(Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist party is leading exit polls in a regional election in Catalonia in a vote that could complicate his ability to govern in Madrid.

The Socialists led by Salvador Illa are set to win 37 to 40 seats, according to the exit poll published by TV3, the Catalan public TV broadcaster. The separatist group Junts is set to win 33 to 36 seats, while ERC, the leftist pro-independence party that currently governs the region, is set to get 24 to 27 seats.

The winner would need 68 seats to get an absolute majority in the parliament, meaning a round of negotiations to form a coalition will be likely. 

A win by the Socialists would represent an endorsement of Sanchez’s strategy in Catalonia of trying to tamp down the pro-separatist push by offering concessions, including amnesty for those involved in an illegal independence referendum in 2017. 

But a strong showing by the Socialists could also spell trouble for Sanchez’s government, which relies on both the main separatist groups to pass legislation. If a Socialist victory in Catalonia leads to either the Junts or the ERC pulling support for the Socialists in Madrid, it could cause legislative deadlock and potentially a new national election.


Even if the pro-independence bloc comes out ahead, it is far from certain that they will strike a deal given the animosity between Carles Puigdemont, the leader of the Junts, and ERC chief Pere Aragones. After the two parties formed a coalition in 2021, Junts stepped away from it, sending the region on a path to Sunday’s snap election.

A repeat vote may be a likely scenario, according to experts and party insiders. That won’t be good for Catalonia, it won’t solve any of the fundamental problems facing Spain or Sanchez, but it might keep him on the high wire for another few months at least.

Public transport was disrupted in part of Catalonia on Sunday due to problems in the regional train network, which is run by the central government. The two leading pro-independence parties demanded that voting hours be extended in case people failed to make it to the ballot boxes, but the national electoral board dismissed the requests, leaving it to local boards to decide.

Turnout was at 45.8% at 6 p.m., compared with 45.6% at the same time in the previous regional election in 2021, when restrictions were in place to address the effects of the Covid pandemic. 

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Catalan separatists set to lose majority in

Spain’s regional elections as pro-union party

picks up seats




By — Joseph Wilson, Associated Press
 May 12, 2024 6

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Separatist parties are in danger of losing their decade-long hold of power in Spain’s northeastern Catalonia region after the pro-union Socialist Party won the most votes in an election Sunday.

The four pro-independence parties, led by the Together party of former regional president Carles Puigdemont, were set to get a total of 61 seats, according to a near-complete count of the ballots. That is short of the key figure of 68 seats needed for a majority in the chamber.

READ MORE: Catalan separatists reject amnesty bill, highlighting the fragility of Spain’s government

The Socialists led by former health minister Salvador Illa savored a historic victory in a Catalan election, claiming 42 seats, up from 33 in 2021, when they also barely won the most votes but were unable to form a government. It was the first time the Socialists led a Catalan election in both votes and seats won.

“Catalonia has decided to open a new era,” Illa told his thrilled supporters at his party headquarters. “Catalan voters have decided that the Socialist Party will lead this new era, and it is my intention to become Catalonia’s next president.”

The Socialists will need to earn the backing of other parties to put Illa in charge. Dealmaking in the coming days, maybe weeks, will be key to forming a government. Neither a hung parliament nor a new election is out of the question.

But there is a path for Illa to reach the goal of 68 seats. The Socialists are already in a coalition government in Madrid with the Sumar party, which now has six seats in the Catalan parliament. But the hard part will be wooing over a leftist party from the separatist camp.

Regardless of those negotiations, Illa’s surge should bode well for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the Socialists before European Parliament elections next month.

Separatists have held the regional government in Barcelona since 2012 and had won majorities in four consecutive regional elections. But polling and a national election in July showed that support for secession has shrunk since Puigdemont led an illegal — and futile — breakaway bid in 2017.

“The candidacy that I led had a good result, we are the only pro-independence force to increase in votes and seats, and we assume the responsibility that entails,” Puigdemont said. “But that is not enough to compensate the losses of the other separatists parties.”

Sánchez’s Socialists have spent major political capital since then in reducing tensions in Catalonia, including pardoning jailed high-profile separatists and pushing through an amnesty for Puigdemont and hundreds more.

The Socialist win “is due to many factors that will have to analyze, but one of those factors were the policies and leadership of the government of Spain and Pedro Sánchez,” Illa said.

The Together party of Puigdemont restored its leadership of the separatist camp with 35 seats, up from 32 three years ago. He fled Spain after the 2017 secession attempt and has run his campaign from southern France on the pledge that he will return home when lawmakers convene to elect a new regional president in the coming weeks.

Puigdemont’s escape from Spain became the stuff of legend among his followers, and a huge source of embarrassment for Spain’s law enforcement. He recently denied during the campaign that he had hidden himself in a car trunk to avoid detection while he slipped across the border during a legal crackdown that landed several of his cohorts in prison until Sánchez’s government pardoned them.

The Republican Left of Catalonia of sitting regional president Pere Aragonès plummeted to 20 seats from 33. But the leftist separatist party, which has governed in minority during a record drought, could be key to Illa’s hopes, although that would require it to break with the pro-secession bloc.

READ MORE: Barcelona may need water shipped in during worst drought on record in Catalonia, authorities say

The Popular Party, which is the largest party in Spain’s national parliament where it leads the opposition, surged to 15 seats from three.

The far-right, Spanish ultra-nationalist party Vox held its 11 seats, while on the other end of the spectrum, the far-left, pro-secession Cup took four, down from nine.

An upstart pro-secession, far-right party called Catalan Alliance, which rails against unauthorized immigration as well as the Spanish state, will enter the chamber for the first time with two seats.

“We have seen that Catalonia is not immune to the reactionary, far-right wave sweeping Europe,” Aragonés, the outgoing regional president, said.

The crippling drought, not independence, is currently the leading concern of Catalans, according to the most recent survey by Catalonia’s public opinion office.

The opinion office said that 50 percent of Catalans are against independence while 42 percent are for it, meaning support for it has dipped to 2012 levels. When Puigdemont left in 2017, 49 percent favored independence and 43 percent were against.

More than 3.1 million voted, with participation at 57 percent. Potentially thousands of voters had trouble reaching their polling stations when Catalonia’s commuter rail service had to shut down several train lines after what officials said was the robbery of copper cables from a train installation near Barcelona.