Monday, October 02, 2023

Slovakia's poll winner defies European consensus on Ukraine


Slovakia holds early parliamentary election© Thomson Reuters

By Jan Lopatka and Jason Hovet

BRATISLAVA (Reuters) -Slovakia's pro-Russian and anti-liberal election winner Robert Fico was poised on Sunday to begin coalition talks to form a government likely to join Hungary in opposing the European Union's military aid for Ukraine.



Slovakia holds early parliamentary election© Thomson Reuters

The 59-year-old former prime minister's SMER-SSD party scored nearly 23% of Saturday's parliamentary poll, earning the president's nod to start talks to replace a technocrat government that has been backing Kyiv against Russia's invasion.



Michal Simecka, leader of the Progressive Slovakia party, Peter Pellegrini, leader of the HLAS party, and Robert Fico, leader of the SMER-SSD party, stand next to each other after a televised debate at TV TA3© Thomson Reuters

"We are not changing that we are prepared to help Ukraine in a humanitarian way," said Fico, whom analysts consider to be inspired by Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban who has frequently clashed with the EU.

"We are prepared to help with the reconstruction of the state but you know our opinion on arming Ukraine," he added at a news conference.

Fico's campaign call of "Not a single round" for neighbouring Ukraine resonated in the nation of 5.5 million.

Slovakia is a member of the NATO military alliance, which is backing Ukraine against Russian President Vladimir Putin, but many of its people are sympathetic to Moscow's line that the West wants to annihilate it.

Slovakia's Pro Russia Robert Fitzroy was in pole position to
Reuters
Slovakia's Pro-Russia former PM Fico wins election

Fico said Slovakia has bigger problems than the Ukraine issue, including energy prices and living costs, but his party would do everything possible to start peace talks.

Sloviakia's liberal Progresivne Slovensko (Progressive Slovakia, PS) party came second in Saturday's vote with almost 18% of votes and wants to stay the course on backing Ukraine.

So Fico may well look to the moderate leftist HLAS (Voice) party, which came third with nearly 15% of votes, as a partner along with the nationalist, pro-Russian Slovak National Party.

He said coalition talks could take two weeks.

HLAS leader Peter Pellegrini has said ammunition supplies to Ukraine are good for Slovakia's defence industry and the party has backed the EU stance against the invasion.

Fico's record of pragmatism may mean he tones down his rhetoric going forward, analysts and diplomats say, especially in a coalition with HLAS.

Slovakia has already donated to Ukraine most of what it could from state reserves - including fighter jets - and Fico has not clarified whether his party would seek to end commercial supplies from the defence industry.

ANTI-LIBERAL SHIFT

A Fico-led government would signal a further shift in central Europe against political liberalism, which would be reinforced if the ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) wins an election in Poland later this month.

Hungary's Orban congratulated Fico on Sunday with a post on X social media platform saying: "Guess who's back!"

"Always good to work together with a patriot," he added.

Fico, who campaigned strongly against illegal migration in the run-up to Saturday's election and criticised a caretaker government for not doing more, said re-starting border controls with Hungary would represent a top priority.

"One of the first decisions of the government must be an order renewing border controls with Hungary," Fico told a news conference. "It will not be a pretty picture," he said, adding force would be needed on the 655 km (400 miles) border.

The migrants, predominantly young men from the Middle East and Afghanistan, mostly come via the so-called Balkan route, entering Hungary from Serbia despite a steel fence that Orban had built after the 2015 refugee crisis that rocked Europe.

Slovakia's PS party, which is liberal on green policies, LGBT rights, deeper European integration and human rights, also plans to court HLAS.

"We believe that this is very bad news for Slovakia," PS leader Michal Simecka told a news conference of SMER-SSD's victory. "And it would be even worse news if Robert Fico succeeds in forming a government."

Born to a working-class family, Fico graduated with a law degree in 1986 and joined the then ruling Communist party.

After the 1989 fall of Communist rule, he worked as a government lawyer, won a seat in parliament under the renamed Communist party, and represented Slovakia at the European Court for Human Rights.

Fico has run SMER-SDD since 1999.

** Click here for an interactive graphic on election results:

(Reporting by Jan Lopatka and Jason Hovet; Writing by Jason Hovet and Michael Kahn; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Andrew Cawthorne)

Pro-Russia ex-PM leads leftist party to win in Slovakia's parliamentary elections

Updated October 1, 2023
By The Associated Press

Chairman of Smer-Social Democracy party Robert Fico, center, adresses the results of an early parliamentary election during a press conference in Bratislava, Slovakia, on Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023.
Darko Bandic/AP

PRAGUE — A populist former prime minister and his leftist party have won early parliamentary elections in Slovakia, staging a political comeback after campaigning on a pro-Russian and anti-American message, according to complete results announced Sunday.

Former Prime Minister Robert Fico and the leftist Smer, or Direction, party had 22.9% of the votes, or 42 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, the Slovak Statistics Office said.

Public and exit polls predicted a tight race but in the end, Fico won relatively big after his campaign — considered aggressive and the most radical of his career — attracted voters who favored the far-right.

With no party winning a majority of seats, a coalition government will need to be formed. The president traditionally asks an election's winner to try to form a government, so Fico is likely to become prime minister again. He served as prime minister in 2006-2010 and again in 2012-2018.

Fico said he was ready to open talks with other parties on forming a coalition government as soon as President Zuzana Caputova asks him. Caputova said she will do it on Monday.

"We're here, we're ready, we've learned something, we're more experienced," he said.

Saturday's election was a test for the small central European country's support for neighboring Ukraine in its war with Russia, and the win by Fico could strain a fragile unity in the European Union and NATO.

Fico, 59, has vowed to withdraw Slovakia's military support for Ukraine in Russia's war if his attempt to return to power succeeds. "People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine," he said.

The country of 5.5 million people created in 1993 following the breakup of Czechoslovakia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded last February, donating arms and opening the borders for refugees fleeing the war.

Slovakia has delivered to Ukraine its fleet of Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets, the S-300 air defense system, helicopters, armored vehicles and much-needed demining equipment.

The current caretaker government is planning to send Ukraine artillery ammunition and to train Ukrainian service members in demining.

Winning approval for sending more arms to Ukraine is getting more difficult in many countries. In the U.S. Congress, a bill to avert a government shutdown in Washington, D.C., excluded President Joe Biden's request to provide more security assistance to the war-torn nation.

In other countries, including Germany, France, and Spain, populist parties skeptical of intervention in Ukraine also command significant support. Many of these countries have national or regional elections coming up that could tip the balance of popular opinion away from Kyiv and toward Moscow.

A liberal, pro-West newcomer, the Progressive Slovakia party, took second place, with 18% of the votes, or 32 seats.

Its leader Michal Simecka, who is deputy president of the European Parliament, said his party respected the result. "But it's bad news for Slovakia," he said. "And it would be even worse if Robert Fico manages to create a government."

He said he'd like try to form a governing coalition if Fico fails.

The left-wing Hlas (Voice) party, led by Fico's former deputy in Smer, Peter Pellegrini, came in third with 14.7% (27 seats). Pellegrini parted ways with Fico after the scandal-tainted Smer lost the previous election in 2020, but their possible reunion would boost Fico's chances to form a government.

Pellegrini replaced Fico as prime minister after he was forced to resign following major anti-government street protests resulting from the 2018 killing of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee.

Pellegrini congratulated Fico on his victory but said that two former prime ministers in one government might not work well. "It's not ideal but that doesn't mean such a coalition can't be created," he said.

Another potential coalition partner, the ultranationalist Slovak National Party, a clear pro-Russian group, received 5.6% (10 seats).

Those three parties would have a parliamentary majority of 79 seats if they joined forces in a coalition government.

Fico opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the U.S. should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal.

Fico's critics worry that his return to power could lead Slovakia to abandon its course in other ways, following the path of Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and to a lesser extent of Poland under the Law and Justice party.

"It can't be ruled out that he will be looking for a partner who uses similar rhetoric, and the partner will be Viktor Orbán," said Radoslav Stefancik, an analyst from the University of Economics in Bratislava.

Orbán welcomed Fico's victory.

"Always good to work together with a patriot," he posted on X, the former Twitter.

Hungary has — uniquely among EU countries — maintained close relations with Moscow and argued against supplying arms to Ukraine or providing it with economic assistance.

Fico repeats Russian President Vladimir Putin's unsupported claim that the Ukrainian government runs a Nazi state from which ethnic Russians in the country's east needed protection. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish and lost relatives in the Holocaust.

Pro-Russian politician wins Slovakia’s parliamentary election

By Ivana Kottasová, Sophie Tanno and Heather Chen, CNN
 Sun October 1, 2023

A party headed by a pro-Kremlin figure came out top after securing more votes than expected in an election in Slovakia, preliminary results show, in what could pose a challenge to NATO and EU unity on Ukraine.

According to preliminary results released by Slovakia’s Statistical Office at 9 a.m. local time, Robert Fico’s populist SMER party won 22.9% of the vote.

Progressive Slovakia (PS), a liberal and pro-Ukrainian party won 17.9%.


Fico, a two-time former prime minister, now has a chance to regain the job but must first seek coalition partners as his party did not secure a big enough share of the vote to govern on its own.

Speaking after his victory, Fico said he “will do everything” in his power to kickstart Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

“More killing is not going to help anyone,” Fico said.

Negotiations are unlikely to be welcomed in Ukraine, as for now they would likely involve proposals in which territory is ceded to Russia – a non-starter for Kyiv.

The moderate-left Hlas party, led by a former SMER member and formed as an offshoot of SMER following internal disputes, came third with 14.7% of the vote, and could play kingmaker.

With seven political parties reaching the 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament, coalition negotiations will almost certainly include multiple players and could be long and messy.

While not a landslide, SMER’s result is better than expected – last opinion polls published earlier this week showed SMER and PS neck and neck.

Fico has pledged an immediate end to Slovak military support for Ukraine and promised to block Ukraine’s NATO ambitions in what would upend Slovakia’s staunch support for Ukraine.

Michal Šimečka, the leader of PS, said the result was “bad news for the country.”

“The fact of the matter is that SMER is the winner. And we of course respect that although we think it’s bad news for the country. And it will be even worse news if Mr Fico forms the government,” he said at a news conference early on Sunday.

Slovakia’s President Zuzana Čaputová said before the election that she would ask the leader of the strongest party to form the government, meaning Fico will get the first stab at forming a government.

Fico and SMER have not yet commented on the results.

Šimečka said his party will do “everything it could” to prevent Fico from governing.

“I will be in touch with other political leaders of parties that were elected to parliament — on an informal basis — to discuss ways of preventing that,” he said. “We think it will be really bad news for the country, for our democracy, for our rule of law, and for our international standing and for our finances and for our economy if Mr Fico forms the government.”

Peter Pellegrini, the leader of Hlas, said his party was “very pleased with the result.”

“The results so far show that Hlas will be a party without which it will be impossible to form any kind of normal, functioning coalition government,” he said, adding that the party will “make the right decision” to become part of a government that will lead Slovakia out of the “decay and crisis that (the country’s previous leaders) got us into.”

Hlas has been vague about its position on Ukraine in the election campaign. Pellegrini has previously suggested Slovakia “had nothing left to donate” to Kyiv, but also said that the country should continue to manufacture ammunition that is shipped to Ukraine.
Serious consequences for the region

Slovakia, an eastern European nation of about 5.5 million people, was going to the polls to choose its fifth prime minister in four years after seeing a series of shaky coalition governments.

A SMER-led government could have serious consequences for the region. Slovakia is a member of both NATO and the European Union, was among the handful of European countries pushing for tough EU sanctions against Russia and has donated a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine.

But this will likely change under Fico, who has blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and fascists” for provoking Russia’s President Vladimir Putin into launching the invasion, repeating the false narrative Putin has used to justify his invasion.

While in opposition, Fico became a close ally of Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban, especially when it came to criticism of the European Union. There is speculation that, if he returns to power, Fico and Orban could gang up together and create obstacles for Brussels. If Poland’s governing Law and Justice party manages to win a third term in Polish parliamentary elections next month, this bloc of EU troublemakers could become even stronger.

Meanwhile, the liberal PS party had been pushing for a completely different future for Slovakia – including a continued strong support for Kyiv and strong links with the West.

Fico previously served as Slovakia’s prime minister for more than a decade, first between 2006 and 2010 and then again from 2012 to 2018.

He was forced to resign in March 2018 after weeks of mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kušnírová. Kuciak reported on corruption among the country’s elite, including people directly connected to Fico and his party SMER.

The campaign was marked by concerns over disinformation, with Věra Jourová, the European Commission’s top digital affairs official, saying in advance the vote would be a “test case” of how effective social media companies have been in countering Russian propaganda in Slovakia.

Polls suggest Fico’s pro-Russia sentiments are shared by many Slovaks.

According to a survey by GlobSec, a Bratislava-based security think tank, only 40% of Slovaks believed Russia was responsible for the war in Ukraine, the lowest proportion among the eight central and eastern European and Baltic states GlobSec focused on. In the Czech Republic, which used to form one country with Slovakia, 71% of people blame Russia for the war.

The same research found that 50% of Slovaks perceive the United States – the country’s long-term ally – as a security threat.

No comments: