Adam Morton
Guardian Australia
Wed, 4 October 2023
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
“Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas” is not standard scientific language, but these are not standard times, scientifically.
New data shows average global temperatures in September were not just the hottest ever recorded, but 0.5C above the previous record for the month. They were about 1.8C above temperatures in pre-industrial times, before humans started pumping vast amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The scientist and writer Zeke Hausfather is not prone to hyperbole but was quick to put this into context on social media, saying it was – in his “professional opinion as a climate scientist” – bananas. “It’s hard to overstate just how exceptionally high global temperatures are at the moment,” he said on Bluesky.
Related: ‘Gobsmackingly bananas’: scientists stunned by planet’s record September heat
We’re seeing this in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that mean temperatures across day and night were even warmer when compared to what we’re used to: 2.43C above the long-term average Australians experienced between 1961 and 1990.
Maximum temperatures – the ones we really need to worry about as we head into summer, when we know heatwaves kill more people than bushfires or other extreme weather events – were 3.38C higher than the long-term average.
The hottest times of the day were particularly ridiculous in southern parts of the continent. In New South Wales, maximum temperatures across September were 5.07C warmer than what we would have expected late last century. Other states were not far behind.
While some set new records, it was not the hottest September ever across the continent – that prize is still held by 2013. But with forest undergrowth lush after three drenched La Niña years, there is plenty to worry about as temperatures rise in the weeks and months ahead.
Bushfires are already burning in three states, including more than 70 in NSW. One of those has destroyed homes on the NSW south coast. We’re not even halfway through spring.
The why of this has been well covered. The simple version is we’re in an El Niño event, which generally makes things hotter. It exacerbates the clear underlying trend of global heating caused by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
I suspect many people may be less across the reasons that we should be optimistic – however cautiously – that humans can get their act together and at least limit the damage from the climate crisis.
Related: The push for nuclear energy in Australia is driven by delay and denial, not evidence | Adam Morton
A report last week by the International Energy Agency – a Paris-based body that was once known for underplaying the rise of renewable energy – makes a case that a change is happening, at least for some technology.
It’s worth a closer look, not least because fossil fuel backers often claim the IEA says the world needs more of what they’re selling. This report – an updated roadmap for how we could keep the global goal of limiting heating to 1.5C within reach – clearly does not say this.
As Carbon Brief has pointed out, it makes three main points. The first is that some important clean energy tech – solar energy, electric cars and battery production – is now being rolled out at a record pace, in line with what is needed to reach global net zero emissions by 2050. Under the IEA’s pathway to zero, solar and EVs could provide one-third of the global emissions cuts needed by 2030.
This tells us that rapid change is possible. In the case of solar, it suggests that it can leapfrog fossil fuels as a primary energy source in the developing world, if influential countries tailor their support in that direction.
The second point is that, more than ever, we have the technology. Two years ago the IEA estimated that the clean technology needed to provide nearly half the emissions reductions across the planet by 2050 was not yet available. That gap has now dropped to 35% as new technology – batteries and electrolysers, for example – has come on. It is likely to continue to fall.
It means the main goal now must be rapid acceleration before 2030. That’s easier said than done, but it’s possible using proven and in most cases affordable strategies. The agency says global renewable energy capacity needs to triple, the pace of energy efficiency improvements needs to double, EVs and heat pump sales need to rise sharply, and methane emissions from fossil fuels – including leaks from coal and gas mines – need to be cut by 75% in that timeframe.
For the clean tech to have the impact that’s required, the approval and development of new fossil fuels needs to stop. This is the third point. It’s consistent with what IEA chief, Fatih Birol, said when the first roadmap was released two years ago.
Related: ‘Staggering’ green growth gives hope for 1.5C, says global energy chief
The IEA now says a concerted expansion of renewable energy could cut global demand for fossil fuels by 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. As a result, the world does not need new or extended coalmines, or coal plants that do not capture and store their emissions (and no power stations are meaningfully doing this).
Crucially, in an Australian context, it also says there is no justification for approving new oil and gas developments. It argues that continued investment in some oil and gas projects that either already exist or have been approved is not inconsistent with the global net zero goal, but that the transition to clean energy must be carefully sequenced to ensure there is enough energy to avoid price spikes, but not so much that there is a glut of supply.
If properly handled, the IEA expects this would translate to a significant decline in the global gas supply – a 20% drop by 2030 and a nearly 50% cut by 2035.
The implications of this are pretty clear, if not politically popular.
New fossil fuel developments should not be approved without factoring in global climate goals. And governments will need to take a more interventionist role and make science-based calls about which energy projects should go ahead.
Given the evidence, anything less might be described as bananas.
Adam Morton is Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor
'A death sentence': September was world's hottest on record by an 'extraordinary' margin
Euronews
Wed, 4 October 2023
After a summer of record-breaking heat, the abnormally hot weather continued into September setting a new mark for the level above a normal temperature for the time of year, the European Union's climate change agency reported today.
Last month’s average global temperature was 0.93°C above the 1991-2020 average for September. This is the warmest margin above average for a month in 83 years of records kept by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“It’s just mind-blowing really,” said Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo. “Never seen anything like that in any month in our records.”
A woman uses a fan in the courtyard of the Louvre museum, Sept. 7, 2023, in Paris. - Thomas Padilla/Copyright 2023 The AP. All rights reserved.
While July and August had higher temperatures because they are warmer months on the calendar, September had what scientists call the biggest anomaly, or departure from normal. Temperature anomalies are crucial pieces of data in a warming world.
“This is not a fancy weather statistic,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto said in an email. “It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems. It destroys assets, infrastructure, harvest.”
Copernicus calculated the average temperature for September was 16.38°C, which broke the old record set in September 2020 by a whopping half-degree Celsius. This is a huge margin in climate records.
The hot temperatures stretched across the globe. They were chiefly driven by persistent and unusual warmth in the world’s oceans, which didn’t cool off as much in September as normal and have been record-breakingly hot since spring, said Buontempo.
‘Triple whammy’ of extreme heat could make Earth uninhabitable for humans, climate models reveal
October heatwave expected in parts of Europe after countries record hottest ever September
Earth is on track for its hottest year on record, about 1.4°C warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Samantha Burgess, Copernicus’ deputy director.
This past September was 1.75°C warmer than the mid-1800s, Copernicus reported. The world agreed in 2015 to try to limit future warming to 1.5°C warming since pre-industrial times.
The global threshold goal of 1.5°C is for long-term temperature averages, not a single month or year. However, scientists still expressed grave concern at the records being set.
“What we’re seeing right now is the backdrop of rapid global warming at a pace that the Earth has not seen in eons, coupled with El Nino, a natural climate cycle that’s a temporary warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide," said US climate scientist Jessica Moerman, who is also president of the Evangelical Environmental Network. “This double whammy together is where things get dangerous.”
Swimming to cool off - Ariel Schalit/Copyright 2023 The AP. All rights reserved.
Though El Nino is playing a part, climate change has a bigger footprint in this warmth, Buontempo said.
“There really is no end in sight given new oil and gas reserves are still being opened for exploitation,” Otto said. “If you have more record hot events, there is no respite for humans and nature, no time to recover."
Buontempo said El Nino is likely to get warmer and cause even higher temperatures next year.
From onions to rice, there’s a ‘contagion’ in staple food restrictions. Is climate change to blame?
El Niño is back: Surging temperatures bring extreme weather and threaten lives
“This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
2023 on track to become warmest year on record: Copernicus report
JULIA JACOBO and DANIEL PECK
Wed, 4 October 2023
People enjoy the sunshine while punting on the River Cam in Cambridge, north of London, Sept. 9, 2023, as the late summer heatwave continues.
Wed, 4 October 2023
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
“Absolutely gobsmackingly bananas” is not standard scientific language, but these are not standard times, scientifically.
New data shows average global temperatures in September were not just the hottest ever recorded, but 0.5C above the previous record for the month. They were about 1.8C above temperatures in pre-industrial times, before humans started pumping vast amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The scientist and writer Zeke Hausfather is not prone to hyperbole but was quick to put this into context on social media, saying it was – in his “professional opinion as a climate scientist” – bananas. “It’s hard to overstate just how exceptionally high global temperatures are at the moment,” he said on Bluesky.
Related: ‘Gobsmackingly bananas’: scientists stunned by planet’s record September heat
We’re seeing this in Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology reports that mean temperatures across day and night were even warmer when compared to what we’re used to: 2.43C above the long-term average Australians experienced between 1961 and 1990.
Maximum temperatures – the ones we really need to worry about as we head into summer, when we know heatwaves kill more people than bushfires or other extreme weather events – were 3.38C higher than the long-term average.
The hottest times of the day were particularly ridiculous in southern parts of the continent. In New South Wales, maximum temperatures across September were 5.07C warmer than what we would have expected late last century. Other states were not far behind.
While some set new records, it was not the hottest September ever across the continent – that prize is still held by 2013. But with forest undergrowth lush after three drenched La Niña years, there is plenty to worry about as temperatures rise in the weeks and months ahead.
Bushfires are already burning in three states, including more than 70 in NSW. One of those has destroyed homes on the NSW south coast. We’re not even halfway through spring.
The why of this has been well covered. The simple version is we’re in an El Niño event, which generally makes things hotter. It exacerbates the clear underlying trend of global heating caused by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
I suspect many people may be less across the reasons that we should be optimistic – however cautiously – that humans can get their act together and at least limit the damage from the climate crisis.
Related: The push for nuclear energy in Australia is driven by delay and denial, not evidence | Adam Morton
A report last week by the International Energy Agency – a Paris-based body that was once known for underplaying the rise of renewable energy – makes a case that a change is happening, at least for some technology.
It’s worth a closer look, not least because fossil fuel backers often claim the IEA says the world needs more of what they’re selling. This report – an updated roadmap for how we could keep the global goal of limiting heating to 1.5C within reach – clearly does not say this.
As Carbon Brief has pointed out, it makes three main points. The first is that some important clean energy tech – solar energy, electric cars and battery production – is now being rolled out at a record pace, in line with what is needed to reach global net zero emissions by 2050. Under the IEA’s pathway to zero, solar and EVs could provide one-third of the global emissions cuts needed by 2030.
This tells us that rapid change is possible. In the case of solar, it suggests that it can leapfrog fossil fuels as a primary energy source in the developing world, if influential countries tailor their support in that direction.
The second point is that, more than ever, we have the technology. Two years ago the IEA estimated that the clean technology needed to provide nearly half the emissions reductions across the planet by 2050 was not yet available. That gap has now dropped to 35% as new technology – batteries and electrolysers, for example – has come on. It is likely to continue to fall.
It means the main goal now must be rapid acceleration before 2030. That’s easier said than done, but it’s possible using proven and in most cases affordable strategies. The agency says global renewable energy capacity needs to triple, the pace of energy efficiency improvements needs to double, EVs and heat pump sales need to rise sharply, and methane emissions from fossil fuels – including leaks from coal and gas mines – need to be cut by 75% in that timeframe.
For the clean tech to have the impact that’s required, the approval and development of new fossil fuels needs to stop. This is the third point. It’s consistent with what IEA chief, Fatih Birol, said when the first roadmap was released two years ago.
Related: ‘Staggering’ green growth gives hope for 1.5C, says global energy chief
The IEA now says a concerted expansion of renewable energy could cut global demand for fossil fuels by 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050. As a result, the world does not need new or extended coalmines, or coal plants that do not capture and store their emissions (and no power stations are meaningfully doing this).
Crucially, in an Australian context, it also says there is no justification for approving new oil and gas developments. It argues that continued investment in some oil and gas projects that either already exist or have been approved is not inconsistent with the global net zero goal, but that the transition to clean energy must be carefully sequenced to ensure there is enough energy to avoid price spikes, but not so much that there is a glut of supply.
If properly handled, the IEA expects this would translate to a significant decline in the global gas supply – a 20% drop by 2030 and a nearly 50% cut by 2035.
The implications of this are pretty clear, if not politically popular.
New fossil fuel developments should not be approved without factoring in global climate goals. And governments will need to take a more interventionist role and make science-based calls about which energy projects should go ahead.
Given the evidence, anything less might be described as bananas.
Adam Morton is Guardian Australia’s climate and environment editor
'A death sentence': September was world's hottest on record by an 'extraordinary' margin
Euronews
Wed, 4 October 2023
After a summer of record-breaking heat, the abnormally hot weather continued into September setting a new mark for the level above a normal temperature for the time of year, the European Union's climate change agency reported today.
Last month’s average global temperature was 0.93°C above the 1991-2020 average for September. This is the warmest margin above average for a month in 83 years of records kept by the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“It’s just mind-blowing really,” said Copernicus Director Carlo Buontempo. “Never seen anything like that in any month in our records.”
A woman uses a fan in the courtyard of the Louvre museum, Sept. 7, 2023, in Paris. - Thomas Padilla/Copyright 2023 The AP. All rights reserved.
While July and August had higher temperatures because they are warmer months on the calendar, September had what scientists call the biggest anomaly, or departure from normal. Temperature anomalies are crucial pieces of data in a warming world.
“This is not a fancy weather statistic,” Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto said in an email. “It’s a death sentence for people and ecosystems. It destroys assets, infrastructure, harvest.”
Copernicus calculated the average temperature for September was 16.38°C, which broke the old record set in September 2020 by a whopping half-degree Celsius. This is a huge margin in climate records.
The hot temperatures stretched across the globe. They were chiefly driven by persistent and unusual warmth in the world’s oceans, which didn’t cool off as much in September as normal and have been record-breakingly hot since spring, said Buontempo.
‘Triple whammy’ of extreme heat could make Earth uninhabitable for humans, climate models reveal
October heatwave expected in parts of Europe after countries record hottest ever September
Earth is on track for its hottest year on record, about 1.4°C warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Samantha Burgess, Copernicus’ deputy director.
This past September was 1.75°C warmer than the mid-1800s, Copernicus reported. The world agreed in 2015 to try to limit future warming to 1.5°C warming since pre-industrial times.
The global threshold goal of 1.5°C is for long-term temperature averages, not a single month or year. However, scientists still expressed grave concern at the records being set.
“What we’re seeing right now is the backdrop of rapid global warming at a pace that the Earth has not seen in eons, coupled with El Nino, a natural climate cycle that’s a temporary warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide," said US climate scientist Jessica Moerman, who is also president of the Evangelical Environmental Network. “This double whammy together is where things get dangerous.”
Swimming to cool off - Ariel Schalit/Copyright 2023 The AP. All rights reserved.
Though El Nino is playing a part, climate change has a bigger footprint in this warmth, Buontempo said.
“There really is no end in sight given new oil and gas reserves are still being opened for exploitation,” Otto said. “If you have more record hot events, there is no respite for humans and nature, no time to recover."
Buontempo said El Nino is likely to get warmer and cause even higher temperatures next year.
From onions to rice, there’s a ‘contagion’ in staple food restrictions. Is climate change to blame?
El Niño is back: Surging temperatures bring extreme weather and threaten lives
“This month was, in my professional opinion as a climate scientist, absolutely gobsmackingly bananas,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said on X, formerly known as Twitter.
2023 on track to become warmest year on record: Copernicus report
JULIA JACOBO and DANIEL PECK
Wed, 4 October 2023
People enjoy the sunshine while punting on the River Cam in Cambridge, north of London, Sept. 9, 2023, as the late summer heatwave continues.
(Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images)
The year 2023 is already on track to be the warmest year on record, according to Copernicus, Europe’s climate change service.
The month of September saw several unprecedented temperature anomalies around the world, following the hottest summer ever recorded, according to the monthly climate report released by Copernicus on Wednesday, which analyzes billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world to highlight changes observed in global surface air temperature, sea ice cover and hydrological variables.
MORE: Record-high summer temps give a 'sneak peek' into future warming
Several records were broken "by an extraordinary amount" in September due to never-before-seen high temperatures for that time of year, Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement. The month as a whole was around 1.75 degrees Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit) warmer than the September average for 1850 to 1900, the preindustrial reference period, according to the report.
Now, 2023 is expected to round out the year as the warmest on record globally -- clocking in at about 1.4 C above pre-industrial levels, Burgess said.
PHOTO: FILE - EIRIF forest firefighters work during the extinction of the Tijarafe fire on the Canary Island of La Palma, Spain July 16, 2023. (Borja Suarez/Reuters, FILE)
The number is dangerously close to the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 C (2.7 F) above pre-industrial levels set in the Paris Agreement.
MORE: Earth has experienced its warmest August on record, says NOAA
Average global surface air temperatures in September 2023 measured at 16.38 C, about 61.48 F, nearly 1 degree Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average for September and beating the previous record, set in 2020, by .5 degrees Celsius, according to Copernicus.
The global temperature during September 2023 featured the largest deviation from the average, not just for the month of September, but for any month in the dataset going back to 1940, the researchers said.
Among the continents that experienced warmer-than-usual conditions in September was Europe, which beat its previous record by 1.1 degrees Celsius.
MORE: July poised to be hottest month in recorded history: Experts
Antarctic sea ice extent also remained at a record low level during the month of September. Both the daily and monthly extents reached their lowest annual maxima in the satellite record in September, with the monthly extent 9% below average, according to the report.
Greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño conditions over the equatorial eastern Pacific are likely both playing a role in reaching new global temperature records, models show.
The year 2023 is already on track to be the warmest year on record, according to Copernicus, Europe’s climate change service.
The month of September saw several unprecedented temperature anomalies around the world, following the hottest summer ever recorded, according to the monthly climate report released by Copernicus on Wednesday, which analyzes billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world to highlight changes observed in global surface air temperature, sea ice cover and hydrological variables.
MORE: Record-high summer temps give a 'sneak peek' into future warming
Several records were broken "by an extraordinary amount" in September due to never-before-seen high temperatures for that time of year, Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement. The month as a whole was around 1.75 degrees Celsius (3.2 Fahrenheit) warmer than the September average for 1850 to 1900, the preindustrial reference period, according to the report.
Now, 2023 is expected to round out the year as the warmest on record globally -- clocking in at about 1.4 C above pre-industrial levels, Burgess said.
PHOTO: FILE - EIRIF forest firefighters work during the extinction of the Tijarafe fire on the Canary Island of La Palma, Spain July 16, 2023. (Borja Suarez/Reuters, FILE)
The number is dangerously close to the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 C (2.7 F) above pre-industrial levels set in the Paris Agreement.
MORE: Earth has experienced its warmest August on record, says NOAA
Average global surface air temperatures in September 2023 measured at 16.38 C, about 61.48 F, nearly 1 degree Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average for September and beating the previous record, set in 2020, by .5 degrees Celsius, according to Copernicus.
The global temperature during September 2023 featured the largest deviation from the average, not just for the month of September, but for any month in the dataset going back to 1940, the researchers said.
Among the continents that experienced warmer-than-usual conditions in September was Europe, which beat its previous record by 1.1 degrees Celsius.
MORE: July poised to be hottest month in recorded history: Experts
Antarctic sea ice extent also remained at a record low level during the month of September. Both the daily and monthly extents reached their lowest annual maxima in the satellite record in September, with the monthly extent 9% below average, according to the report.
Greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño conditions over the equatorial eastern Pacific are likely both playing a role in reaching new global temperature records, models show.
STOCK PHOTO: Massive Blue iceberg in Antarctica
(STOCK PHOTO/Getty Images)
With El Niño conditions forecast to strengthen through the end of the year, the annual temperature anomaly for 2023 could follow trends set in Summer 2023 and September 2023, breaking the previous record by a large margin.
Globally, 2023 has already featured the hottest summer on record, multiple hottest months on record, including July and August, and the hottest day recorded on Earth for several days in a row at the beginning of July.
The last time Earth recorded a colder-than-average year was in 1976.
With El Niño conditions forecast to strengthen through the end of the year, the annual temperature anomaly for 2023 could follow trends set in Summer 2023 and September 2023, breaking the previous record by a large margin.
Globally, 2023 has already featured the hottest summer on record, multiple hottest months on record, including July and August, and the hottest day recorded on Earth for several days in a row at the beginning of July.
The last time Earth recorded a colder-than-average year was in 1976.
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