Tuesday, October 11, 2022

How climate change is shifting the water cycle

Intense monsoons and fierce drought have one thing in common: the water cycle. Climate change and other human activity is disrupting this crucial system, which makes all life on Earth possible.

The hydrological cycle ensures a continuous movement of water through the Earth's land, seas

and atmosphere

What is the water cycle?

Put simply, the water cycle — also known as the hydrological cycle — is the process by which water moves through the Earth's land, seas and atmosphere. Water in its three natural phases, be it gas, liquid or solid, forms part of the natural cycle that continuously refreshes the supply of water that we, and every other living thing, need to survive.

Of the world's finite supply of water, around 97% is salty. The remaining 3% is fresh water which we use for things like drinking, bathing or irrigating crops. Most of that, however, is out of reach, locked away in the ice or deep underground in aquifers. Only around 1% of the world's total water supply is readily available to sustain all life on Earth.

How does the water cycle work?

The water held in lakes, rivers, oceans and seas is constantly heated by the sun. As the surface warms, liquid water evaporates and becomes vapor, escaping into the atmosphere. Wind can speed up that evaporation process. Plants also release water vapor through the pores, or stoma, of their leaves and stems, in what's known as transpiration.

Once in the air, vapor begins to cool and condense around tiny, suspended particles of dust, smoke or other pollutants, and forms clouds. These clouds can move around the planet in horizontal bands known as atmospheric rivers — a key feature of the global cycle that fuels weather systems.

When enough water vapor collects, the droplets suspended in the clouds begin to merge and grow larger. Eventually, they get too heavy and fall to the ground in the form of rain — or snow and hail, depending on the air temperature. This precipitation recharges the rivers, lakes and other bodies of water down below, and the cycle begins again.

Water also percolates through the soil under the influence of gravity and pressure, where it collects in underground reservoirs or aquifers. It continues moving to lower elevations, sometimes for thousands of years, in a process called groundwater flow before eventually seeping into a body of water to rejoin the cycle.

How climate change is disrupting the water cycle

Recent research shows that in some parts of the world, the water cycle is speeding up in response to human-caused climate change.

Warmer temperatures are heating the lower atmosphere and increasing evaporation, adding more water vapor to the air. More water in the air means a greater chance of precipitation, often in the form of intense, unpredictable storms. Conversely, increased evaporation can also intensify dry conditions in areas prone to drought, with water escaping into the atmosphere rather than staying on the ground where it's needed.

A recent study by researchers at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Barcelona, Spain, illustrated how climate change is accelerating the cycle by analyzing ocean surface salinity, which increases as water evaporation intensifies.

"The acceleration of the water cycle has implications both at the ocean and on the continent, where storms could become increasingly intense," said Estrella Olmedo, the lead author of the study, in a press release. "This higher amount of water circulating in the atmosphere could also explain the increase in rainfall that is being detected in some polar areas, where the fact that it is raining instead of snowing is speeding up the melting."

What can we do to help?

It's become clear that drastic cuts to fossil fuel emissions won't be easy, and any noticeable improvements won't be quick. But some more immediate fixes to stabilize the water cycle are possible.

Restoring wetlands and rethinking agriculture, to incorporate farming techniques that conserve water and preserve and build up the soil, can help to maintain and restore the capacity of the ground to absorb, purify and store water.

'Sponge cities' use permeable surfaces, like this road in the Chinese city of Qian'an, to absorb water

Bringing rivers and waterways back to a more natural state can also help to reverse some of the damage. Projects to remove obsolete dams and weirs in Europe and elsewhere are a major step in the restoration of floodplains, which absorb water and help replenish groundwater reserves.

Cities can also turn to nature-based solutions to support the water cycle, by making urban surfaces more permeable. "Sponge cities" use porous surfaces to allow water to filter through streets, squares and other spaces rather than see it funneled away. This stores water for use during periods of drought, while at the same time helping to combat flooding.

What's at stake?

Cities and regions in the watershed of the Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges in Central Asia may need to start turning to solutions like these in the coming years. Billions of people there rely on the seasonal accumulation of packed snow and ice stored in mountains and glaciers for their fresh water.

But a third of the regions' major ice fields are expected to disappear by the end of this century, according to a 2019 study by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Nepal — and that's if we manage to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).

The Hindu Kush and Himalayan mountain ranges in Central Asia hold

the most ice in the world after the poles

Without a consistent flow of meltwater, water scarcity will increase for billions of people. And while groundwater can make up some of the shortfall, that's also projected to decrease in the coming decades due to climate change. Agriculture has already become more difficult in places like the India-administered region of Ladakh, in the Hindu Kush Himalayan range, where scientists have recorded a drop in snowfall and glacier retreat over the last few decades.

"This is the climate crisis you haven't heard of," said Philippus Wester of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. "Impacts on people in the region, already one of the most fragile and hazard-prone mountain regions in the world, will range from an increase in extreme weather events, a reduction in agricultural yields and more frequent disasters."

REWILDING SUCCESS STORIES
Harnessing people power to protect the planet
Rewilding, a social and ecological movement promoting more wilderness, has seen people across the world help restore, protect, heal and stabilize nature. Rewilding efforts have focused on repairing broken ecological systems and enhancing species survival by giving nature space to restore and manage itself. Ecologists in Europe have demanded that 20% of degenerated areas be renaturalized by 2030.
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Edited by: Tamsin Walker

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Germany launches probe into suspected Nord Stream 'sabotage'

German federal prosecutors announced an investigation into suspected blasts that damaged gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. Berlin has now joined Denmark and Sweden in gathering clues about the Baltic Sea leaks.

The Nord Stream leaks, thought to be deliberate, released massive amounts of gas into the Baltic Sea

Germany's federal public prosecutor on Monday announced the start of an investigation into leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines.

Germany now joins Denmark and Sweden in seeking to get to the bottom of leaks that saw massive amounts of gas released into the Baltic Sea after both pipelines were ruptured on September 26.

What did prosecutors say?

Federal prosecutors are investigating "persons unknown" suspected of "anti-constitutional sabotage" on the pipelines as well as "deliberately causing an explosion."

"Yes, we have started an investigation," a spokesperson for the prosecutor's office told Reuters news agency.

The investigation will allow German authorities to gather evidence to determine if a crime was indeed committed.

Germany's federal prosecutor's office usually only opens probes into cases that concern national security, such as terror attacks.

The office said its involvement in the pipeline leaks was justified in that a "violent attack on the energy supply could impact the external and internal security" of Germany, a spokesperson told news agency AFP.

German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann promised investigators would work in coordination with European partners to ascertain who may have been behind the pipeline leaks. Buschmann added, "We will not be intimidated by attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines."

Federal prosecutors say the probe is primarily aimed at "identifying the perpetrator or perpetrators as well as the possible motive."

Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson on Monday said Stockholm wouldn't share findings with Russia. Moreover, Sweden said it rejects Russian calls to be part of a joint investigation, though she said Moscow was free to conduct its own investigation should it choose to do so.

What do we know about the pipeline leaks?

It is largely suspected that the leaks in the Baltic Sea were caused by explosives placed near the pipelines, which deliver Russian natural gas to Germany.

Western leaders heavily suspect Russia was behind the attack, whereas Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to paint it as a Western plot to destroy Europe's energy infrastructure.

Germany's federal police as well as the federal criminal office will be involved in the investigation.

"There is sufficient factual evidence that the two gas pipelines were deliberately damaged by at least two detonations," the prosecutor's office told German news agency DPA.

The spokesperson noted, however, that "quick results are not to be expected."

This is a developing story and will be updated.

js/rs (AFP, dpa, Reuters)

Satellites detect methane plume in Nord Stream leak

by European Space Agency

Following unusual seismic disturbances in the Baltic Sea, several leaks were discovered last week in the underwater Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, near Denmark and Sweden. Neither pipeline was transporting gas at the time of the blasts, but they still contained pressurized methane—the main component of natural gas—which spewed out producing a wide stream of bubbles on the sea surface.

With the unexplained gas release posing a serious question about the incident's environmental impact, a suite of complementary Earth observation satellites carrying optical and radar imaging instruments were called upon to characterize the gas leak bubbling in the Baltic.

Although methane partly dissolves in water, released later as carbon dioxide, it is not toxic, but it is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas in our atmosphere causing climate change.

As the pressurized gas leaked through the broken pipe and traveled rapidly towards the sea surface, the size of the gas bubbles increased as the pressure reduced. On reaching the surface, the large gas bubbles disrupted the sea surface above the location of the pipeline rupture. The signature of the gas bubbling at the sea surface can be seen from space in several ways.

Owing to the persistent cloud cover over the area, image acquisitions from optical satellites proved extremely difficult. High-resolution images captured by Pléiades Neo and Planet, both part of ESA's Third Party Mission Program, showed the disturbance ranging from 500 to 700 m across the sea surface.

Several days later, a significant reduction in the estimated diameter of the methane disturbance was witnessed as the pipelines' gas emptied. Images captured by Copernicus Sentinel-2 and US Landsat 8 mission confirmed this.

As disturbances such as these cause a "roughening" of the sea surface, this increases the backscatter observed by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments, which are extremely sensitive to changes in the sea surface at such a scale. These include instruments onboard the Copernicus Sentinel-1 and ICEYE constellation—the first New Space company to join the Copernicus Contributing Missions fleet.

ESA's Scientist for Ocean and Ice, Craig Donlon, said, "The power of active microwave radar instruments is that they can monitor the ocean surface signatures of bubbling methane through clouds over a wide swath and at a high spatial resolution overcoming one of the major limitations to optical instruments. This allows for a more complete picture of the disaster and its associated event-timing to be established."

One of the ruptures occurred southeast of the Danish Island of Bornholm. Images from Sentinel-1 on 24 September showed no disturbance to the water. However, an ICEYE satellite passing over the area on the evening of 28 September acquired an image showing a disturbance to the sea surface above the rupture.

What about the methane released?

Although optical satellites can provide us with the radius of the methane bubbling over water, they provide little information on how much methane has been released into the atmosphere.

Monitoring methane over water is extremely difficult as water absorbs most of the sunlight in the shortwave infrared wavelengths used for methane remote sensing. This limits the amount of light reaching the sensor, thus making it extremely difficult to measure methane concentrations over the sea at high latitudes.

GHGSat, a leader in methane emissions monitoring from space and also part of ESA's Third Party Mission Program, tasked its satellites to measure the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline leak with its constellation of high-resolution (around 25 m) satellites. By tasking its satellites to obtain measurements at larger viewing angles, GHGSat were able to target the area where the sun's light reflected the strongest off the sea surface—known as the "glint spot."

On 30 September, the estimated emission rate derived from its first methane concentration measurement was 79,000 kg per hour—making it the largest methane leak ever detected by GHGSat from a single point-source. This rate is extremely high, especially considering its four days following the initial breach, and this is only one of four rupture points in the pipeline.

GHGSat Director for Europe, Adina Gillespie, said, "Predictably, the media and the world have turned to space to understand the scale of the Nord Stream industrial disaster. While we await further investigation on the cause, GHGSat responded quickly, measuring 79,000 kg per hour of methane coming from the leaks. We will continue tasking GHGSat satellites for the Nord Stream sites until we no longer detect emissions."

Claus Zehner, Copernicus Sentinel-5P, Altius and Flex Missions Manager, mentions: "Besides GHGSat, the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellite provided methane concentration measurements emitted by this pipeline leak which highlights the feasibility to use both public funded and commercial satellites in a synergistic way."

Environmental impact

Although closed at the time, the two Nord Stream stems contained enough gas to release 300,000 metric tons of methane—more than twice the amount released by the Aliso Canyon leak in California over several months in 2015–16.

As large as it may be, the Nord Stream release pales in comparison with the 80 million metric tons emitted each year by the oil and gas industry. The latest release is roughly equivalent to one and a half days of global methane emissions.

Methane observations from the Sentinel-5P satellite can observe regions with enhanced methane concentrations from strong point sources all over the world. Satellite observations are a powerful tool for improving estimates of emission strength, seeing how they change over time and can also help detect previously unknown emission sources.

Looking ahead, the upcoming atmospheric Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring mission (CO2M) will carry a near-infrared spectrometer to measure atmospheric carbon dioxide, but also methane, at a good spatial resolution. This mission will provide the EU with a unique and independent source of information to assess the effectiveness of policy measures, and to track their impact towards decarbonizing Europe and meeting national emission reduction targets.

Yasjka Meijer, ESA's Scientist for Copernicus Atmospheric Missions, commented, "The CO2M Mission will provide global coverage and has a special mode above water to increase observed radiances by looking toward the sunglint spot, however it will be equally limited by clouds."

Nord Stream leaked less methane than feared: atmospheric monitor

Provided by European Space Agency

Mozambique reeling from five years of violence | DW News Africa

In Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province more than 4,000 people have been killed and nearly one million were forced to flee their homes. While attacks on civilians continue, some areas are now under government control.

Germany: What poverty looks like in a rich country

Amid soaring inflation, particularly for food and energy, the gap between rich and poor in Germany is widening. Incremental increases to social safety nets will do little to alleviate the problem, experts warn.

The number of people sleeping rough and using food banks has been on the rise across the country

Although Germany is one of the richest countries in the world, signs of increasing poverty are becoming increasingly visible across the country. Homeless people sleeping rough, mothers forgoing meals in order to feed their children, pensioners looking for discarded bottles to trade for the deposit.

According to the Paritätische Wohlfahrtsverband, Germany's umbrella organization for welfare organizations, 13.8 million Germans either live in poverty or are at risk of slipping below the poverty line. The German government also voices its concerns about the growing gap between rich and poor.

The term poverty in this context does not mean that millions of people in Germany are at risk of starving or freezing to death. Instead, it refers to relative poverty, which is measured by the average living conditions of the society in question.

In 2021, Germany was ranked the 20th richest country in the world, measured by GDP per capita. This means that if you add up the value of all the goods and commodities produced in a country and divide the figure by the number of inhabitants, you get $50,700 (€52,200) per person per year in Germany on average. By comparison, that number is $136,700 in Luxembourg, the world's richest country, and $270 in the poorest, Burundi.

Poverty – a question of definition

In Europe, although relatively few people live in absolute poverty, millions are affected by poverty relative to the national average. This means they live with severe material restrictions, and can only make ends meet by restricting their lifestyles in a way that the majority of the population takes for granted.

In the EU, a person is considered to be at risk of poverty or poor if their income is less than 60% of the median in their respective country. If it is less than 50%, it is considered extreme poverty.

For Germany, this means that single people who make less than €1,148 in net income a month are considered below the poverty line. For single parents with one child, that figure is €1,492, and for a household of two parents and two children, €2,410.

Social safety net does little for economic uplift

Germany considers itself to have a robust social safety net. Anyone who cannot find a job, or is unable to work, receives basic social security — a system still known colloquially as Hartz IV. This money is meant to cover basic living expenses such as rent, heating, and water, and well as health insurance.

Under this system, individuals and single parents have only €449 a month for food, clothing, household goods, personal hygiene products, and bills such as the internet, telephone, and electricity. For each child, a parent or a couple receive between €285 and €376, depending on age.

Hartz IV and other public welfare programs have been repeatedly criticized in Germany for covering only the barest of necessities. In response to this, the federal government has proposed raising the standard rate to €503 per month, beginning in 2023, and changing the name to Bürgergeld, or "citizens' money."

However, according to social scientist and poverty researcher Christoph Butterwege, even that will be far from enough. Butterwege told DW that at least €650 is necessary for people to live "with dignity" and, for example, to eat healthy food for every meal.

Under the current system, only €5 per person per day is earmarked for food, leaving poorer households to either buy less food or food of lesser quality.

Pensioners struggling

As inflation skyrockets in Germany, more and more people will find themselves unable to make ends meet without assistance. It is becoming increasingly difficult for many to afford bread, milk, fruit, and vegetables, which are over 12% more expensive than they were a year ago. In 2020, around 1.1 million people made use of food banks. That number is now closer to 2 million.

Poverty is also on the rise amongst the elderly. Even after decades of work, a monthly pension is often not enough to cover all expenses. Women in particular are feeling the strain, as they are more likely to have worked part-time and been paid less. According to a new study from the Bertelsmann Foundation, old-age poverty is expected to affect 20% of Germans by 2036.

People with pension payments below a certain threshold are allowed to claim government assistance. However, many shy away from doing so out of a reluctance to be seen as needy. Studies show that two-thirds of those entitled to claim benefits are ashamed to do so. Older people often prefer to try to work longer, or collect cans and bottles with a refundable deposit from rubbish bins, in order to put a few more euros in their wallets.

The working poor

In Germany, the number of people who cannot live on their income despite having a full-time job is also rising — even with a recent increase in the minimum wage. At €12 per hour, a single person with no children who works 40 hours a week would receive a net income of around €1,480 per month. Although this is nominally above the poverty line, the excess has been eaten up by inflation.

Students are also greatly affected by the situation, especially recipients of federal funding. These students receive a maximum of €934 a month, which includes money for housing and health insurance. This amount puts students well below the poverty line.

The German government plans to spend €200 billion to cushion the impact of high energy prices. However, this will be far from enough to absorb all the additional costs, and economists believe that inflation will remain high. Life in Germany will remain expensive for the foreseeable future, and this will be felt above all by those who have no financial buffers and little savings.

SOUTH AFRICA

TRANSNET STRIKE SET TO BE A FURTHER BLOW FOR ECONOMY - COCT'S VOS

Transnet has been offering hikes of between 3% and 4%, while unions want a more inflation-related increase.

The Port of Cape Town. Picture: GCIS

Melikhaya Zagagana | 11 October 2022 07:48

CAPE TOWN - There are concerns that the failure to resolve the Transnet strike will have serious ramifications for the country.

Unions and Transnet met at the CCMA on Monday but there has been no breakthrough in the wage talks.

Transnet has been offering hikes of between 3% and 4%, while unions want a more inflation-related increase.

The City of Cape Town's mayoral committee member for economic growth, James Vos, said that Transnet had already lost an estimated R50 billion due to poor performance this year.

He said that any further disruption would lead to a crisis.

"The majority of imports and exports move into and out of South Africa via its ports. The current strike by Transnet workers is set to be a further blow for our fragile economy."

WHY ENGLISH AUDIENCES HAVE THE TOUGHEST TIME WITH SHAKESPEARE

Thanks to frequently updated translations that dispense with the archaic Renaissance language, foreign audiences often find the Bard easier to follow.

In this file photo taken on 23 April 2014, people prepare to write favorite quotes on a Shakespeare word canvas in Bryant Park in New York City. Picture: JOHN MOORE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP

AFP | 11 October 2022 10:46

PARIS - All the world's a stage but the irony is the rest of the globe often has an easier time understanding William Shakespeare than English speakers.

Thanks to frequently updated translations that dispense with the archaic Renaissance language, foreign audiences often find the Bard easier to follow.

Take King Lear, a new version of which opened at the Comedie Francaise in Paris last week.

In the original opening scene, the Earl of Kent reacts to being exiled by saying: "Sith thus thou wilt appear, Freedom lives hence, and banishment is here."

The new French version translates as, "Since this is how you want to appear, freedom is elsewhere and exile is here" - a much simpler sentence to modern ears.

Olivier Cadiot, who wrote the new translation, said his job was "like removing the varnish from a portrait to create something a bit more fresh - not something vulgar and modern, but to strip it back a little to render it more alive."

Mostly he aims for "fluidity and precision", he told AFP, but he could not resist the occasional moment of playfulness, such as translating the famous phrase "every inch a king" into the very current-sounding "total royale".

The danger is real in English, many would consider such toying with the Bard sacrilegious.

There were howls of protest when the Oregon Shakespeare Company set out to translate his works into contemporary English in 2015 ("The danger to Shakespeare is real," thundered one petition).

But that leaves many average theatre-goers unable to comprehend the world's most-performed playwright.

"English audiences are at a disadvantage because the language has evolved and is more and more distant. They need footnotes, props and staging to understand," said Alexa Alice Joubin, a Shakespeare scholar at George Washington University.

Indeed, a study by the British Council and YouGov in 2016 found that Shakespeare was considered more relevant in many non-English-speaking countries than back home.

Overall, 36% of British respondents said they did not understand Shakespeare compared to 25% elsewhere.

DYING ON THE VINE

This matters because the difficult language can obscure the important and relevant debates in his work on issues such as race, social hierarchies and the legitimacy of rulers, said Ruben Espinosa, a Bard expert at Arizona State University.

"There's a lot of cultural relevance," he said. "But the language is so complicated that a lot of the time that is lost on people.

"If we want to treat him as sacrosanct and leave him untouched, it's going to be a body of work that's dying on the vine."

Other countries don't have this problem.

In Germany and France, famous versions by Goethe and Victor Hugo's son, Francois-Victor, are still used, but modernised translations appear regularly.

The same is true in Japan, where early versions (such as a 19th century take on The Merchant of Venice entitled "Life is as Fragile as a Cherry Blossom in a World of Money") used archaic Japanese to mirror Shakespeare's style, but have been superceded many times since.

FEVERISH MIND

Some say too much is lost in modernisation.

The emotion is embedded in the musicality of the words, argued scholar James Shapiro in the New York Times. Macbeth's speeches, he said, were "intentionally difficult; Shakespeare was capturing a feverish mind at work".

But others argue Shakespeare's global popularity shows that the plays are just as powerful without the original words.

"There's something innate in the characterisation and the way the stories are told that is iconic and unique," said Joubin.

"Romeo and Juliet" is so popular, she said, not just for the language, but its fast pacing - rare for a tragedy.

Joubin believes Shakespeare himself would have approved of updated versions.

"Someone that creative - I very much doubt he would say you can't modernise my plays," she said. "He himself modernised the English language for the Renaissance era."

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