Friday, September 03, 2021

Strong opposition from food lobby to Transport for London advertising


New research shows how Transport for London faced strong opposition from large food companies to its 2019 ban on advertising foods high in fat, sugar or salt


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BATH

Even though 82% of the public welcomed Transport for London’s (TfL) 2019 ban on advertising foods high in fat, sugar or salt, the Greater London Authority (GLA) faced strong opposition from large food companies and the advertisers who run their campaigns. 

Small food businesses and those not primarily involved in the production of ultra-processed foods were largely in favour of the ban, which was introduced to create a healthier food environment for London’s children.

This is according to data acquired through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests, analysed by researchers at the University of Bath and published today [2 September] in PLOS Medicine.

The researchers found that opponents to the ban challenged it on multiple grounds, tried to increase their role in the policy process, and shared their own evidence with officials, while suppressing or undermining independent evidence that supported the policy.

Despite significant commercial opposition, the ban went ahead, which the researchers consider a positive precedent for other public authorities planning similar bans. Some, including Bristol, have already followed suit, and introduced advertising restrictions on advertising space they own. However, they warn other authorities to be vigilant to opposition from the food industry.

Attempts by corporations to derail marketing regulations for tobacco and alcohol are well-documented, and this research suggests that many of the tactics used by food companies are taken from the same ‘playbook’. These include direct lobbying, using coalitions to deliver their messaging and establish alternative routes for access, downplaying policy benefits, and exaggerating potential negative effects.

Companies and business groups fed into the policy process by responding to the public London Food Strategy consultation. Some were proactively encouraged by GLA officials to participate as part of their stakeholder engagement process, which included meetings with policymakers. The Freedom of Information data obtained by the researchers suggests that, in the lead-up to the introduction of the advertising ban, GLA officials had up to eight meetings or calls per month with large food and advertising industry representatives.

The London Child Obesity Taskforce, though not directly involved in the development of the restrictions, appeared to be seen as an important access point by companies. McDonald’s, for instance, contacted the Taskforce as early as April 2018 and later applied to become a member, although correspondence suggests that it was unsuccessful because it applied late.

While some meetings were formally listed as part of the consultation process, there were also informal interactions. Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC), for instance, participated in multiple calls with the Taskforce and GLA staff, and invited a Taskforce member on a ‘magical mystery tour’ of London eateries and a tour of Brixton. The company also sent the same official an invitation to its annual ‘Restaurant General Manager Fest’.

Multiple emails suggest that KFC offered to collaborate with the Taskforce. However, the researchers could not determine the nature of the collaboration due to redactions and because minutes of the relevant meetings were not shared publicly.

Many respondents started their consultation submissions supportively – Uber Eats, for example, said it supported the Mayor’s plan to reduce obesity ‘in general’ and McDonald’s that it understood the need for regulation ‘in essence’ – but went on to oppose the ban.

While most food companies focused on claims that the policy would hurt smaller, more vulnerable businesses, Subway focused on the potential cost to its own business, estimating that the advertising restrictions would lead directly ‘to a reduction in footfall and business performance’. This contradicts other claims that the policy would not work to reduce consumption of unhealthy products.

Similarly, industry representatives warned that the policy would harm TfL and the local economy. In fact, TfL revenue increased slightly after the introduction of the advertising ban.

Not all business groups were fully transparent about their relationships. For instance, the British 
Takeaway Campaign lists Just Eat as a member, but its submission and public website failed to 
mention that it was founded by a PR agency on behalf of Just Eat.

Coalition-building was common, with advertising companies coalescing around advertising industry body Outsmart. Several companies referred to or used sections of the association’s response in their own statement.

Others attempted to undermine the restrictions by challenging the substantial evidence base without providing robust evidence of their own to back up these challenges. For example, the British Soft Drink Association claimed that ‘academic research has consistently failed to establish a direct link between food and drink marketing and childhood obesity, therefore we are not convinced by the proportionality of further restrictions.’

Similarly, McDonald’s argued that the evidence base was insufficient and offered to support ‘a London wide study of the causes of obesity’, with money and expertise.

Some companies and business associations shared research they had conducted or commissioned themselves. For example, emails suggest that KFC hired an agency to research ‘youth eating and snacking behaviour’ and invited officials to a research debrief at the offices of APCO, a registered lobbyist for KFC.

Outsmart and two other advertising industry members hinted at the potential for a legal challenge in their consultation responses. Outsmart wrote to GLA officials asking for the policy to be delayed by extending its implementation period, saying ‘we believe it would need to be at least six months after any policy announcement is made to prevent the threat of legal action’.

Speaking about the findings, the lead author Kathrin Lauber from the Tobacco Control Research 
Group at the University of Bath said: “The claims made by the industry actors who opposed the policy are largely not aligned with independent public health evidence but reminiscent of arguments commonly made in debates about the regulation of other unhealthy commodities such as tobacco and alcohol. Public health policymakers should rethink if and how they want to engage with companies whose commercial interests clearly stand in conflict with the policy objective.”

Dev Sharma, Chair of Bite Back 2030's Youth Board, said: “Billions are being spent giving junk food a starring role in children’s minds with advertising, marketing and promotions. I'm 16 and I’m being bombarded with junk food ads on my phone and computer, and I’m pretty sure it’s getting worse.

“They are everywhere, popping up when we’re watching videos, when I’m gaming with friends, and we don’t have an escape, especially not at the moment when we are living on our screens. It’s time to prioritise child health and take junk food out of the spotlight.”

Fran Bernhardt, Children’s Food Campaign Coordinator for Sustain, added: “This research uncovers companies’ enormous efforts to undermine and stall this policy. If only that resource and creativity could be redirected into healthier adverts, more time could be spent making local spaces better for all children to grow up in.

“As national junk food advertising restrictions come into play, companies may now be turning more attention to local advertising. So, it’s crucial that local government are aware of these tactics and have more support to put in place similar advertising policies to protect children’s health."

Caroline Cerny of the Obesity Health Alliance added: “It’s clear from this research that food 
companies put in phenomenal effort and resource to opposing a public health policy. What’s 
concerning is how much of this lobbying effort is conducted under the radar. It’s likely that the public lobbying we are seeing from industry against new Government plans to restrict junk food adverts on TV and online are also just the tip of the iceberg and it’s vital the Government sticks firmly to its plans to protect children from unhealthy food advertising.’

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To arrange interviews with Kathrin Lauber please email press@bath.ac.uk

Kathrin Lauber is a PhD student with the Tobacco Control Research Group at the University of Bath

For interviews with other partners involved see contacts below:

Dev Sharma is Chair of Bite Back 2030's Youth Board. Winner of the 2020 Diana Award for his work fighting food poverty, he is the Member of Youth Parliament for Leicestershire; email 
leigh.boobyer@biteback2030.com  

Fran Bernhardt is the children’s food campaign coordinator for Sustain: the alliance for better food and farming; email fran@sustainweb.org

Caroline Cerny is the alliance lead at Obesity Health Alliance; email 
press@obesityhealthalliance.org.uk

The paper: Lauber K, Hunt D, Gilmore A, Rutter H, ‘Corporate political activity in opposition to unhealthy food and drink advertising restrictions across Transport for London: A qualitative case 
study’ is published in PLOS Medicine: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003695

NOTES

The University of Bath is one of the UK's leading universities both in terms of research and our 
reputation for excellence in teaching, learning and graduate prospects.

The University is rated Gold in the Teaching Excellence Framework (TEF), the Government’s 
assessment of teaching quality in universities, meaning its teaching is of the highest quality in the UK.

In the Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2014 research assessment 87 per cent of our research was defined as ‘world-leading’ or ‘internationally excellent’. From developing fuel efficient cars of the future, to identifying infectious diseases more quickly, or working to improve the lives of female farmers in West Africa, research from Bath is making a difference around the world. Find out more: https://www.bath.ac.uk/topics/research/

Well established as a nurturing environment for enterprising minds, Bath is ranked highly in all 
national league tables. We are ranked 6th in the UK by The Guardian University Guide 2021, and 9th in The Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2021 and 10th in the Complete University Guide 2021. Our sports offering was rated as being in the world’s top 10 in the QS World University Rankings by Subject in 2021.

 

Managing ecosystems under climate change requires adaptive, translational approaches


Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (AAAS)

In a Perspective, Stephen Jackson argues that a static view of ecosystem processes is no longer sufficient to inform conservation and natural resource management approaches. As climate change continues unabated, the management of ecosystems vulnerable to transformation requires novel adaptive and translational approaches. According to Jackson, a science of “transformational ecology” is needed to address related challenges. In the face of our changing climate, landscapes worldwide are changing – temperate forests across the Northern Hemisphere are giving way to shrublands while new forests are beginning to take hold in the Arctic tundra. While these observable changes have received increasing scientific attention, much of it has focused on identifying tipping points between stable ecological states. However, ecological transformation is a highly dynamic and complex process and can occur gradually over a variety of timescales. What’s more, existing cultural, political, historical, and institutional barriers are deeply embedded in conservation practice and resource management, making changes in current approaches particularly difficult. Nonetheless, Jackson shows how adaptive learning, creative approaches and close partnerships between scientists, decisionmakers and stakeholders are needed to address the uncertainties imposed by shifting ecological states. “Ecosystem transformation will characterize the globe for the foreseeable future, and many ecosystems emerging today will be transient, yielding to further transformation as climate change continues and ecological processes at different temporal scales keep pace,” Jackson writes. “Implementing effective, adaptative approaches to understanding and managing those transformations is an urgent challenge for the scientific, management and policy communities.”

 

Rapid Arctic warming likely drives extreme winter weather events in the US


Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (AAAS)

Amid debate about the influence of changes in the Arctic on extreme weather elsewhere, a new study reports that rapid warming in the Arctic is a likely driver of the recent extreme winter weather in the United States. The findings, based on both observational and modeling data, establish a physical link between anthropogenic climate change and a phenomenon called the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruption. While climate warming is anticipated to lead to increases in some weather extremes, including heat waves and precipitation events, it’s not widely considered to drive severe winter weather events. However, contrary to climate model predictions, winter weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere – intense snowfall events and anomalous cold snaps – have reportedly become more frequent. One notable example of this is the U.S. Southern Plains cold wave of February 2021, which resulted in the collapse of the Texas energy grid and record damages estimated at nearly USD 200 billion, a cost substantially higher than recent high-impact hurricanes. It’s hypothesized that accelerated warming in the Arctic, or Arctic amplification (AA), is driving these events by disrupting the Arctic SPV – an atmospheric feature defined by the strong westerly winds that encircle the Arctic and, under normal conditions, keep its cold air contained. Whether AA and its impact on the SPV variability are physically linked to recent winter weather extremes has been unclear; observations and model predictions lack agreement. Building on previous work concerning SPV variability, Judah Cohen and colleagues combine observational analyses of the SPV over the last forty years with new climate model experiments. They reveal a physical link that implicates rapid Arctic warming and its effects, namely sea ice loss and increased Eurasian snow cover, with SPV disruption and the increased frequency of extreme mid-latitude winter weather. The results could be used to extend the warning lead time of cold extremes in Asia, Canada, and the United States, the authors say. “Future work should aim at further disentangling causal Arctic teleconnections for the cold and warm seasons in the mid-latitude regions, paying specific attention to high-impact extremes,” writes Dim Coumou in a related Perspective.

 

Cavalier King Charles spaniels carry more harmful genetic variants than other breeds


Genomic study also identified genetic variants linked to a common heart condition in the breed

Peer-Reviewed Publication

PLOS

Cavalier King Charles spaniels carry more harmful genetic variants than other breeds 

IMAGE: COMPARISONS OF DACHSHUNDS WITH AND WITHOUT SIGNS OF HEART DISEASE WERE USED TO HELP IDENTIFY MUTATIONS THAT POTENTIALLY PREDISPOSE CAVALIER KING CHARLES SPANIELS TO DEVELOP MMVD view more 

CREDIT: MÃ…NS ENGELBREKTSSON, SWEDISH KENNEL CLUB, CC-BY 4.0 (HTTPS://CREATIVECOMMONS.ORG/LICENSES/BY/4.0/)

Recent dog breeding practices have loaded up cavalier King Charles spaniels with disease-causing mutations, including variants linked to the common heart condition, myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD). Erik Axelsson of Uppsala University and colleagues published these new findings September 2nd in the journal PLOS Genetics.

The past 300 years of dog breeding have created an incredible diversity of breeds with various sizes, shapes, and abilities. Unfortunately, this process has also caused many breeds to become more inbred and more likely to inherit genetic diseases. The study's researchers wanted to know whether recent breeding practices had increased the number of disease-causing variants in dogs. They sequenced entire genomes from 20 dogs from eight common breeds, such as beagles, German shepherds, and golden retrievers. They found that the cavalier King Charles spaniel, which experienced the most intense breeding, carried more harmful genetic variants than the other breeds they examined.

The researchers also looked for genetic variants in the cavalier King Charles spaniel genomes linked to MMVD. In this condition, the mitral valve in the heart degenerates, allowing blood to leak from the left ventricle back into the left atrium. They identified two genetic variants linked to the disease, which appear to regulate a gene that codes for a common protein in heart muscle. The findings offer a potential explanation for why the cavalier King Charles spaniel is predisposed to develop the disease.

The especially large number of potentially harmful genes in the genomes of cavalier King Charles spaniels, compared to other dogs, likely resulted from its breeding history. Records suggest that small spaniel-type dogs have existed for at least 1,000 years and were popular at royal courts for several hundred years throughout Asia and Europe, including at the court of King Charles II (1630-1685).  These spaniels experienced several "bottlenecks" where only a small percentage of the population passed on their genes to the next generation. The bottlenecks may have made the harmful genes more common in the cavalier King Charles spaniel genome before the dog achieved recognition as a breed in 1945.

Axelsson adds, “We find that recent breeding may have led to an accelerated accumulation of harmful mutations in certain dog breeds. In the Cavalier King Charles spaniel specifically, one or several of these mutations affect heart muscle protein NEBL and may predispose this breed to devastating heart disease.”

 

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In your coverage please use this URL to provide access to the freely available article in PLOS Genetics:

http://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.1009726

Citation: Axelsson E, Ljungvall I, Bhoumik P, Conn LB, Muren E, Ohlsson Ã…, et al. (2021) The genetic consequences of dog breed formation—Accumulation of deleterious genetic variation and fixation of mutations associated with myxomatous mitral valve disease in cavalier King Charles spaniels. PLoS Genet 17(9): e1009726. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgen.1009726

Funding: Funding from Elanco (previously Novartis Animal Health) to KLT covered the generation of WGS data and parts of EA’s salary. Elanco (previously Novartis Animal Health) influenced the choice of dog breeds sequenced in this study, participated in data analysis and edited and reviewed the manuscript. Two grants from the Agria and SKK Research Foundation, one to IL (19969) and one to RH (P2011-0021), provided funding for sampling of dogs. EA was funded by a grant from the Swedish Research council (2016-03826) and a grant from FORMAS (2016-01312), both of which contributed to EA’s salary. KLT is a Distinguished Professor at the Swedish Research Council (D0816101). PB’s salary was funded by a Novartis postdoctoral fellowship (https://www.novartis.com/our-science/postdoc-program). With the exception of Elanco (see above) the funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

 

Indian wolf among world’s most endangered and distinct wolves


Scientists sequence Indian wolf genome for 1st time

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - DAVIS

Gray wolf illustration 

IMAGE: THIS ILLUSTRATION INDICATES THE RANGES OF HOLARCTIC, TIBETAN AND INDIAN WOLF POPULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. view more 

CREDIT: LLLUSTRATION BY LAUREN HENNELLY, UC DAVIS

The Indian wolf could be far more endangered than previously recognized, according to a study from the University of California, Davis, and the scientists who sequenced the Indian wolf’s genome for the first time. 

The findings, published in the journal Molecular Ecology, reveal the Indian wolf to be one of the world’s most endangered and evolutionarily distinct gray wolf populations. The study indicates that Indian wolves could represent the most ancient surviving lineage of wolves.

The Indian wolf is restricted to lowland India and Pakistan, where its grassland habitat is threatened primarily by human encroachment and land conversion.

“Wolves are one of the last remaining large carnivores in Pakistan, and many of India’s large carnivores are endangered,” said lead author Lauren Hennelly, a doctoral student with the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine’s Mammalian Ecology Conservation Unit. “I hope that knowing they are so unique and found only there will inspire local people and scientists to learn more about conserving these wolves and grassland habitats.” 


CAPTION

Stemming from an ancient lineage, Indian wolves are one of the most evolutionarily distinct and endangered gray wolf populations.

CREDIT

Mihir Godbole/The Grasslands Trust

‘A game-changer’

The authors sequenced genomes of four Indian and two Tibetan wolves and included 31 additional canid genomes to resolve their evolutionary and phylogenomic history. They found that Tibetan and Indian wolves are distinct from each other and from other wolf populations.

The study recommends that Indian and Tibetan wolf populations be recognized as evolutionarily significant units, an interim designation that would help prioritize their conservation while their taxonomic classification is reevaluated.

“This paper may be a game-changer for the species to persist in these landscapes,” said co-author Bilal Habib, a conservation biologist with the Wildlife Institute of India. “People may realize that the species with whom we have been sharing the landscape is the most distantly divergent wolf alive today.”

Indian and western Asian wolf populations are currently considered as one population. The study’s finding that Indian wolves are distinct from western Asian wolves indicates their distribution is much smaller than previously thought.

An ancient lineage

Gray wolves are one of the most widely distributed land mammals in the world, found in snow, forests, deserts and grasslands of the Northern Hemisphere. Wolves may have survived the ice ages in isolated regions called refugia, potentially diverging into distinct evolutionarily lineages.

Recent genomic studies confirmed that the Tibetan wolf is an ancient and distinct evolutionary lineage. However, until this study, what was known about the evolutionary history of Indian wolves was based on mitochondrial DNA evidence, which is inherited only from the mother. That evidence suggested that the Indian wolf diverged more recently than the Tibetan wolf.

In contrast, this study used the entire genome — the nuclear DNA containing nearly all of the genes reflecting the wolf’s evolutionary history. It showed that the Indian wolf was likely even more divergent than the Tibetan wolf.

“Mitochondrial sequencing alone was not sufficient to make a case,” said senior author Ben Sacks, director of the Mammalian and Ecology Conservation Unit at UC Davis. “Nuclear DNA is the big picture, and it changes the picture. You might assume most genetic diversity of gray wolves is in the northern region, where most wolves are found today. But these southern populations harbor most of the evolutionary diversity and are also the most endangered.”

Both Tibetan and Indian wolves stem from an ancient lineage that predates the rise of Holarctic wolves, found in North America and Eurasia. Sacks said this study indicates Indian wolves could represent the most ancient surviving lineage.

Indian wolf map (IMAGE)

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - DAVIS


Charismatic competition

Attention for gray wolves in India is often eclipsed by animals considered more charismatic, such as tigers, lions and leopards. Hennelly, who dreamed of being a wolf biologist in fifth grade, was not aware there were wolves in the region until she conducted field work on birds in the Himalayas. When the opportunity to study wolf howls and behavior in India arose as a Fulbright scholar, she jumped at the chance and began the work and collaborations that led to her team becoming the first to sequence the Indian wolf’s genome. 

“I knew that if we sequenced the wolves and the results indicated a divergent lineage, answering that question could really help their conservation at a policy scale that could trickle down and bolster local efforts to help protect these wolves,” Hennelly said.

A separate study led by Sacks about endangered red wolves appears on the cover of the same Molecular Ecology issue in September. Addressing a 30-year-long controversy, that study shows that red wolves are not a colonial-era hybrid between gray wolves and coyotes, as some have argued, but the descendant of a pre-historic North American wolf that diverged from coyotes over 20,000 years ago. Both studies have substantial implications for wolf conservation.

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The Indian wolf study was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of India, the Wildlife Institute of India, UK Wolf Conservation Trust and UC Davis. Hennelly was also supported by fellowship grants from National Science Foundation and UC Davis.​​ The red wolf study was funded by a variety of sources, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

 

Natural exposure to wildfire smoke increased pregnancy loss in rhesus macaques


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - DAVIS

Natural Exposure to Wildfire Smoke Increased Pregnancy Loss in Rhesus Macaques 

IMAGE: RHESUS MACAQUE MOTHERS WITH INFANTS AT THE CALIFORNIA NATIONAL PRIMATE RESEARCH CENTER. THE 2018 BREEDING SEASON COINCIDED WITH THE PEAK OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE CAMP FIRE, WITH A REDUCED RATE OF LIVE BIRTHS THE FOLLOWING SPRING. view more 

CREDIT: CALIFORNIA NATIONAL PRIMATE RESEARCH CENTER

Rhesus macaques naturally exposed to wildfire smoke early in pregnancy had an increased rate of miscarriage, according to new research from the California National Primate Research Center at the University of California, Davis. The work is published online in the journal Reproductive Toxicology.

In November 2018, smoke from the Camp Fire in Paradise, California, about 100 miles away blanketed the Davis area. Air quality exceeded national limits and reached unhealthy levels. 

The disaster coincided with the peak of breeding season for the center’s colony of rhesus macaques. Hundreds of animals at the center live in outdoor corrals in large family groups. Breeding typically takes place in the fall, with offspring born in spring after an average gestation of 166 days. 

Bryn Willson, an OB/GYN resident at UC Davis Health, began the research project in collaboration with Professor Kent Pinkerton, UC Davis Center for Health and Environment, and Bill Lasley, professor emeritus at the Center for Health and Environment and School of Veterinary Medicine, and colleagues. 

The researchers randomly selected 66 female animals of reproductive age from the colony to follow for pregnancy outcomes. They were compared to pregnancies from nine previous years. 

Of the 66, 45 became pregnant while levels of smoke pollution were high, based on measurements of small particles (PM2.5). Twenty animals conceived after air quality had returned to normal levels in December. One animal did not become pregnant. 

There were 37 live births among the 45 animals exposed to wildfire smoke during early pregnancy, a rate of 82%. The average rate of live births in the previous nine years, with normal air quality, varied from 86% to 93%. The 20 animals not exposed to smoke during pregnancy all had successful live births. 

“There was an increase in miscarriage among the primates exposed to wildfire smoke during the 2018-2019 breeding season compared to primates from the nine preceding breeding seasons,” Willson said. Most pregnancies did result in a successful birth, she noted. 

Although there are some important differences, rhesus macaques are considered a useful animal model for human pregnancy. Previous studies have associated poor air quality with reduced birth weight in human babies but not with increased risk of miscarriage. 

Pregnant women a sensitive group for air quality

Pregnant women should consider themselves as being a “sensitive group” for poor air quality, she said, similar to people with asthma or other lung conditions. Willson recommended minimizing time spent outdoors when the air is unhealthy for sensitive groups, and wearing a mask that can filter fine particles. 

The study did not establish a cause for the increased rate of miscarriage, but air sampling showed that Camp Fire smoke contained both oxidized organic material — probably from burning vegetation — and phthalates, likely from burning plastic in houses or other human-made structures. Phthalates are known to be endocrine disruptors, Willson said. 

High levels of small particles (PM2.5) are known to increase morbidity overall. Previous work from the California National Primate Research Center, led by Professor Lisa Miller, UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, has shown that natural exposure of infant macaques to wildfire smoke has long-term effects on their lungs comparable to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, in humans.

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Additional co-authors on the study were: Nancy Gee at the Center for Health and Environment and California National Primate Research Center; Lijuan Li and Qi Zhang, UC Davis Department of Environmental Toxicology; and Neil Willits, Department of Statistics. Willson is currently a fellow at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles. 

Funding was provided by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health and the National Institute for Environmental Health Sciences.

 AS IF WE DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT DEPT.

Study reveals threat of catastrophic supervolcano eruptions ever-present


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CURTIN UNIVERSITY

 

Curtin scientists are part of an international research team that studied an ancient supervolcano in Indonesia and found such volcanoes remain active and hazardous for thousands of years after a super-eruption, prompting the need for a rethink of how these potentially catastrophic events are predicted.

Associate Professor Martin Danišík, lead Australian author from the John de Laeter Centre based at Curtin University, said supervolcanoes often erupted several times with intervals of tens of thousands of years between the big eruptions but it was not known what happened during the dormant periods.

“Gaining an understanding of those lengthy dormant periods will determine what we look for in young active supervolcanoes to help us predict future eruptions,” Associate Professor Danišík said.

“Super-eruptions are among the most catastrophic events in Earth’s history, venting tremendous amounts of magma almost instantaneously. They can impact global climate to the point of tipping the Earth into a ‘volcanic winter’, which is an abnormally cold period that may result in widespread famine and population disruption.

“Learning how supervolcanoes work is important for understanding the future threat of an inevitable super-eruption, which happen about once every 17,000 years.”

Associate Professor Danišík said the team investigated the fate of magma left behind after the Toba super-eruption 75,000 years ago, using the minerals feldspar and zircon, which contain independent records of time based on the accumulation of gasses argon and helium as time capsules in the volcanic rocks.

“Using these geochronological data, statistical inference and thermal modelling, we showed that magma continued to ooze out within the caldera, or deep depression created by the eruption of magma, for 5000 to 13,000 years after the super-eruption, and then the carapace of solidified left-over magma was pushed upward like a giant turtle shell,” Associate Professor Danišík said.

“The findings challenged existing knowledge and studying of eruptions, which normally involves looking for liquid magma under a volcano to assess future hazard. We must now consider that eruptions can occur even if no liquid magma is found underneath a volcano - the concept of what is ‘eruptible’ needs to be re-evaluated.

 “While a super-eruption can be regionally and globally impactful and recovery may take decades or even centuries, our results show the hazard is not over with the super-eruption and the threat of further hazards exists for many thousands of years after.

“Learning when and how eruptible magma accumulates, and in what state the magma is in before and after such eruptions, is critical for understanding supervolcanoes.”

The study was led by researchers from Oregon State University, and co-authored by researchers from Heidelberg University, the Geological Agency of Indonesia, and by Dr Jack Gillespie from Curtin’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences and The Institute for Geoscience Research (TIGeR), Curtin’s flagship earth sciences research institute.

The paper, ‘Resurgence initiation and subsolidus eruption of cold carapace of warm magma at Toba Caldera, Sumatra’, was published in journal Nature - Earth and Environmental Sciences.

 

Cost, bleeding cited as major reasons for not taking newer anti-coagulant as prescribed


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES HEALTH SCIENCES

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting oral anticoagulants such as apixaban are the most widely used medications of this type in people with atrial fibrillation, yet 26% to 45% of people fail to properly adhere to them.

 

METHOD

The researchers interviewed 42 UCLA and UCSF adults with atrial fibrillation who had been prescribed apixaban between August 2019 and July 2020 but had reported nonadherence to the medication. Of those people, 83% stopped, skipped or decreased dosing and 17% percent never took the medication.

 

FINDINGS

People with atrial fibrillation, or irregular heartbeat, who were prescribed the direct-acting oral anticoagulant apixaban cited six reasons for failing to adhere to their prescriptions:

 

  • Cost - some felt that the out-of-pocket cost was too high, physicians were not helpful in addressing their cost concerns, or physician-provided coupons did not work
  • Bleeding - some people worried about major or minor bleeding, including during activities such as hiking or construction work
  • Lack of Symptoms – some believed that they did not need to take the medication if they did not experience symptoms or the symptoms were periodic, with some believing their stroke risk was small.
  • Safe to skip doses – some believed the medication was still effective when they reduced doses from twice daily to once, and others believed that their physician gave tacit approval to occasional nonadherence when told to stop taking the medication a few days before surgery or if they experienced excess bleeding.
  • Confusion about effects - some believed that the medication was intended to reduce atrial fibrillation symptoms and were puzzled when they continued experiencing them, or felt few effects from it and wanted measurable lab results.
  • Incomplete or discordant communication – some did not tell their physician about their nonadherence, or said they were not asked about it, and others were confused by differing physician opinions.

 

IMPACT

The findings are useful in devising strategies to increase adherence to the medication.

 

AUTHORS

Dr. Derjung Tarn and Kevin Shih of UCLA, and Dr. Janice Schwartz of UCSF.

 

JOURNAL

The peer-reviewed Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published this study.

 

FUNDING

Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer funded this study.

 

Media Contact

Enrique Rivero

erivero@mednet.ucla.edu