What’s Really Going On In the South China Sea Between the Philippines and China

by Tina Antonis Posted onNovember 12, 2024

Maritime clashes between the Philippines and China had been mostly over the Philippines’ military outpost, BRP (BRP – Barko ng Republika ng Pilipinas, which translates to “Ship of the Republic of the Philippines” – the ship prefix for the Philippines) Sierra Madre, in the Spratly Islands, which is disputed by Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan (a province of China, as recognized by the United Nations’ Resolution No. 2758), and Vietnam. The BRP Sierra Madre was intentionally run aground on a reef near the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Islands, in 1997, so that the Philippines could stake their territorial claim.

The WWII-era ship is rusted out and on its way to disintegrating.  In December 2023, the Philippines allocated funds to replace the ship with a permanent structure. Coincidentally, in September 2023, Blake Herzinger, a research fellow at the United States Studies Centre of the University of Sydney, penned an article titled, “It’s Time to Build Combined Forward Operating Base Sierra Madre.” This outpost would be “manned by combined rotational forces from both the Philippines and the U.S. Marine Corps,” according to Herzinger.  In it, he admits that doing so, “would be a provocative move, and it would not be without significant risk.”

In October 2023, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFU) admitted that their resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre were carrying materials that were used in the maintenance and repair of the ship. China had been accusing the Philippines of using its resupply missions to send “illegal building materials” to reinforce the dilapidated ship on several occasions.  In June of this year, The Financial Times revealed that the Philippines had “secretly” reinforced the BRP Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal.

On March 5, 2024, in response to an incident at the Second Thomas Shoal, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that “Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft, including those of its coast guard, anywhere in the South China Sea.”  At the time, the crash was “not the time or reason to invoke a Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States,” according to Philippine President Bongbong Marcos. Invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty by the Philippines could lead to an armed conflict between China and the U.S. Military.

Recently, these clashes have been occurring at the Sabina Shoal, another disputed atoll in the Spratly Islands. In May, the Philippines claimed that China was carrying out “small-scale reclamation” and anchored the BRP Teresa Magbanua at Sabina Shoal to “catch and document the dumping of crushed corals over the sandbars” (China denied this).  The Philippines had been using the BRP Teresa Magbanua as a staging area for their resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal. A new Philippine Coast Guard vessel was sent to Sabina Shoal, according to Jonathan Malaya, the spokesperson for the National Security Council of the Philippines, on September 26. However, he declined to comment on the specifics of their intentions or plans, citing operational security concerns.

Behind the scenes, an information operation has been going on. Information operations, also known as influence operations, involve spreading misleading information and obtaining tactical knowledge about competitors to get the upper hand.  Think tank representatives, financed by the US government and corporate sponsors, have been working with the Philippine Coast Guard on “assertive transparency,” or what the Philippines calls their “transparency initiative.”  With grants from the U.S. State Department, between 2022 and 2024, the Stratbase ADR Institute held a series of roundtable discussions highlighting the importance of multilateral cooperation and strategic alliances in addressing regional “security challenges” and “public diplomacy,” or the act of “influencing foreign publics” to support “U.S. foreign policy goals.”

On January 5th, 2023, Stratbase, together with the US Embassy in the Philippines, hosted a town hall discussion where experts and scholars shared their assessments and recommendations on the various Indo-Pacific strategies and the foreign policy of Marcos Jr.’s administration.  It was here that Ray Powell introduced his “Project Myoushu” strategy, which was inspired by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).  CSIS receives funding from the U.S. government and other governments allied with the U.S., non-governmental and nonprofit organizations (NGOs & NPOs), defense contractors and other corporate donors.  Another such event occurred on March 8th, 2023, where Ray Powell gave a presentation in which he described using “independent analysts, storytellers, influencers, media, and embedded journalists.”

Powell, a veteran of the U.S. Air Force and a former Defense Attaché (the Defense Attaché System is part of the Defense Intelligence Agency, the “Pentagon’s top spy agency”), is the team lead of SeaLight, at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation (GKC).  The creation of Stanford University’s GKC was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR), an organization within the Department of Defense.  Stanford University has contracts with the U.S. government.  The center’s goal is to assist the U.S. government in rethinking how it approaches “national security” matters.

The “transparency initiative” tactic highlights China’s “gray zone activities”, in the South China Sea.  One aspect used is embedding journalists on these resupply missions.  The original purpose of embedding was to control journalists, according to Helen Benedict, a professor at the Columbia Journalism School.  Citing award-winning Australian journalist Phillip Knightley’s book The First Casualty: The War Correspondent as Hero and Myth-Maker from the Crimea to Iraq which describes how the U.S. government invented embedded journalism in response to critical coverage of the Vietnam War.  As civilian casualties in Afghanistan reached 5,000, the Pentagon sought a media strategy that would bring attention back to the military’s role in the war, especially the role played by ordinary American service members.  This would require bringing war correspondents on side.

Another aspect of this “transparency initiative” is using civil society organizations, such as the Atin Ito Coalition, led by Rafaela David and Edicio dela Torre, to draw attention to the South China Sea.  Rafaela is also the executive director of the Center for Youth Advocacy and Networking (CYAN).  CYAN has been financed by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), which gets the majority of its funding from the U.S. Congress.  With its origins dating back to the late 1960s, when the Central Intelligence Agency faced criticism for secretly supporting activists and opposition groups in nations that appeared to be leaning closer to the Soviet Union. Following the revelation of those CIA plots, the agency faced criticism for what some perceived to be devious manipulation of sovereign states. Congress established the NED in 1983 after years of discussion about whether and how the financing should continue.

Edicio dela Torre is the current President and Vice Chairperson of the Philippine Rural Reconstruction Movement (PRRM).  The PRRM was started in 1952 by Chinese rural education advocate Y. C. James Yen with financial assistance from the United States and the Rockefeller family.  In 1983, Yen was awarded the People to People Eisenhower Medallion.  The People-to-People Program was initiated by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, with initial connections to the U.S. government through the United States Information Agency (USIA).  The USIA’s public diplomacy activities were ultimately transferred to the U.S. Department of State, while its propaganda operations were transferred to the Broadcasting Board of Governors, which has since become the U.S. Agency for Global Media.  In the 1950s, during the Hukbalahap Rebellion, the CIA covertly funded the PRRM through front organizations such as the Asia Foundation (formerly the Committee for a Free Asia) and the Catherwood Foundation.

On September 15th, Powell appeared on 60 Minutes, along with the Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro, and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Romeo Brawner Jr.  In the 60 Minutes episode, Teodoro refused to confirm if the Typhon missile launcher – a mid-range missile system capable of reaching mainland China – would be permanently stationed in the Philippines. Three days later, Philippine army spokesperson, Colonel Louie Dema-ala, said training was ongoing, and it was up to Philippine authorities and the United States Army Pacific Command (USARPAC) to decide how long the missile system would stay.  Presently, the Typhon is situated in the Taiwan Strait and faces the South China Sea on the northern island of Luzon. In early September, the U.S. announced that it wants to deploy another Typhon missile launcher “around Japan’s southwestern islands, which are near Taiwan”.  While the U.S. claims that these missile launchers are to “strengthen deterrence”, their deployment has only provoked tensions in the area.

While 60 Minutes did state that “in 2016, an international tribunal at The Hague ruled the Philippines has exclusive economic rights in a 200-mile zone that includes Sabina Shoal” and that “China does not recognize the ruling”, their statements were misleading.  The South China Sea Arbitration did not rule on sovereignty, and China does not recognize it because the Arbitral Tribunal lacked jurisdiction. “The Arbitral Tribunal violated the principle of state consent, exercised its jurisdiction ultra vires and rendered an award in disregard of the law. This is a grave violation of UNCLOS and general international law, Wang said.” The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is an international treaty that establishes a legal framework for all marine and maritime activities.  The Permanent Court of Arbitration is not an agency of the United Nations. The PCA rents space in the same building as the UN’s International Court of Justice.  A Congressional Research Service report, dated August 2023, stated that the U.S. has not declared its position regarding sovereignty over any of the geographical elements that comprise the South China Sea.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates that about 80% of global trade is carried out by sea, both in terms of volume and value. Of that amount, 60% of marine trade travels through Asia, with approximately one-third of all shipping occurring in the South China Sea. Because the Strait of Malacca connects the South China Sea and, consequently, the Pacific and Indian oceans, China, Taiwan (the United States does not officially support Taiwan’s independence), Japan, and South Korea depend heavily on its waters. China’s economic security is intimately linked to the South China Sea, as the country has the second-largest economy globally and more than 60% of its trade is conducted by water. If the U.S. were to attempt to enforce a blockade in the South China Sea, they would risk retaliation from China.

A war with China would not only interrupt international trade, it’s highly probable that the United States would lose due to China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Anti-Access refers to any action, activity, or capacity, usually long-range, that is intended to prevent an advancing military force from accessing an operational area. Area denial is described as any action, activity, or capability, usually short-range, that is intended to limit an adversary force’s freedom of action inside an operational area. Long-range artillery and rocket weapons, air defenses, littoral anti-ship capabilities, and layered, integrated long-range precision-strike systems are all part of the threat A2/AD defense architecture.  China’s advanced A2/AD system includes missiles and hypersonic weapons, which the US lacks defense against. China is also developing microwave-photonic radar systems to track incoming hypersonic missiles, potentially enabling defense against powerful militaries’ latest offensive technologies.

The Philippines, has succeeded in garnering support from Western countries through military assistance, funds to upgrade military bases and infrastructure, modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines, defense agreements with at least 18 countries (minilateralism), joint military exercises in the South China Sea, and the addition of four new EDCA (under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, American military personnel, planes, and ships may station themselves periodically in the Philippines at predetermined sites) – three in north Luzon facing Taiwan and one in Palawan facing the South China Sea. China sees this “coalition of the willing” as undermining “regional security and peace.”  The Philippines should seek détente with China and practice quiet diplomacy, as their “transparency initiative” has only escalated tensions in the South China Sea, instead of risking World War III.

Tina Antonis is an independent researcher and blogger.  An avid reader of Antiwar.com, she has been blogging about U.S. foreign policy on her WordPress since 2017.  She can be found on Twitter or contacted by email at ms_cat71@aol.com.