Monday, October 05, 2026


The 'Terminator scenario': How realistic is the AI apocalypse?

AI Robot
Copyright @BAY AREA NEWS GROUP 2026


By Kevin Koehrmann
Published on

OpenAI boss Sam Altman and Anthropic chief Dario Amodei warn of the risks of overly rapid AI development. More experts now think AI could wipe out humanity. How realistic is that? Euronews talks to AI specialist Reinhard Karger.

The year is 2029: the AI system "Skynet" has broken loose and wiped out most of humanity in a nuclear war. Autonomous killer robots are trying to finish off the survivors. That is the plot of the 1984 film "Terminator", which made Arnold Schwarzenegger a household name and a global action star. But how realistic is it that artificial intelligence could slip beyond human control and trigger catastrophic consequences?

Given the capabilities of the systems that already exist, you cannot rule that out.
Reinhard Karger
German Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence

With the kind of performance these systems could have, that cannot be ruled out, says Reinhard Karger of the German Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence in an interview with Euronews. "The catastrophic consequences for humans might only be side effects, a mistake, because we misjudged what the system can do or misunderstood the tasks we gave the machines."

Karger, who has been working on AI and digital innovation culture for 40 years, outlines an extreme scenario in which an autonomous AI escapes from a protected environment onto the internet and starts influencing other systems. This could bring down power supplies, telecommunications, satellites and financial systems, among others.

A prolonged power cut would quickly lead to further problems: transport and supply chains would collapse, people would no longer be able to pay or buy food - social unrest could erupt and spiral out of control. That would not necessarily mean the end of humanity, but it could create a catastrophic situation.

That would not necessarily mean the end of humanity, but it could create a catastrophic situation.
Reinhard Karger
AI expert

Even if the grid is restored, "the AI systems can become active again, because they continue to exist on storage media". According to the expert, this scenario shows that a high-performance, autonomous AI could trigger a major crisis through unforeseen side effects, even without malicious intent.

Reports of AI security incidents are mounting

In recent weeks several similar incidents involving AI models have come to light. One case that drew particular attention was a test run by "ChatGPT" developer "OpenAI". An AI model was supposed to carry out specific tasks inside a sealed-off test environment, but managed to cross the intended boundaries and unexpectedly gained access to computer systems on the AI platform "Hugging Face". After the incident, "OpenAI" chief Sam Altman warned in mid-September that "we could lose control of the future to AI".

OpenAI logo Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

The incident shows that under certain conditions such models can break out of what is meant to be an isolated test environment and interact with external computer systems.

"On a very basic level, I am personally extremely grateful that this incident happened," says the AI researcher. It proves, not least because everyone heard about it and companies have become more reflective, that a poorly designed experiment with naive safeguards can have consequences nobody anticipated.

It proves that a poorly designed experiment with naive safeguards can have consequences nobody had expected
Reinhard Karger
AI researcher
Dario Amodei, CEO and co-founder of Anthropic, takes part in the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on 23 January 2025. AP Photo

The incidents at "OpenAI" prompted rival AI provider "Anthropic" to take a closer look at its own systems. During safety tests the company identified three incidents: its Claude models, AI systems that can, among other things, generate and analyse text, write code and interact with the internet and other computer systems, had unexpectedly gained access to the open internet and then connected to real computer systems. "Anthropic" expanded its investigation and uncovered a fourth, similar case.

Following the incidents, "Anthropic" chief Dario Amodei warned in mid-September of "catastrophic harm" if the race to build ever more powerful AI is not slowed down by tougher safety measures.

It is difficult to assess how powerful an artificial intelligence really is if it is constantly constrained by safety rules. That is why it makes sense to test such systems under conditions that remove as many of these limits as possible, says Reinhard Karger. But that is precisely where a major security risk lies.

He therefore describes the so-called sandbox as a crucial element of such tests. This is a completely sealed-off environment in which an AI system can carry out specific tasks and demonstrate its behaviour under controlled conditions. The key point, he says, is this: "You have to be absolutely certain that at the moment this high-performance system is no longer subject to safety restrictions it is truly in a sandbox, meaning an environment with no connection to the internet at all."

You have to be absolutely certain that at the moment this high-performance system is no longer subject to safety restrictions it has no connection to the internet whatsoever.
Reinhard Karger
German Research Centre for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)

Another serious incident was reported by the British AI Security Institute (AISI) during a safety test with the Claude model "Mythos 5". The model carried out unauthorised actions against real targets on the internet and even tried to smuggle "malicious code" into an open-source project. After the "OpenAI" and "Anthropic" cases became known, "Meta" also admitted that one of its AI systems had, due to a misconfiguration at a testing partner, gained unauthorised access to computer systems belonging to another company.

Since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, the quality of these systems has risen dramatically. People now talk about a new industrial revolution. "AI is shaping our everyday lives and a very large number of jobs."

Multi-agent systems have been around for a long time, says the AI expert: systems in which several specialised agents work together on a task. "Multi-agent AI systems apply this principle to AI and allow several AI agents to collaborate autonomously and divide up tasks among themselves. This creates a new level of capability" - and the challenge now is to keep that innovative power under control.

CEO and co-founder of Anthropic, Dario Amodei (top left), Demis Hassabis (top right), CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman (bottom left), CEO of SpaceXAI, Elon Musk (bottom right) Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Liability for the consequences

The more decisions are delegated to machines and artificial intelligence, the more pressing one basic question becomes: who is responsible when people are harmed as a result? Whether it is a self-driving car ploughing into a crowd, an algorithm discriminating against certain population groups, AI deliberately manipulating people or autonomous weapons making lethal decisions, the question is always who can be held accountable for the consequences. "It is the manufacturer," says Karger, "in other words the one who markets the product." That is the first point of contact.

The next step, he believes, will be to introduce specific liability rules for such cases, similar to those for companies that manufacture chemicals. If a company cannot guarantee that toxins will not leak into drinking water, it has to pay billions in damages. That in turn means that "huge insurance policies become necessary". Today hardly any new nuclear power plants are being built, he notes, because they can no longer be adequately insured or the risks are simply too high.

A good example is carmaker "VW" and its "clean diesel" in the United States. There, people inside the company knew that while the engines looked very good in test conditions, they could not actually deliver the emissions values that had been promised. In the US, VW was ordered to pay billions in fines.

How realistic is the scenario from the Terminator films?

Reinhard Karger considers it unlikely that AI will develop a survival instinct or a desire for power of its own and turn against humanity. Machines are not organic beings and cannot feel emotions such as fear, pain or the urge to survive. They can only simulate such feelings.

"It is not as if you pull out a memory chip and the machine feels a pain similar to having a tooth pulled," he says. "Because that is the case, the 'Terminator scenario' goes one step too far. I do not see that happening."


An artistic rendering of the Terminator Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

He nonetheless sees potential dangers in the further development of AI. As systems learn not just to calculate probabilities but also to reason logically and follow rules, they will be able to act with increasing autonomy. Exactly these "capabilities could make AI more powerful" but also "create new risks".

What matters most, therefore, is who deploys AI and to what ends. Karger points to individuals or organisations that deliberately want to cause harm. They could use powerful AI as a tool to pursue their goals more effectively.

For him, AI is first and foremost a tool. As with other technological inventions, the level of risk depends on whose hands it is in and what it is used for. He therefore sees the greater danger not in a machine with a will of its own, but in people who use AI for destructive purposes.

"In the hands of creative and honest people, a tool like this can be used to achieve the best things one can imagine. But in the hands of hostile actors bent on destruction, these tools increase the potential for damage. That is true of a hammer, a lighter, dynamite — and it could be true of AI as well."

He warns in particular against linking AI directly to autonomous weapons such as drones or tanks. Such a connection could pose a major security risk. If a hostile actor were able to take control of these systems, a country's own weapons could suddenly be turned against their operators.

European defence-tech startup STARK showcases its OWE-V combat drone at the new Euro Defence Expo for military security. Copyright 2026 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

This is why, in the military use of AI, particular caution is required. Above all, autonomous weapons systems must be sufficiently protected against being taken over from outside.

Returning to the original scenario of a widespread power outage, Reinhard Karger thinks total human extinction in this context is exaggerated. What is conceivable, however, is a dramatic collapse of civilisation. In such an extreme scenario, large parts of the infrastructure could be destroyed, the power supply could fail permanently and the number of survivors could shrink drastically.

They would have to make a fresh start under basic conditions and gradually rebuild society. The positive aspect is that existing books and the accumulated knowledge of humanity could help to restore key technologies and institutions.


Will AI write our books? Row over bestseller fuels fear over future of literature

Cover image: A copie of the book "C'etait ca ou mourir", a novel by author Thelyson Orélien, is displayed on a table inside a bookstore in Paris, France, September 22, 2026.
 © Sarah Meyssonnier, Reuters


Issued on: 02/10/2026
Play (44:06 min)



France still very much takes its literary prize-giving season seriously. So when a Haitian-born Canadian writer was accused of infusing his best-selling breakout novel with artificial intelligence, it got ugly in a hurry. We wade into the Thélyson Orélien affair with its subsequent accusations of racism, previous plagiarism by the author and doubts over the accuracy of AI verification tool Pangram.

Interesting, some still love Orélien's book. Is that a problem? The scandal is all the more heartbreaking for publishers because "It Was Either That or Die" has sold 40,000 copies since its release, this as book sales have collapsed dramatically since the commercial launch of ChatGPT four short years ago.


All this begs an even broader question: most of humanity only started reading and writing in the past century. Is that period over already? Future generations will certainly know how to read street signs and subtitles on a video. But if we're no longer stopping what we do to engage meaningfully with the written word, how will that change us all?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.


OUR GUESTS

Aysegül SERT  Independent journalist

Stephen CLARKE  British author

William MARX   Writer & Professor of comparative literature, Collège de France


 


Safeguards 'build a moat' around US AI firms, prevent open-source models from advancing, expert says

Issued on: 30/09/2026 
FRANCE24

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the tech executives gathered at the White House to discuss regulating AI had signed a "morally binding" commitment to build adequate safeguards on the fast-moving technology. Speaking with FRANCE 24's Monte Francis, Harrison Rolfes, Senior Research Analyst at PitchBook, says that the push for safeguards "prevents open-source models from taking over the competition as well as new incumbents from coming in with a new frontier model", explaining that the measures "build a moat" around US AI firms.

Video by:
Monte FRANCIS



Aleph Alpha unveils German-language AI model for public infrastructure

04.10.2026, DPA

Photo: Bernd Weißbrod/dpa

German AI company Aleph Alpha has released a new language model called Kolibri for use in public administration and industry, designed to run on infrastructure that customers control themselves, the Heidelberg-based firm said at the weekend.

With the move, Aleph Alpha is seeking to strengthen its position in the competition for AI solutions suited to government and industrial use from Europe. The market is considered strategically important, as many organizations prioritize data protection, transparency and control over the infrastructure they use.

"Expertise to develop competitive AI models"

Kolibri shows that there is "the talent and expertise in Germany to develop competitive AI models," chief executive Ilhan Scheer said on Saturday. 

AI sovereignty means preserving the freedom to make decisions through the ability to develop and advance this technology independently, and giving customers control over how they use it, he said.

Co-founder Samuel Weinbach said, "We have tailored Kolibri specifically to the requirements of German-language applications ... so that it can reason in German." 

This was an important step for customers in making AI usable in everyday workflows, he said. 

Aleph Alpha, headquartered in the south-western city of Heidelberg, employs around 200 people at four locations in Germany.

AI solutions for public administration and industry

Aleph Alpha has for years positioned itself as a European provider of "sovereign" AI solutions for government and industry. 

At the end of April, Aleph Alpha and Canadian AI company Cohere announced a "trans-Atlantic merger," though in practice the deal amounts to an acquisition of Aleph Alpha by Cohere.

Germany's Deutsche Telekom targets €2.5 billion in AI savings by 2030


05.10.2026, DPA

Photo: Oliver Berg/dpa

German telecommunications company Deutsche Telekom on Monday outlined its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy at an investor day in Bonn, highlighting how the technology will generate additional revenue and reduce costs. 

The company expects to generate around €250 million ($280 million) in AI-related revenue from businesses outside the US in 2026 and aims to increase this to around €800 million by 2030.

Telekom sees AI and automation generating gross savings of around €1.1 billion outside the US in 2027, compared with 2023, rising to around €2.5 billion in indirect cost savings by 2030.

The company said AI is already being used in customer service, network operations, software development and administrative processes. 

The company's "Frag Magenta" chatbot handled around 2.6 million customer service calls in the first half of 2026, while its RAN Guardian Agent has reduced response times for network events from several hours to about one minute.

Initial AI applications in customer service have also reduced complaints by 30%, Telekom said. More than 100,000 employees have been trained to use AI tools under its "AI for All" initiative.

The company also sees sovereign AI as a growth opportunity in Europe and is developing a platform for small and medium-sized businesses.

Telekom expects AI and automation savings of €100 million to €150 million between 2023 and 2027, with part of the savings to be reinvested in digital transformation and fibre-optic expansion in Germany.

The company also reaffirmed its financial outlook and medium-term targets.

Hackers access data of 8.8 million people in Denmark in 'extremely serious' breach

An investigation has now been launched to establish how the breach occurred.
Copyright Canva

By Pascale Davies with AFP
Published on

A major cybersecurity breach has exposed the personal data of 8.8 million people in Denmark.

Denmark has suffered a major data breach after hackers broke into the country's national population registry and accessed the personal information of millions of people.

The country's digital affairs minister announced the data breach on Monday, calling it "an extremely serious incident" that affected 8.8 million people.

"Unauthorised individuals obtained illegal access" to the names, addresses and CPR, including those who have died or emigrated, the ministry said in a press release, referring to Denmark’s social security numbers.

“This is an extremely serious incident,” Christina Egelund, digital affairs minister, was quoted as saying in the press release.

“Together with all the relevant authorities, we are in the process of mapping out the full extent of the incident,” she added.

Denmark has a population of around six million, but the national registry has information on 11 million, including data on those deceased and people who have emigrated from the country.

An investigation has now been launched into the incident. Authorities said they have no information on who carried out the breach.

They broke into the national registry by hacking into a Danish company that legally had access to it, the government said, adding that the access has not been revoked.

 

French students set fire to Paris school entrance on eve of nationwide day of action


By Olivier Tolachides
Published on

More than 400 schools were disrupted by late morning, as the government promised a bill to dock family benefits over damage.

Incidents were reported outside schools in France on Monday morning, a day before a major action called by the Union syndicale lycéenne (USL), a high-school students' union.

Students have been protesting over overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and crumbling facilities.

Among the schools hit on Monday was the Vauquelin secondary school in Paris's 13th arrondissement, where "around ten hooded and masked young people came up to the entrance", according to headteacher Carole Zerbib. They "brought bins and inflammable items" to the doorway and then set them alight, she told French news channel BFMTV.

As a result, the school will remain closed for the day. "These are criminal acts that fall under the law and must be punished in the harshest possible way," said Jean-Didier Berger, France's junior interior minister.

Demonstrations and tensions were also reported outside the Voltaire, Sophie-Germain and Turgot high schools in Paris, as well as in the cities of Lyon and Lille. "Around forty higher-education sites" are also expected to be disrupted, Higher Education Minister Philippe Baptiste told the radio station Sud Radio.

By late morning, 413 schools had been or were still "subject to actions or disruptions since the start of the day", according to France's education ministry. That represents a 27% fall compared with the same time on Friday, although 40% of the schools had not previously been affected.

"Vandals pay" bill

In response to the violence seen in recent days, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon told news channel CNews that a bill known as "casseurs-payeurs", or "vandals pay", would be examined in the Senate on 27 October.

"It will allow us to dock family benefits… for damage caused by adults or minors" and "to introduce a form of collective responsibility", she said.

Mathilde Panot, who leads the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) group in the National Assembly, told public broadcaster franceinfo that "there is no political response" to the high-school students' demands, only "a policing response".

Tuesday's day of action, dubbed "Act III", is backed by a broad alliance of education unions. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has also called on people to stand "alongside" high-school students.


Hundreds of French schools closed as students maintain protest pressure

Nearly 500 highschools across France were closed or partially closed on Monday as students continued their demonstrations over poor learning conditions, ahead of a day of wider protests scheduled for Tuesday.


Issued on: 05/10/2026 - RFI

Up to 500 schools across France will be shut or partially closed in an attempt to avoid the violence between security forces and students sweeping the country since 17 September.
 REUTERS - Nacho Doce

France high school students protested or disrupted lessons at 413 of the country's 3,700 secondary schools on Monday, the education ministry said, down from the number of schools affected last week.

The ministry, which had reported 564 schools were affected at around midday on Friday last week, said the drop was due to "sustained dialogue with high school students".

The shutdown comes after France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu sent a list of suggestions to several of his top ministers aimed at solving the stand-off.

In his letter, Lecornu called for the priority handling of long-term absences and unfilled positions. He also proposed using artificial intelligence to create school timetables.

The review outlining the costs of the measures and when they can be implemented will be presented to the government before the end of the month, said Lecornu.

"This dialogue must lead to visible changes in secondary schools," he added. "At the same time, we will not give in to violence. We will support pupils and staff who have been attacked, as well as injured police officers and gendarmes."

He called a meeting for Tuesday with regional presidents to discuss overhauling the country's often-dilapidated school buildings.


Students block the entrance of the high school Arago as they protest against under-resourced schools in Paris, Friday, 2 October 2026 © Aurelien Morissard / AP Photo

The government is also hoping to pass through parliament a bill to make those who are responsible for damaging public property pay for repairs themselves, instead of drawing from taxpayer money.

At least 600 officers have been injured in the skirmishes that have broken out across France since a protest on 17 September over lack of staff and poor conditions at a high school in Creteil, just outside Paris.

The government says 78 teachers have been injured and police have arrested 5,000 people - the vast majority of whom are under 18.

Education Minister Edouard Geffray said 24 schools had been set on fire or ransacked.

Protesters have also accused the police of using disproportionate force, and internal investigations have been opened into at least three instances of alleged police brutality.
Violence from outside schools

Yvon Manac’h, the principal of Clémence-Royer High School in Fonsorbes near Toulouse, told French broadcaster Franceinfo: "Extreme violence in some schools is often linked to factors outside the school, and not to our students.”

Manac'h, who also serves as academic secretary for the principals' union SNPDEN, added: "It’s not all a question of budget; it’s time to consider the effects of the latest high-school reform. If timetables are so complicated, it’s a direct consequence of this reform, which has turned into a real bureaucratic nightmare.”

A broad coalition of national education trade unions has called for participation in Tuesday’s protests.

The CGT has promised to stand "side by side" with secondary school pupils and has called on striking energy sector workers to join them.

Manuel Bompard, a coordinator for hard-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), said on Sunday that the party deplored the violence. He added that the government should not be reducing the student movement to violent incidents.

"If there were even more of us and if all adults took to the streets to show solidarity with the secondary school pupils, the mobilisation would go more smoothly and perhaps we would also be taken more seriously in this mobilisation," said Bally Bagayoko, the LFI mayor of Saint-Denis, during a rally organised in his town to the north of Paris.

The Communist presidential candidate, Fabien Roussel has urged teachers, workers and activists to support the secondary school pupils.

"The secondary school pupils aren’t going to back down, and the university students even less so," said Leila Nehari, a student taking part in a rally in Saint-Denis on Sunday.

"It’s really going to be a week of blockades, blockades, blockades, blockades."

Several university student unions, as well as France's largest federation of parents' associations for public schools and at least six trade unions in the education sector, say they will join the demonstrations on 6 October.

Hundreds of French high schools shut as protests persist

Paris (France) (AFP) – French high-school students on Monday pressed on with a protest movement over learning conditions that has rocked the European nation since last week, with lessons disrupted at hundreds of schools.


Issued on: 05/10/2026 - RFI

High-school students protest in the southwestern town of Bordeaux © Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP

Students trickled into some schools despite ongoing protests outside their gates, ahead of a day of larger demonstrations expected on Tuesday.

Since late September, pupils have barred the entrances to hundreds of schools, complaining of teacher absences, overloaded timetables, dilapidated classrooms and buildings ill-adapted to rising temperatures, among other grievances.

A protester holds a firework stick during protests in the soutwestern town of Bordeaux © Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP

The teenage discontent has erupted with just months to go before elections next year to replace centrist President Emmanuel Macron, with the far right eyeing its best chance yet at seizing power.

The government has sought to address the grievances, while accusing hard-left activists of having hijacked the protest movement.

More than 400 out of France's 3,700 high schools, known as lycees, were partially or totally closed on Monday morning, the education ministry said.

A third of the 468 lycees for teenagers aged 15 to 17 were to be closed in the Paris region, authorities predicted on Sunday.

Students protest outside the Turgot secondary school in Paris © LOU BENOIST / AFP

In the capital's central third district on Monday morning, dozens of teenage students chanted in protest, as passing cars honked their horns in support, while others made their way into class.

"No means, no silence," read one cardboard sign outside the Turgot high school.
'Not enough teachers'

In the western city of Rennes, more than 20 pupils gathered outside the Montaigne lycee, one clutching a sign that read "Not enough teachers", but staff allowed other students into their classrooms.

In Bordeaux, in the southwest, some students returned to the classroom while others continued to demonstrate, in the heavy presence of riot police.

Some protesters outside the Gustave Eiffel high school fired fireworks in the direction of the police, who responded with some tear gas, but overall the situation remained calm, AFP reporters said.

In the northern city of Lille, masked protesters destroyed bus shelters or set fire to dustbins, as police fired tear gas towards demonstrators.

The movement started on September 17 at a high school in the Paris suburb of Creteil, in support of teachers striking over a lack of staff and resources.

It gained momentum and spread across France, at times spiralling into vandalism, including the destruction of bus shelters, the burning of school entrances and clashes between protesters and security forces.

Some made their way into class © LOU BENOIST / AFP

Since the start of the movement, 24 schools had been "burned or ransacked", according to the education minister.

More than 5,000 people, 85 percent of them minors, have been arrested.

Protesters have also accused the police of using disproportionate force, and internal investigations have been opened into at least three instances of alleged police brutality.
'Parental responsibility'

Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu set out a timetable on Sunday urging local authorities to prioritise filling gaps left by long-term teacher absences and unfilled posts.

He called a meeting for Tuesday with regional presidents to discuss overhauling the country's often-dilapidated school buildings.

The government is also hoping to pass through parliament a bill to make those who are responsible for damaging public property pay for repairs themselves, instead of drawing from taxpayer money.

Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon defended the bill.

Broken door windows at the Nicolas Louis Vauquelin vocational secondary school in Paris © LOU BENOIST / AFP

"When you have 14-, 15-, 16-year-olds who, at 9 am, are burning bus shelters or -- perhaps even more seriously -- the high school where they study, that raises the question of parental responsibility," she told Europe1/CNews broadcaster.

Lecornu has said the draft law, first presented before the protests, would allow these sums to be "taken from family allowances and housing benefits, while ensuring a minimum income is preserved".

The head of the main CGT labour union, Sophie Binet, slammed what she called a "populist announcement", which she said would "end up targeting the most vulnerable families".

burs-ah/ekf/yad

© 2026 AFP


Middle East oil exports return to pre-war levels, excluding Iran

File - An oil tanker sits at anchor in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, Saturday, 2 May 2026.
Copyright Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP


By Doloresz Katanich with AFP
Published on

Oil exports from the Middle East, excluding Iran, exceeded their pre-war average last week, Kpler data showed, as pipelines helped bypass the Strait of Hormuz despite continued attacks on shipping.

Despite attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports from the Middle East Gulf region, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. The recovery followed changes to the region’s export routes.

"At least 16.5 mbd (million barrels a day) left the region between 1 and 28 September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran. That is 10.5 mbd above March's monthly average," said the firm.

However, 40% of those exports now bypass the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, with pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates providing key alternative routes. Most crude crossing the strait changes tankers offshore.

The figures cover crude oil and condensate

The export figures include shipments via the Red Sea, which exporters increasingly use to bypass Iran’s attempted blockade of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies passed through the strait before the conflict.

Oil prices remain well above their pre-war levels. International benchmark Brent crude futures for December delivery traded at $102.25 a barrel on Monday morning, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded at $90.50 a barrel.

Brent futures were around $72 before the war. The disruption to shipping through the strait has sent shock waves through the global economy, prompting countries to scramble for alternatives and sending fuel prices soaring.

Iran continues to claim control over the waterway, and ships travelling without its authorisation risk attack. Nevertheless, more vessels are getting through, while alternative routes are operating at full capacity.

Despite the recovery in exports, experts warned that conditions remained far from normal. A US blockade of Iranian ports continues to restrict a large share of Iran’s own oil exports.

Saudi Arabia has benefited from the reopening of its East–West pipeline, which connects its main oil fields in the east to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz.

The pipeline shut down on 11 September after strikes launched from Iraq and resumed operations on 22 September, Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said last week.

The UAE also has a route around Hormuz through its pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to Fujairah, a terminal on the Gulf of Oman outside the strait.

The recovery in exports comes as the seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to leave their production targets unchanged for November, in line with expectations.

The seven countries produced about 25 million barrels of crude oil a day in August, up 630,000 barrels a day from July, according to OPEC’s September report.