Look to Asia for the Big Nuclear Renaissance

By Alex Kimani - Oct 15, 2024

• Asia, and not the West, is the true epicenter of the ongoing nuclear energy renaissance.
• Asia is home to 145 operable nuclear power reactors, with 45 under construction.
• Over the past decade, 70 new reactors were connected to the grid globally, 37 of which were in China.

After decades of being treated as the black sheep of the energy universe, nuclear energy is enjoying an unusual renaissance thanks to the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as high power demand.  

Back in March, a total of 34  countries, including the U.S.,pledged to install more nuclear capacity in a bid to lower their reliance on fossil fuels. In a highly unusual move, the U.S. federal government has agreed to provide a $1.5 billion loan to restart a nuclear power plant in southwestern Michigan, abandoning earlier plans to decommission it in what will become the first ever nuclear plant in the U.S. to be revived after abandonment. According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) report Electricity 2024, nuclear power generation is forecast to reach an all-time high globally in 2025, exceeding the previous record set in 2021.

However, Asia, and not the West, is the true epicenter of the ongoing nuclear energy renaissance.

According to Swiss-Swedish energy giant ABB, nuclear power is likely to experience a resurgence in Asia as the sector shakes off its negative reputation and public disapproval as well as countries look to replace fossil fuels with low-carbon fuels.

"There are policies or a history or a connotation that has not always been favorable for nuclear. In parts of Europe, they had stopped investing decades ago, but now with the impact of the war in Ukraine, there is investment and interest again because it is 100% carbon free, whereas some of the other renewables are low carbon but not no carbon," said Karen Bomber, chief commercial officer at ABB Energy Industries.

ABB Energy’s sentiments are backed by available data. According to the World Nuclear Association, Asia is home to 145 operable nuclear power reactors, with 45 under construction and many more having been proposed. Indeed, about three-quarters of nuclear reactors under construction worldwide are located in Asia. 

Not surprisingly, the greatest growth in nuclear generation is expected in China. Currently, the country has 56 operable reactors (54.4 GWe net); 30 under construction (34.7 GWe gross) and 37 planned (39.9 GWe gross). Over the past decade, 70 new reactors were connected to the grid globally, 37 of which were in China. The biggest motivation for the rapid buildout of nuclear reactors in China is to lower generation by coal-fired plants.

Japan is Asia’s second largest nuclear power with 33 operable reactors (31.7 GWe), though many of these have been temporarily shut down. However, only 2 reactors are currently under construction (2.8 GWe) and just 1 planned (1.4 GWe). Japan had big nuclear ambitions prior to the infamous Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, with nuclear energy expected to generate more than 40% of the country’s electricity by 2017 and plans to double nuclear capacity (to 90 GWe) and nuclear share by 2050. However, these plans were shelved and now the island nation aims to generate just 20% of its electricity from nuclear by 2030, from a depleted fleet.

India is home to 23 operable reactors (7.4 GWe); 7 under construction (5.9 GWe) and 12 (8.4 GWe) expected to come online. According to wWNA, India has already achieved independence in its nuclear fuel cycle, thanks to a commitment by the Indian government to grow its nuclear power capacity as part of its massive infrastructure development programme. India is a pioneer in developing the thorium fuel cycle. Thorium is now being billed as the 'great green hope' of clean energy production that produces less waste and more energy than uranium, is meltdown-proof, has no weapons-grade by-products and can even consume legacy plutonium stockpiles. There is more than twice thorium in the earth’s crust than uranium: in India, thorium is 4x more abundant than uranium. Thorium can also be extracted from sea water just like uranium, making it almost inexhaustible.

South Korea has 26 operable reactors (25.8 GWe) with 2 reactors under construction (2.7 GWe). Currently, nuclear energy accounts for 25% of South Korea’s electricity generation. However, that is set to increase: President Yoon Suk-yeol scrapped the previous administration’s policy to phase out nuclear energy by 2045 and instead set a target to raise its slice in the country’s generation mix to 30% by 2023. South Korea exports its nuclear technology widely.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is home to 6 operable reactors (3.3 GWe) with 1 planned (1.2 GWe). Pakistan generates ~7% of its electricity from nuclear power. While that looks miniscule compared to its peers, expansion of the country’s nuclear capacity has long been a central element of Pakistan’s energy policy. A decade ago, the government set a target to develop 8.9 GWe of nuclear capacity at ten sites by 2030.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com