Wednesday, May 20, 2026

The Reasons for the US-Israeli Aggression against Iran

Wednesday 20 May 2026, by Sarah Selami



We publish here the transcript of the speech by Sarah Selami, an Iranian activist in Solidarité socialiste avec les travailleurs·euse d’Iran (Socialist Solidarity with the Workers of Iran (SSTI), in Rouen, France on 2 May 2026. In it, she explains the main reasons for the war unleashed on 28 February 28 by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

SSTI’s charter:
 Most of the different currents of opposition to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which express their opposition from different angles, emphasize its dictatorial character without sufficiently addressing its capitalist nature, while these two characteristics are inseparable.

 The capitalist regime of the Islamic Republic, which carries out the programs of international neoliberalism, has begun an all-out attack on the workers of Iran under such pretexts as “the reorganization of the economy,” or “increasing the productivity of labour,” and so on. The intensification of the exploitation of labour power, the reduction of wages, the closure of whole sections of production units are the direct consequences of these policies. This policy has provoked protests by workers, nurses, employees, teachers, and teachers. For several years, these protests and struggles in defence of their wages and living standards have been growing steadily. During these protests, workers and labourers are increasingly vocalizing their economic demands and their rights to create autonomous organizations.

 Despite these truths, the problems of Iran’s workers do not find sufficient resonance outside the country. Expressing their problems; supporting their struggles; above all, raising awareness among the public, workers’ organizations and unions and international workers’ institutions about these struggles; and seeking support for their struggles is the unavoidable duty of all socialists and activists for workers’ causes.

 In order to carry out these tasks well, we must bring together all the defenders of the workers’ movement and socialists of all tendencies who do not distinguish between the struggles for democracy and those for socialism. Fighting for unlimited freedom of expression, for freedom of opinion, for freedom of association, for the abolition of all kinds of discrimination against women, for the defence of the rights of the peoples of Iran to self-determination and so on are among our duties.

 We, who are part of the world anti-capitalist movement, are firmly convinced that dialogue and active collaboration can and must develop within the framework of this broad gathering that includes all existing socialist tendencies taking into account the current forms of anti-capitalist struggles. Thus, throughout the world, it is possible to gather the widest possible range in defence of the workers’ movement in Iran and to found a real surge of support for the struggle and protests of the workers and other working strata of Iran.


The ceasefire currently in place remains fragile and its outcome is uncertain. In addition, a maritime blockade of Iranian ports is being implemented by the United States. Already, the consequences of this war—one of the most decisive capitalist confrontations of the 21st century—are weighing heavily on the lives of peoples, especially workers, in Iran, Lebanon, the entire Gulf and far beyond. This is not simply a regional military confrontation, but a lasting shock whose social, economic and political effects will be felt for many years to come.

Balance sheet of the war

From the beginning of this war, which began with the bombing of a primary school in Minab and the massacre of more than a hundred children, many workplaces have been targeted militarily. Refineries, steel and petrochemical plants, power plants, oil facilities, roads, bridges, ports, airports, hospitals, scientific research centres, schools, universities, historical monuments and residential neighbourhoods were hit. Nearly 2,000 civilians were killed and several thousand others injured. In addition to the direct deaths caused by the bombings, the closure of many production sites has led to massive unemployment and a sharp drop in incomes for millions of working families.

With this war, the purchasing power of the majority of the population has taken a big additional blow. While the supply of essential goods is generally maintained, prices, already unbearable before the war, have soared. The massive Internet shutdown imposed by the Islamic Republic has also caused a violent shock to the digital economy where 11 million people worked, the majority of whom are now out of work. Even if the situation returns to a more stable situation, the reconstruction of the country could take between 10 and 15 years, while about 2 million people are likely to remain permanently unemployed.

On the political and social level, the war has strengthened the repressive apparatus. The ultra-repressive climate created by the war has allowed the government to suspend or stifle social protests. The crackdown on trade unionists, political prisoners and social activists has intensified drastically. Executions have become almost daily, dozens of people are arrested every day. The war and the decapitation of power did not cause the collapse of the regime; on the contrary, it has enabled it to reconstitute a new internal cohesion and to further tighten its control over society.

In Lebanon, too, Israeli strikes have completely destroyed the south, much of Beirut itself, as well as civilian infrastructure. More than 2,500 people have been killed and the economic collapse, which has been underway for several years, has been accentuated. There, too, thousands of workers have lost their jobs. Massive population displacements have further weakened the living conditions of working-class families. Migrant workers in Lebanon, without social protection, often without the possibility of displacement or return, have borne the brunt of the consequences of the war. As in Iran, throughout the region, the war has served as a pretext to strengthen security control, limit social mobilizations, and further weaken workers; collective organizing capacities.

However, the destructive effects of this war go far beyond Iran and Lebanon. The extension of Iranian military strikes to the southern Gulf countries has plunged thousands of workers into precariousness. In addition to the deaths in the bombings, many migrants – already deprived of social and economic rights – have lost their jobs and been abandoned. On a global scale, this war has deepened the energy crisis and accelerated inflation. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has produced significant paralysis. This is not only disrupting global oil and gas flows, but also trade in food and fertilizers. About a third of the world’s trade in agricultural commodities passes through Hormuz.

The World Food Programme has warned that if this situation continues, up to 45 million more people could be pushed into acute food insecurity. Nearly two-thirds of these people are in Africa and Asia, mainly in the poorest and most dependent countries. Countries such as Niger, Chad, Mali, Sudan, Somalia or Ethiopia. In Nigeria, for example, the price of fuel has risen by more than sixty percent, transport costs have almost doubled, which has directly caused food prices to rise. The United Nations Development Programme estimates that the war and the paralysis of the passage through Hormuz could plunge more than 30 million people back into extreme poverty.

The rise in energy prices is transmitted directly to the entire global economy. In countries such as India, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, people are already suffering from rising fuel prices, rising food prices, soaring transport costs and currency devaluation. In short, the consequences of this war are profoundly impoverishing the working class on a global scale.

Origins of the conflict between Israel and Iran

If we want to understand the origins of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, we must first avoid a fairly frequent confusion. Certainly, the massive destruction of civilian infrastructure in Iran is reminiscent of what we see in Lebanon, and even more so in Gaza. We find the same extreme violence, large-scale bombings, the destruction of industrial, medical, energy, logistical and housing infrastructures. But despite these similarities in the forms of destruction and slaughter of civilians, Israel’s war against Iran does not have the same political nature as its war against its neighbours.

The difference is not only in the role of the United States, although this role is central. In Lebanon and Palestine, the United States does not intervene directly militarily. They arm, finance and protect Israel, and let it act according to its own goals and desires. In the Iranian case, on the other hand, the American involvement is direct. It is the United States that sets the overall framework for the conflict, its priorities, its limits and its timetable, while Israel acts largely as a strategic partner and relay. I will come back to this American dimension of the conflict later.

The essential difference is above all of a political and historical nature. Israel’s wars in Palestine — and particularly in Gaza — are part of a long-term colonial and territorial logic. It is a settler-colonialism: land conquest, occupation, extension of borders, demographic transformation and ethnic cleansing up to and including genocide. In Lebanon, it is the territorial-security logic that operates, especially in the border areas. In the case of Iran, it is neither a colonial war nor a territorial occupation project. Iran and Israel do not share a common border and they do not dispute territory. It is a rivalry between competing regional powers. Each seeks to prevent the other from imposing its hegemony in the Middle East. The domination of one is necessarily to the detriment of the other. The logic of the conflict therefore concerns the place of each in the regional order, the ability to define the rules of the political, security and strategic game of the region.

Israel’s main objective vis-à-vis Iran is therefore the lasting weakening — or even the destruction — of the capabilities of a strategic rival. This requires the massive destruction of the country’s infrastructure: not only military capabilities, but also industrial, technological, scientific, logistical, and even medical, educational and residential infrastructure. It is a question of reducing the structural power of the opponent. Iran, for its part, also uses, within the limits of its own military capabilities, a logic of striking against not only military but above all civilian infrastructure. Here too, the objective is to wear down the opponent’s capacity. In other words, the Israeli war against Iran is aimed at neutralizing a regional power capable of influencing a Middle Eastern order dominated by the US-Israeli axis. It is this place claimed by Iran in the regional order that constitutes the real basis of the confrontation.

It must also be seen that the rivalry between Iran and Israel cannot be reduced to a succession of one-off military crises. It must be understood as a multidimensional structural rivalry. We can add that it is rooted in the geopolitical transformations of the post-Cold War era, in the collapse of the bipolar order and in the recompositions that followed in the Middle East, but that is another debate. It should be remembered that in the 1980s, during the war between Iran and Iraq, Iran and Israel collaborated. Israel was then selling arms to the Islamic Republic. The destruction of the Osirak – Iraq’s nuclear power plant – is said to have been the result of their collaboration in terms of military intelligence.

Since its creation, Israel has based its security on two pillars: permanent military superiority and strategic alliance with Western powers, especially the United States. Its “existential reason” depends on a regional environment where no rival can achieve a comparable level of power. Conversely, the Islamic Republic of Iran has gradually developed a policy aimed at building strategic depth in its regional environment. This involves a network of alliances, influences, and political relays in several countries in the region – the so-called “axis of resistance.”

Even without permanent direct confrontation, there is an enduring rivalry in which each side seeks to prevent the other from becoming the dominant power in the region. But this rivalry is not limited to the military or security dimension. It also has a deep economic and geopolitical dimension, often less visible but just as essential. One of the most important areas is the control of energy and trade routes. Thanks to its position in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran occupies a central place in global energy security. A decisive part of the world’s oil and gas passes through this space. This gives Iran considerable geopolitical leverage, as evidenced by its closure since the outbreak of the war.

Israel, for its part, has strengthened its position, thanks to the development of its gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, to become a leading regional energy player through new energy circuits between the Mediterranean, Europe and Arab countries. Two distinct but interdependent geopolitical spaces are thus drawn: on the one hand, the Persian Gulf and the oil routes linked to Iranian influence; on the other, the Eastern Mediterranean and the new energy axes associated with Israel. Energy here becomes an instrument of structural power.

The same logic exists for trade corridors. In recent years, projects to connect India, the Middle East and Europe have gained major geopolitical importance. These routes are not just economic: they are part of the competition to become the main hubs of world trade. Iran seeks to preserve its role as a strategic bridge between Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, the Caucasus and West Asia. Another example is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which links India, Iran, Russia, and, more broadly, Northern Europe. In this system, Iran plays the role of a real land bridge between the Indian Ocean and the Caspian Sea, then to Russia and Europe.

Israel, on the other hand, is seeking to integrate into new transit networks through its cooperation with several Arab and Western countries (such as regional supply chains linking the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf, with projects for port cooperation, maritime transport and digital connectivity (Abraham Accords)). Or the IMEC corridor which would link India to the Gulf ports, then, via Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to Israeli ports such as Haifa, before reaching Europe via the Mediterranean. The competition for the trade card thus becomes a competition for regional power.

In addition, there is a fundamental difference: how they are integrated into the world economy. Israel is deeply integrated into the Western economy and the international financial system. It benefits fully from capital flows, technology transfers, innovation and global trade. Iran, on the other hand, is mainly operating under a sanctions regime. It is moving more towards non-Western economies (Global South), towards parallel trade circuits, alternative networks for circumventing sanctions, which is in itself a real business. The conflict is therefore not only about missiles, security or military influence. It also concerns the place of each in the global economic order.

Origins of the U.S.-Iran Conflict

When we talk about the US-Iran conflict, we must first remember that Iran — more precisely the Islamic Republic of Iran — is a regional power capable of exerting influence far beyond its immediate space, but its main objective is not only to exist as an autonomous power. It seeks to obtain a dominant, recognized and stable position in the regional power structure, on its own terms. In other words, the Iranian state—as the representative of Iranian capitalism—does not perceive itself as a mere peripheral power. The Iranian bourgeoisie has always been convinced that because of its territorial size, its demography, its geographical position, its natural resources, its industrial capacities and its long tradition of statehood, it is naturally up to Iran to occupy a central place in the regional order.

This perception does not date back to the Islamic Republic. It already existed during the reign of Shah, when Iran had the “honorific” title of gendarme of the region. The Islamic Republic did not invent this ambition; it has reformulated it in a transformed international context. It is therefore a question of a logic of hegemonic integration. Iran does not necessarily seek to overthrow the existing order, but to be recognized as a structuring power, without subordination, to obtain the lion’s share.

However, normalized access to this position remains largely closed to it. Because its rise to power directly affects several pillars of the existing regional order: the American security architecture in the Middle East, the monarchies allied with the United States, and above all, the centrality of Israel. This country benefits from a form of structural exception: guaranteed military superiority, permanent American and European protection, privileged integration into the Western order, as well as broad international tolerance for practices of colonial domination and crimes committed against the peoples of the region.

Faced with this lockdown, Iran is therefore looking for other ways to access this strategic recognition. Where the Shah’s Iran sought its ascent through a classic integration into the Western camp — according to a model that could recall that of South Korea — the Islamic Republic is moving more towards a logic comparable to that of India or South Africa during the apartheid era: nuclear power as an instrument of strategic recognition. In other words, nuclear capability becomes a means of imposing its place in an international environment that refuses to grant it normally. Added to this is the construction of regional strategic depth through its alliances, often referred to as the “axis of resistance”, as well as the development of the ballistic programme, intended to guarantee this desire for power militarily. It is therefore not only a question of defence, but of a global strategy of asserting power.

At the same time, the crisis of American hegemony has produced another important effect everywhere: the rise of other regional powers. In the Middle East, the assertiveness of Turkey and Saudi Arabia has multiplied the centres of rivalry and made the competition for regional hegemony more complex. Iran is therefore not facing a single adversary, but a regional system where several powers simultaneously seek to impose their centrality. In this context, the confrontation with the United States as the guarantor of the system that denies the Islamic Republic of Iran its claimed place becomes both lasting and almost inevitable.

It is an asymmetrical confrontation between a world power and a regional power. But its effects go far beyond the Middle East. The Iranian issue directly affects the credibility of American alliances, but also the relations between the United States, China and Russia. The American war against Iran is therefore never simply regional. It affects the overall balance of power. This global dimension is less visible in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, where Israel is fighting above all an immediate strategic rival, a direct regional competitor. For the United States, however, Iran represents something else: the possibility that a regional state will seek to integrate into the world order in its own way, by force. And this is precisely what the problem is.

If the Israeli objective is primarily the weakening — or even the destruction — of Iranian power, the American objective is a little different. It is less a question of totally destroying Iran’s power than of keeping it in a contained position, as far as possible: a power that is perhaps a little influential, but above all not structuring, not capable of redefining regional balances on its own terms. In both cases — Israeli and American — however, it is indeed a question of neutralizing a power capability.

The means employed by the Americans, like those used by the Israelis, are not limited to direct military pressure. They also include the destruction or weakening of all of Iran’s capabilities, as well as permanent economic warfare through structural sanctions. Sanctions, here, are not simply tools of punishment. They serve to prevent a state from transforming its potential power into real power. This is why the US-Iran conflict cannot be understood solely as a crisis, for example around the nuclear issue. It is a much deeper confrontation: a conflict over regional hierarchy, access to power, and the possibility for a regional power like Iran to become a structuring player in the international order without American authorization.

The Chinese factor

Moreover, when we look at the Chinese question in the context of the conflict over Iran, we must first start from a simple observation: with the rise of China and the possible return of Russia to the world stage, Iran is no longer just a regional problem. It is gradually becoming a potential player in a broader rebalancing of the international system. From China’s point of view, Iran is an important geo-economic partner. This can be seen first of all in terms of energy. China is heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Gulf, especially Iranian oil. So Iran is a key player in China’s energy security. China has a direct interest in avoiding, either the collapse of the Iranian state – whatever it may be, provided it remains a partner – or total American domination of this space.

Then there is the Eurasian dimension. Iran occupies a central geographical position between several major areas: the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Indian Ocean and the major Eurasian land corridors. In the logic of the New Silk Roads, this position is essential. Without stability in Iran, a significant portion of these connections becomes fragile or uncertain. Finally, there is a more global political and strategic dimension. China does not necessarily seek to “defend” the Islamic Republic as such, but it refuses to allow regime change imposed from outside, especially by the United States, to become an international norm. For her, this would amount to strengthening the legitimacy of American interventionism in the world.

There is also an important paradox. A protracted war with Iran may, in some cases, indirectly weaken the U.S. position vis-à-vis China. Indeed, such a conflict consumes significant military resources, depletes stocks, diverts American attention to the Middle East and reduces the ability to concentrate on the Indo-Pacific scene, particularly in the face of the Taiwan issue. In this logic, striking or containing Iran can produce contradictory effects: it can weaken a regional rival, but also, indirectly, strengthen China’s strategic position. Basically, the management of the Iranian question goes far beyond the Middle East. It directly influences the balance between the United States and China itself.

Conclusions

In the end, the war against Iran cannot be understood as a mere one-off military confrontation, or even as a strictly regional crisis. It is part of a much broader set of structural rivalries that concern both the definition of the regional order in the Middle East and, beyond that, the evolution of the contemporary world order. The Israeli-Iranian conflict is first and foremost a struggle for regional hegemony. It is a clash between two powers that each seeks to prevent the other from becoming the organizing centre of the Middle East. In this logic, the destruction of civilian, industrial or scientific infrastructure is not simply aimed at an immediate military objective: it is part of a broader strategy of sustainable neutralization of a rival’s power capabilities.

At the same time, the US-Iran conflict goes even further beyond this regional dimension. It pits a world power that seeks to maintain a hierarchical international order against a regional power that tries to access it on its own terms. The Iranian question thus becomes a point where several dynamics converge: the crisis of American hegemony, the rise of new regional powers such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia, and the gradual emergence of a multipolar world marked by the growing role of China and the possible return of Russia to the game. In this configuration, the economy is not a separate domain from war. On the contrary, energy roads, trade corridors, sanctions, access to capital and technology become direct instruments of power. The struggle for Iran’s place in the regional order is therefore also a struggle for its position in the world economy.

But let’s get to the point: beyond the rivalries between states, it is above all the working class and the labouring classes that bear the main cost of these conflicts. In Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf countries, but also in Africa, Asia and far beyond, war means destruction, unemployment, inflation, shortage, repression and increased precariousness. Workers are the first victims: they lose their jobs, suffer from rising prices, are exposed to the direct violence of conflicts, and see their capacity for collective organization further reduced in a context of militarization and political control and reinforced repression.

This war thus highlights a constant reality of contemporary capitalism: clashes between powers are never just abstract geopolitical games. They always result in an intensification of social exploitation and misery for the working population. Behind the discourses of security, sovereignty or stability, it is in reality imperialist power relations that are redrawing the region at the cost of massive and lasting destruction. Understanding this war therefore implies placing it in the deep logic of competition for power, for hegemony and for the control of resources, while keeping at the centre a fundamental reality: it is the peoples, and first and foremost the workers, who pay the price.

Finally, it is important to remember that the Islamic Republic of Iran — and more broadly the Iranian capitalism it administers — is not a simple passive victim of this warlike configuration. It is a fully-fledged player, committed to its own logic of power, internal consolidation and regional influence. Its confrontation with Israel and the United States cannot therefore be reduced to mere “resistance” in the moral or political sense of the term. It is not only a reaction to an external injustice, to an imposed war, but also a state policy carried out by a ruling class that represses its own population, instrumentalizes external conflicts to strengthen its external position and internal control, and also seeks to impose its place in the regional and global hierarchy.

2 May 2026

Translated by International Viewpoint from Marx21.ch.

 

The Man Who Seeks To Rule the World

by | May 18, 2026 

Although Donald Trump has never been modest about his abilities or reluctant to exercise personal power, during his second term in office he has shown clear signs of megalomania.

One sign, of course, is his blatant demand for the territory of other nations.   Since January 2025 alone, he has suggested annexing or seizing control of Greenland, Canada, Mexico, the Panama Canal, Gaza, Venezuela, and Cuba.  In addition, he has proclaimed the “Donroe Doctrine,” declaring that “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.”

Although the NATO alliance, a collective security pact, has been the cornerstone of U.S. defense policy for the past 77 years, Trump has become a bitter critic of NATO to such a degree that its other members, aghast at this turn of events, have begun exploring the reshaping of the Western alliance without the participation of the United States.

Other actions, too, have underscored Trump’s decision to “go it alone” in world affairs.  Like the foremost military conquerors of the past, Trump has been busy building up his nation’s armed forces and their weaponry.  The United States is already the world’s biggest military spender, with about three times the military spending of the number two nation (China).  Nevertheless, this April Trump proposed adoption of a record $1.5 trillion U.S. military budget, with the largest annual increase ever in Pentagon funding:  42 percent.  This dramatic increase does not include an expected supplemental budget for the Iran war, which could cost an additional $200 billion.

Trump’s 2027 fiscal year military budget calls for $98 billion in nuclear weapons spending, most of it to build a new generation of U.S. nuclear weapons.  Having unilaterally withdrawn the United States from previous nuclear arms control and disarmament treaties with Russia and recently let the last of them lapse, he now has fewer treaty constraints on his nuclear ambitions.  Accordingly, he recently announced that he has given orders for the resumption of U.S. nuclear testing, which has not been conducted since 1992.  Furthermore, like past U.S. presidents, Trump has assumed the power to launch a nuclear war totally on his own.  And he has publicly and repeatedly threatened to do so.

Although the U.S. Constitution gives Congress – and not the President – the authority to declare war, Trump has shown no hesitation at sending U.S. armed forces into combat.  In a little more than a year, without so much as consulting Congress, he ordered the obliteration bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, the destruction of dozens of suspect boats and their crews, the bombing of Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president, a naval blockade of Cuba, and – jointly with Israel – a devasting war upon Iran.  The latter, which has already killed thousands and wounded tens of thousands of people, displaced 3.2 million Iranians, and thrown the global economy into turmoil, is widely unpopular and continues today.  Queried in January 2026 about such international actions, Trump brushed aside international law and said that he relied solely on his own opinion, which was “the only thing that can stop me.” 

Not surprisingly, Trump has no use for the United Nations and most other international organizations, and has worked zealously to cripple them.  Since his second term began, he has had the U.S. government withdraw from such key UN agencies as the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council, the UN Relief and Works Agency, and UNESCO.  In addition, the Trump administration has imposed severe sanctions on the International Criminal Court and its top officials.

U.S. funding cuts for the United Nations have been severe.  In July 2025, the Trump administration pushed rescissions legislation through the Republican-controlled Congress that pulled back $1 billion in funding previously allocated to the world organization, with devastating effects on a broad variety of programs, including UNICEF, the UN Environment Program, and the UN Fund for Victims of Torture.  Furthermore, the administration refused to make its mandated dues payments to the United Nations, running up a debt to it – by far the world’s largest – of nearly $4 billion.  As a result, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in February 2026 that the world body faced “imminent financial collapse.”

On September 23, 2025, Trump’s hostility toward the United Nations spilled over into what Le Monde called “a blistering speech” during his first UN General Assembly appearance since his re-election.  In what the French newspaper termed a “full-frontal attack on the global organization,” Trump condemned it for “empty words,” failing to assist him in the seven wars that he claimed to have ended, and for “funding an assault” by refugees on Western nations.  He also depicted climate change as “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.”

Although it’s tempting to regard this behavior as reflecting an overheated nationalism, the remarkable degree to which Trump regards himself as the savior of the world suggests a more personal lust for supreme power.

The Trump-centered vision of the world is exemplified by his creation, soon thereafter, of an international “Board of Peace.”  Although the Board’s initial activity was a peace project for Gaza, its charter called for “a more nimble and effective international peace-building body,” which – together with Trump’s remarks – has led disgruntled European officials to describe it as a substitute for the United Nations.  Trump, who appointed himself lifetime chair of the Board of Peace, would decide which nations could join the Board (with those paying $1 billion or more becoming permanent Board members) and which members could join the Executive Board (which would implement the decisions of the Board of Peace).  The power to veto decisions of the Executive Board was granted by Trump . . . to Trump!

This descent into megalomania is deeply disturbing, for the dangers to the world, and even to human survival, are sharply enhanced by one-man rule, and even by one-nation rule.

How long will it take to recognize that international security requires the sharing of power by all people and nations in the human community? 

Lawrence S. Wittner (https://www.lawrenceswittner.com/ ) is Professor of History Emeritus at SUNY/Albany and the author of Confronting the Bomb (Stanford University Press).


US/Iran Energy Shock Damage Is Spreading in Asia

The US/Iran-linked energy crisis has shifted from a commodity shock to structural geopolitics, with Asia at the epicenter due to its dependence on imported oil and LNG. Global reverberations can no longer be avoided.


by | May 19, 2026

In the Asian shock, four transmission channels play a role. In the case of oil, elevated risk premium is coupled with physical tightening via Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Lliquefied natural gas (LNG) poses a more severe constraint than oil and thus structural tightening of Asian gas balances. Meanwhile, coal substitution is experiencing a short-term demand surge in Asia, especially in India, China and Southeast Asia.

On the economic side, countries are struggling with imported inflation, foreign exchange pressure, and painful policy trade-offs between subsidy support and fiscal stability.

The shock is no longer a temporary price spike but a sustained supply reordering. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects large-scale oil drawdowns. LNG disruptions are removing 20% of global LNG flows at peak disruption, which will tighten Asian supply chains significantly.

What happens in Asia won’t stay in Asia. In the coming months, the adverse reverberations will be felt across the world.

Asian Century and global growth at stake    

Asia remains the engine of global economic growth, with China and India alone contributing roughly 40–45% of incremental global GDP growth, while other major Asian economies – Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam, and ASEAN collectively – add another 10–12%.

In the medium term, Asia’s share of global growth is expected to rise further as Western economies slow, driven by demographic momentum, urbanization, and productivity gains in services and manufacturing.

However, a severe energy crisis, particularly if it triggers sustained LNG and oil shortages, would sharply compress industrial output, inflation-adjusted consumption, and investment in these economies, potentially reducing global growth by 1–2 percentage points in 2026–27.

An Asian slowdown would have significant spillovers to the US, Europe, and Japan through trade, investment, and financial channels. Reduced Asian demand would depress exports of machinery, electronics, and consumer goods from these regions. Higher energy prices would further weigh on consumption and industrial costs. Financial markets could face increased volatility, amplifying capital flow disruptions.

In Japan, the combination of energy dependence and weaker regional demand could sharply constrain growth, while Europe and the US would experience slower industrial output and dampened inflation-adjusted consumption, reinforcing the global drag from the Asian energy shock.

Oil tightness, LNG constraint, brief coal rebound

Oil remains volatile but more flexible than gas. Prices surged above $100/bbl during peak disruption and remain elevated ($90–100 volatility band in stress conditions)

Strait of Hormuz instability has removed millions of barrels/day of export capacity. OPEC+ spare capacity is partially offsetting but insufficient to normalize inventories. Inventories are falling at record pace, reducing the buffer against further shocks.

Unlike earlier cyclical oil shocks, this episode is characterized by structural inventory depletion, making price spikes more persistent even if supply partially recovers.

Nonetheless, natural gas is the primary stress point for Asia. Up to 20% of global LNG supply was disrupted at peak due to Hormuz-linked flows. Asian LNG prices surged above $20/MMBtu in multiple spot windows.

Northeast Asian importers (Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan) entered emergency procurement and rationing. Long-term contracts are under stress due to force majeure risks and shipping rerouting constraints.

Asian LNG imports have dropped sharply. Qatar/UAE-linked exports remain vulnerable due to chokepoint exposure. LNG is increasingly perceived in Asia as less reliable as a transition fuel, accelerating diversification away from gas-heavy strategies in parts of the region.

Then there is the curious rebound of coal, temporarily distorting markets. Asia’s immediate adjustment has been substitution, not demand destruction. China, India, Indonesia and other countries have increased coal burn in power generation. In several ASEAN economies, this is increasingly seen as short-cycle substitution, not structural reversal.

Renewables deployment acceleration continues in parallel (especially China, India). 

How are countries coping

China is managing a dual challenge: LNG exposure plus industrial cost pressure. Hence, the simultaneous deployment of coal and renewables. Strategic LNG diversification has increased from the Middle East to Russia, US and Australia. Energy security is now embedded into industrial policy response.

India is highly exposed to imported LNG and oil inflation. Strong coal buffer limits crisis severity but increases environmental cost, which is already soaring with the nation’s broad takeoff. Unsurprisingly, fiscal pressure is rising from fuel subsidies. The net effect is manageable but inflationary growth drag.

Japan and South Korea are structurally most exposed to LNG disruption. So, emergency procurement and demand management measures have been activated, with the acceleration of nuclear restarts and efficiency gains. Now energy security dominates macro policy debate.

Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines) is highly price-sensitive to LNG demand. Consequently, LNG project cancellations and delays have a painful impact, which is rapidly translating to political volatility. Hence, the efforts to re-optimize coal in Indonesia and Vietnam.

Longer-term shift prevails toward renewables and regional grid integration. But as energy reserves are diminishing, the focus is on the short-term. To paraphrase Keynes: in the long-run, we’re all dead. 

From economic transmission to energy shift

The energy shock is feeding directly into consumer price index (CPI) via fuel, logistics, and fertilizers. Hence, the secondary pass-through into food prices, notably in South Asia.

Foreign exchange is under severe pressure as import-dependent Asian economies are facing severe currency depreciation pressure. Before the crisis, US dollar was less than 58 Philippine peso; now, close to 62. Meanwhile, central banks are forced into tighter-than-expected monetary policy stance.

Industrial slowdown risk is increasing. Energy-intensive manufacturing margins are compressed. Fertilizer, petrochemicals, and steel sectors are most exposed.

The crisis is accelerating three structural shifts. The first entails the move from LNG expansion to LNG risk hedging.

Second, the past objective to move away from fossil transition has been superseded by energy security primacy.

Third, electrification has accelerated. Renewables and storage investment are front-loaded. Future is not next year. It’s now.

Trump–Xi summit: hope for stability 

Prior to the summit, analysts hoped that the US-China talks could serve as a stabilizing variable for global energy markets, in three ways.

Strategic signaling fosters oil price stabilization, just as US–China coordination reduces demand-side geopolitical uncertainty. The potential easing of tariff and geoeconomic tensions could support global demand expectations.

Second, LNG trade realignment suggests that China may diversify LNG imports further from politically sensitive corridors. US LNG exports could benefit from strategic trade normalization, while Europe–Asia LNG competition could moderate if US-China trade improves.

Third, there is the political minefield of sanctions and Iran-related diplomacy: Even limited coordination could reduce escalation probability in the Middle East, which is vital to avoid extreme oil price spikes.

From the standpoint of the energy markets, the summit was less about immediate supply restoration and more about reducing geopolitical volatility embedded in energy pricing. But the success of the summit will be determined by the markets only in its aftermath.

Unsettling scenarios for 2026–27 

Base scenario: Partial stabilization of the Middle East conflict proceeds without full resolution. Hormuz remains intermittently disrupted but not fully closed. LNG supply is partially restored but tight. Oil inventories rebuild slowly but remain below norm. Brent crude varies around $85–105/bbl and LNG Asia spot at $12–20/MMBtu. Inflation stays elevated but manageable. Asia faces growth drag but no recession.

Optimistic scenario: Diplomatic stabilization is supported by US–China coordination following the summit. Shipping lines are gradually reopened. LNG infrastructure is partially restored. OPEC+ increases output into recovering demand. Brent crude falls to $65–85/bbl and LNG to $8–14/MMBtu. Inflation falls sharply in Asia. Policy easing resumes globally and energy transition investments accelerate again.

Pessimistic scenario: Renewed military escalation takes off in the Iran–Gulf theater. Hormuz’s closure is sustained or repeated. LNG infrastructure damage spills over in Qatar/Gulf. Severe inventory depletion triggers panic buying. Brent crude soars to $110–140+/bbl and LNG climbs to $20–35/MMBtu. Severe imported inflation shock spreads, with industrial slowdown and rationing risk in parts of Northeast Asia. Renewables and coal substitution surge simultaneously. With financial volatility, emerging market currencies fall and capital flight resumes.

The 2026–27 outlook is at best clouded in uncertainty. The concern is that it will morph into high plateau volatility.

The original version was published by China-US Focus (US/Hong Kong) on May 15, 2026.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized visionary of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net 

 

Senators Propose To Head Off ‘Automatic’ Draft Registration by Repealing Selective Service


by | May 20, 2026

On May 14th, Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)  reintroduced the Selective Service Repeal Act, S. 4537).

This bill already has the endorsement of dozens of peace and antiwar groups, draft resisters, religious organizations, antiwar feminists, and civil libertarians.

This bipartisan bill to abolish the Selective Service System (SSS) and end preparations for a military draft has been proposed in each session of Congress since 2019, but has yet to get a hearing or a floor vote in either the House or Senate.

The timing of this bill is more critical than ever: Unless Congress takes action before December 18, 2026, the SSS will start collecting data from other Federal agencies to try to register potential draftees “automatically”. The White House is currently reviewing regulations to implement that change in the draft law, which was buried in the annual defense (sic) bill enacted in December 2025.

The garbage-in, garbage-out process of automated and involuntary registration won’t produce a list that’s complete, accurate, or fit for the purpose of reliably and provably delivering induction orders. But it will allow war planners to continue to pretend that a draft is available as a fallback, so they don’t have to consider whether enough Americans will fight the wars they are planning, even if they prove bloodier than expected. And it will produce a list that’s vulnerable to misuse and weaponization.

“If a war is worth fighting, Congress will vote to declare it and people will volunteer”, Sen. Paul said in in reintroducing the Selective Service Repeal Act. According to Sen. Wyden, “The Selective Service is an outdated program that costs millions of taxpayer dollars to prepare for a military draft that Americans don’t want or need. There is no need to replicate the same draft that sent two million unwilling young men to war 50 years ago.”

The attempt at “automatic” draft registration will inevitably be a fiasco. The only way to head it off is to end draft registration entirely. That won’t happen unless Congress feels public pressure — soon.

In the past, the  Selective Service Repeal Act has received significant bipartisan support in the House, but as of now it’s been reintroduced only in the Senate in the current Congress. Opponents of the draft should push their Representatives to sponsor a House version as soon as possible.

The Selective Service Repeal Act is unlikely to be enacted as a standalone bill, especially in the current Congress. It probably stands a chance of approval only if it is included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2027. So it’s critical to find members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees who will introduce the Selective Service Repeal Act as an amendment to the NDAA, while the NDAA is still in committee.

Draft registration failed, but the hapless Selective Service System and its network of undertrained and unready draft boards have lingered, zombie-like, for decades. “Automatic” registration won’t work and will cause new problems. Tell Congress it’s time to end draft registration entirely and stop pretending that Americans would accept or comply with any sort of military draft.

Edward Hasbrouck maintains the Resisters.info website and publishes the “Resistance News” newsletter. He was imprisoned in 1983-1984 for organizing resistance to draft registration.