‘Societal tipping points’ could preserve safe climate

University of Exeter

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A new project aims to identify “societal tipping points” to ensure a safe future for humanity on Earth.

With global warming set to exceed 1.5°C, the extent and duration of “overshoot” above this level must be minimised to avoid existential risks.

An international team of researchers say this can only be achieved through a rapid transformation of how our societies think, organise, produce, consume and move.

The project – which has received a European Research Council (ERC) Synergy Grant of almost 10 million euros – will diagnose how such societal tipping can occur, and whether it could bring Earth back within a “safe operating space”.

The team is jointly led by researchers from the University of Exeter, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Wageningen University & Research, and Princeton University.

Professor Tim Lenton, Exeter’s lead researcher on the project, said: “I am over the moon about this funding award, as it will enable us to answer to what extent positive social tipping points can get us safely back within planetary boundaries.”

Dr Femke Nijsse, deputy director of Exeter Climate Policy, said: “I’m really pleased to see this project funded. I’m excited that we can now explore, with real-world evidence, how positive tipping points can reinforce each other to help bring about a sustainable future faster.”

Professor Johan Rockström, PIK director, said: “Until now, we have focused mainly on understanding and avoiding negative tipping points. But it is just as important to understand how we can trigger positive ones. This project gives us the opportunity to answer these questions and help shape a more sustainable future.”

Professor Marten Scheffer, Wageningen’s lead on the project, said: “Exeter and Wageningen are global leaders of the research on anticipating tipping points. Now we will apply all we learned to the questions that keep us awake at night.”

Professor Elke Weber, Director of the Behavioral Science for Policy Lab at Princeton University, added: “Many researchers and organisations have called for sustainability research that crosses levels of analysis, from individual action to collective action and on to system-level responses, as well as research that bridges theory and empirics and enriches our models of the energy transition. In Project Groundswell we will combine our expertise and give it our best shot to do all that.”

A tipping point is a threshold where a small change can trigger a significant, often irreversible, transformation.

Researchers have identified many Earth system tipping points that will cause catastrophic harm unless humanity takes urgent action.

However, “positive tipping points” in our societies and economies could offer a route to a safe, just and sustainable future.

The new project will analyse how past societal transformations emerged and unfolded, and probe current trends in the energy and food sectors to detect approaching social and technological transformations.

It will also explore the role of individual and collective motivation and decision making and how they shape – and are shaped by – social and technological innovation, as well as environmental change.

Using this evidence-based approach, the team will model how and when societal transformations could to bring us back within the safe operating space for our species.

The project is called “GROUNDSWELL: Societal tipping towards a safe future for humanity on Earth.”

 

Urban expansion causes ecological collapse in streams in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (Brazil)

Study reveals that the loss of biodiversity and ecological interactions compromises the natural purification of the water that supplies the region’s more than 22 million residents

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo

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A section of a stream in a micro-watershed in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (photo: 

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Credit: Luis Schiesari/CBioClima

The advance of urbanization in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area in Brazil is causing the collapse of food webs in local streams. A study published in August in the journal Nature Cities reveals that the impact of the metropolis goes far beyond a simple reduction in species. Degradation selectively eliminates organisms based on their size and simplifies ecological interactions. Networks of 190 connections plummet to just three. With the flow of energy in these ecosystems reduced by more than a thousandfold, the streams lose their ability to perform critical environmental services, such as breaking down and neutralizing toxic pollutants. This directly affects the quality of the water that supplies the region’s more than 22 million residents.

Victor Saito, a professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar), and Luis Schiesari, a professor of Environmental Management at the University of São Paulo (USP), led the research. Both are affiliated with the Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change (CBioClima), a Research, Innovation, and Dissemination Center (RIDC) supported by FAPESP.

The study focused on analyzing the size structure of organisms that make up stream communities. The findings showed that the loss of biodiversity was not random; urban environments favored only small organisms, eliminating the very small, medium-sized, and large ones. Since body size determines an animal’s required resources and its predators and prey, this selective extinction disrupts the entire ecosystem.

To conduct the analysis, the researchers carried out comparative sampling in headwater streams – the small waterways that feed into larger rivers – distributed across micro-watersheds in the Upper Tietê region. Thirty micro-watersheds were selected to represent all stages of urbanization, from areas entirely covered by Atlantic Forest to areas entirely urbanized.

The researchers collected fish and invertebrates to reconstruct the food webs at each site, taking into account the body sizes and feeding preferences of the sampled animals. Based on this reconstruction, they estimated the energy flowing through the ecosystem using the predation relationships between predators and their prey.

“What we observed was the near-complete loss of biodiversity and the collapse of stream ecosystems even in the earliest stages of human occupation of the microbasin. The complexity of the food webs plummeted from 190 estimated interactions in fully forested microbasins to just three in fully urbanized areas,” says Schiesari. According to the researcher, this collapse is evident even in microbasins with only 12.5% urban coverage and significant forest cover, meaning degradation occurs right from the earliest stages of urbanization rather than gradually.

This simplification has consequences for ecosystem functioning since food webs represent pathways through which energy and carbon flow between organisms. Complex food webs slow the flow of matter in streams, promoting slow processing, which leads to the breakdown of toxic pollutants. “In streams with simple food webs, matter flows faster and is deposited, after incomplete processing, in the lowest points of the terrain. But it’s in those low-lying areas that the reservoirs used for public supply are located, such as the Billings reservoir, which receives water from several microbasins sampled in the study,” the researchers emphasize.

“We can imagine a food web as a mesh: the more threads and connections it has, the more complex the possibilities of energy transfer. Urbanization removes these threads until only a small, simplified, and potentially fragile network remains,” Saito explained in an interview with the UFSCar news portal.

With fewer connections, less energy circulates. The researchers estimated a 1,446-fold reduction in energy flow among communities in streams most affected by urbanization compared to those in forested areas. The results indicate that urbanization does not merely mean a reduction in species; it can profoundly alter the way the ecosystem functions.

“Each stream within a watershed contributes to the formation of major rivers and reservoirs that supply public water systems. When a stream stops processing organic matter and pollutants, those substances flow freely into larger systems, damaging the public use we depend on,” Saito emphasized.

How to reverse the trend

The study is an important step forward because it analyzes urbanization from a perspective that goes beyond simply counting species. By investigating biodiversity, organism size, food web structure, and energy and carbon flux simultaneously, the researchers demonstrated that stream transformation occurs at different levels of ecological organization.

The results serve as a warning about the importance of considering streams as complete ecosystems, not merely as waterways embedded in urban areas. In the researchers’ assessment, preserving streams in good environmental condition should be a priority. For degraded streams, it is necessary to invest in wastewater treatment, improve water quality, and restore vegetation along the banks, among other measures. According to Saito, restoration must reestablish ecological processes. “Restoring a stream doesn’t just mean improving its appearance or the quality of the water. It means restoring the conditions necessary for its biodiversity, ecological interactions, and energy flows to function again.”

In addition to UFSCar and USP, the study involved collaboration with scientists from São Paulo State University (UNESP), the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), the Federal University of ABC (UFABC), and the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.

The research that led to the publication of the article was funded by USP’s Pro-Rectorate for Research and Innovation, the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), and FAPESP through the CBioClima program.

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

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Journal

Nature Cities

DOI

10.1038/s44284-026-00495-z

Article Title

Urban expansion and the collapse of tropical stream ecosystems

 

High water, high rents: Poorest residents pay the most for climate adaptation

University of Copenhagen

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The figure assumes a water consumption of 120 m³ per household per year (Prisudviklingen for vand og spildevand, 2010) and a wastewater tariff of DKK 20.35/m³ in 2026 (HOFOR). It is assumed that 20% of the tariff, equivalent to DKK 4.07/m³, covers the drainage of rainwater.

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Credit: University of Copenhagen

As cities worldwide adapt to extreme weather, climate adaptation must prevent people from wading through flooded streets in the future. But the costs are not equally shared. A study from the University of Copenhagen shows that climate adaptation policies may even make social inequality worse. In Copenhagen, stormwater costs fall disproportionately on not-for-profit housing residents, as these neighborhoods are often located near climate adaptation projects.

Cloudburst events and increasingly severe flooding threaten to make life wetter in the years ahead.

To address this challenge, cities across the world, including Copenhagen, invest in cloudburst tunnels and in separating stormwater from wastewater to reduce pressure on the sewers.

These measures are intended to benefit all residents. However, a new study from the University of Copenhagen shows that the costs of climate change adaptation are unevenly distributed. Tenants in not-for-profit housing and apartment buildings shoulder a larger share of the bill than owners in single-family houses.

“Climate adaptation is not only about flooding and sewer capacity. It is also about rising rents. Your type of housing determines how much of the bill you pay. Our case study shows that one-size-fits-all climate adaptation policies worsen urban injustice. Stormwater costs fall disproportionately on not-for-profit housing residents, despite Copenhagen’s reputation for climate leadership.” said Natalie Marie Gulsrud, Associate Professor at the Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen.

She is first-author of the study “Housing Tenure, Climate Resilience, and Ecological Segregation”, published in PNAS.

The researchers analysed geographical data on climate adaptation projects and compared it with data on housing tenure and housing types. This revealed that not-for-profit housing is often sited closer to priority areas for climate adaptation.

“We can see that not-for-profit housing is often located where cloudburst routes are typically established. The problem arises when properties along these routes are required to separate stormwater from wastewater on their own land to connect it to the cloudburst system. This makes sense from a water-management perspective, but it can also impose substantial costs,” said Natalie Marie Gulsrud.

Water bills pay to keep stormwater at bay

Another inequality that the researchers noticed was the payment model. Not-for-profit housing developments typically consist of apartment blocks of four to six storeys. The increased drainage charges are calculated on the basis of drinking water consumption in each dwelling rather than on the amount of rainwater that actually runs off the roof into the public drainage system.

As a result, a four-storey building with a roof area of 100 m² pays four times as much as a comparable single-storey detached house if each dwelling uses the same amount of drinking water.

According to the researchers, the payment model favours single-family households. Consequently, multi-storey housing bears a disproportionate share of the financing of urban climate adaptation.

“It would be fair if payment reflected the amount of stormwater each property actually discharges into the sewer system. At present, charges are tied to drinking water consumption instead. There is a fundamental inequity in the way water bills are allocated and in how residents pay for climate adaptation and cloudburst management. As water charges continue to rise, the burden falls most heavily on the most marginalised members of society,” said Natalie Marie Gulsrud.

Who carries the cost?

The study identified siloed governance as a hidden root cause behind unequal adaptation costs. By improving the coordination between social and technical departments, the costs of climate adaptation and stormwater management could be distributed more evenly across social groups and support a fair green transition, according to the researchers.

“In this paper we hope to introduce a human aspect to a highly technical topic involving stormwater pipes, housing tenure, and climate financing,” said Natalie Marie Gulsrud.

“Who gets protected as the climate changes, and who carries the cost? A just transition needs social and technical governance working together, not on separate tracks. If we don't fix this, we risk deepening socio ecological inequalities in the green transition. We hope this research moves us closer to a transition that is genuinely just and caring.”

 

[BOX:] Case study: Hørgården

The researchers used Hørgården as a case study. The area is included on the Ministry of Social Affairs and Housing’s Prevention Areas list, and around 60 per cent of residents have an income below the Danish average.

As part of the implementation of a cloudburst conveyance route, Hørgården is required to separate stormwater from wastewater. Disconnecting roof run-off from the sewer system represents a significant expense for residents. Hørgården is an older housing development, and extensive sewer renovation and reconstruction will be required before the necessary climate adaptation measures can be completed. Ultimately, the costs are likely to be reflected in residents’ rents.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2422764123

Article Title

Housing tenure, climate resilience, and ecological segregation

Distance to cloudburst tunnels in Copenhagen by neighborhood. Non-profit housing is outlined in black; the Hørgården case study is highlighted in yellow. Sources: City of Copenhagen open data; CLMS, EU Space.

Credit

University of Copenhagen

 

New genetic atlas reveals traces of 10,000 years of sheep breeding

Researchers have created a genetic atlas of sheep and combined it with 10,000 years of ancient DNA. The findings reveal new clues about how domestication and selective breeding have shaped gene regulation. The study is published in Nature Genetics.

Aarhus University

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For around 10,000 years, humans have selectively bred sheep for desirable traits. Generation after generation, we have chosen animals for their wool, size and reproductive characteristics and gradually left our mark on their DNA.

But how has this long history of breeding affected the genetic mechanisms that control when and where genes are active?

An international team of researchers, including scientists from Aarhus University, has now brought us closer to answering that question.

The team has developed the most comprehensive map to date of how genetic variation influences gene regulation in sheep. By studying 51 different tissues and cell types, the researchers identified hundreds of thousands of genetic regulatory effects.

The resulting atlas, called SheepGTEx, allows scientists to connect genetic variants with specific genes, biological mechanisms and the tissues in which they act.

And it has already revealed new insights into the history of sheep domestication.

By combining the atlas with DNA from 52 ancient sheep spanning appr. 10,000 years, the researchers found evidence that domestication and selective breeding have shaped not only the DNA sequences of sheep, but also the genetic mechanisms that regulate gene activity.

One finding was particularly striking: Genetic variants that regulate genes in just one or a few tissues showed stronger signs of selection than variants that affect multiple tissues.

"What surprised me most was the relationship between tissue-specific gene regulation and the genetic signatures left by selection. Our findings suggest that domestication and breeding may have altered particular traits by changing gene regulation in specific tissues," says Lingzhao Fang, associate professor at the Center for Quantitative Genetics and Genomics (QGG) at Aarhus University.

Becoming common over millennia

The researchers found evidence that thousands of years of selective breeding have influenced genetic variants that regulate gene activity in tissues such as the skin and cervix. These patterns are consistent with human selection for traits related to wool, pigmentation and reproduction.

But why does it matter that these genetic changes are associated with particular tissues?

Because genes do not necessarily behave in the same way throughout the body. Genetic variants can influence how active a gene is in one tissue without having the same effect elsewhere.

One example involves THNSL2, a gene whose activity in the skin is influenced by genetic variation. The researchers found that a variant associated with higher THNSL2 activity in modern sheep generally became more common among European sheep between the Neolithic period and the Middle Ages, although its frequency fluctuated over time.

By combining ancient DNA with their findings from modern sheep, the researchers could infer how the genetic regulation of this gene may have changed over thousands of years.

The finding is particularly interesting because wool grows from hair follicles in the skin. It suggests a possible connection between changes in gene regulation during domestication and the evolution of wool-related traits, although the researchers have not established a direct effect on wool production.

"What makes this finding particularly interesting is that we can trace how a genetic variant associated with gene activity in the skin became more common over thousands of years. It gives us a glimpse of how domestication may have shaped not only the genes sheep carry, but also how those genes are regulated," says Lingzhao Fang.

A genetic atlas covering the entire sheep body

These new insights into sheep domestication are the result of a major international research effort.

The team analysed 6,761 RNA-sequencing samples from 2,816 sheep, covering 51 tissues and cell types. They investigated seven types of molecular regulation and mapped hundreds of thousands of genetic regulatory effects.

Together, these data provide a far more detailed picture of how genetic variation influences gene regulation across the sheep body than was previously available.

Until now, genetic studies could identify regions of the genome associated with particular traits, but often struggled to pinpoint the genes involved, the biological mechanisms at work or the tissues in which the variants exerted their effects.

SheepGTEx helps to bridge that gap.

The atlas has also revealed new insights into traits in modern sheep.

For example, the researchers identified a genetic association involving the regulation of a gene called FXYD1 in the anterior pituitary gland, a hormone-producing tissue that plays an important role in reproduction. The finding provides a possible clue to the biological mechanisms underlying differences in litter size.

It does not prove that FXYD1 determines how many lambs a sheep produces. However, it gives researchers a specific biological hypothesis that can now be tested experimentally.

The SheepGTEx map is the result of extensive collaboration between research groups around the world. Aarhus University played an important role in shaping the project's scientific strategy, coordinating international efforts and bringing together expertise in molecular genetics, quantitative genetics and animal breeding.

The atlas is publicly available, allowing researchers worldwide to explore new questions about sheep biology, evolution and genetic traits.

Future sheep breeding

Beyond shedding light on the past, SheepGTEx could also help shape the future of sheep breeding.

Modern breeding programmes already use genetic markers to predict an animal's genetic potential. However, scientists do not always know which biological mechanisms underlie these markers.

With SheepGTEx, researchers can identify genetic variants that are more likely to have functional effects and investigate how they relate to economically important traits, including fertility and wool quality.

There is still work to be done before these findings can be used directly in breeding programmes. The candidate variants need to be validated in independent sheep populations, their biological effects must be tested, and researchers need to establish whether incorporating this information actually improves the accuracy of genomic predictions.

Nevertheless, the atlas provides a valuable new starting point.

"We now have a much stronger foundation for identifying the genetic variants that deserve further investigation. In the longer term, our goal is to translate this knowledge into more precise breeding tools," says Lingzhao Fang.

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Journal

Nature Genetics

DOI

10.1038/s41588-026-02825-2

Article Title

A multi-tissue atlas of genetic regulatory effects in sheep

Article Publication Date

9-Nov-2026

GLOBAL WAR ON LGBTQ RIGHTS

Perceiving greater discrimination in healthcare, the LGBTQIA+ community delays seeking medical appointments

University of Córdoba

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reserachers who carried out the study

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Credit: University of Cordoba

Perceiving greater discrimination in healthcare, the LGBTQIA+ community delays seeking medical appointments

A University of Córdoba study compares the perceived discrimination in healthcare among young people ages 18 to 40 forming part of the LGBTQIA+ community and their cisgender peers

People in the LGBTQ+ community face extra barriers in their daily lives due to their sexual orientation or gender identity. One of the areas where these individuals sometimes suffer discrimination is in healthcare. In fact, a survey by the State Federation of Lesbians, Gays, Trans, Bisexual, and Intersex People found that more than 20% of the trans people surveyed had felt discriminated against when visiting primary care providers.

In this context, researchers Andrea Miranda and Judith Velasco, along with their colleague Francisco Javier Sanmartín, with the Department of Psychology at the University of Córdoba (UCO), sought to conduct research on young LGBTQ+ individuals' perception of discrimination by exploring several questions: Do these individuals feel more discriminated against than cisgender individual? Does this affect their trust in healthcare providers and cause them to attend appointments less often?

"We conducted a study combining both quantitative and qualitative approaches," explained researcher Francisco J. Sanmartín. "The quantitative data, gathered through closed-ended questionnaires, showed us that gay, bisexual, lesbian, and trans individuals reported higher rates of perceived discrimination than cisgender individuals, although the latter also felt discriminated against," continued researcher Judith Velasco. Specifically, 217 people between the ages of 18 and 40 took part in the study.

It was in-depth qualitative interviews with 23 of these individuals that brought the issue to light: while cisgender people felt discriminated against because their explanations were overlooked,  or because of the clash between medical authority and their personal experiences, members of the LGBTQIA+ community perceived higher levels of discrimination, which they linked directly to their sexual orientation or gender identity. The main discriminatory experiences suffered by these individuals included the use of "dead names" for trans people (the ones they had before transitioning), the incorrect use of pronouns despite an explicit request to use the appropriate ones, and the application of biases related to promiscuity, paternalism, or moral judgments toward gay, lesbian, and bisexual people.

"Perceived discrimination was associated with greater psychological distress and lower trust in healthcare professionals," Velasco noted. Thus, this perceived discrimination led these individuals from the community to seek medical consultations less often and also to resort to strategies such as concealing their sexual orientation or gender identity. This concealment can lead to misdiagnoses or less effective treatments, but people also associated the visibility of these issues during consultations with prejudices, biases, and the linking of pathologies to their identity or orientation without exploring other issues. Thus, the study demonstrates that delays in LGBTQ+ individuals seeking medical care can lead to worse prognoses for their illnesses, whether physical or psychological.

For the research team, this study highlights a lack of training, as "medical staff do not act with ill intent; rather, there is a lack of training and of updated protocols that promote sensitivity toward these individuals and ensure that they receive individualized care," concluded Sanmartín. According to the team, this training should begin in the university setting, with content that cuts across all subjects, with a view to improving healthcare later at the doctor's office.

Reference:

Miranda-Tena, A., Sanmartín, F.J. & Velasco, J. Perceived Healthcare Discrimination and Its Impact on Mistrust and Delayed Care Among Sexual and Gender Minority Young Adults in Spain. Arch Sex Behav 55, 2817–2828 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-026-03516-z

 

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Journal

Archives of Sexual Behavior

DOI

10.1007/s10508-026-03516-z

Method of Research

Survey

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Perceived Healthcare Discrimination and Its Impact on Mistrust and Delayed Care Among Sexual and Gender Minority Young Adults in Spain