Friday, January 07, 2022

Astronomers find the biggest structure in the Milky Way: A filament of hydrogen 3,900 light-years long

Astronomers find the biggest structure in the milky way, a filament of hydrogen 1,600 light-years long — The section of the Milky Way, as measured by ESA’s Gaia satellite (top).

Roughly 13.8 billion years ago, our universe was born in a massive explosion that gave rise to the first subatomic particles and the laws of physics as we know them. About 370,000 years later, hydrogen had formed, the building block of stars, which fuse hydrogen and helium in their interiors to create all the heavier elements. While hydrogen remains the most pervasive element in the universe, it can be difficult to detect individual clouds of hydrogen gas in the interstellar medium (ISM).

This makes it difficult to research the early phases of star formation, which would offer clues about the evolution of galaxies and the cosmos. An international team led by astronomers from the Max Planck Institute of Astronomy (MPIA) recently noticed a massive filament of atomic hydrogen gas in our galaxy. This structure, named Maggie, is located about 55,000 light-years away (on the other side of the Milky Way) and is one of the longest structures ever observed in our galaxy.

The study that describes their findings, which recently appeared in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics, was led by Jonas Syed, a Ph.D. student at the MPIA. He was joined by researchers from the University of Vienna, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA), the Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy (MPIFR), the University of Calgary, the Universität Heidelberg, the Centre for Astrophysics and Planetary Science, the Argelander-Institute for Astronomy, the Indian Institute of Science, and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

The research is based on data obtained by the HI/OH/Recombination line survey of the Milky Way (THOR), an observation program that relies on the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) in New Mexico. Using the VLA's centimeter-wave radio dishes, this project studies molecular cloud formation, the conversion of atomic to molecular hydrogen, the galaxy's magnetic field, and other questions related to the ISM and star formation.

The ultimate purpose is to determine how the two most common hydrogen isotopes converge to create dense clouds that rise to new stars. The isotopes include atomic hydrogen (H), composed of one proton, one electron, and no neutrons, and molecular hydrogen (H2)—or Deuterium—is composed of one proton, one neutron and one electron. Only the latter condenses into relatively compact clouds that will develop frosty regions where new stars eventually emerge.

Credit: Universe Today

The process of how atomic hydrogen transitions to molecular hydrogen is still largely unknown, which made this extraordinarily long filament an especially exciting find. Whereas the largest known clouds of molecular gas typically measure around 800 light-years in length, Maggie measures 3,900 light-years long and 130 light-years wide. As Syed explained in a recent MPIA press release:

"The location of this filament has contributed to this success. We don't yet know exactly how it got there. But the filament extends about 1600 light-years below the Milky Way plane. The observations also allowed us to determine the velocity of the hydrogen gas. This allowed us to show that the velocities along the filament barely differ."

The team's analysis showed that matter in the filament had a mean velocity of 54 km/s-1, which they determined mainly by measuring it against the rotation of the Milky Way disk. This meant that radiation at a wavelength of 21 cm (aka the "hydrogen line") was visible against the cosmic background, making the structure discernible. "The observations also allowed us to determine the velocity of the hydrogen gas," said Henrik Beuther, the head of THOR and a co-author on the study. "This allowed us to show that the velocities along the filament barely differ."

From this, the researchers concluded that Maggie is a coherent structure. These findings confirmed observations made a year before by Juan D. Soler, an astrophysicist with the University of Vienna and co-author on the paper. When he observed the filament, he named it after the longest river in his native Colombia: the Río Magdalena (Anglicized: Margaret, or "Maggie"). While Maggie was recognizable in Soler's earlier evaluation of the THOR data, only the current study proves beyond a doubt that it is a coherent structure.

Based on previously published data, the team also estimated that Maggie contains 8 percent molecular hydrogen by a mass fraction. On closer inspection, the team noticed that the gas converges at various points along the filament, which led them to conclude that the hydrogen gas accumulates into large clouds at those locations. They further speculate that atomic gas will gradually condense into a molecular form in those environments.

"However, many questions remain unanswered," Syed added. "Additional data, which we hope will give us more clues about the fraction of molecular gas, are already waiting to be analyzed." Fortunately, several space-based and ground-based observatories will become operational soon, telescopes that will be equipped to study these filaments in the future. These include the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and radio surveys like the Square Kilometer Array (SKA), which will allow us to view the very earliest period of the universe ("cosmic dawn") and the first stars in our universe.Scientists discover more about the ingredients for star formation

More information: J. Syed et al, The "Maggie" filament: Physical properties of a giant atomic cloud, Astronomy & Astrophysics (2021). DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202141265

Journal information: Astronomy & Astrophysics

Provided by Universe Today

Astronomers witness a dying star reach its explosive end

by W. M. Keck Observatory

For the very first time, astronomers have imaged in real time the dramatic end to a red supergiant's life, watching the massive star's rapid self-destruction and final death throes before it collapsed into a Type II supernova.

Using two Hawaiʻi telescopes—the University of Hawaiʻi Institute for Astronomy Pan-STARRS on Haleakalā, Maui and W. M. Keck Observatory on Maunakea, Hawaiʻi Island—a team of researchers conducting the Young Supernova Experiment (YSE) transient survey observed the red supergiant during its last 130 days leading up to its deadly detonation.

"This is a breakthrough in our understanding of what massive stars do moments before they die," says Wynn Jacobson-Galán, an NSF Graduate Research Fellow at UC Berkeley and lead author of the study. "Direct detection of pre-supernova activity in a red supergiant star has never been observed before in an ordinary Type II supernova. For the first time, we watched a red supergiant star explode!"

The discovery is published in today's issue of The Astrophysical Journal.

Pan-STARRS first detected the doomed massive star in Summer of 2020 via the huge amount of light radiating from the red supergiant. A few months later, in Fall of 2020, a supernova lit the sky.

The team quickly captured the powerful flash and obtained the very first spectrum of the energetic explosion, named supernova 2020tlf, or SN 2020tlf, using Keck Observatory's Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (LRIS). The data showed direct evidence of dense circumstellar material surrounding the star at the time of explosion, likely the same exact gas that Pan-STARRS had imaged the red supergiant star violently ejecting earlier in the summer.

An artist’s rendition of a red supergiant star transitioning into a Type II supernova, emitting a violent eruption of radiation and gas on its dying breath before collapsing and exploding. Credit: W. M. Keck Observatory/Adam Makarenko

"Keck was instrumental in providing direct evidence of a massive star transitioning into a supernova explosion," says senior author Raffaella Margutti, an associate professor of astronomy at UC Berkeley. "It's like watching a ticking time bomb. We've never confirmed such violent activity in a dying red supergiant star where we see it produce such a luminous emission, then collapse and combust, until now."

The team continued to monitor SN 2020tlf after the explosion; based on data obtained from Keck Observatory's DEep Imaging and Multi-Object Spectrograph (DEIMOS) and Near Infrared Echellette Spectrograph (NIRES), they determined SN 2020tlf's progenitor red supergiant star, located in the NGC 5731 galaxy about 120 million light-years away as seen from Earth, was 10 times more massive than the Sun.

The discovery defies previous ideas of how red supergiant stars evolve right before blowing up. Prior to this, all red supergiants observed before exploding were relatively quiescent: they showed no evidence of violent eruptions or luminous emission, as was observed prior to SN 2020tlf. However, this novel detection of bright radiation coming from a red supergiant in the final year before exploding suggests that at least some of these stars must undergo significant changes in their internal structure that then results in the tumultuous ejection of gas moments before they collapse.

Margutti and Jacobson-Galán conducted most of the study during their time at Northwestern University, with Margutti serving as an Associate Professor of Physics and Astronomy and member of CIERA (Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics), and Jacobson-Galán as a graduate student.

The team's discovery paves a path forward for transient surveys like YSE to hunt for luminous radiation coming from red supergiants, and gather more evidence that such behavior could signal the imminent, supernova demise of a massive star.

"I am most excited by all of the new 'unknowns' that have been unlocked by this discovery," says Jacobson-Galán. "Detecting more events like SN 2020tlf will dramatically impact how we define the final months of stellar evolution, uniting observers and theorists in the quest to solve the mystery on how massive stars spend the final moments of their lives."Merger between two stars led to blue supergiant, iconic supernova

More information: Final Moments. I. Precursor Emission, Envelope Inflation, and Enhanced Mass Loss Preceding the Luminous Type II Supernova 2020tlf, Astrophysical Journal (2022). iopscience.iop.org/article/10. … 847/1538-4357/ac3f3a

Journal information: Astrophysical Journal

Provided by W. M. Keck Observatory

Remarkable Connection Discovered Between Supernovae and Life on Earth

By TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK JANUARY 6, 2022

Illustration of the Milky Way seen from Earth where supernova accelerates cosmic rays to high energies. Some of these cosmic ray particles enterers the Earth’s atmosphere, where they produce shower structures of secondary particles. A surprising result is that changes in cosmic rays through Earths history has influenced life on Earth. Credit: H. Svensmark/DTU Space

A remarkable link between the number of nearby exploding stars, called supernovae and life on Earths has been discovered.

Evidence demonstrates a close connection between the fraction of organic matter buried in sediments and changes in supernovae occurrence. This correlation is apparent during the last 3.5 billion years and in closer detail over the previous 500 million years.

The correlation indicates that supernovae have set essential conditions under which life on Earth had to exist. This is concluded in a new research article published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters by senior researcher Dr. Henrik Svensmark, DTU Space.

According to the article, an explanation for the observed link between supernovae and life is that supernovae influence Earth’s climate. A high number of supernovae leads to a cold climate with a significant temperature difference between the equator and polar regions. This results in strong winds and ocean mixing, vital for delivering nutrients to biological systems. High nutrient concentration leads to a larger bioproductivity and a more extensive burial of organic matter in sediments. A warm climate has weaker winds and less mixing of the oceans, diminished supply of nutrients, a smaller bioproductivity, and less burial of organic matter.

“A fascinating consequence is that moving organic matter to sediments is indirectly the source of oxygen. Photosynthesis produces oxygen and sugar from light, water and CO₂. However, if organic material is not moved into sediments, oxygen and organic matter become CO₂ and water. The burial of organic material prevents this reverse reaction. Therefore, supernovae indirectly control oxygen production, and oxygen is the foundation of all complex life,” says author Henrik Svensmark.

In the paper, a measure of the concentration of nutrients in the ocean over the last 500 Million years correlates reasonably with the variations in supernovae frequency. The concentration of nutrients in the oceans is found by measuring trace elements in pyrite (FeS2, also called fool’s gold) embedded in black shale, which is sedimented on the seabed. Estimating the fraction of organic material in sediments is possible by measuring carbon-13 relative to carbon-12. Since life prefers the lighter carbon-12 atom, the amount of biomass in the world’s oceans changes the ratio between carbon-12 and carbon-13 measured in marine sediments.

“The new evidence points to an extraordinary interconnection between life on Earth and supernovae, mediated by the effect of cosmic rays on clouds and climate,” says Henrik Svensmark.

The link to climate

Previous studies by Svensmark and colleagues have demonstrated that ions help the formation and growth of aerosols, thereby influencing cloud fraction. Since clouds can regulate the solar energy that can reach Earth’s surface, the cosmic-ray-cloud link is important for climate. Empirical evidence shows that Earth’s climate changes when the intensity of cosmic rays changes. Supernovae frequency can vary by several hundred per cent on geological time scales, and the resulting climate changes are considerable.

“When heavy stars explode, they produce cosmic rays made of elementary particles with enormous energies. Cosmic rays travel to our solar system, and some end their journey by colliding with Earth’s atmosphere. Here, they are responsible for ionizing the atmosphere,” he says.

Reference: “Supernova Rates and Burial of Organic Matter” by Henrik Svensmark, 5 January 2022, Geophysical Research Letters.
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL096376

New research shows gene exchange between viruses and hosts drives evolution

by University of British Columbia

The first comprehensive analysis of viral horizontal gene transfer (HGT) illustrates the extent to which viruses pick up genes from their hosts to hone their infection process, while at the same time hosts also co-opt useful viral genes.

HGT is the movement of genetic material between disparate groups of organisms, rather than by the "vertical" transmission of DNA from parent to offspring. Previous studies have looked at HGT between bacteria and their viruses and have shown that it plays a major role in the movement of genes between bacterial species. However the new study, published in Nature Microbiology, looks at interactions between viruses and eukaryotes, which include animals, plants, fungi, protists and most algae.

"We knew from individual examples that viral genes have played a role in the evolution of eukaryotes. Even humans have viral genes, which are important for our development and brain function," said the study's lead author, Dr. Nicholas Irwin, a Junior Research Fellow at Merton College, University of Oxford, and former Ph.D. student at the University of British Columbia (UBC). "We wanted to understand more broadly how HGT has affected viruses and eukaryotes from across the tree of life."

To tackle this problem, the authors examined viral-eukaryotic gene transfer in the genomes of hundreds of eukaryotic species and thousands of viruses. They identified many genes that had been transferred and found that HGT from eukaryotes to viruses was twice as frequent as the reverse direction.

"We were interested to find that certain groups of viruses, especially those that infect single-celled eukaryotes, acquire a lot of genes from their hosts," said the study's senior author, Dr. Patrick Keeling, a professor in the Department of Botany at UBC. "By studying the function of these genes we were able to make predictions about how these viruses affect their hosts during infection."

In contrast to viruses, eukaryotic organisms retained fewer viral genes, although the ones that were kept appear to have had a major impact on host biology over evolutionary time.

"Many of these viral-derived genes appear to have repeatedly affected the structure and form of different organisms, from the cell walls of algae to the tissues of animals," said Dr. Irwin. "This suggests that host-virus interactions may have played an important role in driving the diversity of life we see today."

"These transfers not only have evolutionary consequences for both virus and host, but could have important health implications," Dr. Keeling said.

HGT allows genes to jump between species including viruses and their hosts. If the gene does something useful, it can sweep through the population and become a feature of that species. This can lead to a rapid emergence of new abilities, as opposed to the more incremental changes that result from smaller mutations.

Although viruses such as Zika and coronaviruses do not appear to participate in these gene transfers, they often manipulate similar genes in their hosts through complex mechanisms. Future research into these transferred genes may therefore provide a novel approach for understanding the infection processes of these and other viruses which could be important for drug discovery.

"The past two years have clearly demonstrated the destructive potential of viruses, but we think that this work serves as an interesting reminder that viruses have also contributed to the evolution of life on Earth," said Dr. Irwin.

Giant viruses may play an intriguing role in evolution of life on Earth

More information: Nicholas A. T. Irwin et al, Systematic evaluation of horizontal gene transfer between eukaryotes and viruses, Nature Microbiology (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41564-021-01026-3

Journal information: Nature Microbiology

Provided by University of British Columbia

Predator-Prey Dynamics: Evolution Happens Faster Than Expected

By UNIVERSITY OF INNSBRUCK JANUARY 6, 2022

Abstract Evolution Concept

Using a mathematical model, two scientists of the University of Innsbruck and the University of Helsinki were able to determine that in predator-prey dynamics, both sides adapt quickly through evolution.

It is a relatively new finding that evolution occurs fast enough to play an important role in population dynamics. Some recently published research shows how prey organisms adapt evolutionarily to escape predation pressure. But how important is this process? New research at the University of Innsbruck’s Research Department for Limnology in Mondsee demonstrates that in predator-prey dynamics, not only does the prey adapt through evolution, but so do the predators. The study was published in the journal Ecology and Evolution and funded by the University of Innsbruck’s Young Investigator Grant.

The classic predator-prey model

Individuals of the same species who live and reproduce together in a relatively enclosed area form a population. The size of this population can be subject to gentle or extreme fluctuations, due to various environmental influences. This decrease and increase in individuals over time is called population dynamics.

Population dynamics are often explained in terms of purely ecological processes, as can be seen in the example of predator-prey relationships. Here, population dynamics are primarily determined by prey growth rates and predator feeding rates.

A microscopic image of a ciliate. Credit: B. Sonntag

Classical predator-prey models assume that prey organisms evolve unaffected until a predator arrives and decimates the prey. Predators find abundant food and also become more abundant. Increased predation pressure reduces prey densities, which causes predator densities to decrease until prey recovers. Thus, when prey is depleted by the predator, an overall population collapse occurs. This model only represents ecological dynamics. However, predator-prey relationships are also an important cause of evolutionary adaptation.

Defense through evolution

Finnish scientists discovered in 2018 that such theoretical predictions cannot be applied literally to nature. They studied microscopic ciliates as predators and bacteria as prey. After a certain point, the number of bacteria did not decrease. There seemed to be an additional factor that influenced the dynamics. In fact, the bacteria had undergone an evolutionary change and had formed an efficient defense trait, presumably by clumping their cells together, making them too large prey for the ciliates.

Joint evolution

This experiment was the basis of a theoretical study by Thomas Scheuerl of the Research Department for Limnology at the University of Innsbruck in Mondsee and Veijo Kaitala of the University of Helsinki. They found that in a purely ecological process, predator densities should be much lower and even extinction of ciliates should follow. However, both the number of predators and that of prey settled into an equilibrium in the experiment. A purely ecological model could not reproduce these observations, when calibrated with parameters taken from the observations. The observed dynamic was reproduced mathematically only when co-evolution of predators and prey was included as a factor. “We conclude that predators also had to evolve, i.e., co-evolve, depending on prey. This is the only way the observed population dynamics and the specific equilibrium state,” says Thomas Scheuerl.

The theoretical model created in this way made it possible to test how stable the process of co-evolution had to be, allowing a wide range of other assumptions. The result: co-evolution had to take place under almost all applied conditions.

Fluctuations in the signal

Furthermore, Scheuerl and Kaitala observed that the equilibrium state in the population dynamics of the original experiment did not appear as a constant signal, but fluctuated up and down, which continued in the next generations. In the observations these were seen and predator-prey cycles were mentioned as a possible explanation, but these were not visible in the theoretical model. Only after inserting an error rate, such a fluctuating dynamic could be simulated. The researchers realized that these were oscillations that occurred when the system was pushed out of equilibrium. The point in time at which the experiment was started seemed to play a role, i.e., in which position the predator and prey curves were located. How exactly the fluctuations can be explained will be the subject of future research.

Reference: “The effect of dilution on eco-evolutionary dynamics of experimental microbial communities” by Thomas Scheuerl and Veijo Kaitala, 7 September 2021, Ecology and Evolution.
DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8065

Tim Gitzel, president and CEO of Cameco Corporation, on the rewards and risks of nuclear energy

Howard Green speaks with Tim Gitzel, CEO of Saskatchewan-based uranium company Cameco Corporation, about nuclear power and climate change.

By Howard Green

Special to the Star
Thu., Jan. 6, 2022

Generating clean electricity is one of the most pressing issues facing humankind. More than half of the world’s greenhouse gases come from producing electrical power. So to get to net zero targets, the world needs to generate electricity without carbon emissions.

One option is nuclear power.

But for years, many people have been uncomfortable with nuclear. It produces radioactive waste and a malfunction can be catastrophic. Many remember the accidents at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear energy facility and Chernobyl in the former Soviet Union.

Despite the risks, nuclear energy is considered clean power. Ontario gets more than half of its electricity from nuclear and has announced its building a new plant, while the UK and China are building many.

Going nuclear, however, requires uranium for fuel. And Saskatchewan-based Cameco Corporation is one of the world’s top producers. This week, Cameco president and CEO Tim Gitzel discusses the rewards and risks of the nuclear option.

Here is the first part of his recent interview with Howard Green, host of Connexion, a 12-part bi-weekly video series launched with the Toronto Star.

Howard Green: Great to have you with us, Tim. Thanks so much for making time.

Tim Gitzel: Howard, it’s an absolute pleasure to see you again and to be able to join you today. Thank you.

So, before we get into the issues, how does somebody get into the uranium business? It’s a bit of an unusual business to go into.

Well, that’s a bit of a story for sure, Howard. I grew up in Saskatchewan. I went to school, played hockey. I wanted to play hockey. I want to play for the Leafs. But they weren’t quite as interested on their side as I was. And so I started working a summer job in the uranium mines here in Saskatchewan. Uranium had been discovered in the ’50s. But really, the new mines were coming in the late ’70s, early ’80s and I got a summer job with Cluff Mining owned by the French.

Back in ’79, I was 17 and I worked six summers for them, two of them in Paris. We had a really enlightened CEO from Paris, and he said, ‘Well, how would you like to go work in Paris for the summer instead of at the mine?’ And so I never really left. I went back to law school and then got hired pretty much straight out of law school to go back to the uranium company and work for the French company for 15 years — 10 in Canada, five in Paris, France. And then came back here about 15 years ago with Cameco.

So it’s been your professional life, essentially. Were you ever nervous around uranium? For us out here in Saskatchewan, we know uranium. You have to learn about it. You have to learn the characteristics of it, you have to be careful around it. We are the most heavily regulated industry, I think, in Canada, and most closely watched. And so we know it well. So, am I afraid? Not at all. And when I see the life saving procedures that come out of some of the uses of uranium? Not at all.

Cameco sells to more than 30 utilities around the world. Can you tell us where the public is on the issue of nuclear now? We’re 10 years past Fukushima, which scared a lot of people off and scared the Germans off, for instance. Where are we now in terms of our comfort level with nuclear?

Over the years since the late ’70s, I’ve seen this movie played out two or three times, you know, and we hate to talk about it. But there’s been three major incidents in the nuclear space over the last 30 years. You had in ’79, Three Mile Island. A movie came out about what a catastrophe it was. Really, it wasn’t a catastrophe. Nobody got hurt. And so there was that and that really scared people from nuclear power. We had Chernobyl in ’86 and then, of course, Fukushima in 2011. Just before those, there was real momentum for nuclear power. I remember in the late ’70s we were building uranium mines because there were big nuclear plants — Japan, France, the United States, Sweden were building lots of plants. Then we went into a bit of a funk and then it starts coming back. And so we go like that. And the last one, of course, was just 10 years ago in Japan. The years before that, we didn’t think there was enough uranium on the planet to feed all of the new nuclear plants that were going to be built around the world, and we went into a lull for a while. But I’m happy to say now, Howard, we’re back. We filled in the pothole, if you like. There are some countries, Germany being one of them, that decided to phase out their nuclear post-Fukushima. So they’ve gone wind and solar, which hasn’t been particularly great for them. In our business, people want electricity, period and they want clean electricity and so options are limited. We think nuclear is going to play a big role going forward.

Are we headed for more nuclear power simply because we’re out of other options for a stable base source?

Maybe not the best selling feature, but yeah, that’s part of it, for sure. People don’t want coal. Here in Saskatchewan, we said we’re phasing out of coal by 2030, which is less than 10 years away. Now, we better get moving. Ontario has already made the move. We don’t like oil, particularly for electricity generation. Gas is better, but still a lot of CO2 coming out of there. Damming up a river is not so easy these days. You flood a lot of traditional territory. And nuclear, people say, ‘Oh boy, I don’t know if I like that very much either.’ But they also don’t like brownouts and blackouts and smog. And they want the electricity to come on when they flip the light switch in the corner of the room. And so we’re getting another look now. Many countries are looking again at nuclear power. China’s building nuclear plants, Russia, India, Canada. We’ve really got some good tailwinds and lots of interest in the space. The young people are open to listening. They don’t like climate change. They don’t like climate crisis, climate catastrophe. They know something has to be done. And so they’re willing to take another look.

This interview transcript has been edited and condensed.

You can watch the full video of the interview here.

SCHADENFREUDE

Kazakhstan’s Tycoons–Including Members Of Nazarbayev Family–Shed Billions As Stocks Plunge

David Dawkins

Forbes Staff

Billionaires

I cover the work and wealth of Europe's richest

Dinara Kulibaeva (L), Mikhail Lomtadze, Vyacheslav Kim, Timur Kulibayev (R).

The fortunes of the billionaires behind some of Kazakhstan’s best known businesses have tumbled in recent days as the country reels from sprawling national protests against the ruling regime.

Together, four Kazakh billionaires–including a daughter and son-in-law of the former president, are $3 billion poorer than they were on January 4. Protests were triggered by a sharp hike in gasoline prices last week, which quickly morphed into anger over alleged corruption in former longtime President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s political system.

Shares of two big banks–Kaspi and JSC Halyk Bank–cratered as protestors burned public buildings and toppled statues. According to a report on Friday from Benjamin Godwin, central Asia expert and head of analysis at U.K.-based PRISM Political Risk Management, the Nazarbayev family left Kazakhstan on January 5 for Moscow in five private jets. A contact, described in the report as “a minor figure in the Nazarbayev family,” said the Nazarbayevs, known to be Putin loyalists, were travelling to Moscow to “be with the family.”

TOPSHOT-KAZAKHSTAN-ENERGY-PROTEST-POLITICS — Protesters attend a rally in Almaty on January 4, 2022, after energy price hikes
AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Billionaire Vyacheslav Kim, the largest shareholder and chairman of London-listed Kaspi Bank, Kazakhstan's largest payments and fintech company, is $1.4 billion poorer, as Kaspi’s share price plunged 30% from $118 on January 4 to $87 on January 6, taking his estimated net worth from $5.7 billion to $4.2 billion

Mikhail Lomtadze, a Kazakhstan-based native of the republic of Georgia and Kaspi’s CEO, is nearly $1.4 billion poorer; his estimated net worth crashed from $5.2 billion on January 4 to $3.8 billion on January 6 across two nights of uncertainty in the country. The share price fell following reports that banks including Kaspi and Halyk would not process pension payments until the end of the government-declared state of emergency, planned for January 19.

69th ANOC Executive Council Meeting - Day 1 — Timur Kulibayev
GETTY IMAGES

Nazarbayev’s daughter, Dinara Kulibaeva, and her husband, Timur Kulibaev, have lost a combined $200 million as the value of their stake in London-listed JSC Halyk bank fell 16%. The couple, who Forbes estimates to be worth $3.1 billion each, owns a majority share of the bank, plus sprawling real estate and private investment portfolios.

Timur Kulibaev, age 55, rose up through the ranks in Kazakhstan’s natural mineral industry to become chairman of Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund, later sitting on the board of Russian energy giant Gazprom. In 1992, during the early days of privatisation in Kazakhstan, Kulibaev formed the investment group Altyn Alma to capitalise on the country's emerging opportunities; his group later morphed into Almex LLP. Success came in 2004, when a company he controlled sold Kar-Tel, operating in Kazakhstan, to VimpelCom for $350 million. In 2014, he sold Altynalmas Gold to Polymetal, part-owned by Russian billionaire Alexander Nesis, for cash and company shares. Nazarbayev has three daughters; Dinara, the second oldest, is married to Kulibaev.

G20 Leaders Meet In St. Petersburg For The Summit — Russian President Vladimir Putin, (L) and President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev
GETTY IMAGES

What’s next for Nazarbayev, the man who led Kazakhstan from the 1990s to 2019? He is “no longer present as a political force” within the country, according to Godwin of PRISM. Describing the developments as “the end of the first stage of the transition,” Godwin adds that the second stage is likely to be “extremely complex” owing to the “omnipresence of the Nazarbayev family” in Kazakhstan's post-Soviet system of state capitalism. He expects a period of transition.

The Nazarbayev family may eventually look to London for sanctuary. According to a recent report by OpenDemocracy on kleptocratic wealth in the U.K. real estate world, the extended Nazarbayev family owns some $450 million worth of luxury property in the country. Notably, U.K.-based investigative news platform SourceMaterial revealed that Nazerbayev’s daughter Nazarbayeva and her son are the owners of 221b Baker Street, the fictional home of the character Sherlock Holmes. A spokesperson for the Nazarbayev family could not be reached for comment.

The famous address is just a tiny part of the Kazakh assets in London. In April 2020 Forbes covered a government agency’s failed attempt to make the family of Nazarbayev explain ownership of three London properties disclosed to be worth $52 million, $43 million and $12 million, respectively.

World’s biggest uranium miner says unaffected by Kazakh turmoil

Reuters | January 6, 2022 |

(Image courtesy of Kazatomprom.)

Kazatomprom, the world’s biggest uranium producer, said on Thursday it was operating normally with no impact on output or exports despite unrest in Kazakhstan.

Uranium prices have risen after unrest in Kazakhstan which was spurred initially by protests against fuel price hikes. Spot prices hit $45.5 per pound on Wednesday, the highest since November 30, according to a Platts assessment.
But the central Asian country’s political turmoil does not seem to have so far affected key industries.

“Uranium mining is going according to plan there have been no stoppages. The company is fulfilling its export contracts,” a Kazatomprom spokesperson said.

Earlier, a spokesperson for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the group that transports the country’s main crude oil export blend, said it was operating normally. Production at Chevron’s Tengizchevroil venture also has continued.

Kazatomprom’s attributable production represented approximately 23% of global primary uranium output in 2020, according to the company’s website.

Kazatomprom’s London-listed shares clawed back some losses after the announcement, and by 1300 GMT they were down almost 3.6%. They earlier hit the lowest since end-September, adding to Wednesday’s 8% drop.

But shares in other uranium producers, such as Canada’s Cameco, are up nearly 12% so far this year. A uranium exchange traded fund (ETF) from Global X was up 2% on Thursday at the highest since end-November.

(By Mariya Gordeyeva, Olzhas Auyezov, Polina Devitt, Anisha Sircar and Sujata Rao; Editing by Alexander Smith and Kirsten Donovan)

Cameco’s Commentary on the Ongoing Situation in Kazakhstan

An incomplete and inaccurate representation of our comments has recently appeared in certain media outlets. Here is our full emailed response to a series of questions posed to us by Reuters:

The situation in Kazakhstan is dynamic and evolving. The national protests and the security clampdown on transport, financial and communication systems may add to pre-existing operating risks such as the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on employees and contractors, as well as global supply chain disruptions to critical goods and services required for uranium production. We will have a better understanding of the operating risks once we have had a chance to communicate with our JV partner Kazatomprom.

As 40% of world’s uranium supply, any disruption in Kazakhstan could of course be a significant catalyst in the uranium market. If nothing else, it’s a reminder for utilities that an over-reliance on any one source of supply is risky. It also reinforces the shift in risk from suppliers to utilities that has occurred in this market.

These considerations underline the benefit of Cameco’s strategy to maintain a diversified portfolio of supply sources in multiple uranium-producing jurisdictions. Cameco currently has five North American uranium operations at which production has been suspended due to the weak market conditions that emerged following the Fukushima incident, but which remain in a safe state of care and maintenance. These include the McArthur River mine and Key Lake mill (the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine and mill) and the Rabbit Lake mine/mill in northern Saskatchewan; along with the Smith Ranch-Highland and Crow Butte mines in Wyoming and Nebraska respectively.

Together, these operations represent about 24 million pounds of annual productive capacity of uranium concentrate that could be brought back online should the commodity price improve to the point where the market once again calls for increased production and we have a line of sight to the appropriate homes under long-term contracts to deliver those pounds into. At present, we can’t comment with any certainty on the length of time it might take to resume production at any of these facilities.

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