Without climate change, flood peaks in Europe from Storm Boris would have been as much as 22% lower, models suggest
Summary author: Abigail Eisenstadt
Flood peaks in central Europe from the calamitous 2024 Storm Boris would have been 14 to 22% lower without the influence of human-driven climate change, new models suggest. Precipitation, meanwhile, would have been 6 to 9% lower. “Anthropogenic climate change substantially amplified the flooding associated with Storm Boris beyond what would be expected when studying precipitation intensification alone,” Peter Miersch and colleagues write. Research shows that human-driven climate change has directly intensified extreme precipitation events. As such, it’s likely that climate change has also contributed to intensifying floods – but more studies must be done to define these relationships further. Miersch et al. used 2024’s Storm Boris as a case study to examine the influence of anthropogenic climate change on precipitation and flooding in central Europe. Using hydrological models, climate models, and a storyline framework (an approach that reconstructs a narrative through data), they determined that precipitation from Storm Boris would have been 6 to 9% lower if there was no anthropogenic forcing. Meanwhile, flood peak magnitude would have been 14 to 22% lower. Moreover, because of human-driven climate change, flood peaks increased by more than double the increase for event precipitation.
Journal
Science Advances
Article Title
Evidence from 2024 Storm Boris indicates anthropogenic climate change amplifies floods more than extreme precipitation
Article Publication Date
28-Oct-2026
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