Retailers Forecast Early US Import Peak Season Followed by Further Declines
In an effort to get ahead of some of the potential price increases due to fuel costs and possible new tariffs from the Trump administration, the National Retail Federation expects retailers to accelerate their import schedule. They believe this will create an early peak season, further aided by soft year-over-year comparisons before import volumes resume their year-over-year declines.
“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
The NRF’s forecast in the Global Port Tracker expects a short-lived bump up in numbers, maintaining levels above an aggregate 2 million TEU per month at the major U.S. ports and year-over-year increases for May (2.14 million TEU) and June (2.25 million TEU). June is likely to be the best month of the year according to the NRF forecast, and put the first half of the year at 12.6 million TEU, up less than one percent over 2025. Also aiding the comparison were the sharp declines in import container volumes after April 2025 and the introduction of Donald Trump’s global reciprocal tariffs, which were later overturned by the courts.
“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hacket Associates. “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”
The outlook is for an early peak compared to typical years when imports are strongest in July and August as retailers prepare for key selling seasons. The NRF expects year-over-year declines for July, August, and September and a flat October. The retail trade group has not yet issued its end of year 2026 forecast, but expects that, as tariffs and higher shipping costs remain a concern, imports will remain at lower levels.
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