based principle of ‘equal rotation’ of the presidency.

In order to achieve this, the president of the European Council should file a motion on the basis of Article 236 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union to change the calendar of the rotating presidency. The European Council members could then change the starting date of Poland’s presidency to August or September through a simple qualified majority vote.

Concerning the Article 7 procedure, member states should file a motion to the Council Secretariat to put on the agenda of the next General Affairs Council meeting a vote about ‘the existence of a clear risk of a serious breach to EU values’ in Hungary according to Article 7(1) of the Treaty on European Union. This decision would require a four-fifths majority.

Both initiatives should ideally be led by France, Germany and Poland, supported by a large group of member states including the Baltic countries and countries from Central and Eastern Europe, like Czechia, Romania and Slovenia.

Reality is proving wrong the experts who argued that Hungary’s presidency could only do very limited damage to the EU.

Member states will never have a better window of opportunity to act — and they need to so now. In the radical-right part of the EU’s political spectrum, the Meloni-Orbán relationship is strained, with the Hungarian leader’s new Patriots for Europe political group luring ECR members. And the coming elections in Austria and Czechia will only bring more Orbán allies into power.

If they deliver an appropriate reply to Orbán’s trolling and ridiculing of the EU, member states can end Hungary’s Council Presidency within weeks. All that is needed is proper diplomacy and majority building in the European Council.

Reality is proving wrong the experts who argued that Hungary’s presidency could only do very limited damage to the EU. For those who would still rather muddle through, the lesson from the last few days is that they should be prepared for more from Orbán.

© Project Syndicate

Daniel Hegedüs

Berlin

Daniel Hegedüs is a Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund. He writes and speaks extensively on populism and democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe, and the European and foreign affairs of the Visegrad countries. 

Relentless resistance
As protests in Kenya enter their second month, the call for justice echoes across the region. How realistic is the risk of a regional spill over?

picture alliance / Anadolu | Gerald AndersonA protestor in Nairobi, holding the Kenyan flag and a sign saying ‘A change must come’.


DEMOCRACY AND SOCIETY 19.07.2024 | Zikora Ibeh

In yet another day of protests, Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, filled up with smoke amid loud explosions on Tuesday 16 July 2024, as heavily armed police fired tear gas and live rounds at protesters waving the national flag and chanting anti-government slogans. Several pictures and videos have surfaced on X depicting police clashing with protesters. At least one shows a female journalist, identified as Catherine Wanjeri Kariuki, lying on the ground and writhing in pain after being shot while covering the protest in Nakuru, northwest of Nairobi.

Since last month, a wave of deadly protests has swept through the East African country best known internationally for its breath-taking safaris and lush countryside. Sparked by President William Ruto’s controversial Finance Bill, which sought to impose additional taxes on Kenyans already weighed down by a high cost of living, the youth-driven protests have lasted over a month now despite a brutal crackdown.

As the protests in Kenya continue, revealing widespread disillusionment with the current state of affairs, similar unrest could soon erupt across the region. After all, the challenges facing Kenya are largely mirrored in other African nations.


Kenya’s GenZ has vowed not to back down from the protests until Ruto resigns.

According to Kenya’s National Commission on Human Rights, at least 39 demonstrators have been killed and more than 300 arrested since 18 June, when the protests started. There have also been reports of abductions and disappearances of activists and bloggers associated with the protests. The repression peaked on 25 June when irate protesters stormed the parliament in Nairobi, sending lawmakers scurrying into a basement. Late that evening, a livid President Ruto appeared on television to denounce the protesters as ‘criminals’ and vowed ‘a full, effective and expeditious response to today’s treasonous events’ — setting the stage for further abuses by the police and the army now deployed in the streets.

But if Ruto thought the crackdown would quell the protests, the opposite has happened as the uprising, leaderless and using social media platforms to mobilise for political discussions and street actions, has continued. This is despite the withdrawal of the Finance Bill and other concessions to pacify the movement. Last week, Ruto announced the resignation of Kenya’s Police Inspector General, following public condemnation of the violent actions of officers towards protesters. Only the day before, the president fired his entire cabinet, save for the foreign minister, Musalia Mudavadi. But Kenya’s GenZ has vowed not to back down from the protests until Ruto himself resigns.
Love abroad, scorn at home

Over the past two years, Ruto has managed to raise his profile abroad while deepening Kenya’s historic partnership with the West in joint counter-insurgency operations against al-Shabaab in Somalia and other security threats in the region. In an unprecedented move last month, Washington named Kenya ‘a major non-NATO ally’, while hundreds of Kenyan police officers were deployed to Haiti to lead a foreign mission to restore order.

But while he is much loved abroad, at home, the unfolding protests have shaken Ruto’s administration to its core. Kenya’s economy is reeling from a polycrisis consisting of high inflation, mounting public debt and the impact of a prolonged drought in 2022 that disrupted the country’s food supply.

When Ruto, now christened ‘Zakayo’ (Swahili for the biblical character Zacchaeus, who was a tax collector), came to power just two years ago, there was much expectation and hope among the country’s poor. But the president is doing the exact opposite of what he had promised. ‘His government’s actions have only deepened the disillusionment and hardship of ordinary citizens’, says Edgar Wabwire, a communications expert who was abducted by the police for his role in the protest.


At least 7.8 million of Kenya’s 56 million people live in extreme poverty, most of them in rural areas.

Ruto is criticised for ‘operating the transparency of a brick wall’ and implementing International Monetary Fund (IMF) policies that have ‘only benefitted the West and Kenya’s privileged elite, while leaving ordinary people grappling with poverty and unemployment’, adds Kenyan pan-Africanist Muoki Abel.

The now-abandoned Finance Bill is part of an IMF-mandated reform to generate an additional $2.7 billion in tax income to plug Kenya’s budget deficit by introducing or raising taxes on a range of everyday goods and services, including bread, cooking oil, internet data, fuel, bank transfers, sanitary pads and diapers. But for a population already struggling to get by, the new tax is like a poisoned chalice.

At least 7.8 million of Kenya’s 56 million people live in extreme poverty, most of them in rural areas. Young people, who make up at least 80 per cent of Kenya’s population, are among the hardest hit. While the overall unemployment rate in Kenya is at 12.7 per cent, youth unemployment is the highest at 67 per cent, according to the country’s Federation of Employers. In this desperate circumstance, half-measures are not enough. What Kenya needs are comprehensive, transformative measures that tackle the root causes of poverty and unemployment in the country and ultimately redistribute wealth more equitably.
Risk of regional spill over

As Kenya’s protests continue to flare, chances are that similar movements could break out in any country across the region, where, just like Ruto, state authorities face the dilemma of raising taxes and trading off much-needed social investments in critical sectors to service burgeoning public debts.

According to the IMF, the average debt ratio in sub-Saharan Africa has almost doubled between 2010 and 2022, from 30 per cent of GDP to almost 60 per cent. The region’s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, have each seen their debt soar above the sub-Saharan Africa average of 43.7 per cent.

Repaying these debts has also become much more expensive. In 2022, an estimated 96 per cent of Nigeria’s revenue went towards interest payments, prompting the government to withdraw fuel subsidies and devalue the national currency last year as part of a series of IMF-mandated austerity measures to raise revenue and cut spending.

But just as in Kenya, the result is high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis that has ushered in unprecedented hunger in the oil-producing country, prompting citizens and the country’s labour union to embark on hunger protests.


Civil society experts contend that the IMF’s structural adjustment programmes for Africa do more harm than good by exacerbating existing economic and social pressures.

Civil society experts contend that the IMF’s structural adjustment programmes for Africa do more harm than good by exacerbating existing economic and social pressures. ‘In the context of underdeveloped nations, forcing states to slash expenditure on public services such as water, education and health is a recipe for disaster’, says Akinbode Oluwafemi, Executive Director of Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa. ‘The exploitative nature of the IMF’s programmes is sharply reflected in the way they force governments to prioritise debt repayment and fiscal austerity over the well-being of their citizens. It is no surprise that the outcomes of these programmes manifest themselves as uprisings and social unrest’, he adds.

Sadly, despite the accumulation of massive public debts, corruption has stymied development and growth in Africa. Critics maintain that for every dollar of foreign borrowing, at least 50 cents leave the borrowing country. As a result, sub-Saharan Africa has seen an exodus of more than $700 billion in capital flight since 1970, with some funds ending up in the very banks that issued the loans to African governments in the first place.

To achieve this criminal heist, Africa’s elites act as both enablers and beneficiaries of the massive siphoning off of resources. Consequently, when they are forced to implement harsh revenue-raising policies to repay these debts, they often find themselves isolated and lacking public support. This scenario has played out for Kenya’s Ruto, just as for Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose administration is bracing for another round of potential nationwide unrest next month as youth groups and civil society organisations in the country rally for 10 days of rage under the hashtag #EndBadGovernance.

Mobilisations for the forthcoming demonstrations have seen citizens congregate for political discussions on X Spaces and applaud young protesting Kenyans for remaining resolute and offering inspiration even in the face of state brutality. As Abel notes: ‘Kenyans are already leading the way in reclaiming their government. It is time for other Africans to rise up and do the same.’

© Project Syndicate

Zikora Ibeh

Zikora Ibeh is a researcher, columnist, podcaster and development advocate with a passion for social justice and gender equity. She works to make a difference in society through public policy advocacy, action research and media advocacy.

A plea for political economy

Reviving the tradition of political economy could yield the tools needed to study – and perhaps finally understand – our rapidly changing world

ECONOMY AND ECOLOGY 22.07.2024 | Kaushik Basu

Pexels

The world economy is at a turning point. As global supply chains face increasingly frequent disruptions, the structures underpinning markets and international trade are unravelling, leading to economic instability which, in turn, is spilling over into other domains and fuelling conflict and political polarisation.

In the face of these challenges, it is worth asking why, despite an unprecedented influx of data, mainstream economic thinking and policymaking appear to be failing. I believe that the problem lies in the lack of theoretical research, particularly when it comes to exploring overarching ideas needed to connect and interpret seemingly disparate data points and trends.

The growing backlash against economic theory in recent years has tended to focus on the field’s reliance on developing mathematical models for their own sake rather than to inform and improve public policy. Many argue that instead of trying to imitate physics, economists should emphasise data-based empirical analysis. But while I do not doubt the importance of collecting data and addressing urgent social issues, major turning points demand that we direct our attention to more fundamental issues and consider the need for an economic paradigm shift. History is rife with such shifts. The Industrial Revolution, for example, was a period of rapid technological innovation that enhanced our ability to produce goods but also changed the rules of the game, as feudalism gave way to wage labour and large-scale factory production. Children were put to work on the shop floor, and the skies darkened with smoke and pollution.


After Walras’s work laid the foundations for neoclassical economics, mathematical principles became integral to public policy.

Initially, no one understood how this new industrial economy worked. But the Industrial Revolution coincided with some of the biggest breakthroughs in economic theory, from Adam Smith’s seminal The Wealth of Nations in 1776 to Léon Walras’s Elements of Pure Economics in 1874. These pioneering works, in turn, led to innovative and necessary policy interventions, such as Britain’s introduction of income tax in 1842 and the passage of the US Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. Crucially, the burgeoning discipline was not yet synonymous with mathematical modelling, which is why both Smith’s lucid, mathematics-free analyses of political economy and Walras’s mathematical work were able to transform economic theory and provide invaluable insights into the new paradigm that emerged during the Industrial Revolution.

After Walras’s work laid the foundations for neoclassical economics, mathematical principles became integral to public policy. For a while, this approach worked well. But the neoclassical revolution assumed perfect information, and this became embedded in the discipline, even though most economists – except for a few hardliners – knew it was a chimera. By the early 1970s, Nobel laureate economists George Akerlof, Joseph Stiglitz, and Michael Spence demonstrated that information is not just imperfect but asymmetric, and that this had more dramatic consequences than people had realised. Corporations know more about the products they sell than buyers do, just as used-car dealers know more than their customers about the vehicles they sell. These economists’ ground-breaking work upended some of neoclassical economics’ fundamental assumptions, leading to a paradigm shift that provided new insights into how to design public policies to protect consumers and workers from exploitation.


With its separation from the study of politics, economics became a distinct, mathematical discipline.

Economics is now once again on the cusp of a profound transformation, owing to the digital revolution and the rise of artificial intelligence. By redefining the meaning of labour and giving rise to new forms of economic warfare that disrupt global supply chains, these rapid technological advances are changing the nature of markets and trade. Policymakers appear slow to recognize this new reality, leading to frequent economic ‘firefighting.’ But just as fighting fires does not eliminate the need to develop new types of non-flammable materials, economists must devote more energy to studying the dynamics of today’s emerging technological paradigm. One way to do this is to go back to basics. Notably, before the late nineteenth century, there was no discipline called economics; it was known as ‘political economy,’ in recognition of the intertwined nature of the economy and the polity. This began to change with the publication of Alfred Marshall’s Principles of Economics in 1890 and the subsequent rise of marginalism. With its separation from the study of politics, economics became a distinct, mathematical discipline. While this exclusive focus has allowed economists to focus their research and enabled the discipline to mature by leaps and bounds, it has also created an artificial separation between economic policymaking and politics. In the real world, markets, trade, politics, and international relations have become so interconnected that we miss a lot if we try to study them separately. Fortunately, the rise of game theory over the past century has provided economists with an analytical framework that, unlike marginalist mathematics, can encompass both economics and politics. Reviving the classical tradition of political economy would provide us with the intellectual tools needed to study – and perhaps finally understand – our rapidly changing world.

© Project Syndicate

Kaushik Basu

Kaushik Basu is a former chief economist of the World Bank and chief economic adviser to the Government of India as well as a Professor of Economics at Cornell University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Workers’ fundamental right to organise is crucial in combating heat stress

photo: MOHAMMED ABED / AFP

Following the launch of an International Labour Organization (ILO) report on the impact of heat at work, the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) emphasises the vital role of trade unions in combating heat stress and underscores the need for organised labour to protect workers from this climate change-induced danger.


26-07-2024
Health & safety
Climate
Decent work
ILO
2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development


In light of the ILO’s latest report, "Heat at Work: Implications for Safety and Health," the ITUC highlights the indispensable role of trade unions in mitigating the adverse effects of heat stress on workers. The report underscores the increasing danger posed by extreme heat, exacerbated by climate change, and presents compelling evidence on how organised labour has spearheaded initiatives to protect workers from heat stress.

ITUC General Secretary Luc Triangle emphasised, "As climate change intensifies, the role of trade unions in advocating for safe working conditions has never been more critical. Workers must have the right and freedom to organise to ensure their voices are heard, their safety is ensured, and their health is protected. Upholding these fundamental rights is not just a matter of law but a necessity to continue working in a more challenging environment."

The ITUC calls for a commitment by all governments and employers to enhance policies and practices addressing heat stress through social dialogue and collective bargaining. Trade unions must be integral in these discussions to ensure policies dealing with the rapidly growing impact of heat stress on workers are relevant and effective.

EU climate monitor reports highest ever average global temperatures

RFI
Wed, 24 July 2024



Earth withered through a second straight day of record-breaking temperatures on 22 July, the EU's climate monitor said Wednesday, as parts of the world suffer devastating heatwaves and wildfires.

Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed the daily global average temperature was 17.15 degrees Celsius on Monday, the warmest day in recorded history.

This was 0.06 Celsius hotter than the day before on 21 July, which itself broke by a small margin the all-time average high temperature set only a year before.


"This is exactly what climate science told us would happen if the world continued burning coal, oil and gas," said Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist from Imperial College London, on Wednesday.

"And it will continue getting hotter until we stop burning fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions."

Copernicus, which uses satellite data to update global air and sea temperatures close to real time, said its figures were provisional and final values may differ very slightly.

It anticipated daily records could keep toppling as summer peaks in the northern hemisphere, and the planet endures an extraordinary stretch of unprecedented heat on the back of the hottest-ever year.

The monitor on Tuesday said global temperatures were expected to drop soon though there could be further fluctuations.

Global warming is causing longer, stronger and more frequent extreme weather events, and this year has been marked by major disasters across the globe.

(AFP)


July 22 second day in row to break global heat record: EU monitor

Nick Perry
Wed, 24 July 2024 


Climate change is causing longer, stronger and more frequent extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods (CRISTINA QUICLER)


Earth withered through a second-straight day of record-breaking temperatures on July 22, the EU's climate monitor said Wednesday, as parts of the world suffer devastating heatwaves and wildfires.

Preliminary data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed the daily global average temperature was 17.15 degrees Celsius (62.9 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, the warmest day in recorded history.

This was 0.06C hotter than the day before on July 21, which itself broke by a small margin the all-time high temperature set only a year before.

"This is exactly what climate science told us would happen if the world continued burning coal, oil and gas," said Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist from Imperial College London, on Wednesday.

"And it will continue getting hotter until we stop burning fossil fuels and reach net zero emissions."

Copernicus, which uses satellite data to update global air and sea temperatures close to real time, said its figures were provisional and final values may differ very slightly.

It anticipated daily records could keep toppling as summer peaks in the northern hemisphere, and the planet endures an extraordinary stretch of unprecedented heat on the back of the hottest-ever year.

The monitor on Tuesday said global temperatures were expected to drop soon though there could be further fluctuations.

Global warming is causing longer, stronger and more frequent extreme weather events, and this year has been marked by major disasters across the globe.

The historic heat has been felt on many continents including Asia, North America and Europe, where heatwaves and wildfires have torn a path of destruction in recent weeks.

Fires have also ripped through the Arctic, which is warming much faster than elsewhere on the planet, while winter temperatures were well above normal in Antarctica.

- 'Horrific temperatures' -

Copernicus said it was less the fact daily temperature records were being rewritten than a broader pattern of never-before-seen warming that greatly worries climate scientists.

Every month since June 2023 has eclipsed its own temperature record compared to the same month in previous years, something never before seen.

The heat witnessed on Sunday and Monday only slightly exceeded the July 2023 record, but was far above the previous high of 16.8C set in August 2016.

Copernicus said that 16.8C record has been smashed 57 times since July 2023, around the time global temperatures began a steady rise into what scientists have called unchartered territory.

"The much used term 'unprecedented' no longer describes the horrific temperatures we are experiencing," Christiana Figueres, a former head of the UN's climate change body, said on Wednesday.

Copernicus records go back to 1940 but other sources of climate data such as ice cores, tree rings and coral skeletons allow scientists to expand their conclusions using evidence from much deeper in the past.

Climate scientists say the period being lived through right now is likely the warmest the earth has been for the last 100,000 years, back at the start of the last Ice Age.

The burning of fossil fuels is the primary driver of climate change and emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases keep rising despite global efforts to slow rising temperatures.

Copernicus on Tuesday said 2024 could pass 2023 as the hottest year on record but it was "too early to predict with confidence".

Record for World’s Hottest Day Gets Broken Two Days in a Row

Charna Flam
Wed, 24 July 2024 

Sunday, July 21, was briefly the hottest recorded day on Earth, until Monday, July 22 rolled around

Close-up of a young man covering his head with a cloth and wearing black sunglasses on an extremely hot afternoon while drinking water from a plastic bottle.

Sunday, July 21, was briefly the hottest recorded day on Earth. Then, Monday, July 22 rolled around.

After the global average temperature reached 62.762 degrees Fahrenheit (17.09 degrees Celsius) on Sunday, per the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, temperatures reached 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit (17.15 degrees Celsius) the following day.

The two back-to-back days had the hottest temperatures in recorded history, causing heat waves worldwide the past week — and throughout the summer. Before Sunday, July 21, the hottest day on record was Aug. 12, 2016.

“The event is still ongoing and it is possible the date of the peak may still change, but our data suggest we may see slightly lower temperatures in the next few days,” Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement.

 image of a tired adult person feeling unwell during a hot day

In America, parts of California experienced triple-digit temperatures on July 22, triggering wildfire warnings in the affected areas, per NBC News. Meanwhile, temperatures reached 118 degrees in Dubai as a heatwave continues to grip Southern Europe, with Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece all issuing heat advisories.

Never miss a story — sign up for PEOPLE's free daily newsletter to stay up-to-date on the best of what PEOPLE has to offer, from celebrity news to compelling human interest stories.

Northern China also experienced historic numbers this summer, with the Xinjiang region reaching above 104 degrees, per CNN.

Related: 56-Year-Old Hiker Dies After Running Out of Water Near Utah State Park amid Triple-Digit Heat

Another factor to the excessive heat? El Niño, a natural climate pattern that refers to the warming of the ocean’s surface, or “above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean,” per the United States Geological Survey.

Yale Climate Connections climate writer and meteorologist Bob Henson has predicted that La Niña — the weather pattern that brings cooler temperatures — will reduce average temperatures later this year, per NBC News.

“Even if next year doesn’t bring similar records, we know what the long term forecast is, and that’s warmer and warmer over time,” Henson said. “When you turn up the burners and leave them on for a century, you’re going to see the water boil.”




Record broken for hottest day on earth for second straight day

Lauren Sforza
Wed, 24 July 2024




Monday broke the record for the hottest day on Earth, marking the second straight day of temperatures surpassing the previous high.

Preliminary data published by the European climate service Copernicus Wednesday showed that Monday’s temp was 0.06 degrees Celsius — about 0.1 degree Fahrenheit — higher than Sunday’s temperature. This made Monday the hottest day recorded on Earth, breaking the previous record set the day before.

The global average temperature on Monday was 17.15 degrees Celsius—about 62.87 degrees Fahrenheit. This broke Sunday’s record of 17.09 degrees Celsius, which is about 62.76 degrees Fahrenheit.

Before this week, the previous record of the global average temperature was 17.08 degrees Celsius — or nearly 62.74 degrees Fahrenheit — recorded on July 6, 2023.

Copernicus Climate Change Service Director Carlo Buontempo warned that the world is in “uncharted territory” when the record was initially broken on Sunday.

“On July 21st, C3S recorded a new record for the daily global mean temperature. What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records,” he said, according to an article from Copernicus.

“We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years,” Buontempo added.

Before the 2023 record, the previous hottest day on Earth was set on Aug. 13, 2016, when the global average temperature hit 16.80 degrees Celsius — or about 62.24 degrees Fahrenheit.

Copernicus’s analysis suggested that warmer temperatures in the Antarctic region contributed to the high global average temperatures recorded this week. The analysis noted that a similar trend occurred in July 2023, when global temperatures also reached a new record.

The analysis said that it expected temperatures to peak by Tuesday before dipping down.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


'Heat is a killer': Experts explain why it matters that heat records were broken this week

Sibi Arasu / Seth Borenstein
Thu, 25 July 2024 

'Heat is a killer': Experts explain why it matters that heat records were broken this week


Monday marked the hottest day ever on Earth. The second hottest day? The day before. Heat records have never tumbled at such speed before and it could have dire consequences for people everywhere, especially Europe which is the fastest warming continent on Earth.

The EU's climate service Copernicus calculated that the global average temperature on Monday was 17.16 Celsius, narrowly topping the previous record set just a day before when it was 17.09 C. Tuesday was then 17.15 C.

All of these temperatures beat the record set just last year on 6 July by 0.01°C. All of these obliterate the previous record of 16.8°C, which itself was only a few years old, set in 2016.

The Earth would not be heating up so fast if fossil fuels were not being burned at such a rate, leading to human-caused global warming.
'Heat is a killer'

“The steady drumbeat of hottest-day-ever records and near-records is concerning for three main reasons. The first is that heat is a killer.

The second is that the health impacts of heat waves become much more serious when events persist.

The third is that the hottest-day records this year are a surprise,” says Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field.

Field said high temperatures usually occur during El Niño years - a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that triggers weather extremes across the globe - but the last El Niño ended in April.

Field said these high temperatures “underscores the seriousness of the climate crisis."

“This has been, I mean, probably the shortest-lived record ever,” Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo said Wednesday, after his agency calculated that Monday had beaten Sunday’s mark. And he predicted that mark would also quickly fall. “We are in uncharted territory.”

Why is Europe experiencing such extremes in its weather and what can be done?


It feels like 62C in Dubai. Why is heat and humidity such a deadly combination?
Previous record has been beaten 59 times in 13 months

Before 3 July 2023, the hottest day measured by Copernicus was 16.8 C on 13 August, 2016. In the last 13 months that mark has now been beaten 59 times, according to Copernicus.

Humanity is now “operating in a world that is already much warmer than it was before,” Buontempo said.

“Unfortunately people are going to die and those deaths are preventable,” said Kristie Ebi, a public health and climate professor at the University of Washington. “Heat is called the silent killer for a reason. People often don’t know they’re in trouble with heat until it’s too late.”

Spain has suffered 22,000 heat-related deaths in the last 8 years. How will a new map help?


‘Overheating’: Parisians have the highest risk of heat-related death in Europe
Most heat deaths in more than 80 years

In past heatwaves, including in 2021 in the Pacific Northwest, heat deaths didn’t start piling up until day two, Ebi said.

“At some point, the accumulated heat internally becomes too much, then your cells and your organs start to warm up,” Ebi said.

Last year, the United States had its most recorded heat deaths in more than 80 years, according to an Associated Press analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. The death certificates of more than 2,300 people mentioned excessive heat.

Earlier this year, India witnessed prolonged heatwaves that resulted in the death of at least a 100 people. However, health experts say heat deaths are likely undercounted in India and potentially other countries.

Infertility, heart failure and kidney disease: How does climate change impact the human body?

Hiking experts’ tips for staying safe in hot weather after five tourists die in Greek heatwave

The “big driver” of the current heat is greenhouse gas emissions, from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, Buontempo said. Those gases help trap heat, changing the energy balance between the heat coming in from the sun and that escaping Earth, meaning the planet retains more heat energy than before, he said.

Other factors include the warming of the Pacific by El Nino; the sun reaching its peak cycle of activity; an undersea volcano explosion; and air with fewer heat-reflecting particles because of marine fuel pollution regulations, experts said.

The last 13 months have all set heat records. The world’s oceans broke heat records for 15 months in a row and that water heat, along with an unusually warm Antarctica, are helping push temperatures to record level, Buontempo said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thursday, Friday and Saturday also set new warmest day records,” said climate scientist Andrew Weaver at the University of Victoria in Canada, which has been broiling in the warmth.

Climate crisis strikes Morocco as heatwave kills at least 21 people in 24 hours

 

by The Canary
25 July 2024

A heatwave in Morocco has killed at least 21 people in a 24-hour period in the central city of Beni Mellal, the health ministry announced on Thursday 25 July – sparking concern about the continuing impact of the climate crisis on the country.
Morocco heatwave kills at least 21 people

The meteorology department said soaring temperatures affected much of the North African country from Monday 22 to Wednesday 24 July, reaching 48°C in some areas.

In Beni Mellal, “the majority of deaths involved people suffering from chronic illnesses and the elderly, with high temperatures contributing to the deterioration of their health conditions,” the regional health directorate said in a statement.

The ministry was not able to immediately say if this was the highest recorded death toll from a Morocco heatwave.

Beni Mellal, more than 200km southeast of Casablanca, was still experiencing temperatures of 43 degrees on 25 July.

Temperatures are expected to drop in the coming days, the meteorology department said. In the tourism hotspot of Marrakesh, they are expected to drop by 10°C on Sunday 28 July.

Six years of drought

Morocco has suffered a sixth consecutive year of drought, and record heat this past winter with January the hottest since 1940, according to the meteorology department which had recorded temperatures approaching 37°C in some places.

The rising temperatures and prolonged drought, which have lowered reservoir levels, are a threat to the vital farm sector.

Water evaporation reached 1.5 million cubic metres (53 million cubic feet) per day, water minister Nizar Baraka said at the end of June.

The High Commission for Planning said in May that the “labour market continues to suffer from the effects of the drought” and reported that the unemployment rate had increased to 13.7% in the first quarter, up from 12.9% in the same period of last year.

Around 159,000 jobs in the agricultural sector disappeared, the figures showed.

Morocco heatwave’s record temperature – 50.4°C – was set in August last year in the coastal resort city of Agadir.

Globally, 22 July was the hottest day recorded since measurements began in 1940, the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation programme said.

It has previously predicted that daily records would be broken this summer in the northern hemisphere and that the planet would endure a particularly long period of intense heat due to climate change.