G20 finance chiefs gather in North Carolina with Iran sanctions and tariffs in focus

Copyright AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

By Quirino Mealha

Published on 31/08/2026 - EURONEWS

Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world's largest economies meet in Asheville, North Carolina, on Monday and Tuesday, hosted by a US administration that is simultaneously pressing allies to help isolate Iran financially and imposing tariffs on several of them.

The United States takes its turn chairing the G20 finance track this week under distinctly awkward conditions.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are hosting counterparts in the North Carolina mountains, following a deputies meeting held over the weekend, with the formal agenda covering economic growth, global imbalances, sovereign debt restructuring, banking regulation and energy security.

Asheville was chosen deliberately.

The city was devastated by Hurricane Helene in September 2024, a storm that killed more than 250 people and caused close to $80 billion (€69bn) in damage from Florida to the Carolinas, and Bessent has cited its rebuilding as a fitting backdrop for talks about economic growth.

"We want the rest of the world to come along with our growth agenda, whether it's deregulation, the energy independence [...]" he said, adding that "the world has this mountain of debt, and we do have to grow our way out of it," confirming public debt will feature prominently in the discussions.

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The setting may prove easier than the substance.

Trade friction between the US and Canada escalated after negotiations broke down, hostilities with Iran have resumed through economic rather than military means, and Warsh arrives days after a hawkish first Jackson Hole address that sharply raised the odds of a US rate rise this month.

Both meetings serve as groundwork for the leaders' summit at Trump National Doral in Miami on 14 and 15 December, and come weeks before Xi Jinping is expected in Washington on 24 September.

Bessent's push on Iran

The US Treasury Secretary intends to use bilateral meetings to build support for squeezing Tehran, and stated that Washington will sanction another bank this week, though he declined to name it.

"This is going to be financial violence if we have to," Bessent told AP.

"We are showing people that we know who you are, you know who you are, and this has got to stop," he added.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Asheville, North Carolina, 30 August 2026 AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

The campaign's opening move came on Friday, when the US Treasury proposed a rule that would cut the Emirati branches of Banque Misr, Egypt's second-largest lender, off from the American financial system.

By stopping short of full sanctions, the US administration appeared to signal reluctance to punish major trading partners that still deal with Iran, notably China and India.

On Beijing specifically, Bessent said "all options are on the table" over its continued oil purchases, while dismissing suggestions of hesitancy as "a completely false narrative that the media picked up on."

The meetings are also being held under unusual media restrictions, after the US Treasury barred certain reporters from the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg from covering them.

The New York Times called the move "not just another disturbing effort by the administration to undermine independent journalism, but a blatant attempt to evade public scrutiny."

The department has not explained its decision, though Bessent told the AP that "it has nothing to do with point of view."

Related

Who speaks for Europe at the G20

The EU is represented by Ireland's Tánaiste and Finance Minister Simon Harris, who holds the role by virtue of Ireland's EU presidency since 1 July, alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde and Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.

Harris said he was looking forward to "the first Ministerial meeting of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors since Ireland assumed the Presidency of the EU," describing the forum as a place where the largest economies "can exchange views and work towards international economic and financial stability."

The Irish minister's stated priority reflects the conflict shaping much of the agenda at this G20 meeting.

Among the EU's concerns, Harris listed "energy security and ensuring we have secure and resilient energy supplies at a time of severe volatility caused by the conflict in the Middle East."

He will also hold bilateral meetings with counterparts from G20 member states as Ireland has also been invited as a guest for the December leaders' summit in Miami.

 

Israel signs €3 billion arms export deal with Greece, defence ministry says

Copyright AP Photo

By Ioannis Karagiorgas & Gavin Blackburn

Published on 31/08/2026 - EURONEWS

In a statement, the Greek Defence Ministry said the multi-billion euro purchase was part of "the greatest reform of its armed forces in its history."

Israel's defence ministry said on Monday it had signed a deal with Athens worth approximately €3 billion to set up the "Achilles Shield" aerial defence system for Greece.

"Under the deal, Israel will build Greece a comprehensive, multi-layered air defence array, drawing entirely on Israeli-made systems and on the extensive operational experience Israel's defence establishment has gained during the war," the ministry said in a statement.

"This is the largest defence export deal in the history of Israel-Greece relations and one of the largest in the history of the State of Israel," it added.

The deal was signed by the Israeli defence ministry's director general, Major General Amir Baram and his Greek counterpart, Ioannis Bouras, in Tel Aviv.

A Greek defence ministry source had told the AFP news agency in late July about an upcoming purchase of Israeli-made anti-missile, anti-aircraft and anti-drone systems, part of a broader defence investment for the Achilles Shield of €4.2 billion.

Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias, right, and his Israeli counterpart Israel Katz speak in Athens, 20 January, 2026 AP Photo

In a statement, the Greek Defence Ministry said the multi-billion euro purchase was part of "the greatest reform of its armed forces in its history."

Greek Defence Minister Nikos Dendias was quoted in the statement as saying that recent technological developments "have long rendered existing defence doctrines completely obsolete."

"Greece is the first country in the European Union to adopt" a multi-layered air defence system such as the Israeli one, he added.

According to the Israeli Defence Ministry, the export deal includes the David's Sling, Barak MX and SPYDER interception systems, air surveillance radars and "a new national command and control system".

Related

• US criticises Israel over 'unnecessary escalation' after strikes on Syrian airbase
• European leaders demand Israel halt controversial E1 settlement project in West Bank

All the equipment is manufactured by Israeli defence contractors Rafael and Israel Aerospace Industries and its subsidiary ELTA Systems.

A supplementary €26 million deal was also signed to provide Greece with Rafael's defence systems against drones, the ministry said.

"Israel and Greece share common strategic interests and face shared regional challenges," said Defence Minister Israel Katz, quoted in the statement.

"At a time when actors with hegemonic ambitions are seeking to expand their influence and undermine stability in the region, Israel and Greece will continue to deepen their defence and strategic cooperation," he said, in a likely reference to Turkey.

A SPYDER (Surface-to-air PYthon and DERby) missile fired near Jaisalmer, 24 February, 2026 AP Photo

Greece is now one of only four European NATO members to spend at least 3% of GDP on its military, amid decades of tensions with neighbouring Turkey.

Israel has also increasingly locked horns with Turkey, having struck a disused military base in northwest Syria, claiming it wanted to avert Turkish troops deploying to the facility.

In 2023, Israel signed a deal with Germany to provide the Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile defence system, which was expanded in December for a total value of $6.5 billion (€5.6 billion), the country's largest-ever military export contract.

HIGH SEAS PIRACY

U.S. Eyes 18th-Century Law to Seize and Sell Iranian Oil

By ZeroHedge - Aug 29, 2026

• The U.S. is considering reviving centuries-old “prize law” to seize ownership of Iranian ships and oil captured during its blockade, potentially replacing slower civil forfeiture proceedings.
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• Captured oil and vessels could be sold with proceeds flowing to the U.S. Treasury, turning maritime seizures into another source of economic pressure on Tehran.
• 
  
• The strategy faces major legal and geopolitical risks, from questions over wartime authority to fears that China or other rivals could eventually use the same precedent against U.S. shipping.

The US government is exploring an unusual legal route for dealing with Iranian oil and ships captured as part of its blockade: bringing back a wartime maritime system that has barely been used for generations, according to Bloomberg.

The Justice Department, working with the Pentagon, is preparing to use prize law, which historically allowed courts to decide whether vessels and cargo captured during armed conflict could legally become property of the United States. The mechanism was once commonplace in naval warfare but largely disappeared from American practice after the 19th century and has been dormant since World War II.

The appeal for the administration is largely practical. At present, the government generally relies on civil forfeiture to take ownership of vessels accused of sanctions violations or other offenses. Those cases can become complicated and slow, particularly when shipping companies, creditors, terrorism victims or other parties assert competing rights to the ship or its cargo. A prize proceeding could potentially narrow those disputes and allow captured oil to be sold more quickly, with the proceeds going to the US Treasury.

Bloomberg writes that Houston is being considered as a central venue for these cases. The Southern District of Texas has jurisdiction over a major port and sits alongside the country’s largest concentration of petrochemical infrastructure, giving it the capacity to receive and store substantial quantities of crude. US Attorney Aaron Reitz, whose office is working with DOJ officials in Washington, said the department is “now reviving” prize courts, describing the concept as an “ancient body of maritime law.”

The effort comes as Washington looks for additional ways to put economic pressure on Iran. US forces have already intercepted Iranian-owned or Iran-linked vessels since the blockade was imposed in April. Using prize law could turn those captures into a more direct financial tool: ships and oil deemed lawful prizes could be liquidated, potentially generating revenue while depriving Iran of valuable exports.

Supporters also see a strategic purpose beyond the money. Reviving the system would reinforce the message that the US considers the blockade a serious wartime measure rather than simply another sanctions regime. It could also make it more difficult for neutral commercial vessels to continue transporting goods that Washington believes support Iran.

But there is considerable uncertainty over how a centuries-old framework would operate under modern international law. “This really is a historical area of law that is not tested in modern times,” maritime attorney Allison Luzwick said. Courts could be asked to determine whether the current conflict provides sufficient legal grounds for invoking prize authority at all, particularly given questions surrounding congressional authorization for the hostilities.

The practical challenges are significant as well. Federal judges, prosecutors and the Navy have virtually no contemporary experience administering prize cases, meaning procedures would effectively have to be rebuilt for modern shipping and warfare. Shipowners and other parties with financial claims are also expected to contest seizures.

There are broader geopolitical risks. Critics argue that normalizing prize law could create a precedent that Washington may later regret. A rival power such as China, for example, could point to US practice when attempting to seize American or neutral merchant vessels during a future conflict.

The proposal therefore offers Washington a potentially faster way to convert captured Iranian oil into government revenue and tighten economic pressure on Tehran, but it would do so by reopening an area of wartime law that has gone largely untouched for more than a century.

By Zerohedge.com

 

Europe is heading into winter waiting for Qatari gas that is not coming back

A Macro-Advisory note argues traders have been holding out for the Gulf war to end. Doha says repairs may take up to three years, and the EU bans Russian LNG on 1 January. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook

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By Ben Aris in Berlin August 29, 2026

Europe's gas traders have spent the summer betting that the Gulf war would end before the heating season starts, giving them time enough to restock Europe’s gas tanks. That bet has gone badly.

European gas storage currently stands at about 63% of capacity against a five-year average of 79%. Macro-Advisory, the Eurasia consultancy, said in EU Gas Dilemma note published in August that governments "may very soon force traders to start buying." And that could be very expensive. Investment banks are starting to warn of a repeat of the 2022 energy crisis with price of gas tripling to over €100/MWh once the weather turns colder, which will "start an LNG price war with Asian buyers".

Gas in Europe and LNG in Asia both cost just over double what they did a year ago.

The big change from 2022 is that not only has Europe largely been cut off from Russian gas, but this year the LNG supplies from Qatar have also disappeared thank to the Iran war. Doha says it cannot resume exports because of damage sustained to its Ras Laffan LNG plant, with full repair at 12 to 36 months out. “If that is right, the market has been pricing a supply return that is one to three years away as though it were weeks away,” and the storage deficit is the accumulated cost of the error.

Not all of Europe’s gas tanks are empty. As IntelliNews reported, many countries like Italy and Poland are on track to hit the EU’s mandatory benchmark of 90% full by November 1. Italy was about 82% full and France 67%. The problem children are Germany with 51% and the Netherlands with only 45% of tanks capacity used. Germany is the vulnerable one and also the largest in Europe, but high prices have prevented traders from buying gas during the restocking summer season.

The deficit has raised the risk of power outages in some EU states this winter, according to Macro Advisors, depending on the weather, and "for 100% certain, the price of electricity will be higher".

Then there is the sanctions timetable. The EU has legislated Russian gas out of existence and will ban imports of Russian gas completely by January 1. Short-term LNG contracts have been banned since April 25; all LNG imports go on January 1, 2027; long-term pipeline contracts follow on September 30, 2027, or November 1 if member states face severe storage emergencies.

So, buyers are loading up while it is still legal. The EU bought €809mn ($942mn) of Russian LNG in June, 57% more than a year earlier, giving Russia 24.1% of the bloc's LNG market by value against the US on 54.3%. Belgium - the seat of EU executive and legislative power - was the single biggest buyer at €268mn ($312mn), ahead of France on €258mn ($300mn) and Spain on €201mn ($234mn), and it overtook France and Hungary as the largest buyer of Russian gas of any kind.

Pipeline flows tell the same story in the other direction. The bloc imported a further €542mn ($631mn) of Russian pipeline gas in June, 12.5% of the value of all pipeline gas imports, with Norway leading on 33.3%, Algeria on 23.6% and the UK on 18.8%. TurkStream is the only route still carrying Russian pipeline gas into Europe. Hungary remains the largest buyer at €1.3bn ($1.5bn) in the first half, down 12.5% y/y, then Bulgaria on €704mn ($820mn) and Greece on €539mn ($628mn).

Across the first half Russian LNG purchases came to €4.5bn ($5.24bn) and total EU spending on Russian gas of all kinds fell just 3.4% y/y to €7.4bn ($8.62bn). June volumes of Russian LNG were 2.17 bcm, up 10%, on Bruegel figures. "Volumes rising into those deadlines look less like weaning and more like stocking up while it is still legal," the note says.

Where the EU's gas came from in July 2026. Pipelines were 61.3% of the total and LNG 38.7%; Russia supplied 6.7% by pipeline and 6.0% as LNG. Source: Kpler, ENTSOG and EOA, 2026, via Macro-Advisory.

With Europe threatening ban Russian gas completely, Putin turned the tables on Europe and threatened to cut Europe off early rather than wait to be pushed. That would exacerbate the potential crisis as Europe remains addicted to Russian gas. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russian companies would redirect LNG to China, India, Thailand and the Philippines. Russia supplied Europe with 38 bcm of gas in 2025, just over 20 bcm of it as LNG.

The alternatives all fail on timing rather than on volume. New US LNG capacity arrives too late for this winter and perhaps for 2027-28, and Washington has warned it may restrict exports as data centres and AI drive domestic power demand. Azerbaijan is promising more piped gas but the TAP and TANAP pipeline projects need significant capacity upgrades first, which takes "several years". Turkmenistan has the reserves and sells over 80% of its gas to China, but it is on the wrong side of the Caspian: a new trans-Caspian pipeline, or an LNG plant in Turkey, is still at the talking stage because nobody will commit until they know when Gulf supply returns.

Every one of those routes is waiting on the same unknowns, which is why none of them is being built.

Macro Advisory has also flagged a competitiveness argument that outlasts the winter. If Russia sells its LNG into Asia at prices below what the US charges Europe, European chemicals and other energy-intensive manufacturers face a permanent cost gap against Asian competitors - a structural transfer rather than a seasonal one.

Weather decides the rest, IntelliNews Lambda recently reported in a deep dive into the gas sector. Inventories are at their lowest in 17 years and available supply is tighter than in 2022, with under three months to the heating season. What a cold winter does is not push up prices per se, but empties the tanks out faster; the danger this year is with low storage the space underneath the gas market was already a lot shallower than normal.

The wider gas crisis now runs through a single chokepoint, and Europe's answer to losing Russian pipeline gas was to buy a seaborne commodity whose route Iran controls. The sanctions deadlines were written when Qatar was the swing producer and will now go into effect when Qatari gas is off the market.

Asian Refiners Turn to Argentina as Iran War Disrupts Oil Supply

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Aug 31, 2026

Asian crude oil importers, including China, Japan, and South Korea, have turned to buying oil from as far as Argentina to offset supply losses from the Middle East, anonymous traders with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg on Monday.    

Refiners in Asia, which have relied on the Middle East for a large part of their term supplies before the Iran war, are now scouring the global crude oil market for alternative barrels that do not need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or other geopolitical hotspots, or take a month longer to deliver from the Red Sea via the Mediterranean and the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.

Argentina fits the bill, and some refiners in Asia have bought cargoes from the South American producer.

In recent weeks, refiners in Asia have bought Argentina’s Medanito crude, and at least one cargo of the oil comparable to the U.S. West Texas Intermediate loaded earlier in August, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

Medanito is being produced at the Vaca Muerta shale basin, the heart of Argentina's oil boom, where oil and gas production has been rising in recent years.

Argentina’s oil sales in Asia have jumped this year from 2025, and from no exports at all until 2024, according to Argentinian government data compiled by Bloomberg.

Argentina’s Medanito crude travels to Asia around South America and into the Pacific, without having to pass through any chokepoint or canal, such as the Panama Canal or the Suez Canal. This chokepoint-free trade route has apparently raised the Asian appetite for Argentinian oil, which is also close to the U.S. WTI in quality, a grade that’s also become more popular in Asia since the Iran war broke out.

Medanito is being sold at a discount of $1-$2 per barrel versus WTI, the trade sources told Bloomberg.

Other South American producers, including Brazil and Venezuela, have also become popular among Asian refiners, who seek to minimize the risk of relying on Middle East oil too much.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

The world has spent its emergency oil, the only stockpile growing is Iran's

Ten of the eleven biggest holders of strategic crude drew their reserves down in the second quarter. The one that grew is under naval blockade. / bne IntelliNewsFacebook

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By Ben Aris in Berlin August 29, 2026

Six months into the war around the Strait of Hormuz, the world's emergency oil reserves are close to spent. They are being drawn down faster than at any time since they were built, and the buffer they were meant to provide has largely gone.

Ten of the eleven countries holding the largest strategic stockpiles shrank them in the second quarter. Between them, the ten non-Chinese holders gave up 185mn barrels, a 16% draw in three months. The United States drew 22%, Japan 29%, Saudi Arabia 16%, the UAE 15% and South Korea 12%.

The eleventh, Iran, went the other way. Its strategic inventory rose from 74mn barrels to 88mn, up 18.9%, over the three months its exports collapsed to almost nothing under the US naval blockade. Iran can still pump; it cannot ship. The oil has nowhere to go, so it stays home and counts as reserve.

The drawdowns are setting the world up for a new oil price spike, the problem is being little discussed and not reflected in the current oil prices, which remain in the mid$80s for now. Reserve releases were the West's answer to the chokepoint closing. They have calmed the markets over the last six months with some extreme predictions of oil prices jumping to a much as $350 per barrel failing to appear. However, as the reserves are depleted it is not clear if the markets will remain calm in the next six months if there is no end to the conflict.

America's barrels are a loan, not a sale

The 122mn barrels the United States has taken out of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve since March have to go back, with interest paid in oil.

The release is not a sale. The Energy Information Administration's own explainer says it "is structured as an exchange, which requires the original volume of oil, plus additional barrels, to be returned to the SPR at a later date". A Government Accountability Office report in May described the whole 172mn barrel drawdown as "emergency exchanges rather than sales". The companies that took the nation's emergency oil owe it back, plus extra.

The reserve peaked at 415.4mn barrels on March 20. By August 14 it was 293.4mn. That is 71% of what Washington committed to the international release, which means roughly 50mn barrels are still to go out of the door.

Two things follow that nobody has priced. When the exchanges unwind, refiners have to hand back more crude than they took, into a market that will still be short - so the SPR's recovery is itself a future call on supply. And a reserve that is contractually owed back is not a reserve that can be spent again in the meantime.

Crude for a diesel problem

All 172.2mn barrels of the American contribution were crude, all of it from public stocks, and it was the largest single line in the IEA’s 426mn barrel international programme – the largest in history - in which the next biggest was Japan at 79.8mn.

The shortage is in refined product. On July 21 the International Energy Agency's executive director said in writing that markets for diesel and gasoline were "considerably tighter than those for crude".

There is a reason the American contribution had to be crude: the country holds almost no emergency product. The Northeast gasoline reserve was sold off by act of Congress in 2024, and the same statute bars the energy secretary from creating a new regional product reserve without a line in the president's budget. What is left is one million barrels of heating oil in four New England terminals.

Releasing crude into a diesel shortage is the policy equivalent of sending flour to a bread queue. It helps, eventually, if there is a refinery with spare capacity in the right place - and the Asian refiners that would normally do that work are the ones the war has hit hardest.

China's share rises without China buying anything

China's stocks fell too, by 49mn barrels. But that is 3.2%, roughly a fifth of the rate everyone else was spending at, and China is still 95mn barrels above where it sat at the end of last year.

So, China's share of the tracked total rose from 57% to 61% in a single quarter without Beijing buying a barrel. Everyone else simply spent faster.

The EIA counts China's commercial inventories as strategic, because Chinese state oil companies have been instructed since 2024 to hold emergency barrels commercially. It refuses that treatment to every other country in the table, including Japan, whose mandated private stocks it leaves out. The comparison is tilted before a single barrel is counted.

China is not an IEA member. It is an association country under a 2015 declaration that describes the relationship as "non-binding", and the 90-day stockholding obligation applies to members. Whatever Beijing has, it has no legal duty to release.

Japan stops drawing

Japan will make no further releases from its national reserve in September or October, economy, trade and industry minister Ryosei Akazawa said on August 25.

September crude procurement is expected to fall to about 80% of last year's average monthly level, from 100% in August, because tankers that would normally pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are going the long way round via Suez - 55 days to Japan against 21 to 23, Akazawa told a press conference.

"Of the national reserves for which a release has already been decided, there remains a portion that has not been utilised due to progress in securing alternative supplies. Using that portion would ensure [September] crude oil supply equivalent to an average month last year," he said, adding that procurement should return to last year's average monthly level in October.

Tokyo is saying it can cover September out of what it has already authorised. But that means Japan is husbanding what is left rather than finding an alternative supply. And it comes after the steepest quarterly draw of any major holder.

UBS Says a Major Commodity Upcycle Is Taking Shape

By ZeroHedge - Aug 30, 2026

• UBS is urging investors to position for a commodity upcycle, driven by electrification, AI infrastructure, rising power demand, supply constraints and years of underinvestment.
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• Gold, energy and industrial metals remain particularly attractive, with geopolitical risks supporting energy while copper benefits from structural demand and looming supply deficits.
• 
  
• The broader commodity rally is already accelerating, with the Quantix Commodity Index at a record high and Jeff Currie warning that the era of abundant physical resources may be ending.
• 
  

One day after veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie told investors to "get long and buckle up" for the next leg of the commodities rally, UBS strategist Sagar Khandelwal issued a similarly bullish call, urging clients to "position for a commodity upcycle."

Khandelwal said electrification, surging power demand, artificial-intelligence infrastructure spending, persistent supply constraints, and years of underinvestment are converging to create a perfect storm for a sustained upcycle in hard assets.

Commodities can generate returns while protecting portfolios against energy disruptions and renewed inflation, he said. That defensive role becomes valuable when the toxic mixture starts hitting stocks and bonds. 

Here's how the UBS strategist framed the trade:

Position for commodity upside

We believe commodities can provide both a structural source of return and portfolio protection in scenarios where higher inflation expectations challenge equities and bonds. While commodities have historically offered valuable diversification benefits due to their relatively low correlation with traditional asset classes, we also see a supportive longer-term backdrop driven by electrification, rising power demand, AI infrastructure investment, and supply constraints across several markets. In our view, investors should maintain diversified exposure across precious metals, energy, industrial metals, and agriculture to capture a broad range of opportunities. Given fast-shifting leadership within commodity markets, we think an actively managed approach can help investors navigate the commodity upcycle.

Gold

Gold has resumed its upward trend as US inflation concerns have ebbed, and markets have reined in expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. Looking ahead, however, we believe central bank demand, continued diversification away from the US dollar, and global debt concerns will remain important structural supports. For investors with substantial gains following the strong rally over the past year, higher prices may provide an opportunity to rebalance some exposure into other commodity sectors. We continue to view gold as a useful strategic diversifier, and we remain constructive on gold prices over the next 12 months.

Energy

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran highlights the fluid nature of geopolitical events and how they can impact energy. With crude supply remaining restricted and both sides facing constraints in reaching a compromise, uncertainty over how quickly shipping conditions and production will normalize is likely to keep energy markets sensitive. In our view, energy exposure can help protect against lingering supply uncertainty and inflation spillovers, while robust demand supports a constructive medium-term outlook.

Industrial metals

Industrial metals, such as copper, have benefited from secular demand drivers such as electrification, the energy transition, and the ongoing global buildout of AI infrastructure. Prices have remained resilient despite periodic global economic growth worries. While factors like tariffs and trade policy risks may keep prices volatile in the near term, demand trends remain constructive for the asset class over the longer term. In copper specifically, supply constraints and projected market deficits reinforce our positive longer-term outlook.

A look at the Quantix Commodity Index Total Return shows that the broad commodity complex has surged to a record high, gaining more than 22.5% since late June. The index tracks 24 US-dollar-denominated futures across energy, agriculture, livestock, industrial metals, and precious metals, suggesting the rally is no longer confined to a single corner of the physical world.

That momentum in the commodities index reinforces veteran Currie's warning last week that "scarcity in the physical world" is reemerging. Already, we're seeing London copper trading above $14,000 a ton, the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index breaking out to a three-year high, and European tungsten prices exceeding $3,000 a ton.

Currie's conclusion was very blunt: "The illusion of abundance is likely behind us."

By Zerohedge.com