Rising sea levels could cost Australians at least $855 billion by 2100
Rising sea levels and storm surges could cost $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, according to new Australian-first research
Rising sea levels and storm surges could cost $855 billion in economic losses across Australia by the end of the century, according to new Australian-first research.
Published in Nature Scientific Reports, the study was conducted by researchers at the University of Melbourne and Australian National University.
The researchers estimate coastal flooding could affect almost 270,000 properties and two million hectares of land across Australia by 2100 under a moderate-emissions scenario, including residential homes, farms, critical infrastructure and environmental assets.
This new research uses a future scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called SSP2-4.5, which is an intermediate greenhouse gas and global response scenario leading to around 2.7°C of average global warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is seen as broadly consistent with a continuation of current climate policies, but well above the safe level climate change of 1.5C signed in the Paris Agreement.
The research also estimates damages from sea level rise and storm surge for a very high emissions scenario.
The study, led by University of Melbourne Professor Tom Kompas, underpins the Climate Council’s new Rising Seas Rising Bills report, also co-authored by Professor Kompas.
Researchers first mapped areas likely to be flooded using sea-level projections, storm-surge estimates and Australia’s elevation data, then identified the properties and land within those areas and estimated their value, drawing from a host of data sources and empirical measures.
They then used statistical modelling to estimate how severely those assets could be damaged over time, and the resulting physical damages were translated into economic losses.
The research estimates every State and the Northern Territory will bear significant economic costs from rising sea levels, ranging from $230.5 billion in Western Australia to $7.9 billion in Tasmania.
Projected losses for Queensland are $214.5 billion, followed by Victoria ($167 billion), New South Wales ($151 billion), South Australia ($49.2 billion) and the Northern Territory ($35.2 billion).
The research found Queensland has the greatest number of properties at risk (93,157) followed by New South Wales (71,210) and Western Australia (51,366).
The findings also revealed the Gold Coast alone faces $84.4 billion in projected economic losses – the single most exposed urban area in Australia.
The modelling uses a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, holds storm intensity constant, and excludes losses from erosion.
The possibility of rapid collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica – and up to 2m of sea level rise by the end of the century - is not reflected in the economic losses.
Professor Kompas said: “Sea level rise may physically affect a large number of Australians who live near the coast, as the majority of Australians live within 50 kilometres of the coastline.
“Based on current projections, millions of hectares of land are at risk by 2100, and the costs will be substantial with damages including housing, essential infrastructure, ecosystem services and valuable agricultural land.”
Professor Kompas is a Chief Investigator in the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) and Research Group Director of the Centre for Environmental and Economic Research, both part of the University’s Faculty of Science.
Climate Councillor, Adjunct Professor Andrew Watkins, co-author of the Climate Council’s Rising Seas Rising Bills report, said: “When Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit, families watched their beaches disappear overnight. It cost the City of Gold Coast $35 million in beach repairs, and communities up and down the east coast are still recovering from the damage.
“This is how sea level rise packs a punch, through worsening the impacts from storm surges and major coastal flooding, hitting coastal communities harder, more often.”
Professor Kompas said communities need to be better prepared.
“Because carbon emissions have remained too high, we have already locked in a certain level of sea level rise,” Professor Kompas said.
“Our least costly option is to avoid building in places where we know the risks are highest, and there’s a lot we can do to restore our coastlines and build in ways that reduce future risks. These are hard, but necessary decisions that communities are already facing.”
Dr Watkins notes: “Powerful storm surges are riding on higher seas, putting coastal homes and infrastructure at greater risk. This research shows we can expect the economic losses in Australia to skyrocket into hundreds of billions of dollars if we fail to act.
“The sea level rise in the report is a conservative estimate, and the rapid loss of ice sheets and glaciers could push sea levels even higher.
“This is a slow onset disaster, and our political and business leaders need to act by cutting pollution faster and preparing communities.”
Journal
Scientific Reports
Method of Research
Computational simulation/modeling
Subject of Research
Not applicable
Article Title
Nationwide economic impacts of sea level rise and storm surge from global warming in Australia
Article Publication Date
9-Sep-2026
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