Wednesday, February 28, 2024

'Uncommitted' protest vote in Michigan is a warning Biden cannot ignore

By Sarah Smith
BBC
North America editor in Michigan
Activists from the Listen to Michigan campaign cheered as election results came in

Michigan voters have sent a clear warning to the White House that Joe Biden's support for Israel's war in Gaza could cost him dearly in the presidential election in November.

Activists encouraged people voting in Tuesday's Democratic primary to withhold their votes from President Biden and instead mark the box marked "uncommitted" as a protest. More than 100,000 voters did just that.

The protest vote - while a sharp rebuke - poses no immediate danger to Mr Biden, who still won the contest with 81% of the vote. He's the incumbent president and has no serious challenger from within his party, so he can't lose the race to choose the Democratic candidate.

But what if all the people who withheld their support from him this time don't come out to vote for him in the general election? That could be decisive.

Every vote counts in a key swing state that the US president almost certainly needs to win to have a shot at a second term. In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to Donald Trump by fewer than 11,000 ballots.

Mr Trump, following his own victory in the Republican primary, declared: "We win Michigan, we win the whole thing."

This Midwestern state is home to America's largest Arab-American population, most of whom are deeply upset by the devastation they see in Gaza.

President Biden can't afford to ignore their demands that he call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza - rather than the temporary one that the White House has been pushing for. He did not mention the war or the protest vote in his statement following his victory, but his campaign team will have surely heard the message loud and clear.

I asked Leyla Elabed, manager of the "Listen to Michigan" campaign, if she was worried she might be inadvertently helping Donald Trump back into the White House by damaging Joe Biden's electability.

"If Biden doesn't act now, and listen to the 80% of Democrats and the 66% of Americans that want a permanent ceasefire right now," she told me before Tuesday's primary, "it is going to be Biden, his administration and the Democratic Party that are going to be accountable for handing the White House to Trump in November."

President Biden has offered some recent criticism of Israel's conduct of the war, describing it as "over the top". He appears to be becoming increasingly frustrated with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and has warned that Israel is at risk of losing international support.

His administration is strongly advocating for a temporary ceasefire over the Muslim holiday of Ramadan that would include an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. But Mr Biden says it's not the right time to call for the permanent ceasefire his detractors in Michigan are demanding.


Biden's support for Israel has lost him votes among Arab Americans


Dissatisfaction on this issue goes beyond the Arab-American and Muslim communities, however. Many younger voters - another key part of the electoral coalition that voted for the oldest-ever US president - are also angry. Regular protests are taking place on college campuses across America.

In Detroit, the views of students from the Wayne State College Democrats highlighted President Biden's vulnerability on the issue.

Karon Heath, 18, an anthropology and law major, said she was enraged that the White House had not been advocating for a permanent ceasefire despite months of war and "heartbreaking" scenes in Gaza.

Taylor James, 22, who is studying economics, believes the US - Israel's strongest international ally - should stop sending aid to Mr Netanyahu's government.

But Cassidy Collins did vote for Mr Biden on Tuesday. She thinks he needs all the support he can get to stop Mr Trump from returning to the White House. She described that prospect as "one of the most scariest things I could possibly imagine".

Each of these students said they wished Mr Biden had stood aside and allowed another candidate to get the Democratic nomination this year. They think that at 81, he is too old to understand the concerns of their generation, and that he hasn't been aggressive enough on climate change or on forgiving student loan debt.

The complaints from these young people - each of them a signed-up Democrat - were different to the concerns I tend to hear from undecided voters who are considering backing Donald Trump. Those moderate voters - whom I've met in the wine bars of Atlanta, the sandwich shops of Philadelphia and the rural outposts of Iowa - often help decide who wins the White House.

They've told me they felt much better off when Donald Trump was in office. And they're not convinced yet by the Biden administration's attempts to persuade Americans the economy is improving.

Nearly every voter also cites the record levels of illegal immigration at the southern border.

It's a vulnerability that explains why Mr Biden is about to tackle the immigration issue head on with a high-profile visit to the border on Thursday. Donald Trump will also be there on the same day to argue that Mr Biden's policies are to blame for the crisis.

The White House hopes to undermine Mr Trump on his signature issue by highlighting that the former president recently got his supporters in Congress to defeat a bipartisan bill that would have provided billions of dollars to beef up border security.

Mr Biden may soon introduce a presidential executive order aimed at reducing the number of asylum seekers entering the US. Yet it could be too late to convince voters he can be trusted on this issue.

The president is simultaneously under attack from the right by voters who blame him for allowing unprecedented numbers of migrants to enter the US - and on the left by disappointed Democrats who are appalled by his strong support for Israel.

The president needs to address both issues - and to find a way to appeal to the middle, while also motivating his base. It will not be an easy strategy to pull off.

None of the dozens of Michiganders protesting over the war in Gaza that I spoke to this week said they were planning to vote for Mr Trump.

But if the deeply felt anger towards Mr Biden in parts of Michigan leads thousands of voters to stay home in November, or to cast their ballot for a third party candidate, that could still cost Mr Biden the White House.

Uncommitted Michigan Campaign Shows Arab Americans' Disapproval of Biden Over Gaza

More than 100,000 Michigan residents voted “uncommitted” in the presidential primary.


TEEN VOGUE
BY FEBRUARY 28, 2024

ANADOLU/GETTY IMAGES

President Joe Biden just received a loud and clear message from Michigan's Arab American community over his handling of Israel’s war in Gaza. In Tuesday's presidential primary, more than 100,000 Michigan registered Democrats voted "uncommitted,” according to the Associated Press. Though Biden and Donald Trump won the Michigan primaries outright, leaders with the Listen to Michigan initiative said in a memo this week that organizing a protest vote, “ignited a vital conversation about the values we hold dear as Democrats, Americans, and people of conscience across faith and backgrounds.”

“This is a grassroots effort. We built a coalition that is multigenerational, so it includes a lot of our young community leaders, community activists, and just young people who are frustrated and discontent[ed], you know — have a feeling of discontent and betrayal with the current Biden administration's lack of action around Israel's aggression against Palestinians in Gaza,” Listen to Michigan’s campaign manager Layla Elabed, 34, told Teen Vogue.

An estimated 29,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. In the U.S. and abroad, young Americans in particular have put mounting pressure on the Biden administration to demand a ceasefire, organizing protests and letters against his position on the war. A New York Times/Siena poll from December found that 72% of registered voters between the ages of 18-29 disapproved of Biden’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“We've had a lot of young volunteers on college campuses that have either helped us host rallies and get student organizations involved or who have kind of picked up the Listen to Michigan ‘uncommitted’ campaign themselves and have ran their own initiatives on their own college campuses to get their student bodies to go uncommitted in today's presidential primary,” she said.

According to the Listen to Michigan campaign, “Student organizers are leading efforts to spread Listen to Michigan's message on campuses such as The University of Michigan, Michigan State, Wayne State, Kzoo College, Western, and Eastern.”

Michigan is home to a large number of Arab and Muslim Americans. U.S. Census Bureau data from 2020 shows that people of Middle Eastern or North African ancestry account for the majority of people (54.5%) in the city of Dearborn, specifically. According to a report from Emgage, which works to turn out Muslim voters nationwide, 145,620 Muslim voters in Michigan cast ballots in the 2020 general election. Biden won Michigan by 154,188 votes in 2020.

The Listen to Michigan campaign was based on the premise that if enough Democratic voters abstained from voting for Biden in Tuesday’s primary, it would signal that the president should reconsider his support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza.

In a Monday memo, Elabed said the group was hoping at least 10,000 Michigan Democrats would vote uncommitted. “10,000 votes is about the same as Donald Trump’s margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden must support a lasting ceasefire and stop funding Israel’s war in Gaza. This is not a messaging problem, it is a bombs problem,” she wrote.

Uncommitted: 101,000 in Michigan tell Biden, “Ceasefire now!”

February 28, 2024 
PEOPLES WORLD

Fatima Salman of Bloomfield Hills, Mich., one of the Listen to Michigan grassroots organizers, applauds as she listens to Detroit City Councilperson Gaby Santiago-Romero speaking on stage during Listen to Michigan's election night gathering in Dearborn on Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024. | Junfu Han / Detroit Free Press via AP


DETROIT—The big takeaway in the Michigan primaries last night was that tens of thousands of voters went to the polls and cast their votes for Uncommitted, the path crafted by a coalition demanding that President Biden come out for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

The “Listen to Michigan” operation mobilized 101,000 voters to cast their votes for a ceasefire by voting for Uncommitted instead of voting for President Biden in the Democratic primary.

Pundits who tried to pay down the importance of that vote by tens of thousands of Arab American, young, African American and other voters noted that Michiganders often cast votes for Uncommitted in primaries when they want to protest policies of incumbents. They noted that it even happened when Barack Obama was on the primary ballot in Michigan. The Uncommitted vote when Obama was the Democratic candidate for president was only 10,000, however, a number dwarfed by the 101,000 who voted that way this time. Trump won his election in Michigan in 2016 by only 10,000 votes.

The implications cannot possibly be lost on a Biden Administration that is associated with total support of Israel’s genocidal polies in Gaza. The problems they will have go well beyond the large Arab American communities in Michigan.

All night on Tuesday going into Wednesday social media was abuzz with thousands of young people who lived in states other than Michigan anxiously watching, reporting on and celebrating the Uncommitted totals as they rose through the night. Many of those young people live in battleground or swing states.
While enjoying an ice cream cone with comedian Seth Meyers on Monday, President Joe Biden said he believes a temporary ceasefire deal could come as early as next Monday. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, however, announced it is still moving ahead with plans to attack Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians have sought refuge. | via YouTube

Democratic Rep. Ro Khana of California, a leader among progressive Democrats and a supporter of an immediate ceasefire, who was in Michigan last night, said that there must be a permanent ceasefire by Israel and that he expected the Biden administration to listen. “Even if they change course, however, it will not automatically bring everyone back into the fold,” he warned, “There will have to be a period of healing before some people come back into the Biden camp.”

There is talk that Biden is trying to negotiate a “temporary” ceasefire contingent upon freeing the remainder of the hostages but that is not enough, according to leaders of Listen to Michigan who insist that a ceasefire by Israel must be permanent if the genocide in Gaza is to stop.

Thus far the administration has not talked about cutting off the U.S. arms that Israel is using to slaughter the people of Gaza. The anger by opponents of the administration’s policy in the Mideast is palpable and they want to see a total, unequivocal end to U.S. backing of policies that have oppressed the Palestinian people for many decades, including the illegal settling of occupied territories by right wing Israeli settlers who have been murdering Palestinians.

In some of the communities with large numbers of Arab American voters last night the Uncommitted vote was in the neighborhood of 60 percent and even higher. In two congressional districts that include parts of Wayne County the Uncommitted vote was high enough to insure that uncommitted delegates will go to the Democratic Party convention in Chicago this year. Michigan rules say delegates are allotted whenever totals exceed 15 percent in a given congressional district.

Another practical reason for the Biden administration to reverse its policy in Gaza is that it does not want to see huge protests at the Democratic Party convention in Chicago this year. They do not want large numbers of Arab Americans who live in Chicago, Michigan and elsewhere to show up with young people and other anti-war protesters. Historical and even personal memories of the bitter protests against the war in Vietnam and the ensuing police riots at a Chicago Democratic convention will never be forgotten and the party wants nothing like that to ever happen again.

At first glance, it would seem that Republican front-runner Donald Trump coasted to victory in his party’s Michigan primary on February 27. And he did. But the voting also carried danger signals for him with at least a quarter of the vote going to Nikki Haley. Most calculations have it that Trump cannot afford to lose more than five percent of the vote from Republicans if he is to win in November.

Biden, on the other hand, garnered a much large percentage of support from Democrats than Trump did from Republicans, That was true also in the South Carolina primaries.

The leaders of the Uncommitted campaign set a goal of getting 10,000 votes. The “Listen to Michigan” Uncommitted delegate campaigners garnered 100,960–ten times their goal.

The 10,000 number the ceasefire supporters targeted represents Trump’s 2016 0.2% victory margin in Michigan over Democrat Hillary Clinton. For comparison, Biden beat Trump by 3% and 154,000 votes in Michigan in 2020.

Claimed he’d win by 80 points

For Trump, it was his radio prediction he’d beat his last remaining active foe, former Gov. Nikki Haley, R-S.C. “by 80 points or something like that.” He didn’t. With 98% of the Republican ballots counted, Trump had 68.2% of the vote, and Haley had 26.5%.

With 98% of Democratic primary ballots counted, Biden had 617,728 votes (81.1%) and uncommitted had 100,960 (13.3%). In Detroit and Wayne County, home to much of Michigan’s 200,000-person Arab-American community—Uncommitted led Biden 78%-17%.

Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., who represents Detroit and who is the first Palestinian-American in Congress, said the combination of the Uncommitted vote and a poll the week before indicating 74% of Michigan Democrats oppose Biden’s continuing one-sided military aid to Israel shows he has real problems he has to face in his reelection campaign. Tlaib voted Uncommitted.

“When 74% of Democrats in Michigan support a cease-fire yet President Biden is not hearing us, this is the way we can use our democracy to say, ‘Listen, listen to Michigan’,” Tlaib told the Associated Press

.
Trump won another primary, but as in previous states, he was carried to victory by his narrow extreme right-wing base. It’s not clear that this is force large enough to guarantee a win in the general election. Here, he is seen campaigning in Waterford Township, Mich., on Feb. 17. | AP

“It is not lost on me that this president has softened his language and begun to recognize Palestinian suffering,” the mayor of Dearborn said. “But what is not enough is lip service. What we need is a withdrawal of support” for Israel, Mayor Abdullah Hammoud told AP. His city is the center of Michigan’s Arab American community. “What’s most important is to understand that the White House is listening.”

Popular Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a national co-chair for Biden, had predicted “a sizable” vote for Uncommitted delegates, though she declined to put a number on it. She believes those voters, however dismayed by the war on Gaza and Biden’s stand, will come back to him.

“At the end of the day, I am advocating that people cast an affirmative vote for Joe Biden because anything other than that makes it more likely we see a second Trump term and that’s bad for all the communities,” she told AP.

The Republican primary was a “beauty contest,” to the extent that the party convention later in the week will pick actual delegates—assuming the state GOP overcomes its chaos and Trumpites-vs-business infighting and holds only one convention, not two in separate cities with separate state chairs. So neither Trump nor Haley campaigned much in Michigan.

Trump ran as a virtual incumbent and with a record as a white supremacist, xenophobe and misogynist, who also faces four upcoming trials and 91 counts in state and federal courts. His first criminal trial starts March 25 in New York. Others would be in D.C., Georgia and Florida.

Trump crowed about his win and used his speech to again criticize United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, calling him “stupid.” He falsely claimed. “the auto workers are all in my camp.”

That is not expected to go over well with members happy with record gains made under Fain’s leadership. Biden also made history by being the first president ever to walk the picket line with the auto workers in their recent historic strike

At their legislative conference just weeks ago, the Auto Workers’ new and much more activist board, and conference delegates, endorsed and cheered Biden, who spoke. The endorsement from Fain, the union’s first-ever popularly elected president, was enthusiastic.


CONTRIBUTORS

Mark Gruenberg
Award-winning journalist Mark Gruenberg is head of the Washington, D.C., bureau of People's World. He is also the editor of the union news service Press Associates Inc. (PAI). Known for his reporting skills, sharp wit, and voluminous knowledge of history, Mark is a compassionate interviewer but tough when going after big corporations and their billionaire owners.

John Wojcik
John Wojcik is Editor-in-Chief of People's World. He joined the staff as Labor Editor in May 2007 after working as a union meat cutter in northern New Jersey. There, he served as a shop steward and a member of a UFCW contract negotiating committee. In the 1970s and '80s, he was a political action reporter for the Daily World, this newspaper's predecessor, and was active in electoral politics in Brooklyn, New York.

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