Trump Is Dealing With a Different North Korea
With all of President Donald Trump’s wars – Iran, Yemen, Ukraine, Nigeria, Somalia, Venezuela, and cartels – it’s easy to lose track of what is happening on the Korean Peninsula. However, since Trump returned to the White House, a series of developments on the Korean Peninsula have increased the risk that a relatively minor border incident could escalate into a much larger conflict.
The first, and potentially most important, was a policy shift by Pyongyang that began before Trump returned to the White House. North Korea abandoned its longstanding goal of reunification with South Korea, moving toward treating the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) as an international border.
Pyongyang ruled out any direct negotiations with Seoul. North Korea argues that South Korea is a proxy of the US, and therefore any meaningful agreement will be with Washington, not Seoul.
Additionally, Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is in no hurry to meet with Trump. Pyongyang says that preconditions to any negotiations include Washington dropping its demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons, and the US must end its hostile policy.
And while Trump has suggested he would like to meet with Kim, Washington has refused to drop the demand for denuclearization, and Pyongyang has rejected any talks.
With the diplomatic pathway at a standstill, concerning military developments have emerged on the Korean Peninsula.
Over the past several months, the US has participated in two major rounds of military exercises in the region, including the bilateral Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) drills with South Korea in August and the trilateral Freedom Edge exercises with South Korea and Japan in September.
While Trump announced the UFS would be halved as they are too hostile toward North Korea, Pyongyang argued that the gesture was not enough and that even the scaled-back war games were proof of Washington’s aggressive posture.
North Korea responded to the war games with its standard fiery rhetoric and missile tests.
The annual wargames typically cause a few months of heightened tensions on the peninsula before flaming out. However, this year other developments have continued to escalate the situation.
First, Pyongyang is upset by the US aiding South Korea and Japan’s efforts to develop nuclear-powered attack submarines. North Korea has also accused the US of upsetting regional stability through its support for South Korea’s nuclear-powered submarine ambitions. Pyongyang has separately criticized discussions in Japan about acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.
Adding to tensions is a landmine explosion south of the border that injured three South Korean soldiers. Seoul says that North Korea planted the mine on the southern side of the DMZ, but Pyongyang denies the allegation.
Seoul said it would take “countermeasures” in response to the landmine south of the MDL.
Last month, Kim Yo Jong, a senior official and sister of Supreme Leader Kim, warned that the situation inside the DMZ had become concerning. “Now the situation of the southern border is very unstable,” Kim said. “A grave situation is prevailing along the southern border due to the reckless behavior of the ROK military gangsters.”
Kim also accused South Korean soldiers of repeatedly firing warning shots and issuing loudspeaker warnings at North Korean troops working near the border.
She continued, “To cope with the prevailing situation, our military leadership is examining the issues of deploying more tactical strike means along the southern border as a preemptive and suppressive measure to deal with contingency, and of resuming the loudspeaker broadcasting against the ROK, and considering other necessary and appropriate measures.”
The situation creates the possibility that a relatively minor incident along the heavily militarized DMZ could provoke retaliation, triggering a cycle of escalation.
Nearly all the progress that was made between the US, South Korea, and North Korea aimed at ending the decades-long hostility has now been undone. When Trump first took office, tensions on the Korean Peninsula were high, in part, from a similar landmine explosion in the south-side of the DMZ in 2015.
While Trump initially approached Kim with threats of nuclear annihilation, Seoul would eventually help to broker talks between Washington and Pyongyang. Kim would meet several times with Trump during his first administration, as well as multiple summits with then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
The diplomacy resulted in a moratorium on kinetic US-South Korean war games and North Korean missile tests. Additionally, Pyongyang and Seoul began removing military posts and loudspeakers along the MDL. Loudspeakers and border outposts are now back.
No doubt, there is a significant reason for pessimism in Korea. However, there is one bright spot: Kim – in statements from North Korean officials – and Trump continue to tout the positive relationship between the two leaders.
Maybe the relationship will rekindle the diplomatic period from 2018-2020, but that seems to require Washington recognizing Pyongyang’s new conditions for talks. The Trump administration may believe that it is dealing with the same North Korea it was in 2018, but Pyongyang’s geopolitical standing has significantly shifted during the Joe Biden presidency.
A major victory for Kim was signing a mutual defense pact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a treaty that was sealed with North Korean blood after Ukraine invaded Kursk. The treaty gives Pyongyang a powerful new partner and raises the potential costs of a conflict involving North Korea.
Additionally, the US military has been depleted by supporting Ukraine and the ongoing war against Iran. As Washington is struggling to keep enough military assets in the Middle East, it moves its aircraft carrier strike group and advanced air defense systems out of East Asia.
An emboldened Kim will be less likely to make concessions to the US than he was just a few years ago, and renewed diplomacy with North Korea will require Washington understanding the new reality.
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