Sunday, July 26, 2026

 

Study finds teens who start the day with breakfast eat better overall


Older teens who ate breakfast took in more nutrients and consumed less daily fat and sugar than those who skipped it, particularly when breakfasts were high in protein



American Society for Nutrition

Breakfast burrito 

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A new study showed that consuming breakfast increased the overall intake of important nutrients such as fiber, iron, zinc and choline in teens who tended to skip breakfast. Study participants received prepacked meals, with one group consuming higher-protein breakfasts, such as the one pictured.

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Credit: Emma Rose Brown, University of Texas at Austin






National Harbor, Md. (July 25, 2026) — A new study of teens around age 18 who tended to skip breakfast showed that consuming breakfast increased their overall intake of important nutrients such as fiber, iron, zinc and choline.

The researchers also found that eating breakfast reduced the intake of high-fat and high-sugar foods throughout the day when compared to those who didn’t eat breakfast. Participants who consumed higher-protein breakfasts saw even stronger benefits.

“This is one of the largest and longest tightly controlled breakfast trials in adolescents,” said Emma Rose Brown, a doctoral student under the mentorship of Heather Leidy, Ph.D., professor in the Department of Nutritional Sciences and the Department of Pediatrics - Dell Medical School at the University of Texas at Austin. “Our findings suggest that adding breakfast, particularly one rich in protein, may be an effective way to improve nutrient intake and diet quality among older adolescents.”

Brown will present the findings at NUTRITION 2026, the flagship annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition, held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C.

“Although most Americans think that breakfast is the most important meal of the day, there isn’t a lot of evidence to support this idea,” said Brown. “We wanted to see whether consuming a high-protein breakfast would increase nutrient intake and promote healthier eating throughout the day.”

The study included 128 adolescents who were between 14 and 21 years old and skipped breakfast at least six times a week. Participants were randomly assigned to eat either a normal-protein breakfast, a high-protein breakfast or to continue skipping breakfast. 

For the groups eating breakfast, the researchers prepared and packed over 18,000 meals that included breakfast foods commonly consumed by adolescents such as burritos, quesadillas, egg scrambles and smoothies. Meals for the normal protein group contained around 15 g of protein, and meals for the high-protein group contained 30 g of high-quality protein.

At the start of the study and again at 3 and 6 months, study participants in the breakfast-eating groups received a food cooler containing the prepared foods. They could eat as much or as little as they wanted to over three days. This approach allowed the researchers to precisely track intake while allowing the food to be consumed at home. It led to excellent compliance, with participants consuming the provided meals more than 90% of the time.

Researchers assessed what participants ate by asking them to recall everything they consumed over a 24-hour period and by weighing the food coolers before and after consumption. Food intake was entered into nutrition software for analysis.

The researchers found that although all the groups consumed around the same amount of calories throughout the day, those eating breakfast took in more fiber, iron, zinc and choline overall. Participants in the high-protein group also consumed more protein, iron and choline compared to those in the normal protein group. 

The study also showed that both groups who ate breakfast consumed fewer desserts, sweets and candy compared to participants who skipped breakfast.  Additional benefits were observed with the high-protein group, who ate even less added sugar compared to the other groups.

Next, the researchers plan to look at how increasing dietary protein at breakfast might affect people’s thoughts and cravings about food, specifically in young adults and adults stopping GLP‑1 medications. A better understanding of how breakfast protein affects what people eat and how much they think about food throughout the day could help inform practical strategies that support long-term, healthy weight management.

The research team conducting the study procedures included Kamille Piacquadio, Ph.D., Charlotte Griffith, Ph.D., Morgan Braden, Ph.D. and Heather Leidy, Ph.D.

Brown will present this research at 11:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EDT on Saturday, July 25, during the Protein Intake and Health Poster Session in the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center (abstract; presentation details).

Please note that abstracts presented at NUTRITION 2026 were evaluated and selected by a committee of experts but have not generally undergone the same peer review process required for publication in a scientific journal. As such, the findings presented should be considered preliminary until a peer-reviewed publication is available.

This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health under award number NIH/NIDDK R01 DK107390.


French toast breakfast 

Meals for the normal protein group contained around 15 g of protein (example pictured), and meals for the high-protein group contained 30 g of high-quality protein. Participants in the high-protein group consumed even less added sugar and more protein, iron and choline daily compared to those in the normal protein group. 

Credit

Emma Rose Brown, University of Texas at Austin


 

About NUTRITION 2026

NUTRITION 2026 is the flagship meeting of the American Society for Nutrition and the premier educational event for nutritional professionals around the globe. NUTRITION brings together lab scientists, practicing clinicians, population health researchers and community intervention investigators to identify solutions to today’s greatest nutrition challenges. This meeting also attracts rising leaders in the field, including undergraduate, graduate and medical students. NUTRITION 2026 will be held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C. https://nutrition.org/meeting/ #Nutrition2026

About the American Society for Nutrition (ASN)

ASN is the preeminent professional organization for nutrition research scientists and clinicians around the world. Founded in 1928, the society brings together the top nutrition researchers, medical practitioners, policy makers and industry leaders to advance knowledge and application of nutrition. ASN publishes four peer-reviewed journals and provides education and professional development opportunities to advance nutrition research, practice, and education. Since 2018, the American Society for Nutrition has presented NUTRITION, the leading global annual meeting for nutrition professionals. http://www.nutrition.org

Find more news briefs from NUTRITION 2026 at: https://www.eurekalert.org/newsroom/nutrition2026.

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Cafeteria menu makeover could reduce students' sugar, salt intake



Researchers work to help school meals meet new nutrition standards



University of Mississippi

Cafeteria Lunch 

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 Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's updated guidelines for school lunches, researchers at the Institute of Child Nutrition studied which cafeteria foods students eat most often and how much sodium and sugar those foods contain. Substituting excess sugar and salt with herbs and spices could keep the flavor while making the meals healthier. 

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Credit: Photo by Srijita Chattopadhyay/Ole Miss Digital Imaging Services





Pizza, pastries and parfaits are staples in many school cafeterias. But new research from the University of Mississippi and the University of Southern Mississippi suggests some of students' favorite meals may contain more sodium and sugar than schools will be allowed to serve under updated federal nutrition standards.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will require schools across the United States to reduce sodium and added sugars in meals by fall 2027. A new study published in Nutrition Reviews aimed to identify which popular menu items are highest in sodium and sugar, giving school officials a starting point for creating healthier menus.

School meals are designed to meet nutrition standards, and for many children, they are among the most balanced meals they eat," said Aleshia Hall-Campbell, executive director of the Institute of Child Nutrition at Ole Miss. "But because students may eat school breakfast and lunch many times each week, the nutrition quality of those meals matters.

"Reducing added sugars and sodium is not about blaming school meals. It is about using school meals as an opportunity to support children's health while still serving foods students enjoy."

The researchers aimed to create healthier versions of students' preferred meals that adhere to updated guidelines for the National School Lunch Program and School Breakfast Program, said Ruaa Al Juboori, assistant professor of public health and data analytics statistician.

"For families, the practical point is that these changes are not about taking away foods students enjoy," she said. "They are about making the foods already served in schools a little healthier while keeping them familiar, flavorful and appealing to students.

"This matters because school meals reach many children every day. For students who eat breakfast and lunch at school, even small changes in added sugar and sodium can make a difference over time."

To make students' favorite foods healthier, the researchers surveyed 1,071 school nutrition professionals to determine what schools serve and what students eat most often. Then they reviewed recipes for those cafeteria items – such as pizza, smoothies, yogurt parfaits, muffins and chicken wings – to identify which foods contained the highest amounts of sugar and sodium.

For example, flavored chicken wings recipes average more than 2,100 milligrams of sodium per serving. The USDA's Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommends adults eat no more than 2,300 milligrams of sodium per day.

Excess sodium intake over time is linked to high blood pressure, a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Because many students eat school meals every weekday, researchers say even modest reductions in sodium could have meaningful long-term health benefits.

Substituting herbs and spices for excess salt and sugar can make recipes healthier. But those improved recipes will succeed only if students will eat them, the researchers said.

"While sodium and sugar make foods taste good, herbs and spices can also add flavor to the foods we eat," said Marjuyua Lartey Gibson, director of the institute's Applied Research Division at Southern Miss. "School nutrition professionals should explore flavor enhancers, such as spices like cinnamon, nutmeg and ginger for sweetness, and salt substitutes like herbs – rosemary, thyme, garlic and paprika – to minimize sodium.

"Taste testing and student feedback are also important, because the best recipe change is one that students will actually eat."

While the primary goal of the research was to help schools meet nutrition guidelines, the long-term impact of improving cafeteria offerings is improving student health.

"School meals alone do not determine a child's lifelong eating habits, but they can play an important role," Hall-Campbell said. "Children are exposed to foods at school again and again, so school meals can help shape what students see as normal, familiar and acceptable.

"That is why balance is important. We want students to enjoy their meals, but we also want them to become familiar with foods that are lower in added sugar and sodium and still taste good."

This material is based on work supported by the USDA grant no. FNS-CN-ICN-FY23.


 

Photo-based calorie-tracking apps may underestimate energy in meals



Study examining four AI-powered apps found that calories and fat content were underestimated by roughly one-third




American Society for Nutrition





National Harbor, Md. (July 25, 2026) — Thanks to advances in AI, popular calorie-tracking apps can now use a photo of a meal to estimate the nutritional content of what you’re eating. Although these apps are convenient, a new study found that four photo-based apps underestimated the calories and fat content of meals by about a third.

Photo-based calorie tracking uses AI image recognition to identify foods in a meal photo and estimate portion sizes. This information is then compared with nutrition databases to calculate estimated calories and nutrients.

“Photo-based calorie tracking apps are very popular, especially for people trying to manage their health or lose weight,” said Aaron Hengist, a postdoctoral visiting fellow with the Intramural Program of the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), part of the National Institutes of Health. “However, the accuracy of many of these apps has not been thoroughly evaluated. Our study helps address this question by looking at whether these apps can reliably estimate calories.”

Olivia Charles, a postbaccalaureate intramural research training fellow at NIDDK, will present the findings at NUTRITION 2026, the flagship annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition, held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C.

The new research is part of a larger diet study at the NIH Clinical Center examining how the body processes nutrients when a person eats a low-carbohydrate (ketogenic) or standard diet. Meals for this clinical trial are prepared in a controlled metabolic kitchen, a type of research kitchen where ingredients are carefully weighed to the nearest 0.1 gram.

To evaluate how well photo-based calorie-tracking apps estimate nutritional content from images, the researchers acquired standardized photos of 102 meals prepared as part of the diet study and then ran them through the MyFitnessPal, LoseIt!, CalAI and Appediet apps.

“By using meals prepared in a tightly controlled metabolic kitchen, we were able to compare the apps’ estimates against a precise reference,” said Hengist. “This kind of direct, high-quality comparison hasn’t been available before.”

All four apps underestimated the calorie content of meals by about 250 to 345 calories, on average, and fat by about 30 grams. The analysis also showed that the MyFitnessPal and LoseIt! apps estimated the energy content of higher-calorie meals more accurately than lower-calorie meals and that all four apps estimated carbohydrates more consistently than other macronutrients.

“People using a photo-based tracking app without adjusting the portions or entering the amounts of food should take the results with a grain of salt,” said Hengist. “These apps tend to underestimate calories, especially from fats, so what they actually ate is likely higher than what the app shows.”

After performing the initial analysis, the researchers examined more than 200 additional meals to better understand what might affect the accuracy of the apps. Their early results suggest that the apps struggle more with meals that are part of a low-carb ketogenic diet, likely because the higher fat content of these meals tends to be consistently underestimated.

The investigators say that combining photo-based features with more traditional methods of measuring diet quality could improve the real-world accuracy of calorie-tracking apps.

Charles will present this research at 4:42 – 4:54 p.m. EDT on Saturday, July 25, during the President's Oral Session in the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center (abstract; presentation details).

Please note that abstracts presented at NUTRITION 2026 were evaluated and selected by a committee of experts but have not generally undergone the same peer review process required for publication in a scientific journal. As such, the findings presented should be considered preliminary until a peer-reviewed publication is available.

Images available.

 

About NUTRITION 2026

NUTRITION 2026 is the flagship meeting of the American Society for Nutrition and the premier educational event for nutritional professionals around the globe. NUTRITION brings together lab scientists, practicing clinicians, population health researchers and community intervention investigators to identify solutions to today’s greatest nutrition challenges. The meeting also attracts rising leaders in the field, including undergraduate, graduate and medical students. NUTRITION 2026 will be held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C. https://nutrition.org/meeting/ #Nutrition2026

About the American Society for Nutrition (ASN)

ASN is the preeminent professional organization for nutrition research scientists and clinicians around the world. Founded in 1928, the society brings together the top nutrition researchers, medical practitioners, policy makers and industry leaders to advance knowledge and application of nutrition. ASN publishes four peer-reviewed journals and provides education and professional development opportunities to advance nutrition research, practice, and education. Since 2018, the American Society for Nutrition has presented NUTRITION, the leading global annual meeting for nutrition professionals. http://www.nutrition.org

Find more news briefs from NUTRITION 2026 at: https://www.eurekalert.org/newsroom/nutrition2026.

 

Could sparkling water be a better choice for your teeth?



Study finds unsweetened sparkling water lowers oral pH less than sugar-sweetened soda




American Society for Nutrition

Sparkling water pH testing 

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In a new study, researchers found that sparkling water lowered mouth acidity less than sugar-sweetened soda.

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Credit: Wajiha Zulfiqar, Purdue University




National Harbor, Md. (July 26, 2026) — Findings from a new study comparing the effects of different beverages on mouth acidity suggest that unsweetened sparkling water may be better for your teeth than sugar-sweetened soda.

When the mouth’s pH drops below about 5.5, acids begin to dissolve tooth enamel. The new study looked beyond beverage acidity itself and showed that although sparkling water lowers the mouth’s pH, it does so less than soda.

“Many people are switching from soda to sparkling water, and our findings suggest that unsweetened sparkling water may be a lower-risk alternative to soda, when consumed in moderation and alongside good oral hygiene practices,” said Wajiha Zulfiqar, a graduate student in Nutrition Science at Purdue University.

Zulfiqar will present the findings at NUTRITION 2026, the flagship annual meeting of the American Society for Nutrition, held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C.

Although studies have shown that sugar-sweetened soda can contribute to dental erosion by lowering the pH in the mouth below 5.5, less is known about how unsweetened sparkling waters affect oral acidity.

To find out more, the researchers measured how sugar-sweetened soda, regular sparkling water, calcium-fortified sparkling water and plain water affected mouth acidity — or salivary pH — in 20 adults. They used the same study participants for all the beverages to help minimize differences between individuals that could affect results.

“Directly comparing different beverages using the same experimental framework allowed us to evaluate the effects of sparkling water relative to both soda — a higher-risk beverage — and plain water as a neutral reference,” said Zulfiqar. “Additionally, by measuring how the mouth responded in real time, rather than only testing beverage acidity alone as other studies have done, our study provides a more realistic understanding of how these drinks may impact oral health.”

The researchers found that the soda made the mouth the most acidic, leading to a salivary pH that was significantly lower than that of water at both 2 and 20 minutes after consumption. Unsweetened sparkling water without calcium caused a temporary decrease in salivary pH at 2 minutes, whereas calcium-fortified sparkling water showed a decrease at 5 minutes. For both beverages, salivary pH returned to near baseline levels by 20 minutes.

They also found that, after consuming both the soda and the sparkling waters, saliva quickly restored the mouth’s acidity to normal, keeping pH above the level that causes enamel damage. The researchers note that the study only measured short-term changes in salivary pH. In real life, the potential for enamel damage depends on factors such as the frequency of consumption, duration of exposure and sugar content.

“Our results suggest that replacing sugar-sweetened sodas with unsweetened sparkling water may help lower the risk of enamel erosion,” said Zulfiqar. “The results also highlight an opportunity for the beverage industry to explore reformulation strategies that could potentially reduce the erosive potential of acidic beverages.”

Next, the researchers plan to test how sparkling water influences oral health over the long term, which will help reveal whether it changes other aspects of the mouth environment that are important to good oral health.

Zulfiqar will present this research at 9:30 – 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday, July 26, during the Clinical Nutrition II Poster Session in the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center (abstract; presentation details).

This release may include updated numbers or data that differ from those in the submitted abstract.

Please note that abstracts presented at NUTRITION 2026 were evaluated and selected by a committee of experts but have not generally undergone the same peer review process required for publication in a scientific journal. As such, the findings presented should be considered preliminary until a peer-reviewed publication is available.

 

About NUTRITION 2026

NUTRITION 2026 is the flagship meeting of the American Society for Nutrition and the premier educational event for nutritional professionals around the globe. NUTRITION brings together lab scientists, practicing clinicians, population health researchers and community intervention investigators to identify solutions to today’s greatest nutrition challenges. The meeting also attracts rising leaders in the field, including undergraduate, graduate and medical students. NUTRITION 2026 will be held July 25–28 in National Harbor, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C. https://nutrition.org/meeting/ #Nutrition2026

About the American Society for Nutrition (ASN)

ASN is the preeminent professional organization for nutrition research scientists and clinicians around the world. Founded in 1928, the society brings together the top nutrition researchers, medical practitioners, policy makers and industry leaders to advance knowledge and application of nutrition. ASN publishes four peer-reviewed journals and provides education and professional development opportunities to advance nutrition research, practice, and education. Since 2018, the American Society for Nutrition has presented NUTRITION, the leading global annual meeting for nutrition professionals. http://www.nutrition.org

Find more news briefs from NUTRITION 2026 at: https://www.eurekalert.org/newsroom/nutrition2026.

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Tailored food policies could cut emissions and improve health, global study finds



University of Oxford






Improving diets is one of the world's biggest public health and environmental challenges. More than 2.5 billion adults are now overweight or obese, 88% of countries with available data face a serious burden of two or more forms of malnutrition, and food systems account for between a quarter and a third of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Published in Nature Food, the study introduces MATILDA (Micro-Macro Assessment Tool to Identify Low-impact Dietary Actions), a global database that combines individual dietary surveys with country-level food supply chains and population data. Covering 165 countries, it provides a globally harmonised picture of how the nutritional quality and environmental impacts of diets vary within populations, offering policymakers a stronger evidence base than national averages alone.

Looking beyond national averages revealed how widely diets differ within countries. The highest-impact diets produced almost double the greenhouse gas emissions of the lowest-impact diets. 

Across the 165 countries studied, every 5% improvement in diet quality, measured using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), was associated with a 7.7% reduction in diet-related greenhouse gas emissions, alongside lower water and land use. Diets containing a higher proportion of plant-based foods were also consistently associated with lower environmental impacts. 

People's dietary patterns are shaped by far more than personal choice. Where they live, whether that is a town or the countryside, how long they spent in education, what they can afford and the wider social and environmental context all play a part. Recognising those differences creates opportunities to develop food policies that better reflect the realities in which people make food choices.

Dr Oliver Taherzadeh, lead author from the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, said:

“MATILDA connects what’s on our plate to global environmental consequences. We achieve this by linking group-level dietary patterns to a macroeconomic model which captures their impact within and beyond national borders. To date, macroeconomic food system models have overlooked national-level differences in food consumption patterns and integration of food supply chain data into country case studies has been piecemeal. We try to bridge this gap and in doing so manage to pin-point the high-impact and vulnerable consumer groups otherwise hidden by dietary food modelling and policy. This enables sustainable dietary policy to be more targeted, fair and effective.”

Dr Hongyi Cai, developer of MATILDA from the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, said:

“There is no one-size-fits all when it comes to sustainable and healthy diets. When we benchmark the population against the actual diets they follow, food system impacts become more accountable, health inequalities become more explicit, and differentiated needs become more clear.” 

Professor Paul Behrens, co-author at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, said:

"People don't make food choices in isolation. What we eat is shaped by where we live, what we can afford and what is available to us. We've entered an era where food policy can become much more evidence-based. Instead of treating entire populations as though they eat the same foods, we can now identify where interventions are likely to have the greatest benefit while making sure vulnerable groups aren't left behind."

The paper discusses a range of possible policy responses, including public information campaigns, supermarket incentives and other measures that make healthier, lower-impact choices easier. Broader approaches, such as taxation and regulation, also have an important role. The authors conclude that uniform interventions are unlikely to be sufficient, because dietary patterns and nutritional needs differ within populations.

-ENDS-

Notes to Editors

This study introduces MATILDA, the first global framework to combine individual dietary surveys, food supply chains and population data, enabling comparisons of dietary environmental impacts and diet quality across 165 countries and 72 socio-demographic population groups.

Journal: Nature Food 

Title: Dietary environmental impacts and quality differ by socio-demographic characteristics

Publication date: 22 July 2026 

Key findings:

  • First global framework combining dietary intake, food supply chain and population data. 
  • 165 countries. 
  • 72 socio-demographic population groups.
  • The highest-impact socio-demographic group generated almost double the emissions of the lowest-impact group. 
  • The study's highest-impact group is young, highly educated urban men, as a median across all 165 countries rather than a finding specific to high-income nations. The comparison is between group medians; plant-sourced foods account for 62% of that group's diet against 70% for the lowest-impact group.
  • Every 5% improvement in diet quality associated with 7.7% lower diet-related GHG emissions, 4.4% lower water use and 7.2% lower land use. 
  • Higher proportions of plant-based foods associated with lower environmental impacts. 
  • Main policy message: uniform interventions are unlikely to be sufficient because dietary patterns differ across populations.

 

 

Authors and affiliations

  • Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands
    • Oliver Taherzadeh, 
    • Arthur Schoorlemmer, 
    • Paul Behrens
    • Hongyi Cai
  • Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
    • Paul Behrens
  • Wellbeing Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
    • Paul Behrens
  • Institute for Ecological Economics, University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria
    • Martin Bruckner

 

 

Regional drought prediction from Sentinel-2 time series using Random Forest, DNN, and 1D-CNN: a case study in Marchfeld, Austria





Big Earth Data
Total precipitation sums (in mm) from May 1st to October 31st across multiple years for the Marchfeld region, based on SPARTACUS v2.1 daily precipitation data 

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Total precipitation sums (in mm) from May 1st to October 31st across multiple years for the Marchfeld region, based on SPARTACUS v2.1 daily precipitation data

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Credit: Big Earth Data





A new study published in Big Earth Data proposes an operational framework that integrates multiple machine learning and deep learning models with high-resolution Sentinel-2 data to estimate agricultural drought conditions in irrigated and non-irrigated maize fields in Eastern Austria. Results from 2018–2023 show that deep learning models, particularly the Deep Neural Network (DNN), achieved the best performance, while non-irrigated fields exhibited higher prediction accuracy due to clearer drought signals, demonstrating the value of Sentinel-2–based deep learning for operational drought monitoring.

Citation

Ghorbanzadeh, O., un Nisa, Z., Gholamnia, K., Ogutu, B., Dobrowolska, E., Volden, E., … Dash, J. (2026). Regional drought prediction from Sentinel-2 time series using Random Forest, DNN, and 1D-CNN: a case study in Marchfeld, Austria. Big Earth Data, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2026.2649428

Abstract

In recent years, the integration of machine learning (ML) with earth observation data has improved early warning systems and drought management strategies through advanced drought monitoring and prediction. This study proposes an operational framework that synergistically combines multiple ML models with high-resolution Sentinel-2 data to estimate agricultural drought conditions, while focusing on maize fields in Eastern Austria. The study area includes both irrigated and non-irrigated fields, allowing for comparative performance analysis under different water regimes. A comprehensive network of reference points was established using over 20 satellite-derived indices integrated with ground data including field capacity, precipitation, and soil composition. The integrity of the reference points was further tested with temporal analysis and expert validation. The study employed Random Forest (RF), and two deep learning models, Deep Neural Network (DNN) and One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN), to generate pixel-level drought maps from pre-processed time-series sentinel-derived variables. The prediction accuracy is evaluated over multiple years (2018–2023). The results reveal distinct differences in model performance, with non-irrigated fields demonstrating higher prediction accuracy (on average 79%) and lower error metrics (on average 0.15), likely due to the clearer drought signals they present. In contrast, irrigated fields present more significant drought patterns, which increase the complexity of prediction, reflected in lower prediction accuracy (on average 77.4%) and error metrics (on average 0.16). Among all models, DNN demonstrated the best overall performance. The results highlight the advantage of deep learning with Sentinel-2 in operational drought monitoring for improved agricultural drought management.

#geoscience #remote sensing #earth observation #GIS #data analysis #Big Data #visualization #landuse

Big Earth Data is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal which aims to provide an efficient and high-quality platform for promoting the sharing, processing and analyses of Earth-related big data, thereby revolutionizing the cognition of the Earth’s systems. The journal publishes a wide range of content, including Research Articles, Review Articles, Data Notes, Technical Notes, and Perspectives. It is now included in ESCI (IF=3.8, Q1), Scopus (CiteScore=9.0, Q1), Ei Compendex, GEOBASE, and Inspec. Starting from 2023, Big Earth Data has announced a new award series for authors: Best and Outstanding Paper Awards.

The lost golden age of language diversity



New modelling suggests that tens of thousands of languages were spoken between 1,000 and 3,000 years ago - and that their decline began well before European colonial expansion




Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology

Contemporary languages and endangerment status 

image: 

Contemporary languages and endangerment status. Made with a Natural Earth base map using data from Glottolog 5.3 and information adapted from GlottoScope.

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Credit: © Claire Bowern





To the Point

  • Fewer languages before agriculture: The researchers estimate that between approximately 4,500 and 6,200 languages were spoken at the beginning of the Holocene, around 12,000 years ago - probably fewer than the roughly 7,500 languages spoken and signed today.

  • A linguistic “golden age”: As the global human population grew, language diversity also increased. The models suggest that tens of thousands of languages may have existed between 1,000 and 3,000 years ago.

  • A deep history of language loss: The decline in linguistic diversity appears to have begun with the expansion of large states and empires, long before modern European colonialism.

  • Today’s languages are survivors: The languages spoken today represent a small and historically biased sample of past linguistic diversity, with important implications for how researchers explain global patterns in language and culture.

Today, people speak or sign around 7,500 languages. Yet this figure provides only a snapshot of a constantly changing history. How many languages existed before written records? Did agriculture reduce linguistic diversity by allowing expanding farming populations to replace smaller hunter-gatherer groups? Or did population growth initially create more opportunities for new languages to emerge?

An international research team involving researchers from Spain, the USA and Germany have reconstructed plausible trajectories of global language diversity across the last 12,000 years. Their study, published in Science, suggests that language diversity increased for most of the Holocene, reached a remarkable peak between approximately 1,000 and 3,000 years ago, and then declined rapidly thereafter.

Reconstructing a history without written records

“This paper presents an innovative approach to understanding the dynamics of human cultural diversity in the past, addressing one of the central yet least accessible questions in the human sciences. Progress has been limited not by a lack of theoretical interest but by the exceptional difficulty of observing the relevant dynamics empirically”, says Marcus Hamilton of the University of Texas at San Antonio.

Direct evidence for the number of languages is almost entirely absent before the appearance of writing around 6,000 years ago, and remains fragmentary until quite recently. The researchers therefore combined ethnographic information, estimates of prehistoric population size, and statistical and social-computational modelling.

They began with ethnographic data from 171 hunter-gatherer and fisher societies whose traditional subsistence and mobility had not been profoundly transformed by contact with food-producing populations. These data allowed the researchers to estimate the likely distribution of ethnolinguistic group sizes near the beginning of the Holocene.

The team then combined these estimates with reconstructions suggesting that the global human population 12,000 years ago was between approximately 4.4 and seven million. Assuming that ethnolinguistic groups at that time generally corresponded to distinct languages, the models produced an early-Holocene estimate centred on roughly 4,500 to 6,200 languages, although broader plausible estimates ranged from around 3,300 to 7,800.

“One of the first surprises was that the world immediately before agriculture was probably not exceptionally rich in languages. There were most likely fewer languages than there are today. Linguistic diversity then grew alongside the human population for thousands of years”, says Russell Gray, Director of the Department of Linguistic and Cultural Evolution at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig.

Tens of thousands of languages

Agriculture, technological innovation and more stable food production allowed the global population to expand dramatically. At the same time, however, societies became larger, meaning that progressively more people could share the same language.

To capture these opposing processes, the researchers modelled thousands of possible trajectories connecting estimates at the beginning of the Holocene with the present. The models allowed the number of people per language to increase over time, while incorporating independent reconstructions of global population growth.

Although the precise trajectory remains uncertain, the models consistently produced a striking general pattern. Language diversity increased over most of the Holocene and typically peaked between 1,000 and 3,000 years ago. Many trajectories imply an approximately tenfold increase from early-Holocene levels, placing the peak number of languages in the tens of thousands.

“The most unexpected result is how recent the peak appears to have been. The period of greatest linguistic diversity may have occurred not in the remote Palaeolithic, but during the era of expanding states and early empires”, says Claire Bowern of Yale University.

The authors describe this period as a linguistic “golden age”. It has largely escaped previous discussion because most surviving historical records were produced by the expanding societies whose languages eventually became dominant.

Language loss before modern colonialism

The linguistic golden age was followed by a rapid decline, particularly during the last two millennia. The results therefore challenge the view that the present language-endangerment crisis began only with European colonial expansion around 500 years ago.

European colonialism unquestionably intensified language replacement on an enormous scale. The new models suggest, however, that the process had deeper roots in the expansion of earlier multinational states and empires. Such expansions brought previously separated populations into sustained contact and spread dominant languages together with political institutions, technologies, cultural practices and pathogens.

The model does not identify which particular empires, regions or historical events caused the global decline. Rather, it shows that a very large reduction in linguistic diversity must have taken place before the present.

Today’s languages passed through a bottleneck

This loss means that the languages spoken today are not a representative sample of those that once existed. Languages associated with expanding populations were disproportionately likely to survive, while the languages of absorbed, displaced or declining populations disappeared.

This historical bottleneck may also have altered the global frequency of grammatical structures, speech sounds and other linguistic features. Researchers often explain common features by suggesting that they are especially easy to learn, efficient to communicate or well suited to human cognition. The new study suggests that demographic expansion and extinction must also be considered.

“The languages we see today are the survivors of a massive and highly selective historical bottleneck. A linguistic feature may be common not because it is inherently superior, but because it happened to be carried by populations that expanded. Extinction may have shaped linguistic diversity much more profoundly than we previously appreciated”, says Damian Blasi, lead author of the study and researcher at the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) and Harvard University.

Because languages are often transmitted together with religious practices, kinship systems, social institutions and other forms of cultural knowledge, the authors argue that this bottleneck extended beyond language. Many cultural traditions may also have vanished without leaving direct historical evidence.

A model, not a prehistoric census

The researchers emphasise that the study provides a coarse global reconstruction rather than a direct count of prehistoric languages. Its estimates depend on assumptions about early ethnolinguistic group sizes and the long-term relationship between population and language numbers. Regional histories undoubtedly differed, and short-term collapses caused by warfare, disease and environmental disruption cannot be individually reconstructed by the model.

Nevertheless, the central pattern persisted across a wide range of modelling conditions and alternative assumptions. The results suggest that the history of language diversity was not a simple, continuous decline from a highly diverse Palaeolithic world. Instead, linguistic diversity rose with human population growth, reached an extraordinary but short-lived peak, and then underwent a severe global contraction.