Wildfire smoke clouds sky, hurts air quality on East Coast

By GILLIAN FLACCUS and SARA CLINE

today

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Manhattan is seen from Yankee Stadium through a haze of smoke before a baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Yankees, Wednesday, July 21, 2021, in New York. Wildfires in the American West, including one burning in Oregon that's currently the largest in the U.S., are creating hazy skies as far away as New York as the massive infernos spew smoke and ash into the air in columns up to six miles high. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Smoke and ash from massive wildfires in the American West clouded the sky and led to air quality alerts Wednesday on parts of the East Coast as the effects of the blazes were felt 2,500 miles (4,023 kilometers) away.

Strong winds blew smoke east from California, Oregon, Montana and other states all the way to other side of the continent. Haze hung over New York City, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

The nation’s largest wildfire, Oregon’s Bootleg Fire, grew to 618 square miles (1,601 square kilometers) — just over half the size of Rhode Island. Fires also burned on both sides of California’s Sierra Nevada and in Washington state and other areas of the West.

The smoke blowing to the East Coast was reminiscent of last fall, when large blazes burning in Oregon’s worst wildfire season in recent memory choked the local sky with pea-soup smoke but also affected air quality several thousand miles away. So far this year, Seattle and Portland have largely been spared the foul air.

People in parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania and elsewhere with heart disease, asthma and other health issues were told to avoid the outdoors. Air quality alerts for parts of the region were in place through Thursday.

“One of the things about this event that makes it so remarkable is that the smoke is affecting such a large swath of the U.S,” said Jesse Berman, an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health and an expert on air quality. “You’re not just seeing localized and perhaps upstate New York being affected, but rather you’re seeing numerous states all along the East Coast that are being impacted.”

David Lawrence, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said wildfire smoke usually thins out by the time it reaches the East Coast, but this summer it’s “still pretty thick.”

In California, a wildfire burning completely uncontained south of Lake Tahoe crossed the state line into Nevada. New voluntary evacuation orders were issued for portions of Douglas County, Nevada.

The Tamarack Fire, started by lightning in Alpine County, California, has now burned more than 68 square miles (176 square kilometers). Authorities say more than 1,200 firefighters are battling the blaze, which has destroyed at least 10 structures.

Meanwhile, Oregon on Wednesday banned all campfires on state-managed lands and in state campgrounds east of Interstate 5, the major highway that is commonly considered the dividing line between the wet western part of the state and the dry eastern half.

The regulation includes the designated fire rings at campsites, as well as candles and tiki torches. Propane grills are still allowed, but the state still urged campers to pack food that doesn’t require heating or cooking.

The lightning-caused Oregon fire has ravaged the sparsely populated southern part of the state and has been expanding by up to 4 miles (6 kilometers) a day, pushed by gusting winds and critically dry weather that’s turned trees and undergrowth into a tinderbox.

Fire crews have had to retreat from the flames for 10 consecutive days as fireballs jump from treetop to treetop, trees explode, embers fly ahead of the fire to start new blazes and, in some cases, the inferno’s heat creates its own weather of shifting winds and dry lightning. Monstrous clouds of smoke and ash have risen up to 6 miles (10 kilometers) into the sky and are visible for more than 100 air miles (161 kilometers).

Authorities in Oregon said lower winds and temperatures allowed crews to improve fire lines, and they hoped to make more progress Wednesday. The fire was approaching an old burn area on its active southeastern flank, raising hopes it would not spread as much.

The blaze, which is being fought by more than 2,200 people, is about one-third contained. It was within a few hundred acres of becoming Oregon’s third-largest wildfire in modern history.

At least 2,000 homes have been evacuated at some point during the fire and an additional 5,000 threatened. At least 70 homes and more than 100 outbuildings have burned, but no one is known to have died.

Extremely dry conditions and recent heat waves tied to climate change have made wildfires harder to fight. Climate change has made the West much warmer and drier in the past 30 years and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive.

While Berman is hopeful that the smoke will last only a couple of days, he said we may see more of it due to climate change.

“We fully expect that you’re going to see more situations where smoke, from fires occurring farther away, is going to travel long distances and affect people in other parts of the country,” Berman said. “I would not be surprised at all if these events did become more frequent in the future.”

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Associated Press video journalists Haven Daley in Minden, Nevada, and David Martin in New York City contributed to this report. Follow Flaccus on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/gflaccus.

CLIMATE CRISIS

EXPLAINER: What’s fueling Russia’s ‘unprecedented’ fires?

By DARIA LITVINOVA and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV

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FILE - In this Saturday, July 17, 2021 file photo, volunteers prepare to douse a forest fire in the republic of Sakha also known as Yakutia, Russia Far East. Russia has been plagued by widespread forest fires, blamed on unusually high temperatures and the neglect of fire safety rules, with Sakha-Yakutia in northeastern Siberia being the worst affected region lately. Each year, thousands of wildfires engulf wide swathes of Russia, destroying forests and shrouding broad territories in acrid smoke. This summer has seen particularly massive fires in Yakutia in northeastern Siberia following unprecedented heat. (AP Photo/Ivan Nikiforov, File)

MOSCOW (AP) — Thousands of wildfires engulf broad expanses of Russia each year, destroying forests and shrouding regions in acrid smoke.

Northeastern Siberia has had particularly massive fires this summer amid record-setting heat. Many other regions across the vast country also have battled wildfires.

Some factors behind Russia’s endemic wildfires and their consequences:

RECORD HEAT

In recent years, Russia has recorded high temperatures that many scientists regard as a clear result of climate change. The hot weather has caused permafrost to melt and fueled a growing number of fires.

The vast Sakha-Yakutia region of Siberia has had a long spell of extremely hot and dry weather this summer, with temperatures reaching 39 degrees Celsius (102 degrees Fahrenheit) and setting records for several days. The heat wave helped spark hundreds of fires, which so far have scorched more than 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) of land, making it the worst-affected region in Russia.

The fires have shrouded Yakutia’s cities, towns and villages in thick smoke, forcing authorities to briefly suspend flights at the regional capital’s airport. The Defense Ministry deployed transport planes and helicopters to help douse the flames.

Fedot Tumusov, a member of the Russian parliament who represents the region, called the blazes “unprecedented” in their scope.

MONITORING DIFFICULTIES

The forests that cover huge areas of Russia make monitoring and quickly spotting new fires a daunting task.

In 2007, a federal network to spot fires from aircraft was disbanded and had its assets turned over to regional authorities. The much-criticized change resulted in the program’s rapid deterioration.

The government later reversed the move and reestablished the federal agency in charge of monitoring forests from the air. However, its resources remain limited, making it hard to survey the massive forests of Siberia and the Far East.

NEGLECT OF FIRE SAFETY RULES

While some wildfires are sparked by lightning, experts estimate that over 70% of them are caused by people, from carelessly discarding cigarettes to abandoned campfires, but there are other causes.

Authorities regularly conduct controlled burns, setting a fire to clear the way for new vegetation or to deprive unplanned wildfires of fuel. Observers say such intentional burns often are poorly managed and sometimes trigger bigger blazes instead of containing them.

Farmers also use the same technique to burn grass and small trees on agricultural lands. Such burns regularly get out of control.

ARSON

Activists and experts say that fires are often set deliberately to cover up evidence of illegal lumbering or to create new places for timber harvesting under the false pretext of clearing burned areas.

Activists in Siberia and the Far East allege such arson is driven by strong demand for timber in the colossal Chinese market, and they have called for a total ban on timber exports to China.



Officials have acknowledged the problem and pledged to tighten oversight, but Russia’s far-flung territory and regulatory loopholes make it hard to halt the illegal activity.

Critics blame the 2007 forest code that gave control over timberlands to regional authorities and businesses, eroding centralized monitoring, fueling corruption and contributing to illegal tree-cutting practices that help spawn fires.

CONTROVERSIAL REGULATIONS

Russian law allows authorities to let wildfires burn in certain areas if the potential damage is considered not worth the costs of containing them.

Critics have long assailed the provision, arguing it encourages inaction by authorities and slows firefighting efforts so a blaze that could have been extinguished at a relatively small cost is often allowed to burn uncontrolled.

“They eventually have to extinguish it anyway, but the damage and the costs are incomparable,” said Mikhail Kreindlin of Greenpeace Russia.

LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES

In addition to destroying trees, wildfires also kill wildlife and pose a threat to human health by polluting the air.

Carbon emissions from fires and the destruction of forests, which are a major source of oxygen, also contribute to global warming and its potentially catastrophic impact.

This year’s fires in Siberia already have emitted more carbon than those in some previous years, according to Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

He said the peat fires that are common in Siberia and many other Russian regions are particularly harmful in terms of emissions because peat has been absorbing carbon for tens of thousands of years.

“Then it’s releasing all that carbon back into the atmosphere,” Parrington said.

While pledging adherence to the Paris agreement on climate change, Russian officials often underline the key role played by their forests in slowing down global warming. However, regular wildfires have the opposite effect, dramatically boosting carbon emissions.

“They emphasize that huge areas are covered by forests but neglect the effect of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from fires,” Greenpeace’s Kreindlin said.





FILE - In this Monday, July 19, 2021 file photo, smoke from a forest fire covers Yakustk, the capital of the republic of Sakha also known as Yakutia, Russia Far East. Each year, thousands of wildfires engulf wide swathes of Russia, destroying forests and shrouding broad territories in acrid smoke. This summer has seen particularly massive fires in Yakutia in northeastern Siberia following unprecedented heat. (AP Photo/Yevgeny Sofroneyev, File)

EXPLAINER: As wildfire smoke spreads, who’s at risk?
By MATTHEW BROWN

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The Staten Island Ferry departs from the Manhattan terminal through a haze of smoke with the Statue of Liberty barely visible, Tuesday, July 20, 2021, in New York. Wildfires in the American West, including one burning in Oregon that's currently the largest in the U.S., are creating hazy skies as far away as New York as the massive infernos spew smoke and ash into the air in columns up to six miles high. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — Smoke from wildfires in the western U.S. and Canada is blanketing much of the continent, including thousands of miles away on the East Coast. And experts say the phenomenon is becoming more common as human-caused global warming stokes bigger and more intense blazes.

Pollution from smoke reached unhealthy levels this week in communities from Washington state to Washington D.C.

Get used to it, researchers say.

“These fires are going to be burning all summer,” said University of Washington wildfire smoke expert Dan Jaffe. “In terms of bad air quality, everywhere in the country is to going to be worse than average this year.”

Growing scientific research points to potential long-term health damage from breathing in microscopic particles of smoke. Authorities have scrambled to better protect people from the harmful effects but face challenges in communicating risk to vulnerable communities and people who live very far away from burning forests.

WHY SO MUCH SMOKE AND HOW DANGEROUS IS IT?

Decades of aggressive fire fighting allowed dead trees and other fuels to build up in forests. Now climate change is drying the landscape, making it easier for fires to ignite and spread even as more people move into fire-prone areas.

The number of unhealthy air quality days recorded in 2021 by pollution monitors nationwide is more than double the number to date in each of the last two years, according to figures provided to the Associated Press by the Environmental Protection Agency. Wildfires likely are driving much of the increase, officials said.

The amount of smoke wildfires spew stems directly from how much land burns — more than 4,100 square miles (10,600 square kilometers) in the U.S. and 4,800 square miles (12,500 square kilometers) in Canada so far in 2021. That’s behind the 10-year average for this time of year for both nations, but forecasters warn conditions could worsen as a severe drought afflicting 85% of the West intensifies.

Wildfire smoke contains hundreds of chemical compounds, and many can be harmful in large doses. Health officials use the concentration of smoke particles in the air to gauge the severity of danger to the public.

In bad fire years over the past decade, infernos across the West emitted more than a million tons of the particles annually, according to U.S. Forest Service research.

Scientists link smoke exposure with long-term health problems including decreased lung function, weakened immune systems and higher rates of flu. In the short term, vulnerable people can be hospitalized and sometimes die from excessive smoke, according to physicians and public health officials.

When communities burn, the smoke can be especially hazardous. The 2018 fire in Paradise, California that killed 85 people and torched 14,000 houses also generated a thick plume blanketing portions of Northern California for weeks. Smoke from burning houses and buildings contains more toxic plastics and other manufactured materials as well as chemicals stored in garages.

WHERE ARE THE FIRES?

More than 60 large wildfires are now burning out of control across the U.S., including 17 in Montana. The largest — eastern Oregon’s Bootleg fire — has grown to 624 square miles (1,616 square kilometers). That’s half the size of Rhode Island, yet fewer than 200 houses and other structures have been confirmed as lost because the fire is burning in a sparsely populated area.

More than 200 fires are burning in Manitoba and Ontario, according to Canadian officials.

Weather patterns and fire intensity determine who gets hit by smoke. Huge fires generate so much heat that they can produce their own clouds that funnel smoke high into the atmosphere.

“It just carries across the country and slowly spreads out, forming sort of this haze layer in the sky,” said meteorologist Miles Bliss with the National Weather Service in Medford, Oregon.

The combined plume from Canada and the U.S. largely passed over parts of the Midwest this week before settling to ground level across an area that stretches from Ohio northeast to New England and south to the Carolinas, air pollution data shows.

Health effects can occur thousands of miles from the flames. The smoke loses its tell-tale odor but remains a potential hazard even when it drifts that far, said Jeff Pierce, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University.

“It’s certainly unhealthy,” Pierce said of the air along the East Coast in recent days. “If you have asthma or any sort of respiratory condition, you want to be thinking about changing your plans if you’re going to be outside.”

People who live close to fires are more likely to be prepared and take precautions, while those who live farther away unwittingly remain exposed, according to a recent study by Colorado State University epidemiologist Sheryl Magzamen and Pierce.

HOW DO I PROTECT MYSELF?

Listen for warnings about smoke and, if advised, avoid outdoor activities to reduce exposure. Keep doors and windows closed, and run an air filter to clean inside air. Face masks can protect against breathing in smoke. As with COVID-19, most effective are N95 masks because they are designed to block the smallest particles.

An online, interactive smoke map launched by the EPA and the U.S. Forest Service last year on a pilot basis has drawn millions of viewers. To reach people more quickly, officials are considering using mobile phone push notifications that would alert users when heavy smoke could inundate their communities, according to agency spokeswoman Enesta Jones.

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Associated Press reporter Julie Walker contributed from New York.

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Follow Matthew Brown on Twitter: @MatthewBrownAP

Haiti leader’s slaying exposes role of 

ex-Colombian soldiers

By REGINA GARCIA CANO and ASTRID SUAREZ

today

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FILE - In this July 8, 2021 file photo, suspects in the assassination of Haiti's President Jovenel Moise are shown to the media at police headquarters in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Haitian authorities have implicated at least 20 retired Colombian soldiers in the president's assassination on July 7. (AP Photo/Jean Marc Hervé Abélard, File)

BUCARAMANGA, Colombia (AP) — As the coronavirus pandemic squeezed Colombia, the Romero family was in need of money to pay the mortgage. Mauricio Romero Medina’s $790 a month pension as a retired soldier wasn’t going far.

Then came a call offering a solution.

When Romero answered the phone on June 2, another veteran, Duberney Capador, offered what he said was a legal, long-term job requiring only a passport. But Romero had to make a decision fast.

“Talk about it with your family and if you are interested, see you tomorrow in Bogota, because the flight is the day after tomorrow,” Romero’s wife, Giovanna, told The Associated Press, recalling the conversation.

A month later, Romero and Capador were dead and 18 Colombians were reportedly in custody, accused of taking part in the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse. It’s a case that dramatizes Colombia’s role as a recruiting ground for the global security industry — and its murkier, mercenary corners.

Colombia’s Defense Ministry says about 10,600 soldiers retire each year, many highly trained warriors forged in a decades-long battle against leftist rebels and drug trafficking cartels. Many — including a number of those involved in Haiti — have been trained by the U.S. military.

Those soldiers make up a pool of recruits for companies seeking a wide range of services — as consultants or bodyguards, in teams guarding Middle Eastern oil pipelines or as part of military-like private security in places like the United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan. The UAE paid Colombian veterans to join in the battle against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

“Colombian former (soldiers) are very well trained and ... may be cheaper or more accessible than other sorts of trained, specialized manpower,” said Silvana Amaya, a senior analyst focused on the Andean region for the global security firm Control Risks. “It’s a good opportunity for former (soldiers) in Colombia to have a job that they’re obviously prepared to do. ... So for both sides, supply and demand, we believe that it works well.”

Sean McFate, a former U.S. Army paratrooper and private military contractor who has written about mercenaries, said Colombians are generally on par with U.S. and British soldiers, and are “good value” because they have combat experience, obey chain of command, work in teams and are tough.

“It’s an illicit industry that operates around command language,” McFate said. “The three main mercenary pillars are Spanish, English and Russian. And in the Spanish one, the Colombians are the biggest.”

The wife of Francisco Uribe, who was among those arrested in the Haiti assassination, told Colombia’s W Radio that the company that contracted the veterans, Florida-based CTU Security, offered the men about $2,700 a month.




That can go a long way when exchanged to Colombian pesos. It’s also far below the rates of retired Green Berets or other American, British, Israeli or South African veterans.

“We are normally paid almost 50%, and sometimes up to 70% less, for being Latin American,” said retired Col. John Marulanda, president of the Colombian Association of Officers of Military Forces in Retirement and an international security consultant.

He insisted their work is only “a business” and “has nothing to do with mercenarism.”

Colombian President Iván Duque last week said that only a small group of the former soldiers arrested in Haiti knew it was a criminal operation. He said the others were duped and thought they were traveling for a legitimate mission to provide protection.

Relatives note the men didn’t think they needed to hide. Several posted social media photos of themselves during a stop in the neighboring Dominican Republic en route to Haiti.

Jenny Guardado, an assistant professor of Latin American studies at Georgetown University, said Colombian soldiers tend to come from rural, low-income neighborhoods, where drug cartels and rebel groups also recruit, and they usually see their military service as a way to climb the social ladder.

But some struggle after they leave the military, especially those who haven’t put in the 20 years of service needed for a full pension. And, she said, some have complained about not getting their full benefits.

Colombia’s armed forces commander, Gen. Luis Fernando Navarro, told reporters this month that the army does not have the capacity to monitor all retired military personnel, only to guarantee social assistance, including the pension.

Key details of what happened on July 7 are unclear.

Authorities said the attackers raided the president’s home before dawn yelling “DEA operation!” and wielding high-caliber weapons. A small group entered and the rest stayed outside.

A judge told the AP the attackers tied up a maid and houseboy and ransacked Moïse’s office and bedroom. The president’s daughter hid in her brother’s bedroom and survived.

When it was over, Moïse lay sprawled on his bedroom floor. He had been shot in the forehead, chest, hip and stomach, and his left eye was gouged. His wife was wounded by gunfire.

None of the president’s security detail was injured — raising questions about their role.

The attackers don’t appear to have made any plan to escape. Some hid in a nearby business. Others invaded the Taiwanese Embassy. Some were found hiding in bushes by passersby and handed over to police.

At least three of the Colombians were killed, including Romero and Capador.

Romero retired from the army in December 2019 after receiving multiple decorations, specializing as a military paratrooper and combat medic and attending the Lancero School, which provides army special operations training and is similar to the U.S. Army Ranger School.

“When the soldiers retire, they are invited to join armies in other countries,” Giovanna Romero told the AP. “Mauricio was no exception to the fact that if one of those opportunities arose, it could be taken, because he had the knowledge for the job.”

She said her husband never told her where he was going, and she learned of his death from the news media. Now, the Colombian government has informed the family that his pension will be suspended for the duration of an administrative process.

The Moïse assassination presents a challenge for the Colombian security forces, which already were dealing with complaints about a heavy handed response to protests this year and over past allegations that soldiers sometimes killed innocent civilians and counted them as rebels slain in combat in order to boost body counts.

Colombian Vice President Marta Lucía Ramírez has said the country is ready to offer consular assistance to the detained suspects and repatriate the bodies of the deceased. A former defense minister, she defended the nation’s armed forces.

“I know perfectly well that the Colombian military are never, under any circumstances, mercenaries who are going to go on duty to commit any crime anywhere,” Ramírez said.

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Garcia Cano reported from Mexico City.

IT TOOK A CENTURY TO FIGURE THAT OUT
California's largest utility aims to bury 10K miles of power lines to prevent fires



The sun glows through smokey skies behind high-tension electrical towers in Butte County, Calif., on November 17, 2018. The Camp Fire was sparked by faulty PG&E equipment. File Photo by Terry Schmitt/UPI | License Photo


July 22 (UPI) -- The largest utility in California is planning to bury 10,000 miles of power lines in an effort to prevent fires in the drought-stricken state.

Pacific Gas & Electric said the move is intended to "further harden its system" to prevent accidental outbreaks of wildfires. Several fires in California have been attributed to PG&E equipment over the years.

"We want what all of our customers want: a safe and resilient energy system," utility CEO Patti Poppe said in a statement Wednesday.

"We have taken a stand that catastrophic wildfires shall stop."

RELATED PG&E says its equipment may a have sparked 30,000-acre Dixie Fire in California

The announcement came days after PG&E announced that damaged equipment may have led to the Dixie Fire, which has grown to 80,000 acres and is one of the state's largest. There, a PG&E employee found two blown fuses where a tree leaned into a conductor.

The Dixie Fire is burning in Butte County, where a PG&E equipment failure sparked the deadly Camp Fire in 2018.

Jamie Court, president of Consumer Watchdog, told The San Francisco Chronicle that the move to bury lines should have been done a decade ago.

"This is basically another shuck-and-jive move to divert attention from the fact that they may have sparked the Dixie Fire," Court said.

In a call with reporters, Poppe described the plan as a "moonshot."

PG&E currently has 27,000 miles of buried power lines, but few are underground in high-risk fire areas. In those affected areas, the utility intends to bury 1,000 miles per year.

The cost of burying each mile of line is about $4 million. PG&E unsuccessfully applied for state aid for the project last year, which was then estimated to be $40 billion. Poppe expressed optimism that cost could be cut in half.

NOT TOO LATE TO #CANCELTOKYOOLYMPICS

Tokyo reports nearly 2,000 new COVID-19 cases before Olympics



The celebration cauldron is seen lit during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic torch relay at Shiba Park in Tokyo on Thursday, Government officials documented nearly 2,000 new coronavirus cases the day before the Opening Ceremony. Photo by Keizo Mori/UPI | License Photo


July 22 (UPI) -- Tokyo's government on Thursday reported nearly 2,000 new cases of COVID-19, 91 connected with the Olympics, the day before the Opening Ceremony.

A government website said 1,979 cases have been confirmed out of 8,206 tests administered, amounting to 24.1% positive results from the tests given.

Of those connected to the Olympics, nine were residents at the Olympic Village, four were athletes and four others were personnel, according to CNN.

The news comes as officials report that the hospital occupancy rate in Tokyo has reached its most severe level. Officials issued a Stage 4 alert for beds after occupancy reached 52%.

The city was also placed on Stage 4 alert because of its daily new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, infected people with nonserious symptoms recuperating at hotels and homes, and the rate of positive tests for the virus.

Local health officials said if trends continue, the numbers indicate the current coronavirus wave will easily rival the ones that swept through the city in late 2020 and early 2021.

Officials said the Delta variant of the coronavirus accounts for 30.5% of the new cases in Tokyo over the week through July 11, according to metropolitan government data.

REPEAT AFTER ME; FAILED STATE
International pressure, sanctions threats bring no change in Lebanon

By Dalal Saoud


A Lebanese man drives as protesters block the roads with garbage bins and burning tires during protests after Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri stepped down, abandoning his effort to form a new government, on July 15 in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo by Nabil Mounzer/EPA-EFE

BEIRUT, Lebanon, July 22 (UPI) -- International pressure and threats to impose sanctions on Lebanese political leaders to force agreement on the formation of a new government to deliver reforms and save the country from crisis are leading nowhere.

After nine months of trying to form a new Cabinet, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri simply gave up. Hariri announced July 15 that he decided to step down shortly after President Michel Aoun rejected his new Cabinet line-up of 24 nonpartisan specialists. It was their first meeting in four months but their 20th since Hariri was named prime minister by a parliamentary majority last October.

The two leaders have been unable to agree, trading accusations and blaming each other for the continued obstruction in a fierce battle over prerogatives and who is to name the ministers. While Aoun is a close ally of Hezbollah and controls the largest Christian bloc in parliament, Hariri remains the top Sunni leader.

In line with the 1989 Taef accord that ended the 1975-90 civil war, the prime minister holds parliamentary consultations to form the Cabinet and co-sign with the president its formation decree.

Hariri argued in a post-resignation interview with New TV, a local TV network, that Aoun still wanted a blocking third, a veto power that would allow him and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who heads the Christian Free Patriotic Movement to control the Cabinet. Moreover, he said, the FPM would not give Cabinet confidence.

"Hariri's resignation will complicate the crisis more and more. We are on a precipice and heading down to total chaos," Amin Kammourieh, a journalist and an independent political analyst, told UPI.

Although Aoun decided to hold binding parliamentary consultations to appoint a new prime minister next Monday, it would be hard to find an acceptable Sunni personality to replace Hariri. Under Lebanon's political system, the president should be a Christian Maronite, the prime minister a Muslim Sunni and the House speaker a Muslim Shiite.

"An agreement over a new prime minister is expected to take a long time, and most probably the political leaders won't be able to name anyone," Kammourieh said. "Hariri stepped down. I wish all the others do the same...There is no salvation or solution unless they all leave."

Even if they are able to pick a new prime minister, forming a new Cabinet is not guaranteed, taking into consideration Aoun's demands and the fact that Hezbollah is in no hurry, awaiting the outcome of the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

Hariri's resignation came as a disappointment to many international players who have been urging the Lebanese leaders to swiftly form a new Cabinet and start implementing reforms as a prerequisite to unblock financial assistance and prevent the country's total collapse. All such calls, mainly by the European Union led by France, the United States, the United Nations, the World Bank and some Arab countries, have been unheeded.

According to the latest World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor released last month, Lebanon's economic crisis is likely to rank in the top 10, possibly top 3, most severe crises globally since the mid-19th century.

It cited "colossal challenges, continuous policy inaction and the absence of a fully functioning executive authority" that are further threatening dire socio-economic conditions and a fragile social peace "with no clear turning point in the horizon."

The Lebanese people, who are battling hunger and deep poverty after their national currency lost more than 90 percent of its value, do not have the luxury of time.

The international community has been showing solidarity with Lebanon, providing life-saving aid delivered directly to the population and maintaining pressure on the ruling political class.

But their efforts, including two visits by French President Emmanuel Macron over the past year, have failed to change the top leaders' positions.

"There are many pressures being exerted on Lebanon, but there is no joint effort," Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, told UPI. "The French are pressuring to have a government, the Americans are pushing, but they don't want Hezbollah in the Cabinet, while the leaders in the Gulf don't care if Hariri succeeds or not in forming a new Cabinet. Not all are focusing on the same thing."

Moreover, Bahout said that despite the dramatic situation in the country, the U.N. Security Council fell short of "recognizing that Lebanon is in a crisis that necessitates joint effort or a resolution."

"We are on hold, on an artificial respirator, waiting for many things, internally and regionally, to come together so we can have a kind of a solution, not a solution," he said. "It is scary and sad."

It is unclear whether the new French-U.S. rapprochement over Lebanon, that started with a visit of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Paris last month and the subsequent talks held by the French and U.S. ambassadors to Lebanon with the Saudi officials in Riyadh will result in a more coordinated and unified strategy.

"They are trying everything they can to avoid collapse because such a collapse will harm their own interests," a former Lebanese diplomat told UPI on condition of anonymity. "They will keep on trying but seems there is no solution."

In an interview with Al Hurra TV this week, U.S. acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Joey Hood said the United States was working on unifying international efforts in "what could be called an alliance" not only to offer incentives but also to continue exerting pressure on the Lebanese officials.

The EU is close to targeting Lebanese officials accused of corruption with sanctions, travel bans and asset freezes.

Foreign ministers from the EU's 27 member states, who met in Brussels on July 12, agreed to set up a sanctions regime for Lebanon, hoping that its legal framework will be completed by the end of July. It wasn't clear when the measure could be implemented.

"We have been hearing of the European sanctions for four months and still nothing," Bahout said. He questions what "tools" the international players will use to force the general elections scheduled for next spring, which are expected to bring new faces from the civil society, who revolted against the corrupt political class in October 2019, to the parliament.

Last year, Bassil and two former ministers, Youssef Fenianos and Ali Hassan Khalil, were hit by U.S. sanctions for engaging in corruption and making political and economic favors to Hezbollah.

However, the EU sanctions could be more "painful" to the corrupt politicians than the U.S. ones, according to the Lebanese diplomat.

"The Lebanese politicians travel more to Europe, where they have their money, properties and luxurious yachts," he said.

Until then, Lebanese political leaders are likely to continue business as usual, waiting for a U.S.-Iran settlement, Iran-Saudi new understanding, a solution to the crisis in neighboring Syria and eventually a new regional order.

Fadia Kiwan, director general of the Arab Women Organization and a political science professor, said there should be "a kind of truce and an understanding over a transition phase" with a government that could prepare for the upcoming parliamentary elections, contain the economic crisis, stop the dramatic deterioration in living conditions and curb the uncontrollable U.S. dollar's rise.

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar was traded at 23,000 Lebanese pounds compared to 1,500 LL in October 2019.

"It is not the time for big solutions but for short-term solutions to minimize the damage," Kiwan, who was named foreign minister in Hariri's last Cabinet line-up rejected by Aoun, told UPI.

FUTURE FASHION

CDC: Number of flu, other virus cases reach 'historic' lows in 2020-21


A woman walks through Times Square wearing protective goggles, latex gloves and a face mask in New York City in April 2020. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo


July 22 (UPI) -- The 2020-21 flu season was the lightest on record since at least 1997, the first year in which cases of the virus were tracked, according to data released Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Well under 1% of more than 1.1 million specimens collected from people experiencing flu-like symptoms tested positive for the seasonal virus, the agency said.

In a "typical" flu season, in which an estimated 35 million people are infected with the virus, as many as 25% of specimens tested come back positive, based on historical CDC data.

The reduction in flu cases seen between October 2020 and May 2021 is likely due to measures taken to limit the spread of COVID-19, such as the wearing of masks that cover the nose and mouth and social distancing, the CDC said.

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Like COVID-19, the flu is spread through virus droplets emitted from the mouth and nose.

"The same prevention measures we use to prevent COVID-19 disease work for the flu, including physical distancing, masking, avoiding crowds and staying home when sick," public health specialist Brandon Brown told UPI in an email.


"[This is] another reason for everyone to get the flu vaccine ASAP with return to work and return to school, which means a return to exposure," said Brown, an associate professor of social medicine population and public health at the University of California-Riverside.

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Similarly, samples testing positive for respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, which causes the common cold, dropped from 15% in the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 to between 1% and 2% throughout the rest of the year and into May, the agency reported.

Over the previous four years, rates of positive tests for this virus never fell below 3% and ranged as high as 17%, according to the CDC.

Between April 17 and May 22, the percentage of specimens testing positive for RSV increased from 1.1% to 2.8%.

During this period, many regions across the country relaxed restrictions regarding masking and large gatherings, said Brown, who was not part of the CDC analysis.

Similarly, the percentage of specimens testing positive for respiratory adenoviruses, which can also cause the common cold, as well as pneumonia, ranged from 1.2% to 2.6% between January 2020 and April of this year, before increasing to 3% in May, the CDC said.

In a typical month before the COVID-19 pandemic, this number would be as high as 15%.

It is unclear whether the "historic lows" for these and other respiratory viruses reported by the agency, will continue through the fall and winter, given that COVID-19 restrictions have been relaxed in many parts of the country, according to Brown.

However, the reduced spread of these diseases, which can cause severe illness, particularly in older adults and those with chronic health issues, shows the value of face coverings and other control measures, including vaccination, he said.

"Many countries in the world utilize face-covering as part of their daily lives, and some more specifically if they are going to be in public when they are sick," Brown said.

"Wearing a mask in public when you think you might be getting sick is a show of respect to the health of others, and it is also simple and something that we can all utilize when inside in public spaces or outside with large crowds, to prevent a number of respiratory viruses," he said.

'Cli-fi': Climate change in literature

The climate fiction genre has at times eerily presaged the future. Yet it also reflects our present reality. Here are some titles to check out.



'Something New Under the Sun' by Alexandra Kleeman (2021)

When a novelist heads to Hollywood to oversee the film adaptation of one of his books, he experiences drought and wildfire. He also stumbles upon a mysterious brand of synthetic water that everyone is sipping in LA and a tiny pale blue flower that curiously survives the wildfires. Capitalism, corruption, climate change and conspiracy theories are the ingredients for this new release.

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Egypt: 'Facebook Girl' may be free, but oppression remains rife

Despite the release of prominent imprisoned activists, the situation of dissidents in Egypt remains dire. The latest arrests suggest that Egypt is continuing its clampdown on critics.

Egypt's 'Facebook Girl,' Esraa Abdel Fattah, after her release


This week's Muslim holiday, Eid al-Adha, brought great news to around 40 detainees in Cairo's prisons: that they were free to go. Among them were three popular journalists and three human rights activists.

However, these releases don't yet mean they have been acquitted: All 40 still have to appear in court at trials slated for at some time later this year.

One of those freed was the country's well-known "Facebook Girl", Esraa Abdel-Fattah. This 43-year-old blogger and Nobel Peace Prize nominee spent almost two years in pretrial detention for "disseminating false news and anti-state charges."

Also released was the regime-critical Egyptian journalist Gamal el-Gamal, who lived in Turkey for four years, hosting a TV show and being active on Facebook. He was taken into custody upon his arrival at Cairo's International Airport earlier this year.

"I welcome with a very warm heart the recent releases. Two of them are people that I've known personally for over a decade. I can't tell you how ecstatic I am, but I'm also confident that this is not a permanent solution. I'm glad that we got these people out, but there are plenty more inside," Ramy Yaacoub, executive director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy in Washington, DC, told DW on the phone.

Clampdown overshadows releases

The recent release of activists and journalists is in stark contrast to the ongoing clampdown on dissidents in Egypt. This week, the former editor-in-chief of the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, Abdel Naser Salama, was detained on terrorism and false news charges. Last week, a trial at Egypt's highest criminal court, the Court of Cassation, continued against six other activists and journalists, including former lawmaker Zyad el-Elaimy.



Egypt also shows no mercy to members of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, which was designated as a terrorist group in 2013. This June, the death verdict for 12 Egyptian members was upheld. Their families have now started a social media campaign under the hashtag #StopEgyExecutions to protest against the verdict and raise attention.

Egypt's deceased ex-President Mohamed Morsi was one of the most prominent Muslim Brotherhood members

One of these convicted men is Mohamed El-Beltagy, a prominent figure of the 2011 Egyptian revolution. His wife, Sana Abd Al-Gawad, has written a letter, of which DW received a copy. In it, she accuses the Egyptian regime of denying basic human rights to the detained.

"Recently, the military regime sentenced my husband to death in a final decision, while my husband — and dozens of leaders of activists — for years are being subjected to slow and systematic killing, where they are denied their most basic rights to life and the means of survival," the letter says.

Human Rights Watch estimates that about 60,000 people are currently jailed in Egypt on political grounds. The country also topped Amnesty International's list of nations with the most death sentences and executions in 2020: Egypt's numbers more than tripled from 32 in 2019 to 107 executions the following year.
Clearly concern from Washington

The recent detentions and convictions have drawn attention — above all, from Egypt's powerful ally, the US. Last week, Ned Price, the Department of State's spokesperson, voiced concern over Egypt's politically motivated indictment against Hossam Bahgat, a prominent investigative journalist and the director-general of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights (EIPR).

US State Department spokesman Ned Price addressed the human rights situation in Egypt with remarkably sharp words

"We believe all people should be allowed to express their political views freely, to assemble and associate peacefully. As a strategic partner, we have raised these concerns with the Egyptian government, and we will continue to do so going forward," Price said in a press briefing. Price made it clear that the US will not "overlook human rights in the name of security, stability, any other interests that we might have. Our values and our interests are both of tremendous importance to us, and this administration is not prepared to sacrifice one for the other."

Asked at the press conference if the issue could affect a planned arms package for Egypt, Price said: "Human rights across the board is something we look at very closely in making those decisions."

This is in line with the vows made as a candidate by current US President Joe Biden that "there would be no more "blank checks" for the Egyptian president, who had become a close ally of Biden's predecessor, Donald Trump.

ICONS OF EGYPT'S 2011 REVOLUTION: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

Wael Ghonim: From inspiration to despair

Wael Ghonim was in Dubai when he created a Facebook page called "We are all Khaled Said." Ghonim knew Said, a 28-year-old blogger who was beaten to death by police. The page played an organizing role in the January protests. Since 2014, Ghonim has lived in the US. Now 40, his online commentary suggests he's depressed and disillusioned about the situation in Egypt. 123456789

Egypt's trump cards

"International pressure could certainly get President el-Sissi and the Egyptian government to change their behavior. But the truth is, we haven't seen anyone attempt that seriously," Mohamed El Dahshan, associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Programme, told DW on the phone.

"The last time someone made a half-hearted attempt at using their clout to influence the Egyptian government on the human rights dossier, they did not follow through. And essentially, the Egyptian government called their bluff," he said.

Egypt also holds a few trump cards with which it can arm itself against pressure from Washington: The country is considered a reliable partner in the fight against terrorism, US warships and military vessels enjoy preferential treatment when passing through the Suez Canal and military aircraft can pass through Egyptian airspace unhindered. In addition, Egypt is an important mediator in the Middle East conflict and was recently praised by the US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, for brokering a peace deal between the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas and Israel.
Egypt's potential new allies

Furthermore, Egypt also has other powerful partners, as Ramy Yaacoub of the Tahrir Institute points out: "The United States' relationship with Egypt is a bilateral relationship and a multifaceted one, and the United States' interest is for Egypt to not go seeking out buying more weapons from Russia or France or China."

Yaacoub sees other ways as being more likely to convince Egypt to heed the United States. "Egypt is in much dire need of help — for example, in the GERD, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue with Ethiopia, or via educational grants and programs that could be awarded and perhaps used in that kind of soft power approach that could be encouraged," Yaacoub said. "So there are other soft-power ways that could be helpful. I'm not saying that they are as effective, but it needs to be a package of tools that are used rather than just one thing or one threat,"

At any rate, it remains to be seen whether Cairo will turn human rights into a new trademark — or whether the recent releases will have to be seen merely as exceptions brought about by the annual holiday.